FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $746.05

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $696.30 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $746.05 UNDERWATER $17.95 (2.3% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $696.30 (banked floor $694.80) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$18,154/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$47,634	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,077/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$18,154/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
8.2 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
8.2 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $696.30 (probe: $732C 14d) still earns $3,831/mo (21% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$1,336

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,987

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$696.30 → $694.80

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $750C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.66	$1,987	2026-07-27

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 68 (live) · RSI 61 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 53 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $792.77 (+6%) · daily UBB $757.68 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $696.30 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $758 28 Aug 2026 (28d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $758)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$6,468

Income / mo

$6,930

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $756 7 Aug 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $756)

81%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$1,044

Income / mo

$4,474

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.63/sh now → $3.27 mid-life (likely $3.38–$5.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,029 simulated challenges: the $756 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $759 (overshoots $2.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$756	10 Aug 2026	6d left	+$0.64/sh	+$774 cycle +$1,818 [+$516…+$1,124] · 100% credit	64% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$769	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.89/sh	+$1,070 cycle +$2,114 [-$25…+$1,210] · 74% credit	78% surv 72%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$757	10 Aug 2026	6d left	+$0.16/sh	+$193 cycle +$1,237 [-$127…+$483] · 57% credit	66% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$771	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$235 cycle +$1,279 [-$912…+$364] · 35% credit	81% surv 77%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$774	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.63/sh	-$761 cycle +$283 [-$2,161…-$680] · 12% credit	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $1,044 debit $761 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$283 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,959/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $776 28 Aug 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $776)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,332

Income / mo

$1,427

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (194 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (11 expiries scanned, 194 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.811 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $47,850

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$752	7d	7 Aug 2026	$1.93	11/12	$9,099	$9,153	69%	74%	+$576	-$0	0.0%	$49,775 (vs do-nothing +$1,925)
$750	4d	4 Aug 2026	$1.06	12/12	$9,540	$9,540	69%	73%	$-1,473	-$0	0.0%	$48,906 (vs do-nothing +$1,056)
$751	6d	6 Aug 2026	$1.63	12/12	$9,780	$9,780	68%	73%	$-224	-$0	0.0%	$49,590 (vs do-nothing +$1,740)
$750	5d	5 Aug 2026	$1.53	10/12	$9,180	$9,288	67%	73%	$-0	-$0	0.0%	$49,200 (vs do-nothing +$1,350)
$751	7d	7 Aug 2026	$2.28	10/12	$9,771	$9,879	66%	72%	+$436	-$0	0.0%	$49,950 (vs do-nothing +$2,100)
$753	14d	14 Aug 2026	$3.71	12/12	$9,540	$9,540	66%	73%	+$1,371	-$0	0.0%	$52,086 (vs do-nothing +$4,236)
$751	10d	10 Aug 2026	$2.72	12/12	$9,792	$9,792	65%	72%	+$955	-$0	0.0%	$50,898 (vs do-nothing +$3,048)
$750	6d	6 Aug 2026	$1.98	10/12	$9,900	$10,008	64%	71%	$-367	-$0	0.0%	$49,650 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$749	4d	4 Aug 2026	$1.36	9/12	$9,180	$9,342	64%	70%	$-1,587	-$0	0.0%	$48,912 (vs do-nothing +$1,062)
$753	21d	21 Aug 2026	$5.52	12/12	$9,463	$9,463	64%	74%	+$2,716	-$0	0.0%	$54,258 (vs do-nothing +$6,408)
$751	11d	11 Aug 2026	$3.09	11/12	$9,270	$9,324	64%	72%	+$971	-$0	0.0%	$51,051 (vs do-nothing +$3,201)
$752	14d	14 Aug 2026	$4.12	11/12	$9,711	$9,765	63%	72%	+$1,263	-$0	0.0%	$52,184 (vs do-nothing +$4,334)
$750	7d	7 Aug 2026	$2.66	8/12	$9,120	$9,336	63%	70%	+$241	-$0	0.0%	$49,834 (vs do-nothing +$1,984)

