FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $750.72

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $690.55 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $750.72 UNDERWATER $13.28 (1.7% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $690.55 (banked floor $689.85) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$14,520/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$57,600	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,260/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$14,520/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
10.2 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
10.2 mo to earn back $148,800

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $690.55 (probe: $736C 12d) brings only $0/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$617

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$471

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$690.55 → $689.85

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $764C 21 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.39	$471	2026-07-16

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 75 (live) · RSI 61 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 54 · %B 69 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $790.39 (+5%) · daily UBB $759.91 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 12 contracts at $755 / 5d. This is the safest strike (survival 66%, breach 34%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,260/mo); it brings $7,272/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 12 × $751/5d for $15,192/mo, but breach risk rises to 49% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $764/5d (93% survival, $648/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 12 contracts realizes $57,588 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · sell 12 × $755, 66% survival, $7,272/mo (E[net] $1,440/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	24 Jul 2026 · 5d	12 × $755	66%	$7,272	$1,440

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 5d · E[net] $1,440/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $755 (primary), 66% survival, breach 34%, $7,272/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $756 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 69% (breach 34% → 31%) for $2,412/mo less (33% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

SPY spot $750.72 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $764

24 Jul

1.8%

93%

14%

$108

$648

-$6,624

Sell 12 × $764 1.8% OTM over spot $750.72 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.10 mid)

= $108 credit for the 5d cycle → $648/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $764)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $764.10)

93%

EV / mo

$-310

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,811

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$782 @ 82% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.26/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $764 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $767 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$764	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.58/sh	+$697 cycle +$805 [+$617…+$987] · 100% credit	58% surv 50%	+$72,747 SAFE cap gain +$15,147
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$773	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.45/sh	+$2,943 cycle +$3,051 [+$2,669…+$3,328] · 100% credit	72% surv 66%	+$85,016 SAFE cap gain +$27,416
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$765	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.14/sh	+$174 cycle +$282 [-$71…+$401] · 67% credit	62% surv 55%	+$73,606 SAFE cap gain +$16,006
Max even-money escape in the band	~$782	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$74 cycle +$182 [-$719…+$337] · 42% credit	82% surv 80%	+$91,867 SAFE cap gain +$34,267

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$648/mo
vs 50% target ($7,260/mo)	-91%
vs normal income ($14,520/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$648/mo

Downside budget

✓ $764 is at/above CC-SS $690.55: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$57,594

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $764.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $764)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $759.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $756.36	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $756-764.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $764.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$764.00 (1.2σ)	$108	$72,050	+$14,450	-$456
+2.5%	$783.10 (3.0σ)	$-22,812	$69,758	+$12,158	-$456
+5%	$802.20 (4.8σ)	$-45,732	$67,466	+$9,866	-$456

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $690.55, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $57,600

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $764): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $57,600 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $58,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-564, the opportunity cost of earning $648/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

10 × $756

24 Jul

0.7%

69%

62%

$810

$4,860

-$2,412

Sell 10 × $756 0.7% OTM over spot $750.72 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.82 mid)

= $810 credit for the 5d cycle → $4,860/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $756)

69%

Breach risk

31%

POP (stays ≤ $756.82)

72%

EV / mo

$-4,696

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

47%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$772

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$781 @ 89% POP

88% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.24/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.85–$2.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,397 simulated challenges: the $756 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $759 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$756	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.66/sh	+$658 cycle +$1,468 [+$512…+$710] · 100% credit	58% surv 50%	+$64,865 SAFE cap gain +$7,265
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$765	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.63/sh	+$2,627 cycle +$3,437 [+$2,325…+$2,664] · 100% credit	71% surv 65%	+$76,599 SAFE cap gain +$18,999
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$757	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.22/sh	+$220 cycle +$1,030 [-$45…+$209] · 67% credit	61% surv 55%	+$65,809 SAFE cap gain +$8,209
Max even-money escape in the band	~$774	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$195 cycle +$1,005 [-$556…+$65] · 30% credit	82% surv 80%	+$82,088 SAFE cap gain +$24,488
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$781	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.79/sh	-$786 cycle +$24 [-$1,807…-$984]	89% surv 88%	+$87,267 SAFE cap gain +$29,667
budget: banked $810 debit $786 (97% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $995/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,860/mo
vs 50% target ($7,260/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($14,520/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,142/mo

Downside budget

✓ $756 is at/above CC-SS $690.55: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$47,990

