FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $6,360/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $3,760/mo · plus $18,900/mo CC-safe on 1 shallow row(s) ⓘ
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $602,021 locked in if all 10 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| RKLB ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 6 | $72.94 | $148.35 | — | 6 × $78 25 Sep (2d) $252 cyc · $3,780/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% | 5 × $80 25 Sep (2d) $110 cyc · $1,650/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:7%hist 3% | 🎯 4 × $78 25 Sep (2d) $168 cyc · $2,520/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% | 6 × $77 25 Sep (2d) $342 cyc · $5,130/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 25% | $2,602 | -$27,971 (175.6% IC) | 103.4% |
| SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock | |||||||||||
| DELL ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri | 3 | $557.48 | $570.73 | 🎯 3 × $582.50 25 Sep (2d) $1,260 cyc · $18,900/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 39% above floor +$3,530 · hole 0.2mo | 3 × $635 2 Oct (9d)alt tenor $900 cyc · $3,000/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% above floor +$19,280 · hole 1.3mo | 3 × $605 25 Sep (2d) $369 cyc · $5,535/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:13%hist 13% above floor +$10,280 · hole 0.7mo | 3 × $597.50 25 Sep (2d) $567 cyc · $8,505/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% above floor +$8,030 · hole 0.5mo | 3 × $585 25 Sep (2d) $1,110 cyc · $16,650/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:36%hist 30% above floor +$4,280 · hole 0.2mo | $1,059 | +$3,530 whole if assigned | 2.4% whole ~30 Sep on 🎯 |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $20.52 | $17.33 BE | +18.4% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 27d Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $26.95 | $34.71 | 25 × $35 16 Oct (23d) $650 cyc · $848/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:21%hist 25% | 25 × $29.50 25 Sep (2d) $200 cyc · $3,000/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 13% | 21 × $29.50 25 Sep (2d) $168 cyc · $2,520/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 13% | 🎯 16 × $29 25 Sep (2d) $256 cyc · $3,840/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 25% | 15 × $28 25 Sep (2d) $525 cyc · $7,875/mo 74% survhist 84% · T:53%hist 44% | $6,095 | -$8,878 (160.7% IC) | 28.8% |
| TOTAL (3) | 34 | following every 🎯 $1,684 cyc · $25,260/mo | $1,910 cyc · $19,748/mo 2 of 3 | $1,352 cyc · $9,780/mo | $647 cyc · $9,705/mo | $991 cyc · $14,865/mo | $1,977 cyc · $29,655/mo | $9,756 | -$36,850 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$582 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$11.72/sh | +$3,516 cycle +$4,776 [+$2,614…+$3,532] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$8,607 SAFE cap gain +$12,402 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$640 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$5.14/sh | +$1,541 cycle +$2,801 [-$737…+$1,357] · 64% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$24,165 SAFE cap gain +$27,960 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$613 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.16/sh | +$48 cycle +$1,308 [-$2,039…-$175] · 15% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$14,289 SAFE cap gain +$18,084 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$665 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$20 cycle +$1,280 [-$2,673…-$237] · 15% credit | 85% surv 83% | +$30,263 SAFE cap gain +$34,058 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$695 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$3.99/sh | -$1,197 cycle +$63 [-$4,263…-$1,536] | 90% surv 89% | +$38,190 SAFE cap gain +$41,985 |
| budget: banked $1,260 debit $1,197 (95% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$63 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,467/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $18,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,128/mo) | +133% |
| vs normal income ($16,256/mo) | 116% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $18,411/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-3,855 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $576.67 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $577-586.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $586.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $582.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,260 | $5,091 | +$8,886 | -$900 |
| +2.5% | $597.06 (1.5σ) | $-3,109 | $5,161 | +$8,956 | -$900 |
| +5% | $611.62 (2.1σ) | $-7,478 | $5,231 | +$9,026 | -$900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$635 | 9 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$6.11/sh | +$1,833 cycle +$2,733 [+$1,527…+$2,863] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$22,566 SAFE cap gain +$26,361 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$648 | 9 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$1.15/sh | +$346 cycle +$1,246 [-$173…+$1,159] · 68% credit | 71% surv 59% | +$24,895 SAFE cap gain +$28,690 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$665 | 16 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$1.60/sh | +$479 cycle +$1,379 [-$266…+$1,409] · 67% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$30,362 SAFE cap gain +$34,157 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$668 | 16 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.76/sh | +$227 cycle +$1,127 [-$557…+$1,125] · 58% credit | 76% surv 68% | +$30,872 SAFE cap gain +$34,667 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$678 | 16 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$2.33/sh | -$698 cycle +$202 [-$1,631…+$115] · 28% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$32,995 SAFE cap gain +$36,790 |
| budget: banked $900 debit $698 (78% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$202 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $8,508/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,128/mo) | -63% |
| vs normal income ($16,256/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,511/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-3,893 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $628.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $629-638.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $638.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $635.00 (1.4σ) | $900 | $20,733 | +$24,528 | +$14,490 |
| +2.5% | $650.88 (1.7σ) | $-3,862 | $20,809 | +$24,604 | +$14,490 |
