| Underlying drawdown | 0% | -10% | -20% | -30% | -40% | -50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main $3.5M | $0 0% NLV | -$694,616 -20% NLV · 2.0x | -$1,244,781 -36% NLV · 1.8x | -$1,672,988 -48% NLV · 1.6x | -$2,007,978 -57% NLV · 1.4x | -$2,269,651 -65% NLV · 1.3x |
The x-multiplier is the NLV move divided by the underlying move (effective downside leverage). It falls as the drawdown deepens (2.0x at −10% → 1.3x at −50%): the hedge puts gain and the structure self-de-levers, which is the convexity that bends the curve flat.
| Underlying rally | +10% | +25% | +50% | +75% | +100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All capped | $597,009 +17% NLV · 1.7x | $597,009 +17% NLV · 0.7x | $597,009 +17% NLV · 0.3x | $597,009 +17% NLV · 0.2x | $597,009 +17% NLV · 0.2x |
| Half uncapped | $677,150 +19% NLV · 1.9x | $1,276,905 +36% NLV · 1.5x | $2,256,800 +64% NLV · 1.3x | $3,214,515 +92% NLV · 1.2x | $4,158,261 +119% NLV · 1.2x |
| Uncapped ceiling | $747,494 +21% NLV · 2.1x | $1,873,329 +54% NLV · 2.1x | $3,711,468 +106% NLV · 2.1x | $5,507,212 +157% NLV · 2.1x | $7,276,522 +208% NLV · 2.1x |
Cap-aware: a written contract's structure gain is limited near one CC cycle (~+8%); uncapped contracts run with no ceiling. This is the price of the income: at +50% the all-capped book keeps $597,009 of structure gain, the half-uncapped book $2,256,800, and the raw structures would make $3,711,468. At +100%: $597,009 / $4,158,261 / $7,276,522. Structure MTM only; the monthly income is separate and additive.
| Ticker (marks) | Type | Contracts (inc / unc) | Spot | Spot @ Expiry (+10%/yr) |
LC / SP / HP | Invested | Max Loss (vs budget) | Notional | Lev | Net Δ/sh (ex-CC) |
Structure P&L @ Expiry | Net Income / Mo | Net Income to Expiry |
Total P&L | ROI/yr IC | ROI/yr ML | ROI/yr Notl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
5 all capped |
1155.99 | 1,443.27 | 870 / 1150 / 920 | $142,650 | $257,650 budget $270,000 · 95% |
$577,995 | 4.05x | 1.09 | $143,986 | $9,367 keep 68% |
$261,570 | $405,556 | 122% | 68% | 30% |
| LMT 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
10 all capped |
537.24 | 670.75 | 440 / 520 / 430 | $95,050 | $185,050 budget $190,000 · 97% |
$537,240 | 5.65x | 1.08 | $135,702 | $6,085 keep 68% |
$169,924 | $305,626 | 138% | 71% | 24% |
| GOOG 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
16 all capped |
354.34 | 442.40 | 270 / 350 / 290 | $134,640 | $230,640 budget $230,000 · 100% |
$566,944 | 4.21x | 1.08 | $141,198 | $12,578 keep 75% |
$351,236 | $492,435 | 157% | 92% | 37% |
| AMZN 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
13 all capped |
260.30 | 324.99 | 195 / 260 / 215 | $83,200 | $141,700 budget $140,000 · 101% |
$338,390 | 4.07x | 1.08 | $85,785 | $6,705 keep 73% |
$187,239 | $273,024 | 141% | 83% | 35% |
| META 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
3 all capped |
743.08 | 927.75 | 400 / 590 / 510 | $101,715 | $125,715 budget $130,000 · 97% |