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $756.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $756)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $759.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $748.44	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $748-756.82	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $756.82	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$756.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$810	$64,206	+$6,606	+$340
+2.5%	$774.90 (2.3σ)	$-18,090	$63,538	+$5,938	-$7,660
+5%	$793.80 (4.0σ)	$-36,990	$61,270	+$3,670	-$7,660

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $690.55, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $57,600

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $756): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $764): +$94

Total Position P&L @ SS: $57,694 (+$94 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $58,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-470, the opportunity cost of earning $4,860/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

12 × $755

24 Jul

0.6%

66%

51%

$1,212

$7,272

—

Sell 12 × $755 0.6% OTM over spot $750.72 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $1.02 mid)

= $1,212 credit for the 5d cycle → $7,272/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $755)

66%

Breach risk

34%

POP (stays ≤ $756.02)

69%

EV / mo

$-6,342

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

51%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$684

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$782 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $2.23/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.94–$2.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,538 simulated challenges: the $755 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 5, at $758 (overshoots $2.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$755	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.67/sh	+$801 cycle +$2,013 [+$619…+$849] · 100% credit	58% surv 50%	+$64,236 SAFE cap gain +$6,636
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$764	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.65/sh	+$3,178 cycle +$4,390 [+$2,792…+$3,173] · 100% credit	71% surv 65%	+$76,634 SAFE cap gain +$19,034
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$756	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.23/sh	+$275 cycle +$1,487 [-$61…+$208] · 64% credit	61% surv 55%	+$65,092 SAFE cap gain +$7,492
Max even-money escape in the band	~$773	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$254 cycle +$1,466 [-$700…+$19] · 26% credit	82% surv 79%	+$83,431 SAFE cap gain +$25,831
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$782	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.95/sh	-$1,138 cycle +$74 [-$2,495…-$1,485]	91% surv 90%	+$91,759 SAFE cap gain +$34,159
budget: banked $1,212 debit $1,138 (94% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $948/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,272/mo
vs 50% target ($7,260/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($14,520/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,272/mo

Downside budget

✓ $755 is at/above CC-SS $690.55: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$57,588

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $756.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $755)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $759.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $747.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $747-756.02	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $756.02	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$755.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,212	$63,434	+$5,834	+$648
+2.5%	$773.87 (2.2σ)	$-21,438	$61,169	+$3,569	-$10,152
+5%	$792.75 (3.9σ)	$-44,088	$58,904	+$1,304	-$10,152

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $690.55, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $57,600

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $755): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $57,600 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $58,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-564, the opportunity cost of earning $7,272/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

12 × $751

24 Jul

0.0%

51%

98%

$2,532

$15,192

+$7,920

Sell 12 × $751 0.0% OTM over spot $750.72 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $2.13 mid)

= $2,532 credit for the 5d cycle → $15,192/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $751)

51%

Breach risk

49%

POP (stays ≤ $753.13)

59%

EV / mo

$-9,931

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

74%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$646

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$778 @ 90% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $2.15–$3.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,207 simulated challenges: the $751 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 5, at $754 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$751	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.71/sh	+$847 cycle +$3,379 [+$618…+$739] · 100% credit	58% surv 50%	+$61,281 SAFE cap gain +$3,681
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$760	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.73/sh	+$3,280 cycle +$5,812 [+$2,763…+$3,030] · 100% credit	71% surv 65%	+$73,737 SAFE cap gain +$16,137
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$752	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.27/sh	+$319 cycle +$2,851 [-$123…+$132] · 57% credit	61% surv 55%	+$62,136 SAFE cap gain +$4,536
Max even-money escape in the band	~$769	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.28/sh	+$334 cycle +$2,866 [-$930…-$83] · 17% credit	81% surv 79%	+$80,510 SAFE cap gain +$22,910
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$778	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.91/sh	-$1,087 cycle +$1,445 [-$2,891…-$1,644]	90% surv 90%	+$88,810 SAFE cap gain +$31,210
budget: banked $2,532 debit $1,087 (43% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,445 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $999/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,192/mo
vs 50% target ($7,260/mo)	+109%
vs normal income ($14,520/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,192/mo

Downside budget

✓ $751 is at/above CC-SS $690.55: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$57,576

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.11 collected) or spot ≥ $753.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $751)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $759.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $743.49	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $743-753.13	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $753.13	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$751.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,532	$60,434	+$2,834	+$1,968
+2.5%	$769.77 (1.8σ)	$-19,998	$58,181	+$581	-$13,632
+5%	$788.55 (3.5σ)	$-42,528	$55,928	-$1,672	-$13,632

