FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $761.02

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $704.25 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $761.02 UNDERWATER $2.98 (0.4% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $704.25 (banked floor $698.45) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$16,766/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$55,722	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,383/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$16,766/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
8.9 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
8.9 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $704.25 (probe: $750C 14d) still earns $4,346/mo (26% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,271

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$704.25 → $698.45

⚠ ASSIGNMENT recorded: 12x $750C 20260731 on 2026-08-03. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 67 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 33 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $779.69 (+2%) · daily UBB $773.60 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $704.25 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $769 30 Sep 2026 (13d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $769)

70%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$3,420

Income / mo

$7,892

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 6 of 13); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.68/sh now → $4.72 mid-life (likely $5.42–$7.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,588 simulated challenges: the $769 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 13, at $772 (overshoots $2.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$769	1 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.25/sh	+$298 cycle +$3,718 [+$224…+$458] · 100% credit	66% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$772	9 Oct 2026	16d left	+$1.43/sh	+$1,717 cycle +$5,137 [+$1,042…+$1,603] · 100% credit	69% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$774	9 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.44/sh	+$524 cycle +$3,944 [-$329…+$323] · 44% credit	71% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$783	9 Oct 2026	16d left	-$2.74/sh	-$3,292 cycle +$128 [-$5,137…-$3,818]	82% surv 79%
budget: banked $3,420 debit $3,292 (96% used ≈ 1.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$128 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,455/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $771 25 Sep 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $771)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$1,500

Income / mo

$5,625

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.24/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $3.80–$5.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,054 simulated challenges: the $771 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $774 (overshoots $2.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$771	28 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.67/sh	+$806 cycle +$2,306 [+$505…+$1,166] · 100% credit	65% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$772	28 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.14/sh	+$166 cycle +$1,666 [-$245…+$370] · 47% credit	67% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$780	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.22/sh	+$264 cycle +$1,764 [-$781…+$444] · 37% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$784	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.11/sh	-$1,334 cycle +$166 [-$2,733…-$1,291] · 6% credit	81% surv 77%
budget: banked $1,500 debit $1,334 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$166 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $5,185/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $777 28 Sep 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $777)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$660

Income / mo

$1,800

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$777	29 Sep 2026	6d left	+$0.08/sh	+$93 cycle +$753 [+$54…+$428] · 86% credit	66% surv 50%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$784	9 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.17/sh	+$202 cycle +$862 [-$444…+$709] · 49% credit	74% surv 66%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$785	9 Oct 2026	16d left	-$0.24/sh	-$292 cycle +$368 [-$1,017…+$212] · 29% credit	76% surv 68%
budget: banked $660 debit $292 (44% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$368 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $8,729/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (230 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (11 expiries scanned, 230 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.844 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $60,642

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$766	4d	21 Sep 2026	$0.99	12/12	$8,910	$8,910	74%	78%	+$828	-$0	0.0%	$56,910 (vs do-nothing $-3,732)
$768	7d	24 Sep 2026	$1.65	12/12	$8,486	$8,486	73%	78%	+$1,801	-$0	0.0%	$57,702 (vs do-nothing $-2,940)
$768	8d	25 Sep 2026	$2.06	11/12	$8,498	$9,616	72%	77%	+$1,975	-$0	0.0%	$58,398 (vs do-nothing $-2,244)
$767	6d	23 Sep 2026	$1.51	12/12	$9,060	$9,060	71%	76%	+$466	-$0	0.0%	$57,534 (vs do-nothing $-3,108)
$766	5d	22 Sep 2026	$1.41	10/12	$8,460	$10,696	71%	76%	+$1,030	-$0	0.0%	$57,952 (vs do-nothing $-2,690)
$767	7d	24 Sep 2026	$1.94	11/12	$9,146	$10,264	70%	76%	+$1,664	-$0	0.0%	$58,266 (vs do-nothing $-2,376)
$765	4d	21 Sep 2026	$1.25	9/12	$8,438	$11,792	69%	74%	+$435	-$0	0.0%	$58,077 (vs do-nothing $-2,565)
$768	12d	29 Sep 2026	$2.82	12/12	$8,460	$8,460	69%	75%	+$1,863	-$0	0.0%	$59,106 (vs do-nothing $-1,536)
$767	8d	25 Sep 2026	$2.39	10/12	$8,962	$11,199	69%	75%	+$1,865	-$0	0.0%	$58,932 (vs do-nothing $-1,710)
$769	15d	2 Oct 2026	$3.62	12/12	$8,688	$8,688	68%	75%	+$2,116	-$0	0.0%	$60,066 (vs do-nothing $-576)
$766	6d	23 Sep 2026	$1.81	10/12	$9,050	$11,286	68%	74%	+$519	-$0	0.0%	$58,352 (vs do-nothing $-2,290)
$768	13d	30 Sep 2026	$3.21	12/12	$8,889	$8,889	68%	75%	+$1,970	-$0	0.0%	$59,574 (vs do-nothing $-1,068)
$767	11d	28 Sep 2026	$2.82	11/12	$8,460	$9,578	67%	74%	+$1,621	-$0	0.0%	$59,234 (vs do-nothing $-1,408)

