$25M ALLOCATION PLAN · FIVE SLEEVES · ~$152k/MO OF INCOME · NO FORCED-LIQUIDATION PATH
High-level plan built 2026-09-25. Income Book scaled from its live tab (realized-calibrated). Upside fortresses priced by leap_builder from the 2026-09-22 17:53 SGT chain export (offline replay). ETF study on daily closes to 2026-09-24. Convexity calls priced at the IV implied by the latest real far-OTM quotes. Real estate is placeholder assumptions. Read-only; nothing here places orders.
THE PLAN AT A GLANCE
Five sleeves, each with one job. The two option books are each funded to their full max loss (the no-liquidation rule), the convexity sleeve is calls only (the premium is the whole risk), and the ETFs and property carry no leverage. So no market move can force a sale; the worst cases below are paper losses the plan rides.
Income Book
$3.50M
Convexity plays
$1.50M
Real estate
$8.00M
Core ETFs
$7.00M
Upside fortresses
$5.00M
Capital
$25.00M
5 sleeves · notional exposure $31.05M (1.24x)
Income / month
$151,738
$1.82M/yr = 7.3% on capital · Income Book $122k
Defined option max loss
$9.74M
39% of the plan · every dollar of it already set aside as cash
Liquidation risk
NONE
option books ML ≤ cash · calls-only convexity · unlevered shares + property
| Sleeve | Capital | Share | Job | Built with | Income / mo | Worst case | In a crash | In a melt-up | Detail |
|---|
| Income Book | $3.50M | 14% | Monthly cash flow | All-capped income fortresses (8 names, realized-calibrated) | $122,252 | Defined: max loss $3.25M (0.93x its cash) | Loses $1.62M at a −30% shock, keeps paying | Capped: about +$570k, then income only | Income Book tab |
| Convexity plays | $1.50M | 6% | Lottery ticket on a crypto re-rate | Calls only: MARA + BMNR Jan-2029, strike ~3x spot | $0 | Defined: the premium, $1.50M | Goes to about zero, nothing more | Uncapped: $21.64M at MARA $100 / BMNR $150 | Crypto Convexity tab |
| Real estate | $8.00M | 32% | Real-asset ballast outside the market | Property, unlevered (assumptions, see below) | $20,000 | Not marked daily; a −10% year = -$800k | Slow, rent keeps coming | Slow: about 3%/yr appreciation | below |
| Core ETFs (stock only) | $7.00M | 28% | Liquid core and dry powder | SPY 45 / QQQ 15 / GLD 30 / IBIT 10, shares only | $3,325 | Market: a 2022-style year ≈ -$1.59M | Falls with the market, GLD cushions | Uncapped at 1.0x | below |
| Upside fortresses | $5.00M | 20% | Uncapped, leveraged growth exposure | 7 leap_builder fortresses, Dec-28/Jan-29 LEAPS, no calls written | $6,161 | Defined: max loss $4.99M (= its cash) | The worst sleeve in a bad year (1.9x notional) | Uncapped at about 1.9x | below |
| TOTAL | $25.00M | 100% | | | $151,738 | $9.74M defined option max loss | | | |
ONE YEAR FROM NOW: BAD, BASE AND STRONG
A rough 12-month P&L per sleeve under three market paths, income included. The bad year is a 2022 replay (equities down a quarter to a third, crypto down hard, gold flat). The option sleeves are marked with Black-Scholes at each leg's own implied vol, one year closer to expiry; the Income Book uses its own tab's −30% shock row and earns 60% of its normal income in the bad year (fewer calls get written in a drawdown).