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $690.55, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $57,600

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $751): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $57,600 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $58,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-564, the opportunity cost of earning $15,192/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (167 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (9 expiries scanned, 167 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $58,164

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$755	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.01	12/12	$7,272	$7,272	66%	69%	$-6,342	-$0	0.0%	$58,812 (vs do-nothing +$648)
$754	4d	23 Jul 2026	$0.82	12/12	$7,380	$7,380	65%	68%	$-7,359	-$0	0.0%	$58,584 (vs do-nothing +$420)
$757	12d	31 Jul 2026	$2.57	12/12	$7,710	$7,710	65%	70%	$-2,148	-$0	0.0%	$60,684 (vs do-nothing +$2,520)
$758	19d	7 Aug 2026	$3.88	12/12	$7,352	$7,352	63%	70%	$-1,021	-$0	0.0%	$62,256 (vs do-nothing +$4,092)
$754	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.24	10/12	$7,440	$7,722	63%	67%	$-5,436	-$0	0.0%	$58,934 (vs do-nothing +$770)
$756	12d	31 Jul 2026	$2.89	11/12	$7,948	$8,088	62%	68%	$-2,246	-$0	0.0%	$60,826 (vs do-nothing +$2,662)
$755	10d	29 Jul 2026	$2.21	11/12	$7,293	$7,434	62%	67%	$-3,272	-$0	0.0%	$60,078 (vs do-nothing +$1,914)
$757	19d	7 Aug 2026	$4.23	11/12	$7,347	$7,488	62%	69%	$-1,086	-$0	0.0%	$62,300 (vs do-nothing +$4,136)
$758	26d	14 Aug 2026	$5.43	12/12	$7,518	$7,518	62%	69%	$-448	-$0	0.0%	$64,116 (vs do-nothing +$5,952)
$755	11d	30 Jul 2026	$2.75	10/12	$7,500	$7,782	61%	67%	$-2,108	-$0	0.0%	$60,444 (vs do-nothing +$2,280)
$757	26d	14 Aug 2026	$5.85	11/12	$7,425	$7,566	60%	68%	$-468	-$0	0.0%	$64,082 (vs do-nothing +$5,918)
$754	9d	28 Jul 2026	$1.96	12/12	$7,840	$7,840	60%	66%	$-4,510	-$0	0.0%	$59,952 (vs do-nothing +$1,788)
$755	12d	31 Jul 2026	$3.24	9/12	$7,290	$7,713	60%	67%	$-2,064	-$0	0.0%	$60,657 (vs do-nothing +$2,493)

