FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $758.21

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $703.43 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $758.21 UNDERWATER $5.79 (0.8% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $703.43 (banked floor $697.62) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$18,334/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$53,688	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,167/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$18,334/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
8.1 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
8.1 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $703.43 (probe: $745C 14d) still earns $6,969/mo (38% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,271

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$703.43 → $697.62

⚠ ASSIGNMENT recorded: 12x $750C 20260731 on 2026-08-03. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 65 (live) · RSI 59 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 5 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $779.88 (+3%) · daily UBB $775.87 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $703.43 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $767 22 Sep 2026 (12d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $767)

70%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$3,912

Income / mo

$9,780

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 6 of 12); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.78/sh now → $5.50 mid-life (likely $6.54–$9.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,526 simulated challenges: the $767 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 12, at $770 (overshoots $3.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$771	2 Oct 2026	16d left	+$1.27/sh	+$1,524 cycle +$5,436 [+$344…+$1,264] · 88% credit	69% surv 58%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$767	23 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.13/sh	+$158 cycle +$4,070 [-$186…+$87] · 35% credit	66% surv 50%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$773	2 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.28/sh	+$341 cycle +$4,253 [-$1,052…-$26] · 24% credit	72% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$782	2 Oct 2026	16d left	-$3.06/sh	-$3,673 cycle +$239 [-$6,136…-$4,414]	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $3,912 debit $3,673 (94% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$239 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $5,496/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $766 14 Sep 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $766)

81%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$1,416

Income / mo

$10,620

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.58/sh now → $3.24 mid-life (likely $3.49–$6.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 902 simulated challenges: the $766 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $769 (overshoots $2.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$766	15 Sep 2026	3d left	+$0.69/sh	+$824 cycle +$2,240 [+$544…+$792] · 98% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$775	2 Oct 2026	20d left	+$2.14/sh	+$2,566 cycle +$3,982 [+$921…+$2,554] · 88% credit	74% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$767	15 Sep 2026	3d left	+$0.23/sh	+$277 cycle +$1,693 [-$165…+$205] · 56% credit	69% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$780	2 Oct 2026	20d left	+$0.25/sh	+$296 cycle +$1,712 [-$1,771…+$196] · 30% credit	79% surv 74%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$785	2 Oct 2026	20d left	-$1.13/sh	-$1,360 cycle +$56 [-$3,789…-$1,542] · 2% credit	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $1,416 debit $1,360 (96% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,786/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $777 21 Sep 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $777)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$840

Income / mo

$2,291

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.64/sh now → $5.40 mid-life (likely $5.04–$7.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 689 simulated challenges: the $777 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $780 (overshoots $3.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$781	30 Sep 2026	14d left	+$0.47/sh	+$566 cycle +$1,406 [-$263…+$1,186] · 62% credit	70% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$783	2 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.28/sh	+$336 cycle +$1,176 [-$628…+$913] · 48% credit	72% surv 62%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$777	22 Sep 2026	6d left	-$0.07/sh	-$83 cycle +$757 [-$306…+$188] · 38% credit	66% surv 50%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$785	2 Oct 2026	16d left	-$0.62/sh	-$747 cycle +$93 [-$1,900…-$213] · 20% credit	74% surv 66%
budget: banked $840 debit $747 (89% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$93 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $10,750/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (274 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (12 expiries scanned, 274 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.841 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $58,812