$222,924 | 2.19x | 1.08 | $56,609 | $10,402 keep 76% |
$290,476 | $347,085 | 147% | 119% | 67% |
| DELL 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
3 all capped |
571.76 | 713.85 | 300 / 400 / 320 | $80,280 | $104,280 budget $100,000 · 104% |
$171,528 | 2.14x | 1.03 | $43,875 | $7,573 keep 72% |
$211,467 | $255,342 | 137% | 105% | 64% |
| AMD 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
3 all capped |
609.00 | 760.35 | 270 / 420 / 350 | $101,250 | $122,250 budget $120,000 · 102% |
$182,700 | 1.80x | 1.07 | $45,854 | $9,911 keep 76% |
$276,762 | $322,615 | 137% | 113% | 76% |
| MU 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
5 all capped |
1033.72 | 1,290.62 | 500 / 730 / 590 | $266,325 | $336,325 budget $340,000 · 99% |
$516,862 | 1.94x | 1.06 | $128,986 | $32,191 keep 77% |
$898,901 | $1,027,887 | 166% | 131% | 85% |
| PLTR 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
12 all capped |
183.82 | 229.50 | 105 / 145 / 125 | $93,936 | $117,936 budget $120,000 · 98% |
$220,584 | 2.35x | 1.01 | $55,467 | $7,740 keep 71% |
$216,119 | $271,585 | 124% | 99% | 53% |
| HOOD 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
14 all capped |
121.96 | 152.27 | 55 / 90 / 75 | $88,886 | $109,886 budget $110,000 · 100% |
$170,744 | 1.92x | 1.04 | $47,291 | $8,085 keep 68% |
$225,764 | $273,055 | 132% | 107% | 69% |
| SPCX 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
12 all capped |
152.49 | 190.39 | 95 / 130 / 100 | $67,632 | $103,632 budget $100,000 · 104% |
$182,988 | 2.71x | 1.05 | $46,831 | $6,292 keep 74% |
$175,692 | $222,524 | 141% | 92% | 52% |
| IREN 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
27 all capped |
46.95 | 58.62 | 23 / 33 / 20 | $63,531 | $98,631 budget $100,000 · 99% |
$126,778 | 2.00x | 1.03 | $32,654 | $5,507 keep 54% |
$153,789 | $186,443 | 126% | 81% | 63% |
| SNDK 09-22 |
PIONEER rented hedge |
2 all capped |
1766.51 | 2,205.52 | 1400 / 1900 / 910 | $46,460 | $244,460 budget $150,000 · 163% |
$353,302 | 7.60x | 1.07 | $114,643 | $19,291 keep 70% |
$538,674 | $653,317 | 604% | 115% | 79% |
| JPM 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
14 all capped |
352.25 | 439.79 | 290 / 350 / 285 | $86,660 | $177,660 budget $180,000 · 99% |
$493,150 | 5.69x | 1.12 | $123,045 | $5,258 keep 68% |
$146,830 | $269,876 | 134% | 65% | 23% |
| XOM 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
30 all capped |
157.50 | 196.64 | 120 / 145 / 125 | $111,120 | $171,120 budget $170,000 · 101% |
$472,500 | 4.25x | 1.04 | $118,804 | $8,855 keep 68% |
$247,271 | $366,075 | 141% | 92% | 33% |
| GLD 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
26 all capped |
395.87 | 494.24 | 265 / 395 / 340 | $339,950 | $482,950 budget $480,000 · 101% |
$1,029,249 | 3.03x | 1.22 | $256,083 | $16,827 keep 74% |
$469,860 | $725,943 | 92% | 65% | 30% |
| XBI 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
25 all capped |
158.30 | 197.64 | 115 / 158 / 129 | $107,400 | $179,900 budget $180,000 · 100% |
