FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $736.65

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $691.97 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $736.65 UNDERWATER $27.35 (3.6% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $691.97 (banked floor $690.46) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$25,200/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$42,138	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$12,600/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$25,200/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $691.97 (probe: $725C 14d) still earns $16,354/mo (65% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$1,336

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$691.97 → $690.46

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 11 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $792.28 (+8%) · daily UBB $758.40 · 1-wk expected move ±$15 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $691.97 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $742 27 Jul 2026 (4d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $742)

70%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$2,604

Income / mo

$19,530

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.80/sh now → $3.39 mid-life (likely $4.04–$6.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,368 simulated challenges: the $742 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $745 (overshoots $3.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$742	28 Jul 2026	3d left	+$0.87/sh	+$1,044 cycle +$3,648 [+$768…+$988] · 100% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$754	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$2.31/sh	+$2,771 cycle +$5,375 [+$964…+$2,539] · 88% credit	77% surv 69%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$743	28 Jul 2026	3d left	+$0.12/sh	+$143 cycle +$2,747 [-$453…-$19] · 21% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$760	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.04/sh	+$42 cycle +$2,646 [-$2,309…-$360] · 17% credit	82% surv 78%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$769	14 Aug 2026	20d left	-$2.10/sh	-$2,518 cycle +$86 [-$5,581…-$3,131]	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $2,604 debit $2,518 (97% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,329/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $745 27 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $745)

80%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,452

Income / mo

$10,890

Buyback gross: $4.82/sh now → $3.41 mid-life (likely $3.71–$6.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 917 simulated challenges: the $745 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $748 (overshoots $3.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$745	28 Jul 2026	3d left	+$0.83/sh	+$992 cycle +$2,444 [+$744…+$969] · 100% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$757	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$2.22/sh	+$2,667 cycle +$4,119 [+$1,066…+$2,633] · 88% credit	77% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$762	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.28/sh	+$342 cycle +$1,794 [-$1,663…+$213] · 32% credit	82% surv 77%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$746	28 Jul 2026	3d left	+$0.08/sh	+$91 cycle +$1,543 [-$472…-$27] · 22% credit	69% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$767	14 Aug 2026	20d left	-$1.17/sh	-$1,403 cycle +$49 [-$3,817…-$1,626] · 2% credit	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $1,452 debit $1,403 (97% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$49 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,027/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $761 3 Aug 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $761)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$588

Income / mo

$1,604

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$763	7 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.36/sh	+$438 cycle +$1,026 [-$91…+$961] · 68% credit	69% surv 55%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$761	4 Aug 2026	6d left	+$0.03/sh	+$38 cycle +$626 [-$129…+$388] · 58% credit	67% surv 50%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$768	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.04/sh	+$44 cycle +$632 [-$999…+$811] · 42% credit	73% surv 63%
reaches SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (235 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (11 expiries scanned, 235 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.798 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $42,462

