FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $17,265/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $10,533/mo · plus $3,450/mo CC-safe on 1 shallow row(s) ⓘ
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $745,603 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri | 20 | $43.66 | $58.19 | 20 × $60 23 Oct (25d) $780 cyc · $936/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 14% | 20 × $49.50 2 Oct (4d) $400 cyc · $3,000/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14% | 18 × $48.50 2 Oct (4d) $558 cyc · $4,185/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:25%hist 25% | 🎯 19 × $47.50 2 Oct (4d) $836 cyc · $6,270/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 33% | 19 × $45.50 2 Oct (4d) $1,691 cyc · $12,682/mo 69% survhist 64% · T:63%hist 59% | $5,471 | -$19,473 (324.6% IC) | 33.3% |
| IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 20 | $43.66 | $66.67 | 20 × $65 9 Oct (11d) $20 cyc · $55/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:2%hist 3% | 20 × $49.50 2 Oct (4d) $400 cyc · $3,000/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14% | 18 × $48.50 2 Oct (4d) $558 cyc · $4,185/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:25%hist 25% | 🎯 19 × $47.50 2 Oct (4d) $836 cyc · $6,270/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 33% | 19 × $45.50 2 Oct (4d) $1,691 cyc · $12,682/mo 69% survhist 64% · T:63%hist 59% | $4,076 | -$35,589 (259.8% IC) | 52.7% |
| SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock | |||||||||||
| CRCL ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri | 5 | $86.51 | $92.02 | 🎯 5 × $93.50 2 Oct (4d) $460 cyc · $3,450/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 33% above floor +$741 · hole 0.8mo | 5 × $98 2 Oct (4d) $195 cyc · $1,462/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14% above floor +$2,991 · hole 1.9mo | 4 × $96 2 Oct (4d) $240 cyc · $1,800/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:25%hist 25% above floor +$1,593 · hole 1.5mo | 5 × $95 2 Oct (4d) $365 cyc · $2,738/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 25% above floor +$1,491 · hole 1.0mo | 5 × $90 2 Oct (4d) $880 cyc · $6,600/mo 69% survhist 64% · T:64%hist 59% locks −$129 · hole 0.4mo | $280 | +$741 whole if assigned | 6.4% whole ~22 Oct on 🎯 |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $20.35 | $17.33 BE | +17.4% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| HOOD Joint:1782 | 10 | $119.70 | $114.95 BE | +4.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| MU-LC670 Joint:1782 | 1 | $1,063.56 | $792.36 BE | +34.2% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 22d Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $24.09 | $35.03 | 25 × $37.50 16 Oct (18d) $125 cyc · $208/mo 98% survhist 96% · T:3%hist 3% | 25 × $28 2 Oct (4d) $150 cyc · $1,125/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 14% | 14 × $26 2 Oct (4d) $420 cyc · $3,150/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:41%hist 41% | 🎯 21 × $26 2 Oct (4d) $630 cyc · $4,725/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:41%hist 41% | 23 × $25 2 Oct (4d) $1,265 cyc · $9,488/mo 67% survhist 64% · T:68%hist 59% | $6,095 | -$18,340 (331.9% IC) | 45.4% |
| TOTAL (4) | 70 | following every 🎯 $2,762 cyc · $20,715/mo | $1,385 cyc · $4,649/mo | $1,145 cyc · $8,588/mo | $1,776 cyc · $13,320/mo | $2,667 cyc · $20,002/mo | $5,527 cyc · $41,452/mo | $15,922 | -$73,402 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$94 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.50/sh | +$750 cycle +$1,210 [+$542…+$944] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$2,055 SAFE cap gain +$4,905 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$102 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.86/sh | +$431 cycle +$891 [-$22…+$543] · 74% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$6,222 SAFE cap gain +$9,072 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$97 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.25/sh | +$123 cycle +$583 [-$212…+$223] · 51% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$3,272 SAFE cap gain +$6,122 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.07/sh | +$36 cycle +$496 [-$517…+$106] · 35% credit | 80% surv 75% | +$6,884 SAFE cap gain +$9,734 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$107 | 16 Oct 2026 | 16d left | -$0.90/sh | -$452 cycle +$8 [-$1,062…-$425] · 1% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$7,981 SAFE cap gain +$10,831 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $452 (98% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$8 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,463/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,727/mo) | +27% |
| vs normal income ($5,455/mo) | 63% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,384/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-2,883 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $92.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $93-94.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $93.50 (1.1σ) | $460 | $1,304 | +$4,154 | +$1,710 |
| +2.5% | $95.84 (1.4σ) | $-709 | $1,371 | +$4,221 | +$1,710 |
