FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $739.45

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.17 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $739.45 UNDERWATER $24.55 (3.2% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.17 (banked floor $691.67) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$24,249/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$44,364	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$12,124/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$24,249/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
6.1 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
6.1 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $693.17 (probe: $725C 14d) still earns $13,937/mo (57% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$1,336

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$693.17 → $691.67

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 66 (live) · RSI 59 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 13 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $792.13 (+7%) · daily UBB $756.52 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $693.17 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $746 30 Jul 2026 (6d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $746)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$3,540

Income / mo

$17,700

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.35/sh now → $4.49 mid-life (likely $5.20–$7.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,402 simulated challenges: the $746 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $749 (overshoots $2.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$756	21 Aug 2026	25d left	+$2.77/sh	+$3,327 cycle +$6,867 [+$1,349…+$3,062] · 91% credit	74% surv 65%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$746	31 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.74/sh	+$892 cycle +$4,432 [+$50…+$709] · 77% credit	66% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$747	31 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.42/sh	+$504 cycle +$4,044 [-$408…+$305] · 52% credit	67% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$762	21 Aug 2026	25d left	+$0.17/sh	+$204 cycle +$3,744 [-$2,268…-$232] · 21% credit	79% surv 73%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$772	21 Aug 2026	25d left	-$2.70/sh	-$3,238 cycle +$302 [-$6,384…-$3,885]	89% surv 87%
budget: banked $3,540 debit $3,238 (91% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$302 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,584/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $749 29 Jul 2026 (5d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $749)

82%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$1,404

Income / mo

$8,424

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.40/sh now → $3.82 mid-life (likely $4.08–$6.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 967 simulated challenges: the $749 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $752 (overshoots $3.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$749	30 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.85/sh	+$1,022 cycle +$2,426 [+$1,120…+$1,617] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$750	30 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.52/sh	+$627 cycle +$2,031 [+$656…+$1,063] · 100% credit	69% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$756	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.11/sh	+$1,334 cycle +$2,738 [+$116…+$1,455] · 78% credit	73% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$767	21 Aug 2026	26d left	+$0.11/sh	+$126 cycle +$1,530 [-$1,857…+$160] · 28% credit	81% surv 77%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$771	21 Aug 2026	26d left	-$1.10/sh	-$1,322 cycle +$82 [-$3,615…-$1,375] · 6% credit	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $1,404 debit $1,322 (94% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$82 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,764/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $775 21 Aug 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $775)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$936

Income / mo

$1,003

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (218 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (11 expiries scanned, 218 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $44,568

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$747	5d	29 Jul 2026	$1.75	12/12	$12,600	$12,600	75%	80%	+$4,491	-$0	0.0%	$46,464 (vs do-nothing +$1,896)
$748	6d	30 Jul 2026	$2.19	12/12	$13,140	$13,140	75%	80%	+$5,111	-$0	0.0%	$46,992 (vs do-nothing +$2,424)
$749	7d	31 Jul 2026	$2.40	12/12	$12,343	$12,343	75%	80%	+$4,341	-$0	0.0%	$47,244 (vs do-nothing +$2,676)
$747	6d	30 Jul 2026	$2.55	10/12	$12,750	$12,852	73%	79%	+$4,923	-$0	0.0%	$46,948 (vs do-nothing +$2,380)
$748	7d	31 Jul 2026	$2.76	11/12	$13,011	$13,062	72%	78%	+$4,272	-$0	0.0%	$47,417 (vs do-nothing +$2,849)
$746	5d	29 Jul 2026	$2.10	10/12	$12,600	$12,702	72%	78%	+$4,135	-$0	0.0%	$46,498 (vs do-nothing +$1,930)
$745	4d	28 Jul 2026	$1.45	12/12	$13,050	$13,050	71%	75%	+$173	-$0	0.0%	$46,104 (vs do-nothing +$1,536)
$746	6d	30 Jul 2026	$2.95	9/12	$13,275	$13,428	70%	77%	+$5,079	-$0	0.0%	$47,070 (vs do-nothing +$2,502)
$747	7d	31 Jul 2026	$3.16	9/12	$12,189	$12,342	70%	76%	+$3,773	-$0	0.0%	$47,259 (vs do-nothing +$2,691)
$745	5d	29 Jul 2026	$2.48	9/12	$13,392	$13,545	69%	76%	+$4,041	-$0	0.0%	$46,647 (vs do-nothing +$2,079)
$747	10d	3 Aug 2026	$3.63	12/12	$13,068	$13,068	68%	76%	+$3,782	-$0	0.0%	$48,720 (vs do-nothing +$4,152)
$747	11d	4 Aug 2026	$4.11	11/12	$12,330	$12,381	67%	75%	+$3,664	-$0	0.0%	$48,902 (vs do-nothing +$4,334)
$744	4d	28 Jul 2026	$1.81	9/12	$12,218	$12,370	67%	73%	+$654	-$0	0.0%	$46,044 (vs do-nothing +$1,476)