| Assumed 12-month move | SPY | QQQ | GLD | IBIT | MARA / BMNR | Upside names | Income names | Property |
|---|
| Bad year (2022-style) | -25% | -33% | +0% | -65% | -75% | -35% | -30% | -10% |
| Base year | +10% | +12% | +5% | +10% | +10% | +12% | +10% | +3% |
| Strong year | +30% | +40% | +15% | +100% | +200% | +50% | +25% | +6% |
| 12-month P&L | Income Book | Convexity plays | Real estate | Core ETFs | Upside fortresses | Whole plan |
|---|
| Bad year (2022-style) | -$738k | -$1.49M | -$560k | -$1.55M | -$3.08M | -$7.41M -29.7% of the plan |
| Base year | +$2.04M | -$591k | +$480k | +$656k | +$516k | +$3.10M +12.4% of the plan |
| Strong year | +$2.04M | +$5.49M | +$720k | +$2.42M | +$4.02M | +$14.68M +58.7% of the plan |
1 · INCOME BOOK · $3.50M · THE CASH-FLOW ENGINE
The
Income Book tab as it stands, scaled from its $2.95M account to $3.50M (about 1.19x the contracts, same 0.93x max-loss-to-cash). Its income is already priced at what your calls have actually earned, not model premium, so this is the most battle-tested number on the page. Every contract is written, so a rally only adds about one cycle of upside; that is the job of sleeves 2 and 5.
| Account | CC income / mo | Cash interest / mo | Total / mo | Max loss | Notional | −30% shock (MTM) | Rally, capped |
|---|
| Income Book tab today | $2.95M | $100,037 | $3,004 | $103,041 | $2.74M | $5.66M | -$1.36M | +$480k |
| This plan (x1.186) | $3.50M | $118,688 | $3,564 | $122,252 | $3.25M | $6.72M | -$1.62M | +$570k |
2 · CONVEXITY PLAYS · $1.50M · THE LOTTERY TICKET
Calls only, per the moonshot rule: no short puts, so the premium is the entire risk and nothing can be liquidated. Jan-2029 expiry (listing now) with strikes near 3x spot, split evenly between MARA and BMNR. Illustrative pricing: Black-Scholes at the implied vol backed out of the latest real far-OTM quotes (MARA Dec-27 35C at $1.99 on 09-23, BMNR Jan-28 70C at $2.75 on 08-23), which reflects the call skew. Re-derive strikes live with leap_builder --forecast --structure pure before buying. This sleeve pays nothing and probably expires near zero unless crypto re-rates; when it does, it is the plan's biggest single winner.
| Name | Spot | Call | Premium | Contracts | Cost = max loss | Breakeven at expiry | Value at expiry (price · multiple of cost) |
|---|
| MARA | $12.98 | 40C Jan-29 | $3.29 IV 89% | 2,278 | $750k | $43.29 3.3x spot | $0 at $20 · 0.0x | $0 at $40 · 0.0x | $4.56M at $60 · 6.1x | $13.67M at $100 · 18.2x | $36.45M at $200 · 48.6x |
| BMNR | $25.99 | 75C Jan-29 | $7.05 IV 90% | 1,063 | $750k | $82.05 3.2x spot | $0 at $40 · 0.0x | $0 at $70 · 0.0x | $2.66M at $100 · 3.5x | $7.97M at $150 · 10.6x | $23.92M at $300 · 31.9x |
3 · REAL ESTATE · $8.00M · BALLAST OUTSIDE THE MARKET
No data source behind this sleeve yet, so it carries placeholder assumptions: unlevered, a 3.0% net yield after costs, 3.0%/yr appreciation. It is the largest sleeve (a third of the plan), so these two inputs move the headline income more than anything else on the page: every 0.5% of net yield is $3,333/mo. Replace them with the actual properties' numbers when chosen.
| Input | Assumed | What it gives on $8.00M |
|---|
| Net rental yield (after costs, unlevered) | 3.0% | $20,000/mo · $240k/yr |
| Appreciation | 3.0%/yr | $240k/yr |
| Bad year | −10% value | -$560k incl. rent |
4 · CORE ETFs · $7.00M · STOCK ONLY: SPY 45% / QQQ 15% / GLD 30% / IBIT 10%
The suggested split is picked for how these four behave inside this plan, not in isolation. The rest of the plan is already long tech (the upside fortresses own GOOG, AMZN, META, MU, AMD, DELL, PLTR) and long crypto (sleeve 2). QQQ moves with that tech basket almost one-for-one (+0.90) and IBIT moves with MARA (+0.70), so large weights in either just repeat bets the plan already makes. GLD is barely correlated with anything else here, so it gets a big weight. SPY is the anchor.
