FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $761.74

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $696.18 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $761.74 UNDERWATER $2.26 (0.3% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $696.18 (banked floor $692.44) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$16,534/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$63,168	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,267/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$16,534/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
9.0 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
9.0 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $696.18 (probe: $750C 14d) still earns $5,786/mo (35% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$3,323

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$696.18 → $692.44

⚠ ASSIGNMENT recorded: 12x $750C 20260731 on 2026-08-03. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 77 (live) · RSI 65 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 62 · %B 93 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $792.54 (+4%) · daily UBB $763.94 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $696.18 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $771 21 Aug 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $771)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$4,896

Income / mo

$8,640

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.68/sh now → $6.13 mid-life (likely $7.19–$9.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,585 simulated challenges: the $771 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 17, at $774 (overshoots $2.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$771	28 Aug 2026	16d left	+$2.37/sh	+$2,849 cycle +$7,745 [+$2,293…+$2,772] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$775	31 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.72/sh	+$858 cycle +$5,754 [-$192…+$573] · 61% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$776	31 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.22/sh	+$266 cycle +$5,162 [-$879…-$77] · 23% credit	72% surv 61%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$775	28 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.07/sh	+$84 cycle +$4,980 [-$867…-$210] · 18% credit	71% surv 59%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$788	31 Aug 2026	18d left	-$3.88/sh	-$4,651 cycle +$245 [-$7,067…-$5,425]	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $4,896 debit $4,651 (95% used ≈ 2.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$245 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,517/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $769 7 Aug 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $769)

82%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$1,080

Income / mo

$10,800

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.58/sh now → $2.53 mid-life (likely $2.78–$4.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 713 simulated challenges: the $769 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $772 (overshoots $2.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$769	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.98/sh	+$1,177 cycle +$2,257 [+$859…+$1,432] · 99% credit	68% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$782	31 Aug 2026	26d left	+$2.08/sh	+$2,496 cycle +$3,576 [+$1,101…+$2,530] · 89% credit	78% surv 72%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$770	10 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.36/sh	+$430 cycle +$1,510 [-$399…+$477] · 53% credit	68% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$789	31 Aug 2026	26d left	+$0.16/sh	+$196 cycle +$1,276 [-$1,597…+$92] · 28% credit	85% surv 82%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$795	31 Aug 2026	26d left	-$0.89/sh	-$1,066 cycle +$14 [-$3,152…-$1,252] · 0% credit	89% surv 88%
budget: banked $1,080 debit $1,066 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,278/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $779 14 Aug 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $779)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$924

Income / mo

$2,772

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.48/sh now → $4.58 mid-life (likely $3.89–$6.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 530 simulated challenges: the $779 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $782 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$779	17 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.50/sh	+$595 cycle +$1,519 [+$380…+$1,265] · 97% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$787	31 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.96/sh	+$1,157 cycle +$2,081 [+$260…+$1,912] · 82% credit	75% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$789	31 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.16/sh	+$191 cycle +$1,115 [-$847…+$907] · 49% credit	77% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$791	31 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.55/sh	-$659 cycle +$265 [-$1,860…+$58] · 25% credit	79% surv 73%
budget: banked $924 debit $659 (71% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$265 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,603/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (229 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (11 expiries scanned, 229 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.828 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $69,264

