FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $6,230/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $2,944/mo
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $594,517 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| RKLB ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 6 | $70.49 | $147.28 | 6 × $150 16 Oct (24d) $24 cyc · $30/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3% | 6 × $78 25 Sep (3d) $168 cyc · $1,680/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% | 5 × $78 25 Sep (3d) $140 cyc · $1,400/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% | 🎯 6 × $77 25 Sep (3d) $216 cyc · $2,160/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 25% | 5 × $74 25 Sep (3d) $430 cyc · $4,300/mo 76% survhist 84% · T:50%hist 39% | $2,602 | -$41,955 (263.4% IC) | 108.9% |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $20.75 | $17.33 BE | +19.7% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 28d Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $26.57 | $35.05 | 25 × $40 16 Oct (24d) $175 cyc · $219/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:8%hist 3% | 25 × $30 25 Sep (3d) $175 cyc · $1,750/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% | 🎯 24 × $29.50 25 Sep (3d) $264 cyc · $2,640/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 25% | 11 × $28 25 Sep (3d) $407 cyc · $4,070/mo 74% survhist 84% · T:53%hist 44% | 22 × $28 25 Sep (3d) $814 cyc · $8,140/mo 74% survhist 84% · T:53%hist 44% | $6,095 | -$13,062 (236.4% IC) | 31.9% |
| TOTAL (2) | 31 | following every 🎯 $480 cyc · $4,800/mo | $199 cyc · $249/mo | $343 cyc · $3,430/mo | $404 cyc · $4,040/mo | $623 cyc · $6,230/mo | $1,244 cyc · $12,440/mo | $8,697 | -$55,017 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $219/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,904/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($7,809/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $219/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-18,387 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 13d left | 3-12d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (2.3σ) | $175 | $10,770 | +$28,982 | +$12,600 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (2.5σ) | $-2,325 | $10,415 | +$28,627 | +$12,600 |
| +5% | $42.00 (2.6σ) | $-4,825 | $10,060 | +$28,272 | +$12,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.61/sh | +$1,517 cycle +$1,692 [+$999…+$1,852] · 93% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$9,164 NOT cap gain +$9,049 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$33 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.39/sh | +$983 cycle +$1,158 [-$39…+$1,334] · 74% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$2,340 NOT cap gain +$15,872 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$400 cycle +$575 [-$764…+$749] · 58% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$777 NOT cap gain +$17,435 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$31 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$164 cycle +$339 [-$822…+$457] · 51% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$7,449 NOT cap gain +$10,763 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$35 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.06/sh | -$158 cycle +$17 [-$1,484…+$178] · 32% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$809 SAFE cap gain +$19,021 |
| budget: banked $175 debit $158 (90% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,174/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,904/mo) | -55% |
| vs normal income ($7,809/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,456 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 225.5% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 22.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-18,500 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $30-30.18 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $30.18 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $30.00 (1.7σ) | $175 | $-10,680 | +$7,532 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $30.75 (2.0σ) | $-1,700 | $-10,946 | +$7,266 | -$1,775 |
| +5% | $31.50 (2.4σ) | $-3,575 | $-11,213 | +$7,000 | -$3,650 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-24,100 | $-14,127 | +$4,085 | -$12,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (24 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.59/sh | +$1,415 cycle +$1,679 [+$964…+$1,701] · 95% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$10,246 NOT cap gain +$7,967 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$33 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.36/sh | +$857 cycle +$1,121 [+$31…+$1,133] · 76% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$3,446 NOT cap gain +$14,766 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.13/sh | +$306 cycle +$570 [-$650…+$546] · 52% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$1,852 NOT cap gain +$16,361 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$31 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$121 cycle +$385 [-$646…+$316] · 45% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$8,473 NOT cap gain +$9,740 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$35 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.09/sh | -$217 cycle +$47 [-$1,308…-$13] · 24% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$230 NOT cap gain +$17,982 |
| budget: banked $264 debit $217 (82% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$47 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $2,875/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,640/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,904/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($7,809/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,645/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,062 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 236.4% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 23.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (24 ct) | $-17,748 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.50 (1.4σ) | $264 | $-11,661 | +$6,552 | +$192 |
| +2.5% | $30.24 (1.8σ) | $-1,506 | $-11,849 | +$6,364 | -$1,578 |
| +5% | $30.98 (2.1σ) | $-3,276 | $-12,037 | +$6,176 | -$3,348 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-24,240 | $-14,735 | +$3,477 | -$13,008 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.54/sh | +$594 cycle +$1,001 [+$296…+$643] · 91% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$14,102 NOT cap gain +$4,110 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$31 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.38/sh | +$415 cycle +$822 [-$72…+$416] · 70% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$7,996 NOT cap gain +$10,217 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$40 cycle +$447 [-$534…-$1] · 25% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$5,154 NOT cap gain +$13,058 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$414 [-$449…-$16] · 23% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$11,621 NOT cap gain +$6,591 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.16/sh | -$181 cycle +$226 [-$818…-$244] · 6% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$3,230 NOT cap gain +$14,983 |
| budget: banked $407 debit $181 (45% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$226 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $1,094/mo while parked; 14 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,070/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,904/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($7,809/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,144/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,351 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 133.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 13.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $-8,085 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $28-28.43 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.43 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $28.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $407 | $-14,696 | +$3,516 | +$374 |
