Portfolio Plan Portfolio 3.5M Crypto Convexity Recommendations Crash Liquidation

PORTFOLIO 3.5M, ONE ACCOUNT (MAIN), 18 FORTRESSES, ALL CAPPED vs HALF UNCAPPED

Live IBKR marks 2026-09-22 SGT via fortress_v28 --live (--risk sized, Jan-2029 LEAPS; run dir PORTFOLIO_3_5M) · horizon to LEAPS expiry ~2.3 yr · sibling: 3-account plan

SNAPSHOT, MAIN $3.5M (shared by both scenarios)

Everything in ONE account: the 15 Main names from the 3-account plan plus GLD and XBI (moved in from Joint) plus CAT (new industrial decorrelator; LMT was already in Main and stays). Each name was sized by fortress_v28 --risk to a max-loss budget so the book lands at ML 0.96x cash, the calibration the Margin & Liquidation Field Guide uses for "cannot be force-liquidated". The structures, max loss, invested capital, notional and the whole liquidation analysis are identical in both scenarios; only how many contracts carry a covered call differs, so only income and the rally ceiling differ.
Invested / Max Loss
$2,130,905
ML $3,354,005 = 0.96x cash · NLV $3,500,000
Notional Exposure
$6.88M
2.0x on $3.5M
Structure P&L @ Expiry
$1,757,576
all legs at +10%/yr drift, ~2.3 yr
Idle cash
$1,369,095
$3,856/mo @ 3.38% (bench 3.88% −0.5%)
Hedge rent / yr
$205,652
billed on ALL contracts in both scenarios
Liquidation Crossover
none (survives >-95%)
ML ≤ cash · crash-vol, TIMS-race
All capped: income / mo
$190,319
65%/yr on cash · total P&L $6,964,325
Half uncapped: income / mo
$78,638
27%/yr on cash · total P&L $3,845,769
Cost of keeping half uncapped
$111,681/mo
59% of the all-capped income, $1,340,172/yr
What it buys (structure gain at +50%)
$2,256,800
vs $597,009 all capped · ceiling $3,711,468

BOOK COMPOSITION BY THEME

Cash 17%Gold 12%Energy 6%Financials 6%Healthcare 12%Semis 13%AI & Software 18%Crypto & Fintech 4%Defense 7%Industrials 4%
Exposure (notional)
$6.88M notl · $1.37M cash
Cash 39%Gold 10%Semis 12%AI & Software 14%Crypto & Fintech 4%Industrials 3%Healthcare 7%Energy 3%
Capital (NLV)
$3.50M NLV · 39% cash
Semis AI & Software Crypto & Fintech Space Defense Industrials Healthcare Financials Energy Gold Cash
Left: market exposure (leveraged notional by theme). Right: the same dollars un-leveraged: deployed invested capital by theme plus idle cash, summing to the $3.5M NLV, so the grey Cash slice is its TRUE share of capital (39% of the account, earning ~$3,856/mo at 3.38%).

MARK-TO-MARKET vs DRAWDOWN (same in both scenarios)

Unrealized P&L if every underlying is haircut the same % (instantaneous shock, crash-vol adjusted: IV rises as price falls, which lifts the long hedge puts and adds to short-put liability). Structure legs only (LC + SP + HP); income CCs expire worthless into a selloff and are not counted, so the real cushion is slightly better. The account is not force-liquidated anywhere in this range (crossover none (survives >-95%)), so these are paper drawdowns the book rides, not liquidation events.
0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-$2.5M-$2.2M-$2.0M-$1.8M-$1.5M-$1.2M-$1.0M-$750k-$500k-$250k$0Mark-to-market P&L ($), Main $3.5M (same in both scenarios)
Underlying drawdown0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%
Main $3.5M$0
0% NLV
-$694,616
-20% NLV · 2.0x
-$1,244,781
-36% NLV · 1.8x
-$1,672,988
-48% NLV · 1.6x
-$2,007,978
-57% NLV · 1.4x
-$2,269,651
-65% NLV · 1.3x

The x-multiplier is the NLV move divided by the underlying move (effective downside leverage). It falls as the drawdown deepens (2.0x at −10% → 1.3x at −50%): the hedge puts gain and the structure self-de-levers, which is the convexity that bends the curve flat.

