25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $12.45 | CC-SS: $13.03 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $18,500 | (ND $2.40 + SW $5) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $1,765/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-15,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 18 × $6 | 85% | $900 | $-275 |
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 20 × $6 | 75% | $900 | $-136 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal | 12 × $6 | 24 Jul | 3d | 11.7% | 85% | 31% | +4pp | $60 | $600 | -$300 | $8,371 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $6 11.7% OTM over spot $5.37 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $60 credit for the 3d cycle → $600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $6) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $6.08) 88% EV / mo +$204 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 30% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $429/mo median; plan ~$292/mo after 68% keep · $3,242 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.5-5.7], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$311 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $7 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.33–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 559 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $6 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $6 is $7 below CC-SS $13.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $6.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,226 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $6): -$8,371 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $7.50): -$7,119 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,064 (+$1,736 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,264 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,800, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $8.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,736, position total $-12,890 (+$2,910 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $6 | 24 Jul | 3d | 11.7% | 85% | 21% | +5pp | $90 | $900 | — | $12,557 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $6 11.7% OTM over spot $5.37 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $90 credit for the 3d cycle → $900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $6) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $6.08) 88% EV / mo +$305 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 33% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $540/mo median; plan ~$367/mo after 68% keep · $3,792 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.2-5.5], measured ONLY among the 33% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$466 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $7 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.33–$0.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 634 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $6 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $6 is $7 below CC-SS $13.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $6.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,226 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $6): -$12,557 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $7.50): -$3,833 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,964 (+$836 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,264 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,700, the opportunity cost of earning $900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $8.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,104, position total $-13,790 (+$2,010 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $5.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 2.4% | 61% | 82% | +5pp | $180 | $1,800 | +$900 | $6,593 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $5.50 2.4% OTM over spot $5.37 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.25 mid) = $180 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $5.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $5.75) 74% EV / mo +$443 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 35% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~15.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $675/mo median; plan ~$459/mo after 68% keep · $4,872 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.9-4.9], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$75 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $8 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.40/sh now → $0.28 mid-life (likely $0.36–$0.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,673 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $6 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $5.50 is $8 below CC-SS $13.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $5.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,226 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $5.50): -$6,593 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $7.50): -$8,762 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,929 (+$1,871 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,264 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,665, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $8.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,367, position total $-12,755 (+$3,045 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 25 × $7.50 | 14 Aug | 24d | 39.7% | 90% | 21% | -1pp | $250 | $312 | -$587 | $13,565 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $7.50 39.7% OTM over spot $5.37 14 Aug 2026 (24d, $0.15 mid) = $250 credit for the 24d cycle → $312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $7.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $7.65) 91% EV / mo +$112 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 29% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $176/mo median; plan ~$120/mo after 68% keep · $1,359 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.1-5.1], measured ONLY among the 29% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,653 Free roll-up none Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $7.50 is $6 below CC-SS $13.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $7.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,226 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $7.50): -$13,565 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,139 (+$3,661 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,264 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$125, the opportunity cost of earning $312/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $8.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,825, position total $-10,965 (+$4,835 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 13 × $6 | 31 Jul | 10d | 11.7% | 75% | 52% | +2pp | $195 | $585 | -$315 | $8,939 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $6 11.7% OTM over spot $5.37 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.20 mid) = $195 credit for the 10d cycle → $585/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $6) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $6.20) 81% EV / mo +$86 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $337/mo median; plan ~$229/mo after 68% keep · $2,658 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$345 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $7 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,234 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $6 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $6 is $7 below CC-SS $13.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $6.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,226 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $6): -$8,939 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $7.50): -$6,571 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,084 (+$1,716 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,264 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,820, the opportunity cost of earning $585/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $8.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,834, position total $-12,910 (+$2,890 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $6 | 31 Jul | 10d | 11.7% | 75% | 42% | +2pp | $300 | $900 | — | $13,752 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $6 11.7% OTM over spot $5.37 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.20 mid) = $300 credit for the 10d cycle → $900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $6) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $6.20) 81% EV / mo +$133 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 26% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $404/mo median; plan ~$275/mo after 68% keep · $3,149 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.2 mo [2.4-5.7], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$530 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $7 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,248 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $6 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $6 is $7 below CC-SS $13.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $6.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,226 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $6): -$13,752 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $7.50): -$2,738 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,064 (+$736 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,264 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,800, the opportunity cost of earning $900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $8.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,360, position total $-13,890 (+$1,910 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $5.50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 2.4% | 59% | 89% | +5pp | $600 | $1,800 | +$900 | $14,452 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $5.50 2.4% OTM over spot $5.37 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.38 mid) = $600 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $5.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $5.88) 72% EV / mo +$110 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 29% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $522/mo median; plan ~$355/mo after 68% keep · $4,112 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [2.6-5.9], measured ONLY among the 29% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$161 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $7 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.54/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,146 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $6 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $5.50 is $8 below CC-SS $13.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $5.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,226 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $5.50): -$14,452 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $7.50): -$2,738 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,764 (+$36 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,264 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,500, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $8.33 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,060, position total $-14,590 (+$1,210 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$17,226 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,264
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.05 | 18/25 | $900 | $962 | 85% | 88% | +$305 | -$12,557 | 209.3% | $-14,964 (vs do-nothing $-2,700) |
| $6 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.15 | 20/25 | $900 | $944 | 75% | 81% | +$133 | -$13,752 | 229.2% | $-15,064 (vs do-nothing $-2,800) |
| $6 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.25 | 20/25 | $882 | $926 | 72% | 79% | +$161 | -$13,552 | 225.9% | $-14,864 (vs do-nothing $-2,600) |
| $6 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.35 | 21/25 | $919 | $954 | 70% | 78% | +$152 | -$14,020 | 233.7% | $-14,784 (vs do-nothing $-2,520) |
| $5.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 5/25 | $1,000 | $1,176 | 61% | 74% | +$246 | -$3,663 | 61.1% | $-13,189 (vs do-nothing $-925) |
| $5.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.50 | 15/25 | $938 | $1,026 | 59% | 72% | +$61 | -$10,539 | 175.7% | $-14,589 (vs do-nothing $-2,325) |
| $5.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 10/25 | $900 | $1,032 | 59% | 72% | +$55 | -$7,226 | 120.4% | $-14,014 (vs do-nothing $-1,750) |
| $5.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.40 | 13/25 | $918 | $1,024 | 59% | 72% | +$72 | -$9,264 | 154.4% | $-14,409 (vs do-nothing $-2,145) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.