FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $754.75

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.69 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $754.75 UNDERWATER $9.25 (1.2% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.69 (banked floor $692.99) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$19,414/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$58,290	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,707/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$19,414/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $693.69 (probe: $740C 14d) still earns $6,094/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$617

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$693.69 → $692.99

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 77 (live) · RSI 66 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 58 · %B 83 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $791.99 (+5%) · daily UBB $759.67 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $693.69 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $758 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $758)

70%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$1,776

Income / mo

$26,640

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.09/sh now → $2.18 mid-life (likely $2.68–$5.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,163 simulated challenges: the $758 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $761 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$764	31 Jul 2026	15d left	+$2.94/sh	+$3,533 cycle +$5,309 [+$2,265…+$3,395] · 97% credit	76% surv 65%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$758	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$1.14/sh	+$1,363 cycle +$3,139 [+$858…+$1,326] · 97% credit	67% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$759	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.44/sh	+$533 cycle +$2,309 [-$298…+$420] · 62% credit	70% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$772	31 Jul 2026	15d left	+$0.01/sh	+$7 cycle +$1,783 [-$2,400…-$379] · 7% credit	84% surv 81%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$778	31 Jul 2026	15d left	-$1.20/sh	-$1,445 cycle +$331 [-$4,403…-$1,943]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $1,776 debit $1,445 (81% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$331 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,346/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $760 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $760)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,032

Income / mo

$15,480

Buyback gross: $3.09/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $2.46–$4.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 798 simulated challenges: the $760 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $762 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$766	31 Jul 2026	15d left	+$2.88/sh	+$3,454 cycle +$4,486 [+$2,459…+$3,412] · 99% credit	76% surv 65%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$760	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$1.10/sh	+$1,321 cycle +$2,353 [+$942…+$1,317] · 98% credit	67% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.41/sh	+$491 cycle +$1,523 [-$175…+$442] · 66% credit	70% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$773	31 Jul 2026	15d left	+$0.23/sh	+$282 cycle +$1,314 [-$1,581…+$83] · 30% credit	83% surv 79%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$777	31 Jul 2026	15d left	-$0.74/sh	-$887 cycle +$145 [-$3,072…-$1,136]	88% surv 86%
budget: banked $1,032 debit $887 (86% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,475/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $769 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $769)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$816

Income / mo

$2,720

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.14/sh now → $4.34 mid-life (likely $3.83–$6.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 627 simulated challenges: the $769 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $772 (overshoots $2.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$769	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.56/sh	+$673 cycle +$1,489 [+$495…+$1,266] · 100% credit	67% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$769	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.42/sh	+$506 cycle +$1,322 [+$291…+$1,070] · 95% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$773	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.44/sh	+$527 cycle +$1,343 [+$99…+$1,032] · 81% credit	74% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$774	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.07/sh	+$85 cycle +$901 [-$727…+$448] · 42% credit	73% surv 63%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.49/sh	-$594 cycle +$222 [-$1,324…-$211] · 19% credit	77% surv 68%
budget: banked $816 debit $594 (73% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$222 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $11,547/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (203 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 203 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.815 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $60,906

