FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $10,710/mo (53% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $636/mo
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $973,979 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri | 20 | $85.39 | $95.14 | 20 × $95.50 30 Oct (25d) $1,800 cyc · $2,160/mo 85% survhist 87% · T:31%hist 31% | 20 × $91 9 Oct (4d) $300 cyc · $2,250/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% | 17 × $89 9 Oct (4d) $595 cyc · $4,462/mo 82% survhist 87% · T:37%hist 31% | 🎯 18 × $88.50 9 Oct (4d) $900 cyc · $6,750/mo 78% survhist 83% · T:44%hist 40% | 17 × $86.50 9 Oct (4d) $1,785 cyc · $13,388/mo 62% survhist 65% · T:78%hist 68% | $5,116 | -$11,056 (19.5% IC) | 11.4% |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| AAPL RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $335.18 | $334.64 BE | +0.2% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $20.45 | $17.33 BE | +18.0% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| HIMS Main:1299 | 15 | $29.62 | $17.47 BE | +69.5% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 15d Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $23.08 | $34.99 | 25 × $35 16 Oct (11d) $25 cyc · $68/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3% | 25 × $27 9 Oct (4d) $175 cyc · $1,312/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:12%hist 13% | 🎯 23 × $25 9 Oct (4d) $345 cyc · $2,588/mo 82% survhist 87% · T:37%hist 31% | 16 × $24.50 9 Oct (4d) $528 cyc · $3,960/mo 76% survhist 83% · T:50%hist 40% | 24 × $24 9 Oct (4d) $1,032 cyc · $7,740/mo 69% survhist 65% · T:65%hist 56% | $8,726 | -$22,635 (409.7% IC) | 51.6% |
| TOTAL (2) | 45 | following every 🎯 $1,245 cyc · $9,338/mo | $1,825 cyc · $2,228/mo | $475 cyc · $3,562/mo | $940 cyc · $7,050/mo | $1,428 cyc · $10,710/mo | $2,817 cyc · $21,128/mo | $13,842 | -$33,691 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,160/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,409/mo) | -66% |
| vs normal income ($12,818/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,160/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-20,000 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 13d left | 3-12d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $94.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $95-96.60 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.60 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $95.50 (1.1σ) | $1,800 | $2,663 | +$22,263 | +$4,600 |
| +2.5% | $97.89 (1.3σ) | $-2,975 | $2,720 | +$22,320 | +$4,600 |
| +5% | $100.28 (1.6σ) | $-7,750 | $2,777 | +$22,377 | +$4,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$93 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$1.04/sh | +$2,086 cycle +$2,386 [+$1,040…+$2,935] · 88% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$2,601 NOT cap gain +$16,999 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$91 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.29/sh | +$581 cycle +$881 [-$369…+$1,319] · 63% credit | 66% surv 51% | -$7,364 NOT cap gain +$12,236 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$96 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.07/sh | +$140 cycle +$440 [-$1,115…+$904] · 50% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$1,525 SAFE cap gain +$21,125 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$92 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.02/sh | +$48 cycle +$348 [-$973…+$760] · 48% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$6,663 NOT cap gain +$12,937 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,409/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($12,818/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,984 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 14.1% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 7.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-19,750 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $90.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $90-91.22 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $91.22 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $91.00 (1.5σ) | $300 | $-7,945 | +$11,655 | -$900 |
| +2.5% | $93.27 (2.1σ) | $-4,250 | $-7,891 | +$11,709 | -$5,450 |
| +5% | $95.55 (2.7σ) | $-8,800 | $-7,836 | +$11,764 | -$5,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$91 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.96/sh | +$1,632 cycle +$2,227 [+$197…+$1,945] · 80% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$6,628 NOT cap gain +$12,972 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$89 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.27/sh | +$466 cycle +$1,061 [-$825…+$704] · 47% credit | 66% surv 51% | -$11,052 NOT cap gain +$8,548 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$93 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.15/sh | +$257 cycle +$852 [-$1,359…+$419] · 37% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$2,943 NOT cap gain +$16,657 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$90 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.01/sh | +$13 cycle +$608 [-$1,351…+$191] · 30% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$10,270 NOT cap gain +$9,330 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.27/sh | -$454 cycle +$141 [-$2,211…-$358] · 19% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$1,813 NOT cap gain +$17,787 |
| budget: banked $595 debit $454 (76% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$141 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $4,102/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,462/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,409/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($12,818/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,762/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,847 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 17.3% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 9.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-17,170 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $88.11 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $88-89.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $89.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $89.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $595 | $-11,518 | +$8,082 | -$425 |
| +2.5% | $91.22 (1.5σ) | $-3,187 | $-10,797 | +$8,803 | -$4,207 |
| +5% | $93.45 (2.1σ) | $-6,970 | $-10,077 | +$9,523 | -$7,990 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$90 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.94/sh | +$1,691 cycle +$2,591 [+$104…+$1,778] · 77% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$7,336 NOT cap gain +$12,264 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$88 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.27/sh | +$487 cycle +$1,387 [-$930…+$543] · 43% credit | 66% surv 51% | -$11,799 NOT cap gain +$7,801 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$93 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.13/sh | +$238 cycle +$1,138 [-$1,581…+$212] · 32% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$3,728 NOT cap gain +$15,872 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$89 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.00/sh | +$7 cycle +$907 [-$1,508…-$1] · 25% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$11,044 NOT cap gain +$8,556 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.44/sh | -$785 cycle +$115 [-$2,860…-$883] · 11% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$1,838 NOT cap gain +$17,762 |
| budget: banked $900 debit $785 (87% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$115 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $3,887/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,409/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($12,818/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,950/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,056 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 19.5% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 11.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-18,135 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $87.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $88-89.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $89.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $88.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $900 | $-12,285 | +$7,315 | -$180 |