| ETF | Weight | Amount | Price 2026-09-24 | Shares | Dividends / mo | Correlation to the upside fortresses | Correlation to MARA | Role |
|---|
| SPY | 45% | $3.15M | $766.46 | 4,109 | $2,888 | +0.83 | +0.49 | The core. Broadest US exposure, lowest volatility of the four. |
| QQQ | 15% | $1.05M | $739.28 | 1,420 | $438 | +0.90 | +0.51 | Kept small: it moves almost in lockstep with the upside fortresses, which already own its biggest names. |
| GLD | 30% | $2.10M | $390.40 | 5,379 | $0 | +0.19 | +0.15 | The only real diversifier in the whole plan. Earns its big weight. |
| IBIT | 10% | $700k | $47.65 | 14,690 | $0 | +0.42 | +0.70 | Kept small: already owned through MARA/BMNR, and at 10% it still carries about a fifth of the sleeve's risk. |
| TOTAL | 100% | $7.00M | | | $3,325 | | | |
Checked against history, rebalanced quarterly. The recommended mix has the best risk-adjusted return (Sharpe) in both windows, the shallowest drawdown since IBIT launched, and about the same volatility as holding SPY alone while returning far more. More IBIT or equal weights raised return a little in this bull run but bought more volatility and drawdown than they paid for; 5 years (with Bitcoin standing in for IBIT, so 2022 is included) shows the same ranking.
| Mix (SPY/QQQ/GLD/IBIT) | IBIT era (Jan-2024 on) | 5 years, BTC as IBIT proxy |
|---|
| CAGR | Volatility | Max drawdown | Sharpe | IBIT share of risk | CAGR | Volatility | Max drawdown | Sharpe | IBIT share of risk |
|---|
| Recommended 45/15/30/10 | 27.6% | 15.8% | -13.4% | 1.52 | 20% | 17.8% | 16.0% | -27.5% | 0.89 | 22% |
| More QQQ 45/20/25/10 | 27.3% | 16.0% | -14.6% | 1.48 | 20% | 17.5% | 16.6% | -28.6% | 0.85 | 21% |
| More IBIT 40/15/30/15 | 28.6% | 16.9% | -14.1% | 1.48 | 32% | 18.5% | 17.2% | -30.7% | 0.87 | 34% |
| Inverse-volatility weights | 28.0% | 16.7% | -14.8% | 1.47 | 23% | 18.3% | 16.7% | -29.2% | 0.88 | 23% |
| Equity-heavy 50/30/10/10 | 25.8% | 17.2% | -18.1% | 1.30 | 18% | 16.6% | 18.5% | -31.4% | 0.71 | 18% |
| Equal 25 each | 30.2% | 20.1% | -15.6% | 1.33 | 52% | 19.7% | 20.9% | -39.4% | 0.78 | 54% |
| SPY only | 20.8% | 15.7% | -18.8% | 1.11 | 0% | 13.2% | 17.2% | -24.5% | 0.56 | 0% |
5 · UPSIDE FORTRESSES · $5.00M · UNCAPPED STRUCTURAL PARTICIPATION
Seven leap_builder fortresses (long LEAPS call, financed by a short put, floored by an owned hedge put, all on the Dec-28/Jan-29 chain), each sized so its max loss equals its budget: GOOG $1.0M, AMZN $0.8M, META $0.8M, MU $0.7M, AMD $0.6M, DELL $0.6M, PLTR $0.5M. No calls are written, so the upside is uncapped. The names are deliberate: AMZN, META and MU are capped inside the Income Book, so this sleeve gives back their upside; GOOG, AMD, DELL and PLTR realize too little call income to earn an Income Book seat but are strong growth exposure. $2.81M is invested; the other $2.19M sits as the cash that backs the max loss and earns $6,161/mo.