Show 205 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 205.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$745	6d	30 Jul 2026	$3.37	8/12	$13,480	$13,684	67%	76%	+$5,050	-$0	0.0%	$47,128 (vs do-nothing +$2,560)
$746	7d	31 Jul 2026	$3.57	8/12	$12,240	$12,444	67%	75%	+$3,494	-$0	0.0%	$47,288 (vs do-nothing +$2,720)
$748	14d	7 Aug 2026	$4.95	12/12	$12,729	$12,729	67%	75%	+$3,813	-$0	0.0%	$50,304 (vs do-nothing +$5,736)
$746	10d	3 Aug 2026	$4.07	10/12	$12,210	$12,312	66%	74%	+$3,324	-$0	0.0%	$48,468 (vs do-nothing +$3,900)
$744	5d	29 Jul 2026	$2.90	7/12	$12,180	$12,435	65%	74%	+$3,379	-$0	0.0%	$46,479 (vs do-nothing +$1,911)
$746	11d	4 Aug 2026	$4.57	10/12	$12,464	$12,566	65%	74%	+$3,499	-$0	0.0%	$48,968 (vs do-nothing +$4,400)
$747	14d	7 Aug 2026	$5.42	11/12	$12,776	$12,827	65%	74%	+$3,647	-$0	0.0%	$50,343 (vs do-nothing +$5,775)
$745	7d	31 Jul 2026	$4.03	8/12	$13,817	$14,021	64%	73%	+$3,709	-$0	0.0%	$47,656 (vs do-nothing +$3,088)
$744	6d	30 Jul 2026	$3.83	7/12	$13,405	$13,660	64%	75%	+$4,915	-$0	0.0%	$47,130 (vs do-nothing +$2,562)
$743	4d	28 Jul 2026	$2.22	8/12	$13,320	$13,524	64%	71%	+$1,112	-$0	0.0%	$46,208 (vs do-nothing +$1,640)
$745	10d	3 Aug 2026	$4.54	9/12	$12,258	$12,411	63%	73%	+$3,145	-$0	0.0%	$48,501 (vs do-nothing +$3,933)
$746	14d	7 Aug 2026	$5.91	10/12	$12,664	$12,766	63%	73%	+$3,436	-$0	0.0%	$50,308 (vs do-nothing +$5,740)
$745	11d	4 Aug 2026	$5.05	9/12	$12,395	$12,548	63%	73%	+$3,272	-$0	0.0%	$48,960 (vs do-nothing +$4,392)
$747	21d	14 Aug 2026	$7.42	12/12	$12,720	$12,720	62%	73%	+$3,551	-$0	0.0%	$53,268 (vs do-nothing +$8,700)
$745	13d	6 Aug 2026	$5.82	10/12	$13,431	$13,533	62%	73%	+$4,254	-$0	0.0%	$50,218 (vs do-nothing +$5,650)
$743	5d	29 Jul 2026	$3.36	7/12	$14,112	$14,367	62%	72%	+$3,596	-$0	0.0%	$46,801 (vs do-nothing +$2,233)
$745	12d	5 Aug 2026	$5.43	9/12	$12,218	$12,370	62%	72%	+$3,154	-$0	0.0%	$49,302 (vs do-nothing +$4,734)
$744	7d	31 Jul 2026	$4.51	7/12	$13,530	$13,785	62%	72%	+$3,410	-$0	0.0%	$47,606 (vs do-nothing +$3,038)
$743	6d	30 Jul 2026	$4.32	6/12	$12,960	$13,266	61%	73%	+$4,628	-$0	0.0%	$47,058 (vs do-nothing +$2,490)
