FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $743.29

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $681.08 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $743.29 UNDERWATER $20.71 (2.7% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $681.08 (banked floor $680.35) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$22,200/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$57,600	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$11,100/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$22,200/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
6.7 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
6.7 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $681.08 (probe: $735C 12d) still earns $17,850/mo (80% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$617

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$471

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$681.08 → $680.35

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $764C 21 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.39	$471	2026-07-16

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 70 (live) · RSI 61 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 45 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $790.39 (+6%) · daily UBB $759.33 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $681.08 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $750 27 Jul 2026 (8d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $750)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$3,636

Income / mo

$13,635

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.56/sh now → $4.64 mid-life (likely $5.65–$8.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,553 simulated challenges: the $750 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $753 (overshoots $3.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$750	28 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.40/sh	+$485 cycle +$4,121 [+$416…+$783] · 100% credit	69% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$761	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.47/sh	+$1,764 cycle +$5,400 [-$16…+$1,288] · 75% credit	76% surv 67%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$763	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.53/sh	+$638 cycle +$4,274 [-$1,130…+$157] · 29% credit	79% surv 72%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$751	28 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.00/sh	+$5 cycle +$3,641 [-$375…-$112] · 15% credit	68% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$769	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$2.86/sh	-$3,428 cycle +$208 [-$6,136…-$4,278]	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $3,636 debit $3,428 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$208 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,273/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $752 23 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $752)

83%

Touch odds

34%

Per cycle

$1,536

Income / mo

$11,520

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.12/sh now → $3.62 mid-life (likely $3.87–$6.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 842 simulated challenges: the $752 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $755 (overshoots $3.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$752	24 Jul 2026	3d left	+$0.74/sh	+$884 cycle +$2,420 [+$942…+$1,379] · 100% credit	71% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$753	24 Jul 2026	3d left	+$0.31/sh	+$371 cycle +$1,907 [+$319…+$698] · 100% credit	72% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$763	7 Aug 2026	17d left	+$1.13/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$2,894 [-$423…+$1,349] · 65% credit	77% surv 70%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$765	7 Aug 2026	17d left	+$0.33/sh	+$396 cycle +$1,932 [-$1,575…+$350] · 36% credit	79% surv 73%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$770	7 Aug 2026	17d left	-$1.27/sh	-$1,527 cycle +$9 [-$3,961…-$1,663] · 2% credit	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $1,536 debit $1,527 (99% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,970/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $757 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $757)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$768

Income / mo

$4,608

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$768	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.07/sh	+$2,488 cycle +$3,256 [+$1,075…+$3,249] · 87% credit	75% surv 67%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$757	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.97/sh	+$1,160 cycle +$1,928 [+$494…+$1,745] · 86% credit	66% surv 50%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$770	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.10/sh	+$1,319 cycle +$2,087 [-$91…+$2,080] · 74% credit	79% surv 72%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$759	27 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.00/sh	+$3 cycle +$771 [-$888…+$477] · 39% credit	69% surv 56%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (159 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (9 expiries scanned, 159 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $58,164