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$770	3d	7 Aug 2026	$0.73	12/12	$8,760	$8,760	86%	88%	+$4,621	-$0	0.0%	$64,044 (vs do-nothing $-5,220)
$769	3d	7 Aug 2026	$0.90	10/12	$9,000	$12,048	82%	85%	+$4,358	-$0	0.0%	$65,084 (vs do-nothing $-4,180)
$768	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.11	8/12	$8,880	$14,976	79%	83%	+$3,947	-$0	0.0%	$66,088 (vs do-nothing $-3,176)
$770	8d	12 Aug 2026	$1.85	12/12	$8,325	$8,325	76%	81%	+$3,202	-$0	0.0%	$65,388 (vs do-nothing $-3,876)
$769	7d	11 Aug 2026	$1.64	12/12	$8,434	$8,434	76%	81%	+$3,296	-$0	0.0%	$65,136 (vs do-nothing $-4,128)
$771	10d	14 Aug 2026	$2.30	12/12	$8,280	$8,280	75%	80%	+$3,110	-$0	0.0%	$65,928 (vs do-nothing $-3,336)
$767	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.38	6/12	$8,280	$17,424	75%	80%	+$3,426	-$0	0.0%	$67,044 (vs do-nothing $-2,220)
$768	6d	10 Aug 2026	$1.58	11/12	$8,690	$10,214	75%	80%	+$3,272	-$0	0.0%	$65,414 (vs do-nothing $-3,850)
$770	9d	13 Aug 2026	$2.18	12/12	$8,720	$8,720	74%	80%	+$3,160	-$0	0.0%	$65,784 (vs do-nothing $-3,480)
$769	8d	12 Aug 2026	$2.14	11/12	$8,828	$10,352	73%	79%	+$3,181	-$0	0.0%	$66,030 (vs do-nothing $-3,234)
$768	7d	11 Aug 2026	$1.93	10/12	$8,271	$11,319	73%	79%	+$3,002	-$0	0.0%	$66,114 (vs do-nothing $-3,150)
$770	10d	14 Aug 2026	$2.61	11/12	$8,613	$10,137	73%	79%	+$3,069	-$0	0.0%	$66,547 (vs do-nothing $-2,717)
$769	9d	13 Aug 2026	$2.48	11/12	$9,093	$10,617	72%	78%	+$3,076	-$0	0.0%	$66,404 (vs do-nothing $-2,860)