| +2.5% | $90.71 (1.4σ) | $-3,082 | $-11,790 | +$7,810 | -$4,162 |
| +5% | $92.92 (2.0σ) | $-7,065 | $-11,294 | +$8,306 | -$8,145 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.1σ) | $-7,920 | $-11,188 | +$8,412 | -$9,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$88 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,461 cycle +$3,246 [-$676…+$966] · 60% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$10,669 NOT cap gain +$8,931 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$86 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.25/sh | +$433 cycle +$2,218 [-$1,466…-$12] · 25% credit | 66% surv 51% | -$14,955 NOT cap gain +$4,645 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$87 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.19/sh | +$323 cycle +$2,108 [-$1,606…-$135] · 21% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$14,843 NOT cap gain +$4,757 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$91 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.06/sh | +$102 cycle +$1,887 [-$2,308…-$518] · 13% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$6,968 NOT cap gain +$12,632 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$95 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$1.03/sh | -$1,746 cycle +$39 [-$4,764…-$2,502] | 83% surv 81% | -$1,053 NOT cap gain +$18,547 |
| budget: banked $1,785 debit $1,746 (98% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$39 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,141/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,388/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,409/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($12,818/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,688/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,907 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 22.7% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 12.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-17,468 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $85.64 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $86-88.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $88.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $86.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,785 | $-15,388 | +$4,212 | +$765 |
| +2.5% | $88.66 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,891 | $-14,688 | +$4,912 | -$2,911 |
| +5% | $90.83 (1.4σ) | $-5,568 | $-13,987 | +$5,613 | -$6,588 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.1σ) | $-9,945 | $-13,153 | +$6,447 | -$10,965 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 23 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$0.18/sh | +$451 cycle +$476 | 68% surv 54% | -$122 NOT cap gain +$25,091 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$37 | 30 Oct 2026 | 20d left | +$0.05/sh | +$118 cycle +$143 | 71% surv 63% | +$3,511 SAFE cap gain +$28,723 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $68/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,784/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($7,568/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $68/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-25,250 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (3.6σ) | $25 | $-573 | +$24,640 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (3.9σ) | $-2,162 | $-953 | +$24,259 | +$0 |
| +5% | $36.75 (4.1σ) | $-4,350 | $-1,334 | +$23,879 | +$0 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.0σ) | $-11,750 | $-2,622 | +$22,591 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$27 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.32/sh | +$791 cycle +$966 [+$417…+$1,309] · 84% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$16,152 NOT cap gain +$9,061 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.19/sh | +$467 cycle +$642 [+$50…+$969] · 76% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$15,608 NOT cap gain +$9,604 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.20/sh | +$490 cycle +$665 [-$158…+$1,046] · 68% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$10,423 NOT cap gain +$14,790 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,312/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,784/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($7,568/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,312/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,803 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 358.4% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 35.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-25,263 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $26.73 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.00 (2.0σ) | $175 | $-16,943 | +$8,270 | +$150 |
| +2.5% | $27.67 (2.3σ) | $-1,512 | $-17,236 | +$7,976 | -$1,537 |
| +5% | $28.35 (2.6σ) | $-3,200 | $-17,530 | +$7,683 | -$3,225 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.3σ) | $-31,600 | $-22,472 | +$2,741 | -$19,850 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (23 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.40/sh | +$911 cycle +$1,256 [-$83…+$1,043] · 72% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$16,025 NOT cap gain +$9,188 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.28/sh | +$641 cycle +$986 [-$99…+$816] · 71% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$20,260 NOT cap gain +$4,952 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.14/sh | +$332 cycle +$677 [-$467…+$474] · 49% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$19,701 NOT cap gain +$5,511 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.10/sh | +$230 cycle +$575 [-$904…+$306] · 39% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$14,641 NOT cap gain +$10,572 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,588/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,784/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($7,568/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,593/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,635 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 409.7% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 40.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (23 ct) | $-23,449 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $345 | $-20,901 | +$4,312 | +$322 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (1.3σ) | $-1,092 | $-21,048 | +$4,165 | -$1,115 |
| +5% | $26.25 (1.6σ) | $-2,530 | $-21,194 | +$4,018 | -$2,553 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.3σ) | $-33,488 | $-25,300 | -$87 | -$22,678 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$26 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.37/sh | +$589 cycle +$1,117 [-$63…+$573] · 72% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$17,190 NOT cap gain +$8,023 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.27/sh | +$431 cycle +$959 [-$58…+$438] · 71% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$21,312 NOT cap gain +$3,900 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.13/sh | +$215 cycle +$743 [-$304…+$208] · 45% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$20,661 NOT cap gain +$4,552 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.08/sh | +$124 cycle +$652 [-$613…+$93] · 33% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$15,589 NOT cap gain +$9,623 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$28 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.21/sh | -$329 cycle +$199 [-$1,149…-$376] · 7% credit | 80% surv 78% | -$13,977 NOT cap gain +$11,235 |
