FIGHT Deep-Drawdown Playbook

Income is the play; recovery is the bonus. Companion pages: the live FIGHT portfolio · strategy memo in _md_files/FIGHT_DEEP_DRAWDOWN_STRATEGY_2026-07-16.md

BUILT 2026-07-16 18:19 · DATA: FIGHT SEAM 2026-07-16 16:11 SGT

⚠ Advisory reference, not orders. Strikes and premiums go stale in hours: always recompute with a fresh fortress_fight.py --all before writing anything. All CC decisions manual in TWS.

The six rules (the whole machine)

Monday: sell the recommended pick, weekly tenor. On Tier C (likely recoverers) take one rung safer. Never past a week below CC-SS, never a tenor across earnings.
Every US evening: work the tripwires. TRIPPED (not WATCH) + a credit door = roll up-and-out that session, or set the conditional order at the tool's gate price. The first credit door after a trip is the best you will ever be offered on that call; it is perishable.
Friday: penny-buy everything back. Nothing expires, nothing is assigned, ever.
Judge by the ledger only. Banked/mo, CC-SS ratchet trajectory, assignments = zero. Never MTM.
Exit on trigger, not feeling. Whole → graduate. Floor unreachable 4 weeks → wind down. LEAPS < 12 mo → rebuild queue. Never add capital to a legacy block.
Three trips in one session = stand down. Sell nothing new, work escapes cheapest-time-value first, resume Monday.

Rung choice: recommended vs safe yield

With the roll-at-first-trip discipline, a challenge is a cheap (historically paid: 12 executed rolls averaged +$1.04/sh credit) event, so buy income, not challenge-avoidance: sell the 🎯 recommended pick on every Tier B / campaign block. Safe yield costs ~43% of the income for protection you no longer need. The exception is Tier C (recovery odds ≥ ~60%): there the real risk is capping the recovery itself, so take the safer rung and accept the small give-up. Calibration note: the engine over-predicts touch ~1.3–1.5x (measured), so displayed touch odds are conservative.

The per-block model · what the income realistically does

Realistic $/mo = pick net income × 68% forecast keep × 93% two-cohort ladder efficiency. Months-to-whole = (hole − banked) / realistic, assuming zero price recovery; any recovery only shortens it.

Fortress	Tier	Spot	CC-SS	Recovery odds	Pick (today)	Rung to sell	Per cycle	Gross /mo	Realistic /mo	Hole	Months to whole
COIN-LC500	B	$164.97	$332.59 2.02x spot	–	17x $180 80% surv	🎯 pick	$5,695	$21,356	$13,506	$123,981	9 mo
MARA-LC20-1299	B	$12.09	$18.53 1.53x spot	25%	193x $13.5 82% surv	🎯 pick	$5,018	$18,846	$11,918	$98,600	8 mo
MU-LC970	C	$887.98	$1,227.92 1.38x spot	63%	2x $1000 81% surv	safer rung	$4,790	$17,503	$11,069	$69,988	6 mo
BMNR-LC23-1782	B	$15.59	$21.35 1.37x spot	–	126x $17 78% surv	🎯 pick	$4,410	$16,778	$10,610	$67,200	6 mo
GLXY	B	$24.50	$33.57 1.37x spot	41%	71x $27.5 80% surv	🎯 pick	$3,195	$12,089	$7,645	$96,750	12 mo
BMNR-LC23-1299	B	$15.59	$39.75 2.55x spot	–	63x $17 78% surv	🎯 pick	$2,205	$8,389	$5,305	$166,275	31 mo
BMNR-LC10	B	$15.59	$19.41 1.25x spot	48%	42x $17 78% surv	🎯 pick	$1,470	$6,056	$3,830	$21,750	6 mo
BMNR-LC25	B	$15.59	$59.31 3.80x spot	34%	42x $17 78% surv	🎯 pick	$1,470	$5,592	$3,537	$196,750	56 mo
MARA-LC20-1782	B	$12.09	$19.39 1.60x spot	37%	49x $13.5 82% surv	🎯 pick	$1,274	$4,782	$3,024	$28,100	9 mo
ENPH	C	$43.90	$58.92 1.34x spot	62%	10x $47.5 94% surv	safer rung	$1,050	$3,938	$2,490	$16,270	6 mo
CRWV	B	$76.20	$128.88 1.69x spot	53%	5x $85 81% surv	🎯 pick	$841	$2,937	$1,857	$26,905	14 mo
RKLB	B	$75.01	$147.06 1.96x spot	48%	5x $83 78% surv	🎯 pick	$875	$2,918	$1,845	$44,568	24 mo
MSTR	B	$96.15	$167.33 1.74x spot	48%	4x $106 80% surv	🎯 pick	$812	$2,752	$1,741	$31,656	18 mo
MDB	C	$333.00	$380.73 1.14x spot	66%	1x $352.5 73% surv	safer rung	$655	$2,355	$1,489	$5,055	3 mo
NEM	C	$94.56	$118.04 1.25x spot	61%	5x $101 82% surv	safer rung	$635	$2,135	$1,350	$12,645	9 mo
COPX	C	$77.07	$94.28 1.22x spot	–	1x $80.5 75% surv	safer rung	$80	$300	$190	$1,660	9 mo
TOTAL (16)							$34,475	$128,725	$81,406	$1,008,153	12.3 mo

