FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $763.73

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $703.03 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $763.73 UNDERWATER $0.27 (0.0% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $703.03 (banked floor $697.21) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$16,457/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$59,490	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,229/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$16,457/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
9.0 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
9.0 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $703.03 (probe: $750C 14d) still earns $4,294/mo (26% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,271

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$703.03 → $697.21

⚠ ASSIGNMENT recorded: 12x $750C 20260731 on 2026-08-03. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 73 (live) · RSI 62 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 26 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $780.53 (+2%) · daily UBB $776.69 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $703.03 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $750 11 Sep 2026 (2d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $750)

Touch odds

100%

Per cycle

$17,112

Income / mo

$256,680

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$750	14 Sep 2026	4d left	+$1.76/sh	+$2,106 cycle +$19,218	68% surv 50%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$770	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.21/sh	+$249 cycle +$17,361	83% surv 80%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$778	2 Oct 2026	22d left	-$1.35/sh	-$1,624 cycle +$15,488	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $17,112 debit $1,624 (9% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15,488 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,915/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $771 11 Sep 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $771)

83%

Touch odds

34%

Per cycle

$1,032

Income / mo

$15,480

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.67/sh now → $2.59 mid-life (likely $2.92–$5.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 693 simulated challenges: the $771 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $774 (overshoots $3.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$771	14 Sep 2026	4d left	+$1.40/sh	+$1,674 cycle +$2,706 [+$1,592…+$1,832] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$772	14 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.62/sh	+$744 cycle +$1,776 [+$198…+$726] · 83% credit	70% surv 56%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$782	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.50/sh	+$1,796 cycle +$2,828 [-$137…+$1,659] · 73% credit	77% surv 71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$786	2 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.22/sh	+$265 cycle +$1,297 [-$2,016…+$67] · 28% credit	81% surv 77%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$790	2 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.73/sh	-$873 cycle +$159 [-$3,479…-$1,138]	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $1,032 debit $873 (85% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$159 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,055/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $785 25 Sep 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $785)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$936

Income / mo

$1,755

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.07/sh now → $5.71 mid-life (likely $5.21–$7.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 693 simulated challenges: the $785 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 16, at $788 (overshoots $2.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$785	30 Sep 2026	13d left	+$0.99/sh	+$1,187 cycle +$2,123 [+$890…+$1,805] · 100% credit	66% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$786	2 Oct 2026	15d left	+$1.13/sh	+$1,360 cycle +$2,296 [+$977…+$1,949] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$786	30 Sep 2026	13d left	+$0.28/sh	+$334 cycle +$1,270 [-$64…+$850] · 69% credit	67% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$788	2 Oct 2026	15d left	+$0.07/sh	+$84 cycle +$1,020 [-$462…+$565] · 45% credit	69% surv 58%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$789	2 Oct 2026	15d left	-$0.43/sh	-$513 cycle +$423 [-$1,158…-$63] · 23% credit	71% surv 60%
budget: banked $936 debit $513 (55% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$423 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $12,669/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (157 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (12 expiries scanned, 157 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.843 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $68,718

