FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $5,494/mo (53% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $1,406/mo
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $879,541 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| APP ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 1 | $319.19 | $603.93 | — | 1 × $352.50 25 Sep (7d) $110 cyc · $471/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14% | 🎯 1 × $342.50 25 Sep (7d) $225 cyc · $964/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 30% | 1 × $335 25 Sep (7d) $370 cyc · $1,586/mo 75% survhist 84% · T:50%hist 44% | 1 × $325 25 Sep (7d) $630 cyc · $2,700/mo 61% survhist 65% · T:80%hist 67% | $2,598 | -$25,918 (202.5% IC) | 89.2% |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $19.14 | $17.33 BE | +10.4% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 32d ▲ UP +5.6% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 25 | $23.47 | $35.20 | 25 × $37.50 16 Oct (28d) $125 cyc · $134/mo 97% survhist 96% · T:6%hist 3% | 🎯 25 × $32.50 16 Oct (28d)alt tenor $300 cyc · $321/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 14% | 16 × $25 25 Sep (7d) $608 cyc · $2,606/mo 72% survhist 84% · T:57%hist 44% | 24 × $25 25 Sep (7d) $912 cyc · $3,909/mo 72% survhist 84% · T:57%hist 44% | 21 × $23.50 25 Sep (7d) $1,848 cyc · $7,920/mo 53% survhist 70% · T:99%hist 90% | $6,095 | -$6,455 (116.8% IC) | 50.0% |
| TOTAL (2) | 26 | following every 🎯 $525 cyc · $1,286/mo | $125 cyc · $134/mo 1 of 2 | $410 cyc · $793/mo | $833 cyc · $3,570/mo | $1,282 cyc · $5,494/mo | $2,478 cyc · $10,620/mo | $8,693 | -$32,373 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $134/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,884/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($7,768/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $134/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-25,062 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 15d left | 3-14d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-37.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (2.5σ) | $125 | $4,442 | +$29,342 | +$16,275 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (2.7σ) | $-2,219 | $4,051 | +$28,951 | +$16,275 |
| +5% | $39.38 (2.9σ) | $-4,562 | $3,660 | +$28,560 | +$16,275 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (2.9σ) | $-5,400 | $3,520 | +$28,420 | +$16,275 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $321/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,884/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($7,768/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $321/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,455 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 116.8% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 11.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-25,200 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 15d left | 3-14d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $32.17 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $32-32.74 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $32.74 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $32.50 (1.6σ) | $300 | $-5,795 | +$19,105 | +$3,950 |
| +2.5% | $33.31 (1.8σ) | $-1,731 | $-6,134 | +$18,766 | +$3,950 |
| +5% | $34.12 (1.9σ) | $-3,762 | $-6,473 | +$18,427 | +$3,950 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (2.9σ) | $-17,725 | $-8,805 | +$16,095 | +$3,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.48/sh | +$764 cycle +$1,372 [+$538…+$800] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$20,306 NOT cap gain +$4,594 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.65/sh | +$1,036 cycle +$1,644 [+$703…+$1,065] · 100% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$16,847 NOT cap gain +$8,053 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 9 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$467 cycle +$1,075 [+$89…+$445] · 83% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$17,417 NOT cap gain +$7,483 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.09/sh | +$137 cycle +$745 [-$191…+$95] · 37% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$18,788 NOT cap gain +$6,112 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$29 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.02/sh | -$28 cycle +$580 [-$547…-$109] · 19% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$12,705 NOT cap gain +$12,195 |
| budget: banked $608 debit $28 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$580 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $1,789/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,606/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,884/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($7,768/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,657/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,715 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 284.4% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 28.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-16,152 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $608 | $-21,070 | +$3,830 | +$544 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-392 | $-20,768 | +$4,132 | -$456 |
| +5% | $26.25 (1.0σ) | $-1,392 | $-20,467 | +$4,433 | -$1,456 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.9σ) | $-22,928 | $-21,811 | +$3,089 | -$9,056 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (24 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.48/sh | +$1,146 cycle +$2,058 [+$802…+$1,206] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$19,652 NOT cap gain +$5,248 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.65/sh | +$1,554 cycle +$2,466 [+$1,043…+$1,605] · 100% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$16,057 NOT cap gain +$8,843 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 9 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.29/sh | +$700 cycle +$1,612 [+$133…+$677] · 83% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$16,912 NOT cap gain +$7,988 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.09/sh | +$206 cycle +$1,118 [-$285…+$160] · 38% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$18,447 NOT cap gain +$6,453 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$29 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.02/sh | -$41 cycle +$871 [-$819…-$152] · 20% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$12,447 NOT cap gain +$12,453 |
| budget: banked $912 debit $41 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$871 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $2,684/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,909/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,884/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($7,768/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,914/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,573 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 426.7% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 42.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (24 ct) | $-24,228 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $912 | $-20,798 | +$4,102 | +$816 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-588 | $-20,996 | +$3,904 | -$684 |
| +5% | $26.25 (1.0σ) | $-2,088 | $-21,195 | +$3,705 | -$2,184 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.9σ) | $-34,392 | $-26,339 | -$1,439 | -$13,584 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (21 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.43/sh | +$909 cycle +$2,757 [+$489…+$669] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$22,065 NOT cap gain +$2,835 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$25 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.54/sh | +$1,124 cycle +$2,972 [+$461…+$779] · 95% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$18,663 NOT cap gain +$6,237 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 9 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$459 cycle +$2,307 [-$289…+$116] · 45% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$19,329 NOT cap gain +$5,571 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.04/sh | +$94 cycle +$1,942 [-$550…-$187] · 9% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$20,735 NOT cap gain +$4,165 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$28 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | -$0.67/sh | -$1,399 cycle +$449 [-$2,839…-$1,937] | 92% surv 92% | -$14,938 NOT cap gain +$9,962 |
