FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $759.87

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $704.01 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $759.87 UNDERWATER $4.13 (0.5% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $704.01 (banked floor $698.21) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$17,923/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$54,852	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,961/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$17,923/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
8.3 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
8.3 mo to earn back $148,800

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $704.01 (probe: $745C 14d) brings only $3,394/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,271

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$704.01 → $698.21

⚠ ASSIGNMENT recorded: 12x $750C 20260731 on 2026-08-03. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 65 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 18 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $779.57 (+3%) · daily UBB $773.10 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 11 contracts at $769 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 87%, breach 13%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($8,961/mo); it brings $9,130/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 12 × $766/3d for $18,960/mo, but breach risk rises to 23% (+9pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $771/3d (91% survival, $6,120/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 11 contracts realizes $50,275 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 18 Sep 2026 (3d) · sell 11 × $769, 87% survival, $9,130/mo (E[net] $344/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	18 Sep 2026 · 3d	11 × $769	87%	$9,130	$344
NEXT FRIDAY	25 Sep 2026 · 10d	12 × $768	71%	$9,108	$-2,173

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $913 with probability 73%; on the 27% touch you roll, paying $3,323 to close and taking $974 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,349) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 18 Sep 2026 · 3d · E[net] $344/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 11 × $769 (50% normal), 87% survival, breach 13%, $9,130/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $771 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 91% (breach 13% → 9%) for $3,010/mo less (33% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

SPY spot $759.87 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $780

25 Sep

10d

2.6%

91%hist 96%

18%hist 14%

$396

$1,188

-$7,942

Sell 12 × $780 2.6% OTM over spot $759.87 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.34 mid)

= $396 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,188/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $780)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $780.34)

91%

EV / mo

+$36

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

17%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,047

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$788 @ 74% POP

66% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.41/sh now → $4.54 mid-life (likely $3.92–$6.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 516 simulated challenges: the $780 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $783 (overshoots $3.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$780	28 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.40/sh	+$477 cycle +$873 [+$340…+$1,205] · 98% credit	65% surv 50%	+$75,895 SAFE cap gain +$21,043
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$780	28 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$391 cycle +$787 [+$225…+$1,114] · 94% credit	65% surv 51%	+$75,940 SAFE cap gain +$21,088
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$783	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.48/sh	+$572 cycle +$968 [+$121…+$1,301] · 82% credit	69% surv 58%	+$79,126 SAFE cap gain +$24,274
Max even-money escape in the band	~$788	9 Oct 2026	19d left	+$0.07/sh	+$87 cycle +$483 [-$713…+$845] · 48% credit	74% surv 66%	+$83,652 SAFE cap gain +$28,800

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,188/mo
vs 50% target ($8,961/mo)	-87%
vs normal income ($17,923/mo)	7% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,188/mo

Downside budget

✓ $780 is at/above CC-SS $704.01: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$54,846

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $780.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $780)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $773.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $772.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $772-780.34	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $780.34	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$780.00 (1.4σ)	$396	$75,418	+$20,566	+$14,664
+2.5%	$799.50 (2.7σ)	$-23,004	$71,557	+$16,705	+$14,664
+5%	$819.00 (4.0σ)	$-46,404	$67,696	+$12,844	+$14,664

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $704.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $54,852

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $780): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $54,852 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $59,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,932, the opportunity cost of earning $1,188/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

12 × $771

18 Sep

1.5%

91%hist 96%

17%hist 14%

$612

$6,120

-$3,010

Sell 12 × $771 1.5% OTM over spot $759.87 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.52 mid)

= $612 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,120/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $771)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $771.51)