Show 216 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 216.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$767	6d	10 Aug 2026	$1.88	9/12	$8,460	$13,032	72%	78%	+$3,068	-$0	0.0%	$66,384 (vs do-nothing $-2,880)
$770	13d	17 Aug 2026	$3.05	12/12	$8,446	$8,446	71%	78%	+$2,902	-$0	0.0%	$66,828 (vs do-nothing $-2,436)
$766	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.67	5/12	$8,350	$19,018	71%	78%	+$3,091	-$0	0.0%	$67,559 (vs do-nothing $-1,705)
$768	8d	12 Aug 2026	$2.46	9/12	$8,302	$12,874	70%	77%	+$2,786	-$0	0.0%	$66,906 (vs do-nothing $-2,358)
$770	14d	18 Aug 2026	$3.36	12/12	$8,640	$8,640	70%	77%	+$2,895	-$0	0.0%	$67,200 (vs do-nothing $-2,064)
$769	10d	14 Aug 2026	$2.94	10/12	$8,820	$11,868	70%	77%	+$2,958	-$0	0.0%	$67,124 (vs do-nothing $-2,140)
$771	17d	21 Aug 2026	$4.08	12/12	$8,640	$8,640	70%	77%	+$3,147	-$0	0.0%	$68,064 (vs do-nothing $-1,200)
$767	7d	11 Aug 2026	$2.26	9/12	$8,717	$13,289	70%	77%	+$2,916	-$0	0.0%	$66,726 (vs do-nothing $-2,538)
$768	9d	13 Aug 2026	$2.84	9/12	$8,520	$13,092	69%	76%	+$2,738	-$0	0.0%	$67,248 (vs do-nothing $-2,016)
$770	17d	21 Aug 2026	$4.46	11/12	$8,658	$10,182	68%	76%	+$2,920	-$0	0.0%	$68,582 (vs do-nothing $-682)
$766	6d	10 Aug 2026	$2.22	8/12	$8,880	$14,976	68%	76%	+$2,823	-$0	0.0%	$66,976 (vs do-nothing $-2,288)
$768	10d	14 Aug 2026	$3.31	9/12	$8,937	$13,509	68%	76%	+$2,833	-$0	0.0%	$67,671 (vs do-nothing $-1,593)
$772	24d	28 Aug 2026	$5.77	12/12	$8,655	$8,655	68%	76%	+$2,905	-$0	0.0%	$70,092 (vs do-nothing +$828)
$767	8d	12 Aug 2026	$2.81	8/12	$8,430	$14,526	67%	75%	+$2,615	-$0	0.0%	$67,448 (vs do-nothing $-1,816)
$772	27d	31 Aug 2026	$6.23	12/12	$8,307	$8,307	67%	75%	+$2,776	-$0	0.0%	$70,644 (vs do-nothing +$1,380)
$765	3d	7 Aug 2026	$2.03	5/12	$10,150	$20,818	66%	75%	+$3,390	-$0	0.0%	$67,739 (vs do-nothing $-1,525)
$767	9d	13 Aug 2026	$3.20	8/12	$8,533	$14,629	66%	75%	+$2,531	-$0	0.0%	$67,760 (vs do-nothing $-1,504)
$766	7d	11 Aug 2026	$2.62	8/12	$8,983	$15,079	66%	75%	+$2,726	-$0	0.0%	$67,296 (vs do-nothing $-1,968)
$771	24d	28 Aug 2026	$6.18	11/12	$8,498	$10,022	66%	75%	+$2,756	-$0	0.0%	$70,474 (vs do-nothing +$1,210)
$769	17d	21 Aug 2026	$4.87	10/12	$8,594	$11,642	66%	75%	+$2,764	-$0	0.0%	$69,054 (vs do-nothing $-210)
$771	27d	31 Aug 2026	$6.65	12/12	$8,867	$8,867	65%	75%	+$2,868	-$0	0.0%	$71,148 (vs do-nothing +$1,884)
$767	10d	14 Aug 2026	$3.70	8/12	$8,880	$14,976	65%	74%	+$2,637	-$0	0.0%	$68,160 (vs do-nothing $-1,104)
$770	24d	28 Aug 2026	$6.61	11/12	$9,089	$10,613	64%	74%	+$2,848	-$0	0.0%	$70,947 (vs do-nothing +$1,683)
$766	8d	12 Aug 2026	$3.20	7/12	$8,400	$16,020	64%	74%	+$2,407	-$0	0.0%	$67,948 (vs do-nothing $-1,316)
$768	17d	21 Aug 2026	$5.28	9/12	$8,386	$12,958	64%	74%	+$2,642	-$0	0.0%	$69,444 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$770	27d	31 Aug 2026	$7.09	11/12	$8,666	$10,190	64%	74%	+$2,711	-$0	0.0%	$71,475 (vs do-nothing +$2,211)
$766	9d	13 Aug 2026	$3.59	7/12	$8,377	$15,997	63%	73%	+$2,275	-$0	0.0%	$68,221 (vs do-nothing $-1,043)
$769	24d	28 Aug 2026	$7.06	10/12	$8,825	$11,873	63%	73%	+$2,669	-$0	0.0%	$71,244 (vs do-nothing +$1,980)
$765	7d	11 Aug 2026	$3.03	7/12	$9,090	$16,710	62%	73%	+$2,515	-$0	0.0%	$67,829 (vs do-nothing $-1,435)
