FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $745.85

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $694.24 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $745.85 UNDERWATER $18.15 (2.4% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $694.24 (banked floor $693.55) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$20,093/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$49,896	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,047/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$20,093/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $694.24 (probe: $735C 14d) still earns $10,722/mo (53% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$617

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$471

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$694.24 → $693.55

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $764C 21 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.39	$471	2026-07-16

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 72 (live) · RSI 61 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 53 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $790.39 (+6%) · daily UBB $759.45 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $694.24 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $731 24 Jul 2026 (4d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $731)

Touch odds

100%

Per cycle

$17,304

Income / mo

$129,780

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$731	27 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.35/sh	+$1,614 cycle +$18,918	65% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$735	27 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.29/sh	+$352 cycle +$17,656	71% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$753	14 Aug 2026	23d left	+$0.20/sh	+$244 cycle +$17,548	83% surv 80%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$761	14 Aug 2026	23d left	-$1.62/sh	-$1,946 cycle +$15,358	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $17,304 debit $1,946 (11% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15,358 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,222/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $754 24 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $754)

81%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$1,488

Income / mo

$11,160

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.44/sh now → $3.14 mid-life (likely $3.45–$5.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 957 simulated challenges: the $754 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $757 (overshoots $3.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$762	14 Aug 2026	23d left	+$3.43/sh	+$4,114 cycle +$5,602 [+$2,799…+$4,140] · 98% credit	73% surv 63%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$754	27 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.98/sh	+$1,170 cycle +$2,658 [+$589…+$1,380] · 94% credit	65% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$755	27 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.39/sh	+$474 cycle +$1,962 [-$283…+$524] · 58% credit	67% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$769	14 Aug 2026	23d left	+$0.60/sh	+$720 cycle +$2,208 [-$1,086…+$642] · 46% credit	80% surv 75%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	14 Aug 2026	23d left	-$1.23/sh	-$1,482 cycle +$6 [-$3,846…-$1,701] · 1% credit	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $1,488 debit $1,482 (100% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,977/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $765 31 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $765)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$996

Income / mo

$2,716

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.71/sh now → $5.45 mid-life (likely $5.13–$7.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 750 simulated challenges: the $765 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $769 (overshoots $3.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$765	3 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.57/sh	+$681 cycle +$1,677 [+$789…+$1,979] · 100% credit	69% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$772	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.54/sh	+$644 cycle +$1,640 [-$375…+$1,259] · 61% credit	72% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$773	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.08/sh	+$102 cycle +$1,098 [-$999…+$663] · 40% credit	73% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	14 Aug 2026	20d left	-$0.77/sh	-$921 cycle +$75 [-$2,167…-$387] · 18% credit	75% surv 68%
budget: banked $996 debit $921 (92% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $8,427/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (185 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (9 expiries scanned, 185 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $50,808

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$754	4d	24 Jul 2026	$1.24	11/12	$10,230	$10,458	81%	84%	+$5,066	-$0	0.0%	$51,336 (vs do-nothing +$528)
$753	4d	24 Jul 2026	$1.49	9/12	$10,058	$10,742	78%	82%	+$4,421	-$0	0.0%	$51,465 (vs do-nothing +$657)
$752	4d	24 Jul 2026	$1.78	8/12	$10,680	$11,592	74%	80%	+$4,155	-$0	0.0%	$51,624 (vs do-nothing +$816)
$754	9d	29 Jul 2026	$2.54	12/12	$10,160	$10,160	72%	78%	+$2,863	-$0	0.0%	$52,944 (vs do-nothing +$2,136)
$753	8d	28 Jul 2026	$2.28	12/12	$10,260	$10,260	71%	77%	+$2,758	-$0	0.0%	$52,632 (vs do-nothing +$1,824)
$755	11d	31 Jul 2026	$3.24	12/12	$10,604	$10,604	71%	77%	+$3,004	-$0	0.0%	$53,784 (vs do-nothing +$2,976)
$751	4d	24 Jul 2026	$2.11	7/12	$11,078	$12,218	70%	77%	+$3,804	-$0	0.0%	$51,753 (vs do-nothing +$945)
$754	10d	30 Jul 2026	$3.17	11/12	$10,471	$10,699	70%	77%	+$2,972	-$0	0.0%	$53,462 (vs do-nothing +$2,654)
$753	9d	29 Jul 2026	$2.89	11/12	$10,597	$10,825	69%	76%	+$2,729	-$0	0.0%	$53,151 (vs do-nothing +$2,343)
$754	11d	31 Jul 2026	$3.61	11/12	$10,830	$11,058	69%	76%	+$2,844	-$0	0.0%	$53,943 (vs do-nothing +$3,135)
$752	8d	28 Jul 2026	$2.64	11/12	$10,890	$11,118	69%	75%	+$2,651	-$0	0.0%	$52,876 (vs do-nothing +$2,068)
$753	10d	30 Jul 2026	$3.53	10/12	$10,602	$11,058	68%	75%	+$2,734	-$0	0.0%	$53,582 (vs do-nothing +$2,774)
$752	9d	29 Jul 2026	$3.27	10/12	$10,900	$11,356	67%	74%	+$2,562	-$0	0.0%	$53,318 (vs do-nothing +$2,510)