MARK-TO-MARKET vs RALLY (+10% to +100%), where the two scenarios part ways

Mark-to-market GAIN on the same structures as every underlying rallies. A written contract is capped by its covered call near one cycle; an uncapped contract runs free. Red = all capped, blue = half uncapped, pale = the uncapped ceiling.
+0%+20%+40%+60%+80%+100%$0$250k$500k$750k$1.0M$1.2M$1.5M$1.8M$2.0M$2.2M$2.5M$2.8M$3.0M$3.2M$3.5M$3.8M$4.0M$4.2M$4.5M$4.8M$5.0M$5.2M$5.5M$5.8M$6.0M$6.2M$6.5M$6.8M$7.0M$7.2M$7.5MStructure gain on a rally ($), Main $3.5M
▬ All capped   ▬ Half uncapped   ▬ Uncapped ceiling
Underlying rally+10%+25%+50%+75%+100%
All capped$597,009
+17% NLV · 1.7x
$597,009
+17% NLV · 0.7x
$597,009
+17% NLV · 0.3x
$597,009
+17% NLV · 0.2x
$597,009
+17% NLV · 0.2x
Half uncapped$677,150
+19% NLV · 1.9x
$1,276,905
+36% NLV · 1.5x
$2,256,800
+64% NLV · 1.3x
$3,214,515
+92% NLV · 1.2x
$4,158,261
+119% NLV · 1.2x
Uncapped ceiling$747,494
+21% NLV · 2.1x
$1,873,329
+54% NLV · 2.1x
$3,711,468
+106% NLV · 2.1x
$5,507,212
+157% NLV · 2.1x
$7,276,522
+208% NLV · 2.1x

Cap-aware: a written contract's structure gain is limited near one CC cycle (~+8%); uncapped contracts run with no ceiling. This is the price of the income: at +50% the all-capped book keeps $597,009 of structure gain, the half-uncapped book $2,256,800, and the raw structures would make $3,711,468. At +100%: $597,009 / $4,158,261 / $7,276,522. Structure MTM only; the monthly income is separate and additive.