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$773	2d	11 Sep 2026	$0.56	10/12	$8,400	$11,284	89%	90%	+$5,178	-$0	0.0%	$61,588 (vs do-nothing $-7,130)
$772	2d	11 Sep 2026	$0.67	9/12	$9,045	$13,371	86%	88%	+$5,016	-$0	0.0%	$62,400 (vs do-nothing $-6,318)
$771	2d	11 Sep 2026	$0.86	7/12	$9,030	$16,239	83%	86%	+$4,563	-$0	0.0%	$63,937 (vs do-nothing $-4,781)
$770	2d	11 Sep 2026	$1.09	6/12	$9,810	$18,461	79%	83%	+$4,516	-$0	0.0%	$64,758 (vs do-nothing $-3,960)
$770	5d	14 Sep 2026	$1.64	9/12	$8,856	$13,182	75%	80%	+$3,687	-$0	0.0%	$63,273 (vs do-nothing $-5,445)
$769	2d	11 Sep 2026	$1.36	5/12	$10,200	$20,293	75%	80%	+$4,170	-$0	0.0%	$65,553 (vs do-nothing $-3,165)
$773	9d	18 Sep 2026	$2.11	12/12	$8,440	$8,440	75%	80%	+$2,671	-$0	0.0%	$62,022 (vs do-nothing $-6,696)
$768	2d	11 Sep 2026	$1.69	4/12	$10,140	$21,675	74%	81%	+$5,430	-$0	0.0%	$66,318 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$770	6d	15 Sep 2026	$1.85	9/12	$8,325	$12,651	73%	79%	+$2,869	-$0	0.0%	$63,462 (vs do-nothing $-5,256)
$772	9d	18 Sep 2026	$2.43	11/12	$8,910	$10,352	73%	78%	+$2,646	-$0	0.0%	$62,932 (vs do-nothing $-5,786)
$771	9d	18 Sep 2026	$2.77	9/12	$8,310	$12,636	70%	76%	+$2,281	-$0	0.0%	$64,290 (vs do-nothing $-4,428)
$770	7d	16 Sep 2026	$2.58	8/12	$8,846	$14,613	70%	77%	+$2,807	-$0	0.0%	$64,630 (vs do-nothing $-4,088)
$770	8d	17 Sep 2026	$3.05	8/12	$9,150	$14,918	68%	76%	+$2,741	-$0	0.0%	$65,006 (vs do-nothing $-3,712)

