FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $747.61

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $694.68 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $747.61 UNDERWATER $16.39 (2.1% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $694.68 (banked floor $693.99) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$18,874/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$51,306	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,437/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$18,874/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.9 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.9 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $694.68 (probe: $735C 14d) still earns $12,497/mo (66% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$617

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$471

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$694.68 → $693.99

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $764C 21 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.39	$471	2026-07-16

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 70 (live) · RSI 62 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 58 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $793.09 (+6%) · daily UBB $759.76 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $694.68 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $755 29 Jul 2026 (9d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $755)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$3,732

Income / mo

$12,440

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.05/sh now → $4.98 mid-life (likely $5.88–$8.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,517 simulated challenges: the $755 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $758 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$755	30 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.58/sh	+$690 cycle +$4,422 [+$439…+$639] · 100% credit	66% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$755	30 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.34/sh	+$408 cycle +$4,140 [+$77…+$322] · 84% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$763	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$1.41/sh	+$1,698 cycle +$5,430 [+$117…+$1,381] · 78% credit	75% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$766	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.04/sh	+$45 cycle +$3,777 [-$1,821…-$391] · 19% credit	78% surv 70%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	14 Aug 2026	20d left	-$2.90/sh	-$3,478 cycle +$254 [-$6,254…-$4,233]	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $3,732 debit $3,478 (93% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$254 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,756/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $756 24 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $756)

81%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$1,476

Income / mo

$11,070

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $4.07–$6.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 903 simulated challenges: the $756 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $759 (overshoots $3.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$756	27 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.07/sh	+$1,285 cycle +$2,761 [+$796…+$1,674] · 100% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$764	7 Aug 2026	16d left	+$1.48/sh	+$1,775 cycle +$3,251 [+$220…+$1,716] · 79% credit	75% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$757	27 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.26/sh	+$313 cycle +$1,789 [-$399…+$440] · 49% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$771	14 Aug 2026	23d left	+$0.32/sh	+$383 cycle +$1,859 [-$1,717…+$234] · 31% credit	81% surv 76%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	14 Aug 2026	23d left	-$1.20/sh	-$1,437 cycle +$39 [-$3,989…-$1,684] · 3% credit	86% surv 83%
budget: banked $1,476 debit $1,437 (97% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$39 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,805/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $774 7 Aug 2026 (18d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $774)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$960

Income / mo

$1,600

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.95/sh now → $7.74 mid-life (likely $6.38–$10.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 537 simulated challenges: the $774 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 18, at $777 (overshoots $3.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$774	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$1.42/sh	+$1,703 cycle +$2,663 [+$1,410…+$2,903] · 100% credit	70% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$775	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.56/sh	+$667 cycle +$1,627 [+$219…+$1,766] · 87% credit	71% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$775	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.56/sh	+$667 cycle +$1,627 [+$219…+$1,766] · 87% credit	71% surv 54%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$777	14 Aug 2026	16d left	-$0.62/sh	-$744 cycle +$216 [-$1,388…+$153] · 29% credit	73% surv 58%
budget: banked $960 debit $744 (78% used ≈ 2.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$216 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $16,029/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (203 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (9 expiries scanned, 203 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $52,542