| budget: banked $1,848 debit $1,399 (76% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$449 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $1,007/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,920/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,884/mo) | +104% |
| vs normal income ($7,768/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,943/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,726 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 411.3% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 40.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (21 ct) | $-21,199 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $23-24.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $23.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,848 | $-22,974 | +$1,926 | +$1,764 |
| +2.5% | $24.09 (≤1σ, normal week) | $614 | $-22,984 | +$1,916 | +$530 |
| +5% | $24.68 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-620 | $-22,994 | +$1,906 | -$704 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.9σ) | $-32,193 | $-26,741 | -$1,841 | -$13,986 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$352 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$3.50/sh | +$350 cycle +$460 [+$288…+$483] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$26,333 NOT cap gain +$4,147 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$373 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$2.37/sh | +$237 cycle +$347 [+$73…+$350] · 83% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$24,142 NOT cap gain +$6,338 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$361 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.16/sh | +$16 cycle +$126 [-$109…+$105] · 49% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$25,747 NOT cap gain +$4,733 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$383 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.18/sh | -$18 cycle +$92 [-$229…+$73] · 39% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$23,290 NOT cap gain +$7,190 |
| budget: banked $110 debit $18 (16% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$92 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $946/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $471/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,318/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($2,636/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $402/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,033 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 195.6% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 51.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-30,505 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $348.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $349-353.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $353.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $352.50 (1.4σ) | $110 | $-26,683 | +$3,797 | +$105 |
| +2.5% | $361.31 (1.8σ) | $-771 | $-26,588 | +$3,892 | -$776 |
| +5% | $370.12 (2.2σ) | $-1,652 | $-26,494 | +$3,986 | -$1,658 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (11.4σ) | $-23,440 | $-24,163 | +$6,317 | -$7,645 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$342 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$3.68/sh | +$368 cycle +$593 [+$285…+$462] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$27,307 NOT cap gain +$3,173 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$363 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$2.54/sh | +$254 cycle +$479 [+$62…+$332] · 82% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$25,117 NOT cap gain +$5,363 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$351 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.34/sh | +$34 cycle +$259 [-$112…+$93] · 46% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$26,721 NOT cap gain +$3,759 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$383 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$2.01/sh | -$201 cycle +$24 [-$476…-$154] · 11% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$23,358 NOT cap gain +$7,122 |
| budget: banked $225 debit $201 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $689/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $964/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,318/mo) | -27% |
| vs normal income ($2,636/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $895/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,918 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 202.5% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 53.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.8 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-30,507 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $339.07 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $339-345.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $345.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $342.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $225 | $-27,675 | +$2,805 | +$220 |
| +2.5% | $351.06 (1.4σ) | $-631 | $-27,583 | +$2,897 | -$636 |
| +5% | $359.62 (1.7σ) | $-1,488 | $-27,491 | +$2,989 | -$1,492 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (11.4σ) | $-24,325 | $-25,048 | +$5,432 | -$8,530 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$335 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$3.80/sh | +$380 cycle +$750 [+$264…+$412] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$27,980 NOT cap gain +$2,500 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$356 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$2.65/sh | +$265 cycle +$635 [+$23…+$271] · 78% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$25,791 NOT cap gain +$4,689 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$343 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.47/sh | +$47 cycle +$417 [-$136…+$51] · 35% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$27,393 NOT cap gain +$3,087 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$366 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.11/sh | +$11 cycle +$381 [-$281…+$2] · 25% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$24,938 NOT cap gain +$5,542 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$386 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$3.47/sh | -$347 cycle +$23 [-$729…-$385] · 1% credit | 88% surv 86% | -$23,082 NOT cap gain +$7,398 |
| budget: banked $370 debit $347 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $486/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,586/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,318/mo) | +20% |
| vs normal income ($2,636/mo) | 60% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,517/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,523 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 207.2% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 54.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-30,515 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $331.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $332-339.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $339.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $335.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $370 | $-28,360 | +$2,120 | +$365 |
| +2.5% | $343.37 (1.0σ) | $-467 | $-28,270 | +$2,210 | -$472 |
