FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $758.88

BE SS: $764.00  |  CC-SS: $703.64  |  12 contracts (1,200 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-09-16 21:50

SPY @ $758.88   UNDERWATER $5.12 (0.7% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh)  |  BE SS: $764.00  |  CC-SS: $703.64 (banked floor $697.84)  |  IV: LOW  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$148,800(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref$20,469/mo45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$54,192fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,234/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$20,469/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
7.3 mo to earn back $148,800
ML VELOCITY
7.3 mo to earn back $148,800
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $703.64 (probe: $744C 14d) still earns $10,054/mo (49% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$5,271
Hole (after banked)
$0
Cycles closed
15
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$703.64 → $697.84
⚠ ASSIGNMENT recorded: 12x $750C 20260731 on 2026-08-03. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 63 (live) · RSI 59 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 18 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $779.46 (+3%) · daily UBB $773.10 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $703.64 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 12 × $766 24 Sep 2026 (8d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $766)
70%
Touch odds
61%
Per cycle
$3,240
Income / mo
$12,150
🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $767 18 Sep 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $767)
82%
Touch odds
36%
Per cycle
$1,188
Income / mo
$17,820
🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $776 25 Sep 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $776)
90%
Touch odds
20%
Per cycle
$792
Income / mo
$2,640
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (260 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (11 expiries scanned, 260 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.840 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $59,508

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$7692d18 Sep 2026$0.6212/12$11,160$11,16087%89%+$5,575-$00.0%$54,936 (vs do-nothing $-4,572)
$7682d18 Sep 2026$0.789/12$10,530$13,85285%87%+$4,874-$00.0%$56,223 (vs do-nothing $-3,285)
$7672d18 Sep 2026$0.997/12$10,395$15,93282%85%+$4,459-$00.0%$57,100 (vs do-nothing $-2,408)
$7662d18 Sep 2026$1.236/12$11,070$17,71579%82%+$4,445-$00.0%$57,588 (vs do-nothing $-1,920)
$7652d18 Sep 2026$1.525/12$11,400$19,15275%80%+$4,217-$00.0%$58,053 (vs do-nothing $-1,455)
$7665d21 Sep 2026$1.6211/12$10,692$11,80075%79%+$3,065-$00.0%$56,417 (vs do-nothing $-3,091)
$7677d23 Sep 2026$2.0012/12$10,286$10,28674%79%+$3,053-$00.0%$56,592 (vs do-nothing $-2,916)
$7666d22 Sep 2026$1.9611/12$10,780$11,88873%78%+$2,939-$00.0%$56,791 (vs do-nothing $-2,717)
$7678d24 Sep 2026$2.3512/12$10,575$10,57573%78%+$3,102-$00.0%$57,012 (vs do-nothing $-2,496)
