FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $763.36

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $702.66 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $763.36 UNDERWATER $0.64 (0.1% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $702.66 (banked floor $696.03) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$20,083/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$59,592	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,041/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$20,083/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $702.66 (probe: $750C 14d) still earns $11,186/mo (56% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,995

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$702.66 → $696.03

⚠ ASSIGNMENT recorded: 12x $750C 20260731 on 2026-08-03. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.

? 5 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 68 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 49 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $781.28 (+2%) · daily UBB $774.69 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $702.66 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $775 23 Oct 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $775)

70%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$6,348

Income / mo

$8,656

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $771 5 Oct 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $771)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,392

Income / mo

$10,440

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.37/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $3.39–$5.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 899 simulated challenges: the $771 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $774 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$771	6 Oct 2026	3d left	+$0.64/sh	+$772 cycle +$2,164 [+$519…+$742] · 98% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$778	15 Oct 2026	12d left	+$1.39/sh	+$1,669 cycle +$3,061 [+$457…+$1,658] · 84% credit	75% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$772	6 Oct 2026	3d left	+$0.28/sh	+$336 cycle +$1,728 [-$55…+$285] · 70% credit	68% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$787	23 Oct 2026	20d left	+$0.19/sh	+$233 cycle +$1,625 [-$1,696…+$108] · 29% credit	82% surv 77%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$792	23 Oct 2026	20d left	-$1.05/sh	-$1,265 cycle +$127 [-$3,608…-$1,467] · 3% credit	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $1,392 debit $1,265 (91% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$127 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,669/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $784 14 Oct 2026 (13d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $784)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,152

Income / mo

$2,658

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 6 of 13); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.65/sh now → $6.12 mid-life (likely $5.32–$8.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 678 simulated challenges: the $784 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 13, at $787 (overshoots $3.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$785	16 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$163 cycle +$1,315 [-$92…+$559] · 67% credit	69% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$789	23 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.12/sh	+$140 cycle +$1,292 [-$449…+$1,025] · 56% credit	73% surv 61%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$784	15 Oct 2026	8d left	-$0.20/sh	-$244 cycle +$908 [-$398…+$170] · 39% credit	67% surv 50%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$791	23 Oct 2026	16d left	-$0.85/sh	-$1,014 cycle +$138 [-$1,809…-$268] · 20% credit	75% surv 65%
budget: banked $1,152 debit $1,014 (88% used ≈ 1.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$138 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $11,857/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (247 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (11 expiries scanned, 247 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.856 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $67,872

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$771	4d	5 Oct 2026	$1.16	12/12	$10,440	$10,440	81%	84%	+$4,852	-$0	0.0%	$60,984 (vs do-nothing $-6,888)
$772	6d	7 Oct 2026	$1.71	12/12	$10,260	$10,260	78%	82%	+$4,383	-$0	0.0%	$61,644 (vs do-nothing $-6,228)
$771	5d	6 Oct 2026	$1.58	11/12	$10,428	$12,310	77%	82%	+$4,438	-$0	0.0%	$62,020 (vs do-nothing $-5,852)
$770	4d	5 Oct 2026	$1.44	10/12	$10,800	$14,564	77%	82%	+$4,662	-$0	0.0%	$62,412 (vs do-nothing $-5,460)
$773	8d	9 Oct 2026	$2.32	12/12	$10,440	$10,440	76%	81%	+$4,549	-$0	0.0%	$62,376 (vs do-nothing $-5,496)
$772	7d	8 Oct 2026	$2.11	12/12	$10,851	$10,851	76%	81%	+$4,640	-$0	0.0%	$62,124 (vs do-nothing $-5,748)
$771	6d	7 Oct 2026	$2.01	10/12	$10,050	$13,814	75%	80%	+$3,996	-$0	0.0%	$62,982 (vs do-nothing $-4,890)
$770	5d	6 Oct 2026	$1.89	9/12	$10,206	$15,851	74%	80%	+$4,022	-$0	0.0%	$63,363 (vs do-nothing $-4,509)
$772	8d	9 Oct 2026	$2.64	11/12	$10,890	$12,772	74%	80%	+$4,429	-$0	0.0%	$63,186 (vs do-nothing $-4,686)
$769	4d	5 Oct 2026	$1.74	8/12	$10,440	$17,967	73%	79%	+$4,083	-$0	0.0%	$63,744 (vs do-nothing $-4,128)
$771	7d	8 Oct 2026	$2.44	10/12	$10,457	$14,221	73%	79%	+$3,830	-$0	0.0%	$63,412 (vs do-nothing $-4,460)
$772	11d	12 Oct 2026	$3.08	12/12	$10,080	$10,080	72%	79%	+$3,887	-$0	0.0%	$63,288 (vs do-nothing $-4,584)
$770	6d	7 Oct 2026	$2.35	9/12	$10,575	$16,220	72%	78%	+$3,922	-$0	0.0%	$63,777 (vs do-nothing $-4,095)

