$25M Plan Portfolio Plan Income Book Crypto Convexity Recommendations Crash Liquidation

$25M ALLOCATION PLAN · FIVE SLEEVES · ~$152k/MO OF INCOME · NO FORCED-LIQUIDATION PATH

High-level plan built 2026-09-25. Income Book scaled from its live tab (realized-calibrated). Upside fortresses priced by leap_builder from the 2026-09-22 17:53 SGT chain export (offline replay). ETF study on daily closes to 2026-09-24. Convexity calls priced at the IV implied by the latest real far-OTM quotes. Real estate is placeholder assumptions. Read-only; nothing here places orders.

THE PLAN AT A GLANCE

Five sleeves, each with one job. The two option books are each funded to their full max loss (the no-liquidation rule), the convexity sleeve is calls only (the premium is the whole risk), and the ETFs and property carry no leverage. So no market move can force a sale; the worst cases below are paper losses the plan rides.
Income Book
$3.50M
Convexity plays
$1.50M
Real estate
$8.00M
Core ETFs
$7.00M
Upside fortresses
$5.00M
Capital
$25.00M
5 sleeves · notional exposure $31.05M (1.24x)
Income / month
$151,738
$1.82M/yr = 7.3% on capital · Income Book $122k
Defined option max loss
$9.74M
39% of the plan · every dollar of it already set aside as cash
Liquidation risk
NONE
option books ML ≤ cash · calls-only convexity · unlevered shares + property
SleeveCapitalShareJobBuilt withIncome / moWorst caseIn a crashIn a melt-upDetail
Income Book$3.50M14%Monthly cash flowAll-capped income fortresses (8 names, realized-calibrated)$122,252Defined: max loss $3.25M (0.93x its cash)Loses $1.62M at a −30% shock, keeps payingCapped: about +$570k, then income onlyIncome Book tab
Convexity plays$1.50M6%Lottery ticket on a crypto re-rateCalls only: MARA + BMNR Jan-2029, strike ~3x spot$0Defined: the premium, $1.50MGoes to about zero, nothing moreUncapped: $21.64M at MARA $100 / BMNR $150Crypto Convexity tab
Real estate$8.00M32%Real-asset ballast outside the marketProperty, unlevered (assumptions, see below)$20,000Not marked daily; a −10% year = -$800kSlow, rent keeps comingSlow: about 3%/yr appreciationbelow
Core ETFs (stock only)$7.00M28%Liquid core and dry powderSPY 45 / QQQ 15 / GLD 30 / IBIT 10, shares only$3,325Market: a 2022-style year ≈ -$1.59MFalls with the market, GLD cushionsUncapped at 1.0xbelow
Upside fortresses$5.00M20%Uncapped, leveraged growth exposure7 leap_builder fortresses, Dec-28/Jan-29 LEAPS, no calls written$6,161Defined: max loss $4.99M (= its cash)The worst sleeve in a bad year (1.9x notional)Uncapped at about 1.9xbelow
TOTAL$25.00M100%$151,738$9.74M defined option max loss

ONE YEAR FROM NOW: BAD, BASE AND STRONG

A rough 12-month P&L per sleeve under three market paths, income included. The bad year is a 2022 replay (equities down a quarter to a third, crypto down hard, gold flat). The option sleeves are marked with Black-Scholes at each leg's own implied vol, one year closer to expiry; the Income Book uses its own tab's −30% shock row and earns 60% of its normal income in the bad year (fewer calls get written in a drawdown).
Assumed 12-month moveSPYQQQGLDIBITMARA / BMNRUpside namesIncome namesProperty
Bad year (2022-style)-25%-33%+0%-65%-75%-35%-30%-10%
Base year+10%+12%+5%+10%+10%+12%+10%+3%
Strong year+30%+40%+15%+100%+200%+50%+25%+6%
12-month P&LIncome BookConvexity playsReal estateCore ETFsUpside fortressesWhole plan
Bad year (2022-style)-$738k-$1.49M-$560k-$1.55M-$3.08M-$7.41M
-29.7% of the plan
Base year+$2.04M-$591k+$480k+$656k+$516k+$3.10M
+12.4% of the plan
Strong year+$2.04M+$5.49M+$720k+$2.42M+$4.02M+$14.68M
+58.7% of the plan

1 · INCOME BOOK · $3.50M · THE CASH-FLOW ENGINE

The Income Book tab as it stands, scaled from its $2.95M account to $3.50M (about 1.19x the contracts, same 0.93x max-loss-to-cash). Its income is already priced at what your calls have actually earned, not model premium, so this is the most battle-tested number on the page. Every contract is written, so a rally only adds about one cycle of upside; that is the job of sleeves 2 and 5.
AccountCC income / moCash interest / moTotal / moMax lossNotional−30% shock (MTM)Rally, capped
Income Book tab today$2.95M$100,037$3,004$103,041$2.74M$5.66M-$1.36M+$480k
This plan (x1.186)$3.50M$118,688$3,564$122,252$3.25M$6.72M-$1.62M+$570k