Show 144 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 144.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$772	16d	25 Sep 2026	$3.80	12/12	$8,550	$8,550	68%	75%	+$1,892	-$0	0.0%	$64,050 (vs do-nothing $-4,668)
$770	9d	18 Sep 2026	$3.15	8/12	$8,400	$14,168	67%	75%	+$2,155	-$0	0.0%	$65,086 (vs do-nothing $-3,632)
$770	12d	21 Sep 2026	$3.47	10/12	$8,675	$11,559	66%	74%	+$1,906	-$0	0.0%	$64,498 (vs do-nothing $-4,220)
$767	2d	11 Sep 2026	$2.06	3/12	$9,270	$22,247	66%	75%	+$3,030	-$0	0.0%	$67,029 (vs do-nothing $-1,689)
$772	21d	30 Sep 2026	$4.89	12/12	$8,383	$8,383	66%	74%	+$1,931	-$0	0.0%	$65,358 (vs do-nothing $-3,360)
$771	16d	25 Sep 2026	$4.20	11/12	$8,662	$10,104	66%	74%	+$1,817	-$0	0.0%	$64,879 (vs do-nothing $-3,839)
$770	13d	22 Sep 2026	$3.69	10/12	$8,515	$11,399	65%	73%	+$1,746	-$0	0.0%	$64,718 (vs do-nothing $-4,000)
$770	14d	23 Sep 2026	$3.96	10/12	$8,486	$11,369	65%	73%	+$1,672	-$0	0.0%	$64,988 (vs do-nothing $-3,730)
$772	23d	2 Oct 2026	$5.67	12/12	$8,875	$8,875	65%	73%	+$2,142	-$0	0.0%	$66,294 (vs do-nothing $-2,424)
$769	9d	18 Sep 2026	$3.56	7/12	$8,307	$15,516	65%	73%	+$1,984	-$0	0.0%	$65,827 (vs do-nothing $-2,891)
$771	21d	30 Sep 2026	$5.32	11/12	$8,360	$9,802	64%	73%	+$1,824	-$0	0.0%	$66,111 (vs do-nothing $-2,607)
$770	16d	25 Sep 2026	$4.63	10/12	$8,681	$11,565	64%	72%	+$1,713	-$0	0.0%	$65,658 (vs do-nothing $-3,060)
$771	23d	2 Oct 2026	$6.12	11/12	$8,781	$10,223	63%	72%	+$2,013	-$0	0.0%	$66,991 (vs do-nothing $-1,727)
$770	21d	30 Sep 2026	$5.77	10/12	$8,243	$11,127	62%	72%	+$1,698	-$0	0.0%	$66,798 (vs do-nothing $-1,920)
$768	9d	18 Sep 2026	$4.01	7/12	$9,357	$16,566	62%	72%	+$2,072	-$0	0.0%	$66,142 (vs do-nothing $-2,576)
$769	16d	25 Sep 2026	$5.07	9/12	$8,556	$12,881	61%	71%	+$1,558	-$0	0.0%	$66,360 (vs do-nothing $-2,358)
$766	2d	11 Sep 2026	$2.48	3/12	$11,160	$24,137	61%	72%	+$3,279	-$0	0.0%	$67,155 (vs do-nothing $-1,563)
$770	23d	2 Oct 2026	$6.59	10/12	$8,596	$11,479	61%	71%	+$1,889	-$0	0.0%	$67,618 (vs do-nothing $-1,100)
$769	21d	30 Sep 2026	$6.24	10/12	$8,914	$11,798	60%	71%	+$1,743	-$0	0.0%	$67,268 (vs do-nothing $-1,450)
$769	23d	2 Oct 2026	$7.08	9/12	$8,311	$12,637	59%	71%	+$1,749	-$0	0.0%	$68,169 (vs do-nothing $-549)
$768	16d	25 Sep 2026	$5.55	8/12	$8,325	$14,092	59%	70%	+$1,451	-$0	0.0%	$67,006 (vs do-nothing $-1,712)
$767	9d	18 Sep 2026	$4.48	6/12	$8,960	$17,611	59%	70%	+$1,865	-$0	0.0%	$66,792 (vs do-nothing $-1,926)
$768	21d	30 Sep 2026	$6.74	9/12	$8,666	$12,991	58%	70%	+$1,610	-$0	0.0%	$67,863 (vs do-nothing $-855)
$768	23d	2 Oct 2026	$7.58	9/12	$8,898	$13,224	58%	70%	+$1,771	-$0	0.0%	$68,619 (vs do-nothing $-99)
$765	2d	11 Sep 2026	$2.95	2/12	$8,850	$23,269	58%	73%	+$3,638	-$0	0.0%	$67,770 (vs do-nothing $-948)
$767	16d	25 Sep 2026	$6.05	8/12	$9,075	$14,842	57%	69%	+$1,483	-$0	0.0%	$67,406 (vs do-nothing $-1,312)
$767	21d	30 Sep 2026	$7.25	8/12	$8,286	$14,053	56%	69%	+$1,438	-$0	0.0%	$68,366 (vs do-nothing $-352)
$766	9d	18 Sep 2026	$4.99	5/12	$8,317	$18,410	56%	69%	+$1,635	-$0	0.0%	$67,368 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$767	23d	2 Oct 2026	$8.11	8/12	$8,463	$14,230	56%	69%	+$1,590	-$0	0.0%	$69,054 (vs do-nothing +$336)
$765	5d	14 Sep 2026	$3.78	4/12	$9,072	$20,607	55%	70%	+$2,421	-$0	0.0%	$67,154 (vs do-nothing $-1,564)