$744	10d	3 Aug 2026	$5.02	9/12	$13,554	$13,707	61%	72%	+$3,235	-$0	0.0%	$48,933 (vs do-nothing +$4,365)
$745	14d	7 Aug 2026	$6.42	9/12	$12,381	$12,534	61%	72%	+$3,188	-$0	0.0%	$50,193 (vs do-nothing +$5,625)
$746	21d	14 Aug 2026	$7.95	11/12	$12,493	$12,544	61%	72%	+$3,353	-$0	0.0%	$53,126 (vs do-nothing +$8,558)
$744	11d	4 Aug 2026	$5.55	9/12	$13,623	$13,776	60%	71%	+$3,372	-$0	0.0%	$49,410 (vs do-nothing +$4,842)
$742	4d	28 Jul 2026	$2.68	7/12	$14,070	$14,325	60%	69%	+$1,483	-$0	0.0%	$46,325 (vs do-nothing +$1,757)
$746	28d	21 Aug 2026	$9.72	12/12	$12,497	$12,497	60%	71%	+$3,403	-$0	0.0%	$56,028 (vs do-nothing +$11,460)
$743	7d	31 Jul 2026	$5.01	6/12	$12,883	$13,189	59%	71%	+$3,018	-$0	0.0%	$47,472 (vs do-nothing +$2,904)
$745	21d	14 Aug 2026	$8.49	10/12	$12,129	$12,231	59%	71%	+$3,119	-$0	0.0%	$52,888 (vs do-nothing +$8,320)
$744	14d	7 Aug 2026	$6.94	9/12	$13,384	$13,537	59%	71%	+$3,257	-$0	0.0%	$50,661 (vs do-nothing +$6,093)
$742	5d	29 Jul 2026	$3.86	6/12	$13,896	$14,202	59%	70%	+$3,252	-$0	0.0%	$46,782 (vs do-nothing +$2,214)
$743	10d	3 Aug 2026	$5.54	8/12	$13,296	$13,500	59%	70%	+$2,979	-$0	0.0%	$48,864 (vs do-nothing +$4,296)
$742	6d	30 Jul 2026	$4.84	6/12	$14,520	$14,826	58%	72%	+$5,029	-$0	0.0%	$47,370 (vs do-nothing +$2,802)
$745	28d	21 Aug 2026	$10.28	12/12	$13,217	$13,217	58%	71%	+$3,471	-$0	0.0%	$56,700 (vs do-nothing +$12,132)
$743	11d	4 Aug 2026	$6.08	8/12	$13,265	$13,469	58%	70%	+$3,092	-$0	0.0%	$49,296 (vs do-nothing +$4,728)
$744	21d	14 Aug 2026	$9.05	10/12	$12,929	$13,031	58%	70%	+$3,192	-$0	0.0%	$53,448 (vs do-nothing +$8,880)
$743	14d	7 Aug 2026	$7.49	8/12	$12,840	$13,044	57%	70%	+$2,977	-$0	0.0%	$50,424 (vs do-nothing +$5,856)
$744	28d	21 Aug 2026	$10.86	11/12	$12,799	$12,850	57%	70%	+$3,265	-$0	0.0%	$56,327 (vs do-nothing +$11,759)
$742	7d	31 Jul 2026	$5.54	6/12	$14,246	$14,552	57%	69%	+$3,112	-$0	0.0%	$47,790 (vs do-nothing +$3,222)
$742	10d	3 Aug 2026	$6.08	7/12	$12,768	$13,023	56%	69%	+$2,691	-$0	0.0%	$48,705 (vs do-nothing +$4,137)
$741	4d	28 Jul 2026	$3.18	6/12	$14,310	$14,616	56%	68%	+$1,694	-$0	0.0%	$46,374 (vs do-nothing +$1,806)
$743	21d	14 Aug 2026	$9.62	9/12	$12,369	$12,522	56%	70%	+$2,944	-$0	0.0%	$53,073 (vs do-nothing +$8,505)
