FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $742.98

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $692.09 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $742.98 UNDERWATER $21.02 (2.8% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $692.09 (banked floor $691.39) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$26,418/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$48,168	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$13,209/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$26,418/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $692.09 (probe: $729C 13d) still earns $15,549/mo (59% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$617

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$471

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$692.09 → $691.39

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $764C 21 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.39	$471	2026-07-16

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 70 (live) · RSI 61 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 44 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $790.39 (+6%) · daily UBB $759.32 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $692.09 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $755 7 Aug 2026 (20d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $755)

70%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$6,384

Income / mo

$9,576

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 20); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $12.07/sh now → $8.53 mid-life (likely $10.01–$13.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,730 simulated challenges: the $755 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 20, at $759 (overshoots $3.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$755	14 Aug 2026	17d left	+$2.12/sh	+$2,539 cycle +$8,923 [+$1,671…+$2,403] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$757	14 Aug 2026	17d left	+$0.87/sh	+$1,043 cycle +$7,427 [+$23…+$813] · 76% credit	69% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$758	14 Aug 2026	17d left	+$0.28/sh	+$341 cycle +$6,725 [-$778…+$50] · 27% credit	70% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$758	14 Aug 2026	17d left	+$0.28/sh	+$341 cycle +$6,725 [-$778…+$50] · 27% credit	70% surv 56%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$770	14 Aug 2026	17d left	-$5.28/sh	-$6,336 cycle +$48 [-$8,924…-$7,250]	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $6,384 debit $6,336 (99% used ≈ 2.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,886/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $753 24 Jul 2026 (6d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $753)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,980

Income / mo

$9,900

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.47/sh now → $4.58 mid-life (likely $4.82–$7.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 904 simulated challenges: the $753 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $756 (overshoots $2.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$761	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$3.44/sh	+$4,123 cycle +$6,103 [+$2,380…+$4,292] · 96% credit	73% surv 63%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$753	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.00/sh	+$1,196 cycle +$3,176 [+$332…+$1,374] · 86% credit	67% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$754	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.38/sh	+$461 cycle +$2,441 [-$539…+$548] · 48% credit	69% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$768	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$247 cycle +$2,227 [-$1,973…+$226] · 30% credit	80% surv 74%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$773	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$1.44/sh	-$1,732 cycle +$248 [-$4,393…-$1,874] · 6% credit	84% surv 80%
budget: banked $1,980 debit $1,732 (87% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$248 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,701/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $773 14 Aug 2026 (27d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $773)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,824

Income / mo

$2,027

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (221 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 221 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.805 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $48,504

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$750	4d	22 Jul 2026	$1.47	12/12	$13,230	$13,230	76%	80%	+$4,446	-$0	0.0%	$49,932 (vs do-nothing +$1,428)
$751	6d	24 Jul 2026	$2.32	12/12	$13,920	$13,920	75%	81%	+$6,270	-$0	0.0%	$50,952 (vs do-nothing +$2,448)
$750	5d	23 Jul 2026	$2.07	11/12	$13,662	$13,746	75%	81%	+$6,258	-$0	0.0%	$50,473 (vs do-nothing +$1,969)
$749	4d	22 Jul 2026	$1.82	10/12	$13,650	$13,818	73%	79%	+$4,681	-$0	0.0%	$50,044 (vs do-nothing +$1,540)
$750	6d	24 Jul 2026	$2.71	10/12	$13,550	$13,718	72%	79%	+$5,701	-$0	0.0%	$50,934 (vs do-nothing +$2,430)
$749	5d	23 Jul 2026	$2.46	9/12	$13,284	$13,536	71%	79%	+$5,665	-$0	0.0%	$50,466 (vs do-nothing +$1,962)
$748	4d	22 Jul 2026	$2.21	8/12	$13,260	$13,596	69%	77%	+$4,549	-$0	0.0%	$50,048 (vs do-nothing +$1,544)
$749	6d	24 Jul 2026	$3.13	9/12	$14,085	$14,337	69%	77%	+$5,515	-$0	0.0%	$51,069 (vs do-nothing +$2,565)
$750	10d	28 Jul 2026	$3.68	12/12	$13,248	$13,248	68%	76%	+$4,847	-$0	0.0%	$52,584 (vs do-nothing +$4,080)
$751	12d	30 Jul 2026	$4.54	12/12	$13,620	$13,620	68%	77%	+$5,466	-$0	0.0%	$53,616 (vs do-nothing +$5,112)
$748	5d	23 Jul 2026	$2.89	8/12	$13,872	$14,208	68%	77%	+$5,440	-$0	0.0%	$50,592 (vs do-nothing +$2,088)
$750	11d	29 Jul 2026	$4.38	12/12	$14,335	$14,335	67%	76%	+$5,180	-$0	0.0%	$53,424 (vs do-nothing +$4,920)
$749	9d	27 Jul 2026	$3.74	11/12	$13,713	$13,797	67%	76%	+$4,875	-$0	0.0%	$52,310 (vs do-nothing +$3,806)