| +5% | $666.75 (2.0σ) | $-8,625 | $20,885 | +$24,680 | +$14,490 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$605 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$11.58/sh | +$3,475 cycle +$3,844 [+$2,878…+$3,755] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$14,533 SAFE cap gain +$18,328 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$668 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$3.88/sh | +$1,165 cycle +$1,534 [-$653…+$1,224] · 63% credit | 81% surv 77% | +$31,280 SAFE cap gain +$35,075 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$633 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.72/sh | +$215 cycle +$584 [-$1,394…+$199] · 34% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$19,661 SAFE cap gain +$23,456 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$683 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.77/sh | +$230 cycle +$599 [-$1,812…+$232] · 33% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$34,916 SAFE cap gain +$38,711 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$693 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.93/sh | -$280 cycle +$89 [-$2,456…-$309] · 18% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$37,454 SAFE cap gain +$41,249 |
| budget: banked $369 debit $280 (76% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$89 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,876/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,535/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,128/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($16,256/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,046/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-3,813 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $598.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $599-606.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $606.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $605.00 (1.8σ) | $369 | $11,058 | +$14,853 | +$4,959 |
| +2.5% | $620.12 (2.4σ) | $-4,168 | $11,131 | +$14,926 | +$4,959 |
| +5% | $635.25 (3.0σ) | $-8,706 | $11,203 | +$14,998 | +$4,959 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$598 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$11.63/sh | +$3,490 cycle +$4,057 [+$2,662…+$3,749] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$12,460 SAFE cap gain +$16,255 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$655 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$5.08/sh | +$1,524 cycle +$2,091 [-$659…+$1,567] · 67% credit | 80% surv 76% | +$28,026 SAFE cap gain +$31,821 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$675 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.82/sh | +$246 cycle +$813 [-$2,287…+$220] · 35% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$32,844 SAFE cap gain +$36,639 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$628 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$13 cycle +$580 [-$1,959…-$26] · 24% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$18,133 SAFE cap gain +$21,928 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$690 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$1.63/sh | -$488 cycle +$79 [-$3,237…-$542] · 10% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$36,682 SAFE cap gain +$40,477 |
| budget: banked $567 debit $488 (86% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$79 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,540/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,505/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,128/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($16,256/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,016/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-3,824 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $591.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $592-599.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $599.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $597.50 (1.5σ) | $567 | $8,970 | +$12,765 | +$2,907 |
| +2.5% | $612.44 (2.1σ) | $-3,914 | $9,042 | +$12,837 | +$2,907 |
| +5% | $627.38 (2.7σ) | $-8,396 | $9,113 | +$12,908 | +$2,907 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$585 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$11.71/sh | +$3,512 cycle +$4,622 [+$2,677…+$3,506] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$9,215 SAFE cap gain +$13,010 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$648 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$3.98/sh | +$1,195 cycle +$2,305 [-$1,025…+$999] · 61% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$25,954 SAFE cap gain +$29,749 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$615 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$43 cycle +$1,153 [-$1,895…-$165] · 17% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$14,896 SAFE cap gain +$18,691 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$668 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$15 cycle +$1,125 [-$2,511…-$240] · 16% credit | 85% surv 83% | +$30,870 SAFE cap gain +$34,665 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$688 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$2.82/sh | -$847 cycle +$263 [-$3,620…-$1,147] | 89% surv 87% | +$36,104 SAFE cap gain +$39,899 |
| budget: banked $1,110 debit $847 (76% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$263 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,962/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,128/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($16,256/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,161/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-3,848 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $579.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $579-588.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $588.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $585.00 (1.1σ) | $1,110 | $5,703 | +$9,498 | -$300 |
| +2.5% | $599.62 (1.6σ) | $-3,278 | $5,773 | +$9,568 | -$300 |
| +5% | $614.25 (2.2σ) | $-7,665 | $5,843 | +$9,638 | -$300 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $848/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,797/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($7,594/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $848/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-17,037 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 12d left | 3-11d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (1.4σ) | $650 | $1,328 | +$17,978 | +$575 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (1.6σ) | $-1,538 | $1,024 | +$17,674 | -$1,612 |