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$756	4d	24 Jul 2026	$1.23	11/12	$10,148	$10,456	81%	84%	+$4,887	-$0	0.0%	$52,762 (vs do-nothing +$220)
$755	4d	24 Jul 2026	$1.54	9/12	$10,395	$11,322	78%	82%	+$4,675	-$0	0.0%	$53,001 (vs do-nothing +$459)
$755	7d	27 Jul 2026	$2.04	11/12	$9,617	$9,926	74%	80%	+$3,766	-$0	0.0%	$53,653 (vs do-nothing +$1,111)
$757	9d	29 Jul 2026	$2.36	12/12	$9,440	$9,440	74%	79%	+$3,059	-$0	0.0%	$54,138 (vs do-nothing +$1,596)
$754	4d	24 Jul 2026	$1.88	7/12	$9,870	$11,415	74%	80%	+$4,016	-$0	0.0%	$53,137 (vs do-nothing +$595)
$758	11d	31 Jul 2026	$3.04	12/12	$9,949	$9,949	74%	79%	+$3,747	-$0	0.0%	$54,954 (vs do-nothing +$2,412)
$757	10d	30 Jul 2026	$2.92	11/12	$9,636	$9,945	73%	79%	+$3,546	-$0	0.0%	$54,621 (vs do-nothing +$2,079)
$755	8d	28 Jul 2026	$2.41	11/12	$9,941	$10,250	73%	79%	+$3,711	-$0	0.0%	$54,060 (vs do-nothing +$1,518)
$756	9d	29 Jul 2026	$2.71	11/12	$9,937	$10,246	72%	78%	+$3,231	-$0	0.0%	$54,390 (vs do-nothing +$1,848)
$757	11d	31 Jul 2026	$3.41	11/12	$10,230	$10,539	72%	78%	+$3,639	-$0	0.0%	$55,160 (vs do-nothing +$2,618)
$754	7d	27 Jul 2026	$2.41	10/12	$10,329	$10,947	71%	78%	+$3,710	-$0	0.0%	$53,922 (vs do-nothing +$1,380)
$756	10d	30 Jul 2026	$3.30	10/12	$9,900	$10,518	71%	77%	+$3,446	-$0	0.0%	$54,812 (vs do-nothing +$2,270)
$753	4d	24 Jul 2026	$2.27	6/12	$10,215	$12,069	70%	77%	+$3,806	-$0	0.0%	$53,286 (vs do-nothing +$744)

