RESET · THE $1.3M INDEX + CASH
Built 2026-11-02 00:19 SGT on the Friday 30 Oct 2026 close · SPY / QQQ LEAPS from CBOE close quotes · history 1999-03-10 to 2026-10-30 (Yahoo) · part of
Portfolio Reset · read-only, zero IBKR, no orders
Your pick (5), now the plan: $800k cash, $350k shares + $150k ATM Dec '28 LEAPS, 70% SPY / 30% QQQ.
324 SPY shares ($245k)
8x SPY Dec '28 735C ($104k)
152 QQQ shares ($105k)
3x QQQ Dec '28 675C ($41k)
S&P −20%: -$166k (my mix -$144k, option 1 -$113k); +20%: +$229k (my mix +$184k, option 1 +$113k); a flat year: -$10k (my mix +$5k); 2008 low: -$323k (my mix -$297k). Typical 12 months +8.4%, 1 in 20 -16.5%. It is the most geared of the cash-heavy mixes: the same 70/30 split as my mix, with $50k more in LEAPS and $50k less in shares.Every share lot and LEAPS writes the weekly 0.25-delta call (Total Income tab).
In plain words- This $1.3M is the only ballast in the reset. The rest of the plan (the HBMAX income book and the crypto sleeve, $1.12M together) loses about $781k at S&P −20% on the Risk Cockpit grid. So the question is less "which earns more" than "how much of the next fall do you want this money to absorb".
- Option 1 vs option 2 is a straight dial: every $100k moved from cash to shares adds about $23k of loss at S&P −20% and the same gain at +20%, and costs about $3k a year of interest. Over every 12-month window since 1999 the median return is +6.5% (option 1) vs +9.5% (option 2); the worst is -17.3% vs -29.9%.
- LEAPS change the shape, not just the size. Swapping a fifth of option 1's shares for at-the-money Dec '28 calls (3a) gains about as much as option 2 when the market rises (+$205k vs +$181k at +20%), loses less in a deep bear (2008: -$309k vs -$421k), and keeps $793k in cash. The price is the calls' time value: about $31k a year if the market goes nowhere.
- My mix (4) is option 1 plus option 3, tilted to SPY: $800k cash, $400k shares + $100k ATM Dec '28 LEAPS, 70% SPY / 30% QQQ. In the two great bears it loses close to what option 1 loses (dot-com -$260k vs -$261k, 2008 -$297k vs -$255k) and far less than option 2 (-$483k, -$421k), with the upside of option 2 (+$184k vs +$181k at +20%) and $2,274/mo of interest on the cash. The 70/30 tilt is because your income book is already a Nasdaq bet: its names move 0.85 with QQQ.
- Whole portfolio at S&P −20%: about -$894k with option 1, -$962k with option 2, -$925k with my mix (the rest of the reset included).
- Model output from your own data and public prices, not licensed financial advice. Nothing on this page places an order.
1. $800k cash
$566k
cash $800k · shares $500k · LEAPS –
S&P-equivalent exposure $566k
interest + dividends $2,501/mo
2. $500k cash
$905k
cash $500k · shares $800k · LEAPS –
S&P-equivalent exposure $905k
interest + dividends $1,804/mo
3a. 1 + LEAPS
$878k
cash $793k · shares $400k · LEAPS $107k
S&P-equivalent exposure $878k
interest + dividends $2,431/mo
3b. 2 + LEAPS
$1.36M
cash $499k · shares $640k · LEAPS $161k
S&P-equivalent exposure $1.36M
interest + dividends $1,723/mo
4. Claude's mix
$791k
cash $807k · shares $400k · LEAPS $93k
S&P-equivalent exposure $791k
interest + dividends $2,503/mo
5. Your pick
$942k
cash $804k · shares $350k · LEAPS $146k
S&P-equivalent exposure $942k
interest + dividends $2,467/mo
If the market moves now
Change in the $1.3M on an immediate S&P move. QQQ moves its measured 2-year beta to SPY (1.26x). LEAPS repriced on the Dec '28 smile from the CBOE close, with implied vol +3.5 points per 10% fall. The "whole reset" rows add the income book and crypto sleeve from the PortfolioReset grid (cockpit betas, vol held still).