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$752	4d	23 Jul 2026	$1.28	12/12	$11,520	$11,520	83%	86%	+$6,889	-$0	0.0%	$59,136 (vs do-nothing +$972)
$751	4d	23 Jul 2026	$1.57	10/12	$11,775	$12,057	80%	84%	+$6,545	-$0	0.0%	$59,264 (vs do-nothing +$1,100)
$750	4d	23 Jul 2026	$1.89	8/12	$11,340	$11,904	76%	82%	+$5,818	-$0	0.0%	$59,300 (vs do-nothing +$1,136)
$751	8d	27 Jul 2026	$2.64	12/12	$11,880	$11,880	73%	79%	+$4,851	-$0	0.0%	$60,768 (vs do-nothing +$2,604)
$749	4d	23 Jul 2026	$2.26	7/12	$11,865	$12,570	72%	80%	+$5,629	-$0	0.0%	$59,417 (vs do-nothing +$1,253)
$753	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	12/12	$12,000	$12,000	72%	80%	+$5,759	-$0	0.0%	$62,400 (vs do-nothing +$4,236)
$752	10d	29 Jul 2026	$3.27	12/12	$11,772	$11,772	72%	79%	+$4,807	-$0	0.0%	$61,524 (vs do-nothing +$3,360)
$751	9d	28 Jul 2026	$3.02	12/12	$12,080	$12,080	71%	78%	+$4,679	-$0	0.0%	$61,224 (vs do-nothing +$3,060)
$752	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.42	11/12	$12,155	$12,296	70%	79%	+$5,732	-$0	0.0%	$62,509 (vs do-nothing +$4,345)
$750	8d	27 Jul 2026	$3.03	10/12	$11,362	$11,644	70%	77%	+$4,308	-$0	0.0%	$60,724 (vs do-nothing +$2,560)
$751	10d	29 Jul 2026	$3.66	11/12	$12,078	$12,219	70%	78%	+$4,835	-$0	0.0%	$61,673 (vs do-nothing +$3,509)
$748	4d	23 Jul 2026	$2.66	6/12	$11,970	$12,816	69%	77%	+$5,205	-$0	0.0%	$59,478 (vs do-nothing +$1,314)
$750	9d	28 Jul 2026	$3.42	10/12	$11,400	$11,682	69%	76%	+$4,107	-$0	0.0%	$61,114 (vs do-nothing +$2,950)