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$744	4d	27 Jul 2026	$1.49	12/12	$13,410	$13,410	77%	81%	+$5,233	-$0	0.0%	$43,926 (vs do-nothing +$1,464)
$746	6d	29 Jul 2026	$2.22	12/12	$13,320	$13,320	75%	80%	+$4,504	-$0	0.0%	$44,802 (vs do-nothing +$2,340)
$748	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.90	12/12	$13,050	$13,050	75%	80%	+$4,841	-$0	0.0%	$45,618 (vs do-nothing +$3,156)
$747	7d	30 Jul 2026	$2.65	12/12	$13,629	$13,629	75%	80%	+$4,935	-$0	0.0%	$45,318 (vs do-nothing +$2,856)
$744	5d	28 Jul 2026	$2.06	11/12	$13,596	$13,670	74%	79%	+$4,783	-$0	0.0%	$44,431 (vs do-nothing +$1,969)
$743	4d	27 Jul 2026	$1.81	10/12	$13,575	$13,722	74%	79%	+$4,870	-$0	0.0%	$44,002 (vs do-nothing +$1,540)
$747	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.26	11/12	$13,448	$13,521	73%	79%	+$4,719	-$0	0.0%	$45,751 (vs do-nothing +$3,289)
$745	6d	29 Jul 2026	$2.57	10/12	$12,850	$12,997	73%	78%	+$4,379	-$0	0.0%	$44,762 (vs do-nothing +$2,300)
$746	7d	30 Jul 2026	$3.00	10/12	$12,857	$13,004	72%	78%	+$4,384	-$0	0.0%	$45,192 (vs do-nothing +$2,730)
$746	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.65	10/12	$13,688	$13,835	71%	77%	+$4,555	-$0	0.0%	$45,842 (vs do-nothing +$3,380)
$743	5d	28 Jul 2026	$2.42	9/12	$13,068	$13,289	71%	77%	+$4,231	-$0	0.0%	$44,397 (vs do-nothing +$1,935)
$744	6d	29 Jul 2026	$2.94	9/12	$13,230	$13,451	70%	77%	+$4,198	-$0	0.0%	$44,865 (vs do-nothing +$2,403)
$745	7d	30 Jul 2026	$3.38	9/12	$13,037	$13,258	70%	77%	+$4,184	-$0	0.0%	$45,261 (vs do-nothing +$2,799)

