FORTRESS FIGHT: UAMY @ $5.55

BE SS: $12.45 | CC-SS: $13.02 | 25 contracts (2,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

UAMY @ $5.55 UNDERWATER $6.90 (55.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS AHEAD

UAMY reports 2026-08-15 (Sat), in 25 days. Every expiry shown clears the event, but keep any CC or roll tenor inside 2026-08-15, a longer one would sell through earnings.

25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $12.45 | CC-SS: $13.02 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $10 exp 2026-11-20 (entry $5.187/sh)

SP: $12.50 exp 2026-11-20 (entry $4.170/sh)

HP: $7.50 exp 2026-11-20 (entry $1.401/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$18,500	(ND $2.40 + SW $5) x 2500
Normal income ref	$1,985/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-15,688	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$993/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$1,985/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $6,000

ML VELOCITY
9.3 mo to earn back $18,500

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $13.02 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $7.5C (17d, $221/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 7 (live) · RSI 41 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B 19 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $8.34 (+50%) · daily UBB $7.90 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-15: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 17 contracts at $6 / 10d. This is the safest strike (survival 69%, breach 31%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($993/mo); it brings $1,020/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 23 × $5.50/10d for $2,070/mo, but breach risk rises to 48% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 25 × $7/10d (90% survival, $375/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $11,594 (193% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $12, recoverable in 5.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 17 contracts realizes $-10,752 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · sell 17 × $6, 69% survival, $1,020/mo (E[net] $-161/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income − P(touch) × escape cost. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY	24 Jul 2026 · 3d	20 × $6	77%	$1,000	$-546
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 10d	17 × $6	69%	$1,020	$-161

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $-546/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 20 × $6 (primary), 77% survival, breach 23%, $1,000/mo.
This is already the safest rung on the ladder, take it.

UAMY spot $5.55 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

33% normal

14 × $6

24 Jul

8.1%

77%

48%

+2pp

$70

$700

-$300

$9,758

Sell 14 × $6 8.1% OTM over spot $5.55 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid)

= $70 credit for the 3d cycle → $700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $6)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $6.10)

81%

EV / mo

$-251

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

20% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~8.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$393/mo

median; plan ~$267/mo after 68% keep · $3,186 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.1 mo [3.1-6.4], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$272

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$6 @ 72% POP

66% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.24 mid-life (likely $0.27–$0.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 969 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $6 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (14 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$6	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.06/sh	+$86 cycle +$156 [-$135…+$80] · 46% credit	72% surv 66%	-$14,207 NOT cap gain +$1,480
SS $12 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$6	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.04/sh	+$52 cycle +$122 [-$123…+$55] · 38% credit	64% surv 53%	-$14,876 NOT cap gain +$811

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$700/mo
vs 50% target ($993/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($1,985/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$797/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $6 is $7 below CC-SS $13.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,758
… as % of IC ($6,000)	162.6%
… as % of ML ($18,500)	52.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.9 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)	$-8,855

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $6.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $5.94	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $6-6.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $6.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$6.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$70	$-14,928	+$760	+$0
+2.5%	$6.15 (1.1σ)	$-140	$-14,926	+$761	-$210
+5%	$6.30 (1.3σ)	$-350	$-14,925	+$762	-$420
SS (= V-bounce)	$12.45 (12.2σ)	$-8,960	$-20,308	-$4,621	-$2,100

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,688

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,533

− CC assignment net of premium (14 × $6): -$9,758

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $7.50): -$6,017

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,930 ($-5,242 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,100, the opportunity cost of earning $700/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $8.34 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,206, position total $-15,829 ($-141 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

20 × $6

24 Jul

8.1%

77%

32%

+4pp

$100

$1,000

—

$13,940

Sell 20 × $6 8.1% OTM over spot $5.55 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid)

= $100 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $6)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $6.10)

81%

EV / mo

$-358

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

24% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~8.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$473/mo

median; plan ~$322/mo after 68% keep · $3,669 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [2.9-6.0], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$388