TABLE 1, ALL CAPPED: every contract writes a covered call

Maximum income. Net income = gross CC on ALL contracts x each ticker's graded keep rate, minus the hedge rent on all contracts. The Max Loss column shows each name against the budget it was given (v28 packs whole contracts to just past the budget; where dropping one landed closer it was trimmed: LMT, PLTR, HOOD, JPM, XBI, IREN); SNDK is held at 2 contracts by decision, above its $150k budget.
All capped: Income / Month (CC + cash)
$190,319
CC $186,463 + cash int $3,856 · 224 written / 0 uncapped
All capped: Total P&L at Expiry
$6,964,325
structure gains + net income · 85%/yr on cash
Income ROI on cash ($3.5M)
65%/yr
on Invested 107% · on Max Loss 68%
Hedge coverage
11.9x
kept CC $2,443,206/yr vs rent $205,652/yr
Ticker
(marks)
TypeContracts
(inc / unc)
SpotSpot @ Expiry
(+10%/yr)
LC / SP / HPInvestedMax Loss
(vs budget)
NotionalLevNet Δ/sh
(ex-CC)
Structure P&L
@ Expiry
Net Income
/ Mo
Net Income
to Expiry
Total P&LROI/yr
IC
ROI/yr
ML
ROI/yr
Notl
LLY
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
5
all capped
1155.99 1,443.27 870 / 1150 / 920 $142,650 $257,650
budget $270,000 · 95%
$577,995 4.05x 1.09 $143,986 $9,367
keep 68%
$261,570 $405,556 122% 68% 30%
LMT
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
10
all capped
537.24 670.75 440 / 520 / 430 $95,050 $185,050
budget $190,000 · 97%
$537,240 5.65x 1.08 $135,702 $6,085
keep 68%
$169,924 $305,626 138% 71% 24%
GOOG
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
16
all capped
354.34 442.40 270 / 350 / 290 $134,640 $230,640
budget $230,000 · 100%
$566,944 4.21x 1.08 $141,198 $12,578
keep 75%
$351,236 $492,435 157% 92% 37%
AMZN
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
13
all capped
260.30 324.99 195 / 260 / 215 $83,200 $141,700
budget $140,000 · 101%
$338,390 4.07x 1.08 $85,785 $6,705
keep 73%
$187,239 $273,024 141% 83% 35%
META
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
3
all capped
743.08 927.75 400 / 590 / 510 $101,715 $125,715
budget $130,000 · 97%
$222,924 2.19x 1.08 $56,609 $10,402
keep 76%
$290,476 $347,085 147% 119% 67%
DELL
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
3
all capped
571.76 713.85 300 / 400 / 320 $80,280 $104,280
budget $100,000 · 104%
$171,528 2.14x 1.03 $43,875 $7,573
keep 72%
$211,467 $255,342 137% 105% 64%
AMD
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
3
all capped
609.00 760.35 270 / 420 / 350 $101,250 $122,250
budget $120,000 · 102%
$182,700 1.80x 1.07 $45,854 $9,911
keep 76%
$276,762 $322,615 137% 113% 76%
MU
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
5
all capped
1033.72 1,290.62 500 / 730 / 590 $266,325 $336,325
budget $340,000 · 99%
$516,862 1.94x 1.06 $128,986 $32,191
keep 77%
$898,901 $1,027,887 166% 131% 85%
PLTR
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
12
all capped
183.82 229.50 105 / 145 / 125 $93,936 $117,936
budget $120,000 · 98%
$220,584 2.35x 1.01 $55,467 $7,740
keep 71%
$216,119 $271,585 124% 99% 53%
HOOD
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
14
all capped
121.96 152.27 55 / 90 / 75 $88,886 $109,886
budget $110,000 · 100%
$170,744 1.92x 1.04 $47,291 $8,085
keep 68%
$225,764 $273,055 132% 107% 69%
SPCX
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
12
all capped
152.49 190.39 95 / 130 / 100 $67,632 $103,632
budget $100,000 · 104%
$182,988 2.71x 1.05 $46,831 $6,292
keep 74%
$175,692 $222,524 141% 92% 52%
IREN
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
27
all capped
46.95 58.62 23 / 33 / 20 $63,531 $98,631
budget $100,000 · 99%
$126,778 2.00x 1.03 $32,654 $5,507
keep 54%
$153,789 $186,443 126% 81% 63%
SNDK
09-22
PIONEER
rented hedge
2
all capped
1766.51 2,205.52 1400 / 1900 / 910 $46,460 $244,460
budget $150,000 · 163%
$353,302 7.60x 1.07 $114,643 $19,291
keep 70%
$538,674 $653,317 604% 115% 79%
JPM
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
14
all capped
352.25 439.79 290 / 350 / 285 $86,660 $177,660
budget $180,000 · 99%
$493,150 5.69x 1.12 $123,045 $5,258
keep 68%
$146,830 $269,876 134% 65% 23%
XOM
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
30
all capped
157.50 196.64 120 / 145 / 125 $111,120 $171,120
budget $170,000 · 101%
$472,500 4.25x 1.04 $118,804 $8,855
keep 68%
$247,271 $366,075 141% 92% 33%
GLD
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
26
all capped
395.87 494.24 265 / 395 / 340 $339,950 $482,950
budget $480,000 · 101%
$1,029,249 3.03x 1.22 $256,083 $16,827
keep 74%
$469,860 $725,943 92% 65% 30%
XBI
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
25
all capped
158.30 197.64 115 / 158 / 129 $107,400 $179,900
budget $180,000 · 100%
$395,750 3.68x 1.14 $99,200 $7,496
keep 68%
$209,322 $308,522 123% 74% 33%
CAT
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
4
all capped
812.53 1,014.46 510 / 720 / 610 $120,220 $164,220
budget $160,000 · 103%
$325,012 2.70x 1.10 $81,563 $6,298
keep 68%
$175,854 $257,416 92% 67% 34%
ALL CAPPED (18 fortresses) 224
224 inc / 0 unc
$2,130,905$3,354,005
budget $3,270,000 · 103%
$6,884,641 $1,757,576 $186,463 $5,206,750 $6,964,325 140%89%43%

