FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $735.51

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $696.71 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $735.51 UNDERWATER $28.49 (3.7% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $696.71 (banked floor $695.22) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$23,966/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$36,978	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$11,983/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$23,966/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
6.2 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
6.2 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $696.71 (probe: $725C 14d) still earns $11,803/mo (49% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$1,336

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,987

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$696.71 → $695.22

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $750C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.66	$1,987	2026-07-27

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 61 (live) · RSI 58 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 17 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $791.68 (+8%) · daily UBB $758.73 · 1-wk expected move ±$15 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $696.71 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $743 6 Aug 2026 (7d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $743)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$3,636

Income / mo

$15,583

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.93/sh now → $4.90 mid-life (likely $5.88–$8.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,452 simulated challenges: the $743 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $746 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$743	7 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.67/sh	+$810 cycle +$4,446 [+$568…+$776] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$743	7 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.39/sh	+$468 cycle +$4,104 [+$131…+$386] · 88% credit	69% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$750	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.79/sh	+$2,152 cycle +$5,788 [+$513…+$1,846] · 87% credit	74% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$753	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.40/sh	+$475 cycle +$4,111 [-$1,548…+$42] · 26% credit	76% surv 68%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$763	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$2.88/sh	-$3,460 cycle +$176 [-$6,647…-$4,304]	84% surv 82%
budget: banked $3,636 debit $3,460 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$176 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,037/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $745 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $745)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,116

Income / mo

$8,370

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.90/sh now → $3.47 mid-life (likely $3.73–$6.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 785 simulated challenges: the $745 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $748 (overshoots $3.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$745	4 Aug 2026	3d left	+$0.72/sh	+$866 cycle +$1,982 [+$708…+$867] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$749	12 Aug 2026	11d left	+$2.13/sh	+$2,559 cycle +$3,675 [+$1,444…+$2,688] · 94% credit	72% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$745	4 Aug 2026	3d left	+$0.44/sh	+$526 cycle +$1,642 [+$265…+$507] · 94% credit	68% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$760	21 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.18/sh	+$214 cycle +$1,330 [-$1,997…+$135] · 29% credit	79% surv 74%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$763	21 Aug 2026	20d left	-$0.75/sh	-$895 cycle +$221 [-$3,356…-$1,028] · 8% credit	81% surv 78%
budget: banked $1,116 debit $895 (80% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$221 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,898/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $763 14 Aug 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $763)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$576

Income / mo

$1,152

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$763	21 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.81/sh	+$2,167 cycle +$2,743 [+$1,756…+$3,526] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$765	21 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.25/sh	+$299 cycle +$875 [-$208…+$1,660] · 68% credit	71% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$765	21 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.25/sh	+$299 cycle +$875 [-$208…+$1,660] · 68% credit	71% surv 56%
reaches SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (183 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (11 expiries scanned, 183 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.798 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $37,470

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$744	5d	4 Aug 2026	$1.67	12/12	$12,024	$12,024	76%	80%	+$3,029	-$0	0.0%	$38,982 (vs do-nothing +$1,512)
$743	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.45	12/12	$13,050	$13,050	75%	79%	+$2,812	-$0	0.0%	$38,718 (vs do-nothing +$1,248)
$742	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.77	10/12	$13,275	$13,439	74%	80%	+$5,065	-$0	0.0%	$38,830 (vs do-nothing +$1,360)
$744	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.16	12/12	$12,960	$12,960	74%	79%	+$3,678	-$0	0.0%	$39,570 (vs do-nothing +$2,100)
$745	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.84	12/12	$12,780	$12,780	74%	79%	+$4,878	-$0	0.0%	$40,386 (vs do-nothing +$2,916)
$743	5d	4 Aug 2026	$1.99	11/12	$13,134	$13,216	73%	78%	+$3,425	-$0	0.0%	$39,208 (vs do-nothing +$1,738)
$744	7d	6 Aug 2026	$2.64	11/12	$12,446	$12,528	72%	78%	+$3,802	-$0	0.0%	$39,923 (vs do-nothing +$2,453)
$743	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.52	10/12	$12,600	$12,764	71%	77%	+$3,657	-$0	0.0%	$39,580 (vs do-nothing +$2,110)
$744	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.22	10/12	$12,075	$12,239	71%	78%	+$4,323	-$0	0.0%	$40,280 (vs do-nothing +$2,810)
$742	5d	4 Aug 2026	$2.36	9/12	$12,744	$12,990	70%	77%	+$3,446	-$0	0.0%	$39,225 (vs do-nothing +$1,755)
$743	7d	6 Aug 2026	$3.03	10/12	$12,986	$13,150	70%	77%	+$4,023	-$0	0.0%	$40,090 (vs do-nothing +$2,620)
$741	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.13	8/12	$12,780	$13,108	69%	76%	+$3,035	-$0	0.0%	$38,846 (vs do-nothing +$1,376)
$742	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.92	9/12	$13,140	$13,386	69%	77%	+$4,452	-$0	0.0%	$39,729 (vs do-nothing +$2,259)