| +2.5% | $28.70 (1.0σ) | $-363 | $-13,965 | +$4,248 | -$396 |
| +5% | $29.40 (1.4σ) | $-1,133 | $-13,233 | +$4,979 | -$1,166 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-12,474 | $-9,053 | +$9,159 | -$7,326 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (22 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.54/sh | +$1,187 cycle +$2,001 [+$595…+$1,303] · 91% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$13,135 NOT cap gain +$5,078 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$31 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.38/sh | +$831 cycle +$1,645 [-$131…+$850] · 71% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$7,206 NOT cap gain +$11,006 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$79 cycle +$893 [-$1,056…+$25] · 27% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$4,740 NOT cap gain +$13,472 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$15 cycle +$829 [-$891…-$11] · 24% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$11,240 NOT cap gain +$6,972 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.16/sh | -$362 cycle +$452 [-$1,625…-$459] · 6% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$3,037 NOT cap gain +$15,175 |
| budget: banked $814 debit $362 (45% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$452 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $2,187/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,140/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,904/mo) | +108% |
| vs normal income ($7,809/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,156/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,701 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 266.1% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 26.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (22 ct) | $-16,170 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $28-28.43 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.43 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $28.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $814 | $-14,322 | +$3,890 | +$748 |
| +2.5% | $28.70 (1.0σ) | $-726 | $-14,361 | +$3,852 | -$792 |
| +5% | $29.40 (1.4σ) | $-2,266 | $-14,399 | +$3,813 | -$2,332 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.3σ) | $-24,948 | $-16,379 | +$1,833 | -$14,652 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $30/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,044/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($4,087/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-222/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-48,480 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 13d left | 3-12d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $148.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $148-150.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $150.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $150.00 (5.6σ) | $24 | $1,689 | +$50,163 | +$30,018 |
| +2.5% | $153.75 (5.9σ) | $-2,226 | $1,804 | +$50,278 | +$30,018 |
| +5% | $157.50 (6.1σ) | $-4,476 | $1,919 | +$50,393 | +$30,018 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.48/sh | +$886 cycle +$1,054 [+$690…+$1,027] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$42,684 NOT cap gain +$5,790 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.40/sh | +$238 cycle +$406 [-$245…+$365] · 60% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$37,335 NOT cap gain +$11,139 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.19/sh | +$115 cycle +$283 [-$309…+$217] · 51% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$41,242 NOT cap gain +$7,232 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,680/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,044/mo) | -18% |
| vs normal income ($4,087/mo) | 41% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,428/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,403 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 259.9% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 59.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.1 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-48,486 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (1.5σ) | $168 | $-43,570 | +$4,904 | +$162 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.9σ) | $-1,002 | $-43,511 | +$4,963 | -$1,008 |
| +5% | $81.90 (2.3σ) | $-2,172 | $-43,451 | +$5,023 | -$2,178 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (14.2σ) | $-37,962 | $-41,626 | +$6,848 | -$13,038 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.48/sh | +$738 cycle +$878 [+$568…+$831] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$42,859 NOT cap gain +$5,615 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.35/sh | +$677 cycle +$817 [+$369…+$770] · 92% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$39,446 NOT cap gain +$9,028 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$88 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.40/sh | +$198 cycle +$338 [-$240…+$268] · 59% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$37,402 NOT cap gain +$11,072 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.19/sh | +$96 cycle +$236 [-$267…+$149] · 46% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$41,288 NOT cap gain +$7,186 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,044/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($4,087/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,151/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$34,502 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 216.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 49.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-40,405 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (1.5σ) | $140 | $-43,597 | +$4,877 | +$135 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.9σ) | $-835 | $-43,343 | +$5,131 | -$840 |
| +5% | $81.90 (2.3σ) | $-1,810 | $-43,088 | +$5,386 | -$1,815 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (14.2σ) | $-31,635 | $-39,453 | +$9,021 | -$10,865 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$77 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.48/sh | +$889 cycle +$1,105 [+$679…+$990] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$43,264 NOT cap gain +$5,210 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$83 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.36/sh | +$813 cycle +$1,029 [+$440…+$901] · 92% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$39,865 NOT cap gain +$8,609 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$87 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.40/sh | +$240 cycle +$456 [-$277…+$306] · 58% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$37,915 NOT cap gain +$10,559 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.20/sh | +$119 cycle +$335 [-$298…+$174] · 48% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$41,820 NOT cap gain +$6,654 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,160/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,044/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($4,087/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,908/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,955 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 263.4% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 60.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.3 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-48,492 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-77.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $77.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.00 (1.3σ) | $216 | $-44,153 | +$4,321 | +$210 |
| +2.5% | $78.92 (1.7σ) | $-939 | $-44,094 | +$4,380 | -$945 |