Show 208 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 208.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$751	13d	31 Jul 2026	$5.12	12/12	$14,178	$14,178	66%	75%	+$4,841	-$0	0.0%	$54,312 (vs do-nothing +$5,808)
$750	12d	30 Jul 2026	$5.00	11/12	$13,750	$13,834	66%	76%	+$5,447	-$0	0.0%	$53,696 (vs do-nothing +$5,192)
$747	4d	22 Jul 2026	$2.64	7/12	$13,860	$14,280	66%	75%	+$4,688	-$0	0.0%	$50,156 (vs do-nothing +$1,652)
$749	10d	28 Jul 2026	$4.15	11/12	$13,695	$13,779	66%	75%	+$4,738	-$0	0.0%	$52,761 (vs do-nothing +$4,257)
$748	6d	24 Jul 2026	$3.59	8/12	$14,360	$14,696	66%	75%	+$5,248	-$0	0.0%	$51,152 (vs do-nothing +$2,648)
$749	11d	29 Jul 2026	$4.85	10/12	$13,227	$13,395	65%	75%	+$4,730	-$0	0.0%	$53,074 (vs do-nothing +$4,570)
$750	13d	31 Jul 2026	$5.60	11/12	$14,215	$14,299	64%	74%	+$4,642	-$0	0.0%	$54,356 (vs do-nothing +$5,852)
$747	5d	23 Jul 2026	$3.35	7/12	$14,070	$14,490	64%	75%	+$5,108	-$0	0.0%	$50,653 (vs do-nothing +$2,149)
$749	12d	30 Jul 2026	$5.49	10/12	$13,725	$13,893	64%	75%	+$5,363	-$0	0.0%	$53,714 (vs do-nothing +$5,210)
$748	9d	27 Jul 2026	$4.21	10/12	$14,033	$14,201	64%	74%	+$4,663	-$0	0.0%	$52,434 (vs do-nothing +$3,930)
$748	10d	28 Jul 2026	$4.63	10/12	$13,890	$14,058	63%	74%	+$4,500	-$0	0.0%	$52,854 (vs do-nothing +$4,350)
$747	6d	24 Jul 2026	$4.07	7/12	$14,245	$14,665	62%	74%	+$4,822	-$0	0.0%	$51,157 (vs do-nothing +$2,653)
$748	11d	29 Jul 2026	$5.35	10/12	$14,591	$14,759	62%	74%	+$5,155	-$0	0.0%	$53,574 (vs do-nothing +$5,070)
$749	13d	31 Jul 2026	$6.10	10/12	$14,077	$14,245	62%	73%	+$4,384	-$0	0.0%	$54,324 (vs do-nothing +$5,820)
$746	4d	22 Jul 2026	$3.11	6/12	$13,995	$14,499	62%	73%	+$4,617	-$0	0.0%	$50,202 (vs do-nothing +$1,698)
$750	20d	7 Aug 2026	$7.72	12/12	$13,896	$13,896	62%	73%	+$4,257	-$0	0.0%	$57,432 (vs do-nothing +$8,928)
$747	9d	27 Jul 2026	$4.72	9/12	$14,160	$14,412	61%	73%	+$4,399	-$0	0.0%	$52,500 (vs do-nothing +$3,996)
$748	12d	30 Jul 2026	$6.00	9/12	$13,500	$13,752	61%	72%	+$4,046	-$0	0.0%	$53,652 (vs do-nothing +$5,148)
$746	5d	23 Jul 2026	$3.84	6/12	$13,824	$14,328	61%	73%	+$4,597	-$0	0.0%	$50,640 (vs do-nothing +$2,136)