Show 170 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 170.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$743	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.64	9/12	$12,285	$12,531	69%	76%	+$4,145	-$0	0.0%	$40,377 (vs do-nothing +$2,907)
$742	7d	6 Aug 2026	$3.45	9/12	$13,307	$13,553	68%	76%	+$4,400	-$0	0.0%	$40,206 (vs do-nothing +$2,736)
$741	5d	4 Aug 2026	$2.76	8/12	$13,248	$13,576	67%	75%	+$3,630	-$0	0.0%	$39,350 (vs do-nothing +$1,880)
$742	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.08	8/12	$12,240	$12,568	66%	75%	+$3,881	-$0	0.0%	$40,406 (vs do-nothing +$2,936)
$741	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.35	8/12	$13,400	$13,728	66%	75%	+$3,973	-$0	0.0%	$39,822 (vs do-nothing +$2,352)
$740	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.56	7/12	$13,440	$13,850	66%	74%	+$3,362	-$0	0.0%	$38,975 (vs do-nothing +$1,505)
$744	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.41	12/12	$12,984	$12,984	66%	75%	+$3,864	-$0	0.0%	$43,470 (vs do-nothing +$6,000)
$741	7d	6 Aug 2026	$3.90	8/12	$13,371	$13,699	65%	74%	+$4,146	-$0	0.0%	$40,262 (vs do-nothing +$2,792)
$740	5d	4 Aug 2026	$3.19	7/12	$13,398	$13,808	65%	74%	+$3,660	-$0	0.0%	$39,416 (vs do-nothing +$1,946)
$743	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.88	11/12	$12,936	$13,018	64%	74%	+$3,859	-$0	0.0%	$43,487 (vs do-nothing +$6,017)
$741	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.55	8/12	$13,650	$13,978	64%	74%	+$4,086	-$0	0.0%	$40,782 (vs do-nothing +$3,312)
$740	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.81	7/12	$13,335	$13,745	63%	73%	+$3,934	-$0	0.0%	$39,850 (vs do-nothing +$2,380)
$739	4d	3 Aug 2026	$3.01	6/12	$13,545	$14,037	63%	73%	+$4,072	-$0	0.0%	$39,030 (vs do-nothing +$1,560)
$742	15d	14 Aug 2026	$6.38	10/12	$12,760	$12,924	62%	73%	+$3,816	-$0	0.0%	$43,440 (vs do-nothing +$5,970)
$740	7d	6 Aug 2026	$4.38	7/12	$13,140	$13,550	62%	73%	+$3,820	-$0	0.0%	$40,249 (vs do-nothing +$2,779)
$743	22d	21 Aug 2026	$7.79	12/12	$12,747	$12,747	62%	73%	+$3,656	-$0	0.0%	$46,326 (vs do-nothing +$8,856)
$739	5d	4 Aug 2026	$3.66	6/12	$13,176	$13,668	61%	72%	+$3,572	-$0	0.0%	$39,420 (vs do-nothing +$1,950)
$740	8d	7 Aug 2026	$5.05	7/12	$13,256	$13,666	61%	72%	+$3,761	-$0	0.0%	$40,718 (vs do-nothing +$3,248)