92%

EV / mo

+$4,143

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

19%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,023

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$787 @ 82% POP

79% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.28/sh now → $3.03 mid-life (likely $3.09–$5.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 579 simulated challenges: the $771 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $774 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$771	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.86/sh	+$1,027 cycle +$1,639 [+$557…+$1,362] · 92% credit	65% surv 50%	+$67,643 SAFE cap gain +$12,791
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$771	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.78/sh	+$941 cycle +$1,553 [+$443…+$1,264] · 90% credit	65% surv 51%	+$67,688 SAFE cap gain +$12,836
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$772	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.27/sh	+$326 cycle +$938 [-$325…+$598] · 55% credit	67% surv 55%	+$68,075 SAFE cap gain +$13,223
Max even-money escape in the band	~$785	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.21/sh	+$256 cycle +$868 [-$1,378…+$471] · 39% credit	80% surv 75%	+$81,031 SAFE cap gain +$26,179
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$787	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.36/sh	-$435 cycle +$177 [-$2,231…-$258] · 15% credit	82% surv 79%	+$82,344 SAFE cap gain +$27,492
budget: banked $612 debit $435 (71% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$177 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,364/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,120/mo
vs 50% target ($8,961/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($17,923/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,120/mo

Downside budget

✓ $771 is at/above CC-SS $704.01: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$54,846

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $771.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $771)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $773.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $763.29	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $763-771.51	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $771.51	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$771.00 (1.4σ)	$612	$66,616	+$11,764	+$4,080
+2.5%	$790.27 (3.7σ)	$-22,518	$62,800	+$7,948	+$4,080
+5%	$809.55 (6.1σ)	$-45,648	$58,983	+$4,131	+$4,080

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $704.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $54,852

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $771): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $54,852 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $59,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,932, the opportunity cost of earning $6,120/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

11 × $769

18 Sep

1.2%

87%hist 86%

26%hist 26%

$913

$9,130

—

Sell 11 × $769 1.2% OTM over spot $759.87 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.83 mid)

= $913 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,130/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $769)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $769.84)

89%

EV / mo

+$5,703

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,410

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$787 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.27/sh now → $3.02 mid-life (likely $3.24–$5.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 808 simulated challenges: the $769 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $773 (overshoots $3.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$769	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.89/sh	+$974 cycle +$1,887 [+$499…+$1,240] · 91% credit	65% surv 50%	+$65,799 SAFE cap gain +$10,947
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$769	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.81/sh	+$896 cycle +$1,809 [+$398…+$1,153] · 88% credit	65% surv 51%	+$65,837 SAFE cap gain +$10,985
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$770	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.30/sh	+$332 cycle +$1,245 [-$330…+$530] · 55% credit	67% surv 55%	+$66,175 SAFE cap gain +$11,323
Max even-money escape in the band	~$783	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.27/sh	+$296 cycle +$1,209 [-$1,358…+$379] · 35% credit	80% surv 75%	+$77,865 SAFE cap gain +$23,013
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$787	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.82/sh	-$897 cycle +$16 [-$2,834…-$906] · 4% credit	84% surv 81%	+$80,280 SAFE cap gain +$25,428
budget: banked $913 debit $897 (98% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$16 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $3,308/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,130/mo
vs 50% target ($8,961/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($17,923/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,363/mo

Downside budget

✓ $769 is at/above CC-SS $704.01: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$50,275

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $769.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $769)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $773.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $761.31	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $761-769.84	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $769.84	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$769.00 (1.1σ)	$913	$64,824	+$9,972	+$1,892
+2.5%	$788.22 (3.5σ)	$-20,234	$61,018	+$6,166	+$1,892
+5%	$807.45 (5.8σ)	$-41,382	$57,211	+$2,359	+$1,892

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $704.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $54,852

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $769): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$411

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,263 (+$411 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $59,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,521, the opportunity cost of earning $9,130/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

12 × $766

18 Sep

0.8%

77%hist 84%

45%hist 39%

$1,896

$18,960

+$9,830

Sell 12 × $766 0.8% OTM over spot $759.87 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $1.58 mid)

= $1,896 credit for the 3d cycle → $18,960/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $766)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $767.59)