$766	16d	25 Sep 2026	$6.57	7/12	$8,623	$15,833	55%	68%	+$1,306	-$0	0.0%	$67,934 (vs do-nothing $-784)
$765	6d	15 Sep 2026	$4.01	5/12	$10,025	$20,118	55%	69%	+$2,167	-$0	0.0%	$66,878 (vs do-nothing $-1,840)
$766	21d	30 Sep 2026	$7.79	8/12	$8,903	$14,670	55%	68%	+$1,451	-$0	0.0%	$68,798 (vs do-nothing +$80)
$766	23d	2 Oct 2026	$8.66	8/12	$9,037	$14,804	54%	68%	+$1,614	-$0	0.0%	$69,494 (vs do-nothing +$776)
$765	7d	16 Sep 2026	$4.88	4/12	$8,366	$19,901	54%	68%	+$1,773	-$0	0.0%	$67,594 (vs do-nothing $-1,124)
$765	8d	17 Sep 2026	$5.43	5/12	$10,181	$20,274	54%	68%	+$2,115	-$0	0.0%	$67,588 (vs do-nothing $-1,130)
$765	9d	18 Sep 2026	$5.53	5/12	$9,217	$19,310	54%	68%	+$1,659	-$0	0.0%	$67,638 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$765	12d	21 Sep 2026	$5.89	6/12	$8,835	$17,486	53%	67%	+$1,368	-$0	0.0%	$67,638 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$765	13d	22 Sep 2026	$6.13	6/12	$8,488	$17,139	53%	67%	+$1,207	-$0	0.0%	$67,782 (vs do-nothing $-936)
$765	14d	23 Sep 2026	$6.40	6/12	$8,229	$16,880	53%	67%	+$1,123	-$0	0.0%	$67,944 (vs do-nothing $-774)
$765	16d	25 Sep 2026	$7.12	7/12	$9,345	$16,554	53%	67%	+$1,346	-$0	0.0%	$68,319 (vs do-nothing $-399)
$765	21d	30 Sep 2026	$8.35	7/12	$8,350	$15,559	53%	67%	+$1,301	-$0	0.0%	$69,180 (vs do-nothing +$462)
$765	23d	2 Oct 2026	$9.23	7/12	$8,427	$15,637	53%	67%	+$1,455	-$0	0.0%	$69,796 (vs do-nothing +$1,078)
$764	2d	11 Sep 2026	$3.47	2/12	$10,410	$24,829	52%	67%	+$2,285	-$0	0.0%	$67,874 (vs do-nothing $-844)
$764	9d	18 Sep 2026	$6.10	5/12	$10,167	$20,260	51%	66%	+$1,724	-$0	0.0%	$67,923 (vs do-nothing $-795)
$764	23d	2 Oct 2026	$9.81	7/12	$8,957	$16,166	51%	66%	+$1,470	-$0	0.0%	$70,202 (vs do-nothing +$1,484)
$764	21d	30 Sep 2026	$8.93	7/12	$8,930	$16,139	51%	66%	+$1,328	-$0	0.0%	$69,586 (vs do-nothing +$868)
$764	16d	25 Sep 2026	$7.69	6/12	$8,651	$17,302	51%	66%	+$1,179	-$0	0.0%	$68,718 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$763	23d	2 Oct 2026	$10.41	7/12	$9,505	$16,714	49%	66%	+$1,478	-$0	0.0%	$70,622 (vs do-nothing +$1,904)
$763	21d	30 Sep 2026	$9.53	7/12	$9,530	$16,739	49%	65%	+$1,339	-$0	0.0%	$70,006 (vs do-nothing +$1,288)
$763	16d	25 Sep 2026	$8.28	6/12	$9,315	$17,966	49%	65%	+$1,186	-$0	0.0%	$69,072 (vs do-nothing +$354)
$763	9d	18 Sep 2026	$6.70	4/12	$8,933	$20,468	49%	65%	+$1,434	-$0	0.0%	$68,322 (vs do-nothing $-396)
$762	23d	2 Oct 2026	$11.03	6/12	$8,632	$17,283	48%	65%	+$1,268	-$0	0.0%	$70,722 (vs do-nothing +$2,004)
$762	21d	30 Sep 2026	$10.14	6/12	$8,691	$17,343	48%	65%	+$1,139	-$0	0.0%	$70,188 (vs do-nothing +$1,470)
$762	16d	25 Sep 2026	$8.89	5/12	$8,334	$18,428	47%	64%	+$979	-$0	0.0%	$69,318 (vs do-nothing +$600)
$763	2d	11 Sep 2026	$4.05	2/12	$12,150	$26,569	47%	66%	+$2,438	-$0	0.0%	$67,990 (vs do-nothing $-728)
$761	23d	2 Oct 2026	$11.62	6/12	$9,094	$17,745	46%	64%	+$1,244	-$0	0.0%	$71,076 (vs do-nothing +$2,358)
$762	9d	18 Sep 2026	$7.32	4/12	$9,760	$21,295	46%	64%	+$1,421	-$0	0.0%	$68,570 (vs do-nothing $-148)
$761	21d	30 Sep 2026	$10.78	6/12	$9,240	$17,891	46%	64%	+$1,156	-$0	0.0%	$70,572 (vs do-nothing +$1,854)
$761	16d	25 Sep 2026	$9.52	5/12	$8,925	$19,018	45%	63%	+$1,007	-$0	0.0%	$69,633 (vs do-nothing +$915)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-09 21:47