$741	15d	14 Aug 2026	$6.90	9/12	$12,420	$12,666	61%	72%	+$3,711	-$0	0.0%	$43,311 (vs do-nothing +$5,841)
$739	6d	5 Aug 2026	$4.30	6/12	$12,900	$13,392	61%	72%	+$3,758	-$0	0.0%	$39,804 (vs do-nothing +$2,334)
$742	22d	21 Aug 2026	$8.32	11/12	$12,480	$12,562	61%	72%	+$3,531	-$0	0.0%	$46,171 (vs do-nothing +$8,701)
$740	11d	10 Aug 2026	$5.55	8/12	$12,109	$12,437	60%	72%	+$3,313	-$0	0.0%	$41,582 (vs do-nothing +$4,112)
$740	12d	11 Aug 2026	$5.97	9/12	$13,432	$13,678	60%	72%	+$3,637	-$0	0.0%	$42,474 (vs do-nothing +$5,004)
$739	7d	6 Aug 2026	$4.88	6/12	$12,549	$13,041	60%	71%	+$3,405	-$0	0.0%	$40,152 (vs do-nothing +$2,682)
$738	4d	3 Aug 2026	$3.48	5/12	$13,050	$13,624	59%	71%	+$3,549	-$0	0.0%	$39,005 (vs do-nothing +$1,535)
$740	13d	12 Aug 2026	$6.46	9/12	$13,417	$13,663	59%	71%	+$3,518	-$0	0.0%	$42,915 (vs do-nothing +$5,445)
$741	22d	21 Aug 2026	$8.86	10/12	$12,082	$12,246	59%	72%	+$3,473	-$0	0.0%	$45,920 (vs do-nothing +$8,450)
$740	14d	13 Aug 2026	$6.89	9/12	$13,288	$13,534	59%	71%	+$3,416	-$0	0.0%	$43,302 (vs do-nothing +$5,832)
$740	15d	14 Aug 2026	$7.44	9/12	$13,392	$13,638	59%	72%	+$3,986	-$0	0.0%	$43,797 (vs do-nothing +$6,327)
$739	8d	7 Aug 2026	$5.56	6/12	$12,510	$13,002	59%	71%	+$3,339	-$0	0.0%	$40,560 (vs do-nothing +$3,090)
$738	5d	4 Aug 2026	$4.16	5/12	$12,480	$13,054	58%	71%	+$3,321	-$0	0.0%	$39,345 (vs do-nothing +$1,875)
$738	6d	5 Aug 2026	$4.82	5/12	$12,050	$12,624	57%	70%	+$3,081	-$0	0.0%	$39,675 (vs do-nothing +$2,205)
$740	22d	21 Aug 2026	$9.43	10/12	$12,859	$13,023	57%	71%	+$3,389	-$0	0.0%	$46,490 (vs do-nothing +$9,020)
$739	15d	14 Aug 2026	$7.99	8/12	$12,784	$13,112	57%	71%	+$3,770	-$0	0.0%	$43,534 (vs do-nothing +$6,064)
$738	7d	6 Aug 2026	$5.42	6/12	$13,937	$14,429	57%	70%	+$3,553	-$0	0.0%	$40,476 (vs do-nothing +$3,006)
$738	8d	7 Aug 2026	$6.11	6/12	$13,748	$14,240	56%	70%	+$3,480	-$0	0.0%	$40,890 (vs do-nothing +$3,420)
$739	22d	21 Aug 2026	$10.01	9/12	$12,285	$12,531	56%	70%	+$3,131	-$0	0.0%	$46,110 (vs do-nothing +$8,640)
$737	4d	3 Aug 2026	$4.00	4/12	$12,000	$12,656	56%	69%	+$2,967	-$0	0.0%	$38,906 (vs do-nothing +$1,436)
$738	15d	14 Aug 2026	$8.56	7/12	$11,984	$12,394	55%	70%	+$3,495	-$0	0.0%	$43,175 (vs do-nothing +$5,705)