Show 146 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 146.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$751	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.84	10/12	$12,100	$12,382	68%	78%	+$5,566	-$0	0.0%	$62,534 (vs do-nothing +$4,370)
$750	10d	29 Jul 2026	$4.09	10/12	$12,270	$12,552	67%	76%	+$4,829	-$0	0.0%	$61,784 (vs do-nothing +$3,620)
$749	8d	27 Jul 2026	$3.45	9/12	$11,644	$12,067	67%	76%	+$4,084	-$0	0.0%	$60,846 (vs do-nothing +$2,682)
$753	19d	7 Aug 2026	$5.91	12/12	$11,198	$11,198	67%	75%	+$3,684	-$0	0.0%	$64,692 (vs do-nothing +$6,528)
$750	12d	31 Jul 2026	$5.32	9/12	$11,970	$12,393	66%	77%	+$5,410	-$0	0.0%	$62,529 (vs do-nothing +$4,365)
$749	9d	28 Jul 2026	$3.86	9/12	$11,580	$12,003	66%	75%	+$3,895	-$0	0.0%	$61,215 (vs do-nothing +$3,051)
$750	11d	30 Jul 2026	$4.72	9/12	$11,585	$12,008	65%	75%	+$3,734	-$0	0.0%	$61,989 (vs do-nothing +$3,825)
$752	19d	7 Aug 2026	$6.38	12/12	$12,088	$12,088	65%	74%	+$3,815	-$0	0.0%	$65,256 (vs do-nothing +$7,092)
$747	4d	23 Jul 2026	$3.09	5/12	$11,587	$12,574	65%	75%	+$4,577	-$0	0.0%	$59,474 (vs do-nothing +$1,310)
$748	8d	27 Jul 2026	$3.91	8/12	$11,730	$12,294	64%	74%	+$3,823	-$0	0.0%	$60,916 (vs do-nothing +$2,752)
$749	12d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	8/12	$11,600	$12,164	64%	76%	+$5,115	-$0	0.0%	$62,428 (vs do-nothing +$4,264)
$751	19d	7 Aug 2026	$6.87	11/12	$11,932	$12,073	63%	73%	+$3,612	-$0	0.0%	$65,204 (vs do-nothing +$7,040)
$752	26d	14 Aug 2026	$8.19	12/12	$11,340	$11,340	63%	73%	+$3,449	-$0	0.0%	$67,428 (vs do-nothing +$9,264)
$748	9d	28 Jul 2026	$4.33	8/12	$11,547	$12,111	63%	73%	+$3,624	-$0	0.0%	$61,252 (vs do-nothing +$3,088)
$750	19d	7 Aug 2026	$7.38	10/12	$11,653	$11,935	62%	73%	+$3,385	-$0	0.0%	$65,074 (vs do-nothing +$6,910)
$748	12d	31 Jul 2026	$6.30	8/12	$12,600	$13,164	62%	75%	+$5,409	-$0	0.0%	$62,828 (vs do-nothing +$4,664)
$751	26d	14 Aug 2026	$8.70	12/12	$12,046	$12,046	62%	73%	+$3,529	-$0	0.0%	$68,040 (vs do-nothing +$9,876)
$750	26d	14 Aug 2026	$9.24	11/12	$11,728	$11,869	61%	75%	+$4,892	-$0	0.0%	$67,811 (vs do-nothing +$9,647)
$747	8d	27 Jul 2026	$4.39	7/12	$11,524	$12,229	61%	72%	+$3,474	-$0	0.0%	$60,908 (vs do-nothing +$2,744)
$746	4d	23 Jul 2026	$3.56	5/12	$13,350	$14,337	61%	73%	+$4,775	-$0	0.0%	$59,709 (vs do-nothing +$1,545)
$747	9d	28 Jul 2026	$4.82	7/12	$11,247	$11,952	60%	72%	+$3,276	-$0	0.0%	$61,209 (vs do-nothing +$3,045)
$749	19d	7 Aug 2026	$7.90	9/12	$11,226	$11,649	60%	72%	+$3,118	-$0	0.0%	$64,851 (vs do-nothing +$6,687)
$749	26d	14 Aug 2026	$9.79	10/12	$11,296	$11,578	60%	74%	+$4,647	-$0	0.0%	$67,484 (vs do-nothing +$9,320)
$747	12d	31 Jul 2026	$6.85	7/12	$11,988	$12,692	59%	74%	+$5,032	-$0	0.0%	$62,630 (vs do-nothing +$4,466)
$748	26d	14 Aug 2026	$10.35	10/12	$11,942	$12,224	58%	74%	+$4,836	-$0	0.0%	$68,044 (vs do-nothing +$9,880)
$748	19d	7 Aug 2026	$8.46	9/12	$12,022	$12,445	58%	71%	+$3,218	-$0	0.0%	$65,355 (vs do-nothing +$7,191)
$746	8d	27 Jul 2026	$4.90	7/12	$12,862	$13,568	58%	71%	+$3,591	-$0	0.0%	$61,265 (vs do-nothing +$3,101)
$746	9d	28 Jul 2026	$5.35	7/12	$12,483	$13,188	57%	71%	+$3,395	-$0	0.0%	$61,580 (vs do-nothing +$3,416)
$746	12d	31 Jul 2026	$7.40	6/12	$11,100	$11,946	57%	73%	+$4,528	-$0	0.0%	$62,322 (vs do-nothing +$4,158)
$745	4d	23 Jul 2026	$4.06	4/12	$12,180	$13,308	57%	71%	+$3,919	-$0	0.0%	$59,600 (vs do-nothing +$1,436)