| budget: banked $528 debit $329 (62% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$199 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $1,429/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,960/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,784/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($7,568/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,985/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,258 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 294.3% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 29.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-16,192 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-24.86 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.86 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $528 | $-21,743 | +$3,469 | +$512 |
| +2.5% | $25.11 (1.0σ) | $-452 | $-21,458 | +$3,754 | -$468 |
| +5% | $25.73 (1.3σ) | $-1,432 | $-21,174 | +$4,039 | -$1,448 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.3σ) | $-23,808 | $-18,910 | +$6,303 | -$16,288 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (24 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$25 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.73/sh | +$1,760 cycle +$2,792 [+$713…+$1,618] · 92% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$18,620 NOT cap gain +$6,593 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.26/sh | +$625 cycle +$1,657 [-$278…+$505] · 60% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$21,654 NOT cap gain +$3,558 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 16 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.12/sh | +$298 cycle +$1,330 [-$662…+$149] · 32% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$21,114 NOT cap gain +$4,099 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 30 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.06/sh | +$133 cycle +$1,165 [-$1,236…-$118] · 21% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$16,116 NOT cap gain +$9,096 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$28 | 23 Oct 2026 | 16d left | -$0.37/sh | -$890 cycle +$142 [-$2,404…-$1,196] | 84% surv 82% | -$15,075 NOT cap gain +$10,137 |
| budget: banked $1,032 debit $890 (86% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$142 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $2,207/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,740/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,784/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($7,568/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,743/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,347 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 458.8% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 45.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (24 ct) | $-24,492 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.76 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-24.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,032 | $-22,280 | +$2,933 | +$1,008 |
| +2.5% | $24.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-408 | $-22,481 | +$2,732 | -$432 |
| +5% | $25.20 (1.1σ) | $-1,848 | $-22,682 | +$2,531 | -$1,872 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.3σ) | $-36,672 | $-28,014 | -$2,801 | -$25,392 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (11d) | $110.20 | $112.23 | $1.86 | $1.86 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.80 OTM = 0.7% (0.4x a typical daily move). The $1.86 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 12x $111C at ~$2.12 ($2,538), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (46d) | $161.74 | $180.96 | $12.35 | $12.35 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.26 OTM = 5.1% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $12.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (46d) | $161.74 | $180.95 | $12.35 | $12.35 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.26 OTM = 5.1% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $12.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $170C at ~$12.26 ($12,262), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1125C 5 Oct 2026 (0d) | $1,063.28 | $1,129.00 | $0.12 | $0.12 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 61.72 OTM = 5.8% (1.0x a typical daily move). The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,977 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,129.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $49C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) | $40.58 | $49.27 | $0.06 | $0.06 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.42 OTM = 20.7% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $0.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$446 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $48.76 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $49C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) | $40.58 | $49.27 | $0.06 | $0.06 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.42 OTM = 20.7% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $0.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$448 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $48.76 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $780C 7 Oct 2026 (2d) | $770.59 | $780.81 | $0.23 | $0.23 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.41 OTM = 1.2% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $0.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$918 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $780.81 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $260C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) | $251.11 | $261.15 | $0.67 | $0.67 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.89 OTM = 3.5% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $0.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$548 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $261.15 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $295C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) | $279.40 | $298.00 | $2.53 | $2.53 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.60 OTM = 5.6% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $2.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$295 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $298.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3x $592.5C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) | $555.13 | $599.49 | $3.40 | $3.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 37.37 OTM = 6.7% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $3.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,083 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $599.49 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1875C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) | $1,728.72 | $1,892.00 | $9.65 | $9.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 146.28 OTM = 8.5% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $9.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,695 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,892.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10x $125C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) | $113.34 | $126.01 | $0.34 | $0.34 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.66 OTM = 10.3% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $0.34 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$963 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $126.01 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5x $91C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) | $82.35 | $92.06 | $0.42 | $0.42 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.65 OTM = 10.5% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $0.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$503 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $92.06 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $28C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) | $23.07 | $28.15 | $0.08 | $0.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.93 OTM = 21.4% (3.2x a typical daily move). The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$958 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $27.86 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (11d) | $340.51 | $359.26 | $2.06 | $2.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.49 OTM = 4.3% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $2.