TABLE 2, HALF UNCAPPED: half the contracts write, half run free

Same structures, same max loss, same hedge bill (rent is charged on ALL contracts, premium is credited only on the written half, so this costs MORE than half the income). Odd counts round the written side down (3 ct = 1 written / 2 free; 5 ct = 2 / 3). What it buys is in the rally chart above: the uncapped half keeps its convexity on a melt-up.
Half uncapped: Income / Month (CC + cash)
$78,638
CC $74,782 + cash int $3,856 · 108 written / 116 uncapped
Half uncapped: Total P&L at Expiry
$3,845,769
structure gains + net income · 47%/yr on cash
Income ROI on cash ($3.5M)
27%/yr
on Invested 44% · on Max Loss 28%
Hedge coverage
5.4x
kept CC $1,103,034/yr vs rent $205,652/yr
Ticker
(marks)
TypeContracts
(inc / unc)
SpotSpot @ Expiry
(+10%/yr)
LC / SP / HPInvestedMax Loss
(vs budget)
NotionalLevNet Δ/sh
(ex-CC)
Structure P&L
@ Expiry
Net Income
/ Mo
Net Income
to Expiry
Total P&LROI/yr
IC
ROI/yr
ML
ROI/yr
Notl
LLY
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
5
2 inc / 3 unc
1155.99 1,443.27 870 / 1150 / 920 $142,650 $257,650
budget $270,000 · 95%
$577,995 4.05x 1.09 $143,986 $2,473
keep 68%
$69,043 $213,029 64% 36% 16%
LMT
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
10
5 inc / 5 unc
537.24 670.75 440 / 520 / 430 $95,050 $185,050
budget $190,000 · 97%
$537,240 5.65x 1.08 $135,702 $2,597
keep 68%
$72,515 $208,217 94% 48% 17%
GOOG
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
16
8 inc / 8 unc
354.34 442.40 270 / 350 / 290 $134,640 $230,640
budget $230,000 · 100%
$566,944 4.21x 1.08 $141,198 $5,198
keep 75%
$145,159 $286,357 91% 53% 22%
AMZN
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
13
6 inc / 7 unc
260.30 324.99 195 / 260 / 215 $83,200 $141,700
budget $140,000 · 101%
$338,390 4.07x 1.08 $85,785 $2,238
keep 73%
$62,500 $148,285 77% 45% 19%
META
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
3
1 inc / 2 unc
743.08 927.75 400 / 590 / 510 $101,715 $125,715
budget $130,000 · 97%
$222,924 2.19x 1.08 $56,609 $3,211
keep 76%
$89,661 $146,270 62% 50% 28%
DELL
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
3
1 inc / 2 unc
571.76 713.85 300 / 400 / 320 $80,280 $104,280
budget $100,000 · 104%
$171,528 2.14x 1.03 $43,875 $2,281
keep 72%
$63,694 $107,570 58% 44% 27%
AMD
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
3
1 inc / 2 unc
609.00 760.35 270 / 420 / 350 $101,250 $122,250
budget $120,000 · 102%
$182,700 1.80x 1.07 $45,854 $3,121
keep 76%
$87,158 $133,012 56% 47% 31%
MU
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
5
2 inc / 3 unc
1033.72 1,290.62 500 / 730 / 590 $266,325 $336,325
budget $340,000 · 99%
$516,862 1.94x 1.06 $128,986 $12,329
keep 77%
$344,272 $473,258 76% 60% 39%
PLTR
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
12
6 inc / 6 unc
183.82 229.50 105 / 145 / 125 $93,936 $117,936
budget $120,000 · 98%
$220,584 2.35x 1.01 $55,467 $3,413
keep 71%
$95,297 $150,764 69% 55% 29%
HOOD
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
14
7 inc / 7 unc
121.96 152.27 55 / 90 / 75 $88,886 $109,886
budget $110,000 · 100%
$170,744 1.92x 1.04 $47,291 $3,730
keep 68%
$104,145 $151,435 73% 59% 38%
SPCX
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
12
6 inc / 6 unc
152.49 190.39 95 / 130 / 100 $67,632 $103,632
budget $100,000 · 104%
$182,988 2.71x 1.05 $46,831 $2,882
keep 74%
$80,490 $127,321 81% 53% 30%
IREN
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
27
13 inc / 14 unc
46.95 58.62 23 / 33 / 20 $63,531 $98,631
budget $100,000 · 99%
$126,778 2.00x 1.03 $32,654 $2,474
keep 54%
$69,083 $101,737 69% 44% 34%
SNDK
09-22
PIONEER
rented hedge
2
1 inc / 1 unc
1766.51 2,205.52 1400 / 1900 / 910 $46,460 $244,460
budget $150,000 · 163%
$353,302 7.60x 1.07 $114,643 $9,267
keep 70%
$258,776 $373,419 345% 66% 45%
JPM
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
14
7 inc / 7 unc
352.25 439.79 290 / 350 / 285 $86,660 $177,660
budget $180,000 · 99%
$493,150 5.69x 1.12 $123,045 $2,213
keep 68%
$61,798 $184,843 92% 45% 16%
XOM
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
30
15 inc / 15 unc
157.50 196.64 120 / 145 / 125 $111,120 $171,120
budget $170,000 · 101%
$472,500 4.25x 1.04 $118,804 $4,013
keep 68%
$112,067 $230,871 89% 58% 21%
GLD
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
26
13 inc / 13 unc
395.87 494.24 265 / 395 / 340 $339,950 $482,950
budget $480,000 · 101%
$1,029,249 3.03x 1.22 $256,083 $7,618
keep 74%
$212,720 $468,803 59% 42% 20%
XBI
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
25
12 inc / 13 unc
158.30 197.64 115 / 158 / 129 $107,400 $179,900
budget $180,000 · 100%
$395,750 3.68x 1.14 $99,200 $2,935
keep 68%
$81,945 $181,145 72% 43% 20%
CAT
09-22
BALANCED
rented hedge
4
2 inc / 2 unc
812.53 1,014.46 510 / 720 / 610 $120,220 $164,220
budget $160,000 · 103%
$325,012 2.70x 1.10 $81,563 $2,789
keep 68%
$77,871 $159,434 57% 42% 21%
HALF UNCAPPED (18 fortresses) 224
108 inc / 116 unc
$2,130,905$3,354,005
budget $3,270,000 · 103%
$6,884,641 $1,757,576 $74,782 $2,088,193 $3,845,769 77%49%24%