83%

EV / mo

+$10,268

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

39%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,715

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$788 @ 88% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $4.26/sh now → $3.01 mid-life (likely $3.59–$6.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,167 simulated challenges: the $766 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $770 (overshoots $3.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$766	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.93/sh	+$1,116 cycle +$3,012 [+$465…+$1,277] · 90% credit	65% surv 50%	+$64,006 SAFE cap gain +$9,154
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$766	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.86/sh	+$1,030 cycle +$2,926 [+$339…+$1,173] · 87% credit	65% surv 51%	+$64,051 SAFE cap gain +$9,199
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$767	21 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.35/sh	+$415 cycle +$2,311 [-$504…+$440] · 46% credit	67% surv 55%	+$64,437 SAFE cap gain +$9,585
Max even-money escape in the band	~$781	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$54 cycle +$1,950 [-$2,363…-$322] · 20% credit	81% surv 77%	+$78,104 SAFE cap gain +$23,252
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$788	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$1.54/sh	-$1,850 cycle +$46 [-$4,955…-$2,399]	88% surv 86%	+$83,214 SAFE cap gain +$28,362
budget: banked $1,896 debit $1,850 (98% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,401/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$18,960/mo
vs 50% target ($8,961/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($17,923/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$18,960/mo

Downside budget

✓ $766 is at/above CC-SS $704.01: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$54,846

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.58 collected) or spot ≥ $767.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $766)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $773.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $758.34	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $758-767.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $767.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$766.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,896	$62,890	+$8,038	-$636
+2.5%	$785.15 (3.1σ)	$-21,084	$59,099	+$4,247	-$636
+5%	$804.30 (5.4σ)	$-44,064	$55,307	+$455	-$636

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $704.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $54,852

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $766): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $54,852 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $59,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,932, the opportunity cost of earning $18,960/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 25 Sep 2026 · 10d · E[net] $-2,173/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $768 (50% normal), 71% survival, breach 29%, $9,108/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $771 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 78% (breach 29% → 22%) for $3,168/mo less (35% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

SPY spot $759.87 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $780

25 Sep

10d

2.6%

91%hist 96%

18%hist 14%

$396

$1,188

-$7,920

Sell 12 × $780 2.6% OTM over spot $759.87 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.34 mid)

= $396 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,188/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $780)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $780.34)

91%

EV / mo

+$36

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

17%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,047

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$788 @ 74% POP

66% survival

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$780	28 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.40/sh	+$477 cycle +$873 [+$340…+$1,205] · 98% credit	65% surv 50%	+$75,895 SAFE cap gain +$21,043
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$780	28 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$391 cycle +$787 [+$225…+$1,114] · 94% credit	65% surv 51%	+$75,940 SAFE cap gain +$21,088
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$783	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.48/sh	+$572 cycle +$968 [+$121…+$1,301] · 82% credit	69% surv 58%	+$79,126 SAFE cap gain +$24,274
Max even-money escape in the band	~$788	9 Oct 2026	19d left	+$0.07/sh	+$87 cycle +$483 [-$713…+$845] · 48% credit	74% surv 66%	+$83,652 SAFE cap gain +$28,800

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,188/mo
vs 50% target ($8,961/mo)	-87%
vs normal income ($17,923/mo)	7% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,188/mo

Downside budget

✓ $780 is at/above CC-SS $704.01: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$54,846

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $772.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $772-780.34	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $780.34	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$780.00 (1.4σ)	$396	$75,418	+$20,566	+$14,664
+2.5%	$799.50 (2.7σ)	$-23,004	$71,557	+$16,705	+$14,664
+5%	$819.00 (4.0σ)	$-46,404	$67,696	+$12,844	+$14,664

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $704.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $54,852

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $780): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $54,852 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $59,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,932, the opportunity cost of earning $1,188/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

12 × $771

25 Sep

10d

1.5%

78%hist 84%

45%hist 39%

$1,980

$5,940

-$3,168

Sell 12 × $771 1.5% OTM over spot $759.87 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.66 mid)

= $1,980 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,940/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $771)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $772.66)