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$761	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.63	11/12	$10,395	$10,940	85%	87%	+$5,849	-$0	0.0%	$59,201 (vs do-nothing $-1,705)
$760	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.86	8/12	$10,320	$12,500	81%	84%	+$5,193	-$0	0.0%	$59,850 (vs do-nothing $-1,056)
$759	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.14	6/12	$10,260	$13,530	75%	81%	+$4,620	-$0	0.0%	$60,282 (vs do-nothing $-624)
$760	5d	20 Jul 2026	$1.36	12/12	$9,792	$9,792	75%	81%	+$4,114	-$0	0.0%	$59,922 (vs do-nothing $-984)
$761	7d	22 Jul 2026	$1.93	12/12	$9,926	$9,926	73%	79%	+$3,945	-$0	0.0%	$60,606 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$760	6d	21 Jul 2026	$1.73	12/12	$10,380	$10,380	73%	79%	+$4,151	-$0	0.0%	$60,366 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$759	5d	20 Jul 2026	$1.70	10/12	$10,200	$11,290	71%	78%	+$3,832	-$0	0.0%	$60,426 (vs do-nothing $-480)
$761	8d	23 Jul 2026	$2.35	12/12	$10,575	$10,575	70%	77%	+$2,956	-$0	0.0%	$61,110 (vs do-nothing +$204)
$758	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.48	5/12	$11,100	$14,915	70%	78%	+$4,455	-$0	0.0%	$60,556 (vs do-nothing $-350)
$760	7d	22 Jul 2026	$2.30	10/12	$9,857	$10,947	70%	77%	+$3,632	-$0	0.0%	$61,026 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$761	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.80	11/12	$10,267	$10,812	70%	77%	+$3,766	-$0	0.0%	$61,588 (vs do-nothing +$682)
$759	6d	21 Jul 2026	$2.11	10/12	$10,550	$11,640	69%	77%	+$3,857	-$0	0.0%	$60,836 (vs do-nothing $-70)
$760	8d	23 Jul 2026	$2.74	10/12	$10,275	$11,365	68%	76%	+$3,633	-$0	0.0%	$61,466 (vs do-nothing +$560)

