FORTRESS FIGHT: TE @ $8.71

SS: $9.70 | 30 contracts (3,000 sh) | 2026-06-12 23:21 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

TE @ $8.71 UNDERWATER $0.99 (10.2% below SS)

30 contracts (3,000 sh) | SS: $9.70 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: U10001299

LC: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $5.085/sh)

SP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $5.705/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$28,142	(ND $-0.62 + SW $10) x 3000
Normal income ref	$2,228/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-900	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,114/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL TARGET
$2,228/mo (95% ROI on ML)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
12.6 mo to earn back $28,142

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 80 (live) · RSI 58 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 38 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $10.00 (+15%) · daily UBB $12.42 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK

Sell 23 × $12 18 Jun 2026 (6d, $0.10 bid / $0.12 mid)

POP (stays ≤ $11.62)

90%

Assignment risk

11%

EV / cycle

+$87

EV / mo

+$436

Gross FIGHT income	$1,150/mo
vs 50% target ($1,114/mo)	+3%
vs normal target ($2,228/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,125/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($0)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($28,142)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-748
… cuts bleed by	-$0/mo

✓ Smallest cap give-up among candidates that hit the 50% income floor with POP ≥ 60%, EV ≥ $0/mo, Survival ≥ 50%. IV 175% (strike).

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~11% · flat exit -$1,058 net · free roll-up ≈ +$1/wk

Challenge odds

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,058

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 2 Jul 2026)

$14 @ 77%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $11.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $11.38	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $11-11.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $11.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$11.50 (1.7σ)	$230	$6,847	+$7,747	+$3,335
+2.5%	$11.79 (1.9σ)	$-431	$6,857	+$7,757	+$3,335
+5%	$12.08 (2.0σ)	$-1,093	$6,866	+$7,766	+$3,335

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (23 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$12	26 Jun 2026	11d left	+$0.49/sh	+$1,134 cycle +$1,364	67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$13	26 Jun 2026	11d left	+$0.03/sh	+$58 cycle +$288	72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$14	10 Jul 2026	25d left	+$0.13/sh	+$290 cycle +$520	74%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$14	2 Jul 2026	17d left	-$0.01/sh	-$28 cycle +$202	77%
budget: banked $230 debit $28 (12% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$202 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $2,223/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-FIGHT · clears SS ✓

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($12) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 90% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 7 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 23 calls lose. Re-arm capacity: a challenge enriches the 7 free contracts; near-ATM FIGHT premium at the challenged spot ≈ $287/ct/mo (up to $2,011/mo), at the price of fresh cap give-up on a continued rally. Re-run the tool to re-size.

🎚 Scale up — contracts dial at $12 18 Jun 2026 · up to 30 ct = $1,500/mo income, -$0 cap · POP flat at 90%

POP stays 90% at every row; contract count never buys POP. Income, EV and cap give-up scale linearly.

Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC	EV/mo
23/30	$1,150	$2,125	-$0	0.0%	+$436
24/30	$1,200	$2,036	-$0	0.0%	+$455
26/30	$1,300	$1,857	-$0	0.0%	+$492
27/30	$1,350	$1,768	-$0	0.0%	+$511
29/30	$1,450	$1,589	-$0	0.0%	+$549
30/30	$1,500	$1,500	-$0	0.0%	+$568

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 23 contracts at $12 / 6d. Of every trade that clears the 50% income floor ($1,114/mo) with POP ≥ 60% and positive variance edge, this one mortgages the least recovery: $0 (0.0% of IC) if the stock V-bounces to SS.

Downside anchor: primary risks 0.0% of IC on a full V-bounce to SS, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. Surgical close on the 23 contracts realizes $-748 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $9.70 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-900

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,003

− CC assignment net of premium (23 × $12): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (7 × $10): +$455

Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,418 (+$3,318 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,453 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,035, the opportunity cost of earning $1,150/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 30 eligible), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear the 50% income floor. Sorted by cap give-up (ascending). Primary 🎯 and frontier ◆ rows below; everything they dominate is in the collapsible pane.

Fortress delta: 1.011 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,003 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,453

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	POP (mid)	Survival	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
🎯 $12	6d	18 Jun 2026	$0.10	23/30	$1,150	$2,125	90%	89%	+$436	-$0	0.0%	$2,648 (vs do-nothing $-805)

