FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $759.50

BE SS: $764.00  |  CC-SS: $703.24  |  12 contracts (1,200 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-09-14 21:51

SPY @ $759.50   UNDERWATER $4.50 (0.6% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh)  |  BE SS: $764.00  |  CC-SS: $703.24 (banked floor $697.43)  |  IV: LOW  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$148,800(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref$19,260/mo45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$55,110fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,630/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$19,260/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $148,800
ML VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $148,800
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $703.24 (probe: $745C 14d) still earns $5,271/mo (27% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$5,271
Hole (after banked)
$0
Cycles closed
15
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$703.24 → $697.43
⚠ ASSIGNMENT recorded: 12x $750C 20260731 on 2026-08-03. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 13 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $779.54 (+3%) · daily UBB $773.31 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $703.24 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 12 × $766 21 Sep 2026 (7d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $766)
70%
Touch odds
60%
Per cycle
$2,880
Income / mo
$12,343
🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $769 18 Sep 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $769)
81%
Touch odds
37%
Per cycle
$1,452
Income / mo
$10,890
🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $781 30 Sep 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $781)
90%
Touch odds
20%
Per cycle
$1,080
Income / mo
$2,025
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (217 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 217 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.840 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $60,270

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$7694d18 Sep 2026$1.2111/12$9,982$11,27281%84%+$4,196-$00.0%$56,871 (vs do-nothing $-3,399)
$7684d18 Sep 2026$1.469/12$9,855$13,72579%82%+$3,901-$00.0%$57,714 (vs do-nothing $-2,556)
$7674d18 Sep 2026$1.758/12$10,500$15,66076%80%+$3,882-$00.0%$58,230 (vs do-nothing $-2,040)
$7677d21 Sep 2026$2.0611/12$9,711$11,00173%78%+$2,683-$00.0%$57,806 (vs do-nothing $-2,464)
$7664d18 Sep 2026$2.087/12$10,920$17,37073%78%+$3,866-$00.0%$58,716 (vs do-nothing $-1,554)
$7678d22 Sep 2026$2.3411/12$9,652$10,94272%77%+$2,582-$00.0%$58,114 (vs do-nothing $-2,156)
$76811d25 Sep 2026$3.0712/12$10,047$10,04771%77%+$2,883-$00.0%$58,794 (vs do-nothing $-1,476)
$7679d23 Sep 2026$2.6711/12$9,790$11,08070%77%+$2,603-$00.0%$58,477 (vs do-nothing $-1,793)
$7667d21 Sep 2026$2.4010/12$10,286$12,86670%76%+$2,601-$00.0%$58,370 (vs do-nothing $-1,900)
$76710d24 Sep 2026$3.0211/12$9,966$11,25669%76%+$2,552-$00.0%$58,862 (vs do-nothing $-1,408)