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$769	6d	16 Sep 2026	$1.56	12/12	$9,360	$9,360	81%	84%	+$4,490	-$0	0.0%	$55,560 (vs do-nothing $-3,252)
$766	4d	14 Sep 2026	$1.18	11/12	$9,735	$10,900	81%	84%	+$4,735	-$0	0.0%	$55,413 (vs do-nothing $-3,399)
$767	5d	15 Sep 2026	$1.34	12/12	$9,648	$9,648	81%	84%	+$4,635	-$0	0.0%	$55,296 (vs do-nothing $-3,516)
$769	7d	17 Sep 2026	$1.98	11/12	$9,334	$10,499	79%	83%	+$4,167	-$0	0.0%	$56,293 (vs do-nothing $-2,519)
$768	6d	16 Sep 2026	$1.84	10/12	$9,200	$11,529	79%	83%	+$4,187	-$0	0.0%	$56,382 (vs do-nothing $-2,430)
$766	5d	15 Sep 2026	$1.62	10/12	$9,720	$12,049	78%	82%	+$4,367	-$0	0.0%	$56,162 (vs do-nothing $-2,650)
$765	4d	14 Sep 2026	$1.46	9/12	$9,855	$13,349	78%	82%	+$4,500	-$0	0.0%	$56,283 (vs do-nothing $-2,529)
$769	8d	18 Sep 2026	$2.08	12/12	$9,360	$9,360	78%	82%	+$3,592	-$0	0.0%	$56,184 (vs do-nothing $-2,628)
$768	7d	17 Sep 2026	$2.28	10/12	$9,771	$12,101	76%	81%	+$4,110	-$0	0.0%	$56,822 (vs do-nothing $-1,990)
$767	6d	16 Sep 2026	$2.14	9/12	$9,630	$13,124	76%	81%	+$4,114	-$0	0.0%	$56,895 (vs do-nothing $-1,917)
$768	8d	18 Sep 2026	$2.39	11/12	$9,859	$11,023	75%	80%	+$3,590	-$0	0.0%	$56,744 (vs do-nothing $-2,068)
$765	5d	15 Sep 2026	$1.94	8/12	$9,312	$13,970	74%	80%	+$3,899	-$0	0.0%	$56,948 (vs do-nothing $-1,864)
$767	7d	17 Sep 2026	$2.62	9/12	$10,106	$13,599	74%	80%	+$4,021	-$0	0.0%	$57,327 (vs do-nothing $-1,485)