| +5% | $36.75 (1.7σ) | $-3,725 | $720 | +$17,370 | -$3,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (2.2σ) | $-11,125 | $-309 | +$16,341 | -$4,425 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.40/sh | +$994 cycle +$1,194 [-$207…+$1,000] · 69% credit | 65% surv 53% | -$9,967 NOT cap gain +$6,683 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$33 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.42/sh | +$1,059 cycle +$1,259 [-$326…+$1,060] · 68% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$3,337 NOT cap gain +$13,313 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.15/sh | +$370 cycle +$570 [-$1,163…+$350] · 41% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$1,874 NOT cap gain +$14,776 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$31 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$21 cycle +$221 [-$1,434…-$27] · 22% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$8,680 NOT cap gain +$7,970 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,797/mo) | -21% |
| vs normal income ($7,594/mo) | 40% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,822 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 232.1% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 23.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-16,912 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.50 (1.5σ) | $200 | $-10,961 | +$5,689 | +$125 |
| +2.5% | $30.24 (1.9σ) | $-1,644 | $-11,217 | +$5,433 | -$1,719 |
| +5% | $30.98 (2.4σ) | $-3,488 | $-11,474 | +$5,176 | -$3,563 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.5σ) | $-25,325 | $-14,509 | +$2,141 | -$18,625 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (21 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.40/sh | +$835 cycle +$1,003 [-$132…+$833] · 72% credit | 65% surv 53% | -$10,146 NOT cap gain +$6,504 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$33 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.42/sh | +$889 cycle +$1,057 [-$234…+$886] · 69% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$3,527 NOT cap gain +$13,123 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.15/sh | +$311 cycle +$479 [-$934…+$304] · 45% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$1,953 NOT cap gain +$14,697 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$31 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$17 cycle +$185 [-$1,120…+$0] · 25% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$8,704 NOT cap gain +$7,946 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,520/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,797/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($7,594/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,542/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,771 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 194.9% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 19.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (21 ct) | $-14,206 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.50 (1.5σ) | $168 | $-10,981 | +$5,669 | +$105 |
| +2.5% | $30.24 (1.9σ) | $-1,381 | $-10,942 | +$5,708 | -$1,444 |
| +5% | $30.98 (2.4σ) | $-2,930 | $-10,904 | +$5,746 | -$2,993 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.5σ) | $-21,273 | $-11,529 | +$5,121 | -$15,645 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$29 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.39/sh | +$619 cycle +$875 [-$178…+$605] · 68% credit | 65% surv 53% | -$11,335 NOT cap gain +$5,315 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$32 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.39/sh | +$623 cycle +$879 [-$321…+$605] · 64% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$4,766 NOT cap gain +$11,884 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.16/sh | +$259 cycle +$515 [-$618…+$234] · 45% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$10,512 NOT cap gain +$6,138 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$33 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$191 cycle +$447 [-$841…+$161] · 39% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$3,045 NOT cap gain +$13,605 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$34 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.11/sh | -$182 cycle +$74 [-$1,301…-$227] · 13% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$1,267 NOT cap gain +$15,383 |
| budget: banked $256 debit $182 (71% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $1,712/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,840/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,797/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($7,594/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,891/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,878 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 160.7% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 16.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-10,768 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $28.71 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.00 (1.2σ) | $256 | $-11,954 | +$4,696 | +$208 |
| +2.5% | $29.72 (1.6σ) | $-904 | $-11,554 | +$5,096 | -$952 |
| +5% | $30.45 (2.1σ) | $-2,064 | $-11,153 | +$5,497 | -$2,112 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.5σ) | $-16,880 | $-8,476 | +$8,174 | -$12,592 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$31 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.46/sh | +$685 cycle +$1,210 [-$378…+$580] · 64% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$7,661 NOT cap gain +$8,989 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.37/sh | +$549 cycle +$1,074 [-$380…+$458] · 62% credit | 65% surv 53% | -$13,286 NOT cap gain +$3,364 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$214 cycle +$739 [-$818…+$102] · 34% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$12,437 NOT cap gain +$4,213 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$98 cycle +$623 [-$1,109…-$35] · 21% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$5,019 NOT cap gain +$11,631 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$34 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.32/sh | -$485 cycle +$40 [-$1,870…-$657] | 86% surv 84% | -$1,297 NOT cap gain +$15,353 |
| budget: banked $525 debit $485 (92% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $1,077/mo while parked; 10 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,875/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,797/mo) | +107% |
| vs normal income ($7,594/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,931/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,538 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 172.6% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 17.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-10,177 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $28-28.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $28.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $525 | $-13,835 | +$2,815 | +$480 |
| +2.5% | $28.70 (1.0σ) | $-525 | $-13,378 | +$3,272 | -$570 |
