FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $745.57

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.96 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $745.57 UNDERWATER $18.43 (2.4% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.96 (banked floor $693.26) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$21,253/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$49,104	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,627/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$21,253/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.0 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.0 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $693.96 (probe: $735C 14d) still earns $12,613/mo (59% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$617

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$471

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$693.96 → $693.26

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $764C 21 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.39	$471	2026-07-16

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 69 (live) · RSI 61 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 52 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $792.81 (+6%) · daily UBB $759.47 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $693.96 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $755 3 Aug 2026 (14d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $755)

70%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$4,428

Income / mo

$9,489

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.64/sh now → $6.11 mid-life (likely $6.94–$9.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,501 simulated challenges: the $755 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 14, at $758 (overshoots $2.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$755	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.73/sh	+$2,082 cycle +$6,510 [+$1,434…+$1,946] · 99% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$760	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.94/sh	+$1,133 cycle +$5,561 [-$236…+$861] · 65% credit	71% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$757	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.33/sh	+$394 cycle +$4,822 [-$520…+$138] · 34% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$761	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.43/sh	+$522 cycle +$4,950 [-$936…+$203] · 29% credit	72% surv 62%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$771	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$3.51/sh	-$4,214 cycle +$214 [-$6,674…-$4,896]	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $4,428 debit $4,214 (95% used ≈ 1.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$214 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $5,199/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $754 24 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $754)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$1,380

Income / mo

$10,350

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.80/sh now → $3.39 mid-life (likely $3.72–$6.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,021 simulated challenges: the $754 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $757 (overshoots $3.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$754	27 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.07/sh	+$1,280 cycle +$2,660 [+$845…+$1,669] · 100% credit	66% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$762	14 Aug 2026	23d left	+$3.37/sh	+$4,046 cycle +$5,426 [+$2,712…+$4,086] · 99% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$755	27 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.28/sh	+$332 cycle +$1,712 [-$318…+$473] · 51% credit	68% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$770	14 Aug 2026	23d left	+$0.09/sh	+$114 cycle +$1,494 [-$1,923…-$39] · 24% credit	81% surv 77%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$774	14 Aug 2026	23d left	-$1.04/sh	-$1,252 cycle +$128 [-$3,622…-$1,469] · 3% credit	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $1,380 debit $1,252 (91% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$128 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,675/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $774 14 Aug 2026 (25d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $774)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,488

Income / mo

$1,786

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (191 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (9 expiries scanned, 191 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.804 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $49,944

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$753	4d	24 Jul 2026	$1.43	10/12	$10,725	$11,145	77%	81%	+$3,726	-$0	0.0%	$50,674 (vs do-nothing +$730)
$752	4d	24 Jul 2026	$1.75	9/12	$11,812	$12,442	73%	79%	+$3,721	-$0	0.0%	$50,889 (vs do-nothing +$945)
$755	11d	31 Jul 2026	$3.27	12/12	$10,702	$10,702	71%	77%	+$3,256	-$0	0.0%	$53,028 (vs do-nothing +$3,084)
$752	7d	27 Jul 2026	$2.26	11/12	$10,654	$10,864	71%	77%	+$3,049	-$0	0.0%	$51,660 (vs do-nothing +$1,716)
$754	10d	30 Jul 2026	$3.15	12/12	$11,340	$11,340	70%	77%	+$3,305	-$0	0.0%	$52,884 (vs do-nothing +$2,940)
$751	4d	24 Jul 2026	$2.11	7/12	$11,078	$12,128	70%	76%	+$3,161	-$0	0.0%	$50,931 (vs do-nothing +$987)
$753	9d	29 Jul 2026	$2.93	11/12	$10,743	$10,953	70%	76%	+$2,836	-$0	0.0%	$52,397 (vs do-nothing +$2,453)
$752	8d	28 Jul 2026	$2.65	11/12	$10,931	$11,141	69%	76%	+$3,051	-$0	0.0%	$52,089 (vs do-nothing +$2,145)
$754	11d	31 Jul 2026	$3.66	11/12	$10,980	$11,190	69%	76%	+$3,144	-$0	0.0%	$53,200 (vs do-nothing +$3,256)
$753	10d	30 Jul 2026	$3.55	10/12	$10,650	$11,070	68%	75%	+$2,914	-$0	0.0%	$52,794 (vs do-nothing +$2,850)
$751	7d	27 Jul 2026	$2.65	10/12	$11,357	$11,777	68%	75%	+$2,944	-$0	0.0%	$51,894 (vs do-nothing +$1,950)
$752	9d	29 Jul 2026	$3.33	10/12	$11,100	$11,520	67%	75%	+$2,921	-$0	0.0%	$52,574 (vs do-nothing +$2,630)
$753	11d	31 Jul 2026	$4.08	10/12	$11,127	$11,547	67%	75%	+$3,000	-$0	0.0%	$53,324 (vs do-nothing +$3,380)