$7655d21 Sep 2026$1.949/12$10,476$13,79871%77%+$2,743-$00.0%$57,267 (vs do-nothing $-2,241)
$7667d23 Sep 2026$2.3411/12$11,031$12,13971%77%+$3,037-$00.0%$57,209 (vs do-nothing $-2,299)
$7679d25 Sep 2026$2.7412/12$10,960$10,96071%77%+$3,141-$00.0%$57,480 (vs do-nothing $-2,028)
$7642d18 Sep 2026$1.854/12$11,100$19,96071%78%+$3,796-$00.0%$58,476 (vs do-nothing $-1,032)
Show 247 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 247.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$7668d24 Sep 2026$2.7011/12$11,138$12,24570%76%+$2,913-$00.0%$57,605 (vs do-nothing $-1,903)
$7656d22 Sep 2026$2.319/12$10,395$13,71870%76%+$2,591-$00.0%$57,600 (vs do-nothing $-1,908)
$7669d25 Sep 2026$3.1210/12$10,400$12,61569%76%+$2,788-$00.0%$58,198 (vs do-nothing $-1,310)
$7657d23 Sep 2026$2.709/12$10,414$13,73768%75%+$2,610-$00.0%$57,951 (vs do-nothing $-1,557)
$7645d21 Sep 2026$2.308/12$11,040$15,47068%75%+$2,590-$00.0%$57,804 (vs do-nothing $-1,704)
$7632d18 Sep 2026$2.234/12$13,380$22,24067%75%+$4,218-$00.0%$58,628 (vs do-nothing $-880)
$7658d24 Sep 2026$3.099/12$10,429$13,75167%75%+$2,625-$00.0%$58,302 (vs do-nothing $-1,206)
$76613d29 Sep 2026$3.9212/12$10,855$10,85567%75%+$2,937-$00.0%$58,896 (vs do-nothing $-612)
$76612d28 Sep 2026$3.5612/12$10,680$10,68067%74%+$1,950-$00.0%$58,464 (vs do-nothing $-1,044)
$7646d22 Sep 2026$2.698/12$10,760$15,19067%74%+$2,439-$00.0%$58,116 (vs do-nothing $-1,392)
$76716d2 Oct 2026$4.6712/12$10,508$10,50867%75%+$2,926-$00.0%$59,796 (vs do-nothing +$288)
$7659d25 Sep 2026$3.539/12$10,590$13,91266%74%+$2,651-$00.0%$58,698 (vs do-nothing $-810)
$76614d30 Sep 2026$4.3012/12$11,057$11,05766%74%+$2,886-$00.0%$59,352 (vs do-nothing $-156)
$7647d23 Sep 2026$3.108/12$10,629$15,05965%74%+$2,436-$00.0%$58,444 (vs do-nothing $-1,064)
$76616d2 Oct 2026$5.1111/12$10,539$11,64764%73%+$2,783-$00.0%$60,256 (vs do-nothing +$748)
$7635d21 Sep 2026$2.707/12$11,340$16,87864%73%+$2,401-$00.0%$58,297 (vs do-nothing $-1,211)
$76512d28 Sep 2026$3.9811/12$10,945$12,05264%73%+$2,060-$00.0%$59,013 (vs do-nothing $-495)
$7648d24 Sep 2026$3.508/12$10,500$14,93064%73%+$2,422-$00.0%$58,764 (vs do-nothing $-744)
$76513d29 Sep 2026$4.3511/12$11,042$12,15064%73%+$2,802-$00.0%$59,420 (vs do-nothing $-88)
$76514d30 Sep 2026$4.7511/12$11,196$12,30464%73%+$2,760-$00.0%$59,860 (vs do-nothing +$352)
$7649d25 Sep 2026$3.968/12$10,560$14,99063%73%+$2,446-$00.0%$59,132 (vs do-nothing $-376)
$7636d22 Sep 2026$3.097/12$10,815$16,35263%72%+$2,175-$00.0%$58,570 (vs do-nothing $-938)
$7622d18 Sep 2026$2.653/12$11,925$21,89263%73%+$3,404-$00.0%$58,974 (vs do-nothing $-534)
$76516d2 Oct 2026$5.5810/12$10,462$12,67862%72%+$2,626-$00.0%$60,658 (vs do-nothing +$1,150)
$7637d23 Sep 2026$3.547/12$10,620$16,15862%72%+$2,236-$00.0%$58,885 (vs do-nothing $-623)
$76623d9 Oct 2026$6.9512/12$10,878$10,87862%73%+$2,964-$00.0%$62,532 (vs do-nothing +$3,024)
$76412d28 Sep 2026$4.4310/12$11,075$13,29062%72%+$2,134-$00.0%$59,508 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$76413d29 Sep 2026$4.8110/12$11,100$13,31562%72%+$2,644-$00.0%$59,888 (vs do-nothing +$380)