| +5% | $80.85 (2.1σ) | $-2,094 | $-44,035 | +$4,439 | -$2,100 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (14.2σ) | $-38,514 | $-42,178 | +$6,296 | -$13,590 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.49/sh | +$746 cycle +$1,176 [+$522…+$784] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$45,084 NOT cap gain +$3,390 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$80 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.35/sh | +$677 cycle +$1,107 [+$301…+$677] · 90% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$41,678 NOT cap gain +$6,796 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.41/sh | +$204 cycle +$634 [-$282…+$155] · 46% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$39,629 NOT cap gain +$8,845 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.22/sh | +$108 cycle +$538 [-$290…+$63] · 33% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$43,508 NOT cap gain +$4,966 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$89 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.36/sh | -$182 cycle +$248 [-$775…-$271] · 5% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$36,861 NOT cap gain +$11,613 |
| budget: banked $430 debit $182 (42% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$248 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $829/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,044/mo) | +110% |
| vs normal income ($4,087/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,051/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$36,212 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 227.3% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 51.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-40,410 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $73.26 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-74.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $74.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $74.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $430 | $-45,830 | +$2,644 | +$425 |
| +2.5% | $75.85 (1.1σ) | $-495 | $-45,588 | +$2,886 | -$500 |
| +5% | $77.70 (1.4σ) | $-1,420 | $-45,346 | +$3,128 | -$1,425 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (14.2σ) | $-33,345 | $-41,163 | +$7,311 | -$12,575 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) | $357.06 | $359.26 | $12.90 | $10.84 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $2.06/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks GOOG 1:1); only $10.84 is live theta (~$5,420). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its CC-SS ($357.06), so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Gate on price: hold while GOOG is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $360, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $355C at ~$13.14 ($6,569), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $345C 25 Sep 2026 (3d) | $341.30 | $346.44 | $2.01 | $2.01 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.70 OTM = 1.1% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $2.01 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$695 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $346.44 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $345C at ~$2.12 ($1,058), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $92C 25 Sep 2026 (3d) | $88.99 | $92.65 | $0.47 | $0.47 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.01 OTM = 3.4% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $0.47 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,210 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $3.58/sh BELOW the $95.58 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $7,169 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $91.54 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 20x $92C at ~$0.71 ($1,425), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $31.5C 25 Sep 2026 (3d) | $30.00 | $31.82 | $0.42 | $0.42 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.50 OTM = 5.0% (1.0x a typical daily move). The $0.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$410 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $31.82 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 15x $31.5C at ~$0.38 ($562), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $232.5C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $228.67 | $233.94 | $3.30 | $3.30 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.83 OTM = 1.7% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $3.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,392 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $233.94 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $232.5C at ~$2.83 ($2,830), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (31d) | $1,892.20 | $2,085.25 | $144.95 | $144.95 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 57.80 OTM = 3.1% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $144.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,520 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $2,085.25 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 1x $1950C at ~$150.30 ($15,030), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (59d) | $169.02 | $180.96 | $20.62 | $20.62 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.98 OTM = 0.6% (0.1x a typical daily move). The $20.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (59d) | $169.02 | $180.95 | $20.62 | $20.62 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.98 OTM = 0.6% (0.1x a typical daily move). The $20.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $170C at ~$20.53 ($20,525), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $165C 25 Sep 2026 (3d) | $153.12 | $166.40 | $0.46 | $0.46 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.88 OTM = 7.8% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $0.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$675 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $166.40 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3x $625C 25 Sep 2026 (3d) | $572.05 | $630.00 | $1.64 | $1.64 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 52.95 OTM = 9.3% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $1.64 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,484 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $630.00 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1x $1150C 28 Sep 2026 (6d) | $1,059.95 | $1,154.16 | $4.90 | $4.90 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 90.05 OTM = 8.5% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $4.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$411 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,154.16 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $782C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $774.62 | $783.17 | $2.92 | $2.92 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.38 OTM = 1.0% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $2.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,348 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $783.17 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $370C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $357.06 | $372.00 | $3.08 | $3.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.94 OTM = 3.6% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $3.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$975 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $372.00 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $375C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $357.06 | $376.41 | $2.04 | $2.04 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.94 OTM = 5.0% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $2.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,043 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $376.41 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $275C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $258.01 | $275.62 | $0.83 | $0.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.99 OTM = 6.6% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $0.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$287 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $275.62 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $370C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $326.54 | $371.70 | $2.08 | $2.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 43.46 OTM = 13.3% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $2.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$165 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $371.70 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $100C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $87.68 | $100.71 | $1.15 | $1.