| +5% | $98.17 (1.8σ) | $-1,877 | $1,437 | +$4,287 | +$1,710 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.45/sh | +$724 cycle +$919 [+$602…+$976] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$4,141 SAFE cap gain +$6,991 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$101 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.19/sh | +$97 cycle +$292 [-$181…+$305] · 63% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$5,359 SAFE cap gain +$8,209 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$107 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.27/sh | +$135 cycle +$330 [-$313…+$370] · 61% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$8,567 SAFE cap gain +$11,417 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$108 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.03/sh | +$14 cycle +$209 [-$468…+$247] · 44% credit | 79% surv 75% | +$8,975 SAFE cap gain +$11,825 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$110 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.36/sh | -$178 cycle +$17 [-$706…+$51] · 30% credit | 81% surv 78% | +$9,841 SAFE cap gain +$12,691 |
| budget: banked $195 debit $178 (91% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,453/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,462/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,727/mo) | -46% |
| vs normal income ($5,455/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,396/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-2,878 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $97.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $97-98.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $98.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $98.00 (1.8σ) | $195 | $3,417 | +$6,267 | +$3,695 |
| +2.5% | $100.45 (2.1σ) | $-1,030 | $3,487 | +$6,337 | +$3,695 |
| +5% | $102.90 (2.5σ) | $-2,255 | $3,557 | +$6,407 | +$3,695 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$96 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.47/sh | +$589 cycle +$829 [+$458…+$756] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$2,495 SAFE cap gain +$5,345 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$104 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.85/sh | +$339 cycle +$579 [-$8…+$456] · 74% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$5,882 SAFE cap gain +$8,732 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$99 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.22/sh | +$87 cycle +$327 [-$163…+$196] · 53% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$3,488 SAFE cap gain +$6,338 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$106 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.05/sh | +$19 cycle +$259 [-$406…+$116] · 34% credit | 79% surv 75% | +$6,420 SAFE cap gain +$9,270 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$109 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.40/sh | -$161 cycle +$79 [-$634…-$78] · 17% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$7,524 SAFE cap gain +$10,374 |
| budget: banked $240 debit $161 (67% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$79 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,110/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,727/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($5,455/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,825/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-2,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $95.04 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $95-96.65 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.65 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $96.00 (1.5σ) | $240 | $1,905 | +$4,755 | +$2,240 |
| +2.5% | $98.40 (1.8σ) | $-720 | $1,974 | +$4,824 | +$2,240 |
| +5% | $100.80 (2.2σ) | $-1,680 | $2,042 | +$4,892 | +$2,240 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$95 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.48/sh | +$742 cycle +$1,107 [+$566…+$947] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$2,744 SAFE cap gain +$5,594 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$103 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.85/sh | +$427 cycle +$792 [+$0…+$573] · 75% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$6,916 SAFE cap gain +$9,766 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$98 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.23/sh | +$115 cycle +$480 [-$197…+$246] · 49% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$3,962 SAFE cap gain +$6,812 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$105 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.06/sh | +$29 cycle +$394 [-$489…+$145] · 34% credit | 79% surv 75% | +$7,575 SAFE cap gain +$10,425 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$109 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.70/sh | -$350 cycle +$15 [-$960…-$259] · 8% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$9,310 SAFE cap gain +$12,160 |
| budget: banked $365 debit $350 (96% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,177/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,738/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,727/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($5,455/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,671/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-2,868 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $94.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $94-95.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $95.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $95.00 (1.3σ) | $365 | $2,002 | +$4,852 | +$2,365 |