S&P move
(QQQ moves 1.26x) | 1. $800k cash | 2. $500k cash | 3a. 1 + LEAPS | 3b. 2 + LEAPS | 4. Claude's mix | 5. Your pick |
|---|
| +30% | +$170k | +$271k | +$313k | +$484k | +$281k | +$352k |
| +20% | +$113k | +$181k | +$205k | +$316k | +$184k | +$229k |
| +10% | +$57k | +$90k | +$99k | +$154k | +$90k | +$111k |
| -10% | -$57k | -$90k | -$84k | -$131k | -$76k | -$90k |
| -20% | -$113k | -$181k | -$158k | -$246k | -$144k | -$166k |
| -30% | -$170k | -$271k | -$220k | -$344k | -$202k | -$227k |
| -40% | -$226k | -$362k | -$275k | -$431k | -$253k | -$277k |
| Whole reset at -10% | -$517k rest of book -$461k | -$551k rest of book -$461k | -$545k rest of book -$461k | -$591k rest of book -$461k | -$537k rest of book -$461k | -$550k rest of book -$461k |
| Whole reset at -20% | -$894k rest of book -$781k | -$962k rest of book -$781k | -$939k rest of book -$781k | -$1.03M rest of book -$781k | -$925k rest of book -$781k | -$947k rest of book -$781k |
| Whole reset at -30% | -$1.10M rest of book -$934k | -$1.21M rest of book -$934k | -$1.15M rest of book -$934k | -$1.28M rest of book -$934k | -$1.14M rest of book -$934k | -$1.16M rest of book -$934k |
A year from now
Model, on today's prices: cash at 3.38%, dividends after the 30% US withholding, LEAPS aged a year on the same smile.
| 1. $800k cash | 2. $500k cash | 3a. 1 + LEAPS | 3b. 2 + LEAPS | 4. Claude's mix | 5. Your pick |
|---|
| Market flat for a year | +$30k | +$22k | -$537 | -$24k | +$5k | -$10k |
| S&P −20% over a year | -$84k | -$160k | -$150k | -$257k | -$133k | -$165k |
| S&P +20% over a year | +$144k | +$204k | +$206k | +$295k | +$190k | +$221k |
| Interest + dividends / mo | $2,501 | $1,804 | $2,431 | $1,723 | $2,503 | $2,467 |
Every 12-month window since Mar 1999
6,695 start days, 1999-03-10 to 2026-10-30: SPY and QQQ total return (dividends after withholding), cash at the 13-week T-bill rate less 0.5%, LEAPS bought at today's cost per dollar of index and marked with implied vol moving half as much as VIX / VXN. Returns are on the whole $1.3M.
| 1. $800k cash | 2. $500k cash | 3a. 1 + LEAPS | 3b. 2 + LEAPS | 4. Claude's mix | 5. Your pick |
|---|
| Bad year (1 in 20) | -10.8% | -18.6% | -16.2% | -26.3% | -13.8% | -16.5% |
| Below-par year (1 in 4) | +1.8% | +2.2% | +0.2% | -0.1% | +0.3% | -0.4% |
| Typical year (median) | +6.5% | +9.5% | +8.2% | +11.9% | +7.5% | +8.4% |
| Good year (1 in 4) | +10.4% | +15.6% | +15.3% | +22.7% | +13.4% | +15.6% |
| Great year (1 in 20) | +16.6% | +25.1% | +27.0% | +40.4% | +23.1% | +27.5% |
| Worst 12 months | -17.3% | -29.9% | -21.2% | -35.5% | -20.4% | -22.7% |
| Chance of losing over 10% | 6% | 13% | 13% | 17% | 12% | 14% |
| Typical 2 years (median) | +11.6% | +16.7% | +13.9% | +20.0% | +12.5% | +13.6% |
| Worst 2 years | -20.1% | -35.8% | -23.7% | -40.5% | -20.4% | -22.4% |
Bought at the top of the last five falls
Each mix bought on the day the S&P peaked, held with no changes for up to 3 years (to 30 Oct 2026 for 2025). Main number = the lowest it fell to; below it the month of the low and the result after 1 and 3 years. A LEAPS that expires is held as cash, never rolled.