Show 234 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 234.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$773	13d	14 Oct 2026	$3.63	12/12	$10,052	$10,052	72%	78%	+$3,920	-$0	0.0%	$63,948 (vs do-nothing $-3,924)
$771	8d	9 Oct 2026	$3.01	9/12	$10,159	$15,804	71%	78%	+$4,066	-$0	0.0%	$64,371 (vs do-nothing $-3,501)
$772	12d	13 Oct 2026	$3.43	12/12	$10,290	$10,290	71%	78%	+$3,811	-$0	0.0%	$63,708 (vs do-nothing $-4,164)
$769	5d	6 Oct 2026	$2.24	8/12	$10,752	$18,279	71%	78%	+$3,920	-$0	0.0%	$64,144 (vs do-nothing $-3,728)
$770	7d	8 Oct 2026	$2.81	9/12	$10,839	$16,484	70%	77%	+$3,897	-$0	0.0%	$64,191 (vs do-nothing $-3,681)
$771	11d	12 Oct 2026	$3.46	11/12	$10,380	$12,262	70%	77%	+$3,787	-$0	0.0%	$64,088 (vs do-nothing $-3,784)
$773	15d	16 Oct 2026	$4.43	12/12	$10,632	$10,632	70%	77%	+$3,881	-$0	0.0%	$64,908 (vs do-nothing $-2,964)
$772	13d	14 Oct 2026	$4.02	11/12	$10,205	$12,086	70%	77%	+$3,818	-$0	0.0%	$64,704 (vs do-nothing $-3,168)
$768	4d	5 Oct 2026	$2.10	7/12	$11,025	$20,434	69%	77%	+$3,972	-$0	0.0%	$64,512 (vs do-nothing $-3,360)
$769	6d	7 Oct 2026	$2.72	8/12	$10,880	$18,407	69%	76%	+$3,743	-$0	0.0%	$64,528 (vs do-nothing $-3,344)
$770	8d	9 Oct 2026	$3.40	8/12	$10,200	$17,727	68%	76%	+$3,690	-$0	0.0%	$65,072 (vs do-nothing $-2,800)
$771	12d	13 Oct 2026	$3.83	11/12	$10,532	$12,414	68%	76%	+$3,224	-$0	0.0%	$64,495 (vs do-nothing $-3,377)
$772	15d	16 Oct 2026	$4.84	11/12	$10,648	$12,530	68%	76%	+$3,713	-$0	0.0%	$65,606 (vs do-nothing $-2,266)
$769	7d	8 Oct 2026	$3.20	8/12	$10,971	$18,499	67%	76%	+$3,829	-$0	0.0%	$64,912 (vs do-nothing $-2,960)
$771	13d	14 Oct 2026	$4.43	10/12	$10,223	$13,987	67%	76%	+$3,596	-$0	0.0%	$65,402 (vs do-nothing $-2,470)
$768	5d	6 Oct 2026	$2.63	7/12	$11,046	$20,455	67%	76%	+$3,721	-$0	0.0%	$64,883 (vs do-nothing $-2,989)
$770	11d	12 Oct 2026	$3.86	10/12	$10,527	$14,291	67%	76%	+$3,610	-$0	0.0%	$64,832 (vs do-nothing $-3,040)
$773	22d	23 Oct 2026	$6.14	12/12	$10,047	$10,047	67%	76%	+$3,796	-$0	0.0%	$66,960 (vs do-nothing $-912)
$770	12d	13 Oct 2026	$4.24	10/12	$10,600	$14,364	66%	75%	+$3,520	-$0	0.0%	$65,212 (vs do-nothing $-2,660)
$769	8d	9 Oct 2026	$3.81	8/12	$11,430	$18,957	66%	75%	+$3,898	-$0	0.0%	$65,400 (vs do-nothing $-2,472)
