FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $733.66

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $698.05 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $733.66 UNDERWATER $30.34 (4.0% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $698.05 (banked floor $696.55) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$20,064/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$33,984	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,032/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$20,064/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $698.05 (probe: $719C 15d) still earns $5,820/mo (29% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$1,336

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,987

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$698.05 → $696.55

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $750C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.66	$1,987	2026-07-27

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 8 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $791.16 (+8%) · daily UBB $758.72 · 1-wk expected move ±$16 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $698.05 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $747 21 Aug 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $747)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$5,196

Income / mo

$7,085

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $744 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $744)

81%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$912

Income / mo

$6,840

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.73/sh now → $2.64 mid-life (likely $2.83–$4.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 881 simulated challenges: the $744 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $748 (overshoots $3.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$744	4 Aug 2026	3d left	+$0.64/sh	+$771 cycle +$1,683 [+$643…+$769] · 100% credit	62% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$754	21 Aug 2026	20d left	+$2.23/sh	+$2,677 cycle +$3,589 [+$1,756…+$2,884] · 98% credit	73% surv 67%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$760	21 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.27/sh	+$322 cycle +$1,234 [-$1,105…+$292] · 38% credit	80% surv 76%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$745	4 Aug 2026	3d left	+$0.09/sh	+$111 cycle +$1,023 [-$278…+$49] · 33% credit	64% surv 55%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$764	21 Aug 2026	20d left	-$0.73/sh	-$871 cycle +$41 [-$2,612…-$941] · 6% credit	84% surv 82%
budget: banked $912 debit $871 (96% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$41 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,438/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $753 5 Aug 2026 (6d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $753)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$300

Income / mo

$1,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.10/sh now → $3.60 mid-life (likely $3.06–$5.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 421 simulated challenges: the $753 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $756 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$762	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$1.28/sh	+$1,536 cycle +$1,836 [+$779…+$2,277] · 88% credit	73% surv 66%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$753	6 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.39/sh	+$464 cycle +$764 [+$164…+$574] · 83% credit	62% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$753	6 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.24/sh	+$283 cycle +$583 [-$85…+$377] · 70% credit	63% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$765	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.16/sh	+$198 cycle +$498 [-$777…+$847] · 52% credit	76% surv 71%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$766	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.16/sh	-$191 cycle +$109 [-$1,217…+$431] · 38% credit	77% surv 72%
budget: banked $300 debit $191 (64% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$109 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,527/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (180 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 180 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.789 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $34,380

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$742	5d	4 Aug 2026	$1.48	12/12	$10,656	$10,656	73%	77%	$-787	-$0	0.0%	$35,760 (vs do-nothing +$1,380)
$741	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.29	11/12	$10,643	$10,709	73%	77%	$-1,079	-$0	0.0%	$35,436 (vs do-nothing +$1,056)
$743	7d	6 Aug 2026	$1.97	12/12	$10,131	$10,131	72%	76%	$-625	-$0	0.0%	$36,348 (vs do-nothing +$1,968)
$742	6d	5 Aug 2026	$1.86	11/12	$10,230	$10,296	71%	75%	$-836	-$0	0.0%	$36,063 (vs do-nothing +$1,683)
$741	5d	4 Aug 2026	$1.72	10/12	$10,320	$10,452	71%	75%	$-954	-$0	0.0%	$35,770 (vs do-nothing +$1,390)
$743	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.45	11/12	$10,106	$10,172	71%	75%	$-17	-$0	0.0%	$36,712 (vs do-nothing +$2,332)
$740	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.52	9/12	$10,260	$10,458	70%	74%	$-1,301	-$0	0.0%	$35,451 (vs do-nothing +$1,071)
$742	7d	6 Aug 2026	$2.25	11/12	$10,607	$10,673	70%	74%	$-478	-$0	0.0%	$36,492 (vs do-nothing +$2,112)
$741	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.14	10/12	$10,700	$10,832	69%	74%	$-703	-$0	0.0%	$36,190 (vs do-nothing +$1,810)
$742	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.76	10/12	$10,350	$10,482	68%	74%	$-133	-$0	0.0%	$36,810 (vs do-nothing +$2,430)
$740	5d	4 Aug 2026	$1.99	9/12	$10,746	$10,944	68%	73%	$-1,148	-$0	0.0%	$35,874 (vs do-nothing +$1,494)
$741	7d	6 Aug 2026	$2.55	10/12	$10,929	$11,061	68%	73%	$-363	-$0	0.0%	$36,600 (vs do-nothing +$2,220)
$739	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.77	8/12	$10,620	$10,884	67%	72%	$-1,638	-$0	0.0%	$35,532 (vs do-nothing +$1,152)