Show 181 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 181.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$754	28d	28 Aug 2026	$7.09	12/12	$9,116	$9,116	63%	72%	+$2,044	-$0	0.0%	$56,142 (vs do-nothing +$8,292)
$749	5d	5 Aug 2026	$1.88	9/12	$10,152	$10,314	62%	70%	$-338	-$0	0.0%	$49,380 (vs do-nothing +$1,530)
$753	28d	28 Aug 2026	$7.56	12/12	$9,720	$9,720	62%	74%	+$3,390	-$0	0.0%	$56,706 (vs do-nothing +$8,856)
$752	21d	21 Aug 2026	$5.98	11/12	$9,397	$9,451	62%	73%	+$2,664	-$0	0.0%	$54,230 (vs do-nothing +$6,380)
$750	10d	10 Aug 2026	$3.12	10/12	$9,360	$9,468	62%	70%	+$336	-$0	0.0%	$50,790 (vs do-nothing +$2,940)
$751	14d	14 Aug 2026	$4.56	10/12	$9,771	$9,879	61%	70%	+$1,156	-$0	0.0%	$52,230 (vs do-nothing +$4,380)
$750	11d	11 Aug 2026	$3.51	10/12	$9,573	$9,681	61%	70%	+$773	-$0	0.0%	$51,180 (vs do-nothing +$3,330)
$749	6d	6 Aug 2026	$2.36	8/12	$9,440	$9,656	61%	69%	$-505	-$0	0.0%	$49,594 (vs do-nothing +$1,744)
$752	28d	28 Aug 2026	$8.06	11/12	$9,499	$9,553	61%	73%	+$3,263	-$0	0.0%	$56,518 (vs do-nothing +$8,668)
$750	12d	12 Aug 2026	$4.04	9/12	$9,090	$9,252	60%	70%	+$979	-$0	0.0%	$51,324 (vs do-nothing +$3,474)
$750	13d	13 Aug 2026	$4.44	9/12	$9,222	$9,384	60%	69%	+$986	-$0	0.0%	$51,684 (vs do-nothing +$3,834)
$749	7d	7 Aug 2026	$3.08	7/12	$9,240	$9,510	59%	68%	+$116	-$0	0.0%	$49,880 (vs do-nothing +$2,030)
$748	4d	4 Aug 2026	$1.72	8/12	$10,320	$10,536	59%	67%	$-1,853	-$0	0.0%	$49,082 (vs do-nothing +$1,232)
$751	21d	21 Aug 2026	$6.46	10/12	$9,229	$9,337	59%	70%	+$1,373	-$0	0.0%	$54,130 (vs do-nothing +$6,280)
$751	28d	28 Aug 2026	$8.57	10/12	$9,182	$9,290	59%	72%	+$3,099	-$0	0.0%	$56,240 (vs do-nothing +$8,390)
$750	14d	14 Aug 2026	$5.02	9/12	$9,681	$9,843	59%	69%	+$1,030	-$0	0.0%	$52,206 (vs do-nothing +$4,356)
$749	10d	10 Aug 2026	$3.55	9/12	$9,585	$9,747	59%	69%	+$610	-$0	0.0%	$50,883 (vs do-nothing +$3,033)
$748	5d	5 Aug 2026	$2.28	7/12	$9,576	$9,846	58%	67%	$-431	-$0	0.0%	$49,320 (vs do-nothing +$1,470)
$749	11d	11 Aug 2026	$3.96	9/12	$9,720	$9,882	58%	68%	+$639	-$0	0.0%	$51,252 (vs do-nothing +$3,402)
$750	21d	21 Aug 2026	$6.97	10/12	$9,957	$10,065	57%	69%	+$1,403	-$0	0.0%	$54,640 (vs do-nothing +$6,790)
$750	28d	28 Aug 2026	$9.09	10/12	$9,739	$9,847	57%	72%	+$3,221	-$0	0.0%	$56,760 (vs do-nothing +$8,910)
$748	6d	6 Aug 2026	$2.79	7/12	$9,765	$10,035	57%	66%	$-609	-$0	0.0%	$49,677 (vs do-nothing +$1,827)
$749	14d	14 Aug 2026	$5.51	8/12	$9,446	$9,662	57%	68%	+$908	-$0	0.0%	$52,114 (vs do-nothing +$4,264)
$749	21d	21 Aug 2026	$7.48	9/12	$9,617	$9,779	56%	70%	+$2,591	-$0	0.0%	$54,420 (vs do-nothing +$6,570)
$748	7d	7 Aug 2026	$3.54	6/12	$9,103	$9,427	56%	67%	+$14	-$0	0.0%	$49,866 (vs do-nothing +$2,016)
$748	10d	10 Aug 2026	$4.02	8/12	$9,648	$9,864	56%	67%	+$451	-$0	0.0%	$50,922 (vs do-nothing +$3,072)
$749	28d	28 Aug 2026	$9.63	9/12	$9,286	$9,448	56%	71%	+$3,009	-$0	0.0%	$56,355 (vs do-nothing +$8,505)
$748	11d	11 Aug 2026	$4.44	8/12	$9,687	$9,903	56%	67%	+$608	-$0	0.0%	$51,258 (vs do-nothing +$3,408)
$748	14d	14 Aug 2026	$6.01	8/12	$10,303	$10,519	55%	67%	+$872	-$0	0.0%	$52,514 (vs do-nothing +$4,664)
$747	4d	4 Aug 2026	$2.12	6/12	$9,540	$9,864	55%	64%	$-1,801	-$0	0.0%	$49,014 (vs do-nothing +$1,164)