81%

EV / mo

+$1,346

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

42%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,400

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$784 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $6.34/sh now → $4.48 mid-life (likely $4.94–$7.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,252 simulated challenges: the $771 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $774 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$771	28 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.59/sh	+$710 cycle +$2,690 [+$313…+$896] · 100% credit	65% surv 50%	+$68,694 SAFE cap gain +$13,842
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$771	28 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.52/sh	+$624 cycle +$2,604 [+$211…+$797] · 97% credit	65% surv 51%	+$68,739 SAFE cap gain +$13,887
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$774	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.70/sh	+$845 cycle +$2,825 [+$103…+$872] · 82% credit	69% surv 58%	+$71,965 SAFE cap gain +$17,113
Max even-money escape in the band	~$779	9 Oct 2026	19d left	+$0.35/sh	+$417 cycle +$2,397 [-$755…+$363] · 36% credit	74% surv 66%	+$76,547 SAFE cap gain +$21,695
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$784	9 Oct 2026	19d left	-$1.47/sh	-$1,763 cycle +$217 [-$3,389…-$1,992] · 6% credit	80% surv 75%	+$79,377 SAFE cap gain +$24,525
budget: banked $1,980 debit $1,763 (89% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$217 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $5,711/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,940/mo
vs 50% target ($8,961/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($17,923/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,940/mo

Downside budget

✓ $771 is at/above CC-SS $704.01: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$54,840

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $772.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $771)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $773.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $763.29	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $763-772.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $772.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$771.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,980	$67,984	+$13,132	+$5,448
+2.5%	$790.27 (2.0σ)	$-21,150	$64,168	+$9,316	+$5,448
+5%	$809.55 (3.3σ)	$-44,280	$60,351	+$5,499	+$5,448

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $704.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $54,852

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $771): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $54,852 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $59,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,932, the opportunity cost of earning $5,940/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

12 × $768

25 Sep

10d

1.1%

71%hist 84%

59%hist 44%

$3,036

$9,108

—

Sell 12 × $768 1.1% OTM over spot $759.87 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.54 mid)

= $3,036 credit for the 10d cycle → $9,108/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $768)

71%

Breach risk

29%

POP (stays ≤ $770.54)

76%

EV / mo

+$1,518

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

50%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,323

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$785 @ 84% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $6.32/sh now → $4.47 mid-life (likely $5.24–$7.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,512 simulated challenges: the $768 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $771 (overshoots $3.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$768	28 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.66/sh	+$787 cycle +$3,823 [+$336…+$804] · 100% credit	65% surv 50%	+$66,821 SAFE cap gain +$11,969
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$771	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.78/sh	+$934 cycle +$3,970 [+$128…+$811] · 84% credit	69% surv 58%	+$70,105 SAFE cap gain +$15,253
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$769	28 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.06/sh	+$72 cycle +$3,108 [-$501…+$4] · 25% credit	66% surv 54%	+$67,239 SAFE cap gain +$12,387
Max even-money escape in the band	~$777	9 Oct 2026	19d left	+$0.02/sh	+$23 cycle +$3,059 [-$1,394…-$287] · 18% credit	75% surv 67%	+$75,205 SAFE cap gain +$20,353
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$785	9 Oct 2026	19d left	-$2.47/sh	-$2,965 cycle +$71 [-$5,220…-$3,552]	84% surv 82%	+$80,233 SAFE cap gain +$25,381
budget: banked $3,036 debit $2,965 (98% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$71 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,780/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,108/mo
vs 50% target ($8,961/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($17,923/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,108/mo

Downside budget

✓ $768 is at/above CC-SS $704.01: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$54,840

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.63/sh (~25% of the $2.53 collected) or spot ≥ $770.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $768)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $773.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $760.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $760-770.54	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $770.54	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$768.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,036	$66,034	+$11,182	+$2,904
+2.5%	$787.20 (1.8σ)	$-20,004	$62,233	+$7,381	+$2,904
+5%	$806.40 (3.1σ)	$-43,044	$58,431	+$3,579	+$2,904

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $704.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $54,852