Show 190 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 190.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$763	16d	31 Jul 2026	$4.58	12/12	$10,305	$10,305	68%	76%	+$3,633	-$0	0.0%	$63,786 (vs do-nothing +$2,880)
$761	13d	28 Jul 2026	$3.68	12/12	$10,191	$10,191	67%	76%	+$3,599	-$0	0.0%	$62,706 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$761	12d	27 Jul 2026	$3.29	12/12	$9,870	$9,870	67%	74%	+$2,429	-$0	0.0%	$62,238 (vs do-nothing +$1,332)
$760	9d	24 Jul 2026	$3.22	10/12	$10,733	$11,823	67%	75%	+$3,684	-$0	0.0%	$61,946 (vs do-nothing +$1,040)
$759	7d	22 Jul 2026	$2.70	9/12	$10,414	$12,049	66%	75%	+$3,515	-$0	0.0%	$61,374 (vs do-nothing +$468)
$758	5d	20 Jul 2026	$2.10	8/12	$10,080	$12,260	66%	75%	+$3,384	-$0	0.0%	$60,842 (vs do-nothing $-64)
$762	16d	31 Jul 2026	$5.02	11/12	$10,354	$10,899	66%	75%	+$3,479	-$0	0.0%	$64,030 (vs do-nothing +$3,124)
$761	16d	31 Jul 2026	$5.49	10/12	$10,294	$11,384	65%	76%	+$4,342	-$0	0.0%	$64,216 (vs do-nothing +$3,310)
$759	8d	23 Jul 2026	$3.17	9/12	$10,699	$12,334	65%	74%	+$3,502	-$0	0.0%	$61,797 (vs do-nothing +$891)
$760	13d	28 Jul 2026	$4.14	11/12	$10,509	$11,054	64%	74%	+$3,509	-$0	0.0%	$63,062 (vs do-nothing +$2,156)
$758	6d	21 Jul 2026	$2.54	8/12	$10,160	$12,340	64%	74%	+$3,368	-$0	0.0%	$61,194 (vs do-nothing +$288)
$760	12d	27 Jul 2026	$3.74	11/12	$10,285	$10,830	64%	73%	+$2,584	-$0	0.0%	$62,622 (vs do-nothing +$1,716)
$757	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.88	4/12	$11,280	$15,640	64%	74%	+$3,914	-$0	0.0%	$60,786 (vs do-nothing $-120)
$759	9d	24 Jul 2026	$3.68	8/12	$9,813	$11,993	63%	74%	+$3,159	-$0	0.0%	$62,106 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$760	14d	29 Jul 2026	$4.81	10/12	$10,307	$11,397	63%	73%	+$3,255	-$0	0.0%	$63,536 (vs do-nothing +$2,630)
$758	7d	22 Jul 2026	$3.16	8/12	$10,834	$13,014	62%	73%	+$3,381	-$0	0.0%	$61,690 (vs do-nothing +$784)
$759	12d	27 Jul 2026	$4.21	10/12	$10,525	$11,615	62%	72%	+$2,651	-$0	0.0%	$62,936 (vs do-nothing +$2,030)
$759	13d	28 Jul 2026	$4.62	10/12	$10,662	$11,752	62%	73%	+$3,347	-$0	0.0%	$63,346 (vs do-nothing +$2,440)
$760	16d	31 Jul 2026	$5.99	9/12	$10,108	$11,743	61%	73%	+$3,100	-$0	0.0%	$64,335 (vs do-nothing +$3,429)
$758	8d	23 Jul 2026	$3.65	8/12	$10,950	$13,130	61%	73%	+$3,334	-$0	0.0%	$62,082 (vs do-nothing +$1,176)
$757	5d	20 Jul 2026	$2.55	7/12	$10,710	$13,435	61%	72%	+$3,212	-$0	0.0%	$61,165 (vs do-nothing +$259)
$758	9d	24 Jul 2026	$4.17	7/12	$9,730	$12,455	60%	72%	+$2,927	-$0	0.0%	$62,299 (vs do-nothing +$1,393)
$759	16d	31 Jul 2026	$6.50	8/12	$9,750	$11,930	60%	74%	+$3,925	-$0	0.0%	$64,362 (vs do-nothing +$3,456)
$757	6d	21 Jul 2026	$3.02	7/12	$10,570	$13,295	60%	72%	+$3,161	-$0	0.0%	$61,494 (vs do-nothing +$588)
$758	12d	27 Jul 2026	$4.71	9/12	$10,598	$12,232	59%	71%	+$2,658	-$0	0.0%	$63,183 (vs do-nothing +$2,277)
$758	13d	28 Jul 2026	$5.13	9/12	$10,655	$12,290	59%	72%	+$3,143	-$0	0.0%	$63,561 (vs do-nothing +$2,655)
$757	7d	22 Jul 2026	$3.65	7/12	$10,950	$13,675	59%	71%	+$3,123	-$0	0.0%	$61,935 (vs do-nothing +$1,029)
$757	8d	23 Jul 2026	$4.16	7/12	$10,920	$13,645	58%	71%	+$3,069	-$0	0.0%	$62,292 (vs do-nothing +$1,386)
$756	2d	17 Jul 2026	$2.37	3/12	$10,665	$15,570	58%	71%	+$3,297	-$0	0.0%	$60,963 (vs do-nothing +$57)
$757	9d	24 Jul 2026	$4.70	7/12	$10,967	$13,692	57%	71%	+$3,094	-$0	0.0%	$62,670 (vs do-nothing +$1,764)