STRESS BATTERY vs THE MARGIN & LIQUIDATION FIELD GUIDE (module_risk_cockpit, crash-vol + skew, 1% steps to −95%, run 2026-09-22; identical for both scenarios)

  • ML-to-cash check (the guide's #1 predictor): ML $3,354,005 / $3.5M = 0.96x, below 1.0x, so the cash−ML floor is $145,995: even an all-to-zero leaves that much equity, and the ~$100k portfolio-margin cliff is unreachable.
  • Worst simulated path: NLV bottoms at $881,341 (at -94%), against the $145,995 floor. The requirement shrinks as spot falls (TIMS race), so equity and requirement diverge rather than converge.
  • AttackMain $3.5M crossover
    Base, flat volNONE
    Crash-vol ramp (vol ~2x at -30%, skew-aware)NONE
    Ramp + house margin hike x1.6NONE
    Ramp + house margin hike x2.0NONE
    Ramp + house margin hike x3.0NONE
    Ramp + GLD decorrelation fail (beta forced to 1.0)NONE
    t+12mo decay (LEAPS aged 1yr, hedges rolled) + ramp + hike x2NONE
    ~$100k PM-floor race (NLV below the portfolio-margin floor)not within −60%
  • Verdict: on every price path to −95%, under crash vol, a tripled house requirement, a GLD decorrelation failure and twelve months of decay, the account cannot be margin-called (8/8 attacks: NONE).
  • The rented-hedge asterisk, quantified: hedge rent $205,652/yr against kept CC premium of $2,443,206/yr all capped (11.9x coverage) or $1,103,034/yr half uncapped (5.4x); the guide's 2022 failure case had 0.7x. The rent must ALWAYS be paid and the hedges NEVER lapse; if they do, the true max loss is the full notional $6,884,641 and this whole page is void. Roll BEFORE expiry; dispose assigned stock same-day (the long puts are the disposal mechanism).
  • THE TWO TABLES ARE THE DIAL