$771	15d	16 Oct 2026	$5.27	10/12	$10,540	$14,304	66%	75%	+$3,517	-$0	0.0%	$66,242 (vs do-nothing $-1,630)
$768	6d	7 Oct 2026	$3.13	7/12	$10,955	$20,364	65%	75%	+$3,504	-$0	0.0%	$65,233 (vs do-nothing $-2,639)
$772	22d	23 Oct 2026	$6.59	12/12	$10,784	$10,784	65%	75%	+$4,020	-$0	0.0%	$67,500 (vs do-nothing $-372)
$767	4d	5 Oct 2026	$2.50	6/12	$11,250	$22,541	65%	75%	+$3,677	-$0	0.0%	$65,232 (vs do-nothing $-2,640)
$770	13d	14 Oct 2026	$4.86	9/12	$10,094	$15,739	65%	75%	+$3,508	-$0	0.0%	$66,036 (vs do-nothing $-1,836)
$769	11d	12 Oct 2026	$4.30	9/12	$10,555	$16,200	65%	74%	+$3,458	-$0	0.0%	$65,532 (vs do-nothing $-2,340)
$770	14d	15 Oct 2026	$5.24	9/12	$10,106	$15,751	64%	74%	+$3,318	-$0	0.0%	$66,378 (vs do-nothing $-1,494)
$768	7d	8 Oct 2026	$3.63	7/12	$10,890	$20,299	64%	74%	+$3,586	-$0	0.0%	$65,583 (vs do-nothing $-2,289)
$769	12d	13 Oct 2026	$4.69	9/12	$10,553	$16,198	64%	74%	+$3,328	-$0	0.0%	$65,883 (vs do-nothing $-1,989)
$771	22d	23 Oct 2026	$7.06	11/12	$10,590	$12,472	64%	75%	+$3,892	-$0	0.0%	$68,048 (vs do-nothing +$176)
$770	15d	16 Oct 2026	$5.73	9/12	$10,314	$15,959	64%	74%	+$3,297	-$0	0.0%	$66,819 (vs do-nothing $-1,053)
$767	5d	6 Oct 2026	$3.05	6/12	$10,980	$22,271	64%	74%	+$3,389	-$0	0.0%	$65,562 (vs do-nothing $-2,310)
$768	8d	9 Oct 2026	$4.27	7/12	$11,209	$20,618	63%	74%	+$3,712	-$0	0.0%	$66,031 (vs do-nothing $-1,841)
$769	13d	14 Oct 2026	$5.32	9/12	$11,049	$16,695	63%	73%	+$3,547	-$0	0.0%	$66,450 (vs do-nothing $-1,422)
$767	6d	7 Oct 2026	$3.58	6/12	$10,740	$22,031	62%	73%	+$3,198	-$0	0.0%	$65,880 (vs do-nothing $-1,992)
$770	22d	23 Oct 2026	$7.55	10/12	$10,295	$14,059	62%	74%	+$3,728	-$0	0.0%	$68,522 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$768	11d	12 Oct 2026	$4.77	8/12	$10,407	$17,935	62%	73%	+$3,231	-$0	0.0%	$66,168 (vs do-nothing $-1,704)
$769	15d	16 Oct 2026	$6.21	9/12	$11,178	$16,823	62%	73%	+$3,411	-$0	0.0%	$67,251 (vs do-nothing $-621)
$767	7d	8 Oct 2026	$4.09	6/12	$10,517	$21,808	62%	73%	+$3,452	-$0	0.0%	$66,186 (vs do-nothing $-1,686)
$768	12d	13 Oct 2026	$5.16	8/12	$10,320	$17,847	61%	72%	+$3,025	-$0	0.0%	$66,480 (vs do-nothing $-1,392)