Show 172 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 172.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$755	18d	7 Aug 2026	$5.03	12/12	$10,060	$10,060	67%	74%	+$2,428	-$0	0.0%	$55,932 (vs do-nothing +$5,124)
$753	11d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	10/12	$10,909	$11,365	66%	74%	+$2,644	-$0	0.0%	$54,048 (vs do-nothing +$3,240)
$750	4d	24 Jul 2026	$2.48	6/12	$11,160	$12,528	66%	75%	+$3,374	-$0	0.0%	$51,840 (vs do-nothing +$1,032)
$751	8d	28 Jul 2026	$3.02	9/12	$10,192	$10,876	65%	73%	+$2,207	-$0	0.0%	$52,842 (vs do-nothing +$2,034)
$752	10d	30 Jul 2026	$3.93	9/12	$10,619	$11,303	65%	74%	+$2,508	-$0	0.0%	$53,664 (vs do-nothing +$2,856)
$754	18d	7 Aug 2026	$5.46	12/12	$10,920	$10,920	65%	73%	+$2,489	-$0	0.0%	$56,448 (vs do-nothing +$5,640)
$751	9d	29 Jul 2026	$3.66	9/12	$10,980	$11,664	64%	73%	+$2,838	-$0	0.0%	$53,418 (vs do-nothing +$2,610)
$752	11d	31 Jul 2026	$4.42	9/12	$10,849	$11,533	64%	73%	+$2,437	-$0	0.0%	$54,102 (vs do-nothing +$3,294)
$750	7d	27 Jul 2026	$3.03	8/12	$10,389	$11,301	63%	72%	+$1,730	-$0	0.0%	$52,624 (vs do-nothing +$1,816)
$753	18d	7 Aug 2026	$5.91	11/12	$10,835	$11,063	63%	72%	+$2,330	-$0	0.0%	$56,473 (vs do-nothing +$5,665)
$754	25d	14 Aug 2026	$7.20	12/12	$10,368	$10,368	63%	72%	+$2,342	-$0	0.0%	$58,536 (vs do-nothing +$7,728)
$751	10d	30 Jul 2026	$4.35	8/12	$10,442	$11,354	63%	72%	+$2,243	-$0	0.0%	$53,681 (vs do-nothing +$2,873)
$750	8d	28 Jul 2026	$3.42	8/12	$10,260	$11,172	62%	72%	+$1,941	-$0	0.0%	$52,936 (vs do-nothing +$2,128)
$751	11d	31 Jul 2026	$4.84	8/12	$10,560	$11,472	62%	72%	+$2,156	-$0	0.0%	$54,072 (vs do-nothing +$3,264)
$750	9d	29 Jul 2026	$4.09	8/12	$10,907	$11,819	61%	71%	+$2,052	-$0	0.0%	$53,472 (vs do-nothing +$2,664)
$752	18d	7 Aug 2026	$6.38	10/12	$10,633	$11,089	61%	71%	+$2,157	-$0	0.0%	$56,428 (vs do-nothing +$5,620)
$753	25d	14 Aug 2026	$7.68	11/12	$10,138	$10,366	61%	71%	+$2,181	-$0	0.0%	$58,420 (vs do-nothing +$7,612)
$750	10d	30 Jul 2026	$4.72	8/12	$11,328	$12,240	60%	71%	+$2,066	-$0	0.0%	$53,976 (vs do-nothing +$3,168)
$749	7d	27 Jul 2026	$3.45	7/12	$10,350	$11,490	60%	70%	+$1,681	-$0	0.0%	$52,691 (vs do-nothing +$1,883)