Show 222 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 222.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$742	4d	27 Jul 2026	$2.17	8/12	$13,020	$13,315	70%	77%	+$4,275	-$0	0.0%	$43,982 (vs do-nothing +$1,520)
$746	11d	3 Aug 2026	$4.14	12/12	$13,549	$13,549	69%	77%	+$4,347	-$0	0.0%	$47,106 (vs do-nothing +$4,644)
$746	12d	4 Aug 2026	$4.52	12/12	$13,560	$13,560	68%	76%	+$4,242	-$0	0.0%	$47,562 (vs do-nothing +$5,100)
$745	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.06	9/12	$13,702	$13,923	68%	76%	+$4,311	-$0	0.0%	$45,873 (vs do-nothing +$3,411)
$747	15d	7 Aug 2026	$5.38	12/12	$12,912	$12,912	68%	76%	+$4,113	-$0	0.0%	$48,594 (vs do-nothing +$6,132)
$744	7d	30 Jul 2026	$3.80	8/12	$13,029	$13,323	68%	75%	+$3,954	-$0	0.0%	$45,286 (vs do-nothing +$2,824)
$743	6d	29 Jul 2026	$3.35	8/12	$13,400	$13,695	67%	75%	+$3,990	-$0	0.0%	$44,926 (vs do-nothing +$2,464)
$742	5d	28 Jul 2026	$2.82	8/12	$13,536	$13,831	67%	75%	+$4,050	-$0	0.0%	$44,502 (vs do-nothing +$2,040)
$745	11d	3 Aug 2026	$4.57	11/12	$13,710	$13,784	67%	75%	+$4,167	-$0	0.0%	$47,192 (vs do-nothing +$4,730)
$745	12d	4 Aug 2026	$4.96	11/12	$13,640	$13,714	66%	75%	+$4,053	-$0	0.0%	$47,621 (vs do-nothing +$5,159)
$741	4d	27 Jul 2026	$2.57	7/12	$13,492	$13,861	66%	75%	+$4,014	-$0	0.0%	$44,072 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$745	13d	5 Aug 2026	$5.38	11/12	$13,657	$13,731	66%	75%	+$4,538	-$0	0.0%	$48,083 (vs do-nothing +$5,621)
$746	15d	7 Aug 2026	$5.84	11/12	$12,848	$12,922	66%	75%	+$3,921	-$0	0.0%	$48,589 (vs do-nothing +$6,127)
$744	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.50	8/12	$13,500	$13,795	66%	75%	+$4,026	-$0	0.0%	$45,846 (vs do-nothing +$3,384)
$745	14d	6 Aug 2026	$5.78	11/12	$13,624	$13,698	66%	75%	+$4,599	-$0	0.0%	$48,523 (vs do-nothing +$6,061)
$743	7d	30 Jul 2026	$4.24	7/12	$12,720	$13,088	65%	74%	+$3,623	-$0	0.0%	$45,241 (vs do-nothing +$2,779)
$744	11d	3 Aug 2026	$5.03	10/12	$13,718	$13,865	65%	74%	+$3,978	-$0	0.0%	$47,222 (vs do-nothing +$4,760)
$742	6d	29 Jul 2026	$3.79	7/12	$13,265	$13,633	65%	74%	+$3,704	-$0	0.0%	$44,926 (vs do-nothing +$2,464)
$744	12d	4 Aug 2026	$5.43	10/12	$13,575	$13,722	65%	74%	+$3,846	-$0	0.0%	$47,622 (vs do-nothing +$5,160)
$745	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.32	10/12	$12,640	$12,787	65%	74%	+$3,711	-$0	0.0%	$48,512 (vs do-nothing +$6,050)
$741	5d	28 Jul 2026	$3.27	7/12	$13,734	$14,102	64%	73%	+$3,841	-$0	0.0%	$44,562 (vs do-nothing +$2,100)
$743	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.96	7/12	$13,020	$13,388	64%	73%	+$3,672	-$0	0.0%	$45,745 (vs do-nothing +$3,283)
$746	22d	14 Aug 2026	$7.76	12/12	$12,698	$12,698	64%	74%	+$3,779	-$0	0.0%	$51,450 (vs do-nothing +$8,988)
$743	11d	3 Aug 2026	$5.51	9/12	$13,525	$13,745	63%	73%	+$3,742	-$0	0.0%	$47,178 (vs do-nothing +$4,716)
$742	7d	30 Jul 2026	$4.70	7/12	$14,100	$14,468	63%	73%	+$3,795	-$0	0.0%	$45,563 (vs do-nothing +$3,101)
$744	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.82	10/12	$13,640	$13,787	63%	73%	+$3,856	-$0	0.0%	$49,012 (vs do-nothing +$6,550)
$740	4d	27 Jul 2026	$3.01	6/12	$13,545	$13,987	63%	73%	+$3,722	-$0	0.0%	$44,106 (vs do-nothing +$1,644)
$743	12d	4 Aug 2026	$5.91	9/12	$13,298	$13,518	63%	73%	+$3,570	-$0	0.0%	$47,538 (vs do-nothing +$5,076)
$745	22d	14 Aug 2026	$8.28	12/12	$13,549	$13,549	62%	73%	+$3,902	-$0	0.0%	$52,074 (vs do-nothing +$9,612)