$766	4d	5 Oct 2026	$2.94	5/12	$11,025	$24,198	61%	72%	+$3,275	-$0	0.0%	$65,892 (vs do-nothing $-1,980)
$768	13d	14 Oct 2026	$5.80	8/12	$10,708	$18,235	61%	73%	+$3,568	-$0	0.0%	$66,992 (vs do-nothing $-880)
$769	22d	23 Oct 2026	$8.06	10/12	$10,991	$14,755	60%	73%	+$3,918	-$0	0.0%	$69,032 (vs do-nothing +$1,160)
$767	8d	9 Oct 2026	$4.76	6/12	$10,710	$22,001	60%	72%	+$3,216	-$0	0.0%	$66,588 (vs do-nothing $-1,284)
$766	5d	6 Oct 2026	$3.52	5/12	$10,560	$23,733	60%	72%	+$3,006	-$0	0.0%	$66,182 (vs do-nothing $-1,690)
$768	15d	16 Oct 2026	$6.71	8/12	$10,736	$18,263	60%	72%	+$3,127	-$0	0.0%	$67,720 (vs do-nothing $-152)
$767	11d	12 Oct 2026	$5.26	7/12	$10,042	$19,451	59%	72%	+$2,883	-$0	0.0%	$66,724 (vs do-nothing $-1,148)
$767	12d	13 Oct 2026	$5.66	8/12	$11,320	$18,847	59%	71%	+$3,177	-$0	0.0%	$66,880 (vs do-nothing $-992)
$766	6d	7 Oct 2026	$4.06	5/12	$10,150	$23,323	59%	71%	+$2,800	-$0	0.0%	$66,452 (vs do-nothing $-1,420)
$768	22d	23 Oct 2026	$8.59	9/12	$10,542	$16,188	59%	72%	+$3,699	-$0	0.0%	$69,393 (vs do-nothing +$1,521)
$767	13d	14 Oct 2026	$6.31	7/12	$10,193	$19,602	58%	71%	+$2,858	-$0	0.0%	$67,459 (vs do-nothing $-413)
$766	7d	8 Oct 2026	$4.58	6/12	$11,777	$23,068	58%	71%	+$3,367	-$0	0.0%	$66,480 (vs do-nothing $-1,392)
$767	15d	16 Oct 2026	$7.23	7/12	$10,122	$19,531	58%	71%	+$2,833	-$0	0.0%	$68,103 (vs do-nothing +$231)
$766	8d	9 Oct 2026	$5.27	6/12	$11,858	$23,148	58%	71%	+$3,431	-$0	0.0%	$66,894 (vs do-nothing $-978)
$765	4d	5 Oct 2026	$3.42	4/12	$10,260	$25,315	57%	70%	+$2,761	-$0	0.0%	$66,480 (vs do-nothing $-1,392)
$766	11d	12 Oct 2026	$5.79	7/12	$11,054	$20,463	57%	70%	+$3,047	-$0	0.0%	$67,095 (vs do-nothing $-777)
$767	22d	23 Oct 2026	$9.14	9/12	$11,217	$16,863	57%	72%	+$3,871	-$0	0.0%	$69,888 (vs do-nothing +$2,016)
$766	12d	13 Oct 2026	$6.20	7/12	$10,850	$20,259	57%	70%	+$2,920	-$0	0.0%	$67,382 (vs do-nothing $-490)
$765	5d	6 Oct 2026	$4.02	5/12	$12,060	$25,233	56%	70%	+$3,142	-$0	0.0%	$66,432 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$766	13d	14 Oct 2026	$6.85	7/12	$11,065	$20,474	56%	70%	+$2,992	-$0	0.0%	$67,837 (vs do-nothing $-35)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-01 21:47