| +5% | $29.40 (1.4σ) | $-1,575 | $-12,921 | +$3,729 | -$1,620 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.5σ) | $-17,040 | $-8,904 | +$7,746 | -$13,020 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.68/sh | +$1,009 cycle +$1,261 [+$833…+$1,057] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$43,131 NOT cap gain +$4,455 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$85 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.24/sh | +$744 cycle +$996 [+$279…+$730] · 85% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$38,940 NOT cap gain +$8,646 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.16/sh | +$96 cycle +$348 [-$355…+$69] · 39% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$41,482 NOT cap gain +$6,104 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$90 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.17/sh | +$104 cycle +$356 [-$498…+$68] · 36% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$36,423 NOT cap gain +$11,163 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,780/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,391/mo) | +58% |
| vs normal income ($4,781/mo) | 79% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,535/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,957 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 263.4% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 60.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.8 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-47,601 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (1.3σ) | $252 | $-44,140 | +$3,446 | +$162 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.8σ) | $-918 | $-44,079 | +$3,507 | -$1,008 |
| +5% | $81.90 (2.4σ) | $-2,088 | $-44,018 | +$3,568 | -$2,178 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (18.0σ) | $-37,878 | $-42,157 | +$5,429 | -$13,038 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$80 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.67/sh | +$836 cycle +$946 [+$656…+$914] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$42,169 NOT cap gain +$5,417 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$87 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.24/sh | +$621 cycle +$731 [+$169…+$667] · 82% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$37,927 NOT cap gain +$9,659 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$84 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.15/sh | +$74 cycle +$184 [-$376…+$84] · 40% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$40,369 NOT cap gain +$7,217 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$92 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.17/sh | +$84 cycle +$194 [-$510…+$101] · 37% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$35,308 NOT cap gain +$12,278 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,391/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($4,781/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,433/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$34,064 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 213.8% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 48.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-39,660 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $79.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $79-80.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $80.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $80.00 (1.9σ) | $110 | $-43,005 | +$4,581 | +$35 |
| +2.5% | $82.00 (2.4σ) | $-890 | $-42,742 | +$4,844 | -$965 |
| +5% | $84.00 (2.9σ) | $-1,890 | $-42,480 | +$5,106 | -$1,965 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (18.0σ) | $-30,665 | $-39,084 | +$8,502 | -$9,965 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.68/sh | +$673 cycle +$841 [+$526…+$693] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$43,521 NOT cap gain +$4,065 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$85 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.24/sh | +$496 cycle +$664 [+$142…+$477] · 81% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$39,242 NOT cap gain +$8,344 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$82 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.16/sh | +$64 cycle +$232 [-$281…+$34] · 34% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$41,568 NOT cap gain +$6,018 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$90 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.17/sh | +$70 cycle +$238 [-$389…+$31] · 32% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$36,512 NOT cap gain +$11,074 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,520/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,391/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($4,781/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,331/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,971 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 175.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 40.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.9 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-31,734 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (1.3σ) | $168 | $-44,194 | +$3,392 | +$108 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.8σ) | $-612 | $-43,743 | +$3,843 | -$672 |
| +5% | $81.90 (2.4σ) | $-1,392 | $-43,292 | +$4,294 | -$1,452 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (18.0σ) | $-25,252 | $-37,811 | +$9,775 | -$8,692 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$77 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.69/sh | +$1,011 cycle +$1,353 [+$745…+$1,039] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$43,670 NOT cap gain +$3,916 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.24/sh | +$742 cycle +$1,084 [+$114…+$719] · 79% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$39,483 NOT cap gain +$8,103 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 2 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.17/sh | +$99 cycle +$441 [-$517…+$61] · 34% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$42,020 NOT cap gain +$5,566 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$89 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.18/sh | +$105 cycle +$447 [-$702…+$55] · 32% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$36,964 NOT cap gain +$10,622 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 16 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.48/sh | -$290 cycle +$52 [-$1,224…-$358] | 90% surv 89% | -$34,203 NOT cap gain +$13,383 |
| budget: banked $342 debit $290 (85% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$52 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $809/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,130/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,391/mo) | +115% |
| vs normal income ($4,781/mo) | 107% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,885/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,467 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 266.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 60.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-47,616 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-77.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $77.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.00 (1.1σ) | $342 | $-44,681 | +$2,905 | +$252 |