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$6 @ 72% POP

66% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.24 mid-life (likely $0.28–$0.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 950 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $6 (overshoots $0.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$6	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.06/sh	+$123 cycle +$223 [-$227…+$111] · 44% credit	72% surv 66%	-$14,170 NOT cap gain +$1,517
SS $12 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$6	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.04/sh	+$74 cycle +$174 [-$202…+$76] · 37% credit	64% surv 53%	-$14,854 NOT cap gain +$833

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,000/mo
vs 50% target ($993/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($1,985/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,044/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $6 is $7 below CC-SS $13.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,940
… as % of IC ($6,000)	232.3%
… as % of ML ($18,500)	75.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.0 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-12,650

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $5.94	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $6-6.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $6.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$6.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$100	$-14,928	+$760	+$0
+2.5%	$6.15 (1.1σ)	$-200	$-15,016	+$671	-$300
+5%	$6.30 (1.3σ)	$-500	$-15,105	+$582	-$600
SS (= V-bounce)	$12.45 (12.2σ)	$-12,800	$-21,208	-$5,521	-$3,000

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,688

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,533

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $6): -$13,940

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $7.50): -$2,735

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,830 ($-6,142 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,000, the opportunity cost of earning $1,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $8.34 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,580, position total $-16,729 ($-1,041 vs today)

▸

100% normal

8 × $5.50

24 Jul

-0.9%

49%

99+%

$200

$2,000

+$1,000

$5,816

Sell 8 × $5.50 0.9% ITM over spot $5.55 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.30 mid)

= $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $5.50)

49%

Breach risk

51%

POP (stays ≤ $5.80)

67%

EV / mo

+$65

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$21

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$8 @ 93% POP

93% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.32/sh now → $0.22 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$6	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.04/sh	+$34 cycle +$234	64% surv 53%	-$15,369 NOT cap gain +$319
Max even-money escape in the band	~$6	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$40 cycle +$240	73% surv 68%	-$14,728 NOT cap gain +$960
SS $12 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$8	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.18/sh	-$145 cycle +$55	93% surv 93%	-$12,943 NOT cap gain +$2,744
budget: banked $200 debit $145 (73% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $46/mo while parked; 17 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,000/mo
vs 50% target ($993/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($1,985/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,150/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $5.50 is $8 below CC-SS $13.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,816
… as % of IC ($6,000)	96.9%
… as % of ML ($18,500)	31.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-5,060

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $5.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $5.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $5-5.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $5.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$5.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$200	$-15,402	+$285	+$160
+2.5%	$5.64 (≤1σ, normal week)	$90	$-15,389	+$298	+$50
+5%	$5.78 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-20	$-15,305	+$382	-$60
SS (= V-bounce)	$12.45 (12.2σ)	$-5,360	$-19,648	-$3,961	-$1,440

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,688

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,533

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $5.50): -$5,816

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (17 × $7.50): -$9,299

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,270 ($-4,582 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,440, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $8.34 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,072, position total $-15,169 (+$519 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on UAMY are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 10d · E[net] $-161/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 17 × $6 (primary), 69% survival, breach 31%, $1,020/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $6.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 31% → 18%) for $360/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $6.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect UAMY to stay flat-to-down near term.

UAMY spot $5.55 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

25 × $7

31 Jul

10d

26.1%

90%

20%

+1pp

$125

$375

-$645

$14,925

Sell 25 × $7 26.1% OTM over spot $5.55 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.08 mid)

= $125 credit for the 10d cycle → $375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $7.08)

91%

EV / mo

+$100

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

15% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$211/mo

median; plan ~$143/mo after 68% keep · $1,768 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.4-6.4], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,142

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$7 @ 67% POP

54% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 392 simulated challenges: the $7 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $7 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$7	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.00/sh	+$7 cycle +$132 [-$239…+$301] · 51% credit	65% surv 53%	-$13,581 NOT cap gain +$2,106
SS $12 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$7	7 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.06/sh	-$138 cycle -$13 [-$336…+$122] · 35% credit	67% surv 54%	-$13,656 NOT cap gain +$2,031