$7654d18 Sep 2026$2.446/12$10,980$18,72069%76%+$3,541-$00.0%$59,154 (vs do-nothing $-1,116)
$7668d22 Sep 2026$2.7010/12$10,125$12,70569%76%+$2,480-$00.0%$58,670 (vs do-nothing $-1,600)
$76711d25 Sep 2026$3.4611/12$10,380$11,67068%75%+$2,804-$00.0%$59,346 (vs do-nothing $-924)
Show 204 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 204.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$7669d23 Sep 2026$3.0510/12$10,167$12,74768%75%+$2,453-$00.0%$59,020 (vs do-nothing $-1,250)
$7657d21 Sep 2026$2.799/12$10,761$14,63167%74%+$2,529-$00.0%$58,911 (vs do-nothing $-1,359)
$76610d24 Sep 2026$3.4210/12$10,260$12,84067%74%+$2,460-$00.0%$59,390 (vs do-nothing $-880)
$76818d2 Oct 2026$5.1012/12$10,200$10,20066%75%+$2,941-$00.0%$61,230 (vs do-nothing +$960)
$7658d22 Sep 2026$3.109/12$10,462$14,33266%74%+$2,381-$00.0%$59,190 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$76611d25 Sep 2026$3.8710/12$10,555$13,13566%74%+$2,660-$00.0%$59,840 (vs do-nothing $-430)
$7644d18 Sep 2026$2.845/12$10,650$19,68066%74%+$3,143-$00.0%$59,540 (vs do-nothing $-730)
$76716d30 Sep 2026$4.7011/12$9,694$10,98466%74%+$2,629-$00.0%$60,710 (vs do-nothing +$440)
$7659d23 Sep 2026$3.469/12$10,380$14,25065%73%+$2,375-$00.0%$59,514 (vs do-nothing $-756)
$76718d2 Oct 2026$5.5611/12$10,193$11,48364%74%+$2,815-$00.0%$61,656 (vs do-nothing +$1,386)
$76510d24 Sep 2026$3.849/12$10,368$14,23864%73%+$2,302-$00.0%$59,856 (vs do-nothing $-414)
$76825d9 Oct 2026$6.8712/12$9,893$9,89364%73%+$2,799-$00.0%$63,354 (vs do-nothing +$3,084)
$7647d21 Sep 2026$3.218/12$11,006$16,16664%73%+$2,383-$00.0%$59,398 (vs do-nothing $-872)
$76616d30 Sep 2026$5.1610/12$9,675$12,25564%73%+$2,492-$00.0%$61,130 (vs do-nothing +$860)
$76511d25 Sep 2026$4.319/12$10,579$14,44963%73%+$2,487-$00.0%$60,279 (vs do-nothing +$9)
$7648d22 Sep 2026$3.538/12$10,590$15,75063%72%+$2,178-$00.0%$59,654 (vs do-nothing $-616)
$76514d28 Sep 2026$4.8110/12$10,307$12,88763%72%+$2,490-$00.0%$60,780 (vs do-nothing +$510)
$76618d2 Oct 2026$6.0410/12$10,067$12,64762%73%+$2,658-$00.0%$62,010 (vs do-nothing +$1,740)
$7649d23 Sep 2026$3.918/12$10,427$15,58762%72%+$2,208-$00.0%$59,958 (vs do-nothing $-312)
$7634d18 Sep 2026$3.304/12$9,900$20,22062%73%+$2,730-$00.0%$59,870 (vs do-nothing $-400)
$76725d9 Oct 2026$7.3611/12$9,715$11,00562%72%+$2,553-$00.0%$63,636 (vs do-nothing +$3,366)
$76410d24 Sep 2026$4.308/12$10,320$15,48062%71%+$2,140-$00.0%$60,270 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$76516d30 Sep 2026$5.6410/12$10,575$13,15562%72%+$2,578-$00.0%$61,610 (vs do-nothing +$1,340)
$76411d25 Sep 2026$4.788/12$10,429$15,58961%71%+$2,287-$00.0%$60,654 (vs do-nothing +$384)
$7637d21 Sep 2026$3.677/12$11,010$17,46061%71%+$2,205-$00.0%$59,829 (vs do-nothing $-441)
$76625d9 Oct 2026$7.8711/12$10,388$11,67861%72%+$2,729-$00.0%$64,197 (vs do-nothing +$3,927)
$76518d2 Oct 2026$6.549/12$9,810$13,68061%72%+$2,473-$00.0%$62,286 (vs do-nothing +$2,016)
$7638d22 Sep 2026$4.007/12$10,500$16,95060%71%+$1,996-$00.0%$60,060 (vs do-nothing $-210)
