FIGHT Deep-Drawdown Playbook

1. Monday: sell the recommended pick, weekly tenor. On Tier C (likely recoverers) take one rung safer. Never past a week below CC-SS, never a tenor across earnings.
2. Every US evening: work the tripwires. TRIPPED (not WATCH) + a credit door = roll up-and-out that session, or set the conditional order at the tool's gate price. The first credit door after a trip is the best you will ever be offered on that call; it is perishable.
3. Friday: penny-buy everything back. Nothing expires, nothing is assigned, ever.
4. Judge by the ledger only. Banked/mo, CC-SS ratchet trajectory, assignments = zero. Never MTM.
5. Exit on trigger, not feeling. Whole → graduate. Floor unreachable 4 weeks → wind down. LEAPS < 12 mo → rebuild queue. Never add capital to a legacy block.
6. Three trips in one session = stand down. Sell nothing new, work escapes cheapest-time-value first, resume Monday.

With the roll-at-first-trip discipline, a challenge is a cheap (historically paid: 14 executed rolls averaged +$0.98/sh credit) event, so buy income, not challenge-avoidance: sell the 🎯 recommended pick on every Tier B / campaign block. Safe yield costs ~43% of the income for protection you no longer need. The exception is Tier C (recovery odds ≥ ~60%): there the real risk is capping the recovery itself, so take the safer rung and accept the small give-up. Calibration note: the engine over-predicts touch ~1.75x on portfolio average (887 contracts, 2026-07-20), so displayed touch odds are conservative — except the ETH complex: BMNR and ETHA touched at or ABOVE model rates. See the snapback sizing rule below.

Per-ticker calibration (716 deduped contracts, graded 2026-07-20) splits the book into two regimes. The ETH complex ran HOT: BMNR realized 39.1% weekly touch vs 37.4% predicted (1.05x) with a 17.4% realized breach rate; ETHA 50.0% vs 31.3% (1.60x), 28.6% breach. The BTC complex ran COLD: MSTR 0.44x, GLXY 0.37x, RIOT 0.19x, CLSK 0.77x, MARA 0.50x (n=5), with near-zero breaches. The violent-snapback fear is empirically real for BMNR, precautionary for MARA.

The rule: before sizing, ask who closes the hole. If income closes it in ≤ ~6 months, sell full size: a snapback just graduates the block early (rungs cross CC-SS, assignment nets ≥ 0). If the hole needs price recovery (income-only > ~12 mo, CC-SS far above spot), cap half the contracts max and take the covered half one rung safer: full-size calls there sell away the block's only win condition.

Cost of the rule: ~$10–11k/mo forfeited (~10% of realistic portfolio income). Benefit: half of ~$600k in recovery-dependent holes keeps healing at 0.9 delta through any rally, weekend gaps included, and every escape is half as deep. On ETH-beta names prefer 7–14d escapes over the 40d roll unless it is the only credit door left. Sizing tiers move with the holes: re-check whenever a block's income-only horizon crosses ~6 months.

Tier B = campaign-only (CC-SS far above spot; the banked ratchet is the path to whole). Tier C = recovery-plausible (protect the recovery: safer rung). Under-hedge blocks per telemetry (MSTR (h250), COIN (h300), BMNR (h25 x2), MARA (h15), MARA (h13)): downside structurally capped; verify per block via module_tail_risk.breach_for().

* = past Dec 31. Dates are the month the block's banked income + pro-rated recovery first covers its hole. Under the scenario, 5 of 19 blocks reach break-even by year-end, 12 by Q1 2027; the campaign-only tail (ETHA, NEM, RKLB, MARA-LC20-1782, MARA-LC20-1299, BMNR-LC25, BMNR-LC23-1299) runs on the banked-premium ratchet and its exit criteria, not on this recovery leg.

Portfolio arc under the scenario

Crossover at ~8.0 months (≈ Mar 18 2027). Expect ~69 challenges along the way (~2.9/week portfolio-wide): each is a roll worked at the tripwire, historically a paid event. The un-modeled tailwinds: roll credits, the CC-SS ratchet stepping rungs richer as cycles bank, and any recovery beyond 15%.

Reconciliation · whole-book net live position

The projection above is the deep-drawdown sleeve only (19 blocks, $1,198,273 of holes). The real account carries more than that. Pulled from the portfolio dashboard's own header aggregate (Jul 19 2026 22:29, 47 fortresses):

Invested capital $972,940 · realized income since Feb 1 already banked separately (+$466,817) · monthly CC avg +$84,583.

Whole-book break-even

Read the two horizons together: the deep-DD sleeve is whole ~Mar 2027 (~8 mo) because the fight campaign is concentrated there; the whole account is whole ~Feb–Oct 2028 because the extra $767k of shallow drag has no dedicated campaign and the same income stream must also carry it. A chunk of the −$1.97M is paid-for HP insurance that decays to zero by design, not a recoverable hole — treat that slice as the cost of the tail protection, not part of the climb.

• Never sell below CC-SS at monthly+ tenor; weekly only below the floor.
• Never write a tenor across an earnings date (the dashboards banner it).
• Never let a call expire or be assigned; terminal action is the penny buyback.
• Never judge the campaign by MTM or plan on ev_per_month (use net income × 68%).
• Never chase the 100%-normal column after two green weeks; rung step-downs are authorized by the ledger, not by mood.
• Never add capital to a BBC/legacy block.

• Nightly (auto): evening_run refreshes the seam + dashboards.
• Morning: master page: earnings watch → tripwires → FIGHT ladder.
• Monthly: --score-calibration + keep-rate per ticker; adjust rungs on evidence. Track: banked vs plan ($81,406/mo), CC-SS ratchet per block, assignments (must stay zero).
• Quarterly: fortress_rebuild routing for LEAPS lifecycle; exit triggers per block.