Show 154 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 154.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$754	8d	27 Jul 2026	$1.65	12/12	$7,425	$7,425	60%	65%	$-6,717	-$0	0.0%	$59,580 (vs do-nothing +$1,416)
$756	19d	7 Aug 2026	$4.62	10/12	$7,295	$7,577	60%	67%	$-1,099	-$0	0.0%	$62,314 (vs do-nothing +$4,150)
$753	4d	23 Jul 2026	$1.04	10/12	$7,800	$8,082	60%	64%	$-8,966	-$0	0.0%	$58,734 (vs do-nothing +$570)
$754	10d	29 Jul 2026	$2.54	10/12	$7,620	$7,902	59%	65%	$-3,339	-$0	0.0%	$60,234 (vs do-nothing +$2,070)
$753	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.49	9/12	$8,046	$8,469	59%	64%	$-5,945	-$0	0.0%	$59,082 (vs do-nothing +$918)
$756	26d	14 Aug 2026	$6.28	11/12	$7,971	$8,112	58%	67%	$-538	-$0	0.0%	$64,555 (vs do-nothing +$6,391)
$755	19d	7 Aug 2026	$5.03	10/12	$7,942	$8,224	58%	66%	$-1,217	-$0	0.0%	$62,724 (vs do-nothing +$4,560)
$754	12d	31 Jul 2026	$3.61	9/12	$8,122	$8,546	58%	65%	$-2,309	-$0	0.0%	$60,990 (vs do-nothing +$2,826)
$753	8d	27 Jul 2026	$1.95	10/12	$7,312	$7,594	58%	64%	$-4,728	-$0	0.0%	$59,644 (vs do-nothing +$1,480)
$753	9d	28 Jul 2026	$2.28	10/12	$7,600	$7,882	57%	63%	$-4,279	-$0	0.0%	$59,974 (vs do-nothing +$1,810)
$755	26d	14 Aug 2026	$6.73	10/12	$7,765	$8,047	57%	66%	$-553	-$0	0.0%	$64,424 (vs do-nothing +$6,260)
$753	10d	29 Jul 2026	$2.89	9/12	$7,803	$8,226	56%	64%	$-3,369	-$0	0.0%	$60,342 (vs do-nothing +$2,178)
$754	19d	7 Aug 2026	$5.46	9/12	$7,759	$8,182	56%	65%	$-1,206	-$0	0.0%	$62,655 (vs do-nothing +$4,491)
$752	4d	23 Jul 2026	$1.28	8/12	$7,680	$8,244	56%	61%	$-8,201	-$0	0.0%	$58,812 (vs do-nothing +$648)
$754	26d	14 Aug 2026	$7.20	9/12	$7,477	$7,900	55%	66%	$-555	-$0	0.0%	$64,221 (vs do-nothing +$6,057)
$753	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	8/12	$8,000	$8,564	55%	64%	$-2,286	-$0	0.0%	$60,988 (vs do-nothing +$2,824)
$752	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.78	7/12	$7,476	$8,181	55%	61%	$-5,470	-$0	0.0%	$59,081 (vs do-nothing +$917)
$753	19d	7 Aug 2026	$5.91	8/12	$7,465	$8,029	55%	64%	$-1,174	-$0	0.0%	$62,516 (vs do-nothing +$4,352)
$752	8d	27 Jul 2026	$2.28	9/12	$7,695	$8,118	54%	61%	$-4,848	-$0	0.0%	$59,793 (vs do-nothing +$1,629)
$752	9d	28 Jul 2026	$2.64	9/12	$7,920	$8,343	54%	62%	$-4,310	-$0	0.0%	$60,117 (vs do-nothing +$1,953)
$753	26d	14 Aug 2026	$7.68	9/12	$7,975	$8,398	54%	65%	$-621	-$0	0.0%	$64,653 (vs do-nothing +$6,489)
$752	10d	29 Jul 2026	$3.27	8/12	$7,848	$8,412	54%	62%	$-3,326	-$0	0.0%	$60,404 (vs do-nothing +$2,240)
$752	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.42	7/12	$7,735	$8,440	53%	63%	$-2,198	-$0	0.0%	$60,929 (vs do-nothing +$2,765)
$752	19d	7 Aug 2026	$6.38	8/12	$8,059	$8,623	53%	63%	$-1,279	-$0	0.0%	$62,892 (vs do-nothing +$4,728)
$752	26d	14 Aug 2026	$8.19	8/12	$7,560	$8,124	53%	64%	$-601	-$0	0.0%	$64,340 (vs do-nothing +$6,176)
$751	4d	23 Jul 2026	$1.57	7/12	$8,242	$8,948	51%	58%	$-8,067	-$0	0.0%	$58,934 (vs do-nothing +$770)
$751	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.11	6/12	$7,596	$8,442	51%	59%	$-4,966	-$0	0.0%	$59,148 (vs do-nothing +$984)
$751	8d	27 Jul 2026	$2.64	8/12	$7,920	$8,484	51%	59%	$-4,867	-$0	0.0%	$59,900 (vs do-nothing +$1,736)
$751	9d	28 Jul 2026	$3.02	8/12	$8,053	$8,617	51%	60%	$-4,283	-$0	0.0%	$60,204 (vs do-nothing +$2,040)
$751	10d	29 Jul 2026	$3.66	7/12	$7,686	$8,391	51%	60%	$-3,251	-$0	0.0%	$60,397 (vs do-nothing +$2,233)