| Name | Spot 09-22 | Expiry | LC / SP / HP | Contracts | Invested | Max loss (= budget) | Notional | Notional per $ of ML | Net delta / share | At expiry +25% | At expiry +50% |
|---|
| GOOG | $354.34 | Dec-28 | 320 / 380 / 340 | 78 | $688k | $1000k | $2.76M | 2.8x | 0.84 | +$271k | +$962k |
| AMZN | $260.30 | Dec-28 | 240 / 280 / 250 | 86 | $541k | $799k | $2.24M | 2.8x | 0.83 | +$194k | +$753k |
| META | $743.08 | Dec-28 | 570 / 800 / 650 | 21 | $484k | $799k | $1.56M | 2.0x | 0.94 | +$270k | +$660k |
| MU | $1033.72 | Dec-28 | 540 / 1130 / 650 | 8 | $316k | $700k | $827k | 1.2x | 1.10 | +$286k | +$493k |
| AMD | $609.00 | Jan-29 | 310 / 640 / 390 | 12 | $300k | $600k | $731k | 1.2x | 1.10 | +$242k | +$424k |
| DELL | $571.76 | Dec-28 | 230 / 620 / 310 | 11 | $258k | $599k | $629k | 1.0x | 1.13 | +$275k | +$432k |
| PLTR | $183.82 | Jan-29 | 95 / 200 / 115 | 32 | $227k | $499k | $588k | 1.2x | 1.11 | +$205k | +$352k |
| TOTAL (7) | | | | | $2.81M | $4.99M | $9.34M | 1.9x | | +$1.74M | +$4.08M |
The honest trade-off versus simply buying $5.00M of the same shares: the fortresses need the names to rise to pay. Flat by expiry, the time value and hedge puts cost about $1.30M; a broad −30% loses the full max loss. The break-even against shares is about +14% by expiry; a normal +10%/yr drift is about +24% over the 2.25 years, and from there the 1.9x exposure pulls clearly ahead.
| Every name moves, by expiry | -30% | flat | +25% | +50% | +100% |
|---|
| Upside fortresses | -$4.17M | -$1.30M | +$1.74M | +$4.08M | +$8.75M |
| Same $5.00M in shares | -$1.50M | +$0 | +$1.25M | +$2.50M | +$5.00M |
| Fortress minus shares | -$2.67M | -$1.30M | +$492k | +$1.58M | +$3.75M |
WHAT THIS PLAN SAYS, IN PLAIN ENGLISH
Income: about $151,738/mo ($1.82M/yr, 7.3% on the $25M). The Income Book is 81% of it and is priced at your realized call rates; the property's $20,000 is an assumption.
Base year: about +$3.10M (12.4%). Bad year (2022 replay): about -$7.41M (-29.7%), led by the upside fortresses (-$3.08M) and the ETFs (-$1.55M); nothing is forced to sell, so it is a paper loss the plan rides. Strong year: about +$14.68M (58.7%), with the convexity calls (+$5.49M) and upside fortresses (+$4.02M) doing the work.
How the sleeves cover each other: the Income Book pays every month but cannot run; the upside fortresses and convexity calls run but pay nothing; GLD and property are the parts that do not fall with tech and crypto.
The one concentration to know about: tech and crypto show up in three sleeves (Income Book names, the upside fortresses, the convexity calls). That is why the ETF sleeve leans on GLD and keeps QQQ and IBIT small.
ASSUMPTIONS AND CAVEATS
High-level plan, not a ticket list. Every option leg must be re-priced live in RTH and margin-checked (whatIf) before placing anything.
Income Book at $3.50M is a linear scale of the $2.95M book: real contract counts round, and adding contracts to thin names (HOOD, SPCX) may not fill at the same premium.
Upside fortress quotes are the 2026-09-22 17:53 SGT pre-market chain export replayed through leap_builder offline; spots have since moved (for example META 769 and AMD 621 on 2026-09-24). Each name's implied vol is backed out of its own net debit for the scenario marks.
Convexity premiums are model prices anchored to one real quote per name (the BMNR quote is a month old), not live Jan-2029 quotes.
Run each option sleeve in an account funded to its own max loss, as the current plan does; the ETF shares and property should not be the collateral that keeps an option book alive.
ETF dividends are approximate trailing yields (SPY 1.1%, QQQ 0.5%). Cash interest is IBKR's benchmark minus 0.5% = 3.38%.
Correlations use 2 years of daily closes; the backtests use quarterly rebalancing and ignore costs.