Show 167 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 167.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$740	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.44	9/12	$10,980	$11,178	67%	72%	$-609	-$0	0.0%	$36,279 (vs do-nothing +$1,899)
$743	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.27	12/12	$10,248	$10,248	66%	73%	+$506	-$0	0.0%	$39,108 (vs do-nothing +$4,728)
$741	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.09	9/12	$10,429	$10,627	66%	72%	$-243	-$0	0.0%	$36,864 (vs do-nothing +$2,484)
$740	7d	6 Aug 2026	$2.88	9/12	$11,109	$11,307	65%	72%	$-243	-$0	0.0%	$36,675 (vs do-nothing +$2,295)
$739	5d	4 Aug 2026	$2.29	8/12	$10,992	$11,256	65%	71%	$-1,305	-$0	0.0%	$35,948 (vs do-nothing +$1,568)
$742	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.66	11/12	$10,252	$10,318	64%	72%	+$431	-$0	0.0%	$39,143 (vs do-nothing +$4,763)
$739	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.76	8/12	$11,040	$11,304	64%	71%	$-549	-$0	0.0%	$36,324 (vs do-nothing +$1,944)
$740	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.45	8/12	$10,350	$10,614	64%	71%	$-316	-$0	0.0%	$36,876 (vs do-nothing +$2,496)
$738	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.06	7/12	$10,815	$11,145	64%	70%	$-1,844	-$0	0.0%	$35,591 (vs do-nothing +$1,211)
$739	7d	6 Aug 2026	$3.23	8/12	$11,074	$11,338	63%	70%	$-161	-$0	0.0%	$36,700 (vs do-nothing +$2,320)
$740	11d	10 Aug 2026	$3.90	10/12	$10,636	$10,768	63%	70%	$-252	-$0	0.0%	$37,950 (vs do-nothing +$3,570)
$741	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.06	10/12	$10,120	$10,252	63%	71%	+$338	-$0	0.0%	$39,110 (vs do-nothing +$4,730)
$742	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.29	12/12	$10,293	$10,293	63%	71%	+$840	-$0	0.0%	$41,532 (vs do-nothing +$7,152)
$740	12d	11 Aug 2026	$4.24	10/12	$10,600	$10,732	63%	70%	$-161	-$0	0.0%	$38,290 (vs do-nothing +$3,910)
$738	5d	4 Aug 2026	$2.63	7/12	$11,046	$11,376	62%	69%	$-1,374	-$0	0.0%	$35,990 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$739	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.82	8/12	$11,460	$11,724	62%	69%	$-434	-$0	0.0%	$37,172 (vs do-nothing +$2,792)
$740	13d	12 Aug 2026	$4.85	9/12	$10,082	$10,280	62%	70%	+$99	-$0	0.0%	$38,452 (vs do-nothing +$4,072)
$738	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.11	7/12	$10,885	$11,215	62%	69%	$-481	-$0	0.0%	$36,326 (vs do-nothing +$1,946)
$741	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.74	11/12	$10,110	$10,176	61%	70%	+$759	-$0	0.0%	$41,431 (vs do-nothing +$7,051)
$740	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.48	10/12	$10,960	$11,092	61%	69%	+$282	-$0	0.0%	$39,530 (vs do-nothing +$5,150)
$738	7d	6 Aug 2026	$3.60	7/12	$10,800	$11,130	61%	69%	$-111	-$0	0.0%	$36,669 (vs do-nothing +$2,289)
$737	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.37	6/12	$10,665	$11,061	61%	68%	$-2,012	-$0	0.0%	$35,604 (vs do-nothing +$1,224)
$738	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.21	7/12	$11,051	$11,381	60%	68%	$-509	-$0	0.0%	$37,096 (vs do-nothing +$2,716)
$740	22d	21 Aug 2026	$7.20	11/12	$10,800	$10,866	60%	69%	+$736	-$0	0.0%	$41,937 (vs do-nothing +$7,557)
$737	5d	4 Aug 2026	$2.96	6/12	$10,656	$11,052	60%	67%	$-1,541	-$0	0.0%	$35,958 (vs do-nothing +$1,578)
$737	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.49	6/12	$10,470	$10,866	59%	68%	$-411	-$0	0.0%	$36,276 (vs do-nothing +$1,896)
$737	7d	6 Aug 2026	$3.99	6/12	$10,260	$10,656	59%	68%	$-89	-$0	0.0%	$36,576 (vs do-nothing +$2,196)
$739	22d	21 Aug 2026	$7.67	10/12	$10,459	$10,591	58%	68%	+$636	-$0	0.0%	$41,720 (vs do-nothing +$7,340)