$747	10d	28 Jul 2026	$5.15	9/12	$13,905	$14,157	60%	72%	+$4,240	-$0	0.0%	$52,887 (vs do-nothing +$4,383)
$748	13d	31 Jul 2026	$6.62	9/12	$13,749	$14,001	60%	72%	+$4,079	-$0	0.0%	$54,210 (vs do-nothing +$5,706)
$749	20d	7 Aug 2026	$8.26	11/12	$13,629	$13,713	60%	72%	+$4,015	-$0	0.0%	$57,282 (vs do-nothing +$8,778)
$747	11d	29 Jul 2026	$5.88	9/12	$14,433	$14,685	60%	73%	+$5,032	-$0	0.0%	$53,544 (vs do-nothing +$5,040)
$746	6d	24 Jul 2026	$4.59	6/12	$13,770	$14,274	59%	72%	+$4,349	-$0	0.0%	$51,090 (vs do-nothing +$2,586)
$749	27d	14 Aug 2026	$10.13	12/12	$13,507	$13,507	59%	71%	+$3,882	-$0	0.0%	$60,324 (vs do-nothing +$11,820)
$747	12d	30 Jul 2026	$6.53	9/12	$14,692	$14,944	59%	71%	+$4,174	-$0	0.0%	$54,129 (vs do-nothing +$5,625)
$748	20d	7 Aug 2026	$8.81	10/12	$13,215	$13,383	59%	71%	+$3,740	-$0	0.0%	$57,034 (vs do-nothing +$8,530)
$746	9d	27 Jul 2026	$5.25	8/12	$14,000	$14,336	58%	71%	+$4,069	-$0	0.0%	$52,480 (vs do-nothing +$3,976)
$745	4d	22 Jul 2026	$3.62	5/12	$13,575	$14,163	58%	72%	+$4,332	-$0	0.0%	$50,174 (vs do-nothing +$1,670)
$747	13d	31 Jul 2026	$7.17	8/12	$13,237	$13,573	58%	71%	+$3,755	-$0	0.0%	$54,016 (vs do-nothing +$5,512)
$746	10d	28 Jul 2026	$5.69	8/12	$13,656	$13,992	58%	71%	+$3,919	-$0	0.0%	$52,832 (vs do-nothing +$4,328)
$746	11d	29 Jul 2026	$6.43	8/12	$14,029	$14,365	58%	72%	+$4,805	-$0	0.0%	$53,424 (vs do-nothing +$4,920)
$748	27d	14 Aug 2026	$10.70	12/12	$14,267	$14,267	58%	71%	+$3,974	-$0	0.0%	$61,008 (vs do-nothing +$12,504)
$745	5d	23 Jul 2026	$4.37	6/12	$15,732	$16,236	57%	71%	+$4,805	-$0	0.0%	$50,958 (vs do-nothing +$2,454)
$747	20d	7 Aug 2026	$9.38	10/12	$14,070	$14,238	57%	70%	+$3,854	-$0	0.0%	$57,604 (vs do-nothing +$9,100)
$746	12d	30 Jul 2026	$7.09	8/12	$14,180	$14,516	57%	70%	+$3,838	-$0	0.0%	$53,952 (vs do-nothing +$5,448)
$745	6d	24 Jul 2026	$5.14	6/12	$15,420	$15,924	56%	71%	+$4,562	-$0	0.0%	$51,420 (vs do-nothing +$2,916)
$746	13d	31 Jul 2026	$7.73	8/12	$14,271	$14,607	56%	70%	+$3,864	-$0	0.0%	$54,464 (vs do-nothing +$5,960)
$747	27d	14 Aug 2026	$11.29	11/12	$13,799	$13,883	56%	70%	+$3,736	-$0	0.0%	$60,615 (vs do-nothing +$12,111)
$745	9d	27 Jul 2026	$5.81	7/12	$13,557	$13,977	56%	70%	+$3,703	-$0	0.0%	$52,375 (vs do-nothing +$3,871)