  • Down: identical. Both scenarios carry the same LC / SP / HP legs, so the drawdown curve, the max loss, the liquidation battery and the hedge bill are the same. Capping changes nothing about how the book survives.
  • Up: the difference. All capped converts the upside convexity into current theta ($186,463/mo). Half uncapped forgoes $111,681/mo of that to keep half of every name's upside open: at +50%% the structures make $2,256,800 instead of $597,009 (ceiling $3,711,468).
  • Per name, in real time. The dial does not have to be set book-wide: write the ballast that cannot run and leave the names that can. The 3-account plan's smart split was exactly that; these two tables bracket it.
  • WHAT THIS PAGE SAYS, IN PLAIN ENGLISH

  • One account, one job. $3.5M of cash runs 18 fortresses. Roughly 39% of the cash ($1,369,095) never leaves the account: it is the idle reserve that makes ML ≤ cash true, and it earns the broker's idle-cash rate ($3,856/mo, benchmark 3.88% since the September 2026 FOMC hike) while doing that job.
  • Sizing was done by budget, not by conviction. Each name got a max-loss budget (the 3-account plan's weights scaled up 1.315x, CAT sized like LMT/XOM, then every budget rounded to the nearest $10k), and fortress_v28 chose the archetype and whole-contract count that fits it. Decisions layered on top: SNDK on PIONEER (v28's DIAMOND cost $28k more max loss per contract for less income) and held at 2 contracts so it can half-split; HOOD's keep rate uses the book-wide tape (68%) because its own 6-trade tape is a rally artifact (calls bought back as it ran), not a structural read.
  • What you get, all capped: $190,319/mo (CC + cash interest) = 65%/yr on the $3.5M. Half uncapped: $78,638/mo = 27%/yr. Either way $6,884,641 of market exposure (2.0x) with a defined worst case of $3,354,005 and a liquidation crossover of none (survives >-95%).
  • What changed vs the 3-account plan: GLD and XBI moved into Main (XBI is now a full 4-leg fortress rather than a LeapBuilder), CAT added as an industrial decorrelator, every name re-marked live today on Jan-2029 LEAPS, everything sized up ~1.3x. The $350k Joint reserve idea survives as the idle-cash buffer above.
  • ASSUMPTIONS AND CAVEATS

  • Marks are today's fortress_v28 --live run (2026-09-22). Pre-market frozen quotes for most of the book; re-price every leg live in RTH and price whatIf margin before ticketing.
  • The liquidation model uses module_risk_cockpit with a x1.22 hypothetical margin calibration (the live-account average). A real IBKR portfolio-margin book is usually treated MORE favorably, so this read is conservative.
  • Structure P&L is an at-expiry intrinsic value at a flat +10%/yr drift, entry tenors. Net deltas use each leg's stored IBKR delta, Black-Scholes off leg IV where missing. CC leg excluded from delta and structure P&L.
  • Income holds the v28 DTE-prorated figure times each ticker's graded keep rate (book tape); the keep factor absorbs escapes, not an IV collapse. CAT and XBI have no trade history of their own, and HOOD's is overridden, so those three use the book-wide tape (68%). ROI/yr is simple annualization, not CAGR.
  • Read-only hypothetical; nothing here places orders. Before ANY execution: re-price legs live in RTH and confirm in Risk Navigator.