$7639d23 Sep 2026$4.387/12$10,220$16,67060%70%+$1,962-$00.0%$60,326 (vs do-nothing +$56)
$76416d30 Sep 2026$6.159/12$10,378$14,24859%71%+$2,401-$00.0%$61,935 (vs do-nothing +$1,665)
$76525d9 Oct 2026$8.3910/12$10,068$12,64859%71%+$2,538-$00.0%$64,360 (vs do-nothing +$4,090)
$76310d24 Sep 2026$4.787/12$10,038$16,48859%70%+$1,925-$00.0%$60,606 (vs do-nothing +$336)
$7624d18 Sep 2026$3.784/12$11,340$21,66059%71%+$2,874-$00.0%$60,062 (vs do-nothing $-208)
$76418d2 Oct 2026$7.069/12$10,590$14,46059%71%+$2,544-$00.0%$62,754 (vs do-nothing +$2,484)
$76311d25 Sep 2026$5.297/12$10,099$16,54959%70%+$2,083-$00.0%$60,963 (vs do-nothing +$693)
$7627d21 Sep 2026$4.176/12$10,723$18,46358%69%+$1,994-$00.0%$60,192 (vs do-nothing $-78)
$76425d9 Oct 2026$8.949/12$9,655$13,52558%70%+$2,343-$00.0%$64,446 (vs do-nothing +$4,176)
$76316d30 Sep 2026$6.688/12$10,020$15,18057%70%+$2,195-$00.0%$62,174 (vs do-nothing +$1,904)
$7628d22 Sep 2026$4.506/12$10,125$17,86557%69%+$1,811-$00.0%$60,390 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$7629d23 Sep 2026$4.896/12$9,780$17,52057%69%+$1,771-$00.0%$60,624 (vs do-nothing +$354)
$76318d2 Oct 2026$7.618/12$10,147$15,30757%70%+$2,330-$00.0%$62,918 (vs do-nothing +$2,648)
$76210d24 Sep 2026$5.317/12$11,151$17,60157%69%+$2,013-$00.0%$60,977 (vs do-nothing +$707)
$76211d25 Sep 2026$5.817/12$11,092$17,54256%69%+$2,124-$00.0%$61,327 (vs do-nothing +$1,057)
$76325d9 Oct 2026$9.509/12$10,260$14,13056%69%+$2,392-$00.0%$64,950 (vs do-nothing +$4,680)
$76216d30 Sep 2026$7.238/12$10,845$16,00555%69%+$2,248-$00.0%$62,614 (vs do-nothing +$2,344)
$7614d18 Sep 2026$4.313/12$9,697$21,30755%69%+$2,286-$00.0%$60,273 (vs do-nothing +$3)
$76218d2 Oct 2026$8.178/12$10,893$16,05355%69%+$2,377-$00.0%$63,366 (vs do-nothing +$3,096)
$7617d21 Sep 2026$4.705/12$10,071$19,10155%68%+$1,730-$00.0%$60,470 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$7618d22 Sep 2026$5.036/12$11,318$19,05855%68%+$1,867-$00.0%$60,708 (vs do-nothing +$438)
$76225d9 Oct 2026$10.088/12$9,677$14,83754%69%+$2,182-$00.0%$64,894 (vs do-nothing +$4,624)
$7619d23 Sep 2026$5.436/12$10,860$18,60054%68%+$1,814-$00.0%$60,948 (vs do-nothing +$678)
$76110d24 Sep 2026$5.856/12$10,530$18,27054%68%+$1,763-$00.0%$61,200 (vs do-nothing +$930)
$76111d25 Sep 2026$6.366/12$10,407$18,14754%68%+$1,855-$00.0%$61,506 (vs do-nothing +$1,236)
$76116d30 Sep 2026$7.817/12$10,251$16,70153%68%+$2,021-$00.0%$62,727 (vs do-nothing +$2,457)
$76118d2 Oct 2026$8.767/12$10,220$16,67053%68%+$2,128-$00.0%$63,392 (vs do-nothing +$3,122)
$76125d9 Oct 2026$10.678/12$10,243$15,40353%68%+$2,228-$00.0%$65,366 (vs do-nothing +$5,096)
$7604d18 Sep 2026$4.883/12$10,980$22,59052%68%+$2,388-$00.0%$60,444 (vs do-nothing +$174)
$7607d21 Sep 2026$5.275/12$11,293$20,32352%67%+$1,804-$00.0%$60,755 (vs do-nothing +$485)
$7608d22 Sep 2026$5.605/12$10,500$19,53052%66%+$1,577-$00.0%$60,920 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$7609d23 Sep 2026$6.005/12$10,000$19,03052%66%+$1,519-$00.0%$61,120 (vs do-nothing +$850)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-09-14 21:51