Show 178 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 178.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$751	8d	28 Jul 2026	$3.06	10/12	$11,475	$11,895	66%	74%	+$2,938	-$0	0.0%	$52,304 (vs do-nothing +$2,360)
$750	4d	24 Jul 2026	$2.51	6/12	$11,295	$12,555	66%	74%	+$2,917	-$0	0.0%	$51,030 (vs do-nothing +$1,086)
$752	10d	30 Jul 2026	$3.98	9/12	$10,746	$11,376	66%	74%	+$2,761	-$0	0.0%	$52,896 (vs do-nothing +$2,952)
$754	18d	7 Aug 2026	$5.63	12/12	$11,260	$11,260	65%	74%	+$3,068	-$0	0.0%	$55,860 (vs do-nothing +$5,916)
$752	11d	31 Jul 2026	$4.53	9/12	$11,119	$11,749	64%	73%	+$2,826	-$0	0.0%	$53,391 (vs do-nothing +$3,447)
$751	9d	29 Jul 2026	$3.76	9/12	$11,280	$11,910	64%	73%	+$2,729	-$0	0.0%	$52,698 (vs do-nothing +$2,754)
$750	7d	27 Jul 2026	$3.08	9/12	$11,880	$12,510	64%	73%	+$2,798	-$0	0.0%	$52,086 (vs do-nothing +$2,142)
$753	18d	7 Aug 2026	$6.11	11/12	$11,202	$11,412	64%	73%	+$2,994	-$0	0.0%	$55,895 (vs do-nothing +$5,951)
$750	8d	28 Jul 2026	$3.51	9/12	$11,846	$12,476	63%	73%	+$2,791	-$0	0.0%	$52,473 (vs do-nothing +$2,529)
$754	25d	14 Aug 2026	$7.44	12/12	$10,714	$10,714	63%	73%	+$2,969	-$0	0.0%	$58,032 (vs do-nothing +$8,088)
$751	10d	30 Jul 2026	$4.43	8/12	$10,632	$11,472	63%	73%	+$2,550	-$0	0.0%	$52,928 (vs do-nothing +$2,984)
$749	4d	24 Jul 2026	$2.96	5/12	$11,100	$12,570	63%	72%	+$2,618	-$0	0.0%	$51,074 (vs do-nothing +$1,130)
$751	11d	31 Jul 2026	$5.00	8/12	$10,909	$11,749	62%	72%	+$2,608	-$0	0.0%	$53,384 (vs do-nothing +$3,440)
$750	9d	29 Jul 2026	$4.23	8/12	$11,280	$12,120	62%	72%	+$2,450	-$0	0.0%	$52,768 (vs do-nothing +$2,824)
$752	18d	7 Aug 2026	$6.61	10/12	$11,017	$11,437	62%	72%	+$2,774	-$0	0.0%	$55,854 (vs do-nothing +$5,910)
$753	25d	14 Aug 2026	$7.95	12/12	$11,448	$11,448	62%	72%	+$3,054	-$0	0.0%	$58,644 (vs do-nothing +$8,700)
$749	7d	27 Jul 2026	$3.55	7/12	$10,650	$11,700	61%	71%	+$2,306	-$0	0.0%	$51,939 (vs do-nothing +$1,995)
$750	10d	30 Jul 2026	$4.91	8/12	$11,784	$12,624	61%	71%	+$2,643	-$0	0.0%	$53,312 (vs do-nothing +$3,368)
$749	8d	28 Jul 2026	$3.99	8/12	$11,970	$12,810	60%	71%	+$2,585	-$0	0.0%	$52,576 (vs do-nothing +$2,632)