| +2.5% | $78.92 (1.6σ) | $-813 | $-44,621 | +$2,965 | -$903 |
| +5% | $80.85 (2.1σ) | $-1,968 | $-44,561 | +$3,025 | -$2,058 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (18.0σ) | $-38,388 | $-42,667 | +$4,919 | -$13,548 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (58d) | $168.80 | $180.96 | $19.75 | $19.75 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.20 OTM = 0.7% (0.2x a typical daily move). The $19.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (58d) | $168.80 | $180.95 | $19.75 | $19.75 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.20 OTM = 0.7% (0.2x a typical daily move). The $19.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $170C at ~$19.86 ($19,862), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $165C 25 Sep 2026 (2d) | $153.62 | $166.40 | $0.24 | $0.24 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.38 OTM = 7.4% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $0.24 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$675 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $166.40 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $92C 25 Sep 2026 (2d) | $86.70 | $92.65 | $0.38 | $0.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.30 OTM = 6.1% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $0.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,210 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $91.54 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1x $1150C 28 Sep 2026 (5d) | $1,087.86 | $1,154.16 | $7.05 | $7.05 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 62.14 OTM = 5.7% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $7.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$411 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,154.16 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $782C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $772.08 | $783.17 | $1.56 | $1.56 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.92 OTM = 1.3% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $1.56 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,348 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $783.17 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $360C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $337.35 | $360.56 | $0.31 | $0.31 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 22.65 OTM = 6.7% (4.3x a typical daily move). The $0.31 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$257 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $360.56 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $370C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $343.28 | $372.00 | $0.72 | $0.72 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 26.72 OTM = 7.8% (3.7x a typical daily move). The $0.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$975 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $372.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $275C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $251.79 | $275.62 | $0.28 | $0.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.21 OTM = 9.2% (4.2x a typical daily move). The $0.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$287 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $275.62 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $375C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $343.28 | $376.41 | $0.47 | $0.47 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.72 OTM = 9.2% (4.2x a typical daily move). The $0.47 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,043 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $376.41 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $100C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $87.87 | $100.71 | $1.00 | $1.00 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.13 OTM = 13.8% (2.6x a typical daily move). The $1.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$328 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.71 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $35C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $30.50 | $35.29 | $0.30 | $0.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.50 OTM = 14.8% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$360 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $35.29 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10x $145C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $125.62 | $145.81 | $0.73 | $0.73 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.38 OTM = 15.4% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $0.73 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$762 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $145.81 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5x $115C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $97.08 | $115.92 | $0.83 | $0.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.92 OTM = 18.5% (3.2x a typical daily move). The $0.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$433 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $115.92 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $370C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $309.97 | $371.70 | $0.65 | $0.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 60.03 OTM = 19.4% (4.5x a typical daily move). The $0.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$165 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $371.70 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $48.33 | $58.38 | $0.32 | $0.32 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.67 OTM = 20.0% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $0.32 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$665 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $58.38 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) | $48.33 | $58.35 | $0.32 | $0.32 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.67 OTM = 20.0% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $0.32 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$606 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $58.35 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $250C 9 Oct 2026 (16d) | $228.48 | $250.65 | $0.69 | $0.69 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 21.52 OTM = 9.4% (4.7x a typical daily move). The $0.69 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$603 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $250.65 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (23d) | $107.90 | $112.23 | $1.98 | $1.98 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.10 OTM = 2.9% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $1.