$742	11d	4 Aug 2026	$6.63	7/12	$12,657	$12,912	56%	69%	+$2,801	-$0	0.0%	$49,090 (vs do-nothing +$4,522)
$743	28d	21 Aug 2026	$11.45	10/12	$12,268	$12,370	55%	70%	+$3,035	-$0	0.0%	$55,848 (vs do-nothing +$11,280)
$741	5d	29 Jul 2026	$4.38	5/12	$13,140	$13,497	55%	69%	+$2,792	-$0	0.0%	$46,673 (vs do-nothing +$2,105)
$742	14d	7 Aug 2026	$8.06	8/12	$13,817	$14,021	55%	69%	+$3,081	-$0	0.0%	$50,880 (vs do-nothing +$6,312)
$741	6d	30 Jul 2026	$5.38	5/12	$13,450	$13,807	55%	71%	+$4,486	-$0	0.0%	$47,173 (vs do-nothing +$2,605)
$742	21d	14 Aug 2026	$10.21	9/12	$13,127	$13,280	55%	69%	+$3,006	-$0	0.0%	$53,604 (vs do-nothing +$9,036)
$741	7d	31 Jul 2026	$6.10	5/12	$13,071	$13,428	54%	68%	+$2,673	-$0	0.0%	$47,533 (vs do-nothing +$2,965)
$742	28d	21 Aug 2026	$12.06	10/12	$12,921	$13,023	54%	69%	+$3,095	-$0	0.0%	$56,458 (vs do-nothing +$11,890)
$741	11d	4 Aug 2026	$7.17	7/12	$13,688	$13,943	54%	70%	+$3,947	-$0	0.0%	$49,468 (vs do-nothing +$4,900)
$741	10d	3 Aug 2026	$6.64	7/12	$13,944	$14,199	54%	68%	+$2,754	-$0	0.0%	$49,097 (vs do-nothing +$4,529)
$741	14d	7 Aug 2026	$8.65	7/12	$12,975	$13,230	53%	68%	+$2,759	-$0	0.0%	$50,504 (vs do-nothing +$5,936)
$741	21d	14 Aug 2026	$10.82	8/12	$12,366	$12,570	53%	68%	+$2,723	-$0	0.0%	$53,088 (vs do-nothing +$8,520)
$741	28d	21 Aug 2026	$12.68	9/12	$12,227	$12,380	53%	68%	+$2,825	-$0	0.0%	$55,827 (vs do-nothing +$11,259)
$740	4d	28 Jul 2026	$3.72	5/12	$13,950	$14,307	52%	66%	+$1,748	-$0	0.0%	$46,343 (vs do-nothing +$1,775)
$740	5d	29 Jul 2026	$4.95	5/12	$14,850	$15,207	52%	67%	+$2,905	-$0	0.0%	$46,958 (vs do-nothing +$2,390)
$740	6d	30 Jul 2026	$5.95	5/12	$14,875	$15,232	52%	70%	+$4,764	-$0	0.0%	$47,458 (vs do-nothing +$2,890)
$740	7d	31 Jul 2026	$6.68	5/12	$14,314	$14,671	52%	67%	+$2,720	-$0	0.0%	$47,823 (vs do-nothing +$3,255)
$740	11d	4 Aug 2026	$7.76	6/12	$12,698	$13,004	52%	69%	+$3,584	-$0	0.0%	$49,122 (vs do-nothing +$4,554)
$740	10d	3 Aug 2026	$7.22	6/12	$12,996	$13,302	52%	67%	+$2,387	-$0	0.0%	$48,798 (vs do-nothing +$4,230)
$740	12d	5 Aug 2026	$8.20	6/12	$12,300	$12,606	52%	67%	+$2,387	-$0	0.0%	$49,386 (vs do-nothing +$4,818)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-24 21:40