$736	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.72	5/12	$10,200	$10,662	58%	66%	$-2,026	-$0	0.0%	$35,575 (vs do-nothing +$1,195)
$737	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.62	6/12	$10,395	$10,791	58%	67%	$-561	-$0	0.0%	$36,954 (vs do-nothing +$2,574)
$738	22d	21 Aug 2026	$8.17	10/12	$11,141	$11,273	57%	68%	+$620	-$0	0.0%	$42,220 (vs do-nothing +$7,840)
$736	5d	4 Aug 2026	$3.33	6/12	$11,988	$12,384	57%	66%	$-1,883	-$0	0.0%	$36,180 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$736	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.88	6/12	$11,640	$12,036	57%	66%	$-468	-$0	0.0%	$36,510 (vs do-nothing +$2,130)
$736	7d	6 Aug 2026	$4.41	6/12	$11,340	$11,736	56%	66%	$-77	-$0	0.0%	$36,828 (vs do-nothing +$2,448)
$736	8d	7 Aug 2026	$5.06	6/12	$11,385	$11,781	55%	66%	$-675	-$0	0.0%	$37,218 (vs do-nothing +$2,838)
$737	22d	21 Aug 2026	$8.68	9/12	$10,653	$10,851	55%	67%	+$535	-$0	0.0%	$41,895 (vs do-nothing +$7,515)
$735	4d	3 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/12	$11,625	$12,087	54%	64%	$-2,399	-$0	0.0%	$35,765 (vs do-nothing +$1,385)
$735	5d	4 Aug 2026	$3.73	5/12	$11,190	$11,652	54%	64%	$-1,861	-$0	0.0%	$36,080 (vs do-nothing +$1,700)
$736	22d	21 Aug 2026	$9.20	8/12	$10,036	$10,300	54%	66%	+$447	-$0	0.0%	$41,476 (vs do-nothing +$7,096)
$735	6d	5 Aug 2026	$4.31	5/12	$10,775	$11,237	54%	65%	$-415	-$0	0.0%	$36,370 (vs do-nothing +$1,990)
$735	7d	6 Aug 2026	$4.85	5/12	$10,393	$10,855	54%	65%	$-72	-$0	0.0%	$36,640 (vs do-nothing +$2,260)
$735	8d	7 Aug 2026	$5.51	5/12	$10,331	$10,793	53%	64%	$-690	-$0	0.0%	$36,970 (vs do-nothing +$2,590)
$735	11d	10 Aug 2026	$6.06	7/12	$11,569	$11,899	53%	64%	$-691	-$0	0.0%	$38,391 (vs do-nothing +$4,011)
$735	12d	11 Aug 2026	$6.46	7/12	$11,305	$11,635	53%	65%	$-517	-$0	0.0%	$38,671 (vs do-nothing +$4,291)
$735	13d	12 Aug 2026	$7.09	7/12	$11,448	$11,778	53%	66%	+$332	-$0	0.0%	$39,110 (vs do-nothing +$4,730)
$735	22d	21 Aug 2026	$9.73	8/12	$10,615	$10,879	53%	65%	+$412	-$0	0.0%	$41,900 (vs do-nothing +$7,520)
$734	4d	3 Aug 2026	$3.49	4/12	$10,470	$10,998	51%	62%	$-2,296	-$0	0.0%	$35,644 (vs do-nothing +$1,264)
$734	5d	4 Aug 2026	$4.16	5/12	$12,480	$12,942	51%	62%	$-2,154	-$0	0.0%	$36,295 (vs do-nothing +$1,915)
$734	6d	5 Aug 2026	$4.75	5/12	$11,875	$12,337	51%	64%	$-491	-$0	0.0%	$36,590 (vs do-nothing +$2,210)
$734	22d	21 Aug 2026	$10.29	8/12	$11,225	$11,489	51%	65%	+$393	-$0	0.0%	$42,348 (vs do-nothing +$7,968)
$734	7d	6 Aug 2026	$5.31	5/12	$11,379	$11,841	51%	63%	$-1,283	-$0	0.0%	$36,870 (vs do-nothing +$2,490)
$734	15d	14 Aug 2026	$8.36	6/12	$10,032	$10,428	51%	64%	$-104	-$0	0.0%	$39,198 (vs do-nothing +$4,818)
$734	8d	7 Aug 2026	$5.99	5/12	$11,231	$11,693	51%	63%	$-809	-$0	0.0%	$37,210 (vs do-nothing +$2,830)
$733	22d	21 Aug 2026	$10.85	7/12	$10,357	$10,687	50%	64%	+$314	-$0	0.0%	$41,744 (vs do-nothing +$7,364)
$733	15d	14 Aug 2026	$8.90	6/12	$10,680	$11,076	50%	63%	$-152	-$0	0.0%	$39,522 (vs do-nothing +$5,142)
$733	8d	7 Aug 2026	$6.49	5/12	$12,169	$12,631	49%	62%	$-938	-$0	0.0%	$37,460 (vs do-nothing +$3,080)
$733	6d	5 Aug 2026	$5.22	4/12	$10,440	$10,968	49%	61%	$-1,479	-$0	0.0%	$36,336 (vs do-nothing +$1,956)
$733	7d	6 Aug 2026	$5.79	5/12	$12,407	$12,869	49%	63%	$-143	-$0	0.0%	$37,110 (vs do-nothing +$2,730)
$733	5d	4 Aug 2026	$4.62	4/12	$11,088	$11,616	49%	61%	$-1,954	-$0	0.0%	$36,096 (vs do-nothing +$1,716)
$732	22d	21 Aug 2026	$11.43	7/12	$10,910	$11,240	49%	63%	+$288	-$0	0.0%	$42,150 (vs do-nothing +$7,770)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 19:14