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (23d) | $343.28 | $359.26 | $6.33 | $6.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.72 OTM = 3.4% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $6.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (23d) | $48.33 | $55.88 | $1.71 | $1.71 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.67 OTM = 13.8% (2.7x a typical daily move). The $1.71 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (23d) | $48.33 | $55.88 | $1.71 | $1.71 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.67 OTM = 13.8% (2.7x a typical daily move). The $1.71 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 (23d) | $26.97 | $32.84 | $0.71 | $0.71 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.53 OTM = 20.5% (3.7x a typical daily move). The $0.71 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,931 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $32.84 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (30d) | $1,087.86 | $1,284.32 | $32.48 | $32.48 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 162.14 OTM = 14.9% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $32.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,854 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,284.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (30d) | $121.24 | $162.09 | $1.83 | $1.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 38.76 OTM = 32.0% (6.2x a typical daily move). The $1.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,019 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $162.09 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (37d) | $204.23 | $245.47 | $6.95 | $6.95 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 35.77 OTM = 17.5% (3.9x a typical daily move). The $6.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,548 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $245.47 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (58d) | $196.91 | $224.53 | $9.72 | $9.72 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.09 OTM = 11.7% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $9.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $2200C 20 Nov 2026 (58d) | $1,849.48 | $2,333.48 | $123.40 | $123.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 350.52 OTM = 19.0% (3.7x a typical daily move). The $123.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,343 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $2,333.48 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (58d) | $1,087.86 | $1,376.43 | $37.65 | $37.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 262.14 OTM = 24.1% (5.9x a typical daily move). The $37.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,188 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,376.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $445C 18 Dec 2026 (86d) | $393.40 | $451.11 | $4.33 | $4.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 51.60 OTM = 13.1% (8.6x a typical daily move). The $4.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,062 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $451.11 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (86d) | $204.23 | $278.82 | $9.32 | $9.32 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 65.77 OTM = 32.2% (7.2x a typical daily move). The $9.32 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,020 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $278.82 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $28.37 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 46.7% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $28.37 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 22.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $28.37 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $14.96 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 27.9% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $34.27 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 39.0% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $48.62 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 31.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $13.52 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 19.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $13.52 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 67.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $334.64 | 5x $360C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $275C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $370C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (86d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (37d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $92C 25 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5 | $87.00 | 5x $115C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $100C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $445C 18 Dec 2026 (86d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $375C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (23d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $370C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $35C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10 | $114.95 | 10x $145C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (23d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (30d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (23d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (23d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $58C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (58d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (58d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1 | $792.36 | 1x $1150C 28 Sep 2026 (5d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (58d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (30d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $250C 9 Oct 2026 (16d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (58d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $2200C 20 Nov 2026 (58d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $165C 25 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $782C 2 Oct 2026 (9d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 198 | 56% | 61% | +5pp |
| 60-70% | 378 | 64% | 62% | -2pp |
| 70-80% | 505 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 662 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 1085 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2828 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 11 graded weeks; last week 0.65x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 167 real buyback(s) recorded · 84 roll(s), net +$0.58/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 84 real rolls: buyback $6.69/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.58/sh (58 of 84 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.