Show 217 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 217.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$766	7d	24 Sep 2026	$2.29	9/12	$8,833	$12,187	67%	74%	+$1,445	-$0	0.0%	$59,013 (vs do-nothing $-1,629)
$765	5d	22 Sep 2026	$1.72	9/12	$9,288	$12,643	67%	73%	+$843	-$0	0.0%	$58,500 (vs do-nothing $-2,142)
$767	12d	29 Sep 2026	$3.20	11/12	$8,800	$9,918	66%	74%	+$1,794	-$0	0.0%	$59,652 (vs do-nothing $-990)
$768	15d	2 Oct 2026	$4.01	11/12	$8,822	$9,940	66%	74%	+$2,009	-$0	0.0%	$60,543 (vs do-nothing $-99)
$766	8d	25 Sep 2026	$2.76	9/12	$9,315	$12,670	66%	73%	+$1,742	-$0	0.0%	$59,436 (vs do-nothing $-1,206)
$767	13d	30 Sep 2026	$3.60	11/12	$9,138	$10,257	65%	73%	+$1,865	-$0	0.0%	$60,092 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$769	22d	9 Oct 2026	$5.36	12/12	$8,771	$8,771	65%	74%	+$2,282	-$0	0.0%	$62,154 (vs do-nothing +$1,512)
$765	6d	23 Sep 2026	$2.16	8/12	$8,640	$13,113	65%	72%	+$571	-$0	0.0%	$59,090 (vs do-nothing $-1,552)
$764	4d	21 Sep 2026	$1.57	8/12	$9,420	$13,893	64%	71%	+$197	-$0	0.0%	$58,618 (vs do-nothing $-2,024)
$766	11d	28 Sep 2026	$3.22	10/12	$8,782	$11,018	64%	72%	+$1,552	-$0	0.0%	$59,762 (vs do-nothing $-880)
$767	15d	2 Oct 2026	$4.43	10/12	$8,860	$11,096	64%	73%	+$1,889	-$0	0.0%	$60,972 (vs do-nothing +$330)
$765	7d	24 Sep 2026	$2.67	8/12	$9,154	$13,627	64%	72%	+$1,314	-$0	0.0%	$59,498 (vs do-nothing $-1,144)
$766	12d	29 Sep 2026	$3.61	10/12	$9,025	$11,261	64%	72%	+$1,698	-$0	0.0%	$60,152 (vs do-nothing $-490)
$768	22d	9 Oct 2026	$5.81	11/12	$8,715	$9,833	63%	73%	+$2,163	-$0	0.0%	$62,523 (vs do-nothing +$1,881)
$766	13d	30 Sep 2026	$4.02	10/12	$9,277	$11,513	63%	72%	+$1,741	-$0	0.0%	$60,562 (vs do-nothing $-80)
$764	5d	22 Sep 2026	$2.08	7/12	$8,736	$14,327	63%	71%	+$578	-$0	0.0%	$59,228 (vs do-nothing $-1,414)
$765	8d	25 Sep 2026	$3.18	8/12	$9,540	$14,013	63%	71%	+$1,633	-$0	0.0%	$59,906 (vs do-nothing $-736)
$765	11d	28 Sep 2026	$3.65	9/12	$8,959	$12,314	61%	71%	+$1,448	-$0	0.0%	$60,237 (vs do-nothing $-405)
$766	15d	2 Oct 2026	$4.88	9/12	$8,784	$12,139	61%	71%	+$1,756	-$0	0.0%	$61,344 (vs do-nothing +$702)