$758	16d	31 Jul 2026	$7.05	8/12	$10,575	$12,755	57%	71%	+$2,954	-$0	0.0%	$64,802 (vs do-nothing +$3,896)
$757	12d	27 Jul 2026	$5.25	8/12	$10,500	$12,680	57%	70%	+$2,893	-$0	0.0%	$63,362 (vs do-nothing +$2,456)
$757	13d	28 Jul 2026	$5.68	8/12	$10,486	$12,666	56%	70%	+$2,921	-$0	0.0%	$63,706 (vs do-nothing +$2,800)
$756	5d	20 Jul 2026	$3.06	6/12	$11,016	$14,286	56%	70%	+$3,005	-$0	0.0%	$61,434 (vs do-nothing +$528)
$756	6d	21 Jul 2026	$3.54	6/12	$10,620	$13,890	56%	70%	+$2,843	-$0	0.0%	$61,722 (vs do-nothing +$816)
$757	16d	31 Jul 2026	$7.61	7/12	$9,988	$12,713	55%	70%	+$2,658	-$0	0.0%	$64,707 (vs do-nothing +$3,801)
$756	7d	22 Jul 2026	$4.18	6/12	$10,749	$14,019	55%	69%	+$2,493	-$0	0.0%	$62,106 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$756	8d	23 Jul 2026	$4.70	6/12	$10,575	$13,845	54%	69%	+$2,727	-$0	0.0%	$62,418 (vs do-nothing +$1,512)
$756	9d	24 Jul 2026	$5.25	6/12	$10,500	$13,770	54%	69%	+$2,756	-$0	0.0%	$62,748 (vs do-nothing +$1,842)
$756	12d	27 Jul 2026	$5.81	7/12	$10,167	$12,892	54%	69%	+$2,624	-$0	0.0%	$63,447 (vs do-nothing +$2,541)
$756	13d	28 Jul 2026	$6.25	7/12	$10,096	$12,821	54%	69%	+$2,644	-$0	0.0%	$63,755 (vs do-nothing +$2,849)
$756	16d	31 Jul 2026	$8.21	7/12	$10,776	$13,501	53%	69%	+$2,745	-$0	0.0%	$65,127 (vs do-nothing +$4,221)
$755	2d	17 Jul 2026	$2.92	3/12	$13,140	$18,045	52%	68%	+$3,530	-$0	0.0%	$61,128 (vs do-nothing +$222)
$755	5d	20 Jul 2026	$3.61	5/12	$10,830	$14,645	51%	68%	+$2,570	-$0	0.0%	$61,621 (vs do-nothing +$715)
$755	6d	21 Jul 2026	$4.10	5/12	$10,250	$14,065	51%	68%	+$2,435	-$0	0.0%	$61,866 (vs do-nothing +$960)
$755	7d	22 Jul 2026	$4.76	5/12	$10,200	$14,015	51%	68%	+$2,321	-$0	0.0%	$62,196 (vs do-nothing +$1,290)
$755	8d	23 Jul 2026	$5.28	5/12	$9,900	$13,715	51%	68%	+$2,348	-$0	0.0%	$62,456 (vs do-nothing +$1,550)
$755	9d	24 Jul 2026	$5.84	5/12	$9,733	$13,548	51%	68%	+$2,360	-$0	0.0%	$62,736 (vs do-nothing +$1,830)
$755	12d	27 Jul 2026	$6.41	7/12	$11,217	$13,942	51%	68%	+$2,727	-$0	0.0%	$63,867 (vs do-nothing +$2,961)
$755	13d	28 Jul 2026	$6.85	7/12	$11,065	$13,790	51%	68%	+$2,729	-$0	0.0%	$64,175 (vs do-nothing +$3,269)
$755	14d	29 Jul 2026	$7.55	7/12	$11,325	$14,050	51%	68%	+$2,712	-$0	0.0%	$64,665 (vs do-nothing +$3,759)
$755	16d	31 Jul 2026	$8.83	6/12	$9,934	$13,204	51%	68%	+$2,419	-$0	0.0%	$64,896 (vs do-nothing +$3,990)
$754	16d	31 Jul 2026	$9.44	6/12	$10,620	$13,890	49%	67%	+$2,455	-$0	0.0%	$65,262 (vs do-nothing +$4,356)
$754	13d	28 Jul 2026	$7.41	6/12	$10,260	$13,530	49%	67%	+$2,312	-$0	0.0%	$64,044 (vs do-nothing +$3,138)
$754	12d	27 Jul 2026	$6.97	6/12	$10,455	$13,725	48%	67%	+$2,314	-$0	0.0%	$63,780 (vs do-nothing +$2,874)
$754	9d	24 Jul 2026	$6.46	5/12	$10,767	$14,582	48%	67%	+$2,464	-$0	0.0%	$63,046 (vs do-nothing +$2,140)
$754	8d	23 Jul 2026	$5.83	5/12	$10,931	$14,746	48%	66%	+$2,302	-$0	0.0%	$62,731 (vs do-nothing +$1,825)
$754	7d	22 Jul 2026	$5.36	5/12	$11,486	$15,301	48%	66%	+$2,518	-$0	0.0%	$62,496 (vs do-nothing +$1,590)
$754	6d	21 Jul 2026	$4.70	5/12	$11,750	$15,565	47%	66%	+$2,488	-$0	0.0%	$62,166 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$753	16d	31 Jul 2026	$10.08	6/12	$11,340	$14,610	47%	66%	+$2,498	-$0	0.0%	$65,646 (vs do-nothing +$4,740)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-15 21:39