| Bought at the peak of | 1. $800k cash | 2. $500k cash | 3a. 1 + LEAPS | 3b. 2 + LEAPS | 4. Claude's mix | 5. Your pick |
|---|
| Dot-com 2000-03-24 | -$261k low 2002-10 · 1y -$179k · 3y -$233k | -$483k low 2002-10 · 1y -$327k · 3y -$440k | -$304k low 2002-10 · 1y -$239k · 3y -$280k | -$539k low 2002-10 · 1y -$412k · 3y -$504k | -$260k low 2002-10 · 1y -$190k · 3y -$236k | -$284k low 2002-10 · 1y -$223k · 3y -$262k |
| 2008 2007-10-09 | -$255k low 2009-03 · 1y -$177k · 3y -$56k | -$421k low 2009-03 · 1y -$296k · 3y -$103k | -$309k low 2009-03 · 1y -$232k · 3y -$150k | -$496k low 2009-03 · 1y -$374k · 3y -$241k | -$297k low 2009-03 · 1y -$218k · 3y -$148k | -$323k low 2009-03 · 1y -$245k · 3y -$193k |
| Covid 2020-02-19 | -$154k low 2020-03 · 1y +$145k · 3y +$150k | -$247k low 2020-03 · 1y +$232k · 3y +$223k | -$178k low 2020-03 · 1y +$239k · 3y +$301k | -$280k low 2020-03 · 1y +$369k · 3y +$448k | -$178k low 2020-03 · 1y +$183k · 3y +$262k | -$191k low 2020-03 · 1y +$218k · 3y +$330k |
| 2022 2022-01-03 | -$142k low 2022-10 · 1y -$118k · 3y +$232k | -$234k low 2022-10 · 1y -$201k · 3y +$284k | -$207k low 2022-10 · 1y -$191k · 3y +$159k | -$328k low 2022-10 · 1y -$307k · 3y +$173k | -$185k low 2022-10 · 1y -$164k · 3y +$164k | -$217k low 2022-10 · 1y -$200k · 3y +$128k |
| Tariffs 2025 2025-02-19 | -$100k low 2025-04 · 1y +$95k · 3y +$181k | -$164k low 2025-04 · 1y +$124k · 3y +$244k | -$123k low 2025-04 · 1y +$119k · 3y +$238k | -$197k low 2025-04 · 1y +$160k · 3y +$328k | -$108k low 2025-04 · 1y +$117k · 3y +$226k | -$122k low 2025-04 · 1y +$131k · 3y +$254k |
QQQ fell 83% from March 2000 to October 2002; that is why the dot-com row punishes QQQ-heavy mixes. In 2008 the calls bought at the peak were nearly worthless by March 2009, so 3a loses more than option 1 (its $100k of calls is almost all gone, where $100k of shares lost about half) but far less than option 2, which has the same upside. The loss on the calls can never exceed what was paid.