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$375/mo
vs 50% target ($993/mo)	-62%
vs normal income ($1,985/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$375/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7 is $6 below CC-SS $13.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,925
… as % of IC ($6,000)	248.8%
… as % of ML ($18,500)	80.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.5 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-15,750

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $7.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $7)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $6.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.00 (1.4σ)	$125	$-13,518	+$2,170	+$0
+2.5%	$7.17 (1.6σ)	$-312	$-13,709	+$1,979	-$437
+5%	$7.35 (1.7σ)	$-750	$-13,900	+$1,788	-$875
SS (= V-bounce)	$12.45 (6.7σ)	$-13,500	$-19,458	-$3,771	-$1,250

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,688

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,533

− CC assignment net of premium (25 × $7): -$14,925

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,080 ($-4,392 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,250, the opportunity cost of earning $375/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $8.34 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,225, position total $-14,979 (+$709 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

22 × $6.50

31 Jul

10d

17.1%

82%

38%

+2pp

$220

$660

-$360

$14,124

Sell 22 × $6.50 17.1% OTM over spot $5.55 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid)

= $220 credit for the 10d cycle → $660/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $6.50)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $6.62)

85%

EV / mo

+$98

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

14% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$325/mo

median; plan ~$221/mo after 68% keep · $2,811 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [4.0-6.9], measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$815

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$6 @ 67% POP

54% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 821 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $7 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (22 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$6	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.02/sh	+$44 cycle +$264 [-$245…+$145] · 38% credit	65% surv 54%	-$14,140 NOT cap gain +$1,548
SS $12 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$6	7 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.04/sh	-$80 cycle +$140 [-$318…+$12] · 25% credit	67% surv 54%	-$14,193 NOT cap gain +$1,495

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$660/mo
vs 50% target ($993/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($1,985/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$686/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $6.50 is $7 below CC-SS $13.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,124
… as % of IC ($6,000)	235.4%
… as % of ML ($18,500)	76.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.1 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)	$-13,860

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $6.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $6.43	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $6-6.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $6.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$6.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$220	$-14,113	+$1,574	+$110
+2.5%	$6.66 (1.1σ)	$-137	$-14,241	+$1,446	-$248
+5%	$6.83 (1.2σ)	$-495	$-14,370	+$1,318	-$605
SS (= V-bounce)	$12.45 (6.7σ)	$-12,870	$-20,298	-$4,611	-$2,090

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,688

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,533

− CC assignment net of premium (22 × $6.50): -$14,124

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $7.50): -$1,641

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,920 ($-5,232 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,090, the opportunity cost of earning $660/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $8.34 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,828, position total $-15,819 ($-131 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

17 × $6

31 Jul

10d

8.1%

69%

53%

+3pp

$340

$1,020

—

$11,594

Sell 17 × $6 8.1% OTM over spot $5.55 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.25 mid)

= $340 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,020/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $6)

69%

Breach risk

31%

POP (stays ≤ $6.25)

77%

EV / mo

+$66

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

22% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$426/mo

median; plan ~$290/mo after 68% keep · $3,513 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [3.3-6.5], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

53%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$398

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$6 @ 72% POP

66% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,599 simulated challenges: the $6 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $6 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (17 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$6	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.01/sh	+$17 cycle +$357 [-$195…-$40] · 19% credit	66% surv 52%	-$14,727 NOT cap gain +$961
SS $12 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$6	7 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.02/sh	-$33 cycle +$307 [-$254…-$96] · 12% credit	67% surv 54%	-$14,706 NOT cap gain +$981
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$6	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.16/sh	-$276 cycle +$64 [-$611…-$380] · 2% credit	72% surv 66%	-$14,315 NOT cap gain +$1,373
budget: banked $340 debit $276 (81% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$64 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $730/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,020/mo
vs 50% target ($993/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($1,985/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,091/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $6 is $7 below CC-SS $13.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,594
… as % of IC ($6,000)	193.2%
… as % of ML ($18,500)	62.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.8 mo
Surgical close (17 ct)	$-10,752