| +5% | $351.75 (1.4σ) | $-1,305 | $-28,181 | +$2,299 | -$1,310 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (11.4σ) | $-24,930 | $-25,653 | +$4,827 | -$9,135 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$325 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$3.95/sh | +$395 cycle +$1,025 [+$247…+$339] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$28,811 NOT cap gain +$1,669 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$346 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$2.77/sh | +$277 cycle +$907 [-$27…+$169] · 71% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$26,626 NOT cap gain +$3,854 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$333 | 2 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.62/sh | +$62 cycle +$692 [-$164…-$17] · 19% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$28,225 NOT cap gain +$2,255 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$356 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.25/sh | +$25 cycle +$655 [-$337…-$102] · 12% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$25,771 NOT cap gain +$4,709 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$386 | 16 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$4.39/sh | -$439 cycle +$191 [-$933…-$613] | 91% surv 90% | -$22,914 NOT cap gain +$7,566 |
| budget: banked $630 debit $439 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$191 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $344/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,318/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($2,636/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,631/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,263 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 213.0% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 56.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-30,550 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $321.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $322-332.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $332.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $325.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $630 | $-29,207 | +$1,273 | +$625 |
| +2.5% | $333.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-182 | $-29,120 | +$1,360 | -$187 |
| +5% | $341.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-995 | $-29,033 | +$1,447 | -$1,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (11.4σ) | $-25,670 | $-26,393 | +$4,087 | -$9,875 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| DELL | Main:1299 | 3x $595C 18 Sep 2026 (0d) | $587.99 | $598.53 | $2.90 | $2.90 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.01 OTM = 1.2% (0.2x a typical daily move). The $2.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,044 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $598.53 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $355C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $353.40 | $356.76 | $5.08 | $5.08 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.60 OTM = 0.5% (0.2x a typical daily move). The $5.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$857 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $28.50/sh BELOW the $383.50 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $14,251 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $356.76 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $355C at ~$4.75 ($2,375), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $357.5C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $353.40 | $358.96 | $4.05 | $4.05 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.10 OTM = 1.2% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $4.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,111 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $358.96 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 15x $357.5C at ~$3.77 ($5,662), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $187.5C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $182.78 | $189.17 | $4.45 | $4.45 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.72 OTM = 2.6% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $4.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,298 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $29.05/sh BELOW the $216.55 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $23,237 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $189.17 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 8x $187.5C at ~$4.36 ($3,490), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) | $353.40 | $359.26 | $11.18 | $11.18 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.60 OTM = 0.5% (0.2x a typical daily move). The $11.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $355C at ~$10.79 ($5,394), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $770C 21 Sep 2026 (3d) | $761.10 | $770.39 | $0.08 | $0.08 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.90 OTM = 1.2% (2.6x a typical daily move). The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$412 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $770.39 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) | $80.62 | $127.58 | $0.38 | $0.38 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 44.38 OTM = 55.0% (9.7x a typical daily move). The $0.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,267 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $127.58 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1x $1025C 21 Sep 2026 (3d) | $992.63 | $1,029.99 | $4.25 | $4.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.37 OTM = 3.3% (1.3x a typical daily move). The $4.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$494 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,029.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $345C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $335.57 | $346.44 | $1.17 | $1.17 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.43 OTM = 2.8% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $1.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$695 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $346.44 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $260C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $252.65 | $261.16 | $1.36 | $1.36 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.35 OTM = 2.9% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $1.36 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$556 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $261.16 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $92C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $86.74 | $92.65 | $0.45 | $0.45 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.26 OTM = 6.1% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $0.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,210 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $92.65 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $195C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $182.78 | $195.92 | $2.38 | $2.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.22 OTM = 6.7% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $2.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,182 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $195.92 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $165C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $154.14 | $166.40 | $1.12 | $1.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.86 OTM = 7.0% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $1.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$675 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $166.40 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $50C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $44.64 | $50.40 | $0.48 | $0.48 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.36 OTM = 12.0% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $0.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$695 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $50.40 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $50C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $44.64 | $50.39 | $0.48 | $0.48 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.36 OTM = 12.0% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $0.