Which LEAPS for the leveraged slice
CBOE close of 30 Oct, Dec '28 expiry (2.1 years). The year-ahead columns are the option's own % change (for comparison, the shares: SPY -19% / +21%, QQQ -25% / +26% at −20% / +20%, dividends included).
| LEAPS (Dec 15 '28) | Cost / share
(mid + ¼ spread) | Bid / ask | Delta | Leverage
(exposure per $) | Breakeven
at expiry | Open
interest | Market flat
1 year | Index −20%
in a year | Index +20%
in a year |
|---|
| SPY 600C deep in the money | $227.12 | 223.50 / 228.32 | 0.82 | 2.7x | +9.4% | 296 | -12% | -63% | +55% |
| SPY 735C at the money | $130.46 | 127.33 / 131.50 | 0.65 | 3.8x | +14.5% | 1,257 | -27% | -81% | +78% |
| SPY 820C out of the money | $80.28 | 77.39 / 81.24 | 0.50 | 4.7x | +19.1% | 823 | -42% | -88% | +106% |
| QQQ 500C deep in the money | $256.75 | 253.00 / 258.00 | 0.86 | 2.3x | +9.6% | 229 | -11% | -65% | +56% |
| QQQ 675C at the money | $137.38 | 134.00 / 138.50 | 0.66 | 3.3x | +17.7% | 321 | -28% | -84% | +81% |
| QQQ 780C out of the money | $83.25 | 79.50 / 84.50 | 0.49 | 4.1x | +25.0% | 362 | -44% | -89% | +103% |
- Deep in the money is not really leverage. A 0.82-delta call plus the cash it frees behaves like the shares with a put about 20% below: it costs about the put's price a year and gives back little extra upside. Good for "shares with a floor", not for "leveraged upside".
- At the money is the honest leveraged slice: about 3.3-3.8x the exposure per dollar, all of it can be lost, and it loses roughly a quarter of its value in a flat year. In a 20% rally it makes nearly four times what the shares make.
- Out of the money gives the most upside per dollar but needs SPY +19% / QQQ +25% by Dec '28 just to break even, and loses about 40% in a flat year.
- Are they expensive? SPY's at-the-money Dec '28 vol is 19.5% against 12.8% realised over the last year, 16.4% over two and 19.2% since 1999; QQQ 24.4% against 20.3%, 21.9% and 26.9%. Priced at the long-run average, above the calm of the last two years. Not cheap, not stretched.
- Why Dec '28 and not Jan '29 or Dec '27: Dec '28 has far more open interest than Jan '29 at these strikes (tighter fills), and over two years of life it loses less per year than Dec '27. Buy on a limit near the mid; the bid/ask on these is $3-5.
SPY or QQQ
Option 1 ($800k cash / $500k shares) at four splits.
| SPY / QQQ | S&P −20% | S&P −30% | Dot-com low | Typical year | Bad year (1 in 20) |
|---|
| 100 / 0 | -$100k | -$150k | -$174k | +5.6% | -7.4% |
| 70 / 30 | -$108k | -$162k | -$226k | +6.2% | -9.3% |
| 50 / 50 | -$113k | -$170k | -$261k | +6.5% | -10.8% |
| 0 / 100 | -$126k | -$189k | -$349k | +7.2% | -13.9% |
Going from all SPY to all QQQ adds about 1.6 points to a typical year and costs more in every fall (dot-com low -$349k vs -$174k). The bigger reason to lean on SPY is the rest of your book: the Income_HB750 names move 0.85 with QQQ and 0.79 with SPY over the last 180 days, and 0.31 with the part of QQQ that SPY does not explain. QQQ adds more of the same tech bet the income book already carries; SPY adds the banks, healthcare, energy and industrials the income book does not own. 70/30 keeps a Nasdaq tilt without doubling it.
My mix, and what I tried instead
$800k cash, $400k shares + $100k ATM Dec '28 LEAPS, 70% SPY / 30% QQQ
371 SPY shares ($280k)
5x SPY Dec '28 735C ($65k)
174 QQQ shares ($120k)
2x QQQ Dec '28 675C ($27k)
S&P-equivalent exposure $791k (option 1: $566k, option 2: $905k). Cash $807k earning about $2,274/mo. Why this one: it keeps option 1's cash (the reset's shock absorber, and the reserve that covers months the income book does not pay), buys option 2's upside with the LEAPS instead of more shares, and leans to SPY because the income book already holds the Nasdaq. What it gives up: about $25k a year against option 1 if the market goes sideways, and about $31k more loss than option 1 at S&P −20%.