$737	5d	4 Aug 2026	$4.69	5/12	$14,070	$14,644	55%	69%	+$3,646	-$0	0.0%	$39,610 (vs do-nothing +$2,140)
$737	6d	5 Aug 2026	$5.35	5/12	$13,375	$13,949	55%	70%	+$3,700	-$0	0.0%	$39,940 (vs do-nothing +$2,470)
$738	22d	21 Aug 2026	$10.60	9/12	$13,009	$13,255	55%	70%	+$3,707	-$0	0.0%	$46,641 (vs do-nothing +$9,171)
$737	7d	6 Aug 2026	$5.97	5/12	$12,793	$13,367	54%	69%	+$3,037	-$0	0.0%	$40,250 (vs do-nothing +$2,780)
$737	8d	7 Aug 2026	$6.67	5/12	$12,506	$13,080	54%	69%	+$2,981	-$0	0.0%	$40,600 (vs do-nothing +$3,130)
$737	15d	14 Aug 2026	$9.16	7/12	$12,824	$13,234	53%	70%	+$3,703	-$0	0.0%	$43,595 (vs do-nothing +$6,125)
$737	22d	21 Aug 2026	$11.21	8/12	$12,229	$12,557	53%	69%	+$3,461	-$0	0.0%	$46,110 (vs do-nothing +$8,640)
$736	4d	3 Aug 2026	$4.55	4/12	$13,650	$14,306	52%	68%	+$3,048	-$0	0.0%	$39,126 (vs do-nothing +$1,656)
$736	5d	4 Aug 2026	$5.25	4/12	$12,600	$13,256	52%	68%	+$3,158	-$0	0.0%	$39,406 (vs do-nothing +$1,936)
$736	6d	5 Aug 2026	$5.93	5/12	$14,825	$15,399	52%	68%	+$3,265	-$0	0.0%	$40,230 (vs do-nothing +$2,760)
$736	7d	6 Aug 2026	$6.56	5/12	$14,057	$14,631	52%	68%	+$3,133	-$0	0.0%	$40,545 (vs do-nothing +$3,075)
$736	8d	7 Aug 2026	$7.26	5/12	$13,612	$14,186	52%	68%	+$3,066	-$0	0.0%	$40,895 (vs do-nothing +$3,425)
$736	15d	14 Aug 2026	$9.76	7/12	$13,664	$14,074	51%	69%	+$3,880	-$0	0.0%	$44,015 (vs do-nothing +$6,545)
$736	22d	21 Aug 2026	$11.83	8/12	$12,905	$13,233	51%	68%	+$2,928	-$0	0.0%	$46,606 (vs do-nothing +$9,136)
$735	22d	21 Aug 2026	$12.46	8/12	$13,593	$13,921	50%	67%	+$2,983	-$0	0.0%	$47,110 (vs do-nothing +$9,640)
$735	15d	14 Aug 2026	$10.37	6/12	$12,444	$12,936	50%	67%	+$2,589	-$0	0.0%	$43,446 (vs do-nothing +$5,976)
$735	14d	13 Aug 2026	$9.83	6/12	$12,639	$13,131	50%	67%	+$2,577	-$0	0.0%	$43,122 (vs do-nothing +$5,652)
$735	13d	12 Aug 2026	$9.36	6/12	$12,960	$13,452	50%	67%	+$2,636	-$0	0.0%	$42,840 (vs do-nothing +$5,370)
$735	12d	11 Aug 2026	$8.86	6/12	$13,290	$13,782	50%	67%	+$2,738	-$0	0.0%	$42,540 (vs do-nothing +$5,070)
$735	11d	10 Aug 2026	$8.41	6/12	$13,762	$14,254	49%	67%	+$2,821	-$0	0.0%	$42,270 (vs do-nothing +$4,800)
$735	8d	7 Aug 2026	$7.86	5/12	$14,738	$15,312	49%	67%	+$3,108	-$0	0.0%	$41,195 (vs do-nothing +$3,725)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39