Show 190 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 190.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$758	18d	7 Aug 2026	$4.92	12/12	$9,840	$9,840	70%	78%	+$3,879	-$0	0.0%	$57,210 (vs do-nothing +$4,668)
$755	9d	29 Jul 2026	$3.11	10/12	$10,367	$10,985	70%	77%	+$3,408	-$0	0.0%	$54,622 (vs do-nothing +$2,080)
$756	11d	31 Jul 2026	$3.82	10/12	$10,418	$11,036	69%	77%	+$3,523	-$0	0.0%	$55,332 (vs do-nothing +$2,790)
$754	8d	28 Jul 2026	$2.82	9/12	$9,518	$10,444	68%	75%	+$2,332	-$0	0.0%	$54,153 (vs do-nothing +$1,611)
$755	10d	30 Jul 2026	$3.72	9/12	$10,044	$10,971	68%	76%	+$3,319	-$0	0.0%	$54,963 (vs do-nothing +$2,421)
$757	18d	7 Aug 2026	$5.36	11/12	$9,827	$10,136	68%	77%	+$3,845	-$0	0.0%	$57,305 (vs do-nothing +$4,763)
$754	9d	29 Jul 2026	$3.53	9/12	$10,590	$11,517	67%	76%	+$3,470	-$0	0.0%	$54,792 (vs do-nothing +$2,250)
$755	11d	31 Jul 2026	$4.26	9/12	$10,456	$11,383	67%	75%	+$3,364	-$0	0.0%	$55,449 (vs do-nothing +$2,907)
$753	7d	27 Jul 2026	$2.83	8/12	$9,703	$10,939	67%	74%	+$2,278	-$0	0.0%	$53,982 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)
$753	8d	28 Jul 2026	$3.25	8/12	$9,750	$10,986	67%	75%	+$3,159	-$0	0.0%	$54,318 (vs do-nothing +$1,776)
$752	4d	24 Jul 2026	$2.70	5/12	$10,125	$12,288	66%	75%	+$3,445	-$0	0.0%	$53,377 (vs do-nothing +$835)
$758	25d	14 Aug 2026	$6.67	12/12	$9,605	$9,605	66%	75%	+$3,242	-$0	0.0%	$59,310 (vs do-nothing +$6,768)
$755	14d	3 Aug 2026	$4.73	10/12	$10,136	$10,754	66%	75%	+$3,172	-$0	0.0%	$56,242 (vs do-nothing +$3,700)
$754	10d	30 Jul 2026	$4.16	8/12	$9,984	$11,220	66%	75%	+$3,113	-$0	0.0%	$55,046 (vs do-nothing +$2,504)
$756	18d	7 Aug 2026	$5.83	10/12	$9,717	$10,335	66%	75%	+$3,141	-$0	0.0%	$57,342 (vs do-nothing +$4,800)
$757	25d	14 Aug 2026	$7.15	11/12	$9,438	$9,747	65%	74%	+$3,072	-$0	0.0%	$59,274 (vs do-nothing +$6,732)
$754	11d	31 Jul 2026	$4.72	8/12	$10,298	$11,534	65%	74%	+$3,139	-$0	0.0%	$55,494 (vs do-nothing +$2,952)
$753	9d	29 Jul 2026	$3.99	8/12	$10,640	$11,876	65%	74%	+$3,262	-$0	0.0%	$54,910 (vs do-nothing +$2,368)
$755	18d	7 Aug 2026	$6.32	9/12	$9,480	$10,407	65%	75%	+$3,651	-$0	0.0%	$57,303 (vs do-nothing +$4,761)
$752	7d	27 Jul 2026	$3.28	7/12	$9,840	$11,385	64%	73%	+$2,372	-$0	0.0%	$54,117 (vs do-nothing +$1,575)
$752	8d	28 Jul 2026	$3.72	7/12	$9,765	$11,310	63%	73%	+$2,944	-$0	0.0%	$54,425 (vs do-nothing +$1,883)
$753	10d	30 Jul 2026	$4.63	7/12	$9,723	$11,268	63%	73%	+$2,862	-$0	0.0%	$55,062 (vs do-nothing +$2,520)
$756	25d	14 Aug 2026	$7.66	11/12	$10,111	$10,420	63%	74%	+$3,184	-$0	0.0%	$59,835 (vs do-nothing +$7,293)
$754	18d	7 Aug 2026	$6.84	9/12	$10,260	$11,187	63%	74%	+$3,918	-$0	0.0%	$57,771 (vs do-nothing +$5,229)
$751	4d	24 Jul 2026	$3.18	4/12	$9,540	$12,012	63%	73%	+$2,976	-$0	0.0%	$53,402 (vs do-nothing +$860)
$755	25d	14 Aug 2026	$8.18	10/12	$9,816	$10,434	63%	74%	+$3,770	-$0	0.0%	$59,692 (vs do-nothing +$7,150)
$753	11d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	7/12	$9,927	$11,472	62%	73%	+$2,856	-$0	0.0%	$55,461 (vs do-nothing +$2,919)
$752	9d	29 Jul 2026	$4.48	7/12	$10,453	$11,998	62%	73%	+$3,023	-$0	0.0%	$54,957 (vs do-nothing +$2,415)
$751	7d	27 Jul 2026	$3.78	6/12	$9,720	$11,574	61%	72%	+$2,770	-$0	0.0%	$54,192 (vs do-nothing +$1,650)