$766	10d	14 Aug 2026	$4.13	7/12	$8,673	$16,293	62%	73%	+$2,422	-$0	0.0%	$68,599 (vs do-nothing $-665)
$769	27d	31 Aug 2026	$7.54	10/12	$8,378	$11,426	62%	73%	+$2,527	-$0	0.0%	$71,724 (vs do-nothing +$2,460)
$765	6d	10 Aug 2026	$2.60	7/12	$9,100	$16,720	62%	70%	+$922	-$0	0.0%	$67,528 (vs do-nothing $-1,736)
$767	17d	21 Aug 2026	$5.74	9/12	$9,116	$13,688	62%	73%	+$2,752	-$0	0.0%	$69,858 (vs do-nothing +$594)
$764	3d	7 Aug 2026	$2.43	4/12	$9,720	$21,912	61%	72%	+$2,877	-$0	0.0%	$68,204 (vs do-nothing $-1,060)
$768	24d	28 Aug 2026	$7.53	9/12	$8,471	$13,043	61%	72%	+$2,472	-$0	0.0%	$71,469 (vs do-nothing +$2,205)
$765	8d	12 Aug 2026	$3.64	7/12	$9,555	$17,175	61%	72%	+$2,543	-$0	0.0%	$68,256 (vs do-nothing $-1,008)
$768	27d	31 Aug 2026	$8.00	10/12	$8,889	$11,937	61%	72%	+$2,576	-$0	0.0%	$72,184 (vs do-nothing +$2,920)
$765	9d	13 Aug 2026	$4.05	7/12	$9,450	$17,070	60%	71%	+$2,404	-$0	0.0%	$68,543 (vs do-nothing $-721)
$764	6d	10 Aug 2026	$3.03	6/12	$9,090	$18,234	60%	71%	+$2,478	-$0	0.0%	$68,034 (vs do-nothing $-1,230)
$766	17d	21 Aug 2026	$6.19	8/12	$8,739	$14,835	59%	71%	+$2,412	-$0	0.0%	$70,152 (vs do-nothing +$888)
$765	10d	14 Aug 2026	$4.59	7/12	$9,639	$17,259	59%	71%	+$2,522	-$0	0.0%	$68,921 (vs do-nothing $-343)
$767	24d	28 Aug 2026	$7.99	9/12	$8,989	$13,561	59%	72%	+$2,505	-$0	0.0%	$71,883 (vs do-nothing +$2,619)
$767	27d	31 Aug 2026	$8.49	9/12	$8,490	$13,062	59%	71%	+$2,371	-$0	0.0%	$72,333 (vs do-nothing +$3,069)
$765	13d	17 Aug 2026	$5.11	8/12	$9,434	$15,530	59%	71%	+$2,392	-$0	0.0%	$69,288 (vs do-nothing +$24)
$764	7d	11 Aug 2026	$3.48	6/12	$8,949	$18,093	59%	71%	+$2,253	-$0	0.0%	$68,304 (vs do-nothing $-960)
$765	14d	18 Aug 2026	$5.48	8/12	$9,394	$15,490	58%	71%	+$2,369	-$0	0.0%	$69,584 (vs do-nothing +$320)
$764	8d	12 Aug 2026	$4.09	6/12	$9,202	$18,346	58%	70%	+$2,220	-$0	0.0%	$68,670 (vs do-nothing $-594)
$766	24d	28 Aug 2026	$8.50	8/12	$8,500	$14,596	58%	71%	+$2,284	-$0	0.0%	$72,000 (vs do-nothing +$2,736)
$766	27d	31 Aug 2026	$9.01	9/12	$9,010	$13,582	57%	71%	+$2,433	-$0	0.0%	$72,801 (vs do-nothing +$3,537)
$765	17d	21 Aug 2026	$6.72	7/12	$8,301	$15,921	57%	70%	+$2,208	-$0	0.0%	$70,412 (vs do-nothing +$1,148)
$764	9d	13 Aug 2026	$4.52	6/12	$9,040	$18,184	57%	70%	+$2,114	-$0	0.0%	$68,928 (vs do-nothing $-336)
$764	10d	14 Aug 2026	$5.08	6/12	$9,144	$18,288	57%	70%	+$2,238	-$0	0.0%	$69,264 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$763	3d	7 Aug 2026	$2.87	3/12	$8,610	$22,326	56%	70%	+$2,165	-$0	0.0%	$68,601 (vs do-nothing $-663)
$765	24d	28 Aug 2026	$9.03	8/12	$9,030	$15,126	56%	70%	+$2,339	-$0	0.0%	$72,424 (vs do-nothing +$3,160)
$765	27d	31 Aug 2026	$9.54	8/12	$8,480	$14,576	56%	70%	+$2,207	-$0	0.0%	$72,832 (vs do-nothing +$3,568)
$764	17d	21 Aug 2026	$7.23	7/12	$8,931	$16,551	55%	70%	+$2,317	-$0	0.0%	$70,769 (vs do-nothing +$1,505)
$763	7d	11 Aug 2026	$3.96	5/12	$8,486	$19,154	55%	69%	+$1,923	-$0	0.0%	$68,704 (vs do-nothing $-560)
$763	6d	10 Aug 2026	$3.52	5/12	$8,800	$19,468	55%	67%	+$945	-$0	0.0%	$68,484 (vs do-nothing $-780)
$763	8d	12 Aug 2026	$4.58	5/12	$8,588	$19,256	54%	69%	+$1,877	-$0	0.0%	$69,014 (vs do-nothing $-250)
$764	24d	28 Aug 2026	$9.57	7/12	$8,374	$15,994	54%	69%	+$2,083	-$0	0.0%	$72,407 (vs do-nothing +$3,143)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-04 21:40