$751	19d	7 Aug 2026	$6.87	7/12	$7,593	$8,298	51%	62%	$-1,212	-$0	0.0%	$62,644 (vs do-nothing +$4,480)
$751	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.84	6/12	$7,260	$8,106	51%	61%	$-2,093	-$0	0.0%	$60,786 (vs do-nothing +$2,622)
$750	26d	14 Aug 2026	$9.24	7/12	$7,463	$8,168	49%	64%	+$491	-$0	0.0%	$64,303 (vs do-nothing +$6,139)
$750	19d	7 Aug 2026	$7.38	7/12	$8,157	$8,862	49%	61%	$-1,306	-$0	0.0%	$63,001 (vs do-nothing +$4,837)
$750	12d	31 Jul 2026	$5.32	6/12	$7,980	$8,826	49%	60%	$-2,252	-$0	0.0%	$61,074 (vs do-nothing +$2,910)
$750	10d	29 Jul 2026	$4.09	6/12	$7,362	$8,208	49%	59%	$-3,066	-$0	0.0%	$60,336 (vs do-nothing +$2,172)
$749	26d	14 Aug 2026	$9.79	7/12	$7,907	$8,612	48%	62%	$-685	-$0	0.0%	$64,688 (vs do-nothing +$6,524)
$750	9d	28 Jul 2026	$3.42	7/12	$7,980	$8,685	48%	58%	$-4,178	-$0	0.0%	$60,229 (vs do-nothing +$2,065)
$750	8d	27 Jul 2026	$3.03	7/12	$7,954	$8,659	48%	57%	$-4,769	-$0	0.0%	$59,956 (vs do-nothing +$1,792)
$749	19d	7 Aug 2026	$7.90	6/12	$7,484	$8,330	48%	61%	$-1,210	-$0	0.0%	$62,622 (vs do-nothing +$4,458)
$750	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.48	5/12	$7,440	$8,427	48%	57%	$-4,550	-$0	0.0%	$59,169 (vs do-nothing +$1,005)
$750	4d	23 Jul 2026	$1.89	6/12	$8,505	$9,351	47%	55%	$-7,763	-$0	0.0%	$59,016 (vs do-nothing +$852)
$748	26d	14 Aug 2026	$10.35	7/12	$8,360	$9,065	47%	61%	$-742	-$0	0.0%	$65,080 (vs do-nothing +$6,916)
$749	12d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	6/12	$8,700	$9,546	47%	59%	$-2,452	-$0	0.0%	$61,362 (vs do-nothing +$3,198)
$748	19d	7 Aug 2026	$8.46	6/12	$8,015	$8,861	46%	60%	$-1,280	-$0	0.0%	$62,958 (vs do-nothing +$4,794)
$749	10d	29 Jul 2026	$4.55	6/12	$8,190	$9,036	46%	57%	$-3,351	-$0	0.0%	$60,612 (vs do-nothing +$2,448)
$747	26d	14 Aug 2026	$10.93	6/12	$7,567	$8,413	46%	60%	$-675	-$0	0.0%	$64,440 (vs do-nothing +$6,276)
$749	9d	28 Jul 2026	$3.86	6/12	$7,720	$8,566	46%	56%	$-3,936	-$0	0.0%	$60,198 (vs do-nothing +$2,034)
$749	8d	27 Jul 2026	$3.45	6/12	$7,762	$8,608	45%	56%	$-4,542	-$0	0.0%	$59,952 (vs do-nothing +$1,788)
$748	12d	31 Jul 2026	$6.30	5/12	$7,875	$8,862	45%	58%	$-2,216	-$0	0.0%	$61,079 (vs do-nothing +$2,915)
$747	19d	7 Aug 2026	$9.02	6/12	$8,545	$9,391	45%	59%	$-1,359	-$0	0.0%	$63,294 (vs do-nothing +$5,130)
$746	26d	14 Aug 2026	$11.52	6/12	$7,975	$8,821	44%	60%	$-717	-$0	0.0%	$64,794 (vs do-nothing +$6,630)
$748	10d	29 Jul 2026	$5.03	5/12	$7,545	$8,532	44%	56%	$-3,045	-$0	0.0%	$60,444 (vs do-nothing +$2,280)
$749	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.88	5/12	$8,640	$9,627	44%	55%	$-5,003	-$0	0.0%	$59,369 (vs do-nothing +$1,205)
$746	19d	7 Aug 2026	$9.60	5/12	$7,579	$8,566	43%	58%	$-1,193	-$0	0.0%	$62,729 (vs do-nothing +$4,565)
$745	26d	14 Aug 2026	$12.13	6/12	$8,398	$9,244	43%	59%	$-761	-$0	0.0%	$65,160 (vs do-nothing +$6,996)
$749	4d	23 Jul 2026	$2.26	5/12	$8,475	$9,462	43%	53%	$-7,173	-$0	0.0%	$59,059 (vs do-nothing +$895)
$748	9d	28 Jul 2026	$4.33	6/12	$8,660	$9,506	43%	55%	$-4,295	-$0	0.0%	$60,480 (vs do-nothing +$2,316)
$747	12d	31 Jul 2026	$6.85	5/12	$8,562	$9,550	43%	57%	$-2,353	-$0	0.0%	$61,354 (vs do-nothing +$3,190)
$748	8d	27 Jul 2026	$3.91	5/12	$7,331	$8,318	42%	54%	$-4,149	-$0	0.0%	$59,884 (vs do-nothing +$1,720)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-19 19:27