$745	10d	28 Jul 2026	$6.26	8/12	$15,024	$15,360	55%	70%	+$4,057	-$0	0.0%	$53,288 (vs do-nothing +$4,784)
$746	20d	7 Aug 2026	$9.97	9/12	$13,460	$13,712	55%	70%	+$3,560	-$0	0.0%	$57,225 (vs do-nothing +$8,721)
$745	11d	29 Jul 2026	$7.00	7/12	$13,364	$13,784	55%	71%	+$4,481	-$0	0.0%	$53,208 (vs do-nothing +$4,704)
$745	12d	30 Jul 2026	$7.67	7/12	$13,422	$13,842	55%	72%	+$4,848	-$0	0.0%	$53,677 (vs do-nothing +$5,173)
$746	27d	14 Aug 2026	$11.89	10/12	$13,211	$13,379	55%	70%	+$3,471	-$0	0.0%	$60,114 (vs do-nothing +$11,610)
$745	13d	31 Jul 2026	$8.32	7/12	$13,440	$13,860	54%	69%	+$3,476	-$0	0.0%	$54,132 (vs do-nothing +$5,628)
$744	4d	22 Jul 2026	$4.17	5/12	$15,638	$16,226	54%	70%	+$4,796	-$0	0.0%	$50,449 (vs do-nothing +$1,945)
$745	20d	7 Aug 2026	$10.57	9/12	$14,270	$14,522	54%	69%	+$3,618	-$0	0.0%	$57,765 (vs do-nothing +$9,261)
$744	5d	23 Jul 2026	$4.93	5/12	$14,790	$15,378	54%	69%	+$4,138	-$0	0.0%	$50,829 (vs do-nothing +$2,325)
$745	27d	14 Aug 2026	$12.50	10/12	$13,889	$14,057	53%	69%	+$3,528	-$0	0.0%	$60,724 (vs do-nothing +$12,220)
$744	6d	24 Jul 2026	$5.74	5/12	$14,350	$14,938	53%	69%	+$3,989	-$0	0.0%	$51,234 (vs do-nothing +$2,730)
$744	9d	27 Jul 2026	$6.39	7/12	$14,910	$15,330	53%	69%	+$3,803	-$0	0.0%	$52,781 (vs do-nothing +$4,277)
$744	11d	29 Jul 2026	$7.59	7/12	$14,490	$14,910	53%	70%	+$4,743	-$0	0.0%	$53,621 (vs do-nothing +$5,117)
$744	10d	28 Jul 2026	$6.85	7/12	$14,385	$14,805	53%	69%	+$3,632	-$0	0.0%	$53,103 (vs do-nothing +$4,599)
$744	12d	30 Jul 2026	$8.26	7/12	$14,455	$14,875	53%	71%	+$5,085	-$0	0.0%	$54,090 (vs do-nothing +$5,586)
$744	13d	31 Jul 2026	$8.92	7/12	$14,409	$14,829	52%	68%	+$3,532	-$0	0.0%	$54,552 (vs do-nothing +$6,048)
$744	20d	7 Aug 2026	$11.19	8/12	$13,428	$13,764	52%	68%	+$3,268	-$0	0.0%	$57,232 (vs do-nothing +$8,728)
$744	27d	14 Aug 2026	$13.13	10/12	$14,589	$14,757	52%	68%	+$3,571	-$0	0.0%	$61,354 (vs do-nothing +$12,850)
$743	27d	14 Aug 2026	$13.77	9/12	$13,770	$14,022	51%	68%	+$3,248	-$0	0.0%	$60,645 (vs do-nothing +$12,141)
$743	20d	7 Aug 2026	$11.82	8/12	$14,184	$14,520	51%	68%	+$3,307	-$0	0.0%	$57,736 (vs do-nothing +$9,232)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-18 03:37