25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $12.45 | CC-SS: $13.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $18,500 | (ND $2.40 + SW $5) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $1,705/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-16,437 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25x $8.5C 28 Aug 2026 | U18827291 | $0.19 | $480 | 2026-08-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 21 Aug 2026 · 4d | 23 × $6 | 82% | $862 | $650 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 28 Aug 2026 · 11d | 21 × $6 | 73% | $859 | $-377 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $7.50 | 4 Sep | 18d | 37.1% | 93%hist 97% | 15%hist 10% | +0pp | $125 | $208 | -$654 | $14,086 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $7.50 37.1% OTM over spot $5.47 4 Sep 2026 (18d, $0.10 mid) = $125 credit for the 18d cycle → $208/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $7.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $7.60) 94% EV / mo +$81 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 9% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $136/mo median; plan ~$93/mo after 68% keep · $1,198 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo, measured ONLY among the 9% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,494 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $8 @ 67% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.91/sh now → $0.65 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 304 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 18, at $8 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $7.50 is $6 below CC-SS $13.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $7.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $6.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.49 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,437 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,448 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $7.50): -$14,086 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,076 ($-4,639 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,076 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $208/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $7.72 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$425, position total $-14,109 (+$2,329 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $6 | 21 Aug | 4d | 9.6% | 82%hist 87% | 37%hist 30% | +3pp | $75 | $562 | -$300 | $10,702 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $6 9.6% OTM over spot $5.47 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.08 mid) = $75 credit for the 4d cycle → $562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $6) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $6.08) 85% EV / mo +$106 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 11% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $376/mo median; plan ~$256/mo after 68% keep · $3,292 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.0 mo, measured ONLY among the 11% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$233 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $7 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.29/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.22–$0.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 763 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $6 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $6 is $7 below CC-SS $13.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $6.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $6.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.49 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,437 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,448 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $6): -$10,702 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $7.50): -$5,635 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,326 ($-6,889 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,076 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,250, the opportunity cost of earning $562/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $7.72 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,505, position total $-16,359 (+$79 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 23 × $6 | 21 Aug | 4d | 9.6% | 82%hist 87% | 37%hist 30% | +3pp | $115 | $862 | — | $16,409 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $6 9.6% OTM over spot $5.47 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.08 mid) = $115 credit for the 4d cycle → $862/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $6) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $6.08) 85% EV / mo +$162 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 12% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $478/mo median; plan ~$325/mo after 68% keep · $4,130 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$358 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $7 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.29/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.21–$0.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 739 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $6 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $6 is $7 below CC-SS $13.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $6.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $6.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.49 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,437 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,448 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $6): -$16,409 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $7.50): -$1,127 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,526 ($-8,089 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,076 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,450, the opportunity cost of earning $862/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $7.72 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,841, position total $-17,559 ($-1,121 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 12 × $5.50 | 21 Aug | 4d | 0.5% | 54%hist 69% | 96%hist 89% | +4pp | $240 | $1,800 | +$938 | $8,981 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $5.50 0.5% OTM over spot $5.47 21 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.23 mid) = $240 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $5.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $5.72) 68% EV / mo +$157 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~20.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $625/mo median; plan ~$425/mo after 68% keep · $5,226 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$14 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $8 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.27/sh now → $0.19 mid-life (likely $0.26–$0.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,048 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $6 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $5.50 is $8 below CC-SS $13.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $5.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $6.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.49 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,437 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,448 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $5.50): -$8,981 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $7.50): -$7,325 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,296 ($-6,859 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,076 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,220, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $7.72 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,424, position total $-16,329 (+$109 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 21 × $6.50 | 28 Aug | 11d | 18.8% | 85%hist 87% | 31%hist 30% | +2pp | $210 | $573 | -$286 | $13,828 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $6.50 18.8% OTM over spot $5.47 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $0.12 mid) = $210 credit for the 11d cycle → $573/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $6.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $6.62) 87% EV / mo +$223 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $340/mo median; plan ~$231/mo after 68% keep · $2,943 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$703 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $7 @ 68% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 642 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $7 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $6.50 is $7 below CC-SS $13.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $6.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $6.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.49 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,437 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,448 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $6.50): -$13,828 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $7.50): -$2,254 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,071 ($-6,634 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,076 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,995, the opportunity cost of earning $573/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $7.72 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,352, position total $-16,104 (+$334 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $6 | 28 Aug | 11d | 9.6% | 73%hist 85% | 58%hist 44% | +2pp | $315 | $859 | — | $14,773 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $6 9.6% OTM over spot $5.47 28 Aug 2026 (11d, $0.20 mid) = $315 credit for the 11d cycle → $859/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $6) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $6.20) 79% EV / mo +$32 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 13% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $378/mo median; plan ~$257/mo after 68% keep · $3,169 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo, measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$527 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $6 @ 68% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,329 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $6 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $6 is $7 below CC-SS $13.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $6.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $6.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.49 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,437 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,448 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $6): -$14,773 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $7.50): -$2,254 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,016 ($-7,579 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,076 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,940, the opportunity cost of earning $859/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $7.72 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,297, position total $-17,049 ($-611 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.490 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,448 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-21,076
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.05 | 23/25 | $862 | $879 | 82% | 85% | +$162 | -$16,409 | 273.5% | $-24,526 (vs do-nothing $-3,450) |
| $6 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.15 | 21/25 | $859 | $892 | 73% | 79% | +$32 | -$14,773 | 246.2% | $-24,016 (vs do-nothing $-2,940) |
| $5.50 | 25d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.50 | 15/25 | $900 | $983 | 56% | 70% | +$44 | -$10,777 | 179.6% | $-23,401 (vs do-nothing $-2,325) |
| $5.50 | 18d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.30 | 18/25 | $900 | $958 | 55% | 69% | $-287 | -$13,292 | 221.5% | $-24,226 (vs do-nothing $-3,150) |
| $5.50 | 11d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.25 | 13/25 | $886 | $986 | 55% | 69% | $-235 | -$9,665 | 161.1% | $-23,416 (vs do-nothing $-2,340) |
| $5.50 | 4d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.20 | 6/25 | $900 | $1,058 | 54% | 68% | +$78 | -$4,491 | 74.8% | $-22,186 (vs do-nothing $-1,110) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.