$7638d24 Sep 2026$3.957/12$10,369$15,90662%72%+$2,205-$00.0%$59,172 (vs do-nothing $-336)
$76414d30 Sep 2026$5.2210/12$11,186$13,40161%72%+$2,593-$00.0%$60,298 (vs do-nothing +$790)
$7625d21 Sep 2026$3.136/12$11,268$17,91361%71%+$2,118-$00.0%$58,728 (vs do-nothing $-780)
$7639d25 Sep 2026$4.437/12$10,337$15,87461%71%+$2,231-$00.0%$59,508 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$76523d9 Oct 2026$7.4511/12$10,689$11,79761%72%+$2,790-$00.0%$62,830 (vs do-nothing +$3,322)
$76416d2 Oct 2026$6.079/12$10,243$13,56660%71%+$2,436-$00.0%$60,984 (vs do-nothing +$1,476)
$7626d22 Sep 2026$3.546/12$10,620$17,26560%70%+$1,923-$00.0%$58,974 (vs do-nothing $-534)
$76312d28 Sep 2026$4.919/12$11,048$14,37060%71%+$2,165-$00.0%$59,940 (vs do-nothing +$432)
$76313d29 Sep 2026$5.309/12$11,008$14,33060%71%+$2,465-$00.0%$60,291 (vs do-nothing +$783)
$7627d23 Sep 2026$4.016/12$10,311$16,95659%70%+$1,984-$00.0%$59,256 (vs do-nothing $-252)
$7628d24 Sep 2026$4.447/12$11,655$17,19259%71%+$2,951-$00.0%$59,515 (vs do-nothing +$7)
$76314d30 Sep 2026$5.729/12$11,031$14,35459%71%+$2,411-$00.0%$60,669 (vs do-nothing +$1,161)
$7612d18 Sep 2026$3.113/12$13,995$23,96259%71%+$3,601-$00.0%$59,112 (vs do-nothing $-396)
$76423d9 Oct 2026$7.9810/12$10,409$12,62459%71%+$2,611-$00.0%$63,058 (vs do-nothing +$3,550)
$76316d2 Oct 2026$6.599/12$11,121$14,44358%70%+$2,513-$00.0%$61,452 (vs do-nothing +$1,944)
$7629d25 Sep 2026$4.927/12$11,480$17,01858%70%+$2,290-$00.0%$59,851 (vs do-nothing +$343)
$76212d28 Sep 2026$5.428/12$10,840$15,27058%70%+$2,150-$00.0%$60,300 (vs do-nothing +$792)
$7615d21 Sep 2026$3.615/12$10,830$18,58257%69%+$1,834-$00.0%$59,098 (vs do-nothing $-410)
$76213d29 Sep 2026$5.828/12$10,745$15,17557%70%+$2,265-$00.0%$60,620 (vs do-nothing +$1,112)
$76323d9 Oct 2026$8.5210/12$11,113$13,32857%70%+$2,670-$00.0%$63,598 (vs do-nothing +$4,090)
$76214d30 Sep 2026$6.248/12$10,697$15,12757%69%+$2,198-$00.0%$60,956 (vs do-nothing +$1,448)
$7616d22 Sep 2026$4.036/12$12,090$18,73557%69%+$1,980-$00.0%$59,268 (vs do-nothing $-240)
$76216d2 Oct 2026$7.138/12$10,695$15,12557%69%+$2,293-$00.0%$61,668 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$7617d23 Sep 2026$4.516/12$11,597$18,24256%69%+$2,032-$00.0%$59,556 (vs do-nothing +$48)
$7619d25 Sep 2026$5.456/12$10,900$17,54556%70%+$2,887-$00.0%$60,120 (vs do-nothing +$612)
$7618d24 Sep 2026$4.956/12$11,138$17,78256%69%+$2,017-$00.0%$59,820 (vs do-nothing +$312)
$76223d9 Oct 2026$9.099/12$10,671$13,99356%69%+$2,469-$00.0%$63,702 (vs do-nothing +$4,194)
$76112d28 Sep 2026$5.957/12$10,412$15,95055%69%+$2,066-$00.0%$60,572 (vs do-nothing +$1,064)
$76113d29 Sep 2026$6.367/12$10,274$15,81155%69%+$2,029-$00.0%$60,859 (vs do-nothing +$1,351)
$76114d30 Sep 2026$6.798/12$11,640$16,07055%68%+$2,257-$00.0%$61,396 (vs do-nothing +$1,888)
$7602d18 Sep 2026$3.632/12$10,890$21,96555%69%+$2,571-$00.0%$59,348 (vs do-nothing $-160)
$76116d2 Oct 2026$7.698/12$11,535$15,96555%68%+$2,360-$00.0%$62,116 (vs do-nothing +$2,608)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-09-16 21:50