$752	25d	14 Aug 2026	$8.48	11/12	$11,194	$11,404	60%	71%	+$2,875	-$0	0.0%	$58,502 (vs do-nothing +$8,558)
$750	11d	31 Jul 2026	$5.49	8/12	$11,978	$12,818	60%	71%	+$2,682	-$0	0.0%	$53,776 (vs do-nothing +$3,832)
$751	18d	7 Aug 2026	$7.12	9/12	$10,680	$11,310	60%	71%	+$2,496	-$0	0.0%	$55,722 (vs do-nothing +$5,778)
$749	9d	29 Jul 2026	$4.72	7/12	$11,013	$12,063	60%	71%	+$2,896	-$0	0.0%	$52,758 (vs do-nothing +$2,814)
$750	14d	3 Aug 2026	$5.99	9/12	$11,552	$12,182	59%	71%	+$2,568	-$0	0.0%	$54,705 (vs do-nothing +$4,761)
$748	4d	24 Jul 2026	$3.44	5/12	$12,900	$14,370	59%	70%	+$2,738	-$0	0.0%	$51,314 (vs do-nothing +$1,370)
$751	25d	14 Aug 2026	$9.02	10/12	$10,824	$11,244	59%	71%	+$2,667	-$0	0.0%	$58,264 (vs do-nothing +$8,320)
$749	10d	30 Jul 2026	$5.42	7/12	$11,382	$12,432	58%	70%	+$2,393	-$0	0.0%	$53,248 (vs do-nothing +$3,304)
$750	18d	7 Aug 2026	$7.66	9/12	$11,490	$12,120	58%	70%	+$2,646	-$0	0.0%	$56,208 (vs do-nothing +$6,264)
$748	7d	27 Jul 2026	$4.05	7/12	$12,150	$13,200	58%	70%	+$2,414	-$0	0.0%	$52,289 (vs do-nothing +$2,345)
$749	11d	31 Jul 2026	$6.01	7/12	$11,474	$12,524	58%	70%	+$2,401	-$0	0.0%	$53,661 (vs do-nothing +$3,717)
$748	8d	28 Jul 2026	$4.50	7/12	$11,812	$12,862	57%	69%	+$2,333	-$0	0.0%	$52,604 (vs do-nothing +$2,660)
$750	25d	14 Aug 2026	$9.59	10/12	$11,508	$11,928	57%	70%	+$2,740	-$0	0.0%	$58,834 (vs do-nothing +$8,890)
$748	9d	29 Jul 2026	$5.25	7/12	$12,250	$13,300	57%	69%	+$2,385	-$0	0.0%	$53,129 (vs do-nothing +$3,185)
$749	18d	7 Aug 2026	$8.22	8/12	$10,960	$11,800	56%	69%	+$2,426	-$0	0.0%	$55,960 (vs do-nothing +$6,016)
$748	11d	31 Jul 2026	$6.57	6/12	$10,751	$12,011	56%	71%	+$3,547	-$0	0.0%	$53,466 (vs do-nothing +$3,522)
$748	10d	30 Jul 2026	$5.96	6/12	$10,728	$11,988	56%	69%	+$2,123	-$0	0.0%	$53,100 (vs do-nothing +$3,156)
$749	25d	14 Aug 2026	$10.16	9/12	$10,973	$11,603	56%	69%	+$2,530	-$0	0.0%	$58,458 (vs do-nothing +$8,514)
$747	4d	24 Jul 2026	$3.96	4/12	$11,880	$13,560	55%	68%	+$2,265	-$0	0.0%	$51,248 (vs do-nothing +$1,304)
$747	7d	27 Jul 2026	$4.59	6/12	$11,803	$13,063	55%	68%	+$2,158	-$0	0.0%	$52,278 (vs do-nothing +$2,334)
$748	18d	7 Aug 2026	$8.79	8/12	$11,720	$12,560	55%	69%	+$2,492	-$0	0.0%	$56,416 (vs do-nothing +$6,472)