Show 261 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 261.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$764	4d	14 Sep 2026	$1.78	7/12	$9,345	$15,168	74%	80%	+$3,930	-$0	0.0%	$57,069 (vs do-nothing $-1,743)
$766	6d	16 Sep 2026	$2.49	8/12	$9,960	$14,618	73%	79%	+$4,026	-$0	0.0%	$57,388 (vs do-nothing $-1,424)
$767	8d	18 Sep 2026	$2.72	9/12	$9,180	$12,674	73%	79%	+$3,139	-$0	0.0%	$57,417 (vs do-nothing $-1,395)
$766	7d	17 Sep 2026	$2.99	8/12	$10,251	$14,910	71%	78%	+$3,852	-$0	0.0%	$57,788 (vs do-nothing $-1,024)
$764	5d	15 Sep 2026	$2.30	7/12	$9,660	$15,483	71%	78%	+$3,751	-$0	0.0%	$57,433 (vs do-nothing $-1,379)
$767	11d	21 Sep 2026	$3.04	12/12	$9,949	$9,949	71%	77%	+$2,755	-$0	0.0%	$57,336 (vs do-nothing $-1,476)
$765	6d	16 Sep 2026	$2.86	7/12	$10,010	$15,833	70%	78%	+$3,789	-$0	0.0%	$57,825 (vs do-nothing $-987)
$766	8d	18 Sep 2026	$3.09	8/12	$9,270	$13,928	70%	77%	+$2,969	-$0	0.0%	$57,868 (vs do-nothing $-944)
$767	12d	22 Sep 2026	$3.26	12/12	$9,780	$9,780	70%	76%	+$2,525	-$0	0.0%	$57,600 (vs do-nothing $-1,212)
$763	4d	14 Sep 2026	$2.14	6/12	$9,630	$16,617	70%	77%	+$3,676	-$0	0.0%	$57,534 (vs do-nothing $-1,278)
$767	13d	23 Sep 2026	$3.52	12/12	$9,748	$9,748	69%	76%	+$2,426	-$0	0.0%	$57,912 (vs do-nothing $-900)
$766	11d	21 Sep 2026	$3.42	10/12	$9,327	$11,656	69%	76%	+$2,437	-$0	0.0%	$57,962 (vs do-nothing $-850)
$765	7d	17 Sep 2026	$3.39	7/12	$10,170	$15,993	69%	76%	+$3,600	-$0	0.0%	$58,196 (vs do-nothing $-616)
$766	12d	22 Sep 2026	$3.65	11/12	$10,038	$11,202	68%	75%	+$2,444	-$0	0.0%	$58,130 (vs do-nothing $-682)
$767	15d	25 Sep 2026	$4.14	12/12	$9,936	$9,936	68%	75%	+$2,321	-$0	0.0%	$58,656 (vs do-nothing $-156)
$765	8d	18 Sep 2026	$3.49	8/12	$10,470	$15,128	68%	75%	+$3,166	-$0	0.0%	$58,188 (vs do-nothing $-624)
$763	5d	15 Sep 2026	$2.70	6/12	$9,720	$16,707	68%	76%	+$3,486	-$0	0.0%	$57,870 (vs do-nothing $-942)
$764	6d	16 Sep 2026	$3.27	6/12	$9,810	$16,797	67%	76%	+$3,484	-$0	0.0%	$58,212 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$766	13d	23 Sep 2026	$3.91	11/12	$9,925	$11,090	67%	75%	+$2,320	-$0	0.0%	$58,416 (vs do-nothing $-396)
$765	11d	21 Sep 2026	$3.83	9/12	$9,401	$12,895	66%	74%	+$2,320	-$0	0.0%	$58,416 (vs do-nothing $-396)
$764	7d	17 Sep 2026	$3.82	6/12	$9,823	$16,810	66%	75%	+$3,271	-$0	0.0%	$58,542 (vs do-nothing $-270)
$762	4d	14 Sep 2026	$2.55	5/12	$9,562	$17,714	66%	75%	+$3,337	-$0	0.0%	$57,952 (vs do-nothing $-860)
$767	20d	30 Sep 2026	$5.25	12/12	$9,450	$9,450	66%	74%	+$2,242	-$0	0.0%	$59,988 (vs do-nothing +$1,176)
$766	15d	25 Sep 2026	$4.56	11/12	$10,032	$11,197	66%	74%	+$2,229	-$0	0.0%	$59,131 (vs do-nothing +$319)
$765	12d	22 Sep 2026	$4.07	10/12	$10,175	$12,504	66%	74%	+$2,340	-$0	0.0%	$58,612 (vs do-nothing $-200)
$764	8d	18 Sep 2026	$3.92	7/12	$10,290	$16,113	65%	74%	+$2,951	-$0	0.0%	$58,567 (vs do-nothing $-245)
$765	13d	23 Sep 2026	$4.33	10/12	$9,992	$12,321	65%	73%	+$2,199	-$0	0.0%	$58,872 (vs do-nothing +$60)
$767	22d	2 Oct 2026	$5.99	12/12	$9,802	$9,802	65%	73%	+$2,306	-$0	0.0%	$60,876 (vs do-nothing +$2,064)
$763	6d	16 Sep 2026	$3.72	5/12	$9,300	$17,452	65%	74%	+$3,108	-$0	0.0%	$58,537 (vs do-nothing $-275)
$765	14d	24 Sep 2026	$4.61	10/12	$9,879	$12,208	64%	73%	+$2,103	-$0	0.0%	$59,152 (vs do-nothing +$340)