2 · CONVEXITY PLAYS · $1.50M · THE LOTTERY TICKET

Calls only, per the moonshot rule: no short puts, so the premium is the entire risk and nothing can be liquidated. Jan-2029 expiry (listing now) with strikes near 3x spot, split evenly between MARA and BMNR. Illustrative pricing: Black-Scholes at the implied vol backed out of the latest real far-OTM quotes (MARA Dec-27 35C at $1.99 on 09-23, BMNR Jan-28 70C at $2.75 on 08-23), which reflects the call skew. Re-derive strikes live with leap_builder --forecast --structure pure before buying. This sleeve pays nothing and probably expires near zero unless crypto re-rates; when it does, it is the plan's biggest single winner.
NameSpotCallPremiumContractsCost = max lossBreakeven
at expiry
Value at expiry (price · multiple of cost)
MARA$12.9840C Jan-29$3.29
IV 89%
2,278$750k$43.29
3.3x spot
$0
at $20 · 0.0x
$0
at $40 · 0.0x
$4.56M
at $60 · 6.1x
$13.67M
at $100 · 18.2x
$36.45M
at $200 · 48.6x
BMNR$25.9975C Jan-29$7.05
IV 90%
1,063$750k$82.05
3.2x spot
$0
at $40 · 0.0x
$0
at $70 · 0.0x
$2.66M
at $100 · 3.5x
$7.97M
at $150 · 10.6x
$23.92M
at $300 · 31.9x

3 · REAL ESTATE · $8.00M · BALLAST OUTSIDE THE MARKET

No data source behind this sleeve yet, so it carries placeholder assumptions: unlevered, a 3.0% net yield after costs, 3.0%/yr appreciation. It is the largest sleeve (a third of the plan), so these two inputs move the headline income more than anything else on the page: every 0.5% of net yield is $3,333/mo. Replace them with the actual properties' numbers when chosen.
InputAssumedWhat it gives on $8.00M
Net rental yield (after costs, unlevered)3.0%$20,000/mo · $240k/yr
Appreciation3.0%/yr$240k/yr
Bad year−10% value-$560k incl. rent

4 · CORE ETFs · $7.00M · STOCK ONLY: SPY 45% / QQQ 15% / GLD 30% / IBIT 10%

The suggested split is picked for how these four behave inside this plan, not in isolation. The rest of the plan is already long tech (the upside fortresses own GOOG, AMZN, META, MU, AMD, DELL, PLTR) and long crypto (sleeve 2). QQQ moves with that tech basket almost one-for-one (+0.90) and IBIT moves with MARA (+0.70), so large weights in either just repeat bets the plan already makes. GLD is barely correlated with anything else here, so it gets a big weight. SPY is the anchor.
ETFWeightAmountPrice
2026-09-24
SharesDividends / moCorrelation to the
upside fortresses
Correlation
to MARA
Role
SPY45%$3.15M$766.464,109$2,888+0.83+0.49The core. Broadest US exposure, lowest volatility of the four.
QQQ15%$1.05M$739.281,420$438+0.90+0.51Kept small: it moves almost in lockstep with the upside fortresses, which already own its biggest names.
GLD30%$2.10M$390.405,379$0+0.19+0.15The only real diversifier in the whole plan. Earns its big weight.
IBIT10%$700k$47.6514,690$0+0.42+0.70Kept small: already owned through MARA/BMNR, and at 10% it still carries about a fifth of the sleeve's risk.
TOTAL100%$7.00M$3,325
Checked against history, rebalanced quarterly. The recommended mix has the best risk-adjusted return (Sharpe) in both windows, the shallowest drawdown since IBIT launched, and about the same volatility as holding SPY alone while returning far more. More IBIT or equal weights raised return a little in this bull run but bought more volatility and drawdown than they paid for; 5 years (with Bitcoin standing in for IBIT, so 2022 is included) shows the same ranking.
Mix (SPY/QQQ/GLD/IBIT)IBIT era (Jan-2024 on)5 years, BTC as IBIT proxy
CAGRVolatilityMax drawdownSharpeIBIT share
of risk
CAGRVolatilityMax drawdownSharpeIBIT share
of risk
Recommended 45/15/30/1027.6%15.8%-13.4%1.5220%17.8%16.0%-27.5%0.8922%
More QQQ 45/20/25/1027.3%16.0%-14.6%1.4820%17.5%16.6%-28.6%0.8521%
More IBIT 40/15/30/1528.6%16.9%-14.1%1.4832%18.5%17.2%-30.7%0.8734%
Inverse-volatility weights28.0%16.7%-14.8%1.4723%18.3%16.7%-29.2%0.8823%
Equity-heavy 50/30/10/1025.8%17.2%-18.1%1.3018%16.6%18.5%-31.4%0.7118%
Equal 25 each30.2%20.1%-15.6%1.3352%19.7%20.9%-39.4%0.7854%
SPY only20.8%15.7%-18.8%1.110%13.2%17.2%-24.5%0.560%