$747	8d	28 Jul 2026	$5.05	6/12	$11,362	$12,622	54%	68%	+$2,074	-$0	0.0%	$52,554 (vs do-nothing +$2,610)
$748	25d	14 Aug 2026	$10.75	9/12	$11,610	$12,240	54%	69%	+$2,580	-$0	0.0%	$58,989 (vs do-nothing +$9,045)
$747	9d	29 Jul 2026	$5.80	6/12	$11,600	$12,860	54%	68%	+$2,121	-$0	0.0%	$53,004 (vs do-nothing +$3,060)
$747	10d	30 Jul 2026	$6.52	6/12	$11,736	$12,996	54%	68%	+$2,186	-$0	0.0%	$53,436 (vs do-nothing +$3,492)
$747	11d	31 Jul 2026	$7.14	6/12	$11,684	$12,944	53%	68%	+$2,211	-$0	0.0%	$53,808 (vs do-nothing +$3,864)
$747	18d	7 Aug 2026	$9.39	7/12	$10,955	$12,005	53%	68%	+$2,238	-$0	0.0%	$56,027 (vs do-nothing +$6,083)
$747	25d	14 Aug 2026	$11.36	8/12	$10,906	$11,746	53%	68%	+$2,333	-$0	0.0%	$58,472 (vs do-nothing +$8,528)
$746	4d	24 Jul 2026	$4.51	4/12	$13,530	$15,210	52%	67%	+$2,294	-$0	0.0%	$51,468 (vs do-nothing +$1,524)
$746	7d	27 Jul 2026	$5.15	5/12	$11,036	$12,506	52%	67%	+$1,821	-$0	0.0%	$52,169 (vs do-nothing +$2,225)
$746	8d	28 Jul 2026	$5.62	6/12	$12,645	$13,905	52%	67%	+$2,113	-$0	0.0%	$52,896 (vs do-nothing +$2,952)
$746	9d	29 Jul 2026	$6.37	6/12	$12,740	$14,000	51%	67%	+$2,137	-$0	0.0%	$53,346 (vs do-nothing +$3,402)
$746	11d	31 Jul 2026	$7.73	6/12	$12,649	$13,909	51%	69%	+$3,954	-$0	0.0%	$54,162 (vs do-nothing +$4,218)
$746	10d	30 Jul 2026	$7.10	5/12	$10,650	$12,120	51%	67%	+$1,837	-$0	0.0%	$53,144 (vs do-nothing +$3,200)
$746	18d	7 Aug 2026	$10.00	7/12	$11,667	$12,717	51%	67%	+$2,264	-$0	0.0%	$56,454 (vs do-nothing +$6,510)
$746	25d	14 Aug 2026	$11.99	8/12	$11,510	$12,350	51%	70%	+$3,719	-$0	0.0%	$58,976 (vs do-nothing +$9,032)
$745	25d	14 Aug 2026	$12.62	8/12	$12,115	$12,955	50%	67%	+$2,323	-$0	0.0%	$59,480 (vs do-nothing +$9,536)
$745	18d	7 Aug 2026	$10.62	7/12	$12,390	$13,440	50%	66%	+$2,268	-$0	0.0%	$56,888 (vs do-nothing +$6,944)
$745	14d	3 Aug 2026	$8.84	6/12	$11,366	$12,626	49%	68%	+$2,985	-$0	0.0%	$54,828 (vs do-nothing +$4,884)
$745	10d	30 Jul 2026	$7.70	5/12	$11,550	$13,020	49%	66%	+$1,837	-$0	0.0%	$53,444 (vs do-nothing +$3,500)
$745	9d	29 Jul 2026	$6.97	5/12	$11,617	$13,087	49%	65%	+$1,772	-$0	0.0%	$53,079 (vs do-nothing +$3,135)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-20 22:52