$767	22d	9 Oct 2026	$6.28	10/12	$8,564	$10,800	61%	72%	+$2,025	-$0	0.0%	$62,822 (vs do-nothing +$2,180)
$764	6d	23 Sep 2026	$2.55	7/12	$8,925	$14,516	61%	70%	+$638	-$0	0.0%	$59,557 (vs do-nothing $-1,085)
$765	12d	29 Sep 2026	$4.01	9/12	$9,022	$12,377	61%	70%	+$1,283	-$0	0.0%	$60,561 (vs do-nothing $-81)
$764	7d	24 Sep 2026	$3.09	7/12	$9,270	$14,861	60%	70%	+$1,163	-$0	0.0%	$59,935 (vs do-nothing $-707)
$765	13d	30 Sep 2026	$4.48	9/12	$9,305	$12,659	60%	70%	+$1,624	-$0	0.0%	$60,984 (vs do-nothing +$342)
$765	14d	1 Oct 2026	$4.83	9/12	$9,315	$12,670	60%	71%	+$1,913	-$0	0.0%	$61,299 (vs do-nothing +$657)
$763	4d	21 Sep 2026	$1.93	6/12	$8,685	$15,394	60%	68%	+$63	-$0	0.0%	$59,340 (vs do-nothing $-1,302)
$766	22d	9 Oct 2026	$6.77	10/12	$9,232	$11,468	59%	71%	+$2,078	-$0	0.0%	$63,312 (vs do-nothing +$2,670)
$764	8d	25 Sep 2026	$3.61	7/12	$9,476	$15,067	59%	70%	+$1,420	-$0	0.0%	$60,299 (vs do-nothing $-343)
$765	15d	2 Oct 2026	$5.36	8/12	$8,576	$13,049	59%	70%	+$1,610	-$0	0.0%	$61,650 (vs do-nothing +$1,008)
$764	11d	28 Sep 2026	$4.10	8/12	$8,945	$13,418	59%	69%	+$1,294	-$0	0.0%	$60,642 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$763	5d	22 Sep 2026	$2.49	6/12	$8,964	$15,673	58%	68%	+$415	-$0	0.0%	$59,676 (vs do-nothing $-966)
$764	12d	29 Sep 2026	$4.47	8/12	$8,940	$13,413	58%	69%	+$1,278	-$0	0.0%	$60,938 (vs do-nothing +$296)
$764	13d	30 Sep 2026	$4.96	8/12	$9,157	$13,630	58%	69%	+$1,473	-$0	0.0%	$61,330 (vs do-nothing +$688)
$765	22d	9 Oct 2026	$7.28	9/12	$8,935	$12,289	58%	70%	+$1,911	-$0	0.0%	$63,504 (vs do-nothing +$2,862)
$763	6d	23 Sep 2026	$2.98	6/12	$8,940	$15,649	58%	68%	+$663	-$0	0.0%	$59,970 (vs do-nothing $-672)
$764	15d	2 Oct 2026	$5.86	8/12	$9,376	$13,849	57%	69%	+$1,642	-$0	0.0%	$62,050 (vs do-nothing +$1,408)
$763	7d	24 Sep 2026	$3.55	6/12	$9,129	$15,838	57%	68%	+$998	-$0	0.0%	$60,312 (vs do-nothing $-330)
$763	8d	25 Sep 2026	$4.10	6/12	$9,225	$15,934	56%	68%	+$1,250	-$0	0.0%	$60,642 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$764	22d	9 Oct 2026	$7.82	8/12	$8,531	$13,004	56%	69%	+$1,742	-$0	0.0%	$63,618 (vs do-nothing +$2,976)
$763	11d	28 Sep 2026	$4.60	7/12	$8,782	$14,373	56%	68%	+$1,161	-$0	0.0%	$60,992 (vs do-nothing +$350)