| Variant | S&P −20% now | S&P +20% now | Flat year | Typical year | Bad year (1 in 20) | 2008 low | Why not |
|---|
| Claude's mix $800k cash, $400k shares + $100k ATM Dec '28 LEAPS, 70% SPY / 30% QQQ | -$144k | +$184k | +$5k | +7.5% | -13.8% | -$297k | – |
| Same, deep-ITM LEAPS (0.82 delta) | -$133k | +$147k | +$19k | +7.1% | -12.8% | -$298k | little extra upside: this is shares with a floor |
| Same, OTM LEAPS (0.50 delta) | -$155k | +$252k | -$15k | +8.2% | -15.1% | -$310k | about $20k a year more than the at-the-money slice lost in a flat market |
| Same, all SPY | -$143k | +$188k | +$2k | +7.0% | -13.0% | -$314k | gives up a little upside for a little less dot-com risk; fine too |
| $750k cash / $450k shares / $100k LEAPS | -$154k | +$195k | +$3k | +8.0% | -15.0% | -$325k | more crash loss for half a point of typical return |
| $850k cash / $350k shares / $100k LEAPS | -$133k | +$173k | +$6k | +7.1% | -12.7% | -$269k | fine if you want more dry powder; less upside |
| Same + cash buys $100k shares at S&P -20% and -30% | -$144k | +$184k | +$5k | +7.6% | -13.5% | -$374k | buying into a falling market deepens the 2008 low; the reserve is not for the index |
Doing it
- Shares in thirds, as the reset plan already says: a third when the income book is built, the rest over the following weeks or at each further 5% S&P drop. The LEAPS in two clips, on down days, on a limit near the mid.
- Where: Neville and RetireInc (the reset plan's "index + reserve" accounts). Shares and LEAPS are paid in full, so they need no margin and cannot be force-sold.
- The cash can earn more. Idle USD at IBKR earns the benchmark less 0.5% (about 3.38% today); 13-week T-bills yielded 3.97% at the 30 Oct close. On $800k that gap is about $5k a year, for a ladder of bills you would roll every few months.
- Ask your tax adviser about US estate tax. For a non-US person, US-listed ETFs such as SPY and QQQ are US-situs assets: the US can tax them at up to 40% above $60k at death. Ireland-listed equivalents (CSPX for the S&P 500, CNDX / EQQQ for the Nasdaq 100) are not US-situs and suffer 15% dividend withholding inside the fund instead of 30%. Your current US stocks and options carry the same estate exposure today, so this matters for the long-term shares more than for anything short-dated.
- Every order is yours, in TWS or the Desk's Portfolio (TWS) tab. Nothing here places one.
Method and caveats
- Prices: SPY 755.72, QQQ 690.49 (30 Oct close). LEAPS from the bundle's CBOE close quotes (quotes.json), bought at mid + a quarter of the spread; exits at model mid (no exit spread).
- LEAPS model: Black-Scholes on the Dec '28 smile by moneyness, calibrated to each strike's mid, 3.7% rate, trailing dividend yield (SPY 1.19%, QQQ 0.51%). Scenarios add 3.5 vol points per 10% fall; history moves implied vol half as much as VIX (SPY) or VXN (QQQ; VIX x 1.25 before 2001).
- History (fetch_hist.py, Yahoo): applies today's LEAPS cost per dollar to every past start date; when vol was cheaper or dearer the real cost differed. No rebalancing. Shares get dividends after 30% withholding; cash gets the 13-week T-bill less 0.5%.
- Rest of the reset: the PortfolioReset grid for HBMAX and the 500 MARA + 500 BMNR crypto sleeve (analysis.json), cockpit betas, vol held still. That grid is an S&P move; a high-beta-only fall like October's hurts the rest of the book more than it shows.
- Bundle:
_md_files/portfolio/2026-10-31_portfolio_reset/ (fetch_hist.py, index_cash.py, gen_index_cash.py).