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $768): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $54,852 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $59,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,932, the opportunity cost of earning $9,108/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

12 × $762

25 Sep

10d

0.3%

56%hist 70%

90%hist 79%

$6,084

$18,252

+$9,144

Sell 12 × $762 0.3% OTM over spot $759.87 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $5.10 mid)

= $6,084 credit for the 10d cycle → $18,252/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $762)

56%

Breach risk

44%

POP (stays ≤ $767.10)

67%

EV / mo

+$1,587

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

74%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$767

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026)

$786 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $6.27/sh now → $4.43 mid-life (likely $6.01–$8.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,229 simulated challenges: the $762 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $765 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$762	28 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.78/sh	+$938 cycle +$7,022 [+$422…+$676] · 100% credit	65% surv 50%	+$64,008 SAFE cap gain +$9,156
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$765	2 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.93/sh	+$1,111 cycle +$7,195 [+$148…+$608] · 84% credit	69% surv 57%	+$67,318 SAFE cap gain +$12,466
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$763	28 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.19/sh	+$223 cycle +$6,307 [-$463…-$141] · 17% credit	66% surv 54%	+$64,426 SAFE cap gain +$9,574
Max even-money escape in the band	~$771	9 Oct 2026	19d left	+$0.19/sh	+$234 cycle +$6,318 [-$1,460…-$612] · 10% credit	75% surv 67%	+$72,452 SAFE cap gain +$17,600
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$786	9 Oct 2026	19d left	-$3.52/sh	-$4,224 cycle +$1,860 [-$7,604…-$5,679]	91% surv 90%	+$83,024 SAFE cap gain +$28,172
budget: banked $6,084 debit $4,224 (69% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,860 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,726/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$18,252/mo
vs 50% target ($8,961/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($17,923/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$18,252/mo

Downside budget

✓ $762 is at/above CC-SS $704.01: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$54,822

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.27/sh (~25% of the $5.07 collected) or spot ≥ $767.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $762)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $773.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $754.38	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $754-767.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $767.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$762.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$6,084	$63,070	+$8,218	+$1,152
+2.5%	$781.05 (1.4σ)	$-16,776	$59,298	+$4,446	-$1,248
+5%	$800.10 (2.7σ)	$-39,636	$55,526	+$674	-$1,248

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $704.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $54,852

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $762): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $54,852 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $59,784 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,932, the opportunity cost of earning $18,252/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (240 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (11 expiries scanned, 240 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.835 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $59,784

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$769	3d	18 Sep 2026	$0.83	11/12	$9,130	$10,363	87%	89%	+$5,703	-$0	0.0%	$56,176 (vs do-nothing $-3,608)
$768	3d	18 Sep 2026	$1.05	9/12	$9,450	$13,149	80%	82%	+$2,689	-$0	0.0%	$57,030 (vs do-nothing $-2,754)
$766	3d	18 Sep 2026	$1.58	6/12	$9,480	$16,878	77%	83%	+$5,134	-$0	0.0%	$58,266 (vs do-nothing $-1,518)
$767	3d	18 Sep 2026	$1.30	7/12	$9,100	$15,265	76%	80%	+$2,492	-$0	0.0%	$57,817 (vs do-nothing $-1,967)
$765	3d	18 Sep 2026	$1.90	5/12	$9,500	$18,131	74%	81%	+$4,838	-$0	0.0%	$58,679 (vs do-nothing $-1,105)
$767	6d	21 Sep 2026	$1.61	12/12	$9,660	$9,660	73%	78%	+$1,411	-$0	0.0%	$56,784 (vs do-nothing $-3,000)
$767	7d	22 Sep 2026	$1.86	12/12	$9,566	$9,566	72%	77%	+$1,344	-$0	0.0%	$57,084 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$767	8d	23 Sep 2026	$2.16	12/12	$9,720	$9,720	71%	76%	+$1,457	-$0	0.0%	$57,444 (vs do-nothing $-2,340)
$768	10d	25 Sep 2026	$2.53	12/12	$9,108	$9,108	71%	76%	+$1,518	-$0	0.0%	$57,888 (vs do-nothing $-1,896)
$766	6d	21 Sep 2026	$1.92	10/12	$9,600	$12,066	70%	75%	+$1,217	-$0	0.0%	$57,594 (vs do-nothing $-2,190)
$767	9d	24 Sep 2026	$2.48	11/12	$9,093	$10,326	70%	75%	+$1,522	-$0	0.0%	$57,991 (vs do-nothing $-1,793)
$764	3d	18 Sep 2026	$2.27	4/12	$9,080	$18,944	70%	78%	+$4,344	-$0	0.0%	$59,048 (vs do-nothing $-736)
$766	7d	22 Sep 2026	$2.18	10/12	$9,343	$11,809	69%	75%	+$1,358	-$0	0.0%	$57,854 (vs do-nothing $-1,930)