Show 29 dominated candidates (for each one, a frontier row above is cheaper on cap AND equal-or-better on POP; unlikely sells)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	POP (mid)	Survival	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$11	6d	18 Jun 2026	$0.10	23/30	$1,150	$2,125	87%	85%	+$68	-$0	0.0%	$2,648 (vs do-nothing $-805)
$12	14d	26 Jun 2026	$0.30	18/30	$1,157	$2,829	84%	81%	+$393	-$0	0.0%	$3,183 (vs do-nothing $-270)
$10	6d	18 Jun 2026	$0.20	12/30	$1,200	$3,707	83%	81%	+$341	-$0	0.0%	$3,153 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$11	14d	26 Jun 2026	$0.35	15/30	$1,125	$3,214	81%	78%	+$304	-$0	0.0%	$3,303 (vs do-nothing $-150)
$12	20d	2 Jul 2026	$0.45	17/30	$1,148	$2,958	81%	78%	+$342	-$0	0.0%	$3,453 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$11	20d	2 Jul 2026	$0.50	15/30	$1,125	$3,214	79%	74%	+$247	-$0	0.0%	$3,528 (vs do-nothing +$75)
$10	6d	18 Jun 2026	$0.25	9/30	$1,125	$4,050	78%	74%	+$145	-$0	0.0%	$3,273 (vs do-nothing $-180)
$12	28d	10 Jul 2026	$0.55	19/30	$1,120	$2,652	78%	74%	+$149	-$0	0.0%	$3,643 (vs do-nothing +$190)
$10	14d	26 Jun 2026	$0.40	13/30	$1,114	$3,482	78%	73%	+$190	-$0	0.0%	$3,388 (vs do-nothing $-65)
$10	20d	2 Jul 2026	$0.60	13/30	$1,170	$3,538	76%	70%	+$229	-$0	0.0%	$3,648 (vs do-nothing +$195)
$11	28d	10 Jul 2026	$0.65	16/30	$1,114	$3,064	76%	71%	+$160	-$0	0.0%	$3,773 (vs do-nothing +$320)
$11	35d	17 Jul 2026	$0.80	17/30	$1,166	$2,976	75%	70%	+$270	-$0	0.0%	$4,048 (vs do-nothing +$595)
$11	42d	24 Jul 2026	$0.80	20/30	$1,143	$2,536	74%	68%	+$45	-$0	0.0%	$4,153 (vs do-nothing +$700)
$10	14d	26 Jun 2026	$0.50	11/30	$1,179	$3,825	74%	68%	+$158	-$0	0.0%	$3,508 (vs do-nothing +$55)
$10	6d	18 Jun 2026	$0.40	6/30	$1,200	$4,543	73%	66%	+$213	-$0	0.0%	$3,303 (vs do-nothing $-150)
$10	20d	2 Jul 2026	$0.75	10/30	$1,125	$3,911	73%	65%	+$227	-$0	0.0%	$3,753 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$10	14d	26 Jun 2026	$0.65	8/30	$1,114	$4,179	71%	62%	+$144	-$0	0.0%	$3,453 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$10	28d	10 Jul 2026	$0.90	12/30	$1,157	$3,664	71%	63%	+$169	-$0	0.0%	$3,993 (vs do-nothing +$540)
$10	42d	24 Jul 2026	$1.20	13/30	$1,114	$3,482	70%	61%	+$179	-$0	0.0%	$4,428 (vs do-nothing +$975)
$10	35d	17 Jul 2026	$1.05	13/30	$1,170	$3,538	70%	62%	+$180	-$0	0.0%	$4,233 (vs do-nothing +$780)
$10	20d	2 Jul 2026	$0.90	9/30	$1,215	$4,140	70%	60%	+$214	-$0	0.0%	$3,678 (vs do-nothing +$225)
$10	28d	10 Jul 2026	$0.95	11/30	$1,120	$3,766	70%	58%	+$49	-$0	0.0%	$3,783 (vs do-nothing +$330)
$10	42d	24 Jul 2026	$1.20	13/30	$1,114	$3,482	67%	57%	+$24	-$0	0.0%	$4,168 (vs do-nothing +$715)
$9	14d	26 Jun 2026	$0.90	6/30	$1,157	$4,500	67%	54%	+$210	-$0	0.0%	$3,303 (vs do-nothing $-150)
$9	20d	2 Jul 2026	$1.05	8/30	$1,260	$4,324	67%	54%	+$159	-$0	0.0%	$3,373 (vs do-nothing $-80)
$9	35d	17 Jul 2026	$1.40	10/30	$1,200	$3,986	66%	53%	+$191	-$0	0.0%	$3,703 (vs do-nothing +$250)
$9	28d	10 Jul 2026	$1.20	9/30	$1,157	$4,082	66%	53%	+$120	-$0	0.0%	$3,498 (vs do-nothing +$45)
$9	42d	24 Jul 2026	$1.35	12/30	$1,157	$3,664	65%	53%	+$21	-$0	0.0%	$3,693 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$9	6d	18 Jun 2026	$0.55	5/30	$1,375	$4,857	68%	56%	+$151	-$75	0.0%	$3,153 (vs do-nothing $-300)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 30 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v4.4 | 2026-06-12 23:21