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.32 OTM = 14.1% (2.8x a typical daily move). The $1.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$328 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.71 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10x $145C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $125.19 | $145.81 | $0.84 | $0.84 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.81 OTM = 15.8% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $0.84 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$762 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $145.81 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $48.37 | $58.38 | $0.46 | $0.46 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.63 OTM = 19.9% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $0.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$665 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $58.38 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $48.37 | $58.35 | $0.46 | $0.46 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.63 OTM = 19.9% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $0.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$606 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $58.35 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5x $115C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) | $95.66 | $115.92 | $0.81 | $0.81 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.34 OTM = 20.2% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $0.81 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$433 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $115.92 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) | $107.08 | $112.23 | $2.04 | $2.04 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.92 OTM = 3.7% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $2.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $130C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) | $122.30 | $132.73 | $5.67 | $5.67 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.70 OTM = 6.3% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $5.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,342 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $132.73 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) | $48.37 | $55.88 | $1.99 | $1.99 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.63 OTM = 13.7% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $1.99 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) | $48.37 | $55.88 | $1.99 | $1.99 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.63 OTM = 13.7% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $1.99 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) | $26.63 | $32.84 | $0.65 | $0.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.87 OTM = 22.0% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $0.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,931 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $32.84 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (31d) | $1,059.95 | $1,284.32 | $23.30 | $23.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 190.05 OTM = 17.9% (4.5x a typical daily move). The $23.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,854 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,284.32 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $220C 30 Oct 2026 (38d) | $199.57 | $228.42 | $11.70 | $11.70 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 20.43 OTM = 10.2% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $11.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,694 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $228.42 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (38d) | $199.57 | $245.47 | $6.88 | $6.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 40.43 OTM = 20.3% (4.4x a typical daily move). The $6.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,548 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $245.47 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (59d) | $192.68 | $224.53 | $8.50 | $8.50 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 27.32 OTM = 14.2% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $8.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (59d) | $1,059.95 | $1,376.43 | $30.05 | $30.05 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 290.05 OTM = 27.4% (6.8x a typical daily move). The $30.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,188 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,376.43 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $445C 18 Dec 2026 (87d) | $397.82 | $451.11 | $5.25 | $5.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 47.18 OTM = 11.9% (7.9x a typical daily move). The $5.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,062 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $451.11 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $28.05 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $28.05 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 23.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $28.05 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 57.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $14.80 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 28.6% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $34.96 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 37.7% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $48.63 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 31.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $13.38 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 20.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $13.38 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 67.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $334.64 | 5x $345C 25 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $275C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $370C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $220C 30 Oct 2026 (38d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (38d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $92C 25 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5 | $87.00 | 5x $115C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $100C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3 | $562.50 | 3x $625C 25 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $445C 18 Dec 2026 (87d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $375C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $370C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $32C 25 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10 | $114.95 | 10x $145C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $130C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (24d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (59d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (59d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1 | $792.36 | 1x $1150C 28 Sep 2026 (6d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (59d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (31d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $232C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (59d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (31d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $165C 25 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $782C 2 Oct 2026 (10d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 198 | 56% | 61% | +5pp |
| 60-70% | 378 | 64% | 62% | -2pp |
| 70-80% | 505 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 662 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 1085 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2828 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 11 graded weeks; last week 0.65x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 166 real buyback(s) recorded · 83 roll(s), net +$0.59/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 83 real rolls: buyback $6.77/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.59/sh (58 of 83 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.