Show 227 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 227.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$767	10d	25 Sep 2026	$2.88	11/12	$9,504	$10,737	68%	74%	+$1,423	-$0	0.0%	$58,431 (vs do-nothing $-1,353)
$766	8d	23 Sep 2026	$2.50	10/12	$9,375	$11,841	68%	74%	+$1,448	-$0	0.0%	$58,174 (vs do-nothing $-1,610)
$767	13d	28 Sep 2026	$3.27	12/12	$9,055	$9,055	67%	74%	+$1,427	-$0	0.0%	$58,776 (vs do-nothing $-1,008)
$766	9d	24 Sep 2026	$2.84	10/12	$9,467	$11,933	67%	74%	+$1,621	-$0	0.0%	$58,514 (vs do-nothing $-1,270)
$765	6d	21 Sep 2026	$2.27	8/12	$9,080	$14,012	67%	73%	+$1,001	-$0	0.0%	$58,312 (vs do-nothing $-1,472)
$765	7d	22 Sep 2026	$2.54	9/12	$9,797	$13,496	66%	73%	+$1,470	-$0	0.0%	$58,371 (vs do-nothing $-1,413)
$768	17d	2 Oct 2026	$4.34	12/12	$9,191	$9,191	66%	74%	+$1,748	-$0	0.0%	$60,060 (vs do-nothing +$276)
$766	10d	25 Sep 2026	$3.26	10/12	$9,780	$12,246	66%	73%	+$1,319	-$0	0.0%	$58,934 (vs do-nothing $-850)
$767	15d	30 Sep 2026	$3.98	12/12	$9,552	$9,552	66%	73%	+$1,608	-$0	0.0%	$59,628 (vs do-nothing $-156)
$765	8d	23 Sep 2026	$2.87	9/12	$9,686	$13,385	65%	73%	+$1,514	-$0	0.0%	$58,668 (vs do-nothing $-1,116)
$763	3d	18 Sep 2026	$2.68	4/12	$10,720	$20,584	65%	76%	+$4,787	-$0	0.0%	$59,212 (vs do-nothing $-572)
$766	13d	28 Sep 2026	$3.67	11/12	$9,316	$10,549	65%	72%	+$1,339	-$0	0.0%	$59,300 (vs do-nothing $-484)
$765	9d	24 Sep 2026	$3.23	9/12	$9,690	$13,389	64%	73%	+$1,677	-$0	0.0%	$58,992 (vs do-nothing $-792)
$767	17d	2 Oct 2026	$4.76	11/12	$9,240	$10,473	64%	72%	+$1,650	-$0	0.0%	$60,499 (vs do-nothing +$715)
$768	24d	9 Oct 2026	$6.09	12/12	$9,135	$9,135	64%	73%	+$1,983	-$0	0.0%	$62,160 (vs do-nothing +$2,376)
$764	6d	21 Sep 2026	$2.65	7/12	$9,275	$15,440	64%	71%	+$881	-$0	0.0%	$58,762 (vs do-nothing $-1,022)
$766	15d	30 Sep 2026	$4.40	11/12	$9,680	$10,913	63%	72%	+$1,501	-$0	0.0%	$60,103 (vs do-nothing +$319)
$764	7d	22 Sep 2026	$2.93	8/12	$10,046	$14,978	63%	72%	+$1,516	-$0	0.0%	$58,840 (vs do-nothing $-944)
$765	10d	25 Sep 2026	$3.67	9/12	$9,909	$13,608	63%	71%	+$1,206	-$0	0.0%	$59,388 (vs do-nothing $-396)
$764	8d	23 Sep 2026	$3.28	8/12	$9,840	$14,772	62%	71%	+$1,559	-$0	0.0%	$59,120 (vs do-nothing $-664)