$747	5d	5 Aug 2026	$2.73	6/12	$9,828	$10,152	54%	65%	$-594	-$0	0.0%	$49,380 (vs do-nothing +$1,530)
$748	21d	21 Aug 2026	$8.03	8/12	$9,177	$9,393	54%	67%	+$1,141	-$0	0.0%	$54,130 (vs do-nothing +$6,280)
$747	6d	6 Aug 2026	$3.25	6/12	$9,750	$10,074	54%	64%	$-709	-$0	0.0%	$49,692 (vs do-nothing +$1,842)
$748	28d	28 Aug 2026	$10.18	9/12	$9,816	$9,978	54%	68%	+$1,669	-$0	0.0%	$56,850 (vs do-nothing +$9,000)
$747	7d	7 Aug 2026	$4.02	6/12	$10,337	$10,661	53%	65%	$-126	-$0	0.0%	$50,154 (vs do-nothing +$2,304)
$747	10d	10 Aug 2026	$4.52	7/12	$9,492	$9,762	53%	65%	+$367	-$0	0.0%	$50,888 (vs do-nothing +$3,038)
$747	11d	11 Aug 2026	$4.95	7/12	$9,450	$9,720	53%	66%	+$892	-$0	0.0%	$51,189 (vs do-nothing +$3,339)
$747	14d	14 Aug 2026	$6.55	7/12	$9,825	$10,095	52%	66%	+$750	-$0	0.0%	$52,309 (vs do-nothing +$4,459)
$747	21d	21 Aug 2026	$8.58	8/12	$9,806	$10,022	52%	66%	+$1,138	-$0	0.0%	$54,570 (vs do-nothing +$6,720)
$747	28d	28 Aug 2026	$10.76	8/12	$9,223	$9,439	52%	67%	+$1,503	-$0	0.0%	$56,314 (vs do-nothing +$8,464)
$746	28d	28 Aug 2026	$11.35	8/12	$9,729	$9,945	51%	66%	+$1,412	-$0	0.0%	$56,786 (vs do-nothing +$8,936)
$746	21d	21 Aug 2026	$9.16	7/12	$9,160	$9,430	51%	65%	+$998	-$0	0.0%	$54,136 (vs do-nothing +$6,286)
$746	14d	14 Aug 2026	$7.11	6/12	$9,141	$9,465	50%	65%	+$625	-$0	0.0%	$52,008 (vs do-nothing +$4,158)
$746	11d	11 Aug 2026	$5.48	7/12	$10,462	$10,732	50%	64%	+$320	-$0	0.0%	$51,560 (vs do-nothing +$3,710)
$746	10d	10 Aug 2026	$5.05	6/12	$9,090	$9,414	50%	64%	+$149	-$0	0.0%	$50,772 (vs do-nothing +$2,922)
$746	7d	7 Aug 2026	$4.54	5/12	$9,729	$10,107	50%	63%	$-207	-$0	0.0%	$50,030 (vs do-nothing +$2,180)
$746	6d	6 Aug 2026	$3.75	5/12	$9,375	$9,753	50%	63%	$-769	-$0	0.0%	$49,635 (vs do-nothing +$1,785)
$746	5d	5 Aug 2026	$3.21	5/12	$9,630	$10,008	50%	62%	$-819	-$0	0.0%	$49,365 (vs do-nothing +$1,515)
$746	4d	4 Aug 2026	$2.58	5/12	$9,675	$10,053	50%	61%	$-1,844	-$0	0.0%	$49,050 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$745	21d	21 Aug 2026	$9.76	7/12	$9,760	$10,030	49%	65%	+$996	-$0	0.0%	$54,556 (vs do-nothing +$6,706)
$745	28d	28 Aug 2026	$11.94	8/12	$10,234	$10,450	49%	69%	+$3,024	-$0	0.0%	$57,258 (vs do-nothing +$9,408)
$745	14d	14 Aug 2026	$7.69	6/12	$9,887	$10,211	48%	64%	+$602	-$0	0.0%	$52,356 (vs do-nothing +$4,506)
$745	12d	12 Aug 2026	$6.61	6/12	$9,915	$10,239	48%	63%	+$451	-$0	0.0%	$51,708 (vs do-nothing +$3,858)
$744	28d	28 Aug 2026	$12.55	7/12	$9,412	$9,682	48%	65%	+$1,292	-$0	0.0%	$56,509 (vs do-nothing +$8,659)
$745	13d	13 Aug 2026	$7.06	6/12	$9,775	$10,099	48%	65%	+$1,595	-$0	0.0%	$51,978 (vs do-nothing +$4,128)
$745	11d	11 Aug 2026	$6.05	6/12	$9,900	$10,224	48%	64%	+$934	-$0	0.0%	$51,372 (vs do-nothing +$3,522)
$745	10d	10 Aug 2026	$5.61	6/12	$10,098	$10,422	47%	63%	+$647	-$0	0.0%	$51,108 (vs do-nothing +$3,258)
$745	7d	7 Aug 2026	$5.09	5/12	$10,907	$11,285	47%	62%	$-297	-$0	0.0%	$50,305 (vs do-nothing +$2,455)
$744	21d	21 Aug 2026	$10.36	7/12	$10,360	$10,630	47%	64%	+$971	-$0	0.0%	$54,976 (vs do-nothing +$7,126)
$745	6d	6 Aug 2026	$4.28	5/12	$10,700	$11,078	47%	61%	$-932	-$0	0.0%	$49,900 (vs do-nothing +$2,050)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-31 21:46