$395,750 | 3.68x | 1.14 | $99,200 | $7,496 keep 68% |
$209,322 | $308,522 | 123% | 74% | 33% |
| CAT 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
4 all capped |
812.53 | 1,014.46 | 510 / 720 / 610 | $120,220 | $164,220 budget $160,000 · 103% |
$325,012 | 2.70x | 1.10 | $81,563 | $6,298 keep 68% |
$175,854 | $257,416 | 92% | 67% | 34% |
| ALL CAPPED (18 fortresses) | 224 224 inc / 0 unc |
$2,130,905 | $3,354,005 budget $3,270,000 · 103% | $6,884,641 | — | — | $1,757,576 | $186,463 | $5,206,750 | $6,964,325 | 140% | 89% | 43% | ||||
| Ticker (marks) | Type | Contracts (inc / unc) | Spot | Spot @ Expiry (+10%/yr) |
LC / SP / HP | Invested | Max Loss (vs budget) | Notional | Lev | Net Δ/sh (ex-CC) |
Structure P&L @ Expiry | Net Income / Mo | Net Income to Expiry |
Total P&L | ROI/yr IC | ROI/yr ML | ROI/yr Notl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
5 2 inc / 3 unc |
1155.99 | 1,443.27 | 870 / 1150 / 920 | $142,650 | $257,650 budget $270,000 · 95% |
$577,995 | 4.05x | 1.09 | $143,986 | $2,473 keep 68% |
$69,043 | $213,029 | 64% | 36% | 16% |
| LMT 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
10 5 inc / 5 unc |
537.24 | 670.75 | 440 / 520 / 430 | $95,050 | $185,050 budget $190,000 · 97% |
$537,240 | 5.65x | 1.08 | $135,702 | $2,597 keep 68% |
$72,515 | $208,217 | 94% | 48% | 17% |
| GOOG 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
16 8 inc / 8 unc |
354.34 | 442.40 | 270 / 350 / 290 | $134,640 | $230,640 budget $230,000 · 100% |
$566,944 | 4.21x | 1.08 | $141,198 | $5,198 keep 75% |
$145,159 | $286,357 | 91% | 53% | 22% |
| AMZN 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
13 6 inc / 7 unc |
260.30 | 324.99 | 195 / 260 / 215 | $83,200 | $141,700 budget $140,000 · 101% |
$338,390 | 4.07x | 1.08 | $85,785 | $2,238 keep 73% |
$62,500 | $148,285 | 77% | 45% | 19% |
| META 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
3 1 inc / 2 unc |
743.08 | 927.75 | 400 / 590 / 510 | $101,715 | $125,715 budget $130,000 · 97% |
$222,924 | 2.19x | 1.08 | $56,609 | $3,211 keep 76% |
$89,661 | $146,270 | 62% | 50% | 28% |
| DELL 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
3 1 inc / 2 unc |
571.76 | 713.85 | 300 / 400 / 320 | $80,280 | $104,280 budget $100,000 · 104% |
$171,528 | 2.14x | 1.03 | $43,875 | $2,281 keep 72% |
$63,694 | $107,570 | 58% | 44% | 27% |
| AMD 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
3 1 inc / 2 unc |
609.00 | 760.35 | 270 / 420 / 350 | $101,250 | $122,250 budget $120,000 · 102% |
$182,700 | 1.80x | 1.07 | $45,854 | $3,121 keep 76% |
$87,158 | $133,012 | 56% | 47% | 31% |
| MU 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
5 2 inc / 3 unc |
1033.72 | 1,290.62 | 500 / 730 / 590 | $266,325 | $336,325 budget $340,000 · 99% |
$516,862 | 1.94x | 1.06 | $128,986 | $12,329 keep 77% |
$344,272 | $473,258 | 76% | 60% | 39% |
| PLTR 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
12 6 inc / 6 unc |
183.82 | 229.50 | 105 / 145 / 125 | $93,936 | $117,936 budget $120,000 · 98% |