$753	18d	7 Aug 2026	$7.37	8/12	$9,827	$11,063	61%	74%	+$3,705	-$0	0.0%	$57,614 (vs do-nothing +$5,072)
$752	10d	30 Jul 2026	$5.13	7/12	$10,773	$12,318	61%	72%	+$2,992	-$0	0.0%	$55,412 (vs do-nothing +$2,870)
$751	8d	28 Jul 2026	$4.23	6/12	$9,518	$11,372	60%	72%	+$2,681	-$0	0.0%	$54,462 (vs do-nothing +$1,920)
$754	25d	14 Aug 2026	$8.72	10/12	$10,464	$11,082	60%	72%	+$3,068	-$0	0.0%	$60,232 (vs do-nothing +$7,690)
$752	11d	31 Jul 2026	$5.72	7/12	$10,920	$12,465	60%	72%	+$2,983	-$0	0.0%	$55,825 (vs do-nothing +$3,283)
$750	4d	24 Jul 2026	$3.69	4/12	$11,070	$13,542	60%	74%	+$4,422	-$0	0.0%	$53,606 (vs do-nothing +$1,064)
$751	9d	29 Jul 2026	$5.00	6/12	$10,000	$11,854	59%	71%	+$2,703	-$0	0.0%	$54,924 (vs do-nothing +$2,382)
$751	11d	31 Jul 2026	$6.27	6/12	$10,260	$12,114	59%	73%	+$3,872	-$0	0.0%	$55,686 (vs do-nothing +$3,144)
$753	25d	14 Aug 2026	$9.27	9/12	$10,012	$10,939	59%	71%	+$2,828	-$0	0.0%	$59,958 (vs do-nothing +$7,416)
$751	10d	30 Jul 2026	$5.66	6/12	$10,188	$12,042	58%	71%	+$2,668	-$0	0.0%	$55,320 (vs do-nothing +$2,778)
$752	18d	7 Aug 2026	$7.89	8/12	$10,520	$11,756	58%	71%	+$2,832	-$0	0.0%	$58,030 (vs do-nothing +$5,488)
$750	7d	27 Jul 2026	$4.31	6/12	$11,083	$12,937	58%	71%	+$2,930	-$0	0.0%	$54,510 (vs do-nothing +$1,968)
$750	8d	28 Jul 2026	$4.77	6/12	$10,732	$12,586	57%	70%	+$2,819	-$0	0.0%	$54,786 (vs do-nothing +$2,244)
$752	25d	14 Aug 2026	$9.85	8/12	$9,456	$10,692	57%	71%	+$2,594	-$0	0.0%	$59,598 (vs do-nothing +$7,056)
$750	9d	29 Jul 2026	$5.55	6/12	$11,100	$12,954	57%	70%	+$2,856	-$0	0.0%	$55,254 (vs do-nothing +$2,712)
$751	18d	7 Aug 2026	$8.46	7/12	$9,870	$11,415	56%	70%	+$2,563	-$0	0.0%	$57,743 (vs do-nothing +$5,201)
$750	11d	31 Jul 2026	$6.84	6/12	$11,193	$13,047	56%	72%	+$4,130	-$0	0.0%	$56,028 (vs do-nothing +$3,486)
$751	25d	14 Aug 2026	$10.41	8/12	$9,994	$11,230	56%	72%	+$3,654	-$0	0.0%	$60,046 (vs do-nothing +$7,504)
$750	10d	30 Jul 2026	$6.21	6/12	$11,178	$13,032	56%	70%	+$2,765	-$0	0.0%	$55,650 (vs do-nothing +$3,108)
$750	14d	3 Aug 2026	$7.34	7/12	$11,010	$12,555	55%	69%	+$2,700	-$0	0.0%	$56,959 (vs do-nothing +$4,417)
$749	4d	24 Jul 2026	$4.24	3/12	$9,540	$12,321	55%	70%	+$2,536	-$0	0.0%	$53,505 (vs do-nothing +$963)
$750	18d	7 Aug 2026	$9.05	7/12	$10,558	$12,103	55%	69%	+$2,641	-$0	0.0%	$58,156 (vs do-nothing +$5,614)
$749	7d	27 Jul 2026	$4.87	5/12	$10,436	$12,599	55%	69%	+$2,555	-$0	0.0%	$54,462 (vs do-nothing +$1,920)
$750	25d	14 Aug 2026	$11.01	8/12	$10,570	$11,806	55%	72%	+$3,809	-$0	0.0%	$60,526 (vs do-nothing +$7,984)
$749	8d	28 Jul 2026	$5.34	5/12	$10,012	$12,175	54%	69%	+$2,450	-$0	0.0%	$54,697 (vs do-nothing +$2,155)
$749	9d	29 Jul 2026	$6.12	5/12	$10,200	$12,363	54%	69%	+$2,458	-$0	0.0%	$55,087 (vs do-nothing +$2,545)
$749	11d	31 Jul 2026	$7.42	5/12	$10,118	$12,281	54%	71%	+$3,631	-$0	0.0%	$55,737 (vs do-nothing +$3,195)
$749	10d	30 Jul 2026	$6.79	5/12	$10,185	$12,348	54%	69%	+$2,369	-$0	0.0%	$55,422 (vs do-nothing +$2,880)
$749	18d	7 Aug 2026	$9.66	6/12	$9,660	$11,514	53%	71%	+$3,395	-$0	0.0%	$57,720 (vs do-nothing +$5,178)
$749	25d	14 Aug 2026	$11.63	7/12	$9,769	$11,314	53%	71%	+$3,469	-$0	0.0%	$59,962 (vs do-nothing +$7,420)
$748	4d	24 Jul 2026	$4.84	3/12	$10,890	$13,671	52%	68%	+$2,647	-$0	0.0%	$53,685 (vs do-nothing +$1,143)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-20 21:37