5 · UPSIDE FORTRESSES · $5.00M · UNCAPPED STRUCTURAL PARTICIPATION

Seven leap_builder fortresses (long LEAPS call, financed by a short put, floored by an owned hedge put, all on the Dec-28/Jan-29 chain), each sized so its max loss equals its budget: GOOG $1.0M, AMZN $0.8M, META $0.8M, MU $0.7M, AMD $0.6M, DELL $0.6M, PLTR $0.5M. No calls are written, so the upside is uncapped. The names are deliberate: AMZN, META and MU are capped inside the Income Book, so this sleeve gives back their upside; GOOG, AMD, DELL and PLTR realize too little call income to earn an Income Book seat but are strong growth exposure. $2.81M is invested; the other $2.19M sits as the cash that backs the max loss and earns $6,161/mo.
NameSpot
09-22
ExpiryLC / SP / HPContractsInvestedMax loss
(= budget)
NotionalNotional
per $ of ML
Net delta
/ share
At expiry
+25%
At expiry
+50%
GOOG$354.34Dec-28320 / 380 / 34078$688k$1000k$2.76M2.8x0.84+$271k+$962k
AMZN$260.30Dec-28240 / 280 / 25086$541k$799k$2.24M2.8x0.83+$194k+$753k
META$743.08Dec-28570 / 800 / 65021$484k$799k$1.56M2.0x0.94+$270k+$660k
MU$1033.72Dec-28540 / 1130 / 6508$316k$700k$827k1.2x1.10+$286k+$493k
AMD$609.00Jan-29310 / 640 / 39012$300k$600k$731k1.2x1.10+$242k+$424k
DELL$571.76Dec-28230 / 620 / 31011$258k$599k$629k1.0x1.13+$275k+$432k
PLTR$183.82Jan-2995 / 200 / 11532$227k$499k$588k1.2x1.11+$205k+$352k
TOTAL (7)$2.81M$4.99M$9.34M1.9x+$1.74M+$4.08M
The honest trade-off versus simply buying $5.00M of the same shares: the fortresses need the names to rise to pay. Flat by expiry, the time value and hedge puts cost about $1.30M; a broad −30% loses the full max loss. The break-even against shares is about +14% by expiry; a normal +10%/yr drift is about +24% over the 2.25 years, and from there the 1.9x exposure pulls clearly ahead.
Every name moves, by expiry-30%flat+25%+50%+100%
Upside fortresses-$4.17M-$1.30M+$1.74M+$4.08M+$8.75M
Same $5.00M in shares-$1.50M+$0+$1.25M+$2.50M+$5.00M
Fortress minus shares-$2.67M-$1.30M+$492k+$1.58M+$3.75M

WHAT THIS PLAN SAYS, IN PLAIN ENGLISH

  • Income: about $151,738/mo ($1.82M/yr, 7.3% on the $25M). The Income Book is 81% of it and is priced at your realized call rates; the property's $20,000 is an assumption.
  • Base year: about +$3.10M (12.4%). Bad year (2022 replay): about -$7.41M (-29.7%), led by the upside fortresses (-$3.08M) and the ETFs (-$1.55M); nothing is forced to sell, so it is a paper loss the plan rides. Strong year: about +$14.68M (58.7%), with the convexity calls (+$5.49M) and upside fortresses (+$4.02M) doing the work.
  • How the sleeves cover each other: the Income Book pays every month but cannot run; the upside fortresses and convexity calls run but pay nothing; GLD and property are the parts that do not fall with tech and crypto.
  • The one concentration to know about: tech and crypto show up in three sleeves (Income Book names, the upside fortresses, the convexity calls). That is why the ETF sleeve leans on GLD and keeps QQQ and IBIT small.
  • ASSUMPTIONS AND CAVEATS

  • High-level plan, not a ticket list. Every option leg must be re-priced live in RTH and margin-checked (whatIf) before placing anything.
  • Income Book at $3.50M is a linear scale of the $2.95M book: real contract counts round, and adding contracts to thin names (HOOD, SPCX) may not fill at the same premium.
  • Upside fortress quotes are the 2026-09-22 17:53 SGT pre-market chain export replayed through leap_builder offline; spots have since moved (for example META 769 and AMD 621 on 2026-09-24). Each name's implied vol is backed out of its own net debit for the scenario marks.
  • Convexity premiums are model prices anchored to one real quote per name (the BMNR quote is a month old), not live Jan-2029 quotes.
  • Run each option sleeve in an account funded to its own max loss, as the current plan does; the ETF shares and property should not be the collateral that keeps an option book alive.
  • ETF dividends are approximate trailing yields (SPY 1.1%, QQQ 0.5%). Cash interest is IBKR's benchmark minus 0.5% = 3.38%.
  • Correlations use 2 years of daily closes; the backtests use quarterly rebalancing and ignore costs.