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $6.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $5.94	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $6-6.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $6.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$6.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$340	$-14,673	+$1,014	+$255
+2.5%	$6.15 (≤1σ, normal week)	$85	$-14,716	+$971	+$0
+5%	$6.30 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-170	$-14,760	+$928	-$255
SS (= V-bounce)	$12.45 (6.7σ)	$-10,625	$-20,504	-$4,816	-$2,295

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,688

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,533

− CC assignment net of premium (17 × $6): -$11,594

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $7.50): -$4,376

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,125 ($-5,437 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,295, the opportunity cost of earning $1,020/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $8.34 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,638, position total $-16,024 ($-336 vs today)

▸

100% normal

23 × $5.50

31 Jul

10d

-0.9%

52%

99+%

$690

$2,070

+$1,050

$16,606

Sell 23 × $5.50 0.9% ITM over spot $5.55 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.45 mid)

= $690 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,070/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $5.50)

52%

Breach risk

48%

POP (stays ≤ $5.95)

68%

EV / mo

$-532

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$226

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$6 @ 80% POP

78% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.40 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (23 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$6	7 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.01/sh	-$12 cycle +$678	67% surv 54%	-$15,000 NOT cap gain +$688
Max even-money escape in the band	~$6	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.00/sh	+$5 cycle +$695	67% surv 54%	-$14,982 NOT cap gain +$705
SS $12 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$6	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.29/sh	-$656 cycle +$34	80% surv 78%	-$14,304 NOT cap gain +$1,384
budget: banked $690 debit $656 (95% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $411/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,070/mo
vs 50% target ($993/mo)	+109%
vs normal income ($1,985/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,088/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $5.50 is $8 below CC-SS $13.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,606
… as % of IC ($6,000)	276.8%
… as % of ML ($18,500)	89.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.4 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-14,778

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $5.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $6)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $7.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $5.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $5-5.95	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $5.95	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.56 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$5.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$690	$-14,988	+$700	+$575
+2.5%	$5.64 (≤1σ, normal week)	$374	$-15,180	+$507	+$259
+5%	$5.78 (≤1σ, normal week)	$57	$-15,303	+$385	-$58
SS (= V-bounce)	$12.45 (6.7σ)	$-15,295	$-22,234	-$6,546	-$4,025

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,688

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,533

− CC assignment net of premium (23 × $5.50): -$16,606

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $7.50): -$1,094

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,855 ($-7,167 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,830 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,025, the opportunity cost of earning $2,070/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $8.34 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,842, position total $-17,754 ($-2,066 vs today)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (6 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.564 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,533 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-18,830

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$6	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.05	20/25	$1,000	$1,044	77%	81%	$-358	-$13,940	232.3%	$-21,830 (vs do-nothing $-3,000)
$6	10d	31 Jul 2026	$0.20	17/25	$1,020	$1,091	69%	77%	+$66	-$11,594	193.2%	$-21,125 (vs do-nothing $-2,295)
$5.50	24d	14 Aug 2026	$0.50	16/25	$1,000	$1,079	54%	70%	$-126	-$11,232	187.2%	$-21,310 (vs do-nothing $-2,480)
$5.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$0.50	12/25	$1,059	$1,174	53%	69%	+$62	-$8,424	140.4%	$-20,690 (vs do-nothing $-1,860)
$5.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$0.30	12/25	$1,080	$1,195	52%	68%	$-278	-$8,664	144.4%	$-20,930 (vs do-nothing $-2,100)
$5.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.25	4/25	$1,000	$1,185	49%	67%	+$32	-$2,908	48.5%	$-19,550 (vs do-nothing $-720)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 21:43