$765	13d	28 Sep 2026	$4.09	10/12	$9,438	$11,904	62%	71%	+$1,224	-$0	0.0%	$59,764 (vs do-nothing $-20)
$766	17d	2 Oct 2026	$5.20	10/12	$9,176	$11,642	62%	71%	+$1,531	-$0	0.0%	$60,874 (vs do-nothing +$1,090)
$767	24d	9 Oct 2026	$6.55	11/12	$9,006	$10,239	62%	72%	+$1,859	-$0	0.0%	$62,468 (vs do-nothing +$2,684)
$764	9d	24 Sep 2026	$3.65	8/12	$9,733	$14,665	62%	71%	+$1,684	-$0	0.0%	$59,416 (vs do-nothing $-368)
$765	14d	29 Sep 2026	$4.42	10/12	$9,471	$11,937	62%	71%	+$1,302	-$0	0.0%	$60,094 (vs do-nothing +$310)
$765	15d	30 Sep 2026	$4.85	10/12	$9,700	$12,166	61%	71%	+$1,392	-$0	0.0%	$60,524 (vs do-nothing +$740)
$764	10d	25 Sep 2026	$4.11	8/12	$9,864	$14,796	60%	70%	+$1,082	-$0	0.0%	$59,784 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$762	3d	18 Sep 2026	$3.12	3/12	$9,360	$20,457	60%	74%	+$3,858	-$0	0.0%	$59,487 (vs do-nothing $-297)
$766	24d	9 Oct 2026	$7.04	11/12	$9,680	$10,913	60%	71%	+$1,912	-$0	0.0%	$63,007 (vs do-nothing +$3,223)
$763	6d	21 Sep 2026	$3.06	6/12	$9,180	$16,578	60%	69%	+$703	-$0	0.0%	$59,154 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$765	17d	2 Oct 2026	$5.67	9/12	$9,005	$12,704	60%	70%	+$1,412	-$0	0.0%	$61,188 (vs do-nothing +$1,404)
$763	7d	22 Sep 2026	$3.38	7/12	$10,140	$16,305	60%	70%	+$1,586	-$0	0.0%	$59,273 (vs do-nothing $-511)
$764	13d	28 Sep 2026	$4.54	9/12	$9,429	$13,128	60%	70%	+$1,113	-$0	0.0%	$60,171 (vs do-nothing +$387)
$763	8d	23 Sep 2026	$3.73	7/12	$9,791	$15,956	60%	70%	+$1,569	-$0	0.0%	$59,518 (vs do-nothing $-266)
$763	9d	24 Sep 2026	$4.10	7/12	$9,567	$15,732	59%	70%	+$1,640	-$0	0.0%	$59,777 (vs do-nothing $-7)
$764	15d	30 Sep 2026	$5.31	9/12	$9,558	$13,257	59%	69%	+$1,245	-$0	0.0%	$60,864 (vs do-nothing +$1,080)
$765	24d	9 Oct 2026	$7.54	10/12	$9,425	$11,891	59%	70%	+$1,771	-$0	0.0%	$63,214 (vs do-nothing +$3,430)
$764	17d	2 Oct 2026	$6.15	9/12	$9,768	$13,467	58%	69%	+$1,422	-$0	0.0%	$61,620 (vs do-nothing +$1,836)
$763	10d	25 Sep 2026	$4.57	7/12	$9,597	$15,762	58%	68%	+$928	-$0	0.0%	$60,106 (vs do-nothing +$322)
$763	13d	28 Sep 2026	$5.02	8/12	$9,268	$14,200	58%	68%	+$993	-$0	0.0%	$60,512 (vs do-nothing +$728)