$750	14d	3 Aug 2026	$6.05	8/12	$10,374	$11,286	60%	73%	+$3,159	-$0	0.0%	$55,041 (vs do-nothing +$4,233)
$752	25d	14 Aug 2026	$8.19	11/12	$10,811	$11,039	60%	71%	+$2,229	-$0	0.0%	$58,981 (vs do-nothing +$8,173)
$750	11d	31 Jul 2026	$5.32	7/12	$10,156	$11,296	60%	70%	+$1,935	-$0	0.0%	$54,000 (vs do-nothing +$3,192)
$749	8d	28 Jul 2026	$3.86	7/12	$10,132	$11,272	59%	70%	+$1,684	-$0	0.0%	$52,978 (vs do-nothing +$2,170)
$751	18d	7 Aug 2026	$6.87	9/12	$10,305	$10,989	59%	70%	+$1,971	-$0	0.0%	$56,307 (vs do-nothing +$5,499)
$749	9d	29 Jul 2026	$4.55	7/12	$10,617	$11,757	59%	70%	+$1,784	-$0	0.0%	$53,461 (vs do-nothing +$2,653)
$748	4d	24 Jul 2026	$3.31	5/12	$12,412	$14,008	58%	70%	+$2,810	-$0	0.0%	$52,083 (vs do-nothing +$1,275)
$751	25d	14 Aug 2026	$8.70	10/12	$10,440	$10,896	58%	70%	+$2,047	-$0	0.0%	$58,748 (vs do-nothing +$7,940)
$749	10d	30 Jul 2026	$5.26	7/12	$11,052	$12,192	58%	70%	+$1,956	-$0	0.0%	$53,960 (vs do-nothing +$3,152)
$750	18d	7 Aug 2026	$7.38	9/12	$11,070	$11,754	58%	69%	+$1,997	-$0	0.0%	$56,766 (vs do-nothing +$5,958)
$749	11d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	7/12	$11,073	$12,213	57%	69%	+$1,926	-$0	0.0%	$54,336 (vs do-nothing +$3,528)
$748	7d	27 Jul 2026	$3.91	6/12	$10,054	$11,422	57%	69%	+$1,596	-$0	0.0%	$52,698 (vs do-nothing +$1,890)
$750	25d	14 Aug 2026	$9.24	10/12	$11,088	$11,544	57%	69%	+$2,079	-$0	0.0%	$59,288 (vs do-nothing +$8,480)
$748	8d	28 Jul 2026	$4.33	7/12	$11,366	$12,506	57%	68%	+$1,648	-$0	0.0%	$53,307 (vs do-nothing +$2,499)
$749	18d	7 Aug 2026	$7.90	8/12	$10,533	$11,445	56%	68%	+$1,780	-$0	0.0%	$56,520 (vs do-nothing +$5,712)
$748	9d	29 Jul 2026	$5.03	6/12	$10,060	$11,428	56%	68%	+$1,490	-$0	0.0%	$53,370 (vs do-nothing +$2,562)
$748	10d	30 Jul 2026	$5.75	6/12	$10,346	$11,714	55%	69%	+$1,646	-$0	0.0%	$53,801 (vs do-nothing +$2,992)
$749	25d	14 Aug 2026	$9.79	9/12	$10,573	$11,257	55%	68%	+$1,889	-$0	0.0%	$58,935 (vs do-nothing +$8,127)
$748	11d	31 Jul 2026	$6.30	6/12	$10,309	$11,677	55%	68%	+$1,628	-$0	0.0%	$54,132 (vs do-nothing +$3,324)
$747	4d	24 Jul 2026	$3.77	4/12	$11,310	$13,134	55%	68%	+$2,172	-$0	0.0%	$52,012 (vs do-nothing +$1,204)
$748	18d	7 Aug 2026	$8.46	8/12	$11,280	$12,192	54%	68%	+$1,811	-$0	0.0%	$56,968 (vs do-nothing +$6,160)