$766	20d	30 Sep 2026	$5.69	11/12	$9,388	$10,553	64%	73%	+$2,114	-$0	0.0%	$60,374 (vs do-nothing +$1,562)
$764	11d	21 Sep 2026	$4.27	8/12	$9,316	$13,975	64%	73%	+$2,174	-$0	0.0%	$58,812 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$762	5d	15 Sep 2026	$3.15	5/12	$9,450	$17,602	64%	74%	+$3,068	-$0	0.0%	$58,252 (vs do-nothing $-560)
$765	15d	25 Sep 2026	$4.99	10/12	$9,980	$12,309	64%	73%	+$2,084	-$0	0.0%	$59,532 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$764	12d	22 Sep 2026	$4.51	9/12	$10,147	$13,641	63%	72%	+$2,190	-$0	0.0%	$59,028 (vs do-nothing +$216)
$763	7d	17 Sep 2026	$4.29	5/12	$9,193	$17,345	63%	73%	+$2,889	-$0	0.0%	$58,822 (vs do-nothing +$10)
$766	22d	2 Oct 2026	$6.45	11/12	$9,675	$10,840	63%	72%	+$2,185	-$0	0.0%	$61,210 (vs do-nothing +$2,398)
$764	13d	23 Sep 2026	$4.76	9/12	$9,886	$13,380	63%	72%	+$2,020	-$0	0.0%	$59,253 (vs do-nothing +$441)
$763	8d	18 Sep 2026	$4.38	6/12	$9,855	$16,842	63%	73%	+$2,650	-$0	0.0%	$58,878 (vs do-nothing +$66)
$765	20d	30 Sep 2026	$6.15	10/12	$9,225	$11,554	62%	72%	+$1,970	-$0	0.0%	$60,692 (vs do-nothing +$1,880)
$764	15d	25 Sep 2026	$5.45	9/12	$9,810	$13,304	62%	71%	+$1,935	-$0	0.0%	$59,874 (vs do-nothing +$1,062)
$761	4d	14 Sep 2026	$3.01	5/12	$11,288	$19,439	62%	73%	+$3,651	-$0	0.0%	$58,182 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$762	6d	16 Sep 2026	$4.20	5/12	$10,500	$18,652	62%	73%	+$3,286	-$0	0.0%	$58,777 (vs do-nothing $-35)
$763	11d	21 Sep 2026	$4.75	8/12	$10,364	$15,022	62%	72%	+$2,304	-$0	0.0%	$59,196 (vs do-nothing +$384)
$765	22d	2 Oct 2026	$6.92	10/12	$9,436	$11,765	61%	72%	+$2,036	-$0	0.0%	$61,462 (vs do-nothing +$2,650)
$763	12d	22 Sep 2026	$4.98	8/12	$9,960	$14,618	61%	71%	+$2,023	-$0	0.0%	$59,380 (vs do-nothing +$568)
$763	13d	23 Sep 2026	$5.25	8/12	$9,692	$14,350	61%	71%	+$1,889	-$0	0.0%	$59,596 (vs do-nothing +$784)
$764	20d	30 Sep 2026	$6.63	10/12	$9,945	$12,274	60%	71%	+$2,013	-$0	0.0%	$61,172 (vs do-nothing +$2,360)
$762	7d	17 Sep 2026	$4.78	5/12	$10,243	$18,395	60%	72%	+$3,019	-$0	0.0%	$59,067 (vs do-nothing +$255)
$761	5d	15 Sep 2026	$3.63	5/12	$10,890	$19,042	60%	72%	+$3,269	-$0	0.0%	$58,492 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$762	8d	18 Sep 2026	$4.88	6/12	$10,980	$17,967	60%	71%	+$2,832	-$0	0.0%	$59,178 (vs do-nothing +$366)
$764	22d	2 Oct 2026	$7.42	10/12	$10,118	$12,447	60%	71%	+$2,092	-$0	0.0%	$61,962 (vs do-nothing +$3,150)
$763	15d	25 Sep 2026	$5.94	8/12	$9,504	$14,162	60%	70%	+$1,778	-$0	0.0%	$60,148 (vs do-nothing +$1,336)
$762	11d	21 Sep 2026	$5.24	7/12	$10,004	$15,826	59%	70%	+$2,089	-$0	0.0%	$59,491 (vs do-nothing +$679)
$762	12d	22 Sep 2026	$5.48	7/12	$9,590	$15,413	59%	70%	+$1,838	-$0	0.0%	$59,659 (vs do-nothing +$847)
$763	20d	30 Sep 2026	$7.14	9/12	$9,639	$13,133	59%	70%	+$1,859	-$0	0.0%	$61,395 (vs do-nothing +$2,583)
$761	6d	16 Sep 2026	$4.71	4/12	$9,420	$18,736	59%	71%	+$2,753	-$0	0.0%	$58,988 (vs do-nothing +$176)
$762	13d	23 Sep 2026	$5.74	7/12	$9,272	$15,095	58%	70%	+$1,686	-$0	0.0%	$59,841 (vs do-nothing +$1,029)
$763	22d	2 Oct 2026	$7.93	9/12	$9,732	$13,226	58%	70%	+$1,909	-$0	0.0%	$62,106 (vs do-nothing +$3,294)
$762	15d	25 Sep 2026	$6.44	8/12	$10,304	$14,962	58%	69%	+$1,810	-$0	0.0%	$60,548 (vs do-nothing +$1,736)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-10 21:51