$764	24d	9 Oct 2026	$8.06	9/12	$9,068	$12,767	57%	69%	+$1,618	-$0	0.0%	$63,339 (vs do-nothing +$3,555)
$762	7d	22 Sep 2026	$3.83	6/12	$9,849	$17,247	57%	69%	+$1,489	-$0	0.0%	$59,616 (vs do-nothing $-168)
$762	6d	21 Sep 2026	$3.52	6/12	$10,560	$17,958	57%	68%	+$682	-$0	0.0%	$59,430 (vs do-nothing $-354)
$763	15d	30 Sep 2026	$5.80	8/12	$9,280	$14,212	57%	68%	+$1,101	-$0	0.0%	$61,136 (vs do-nothing +$1,352)
$762	8d	23 Sep 2026	$4.20	6/12	$9,450	$16,848	57%	69%	+$1,490	-$0	0.0%	$59,838 (vs do-nothing +$54)
$763	17d	2 Oct 2026	$6.67	8/12	$9,416	$14,348	56%	68%	+$1,290	-$0	0.0%	$61,832 (vs do-nothing +$2,048)
$762	9d	24 Sep 2026	$4.59	6/12	$9,180	$16,578	56%	69%	+$1,565	-$0	0.0%	$60,072 (vs do-nothing +$288)
$761	3d	18 Sep 2026	$3.61	3/12	$10,830	$21,927	56%	72%	+$4,111	-$0	0.0%	$59,634 (vs do-nothing $-150)
$763	24d	9 Oct 2026	$8.61	9/12	$9,686	$13,385	56%	68%	+$1,654	-$0	0.0%	$63,834 (vs do-nothing +$4,050)
$762	10d	25 Sep 2026	$5.07	6/12	$9,126	$16,524	56%	67%	+$793	-$0	0.0%	$60,360 (vs do-nothing +$576)
$762	13d	28 Sep 2026	$5.53	8/12	$10,209	$15,141	55%	67%	+$979	-$0	0.0%	$60,920 (vs do-nothing +$1,136)
$762	15d	30 Sep 2026	$6.32	8/12	$10,112	$15,044	55%	67%	+$1,095	-$0	0.0%	$61,552 (vs do-nothing +$1,768)
$762	17d	2 Oct 2026	$7.20	8/12	$10,165	$15,097	55%	67%	+$1,298	-$0	0.0%	$62,256 (vs do-nothing +$2,472)
$762	24d	9 Oct 2026	$9.16	8/12	$9,160	$14,092	54%	68%	+$1,492	-$0	0.0%	$63,824 (vs do-nothing +$4,040)
$761	7d	22 Sep 2026	$4.33	5/12	$9,279	$17,910	54%	67%	+$1,378	-$0	0.0%	$59,894 (vs do-nothing +$110)
$761	6d	21 Sep 2026	$4.02	5/12	$10,050	$18,681	54%	66%	+$547	-$0	0.0%	$59,739 (vs do-nothing $-45)
$761	8d	23 Sep 2026	$4.71	6/12	$10,598	$17,996	54%	67%	+$1,648	-$0	0.0%	$60,144 (vs do-nothing +$360)
$761	9d	24 Sep 2026	$5.10	6/12	$10,200	$17,598	54%	67%	+$1,699	-$0	0.0%	$60,378 (vs do-nothing +$594)
$761	10d	25 Sep 2026	$5.59	6/12	$10,062	$17,460	53%	66%	+$771	-$0	0.0%	$60,672 (vs do-nothing +$888)
$761	13d	28 Sep 2026	$6.06	7/12	$9,789	$15,954	53%	66%	+$828	-$0	0.0%	$61,149 (vs do-nothing +$1,365)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-15 21:51