$747	26d	14 Aug 2026	$10.93	9/12	$11,350	$11,773	57%	73%	+$4,524	-$0	0.0%	$67,578 (vs do-nothing +$9,414)
$745	5d	24 Jul 2026	$4.81	4/12	$11,544	$12,672	57%	73%	+$4,722	-$0	0.0%	$59,900 (vs do-nothing +$1,736)
$747	19d	7 Aug 2026	$9.02	8/12	$11,394	$11,958	57%	70%	+$2,933	-$0	0.0%	$65,004 (vs do-nothing +$6,840)
$745	8d	27 Jul 2026	$5.46	6/12	$12,285	$13,131	55%	70%	+$3,211	-$0	0.0%	$61,158 (vs do-nothing +$2,994)
$746	26d	14 Aug 2026	$11.52	9/12	$11,963	$12,386	55%	72%	+$4,687	-$0	0.0%	$68,109 (vs do-nothing +$9,945)
$746	19d	7 Aug 2026	$9.60	8/12	$12,126	$12,690	55%	69%	+$3,011	-$0	0.0%	$65,468 (vs do-nothing +$7,304)
$745	10d	29 Jul 2026	$6.64	6/12	$11,952	$12,798	55%	71%	+$4,160	-$0	0.0%	$61,866 (vs do-nothing +$3,702)
$745	9d	28 Jul 2026	$5.91	6/12	$11,820	$12,666	55%	69%	+$3,009	-$0	0.0%	$61,428 (vs do-nothing +$3,264)
$745	11d	30 Jul 2026	$7.32	6/12	$11,978	$12,824	54%	69%	+$2,916	-$0	0.0%	$62,274 (vs do-nothing +$4,110)
$745	26d	14 Aug 2026	$12.13	8/12	$11,197	$11,761	53%	72%	+$4,312	-$0	0.0%	$67,492 (vs do-nothing +$9,328)
$745	19d	7 Aug 2026	$10.19	7/12	$11,263	$11,968	53%	69%	+$2,689	-$0	0.0%	$64,968 (vs do-nothing +$6,804)
$744	4d	23 Jul 2026	$4.61	4/12	$13,830	$14,958	53%	69%	+$4,024	-$0	0.0%	$59,820 (vs do-nothing +$1,656)
$744	5d	24 Jul 2026	$5.36	4/12	$12,864	$13,992	53%	72%	+$4,975	-$0	0.0%	$60,120 (vs do-nothing +$1,956)
$744	8d	27 Jul 2026	$6.02	5/12	$11,288	$12,274	52%	68%	+$2,720	-$0	0.0%	$60,939 (vs do-nothing +$2,775)
$744	10d	29 Jul 2026	$7.22	6/12	$12,996	$13,842	52%	70%	+$4,378	-$0	0.0%	$62,214 (vs do-nothing +$4,050)
$744	9d	28 Jul 2026	$6.48	6/12	$12,960	$13,806	52%	68%	+$3,066	-$0	0.0%	$61,770 (vs do-nothing +$3,606)
$744	26d	14 Aug 2026	$12.75	8/12	$11,769	$12,333	52%	71%	+$4,450	-$0	0.0%	$67,988 (vs do-nothing +$9,824)
$744	19d	7 Aug 2026	$10.80	7/12	$11,937	$12,642	52%	68%	+$2,733	-$0	0.0%	$65,395 (vs do-nothing +$7,231)
$743	19d	7 Aug 2026	$11.42	7/12	$12,622	$13,327	50%	67%	+$2,750	-$0	0.0%	$65,829 (vs do-nothing +$7,665)
$743	26d	14 Aug 2026	$13.38	8/12	$12,351	$12,915	50%	71%	+$4,578	-$0	0.0%	$68,492 (vs do-nothing +$10,328)
$743	10d	29 Jul 2026	$7.81	5/12	$11,715	$12,702	50%	69%	+$3,798	-$0	0.0%	$61,834 (vs do-nothing +$3,670)
$743	8d	27 Jul 2026	$6.61	5/12	$12,394	$13,381	50%	67%	+$2,758	-$0	0.0%	$61,234 (vs do-nothing +$3,070)
$743	9d	28 Jul 2026	$7.08	5/12	$11,800	$12,787	50%	69%	+$3,442	-$0	0.0%	$61,469 (vs do-nothing +$3,305)
$743	5d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	4/12	$14,280	$15,408	49%	70%	+$5,219	-$0	0.0%	$60,356 (vs do-nothing +$2,192)
$742	19d	7 Aug 2026	$12.05	6/12	$11,416	$12,262	49%	66%	+$2,375	-$0	0.0%	$65,112 (vs do-nothing +$6,948)
$742	26d	14 Aug 2026	$14.02	7/12	$11,324	$12,029	49%	70%	+$4,111	-$0	0.0%	$67,649 (vs do-nothing +$9,485)
$741	26d	14 Aug 2026	$14.64	7/12	$11,825	$12,530	48%	66%	+$2,420	-$0	0.0%	$68,083 (vs do-nothing +$9,919)
$742	10d	29 Jul 2026	$8.43	5/12	$12,645	$13,632	47%	68%	+$3,947	-$0	0.0%	$62,144 (vs do-nothing +$3,980)
$742	8d	27 Jul 2026	$7.22	5/12	$13,538	$14,524	47%	66%	+$2,775	-$0	0.0%	$61,539 (vs do-nothing +$3,375)
$742	9d	28 Jul 2026	$7.69	5/12	$12,817	$13,804	47%	68%	+$3,588	-$0	0.0%	$61,774 (vs do-nothing +$3,610)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-19 21:24