$747	7d	27 Jul 2026	$4.39	6/12	$11,289	$12,657	54%	67%	+$1,405	-$0	0.0%	$52,986 (vs do-nothing +$2,178)
$748	25d	14 Aug 2026	$10.35	9/12	$11,178	$11,862	54%	68%	+$1,901	-$0	0.0%	$59,439 (vs do-nothing +$8,631)
$747	8d	28 Jul 2026	$4.82	6/12	$10,845	$12,213	54%	67%	+$1,345	-$0	0.0%	$53,244 (vs do-nothing +$2,436)
$747	9d	29 Jul 2026	$5.54	6/12	$11,080	$12,448	53%	67%	+$1,446	-$0	0.0%	$53,676 (vs do-nothing +$2,868)
$747	10d	30 Jul 2026	$6.26	6/12	$11,269	$12,637	53%	67%	+$1,615	-$0	0.0%	$54,108 (vs do-nothing +$3,300)
$747	11d	31 Jul 2026	$6.85	6/12	$11,209	$12,577	53%	67%	+$1,646	-$0	0.0%	$54,462 (vs do-nothing +$3,654)
$747	18d	7 Aug 2026	$9.02	7/12	$10,523	$11,663	53%	67%	+$1,598	-$0	0.0%	$56,590 (vs do-nothing +$5,782)
$747	25d	14 Aug 2026	$10.93	8/12	$10,493	$11,405	52%	67%	+$1,713	-$0	0.0%	$58,944 (vs do-nothing +$8,136)
$746	25d	14 Aug 2026	$11.52	8/12	$11,059	$11,971	51%	66%	+$1,730	-$0	0.0%	$59,416 (vs do-nothing +$8,608)
$746	18d	7 Aug 2026	$9.60	7/12	$11,200	$12,340	51%	66%	+$1,616	-$0	0.0%	$56,996 (vs do-nothing +$6,188)
$746	11d	31 Jul 2026	$7.40	5/12	$10,091	$11,687	51%	66%	+$1,362	-$0	0.0%	$54,128 (vs do-nothing +$3,320)
$746	10d	30 Jul 2026	$6.78	5/12	$10,174	$11,770	51%	66%	+$1,293	-$0	0.0%	$53,820 (vs do-nothing +$3,012)
$746	7d	27 Jul 2026	$4.90	5/12	$10,500	$12,096	51%	65%	+$1,092	-$0	0.0%	$52,878 (vs do-nothing +$2,070)
$746	8d	28 Jul 2026	$5.35	6/12	$12,038	$13,406	51%	66%	+$1,927	-$0	0.0%	$53,562 (vs do-nothing +$2,754)
$746	9d	29 Jul 2026	$6.09	5/12	$10,150	$11,746	51%	65%	+$1,190	-$0	0.0%	$53,473 (vs do-nothing +$2,665)
$745	25d	14 Aug 2026	$12.13	7/12	$10,189	$11,329	50%	66%	+$1,524	-$0	0.0%	$58,767 (vs do-nothing +$7,959)
$745	18d	7 Aug 2026	$10.19	6/12	$10,190	$11,558	49%	65%	+$1,388	-$0	0.0%	$56,466 (vs do-nothing +$5,658)
$745	11d	31 Jul 2026	$7.97	5/12	$10,868	$12,464	49%	65%	+$1,348	-$0	0.0%	$54,413 (vs do-nothing +$3,605)
$745	10d	30 Jul 2026	$7.32	5/12	$10,980	$12,576	49%	65%	+$1,222	-$0	0.0%	$54,088 (vs do-nothing +$3,280)
$745	14d	3 Aug 2026	$8.66	6/12	$11,139	$12,507	49%	68%	+$2,817	-$0	0.0%	$55,550 (vs do-nothing +$4,742)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-20 19:31