$763	12d	29 Sep 2026	$4.97	7/12	$8,698	$14,288	56%	68%	+$1,257	-$0	0.0%	$61,251 (vs do-nothing +$609)
$763	13d	30 Sep 2026	$5.47	7/12	$8,836	$14,427	55%	68%	+$1,312	-$0	0.0%	$61,601 (vs do-nothing +$959)
$762	4d	21 Sep 2026	$2.35	5/12	$8,812	$16,640	55%	66%	$-85	-$0	0.0%	$59,767 (vs do-nothing $-875)
$763	15d	2 Oct 2026	$6.38	7/12	$8,932	$14,523	55%	68%	+$1,452	-$0	0.0%	$62,238 (vs do-nothing +$1,596)
$762	5d	22 Sep 2026	$2.94	5/12	$8,820	$16,647	54%	66%	+$239	-$0	0.0%	$60,062 (vs do-nothing $-580)
$763	22d	9 Oct 2026	$8.37	8/12	$9,131	$13,604	54%	68%	+$1,774	-$0	0.0%	$64,058 (vs do-nothing +$3,416)
$762	6d	23 Sep 2026	$3.46	5/12	$8,650	$16,477	54%	66%	+$668	-$0	0.0%	$60,322 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$762	7d	24 Sep 2026	$4.04	5/12	$8,657	$16,484	54%	66%	+$802	-$0	0.0%	$60,612 (vs do-nothing $-30)
$762	8d	25 Sep 2026	$4.61	5/12	$8,644	$16,471	53%	67%	+$1,029	-$0	0.0%	$60,897 (vs do-nothing +$255)
$762	11d	28 Sep 2026	$5.12	7/12	$9,775	$15,365	53%	66%	+$1,157	-$0	0.0%	$61,356 (vs do-nothing +$714)
$762	12d	29 Sep 2026	$5.50	7/12	$9,625	$15,216	53%	67%	+$1,394	-$0	0.0%	$61,622 (vs do-nothing +$980)
$762	13d	30 Sep 2026	$6.01	7/12	$9,708	$15,299	53%	67%	+$1,331	-$0	0.0%	$61,979 (vs do-nothing +$1,337)
$762	15d	2 Oct 2026	$6.95	7/12	$9,730	$15,321	53%	67%	+$1,517	-$0	0.0%	$62,637 (vs do-nothing +$1,995)
$762	22d	9 Oct 2026	$8.95	7/12	$8,543	$14,134	52%	67%	+$1,588	-$0	0.0%	$64,037 (vs do-nothing +$3,395)
$761	22d	9 Oct 2026	$9.54	7/12	$9,106	$14,697	51%	66%	+$1,608	-$0	0.0%	$64,450 (vs do-nothing +$3,808)
$761	15d	2 Oct 2026	$7.52	6/12	$9,024	$15,733	50%	66%	+$1,319	-$0	0.0%	$62,694 (vs do-nothing +$2,052)
$761	13d	30 Sep 2026	$6.58	6/12	$9,111	$15,820	50%	66%	+$1,172	-$0	0.0%	$62,130 (vs do-nothing +$1,488)
$761	12d	29 Sep 2026	$6.06	6/12	$9,090	$15,799	50%	66%	+$1,312	-$0	0.0%	$61,818 (vs do-nothing +$1,176)
$761	11d	28 Sep 2026	$5.69	6/12	$9,311	$16,020	50%	65%	+$1,034	-$0	0.0%	$61,596 (vs do-nothing +$954)
$761	8d	25 Sep 2026	$5.17	5/12	$9,694	$17,521	50%	65%	+$1,035	-$0	0.0%	$61,177 (vs do-nothing +$535)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-17 21:49