Tier B = campaign-only (CC-SS far above spot; the banked ratchet is the path to whole). Tier C = recovery-plausible (protect the recovery: safer rung). Under-hedge blocks per telemetry (MSTR (h250), COIN (h300), BMNR (h25 x2), MARA (h15), MARA (h13)): downside structurally capped; verify per block via module_tail_risk.breach_for().

How it helps · the portfolio arc (zero-recovery scenario)

Horizon	Cumulative banked (realistic)	Hole earned back ($1,008,153)
3 months	$250,979	25% of the hole
6 months	$495,195	49% of the hole
9 months	$739,412	73% of the hole
12 months	$983,629	98% of the hole
15 months	$1,227,845	122% of the hole

Every banked dollar also ratchets that block's CC-SS down, so safe strikes drift toward spot as the campaign runs; recovery, if it comes, is pure acceleration. Plan number: ~$81,406 /mo; the whole hole self-funds in ~12 months with no recovery at all.

The weekly cohort ladder

Two cohorts, ~50/50 by income, expiries one Friday apart. Split the big blocks (GLXY, MARA-1299, COIN-LC500) internally.
Every Monday: re-write ONLY the cohort that expired last Friday, out to the Friday ~11–12 days ahead. The other cohort is mid-flight.
Result: at most half the caps live in any week; the cohort you roll always has a week of time value left (wide doors); evening workload halves.
Earnings bends cohorts: a name reporting mid-window sits in whichever cohort clears its print that cycle.
Want permanent rally participation? Buy it with contracts (cover ~70–80%, leave the rest uncapped), never with idle weeks.

Roll doctrine (when tripped)

Trigger = TRIPPED / the 🔵 upgrade. WATCH is not a trigger (half of watches recede; rolling there is churn).
Door order: up-and-out credit → buy-time credit → small debit safety roll ([negok]). Judge doors by survival ≥~70% and Stock @ Cap, not credit alone.
Fire-now accelerants: spike-vol name, new session highs, weekend or earnings inside the window, several cluster names pressing at once.
Late anyway? A debit roll still beats assignment; frozen is the only unrecoverable state. Deep ITM + TV ≤ 0 = assignment risk is live TONIGHT.
MARA cold start: first 2–3 cycles at ~70% of suggested contracts (zero keep-rate history).

Never-do list

Never sell below CC-SS at monthly+ tenor; weekly only below the floor.
Never write a tenor across an earnings date (the dashboards banner it).
Never let a call expire or be assigned; terminal action is the penny buyback.
Never judge the campaign by MTM or plan on ev_per_month (use net income × 68%).
Never chase the 100%-normal column after two green weeks; rung step-downs are authorized by the ledger, not by mood.
Never add capital to a BBC/legacy block.

Review cadence

Nightly (auto): evening_run refreshes the seam + dashboards.
Morning: master page: earnings watch → tripwires → FIGHT ladder.
Monthly: --score-calibration + keep-rate per ticker; adjust rungs on evidence. Track: banked vs plan ($81,406/mo), CC-SS ratchet per block, assignments (must stay zero).
Quarterly: fortress_rebuild routing for LEAPS lifecycle; exit triggers per block.

Advisory reference generated from runs/fight/PORTFOLIO/last_fight.json (2026-07-16 16:11 SGT) + campaign ledgers · keep rate 68% and ladder efficiency 93% are planning haircuts, not promises · not investment advice; all orders manual in TWS.