$741	6d	29 Jul 2026	$4.26	6/12	$12,780	$13,222	62%	72%	+$3,344	-$0	0.0%	$44,856 (vs do-nothing +$2,394)
$742	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.45	7/12	$14,306	$14,674	62%	72%	+$3,828	-$0	0.0%	$46,088 (vs do-nothing +$3,626)
$742	11d	3 Aug 2026	$6.01	8/12	$13,113	$13,407	61%	72%	+$3,440	-$0	0.0%	$47,054 (vs do-nothing +$4,592)
$743	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.34	9/12	$13,212	$13,433	61%	72%	+$3,586	-$0	0.0%	$48,825 (vs do-nothing +$6,363)
$744	22d	14 Aug 2026	$8.81	11/12	$13,215	$13,289	61%	72%	+$3,672	-$0	0.0%	$51,856 (vs do-nothing +$9,394)
$740	5d	28 Jul 2026	$3.74	6/12	$13,464	$13,906	61%	72%	+$3,474	-$0	0.0%	$44,544 (vs do-nothing +$2,082)
$742	12d	4 Aug 2026	$6.42	8/12	$12,840	$13,135	61%	72%	+$3,275	-$0	0.0%	$47,382 (vs do-nothing +$4,920)
$741	7d	30 Jul 2026	$5.20	6/12	$13,371	$13,813	60%	72%	+$3,386	-$0	0.0%	$45,420 (vs do-nothing +$2,958)
$741	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.97	6/12	$13,432	$13,874	60%	71%	+$3,418	-$0	0.0%	$45,882 (vs do-nothing +$3,420)
$743	22d	14 Aug 2026	$9.35	10/12	$12,750	$12,897	60%	71%	+$3,411	-$0	0.0%	$51,542 (vs do-nothing +$9,080)
$742	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.87	9/12	$14,166	$14,387	59%	71%	+$3,676	-$0	0.0%	$49,302 (vs do-nothing +$6,840)
$740	6d	29 Jul 2026	$4.75	6/12	$14,250	$14,692	59%	71%	+$3,472	-$0	0.0%	$45,150 (vs do-nothing +$2,688)
$741	11d	3 Aug 2026	$6.53	8/12	$14,247	$14,542	59%	71%	+$3,543	-$0	0.0%	$47,470 (vs do-nothing +$5,008)
$739	4d	27 Jul 2026	$3.49	5/12	$13,088	$13,603	59%	71%	+$3,237	-$0	0.0%	$44,072 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$741	12d	4 Aug 2026	$6.95	8/12	$13,900	$14,195	59%	71%	+$3,377	-$0	0.0%	$47,806 (vs do-nothing +$5,344)
$742	22d	14 Aug 2026	$9.91	10/12	$13,514	$13,661	58%	71%	+$3,492	-$0	0.0%	$52,102 (vs do-nothing +$9,640)
$740	7d	30 Jul 2026	$5.71	6/12	$14,683	$15,125	58%	70%	+$3,463	-$0	0.0%	$45,726 (vs do-nothing +$3,264)
$741	15d	7 Aug 2026	$8.43	8/12	$13,488	$13,783	58%	70%	+$3,371	-$0	0.0%	$48,990 (vs do-nothing +$6,528)
$739	5d	28 Jul 2026	$4.26	5/12	$12,780	$13,295	58%	70%	+$3,075	-$0	0.0%	$44,457 (vs do-nothing +$1,995)
$740	8d	31 Jul 2026	$6.50	6/12	$14,625	$15,067	57%	70%	+$3,516	-$0	0.0%	$46,200 (vs do-nothing +$3,738)
$740	11d	3 Aug 2026	$7.08	7/12	$13,516	$13,885	57%	70%	+$3,221	-$0	0.0%	$47,229 (vs do-nothing +$4,767)
$740	13d	5 Aug 2026	$7.96	7/12	$12,858	$13,227	57%	71%	+$4,107	-$0	0.0%	$47,845 (vs do-nothing +$5,383)
$740	14d	6 Aug 2026	$8.40	8/12	$14,400	$14,695	57%	71%	+$4,670	-$0	0.0%	$48,966 (vs do-nothing +$6,504)
$740	12d	4 Aug 2026	$7.50	7/12	$13,125	$13,493	57%	70%	+$3,066	-$0	0.0%	$47,523 (vs do-nothing +$5,061)
$741	22d	14 Aug 2026	$10.49	9/12	$12,874	$13,095	57%	70%	+$3,227	-$0	0.0%	$51,660 (vs do-nothing +$9,198)
$739	6d	29 Jul 2026	$5.28	5/12	$13,200	$13,715	57%	70%	+$3,016	-$0	0.0%	$44,967 (vs do-nothing +$2,505)
$740	15d	7 Aug 2026	$9.00	8/12	$14,400	$14,695	56%	70%	+$3,473	-$0	0.0%	$49,446 (vs do-nothing +$6,984)
$739	7d	30 Jul 2026	$6.25	5/12	$13,393	$13,908	56%	69%	+$3,018	-$0	0.0%	$45,452 (vs do-nothing +$2,990)
$739	8d	31 Jul 2026	$7.05	5/12	$13,219	$13,734	55%	69%	+$3,022	-$0	0.0%	$45,852 (vs do-nothing +$3,390)
$740	22d	14 Aug 2026	$11.08	9/12	$13,598	$13,819	55%	69%	+$3,306	-$0	0.0%	$52,191 (vs do-nothing +$9,729)
$738	4d	27 Jul 2026	$4.01	5/12	$15,038	$15,553	55%	69%	+$3,421	-$0	0.0%	$44,332 (vs do-nothing +$1,870)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 23:50