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$688 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $50.39 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $31.5C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $28.11 | $31.82 | $0.22 | $0.22 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.39 OTM = 12.1% (2.6x a typical daily move). The $0.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$410 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $31.82 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $26.5C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $23.64 | $26.66 | $0.26 | $0.26 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.86 OTM = 12.1% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $0.26 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,100 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $26.66 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $75C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) | $64.84 | $75.68 | $0.28 | $0.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.16 OTM = 15.7% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $0.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$380 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $75.68 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $232.5C 2 Oct 2026 (14d) | $219.93 | $233.94 | $1.21 | $1.21 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.57 OTM = 5.7% (3.2x a typical daily move). The $1.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,392 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $233.94 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) | $104.18 | $112.23 | $1.25 | $1.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.82 OTM = 6.5% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $1.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $130C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) | $109.44 | $132.73 | $1.99 | $1.99 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 20.56 OTM = 18.8% (4.6x a typical daily move). The $1.99 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,342 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $132.73 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) | $44.64 | $55.88 | $1.21 | $1.21 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.36 OTM = 23.2% (4.4x a typical daily move). The $1.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) | $44.64 | $55.88 | $1.21 | $1.21 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.36 OTM = 23.2% (4.4x a typical daily move). The $1.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMD | Neville:0865 | 2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (35d) | $547.49 | $593.17 | $21.95 | $21.95 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.51 OTM = 5.9% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $21.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,624 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $593.17 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (35d) | $1,667.27 | $2,085.25 | $54.55 | $54.55 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 282.73 OTM = 17.0% (3.8x a typical daily move). The $54.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,520 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $2,085.25 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (35d) | $992.63 | $1,252.67 | $15.40 | $15.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 217.37 OTM = 21.9% (5.8x a typical daily move). The $15.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$21,312 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,252.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (35d) | $992.63 | $1,284.32 | $11.43 | $11.43 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 257.37 OTM = 25.9% (6.7x a typical daily move). The $11.43 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,854 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,284.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (63d) | $188.80 | $224.53 | $6.45 | $6.45 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.20 OTM = 16.5% (5.1x a typical daily move). The $6.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (63d) | $141.54 | $180.96 | $8.25 | $8.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.46 OTM = 20.1% (4.4x a typical daily move). The $8.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (63d) | $141.54 | $180.95 | $8.25 | $8.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.46 OTM = 20.1% (4.4x a typical daily move). The $8.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (91d) | $399.29 | $476.90 | $3.35 | $3.35 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 70.71 OTM = 17.7% (10.8x a typical daily move). The $3.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,847 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $476.90 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $25.23 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $25.23 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 30.7% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $25.23 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.7% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $13.64 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 34.2% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $35.88 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.1% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $44.84 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $12.26 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 26.8% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $12.26 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 70.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $334.64 | 5x $345C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| AMD | Neville:0865 | 2 | $489.91 | 2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (35d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $260C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $188C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $195C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $92C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) |
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3 | $562.50 | 3x $595C 18 Sep 2026 (0d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (91d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $358C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $355C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $32C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $130C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (28d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $50C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $50C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (63d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (63d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1 | $792.36 | 1x $1025C 21 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (35d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (35d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $232C 2 Oct 2026 (14d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (63d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $75C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (35d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $165C 25 Sep 2026 (7d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $770C 21 Sep 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 187 | 56% | 62% | +6pp |
| 60-70% | 366 | 64% | 61% | -3pp |
| 70-80% | 475 | 76% | 83% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 619 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 1027 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2674 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 10 graded weeks; last week 1.04x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 166 real buyback(s) recorded · 83 roll(s), net +$0.59/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 83 real rolls: buyback $6.77/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.59/sh (58 of 83 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.