$220,584 | 2.35x | 1.01 | $55,467 | $3,413 keep 71% |
$95,297 | $150,764 | 69% | 55% | 29% |
| HOOD 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
14 7 inc / 7 unc |
121.96 | 152.27 | 55 / 90 / 75 | $88,886 | $109,886 budget $110,000 · 100% |
$170,744 | 1.92x | 1.04 | $47,291 | $3,730 keep 68% |
$104,145 | $151,435 | 73% | 59% | 38% |
| SPCX 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
12 6 inc / 6 unc |
152.49 | 190.39 | 95 / 130 / 100 | $67,632 | $103,632 budget $100,000 · 104% |
$182,988 | 2.71x | 1.05 | $46,831 | $2,882 keep 74% |
$80,490 | $127,321 | 81% | 53% | 30% |
| IREN 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
27 13 inc / 14 unc |
46.95 | 58.62 | 23 / 33 / 20 | $63,531 | $98,631 budget $100,000 · 99% |
$126,778 | 2.00x | 1.03 | $32,654 | $2,474 keep 54% |
$69,083 | $101,737 | 69% | 44% | 34% |
| SNDK 09-22 |
PIONEER rented hedge |
2 1 inc / 1 unc |
1766.51 | 2,205.52 | 1400 / 1900 / 910 | $46,460 | $244,460 budget $150,000 · 163% |
$353,302 | 7.60x | 1.07 | $114,643 | $9,267 keep 70% |
$258,776 | $373,419 | 345% | 66% | 45% |
| JPM 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
14 7 inc / 7 unc |
352.25 | 439.79 | 290 / 350 / 285 | $86,660 | $177,660 budget $180,000 · 99% |
$493,150 | 5.69x | 1.12 | $123,045 | $2,213 keep 68% |
$61,798 | $184,843 | 92% | 45% | 16% |
| XOM 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
30 15 inc / 15 unc |
157.50 | 196.64 | 120 / 145 / 125 | $111,120 | $171,120 budget $170,000 · 101% |
$472,500 | 4.25x | 1.04 | $118,804 | $4,013 keep 68% |
$112,067 | $230,871 | 89% | 58% | 21% |
| GLD 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
26 13 inc / 13 unc |
395.87 | 494.24 | 265 / 395 / 340 | $339,950 | $482,950 budget $480,000 · 101% |
$1,029,249 | 3.03x | 1.22 | $256,083 | $7,618 keep 74% |
$212,720 | $468,803 | 59% | 42% | 20% |
| XBI 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
25 12 inc / 13 unc |
158.30 | 197.64 | 115 / 158 / 129 | $107,400 | $179,900 budget $180,000 · 100% |
$395,750 | 3.68x | 1.14 | $99,200 | $2,935 keep 68% |
$81,945 | $181,145 | 72% | 43% | 20% |
| CAT 09-22 |
BALANCED rented hedge |
4 2 inc / 2 unc |
812.53 | 1,014.46 | 510 / 720 / 610 | $120,220 | $164,220 budget $160,000 · 103% |
$325,012 | 2.70x | 1.10 | $81,563 | $2,789 keep 68% |
$77,871 | $159,434 | 57% | 42% | 21% |
| HALF UNCAPPED (18 fortresses) | 224 108 inc / 116 unc |
$2,130,905 | $3,354,005 budget $3,270,000 · 103% | $6,884,641 | — | — | $1,757,576 | $74,782 | $2,088,193 | $3,845,769 | 77% | 49% | 24% | ||||
| Attack | Main $3.5M crossover |
|---|---|
| Base, flat vol | NONE |
| Crash-vol ramp (vol ~2x at -30%, skew-aware) | NONE |
| Ramp + house margin hike x1.6 | NONE |
| Ramp + house margin hike x2.0 | NONE |
| Ramp + house margin hike x3.0 | NONE |
| Ramp + GLD decorrelation fail (beta forced to 1.0) | NONE |
| t+12mo decay (LEAPS aged 1yr, hedges rolled) + ramp + hike x2 | NONE |
| ~$100k PM-floor race (NLV below the portfolio-margin floor) | not within −60% |