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (11d) | $340.51 | $362.52 | $1.31 | $1.31 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.49 OTM = 5.7% (3.1x a typical daily move). The $1.31 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,712 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $362.52 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (11d) | $340.51 | $362.52 | $1.31 | $1.31 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.49 OTM = 5.7% (3.1x a typical daily move). The $1.31 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,237 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $362.52 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $90C 16 Oct 2026 (11d) | $72.83 | $90.63 | $0.30 | $0.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.17 OTM = 23.6% (4.7x a typical daily move). The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$346 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $90.63 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) | $237.51 | $252.15 | $1.99 | $1.99 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.49 OTM = 5.3% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $1.99 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,103 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $252.15 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $175C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) | $163.25 | $176.63 | $2.65 | $2.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.75 OTM = 7.2% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $2.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$788 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $176.63 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $215C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) | $186.46 | $218.75 | $2.30 | $2.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.54 OTM = 15.3% (3.8x a typical daily move). The $2.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$9,258 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $218.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $138C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) | $117.55 | $140.81 | $2.04 | $2.04 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 20.45 OTM = 17.4% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $2.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,382 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $140.81 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) | $1,063.28 | $1,261.73 | $5.12 | $5.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 186.72 OTM = 17.6% (5.3x a typical daily move). The $5.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,337 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,261.73 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $110C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) | $89.21 | $111.38 | $0.86 | $0.86 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 20.79 OTM = 23.3% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $0.86 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$667 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $111.38 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (46d) | $182.93 | $224.53 | $3.85 | $3.85 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 37.07 OTM = 20.3% (5.9x a typical daily move). The $3.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (46d) | $40.58 | $61.43 | $0.84 | $0.84 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.42 OTM = 47.9% (8.5x a typical daily move). The $0.84 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,758 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $61.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (46d) | $40.58 | $61.42 | $0.84 | $0.84 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.42 OTM = 47.9% (8.5x a typical daily move). The $0.84 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,746 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $61.42 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (74d) | $379.54 | $419.00 | $5.38 | $5.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 33.46 OTM = 8.8% (6.2x a typical daily move). The $5.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,949 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $419.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (74d) | $186.46 | $278.82 | $4.00 | $4.00 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 83.54 OTM = 44.8% (10.6x a typical daily move). The $4.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,020 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $278.82 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $26.48 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 50.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $26.48 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 27.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $26.48 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 59.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $12.27 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 40.8% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $32.27 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.5% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $48.65 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 31.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $10.89 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.0% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $10.89 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 73.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $260C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $295C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (74d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $215C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) |
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5 | $87.00 | 5x $91C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $110C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) |
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3 | $562.50 | 3x $592C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (74d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (11d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $360C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (11d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (11d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $360C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10 | $114.95 | 10x $125C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (11d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $138C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (46d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (46d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $49C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $49C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (46d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (46d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1125C 5 Oct 2026 (0d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (46d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $90C 16 Oct 2026 (11d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1875C 9 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $175C 23 Oct 2026 (18d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $780C 7 Oct 2026 (2d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 208 | 56% | 61% | +5pp |
| 60-70% | 392 | 64% | 62% | -2pp |
| 70-80% | 527 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 710 | 84% | 85% | +0pp |
| 90-100% | 1159 | 94% | 96% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 37% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2996 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.08x (W40) to 1.59x (W34) over 13 graded weeks; last week 0.08x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 167 real buyback(s) recorded · 84 roll(s), net +$0.58/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 84 real rolls: buyback $6.69/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.58/sh (58 of 84 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.