| +2.5% | $97.37 (1.7σ) | $-822 | $2,070 | +$4,920 | +$2,365 |
| +5% | $99.75 (2.0σ) | $-2,010 | $2,137 | +$4,987 | +$2,365 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.53/sh | +$767 cycle +$1,647 [+$492…+$755] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$641 SAFE cap gain +$3,491 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$98 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.87/sh | +$437 cycle +$1,317 [-$182…+$326] · 62% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$4,799 SAFE cap gain +$7,649 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$93 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.28/sh | +$140 cycle +$1,020 [-$311…+$67] · 31% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$1,859 SAFE cap gain +$4,709 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$100 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.10/sh | +$48 cycle +$928 [-$684…-$100] · 17% credit | 80% surv 76% | +$5,467 SAFE cap gain +$8,317 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$108 | 16 Oct 2026 | 16d left | -$1.53/sh | -$763 cycle +$117 [-$1,695…-$991] | 91% surv 90% | +$8,883 SAFE cap gain +$11,733 |
| budget: banked $880 debit $763 (87% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$117 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $793/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,727/mo) | +142% |
| vs normal income ($5,455/mo) | 121% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,534/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$129 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.6% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-2,875 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $89.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $89-91.81 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $91.81 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $90.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $880 | $-126 | +$2,724 | +$380 |
| +2.5% | $92.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-245 | $-61 | +$2,789 | +$380 |
| +5% | $94.50 (1.2σ) | $-1,370 | $3 | +$2,853 | +$380 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 23 Oct 2026 | 16d left | +$0.45/sh | +$1,123 cycle +$1,248 | 69% surv 55% | +$6,000 SAFE cap gain +$29,275 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 23 Oct 2026 | 16d left | +$0.05/sh | +$125 cycle +$250 | 71% surv 59% | +$6,903 SAFE cap gain +$30,178 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 23 Oct 2026 | 16d left | +$0.05/sh | +$125 cycle +$250 | 71% surv 59% | +$6,903 SAFE cap gain +$30,178 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $208/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,636/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($9,273/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $208/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-23,363 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 10d left | 3-9d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-37.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (3.0σ) | $125 | $4,877 | +$28,152 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (3.2σ) | $-2,219 | $4,493 | +$27,768 | -$2,244 |
| +5% | $39.38 (3.4σ) | $-4,562 | $4,108 | +$27,383 | -$4,588 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.5σ) | $-5,400 | $3,971 | +$27,246 | -$5,425 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.63/sh | +$1,583 cycle +$1,733 [+$1,560…+$2,080] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$13,370 NOT cap gain +$9,905 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.20/sh | +$493 cycle +$643 [+$128…+$1,013] · 80% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$6,288 NOT cap gain +$16,987 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.04/sh | +$108 cycle +$258 [-$194…+$514] · 65% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$11,898 NOT cap gain +$11,377 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.03/sh | -$79 cycle +$71 [-$543…+$402] · 53% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$4,770 NOT cap gain +$18,505 |
| budget: banked $150 debit $79 (53% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$71 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,104/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,636/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($9,273/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,125/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,433 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 315.5% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 31.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-23,363 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $28-28.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $28.00 (1.8σ) | $150 | $-14,953 | +$8,322 | +$125 |
| +2.5% | $28.70 (2.2σ) | $-1,600 | $-15,240 | +$8,035 | -$1,625 |
| +5% | $29.40 (2.5σ) | $-3,350 | $-15,527 | +$7,748 | -$3,375 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.3σ) | $-29,125 | $-19,754 | +$3,521 | -$29,150 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.56/sh | +$785 cycle +$1,205 [+$562…+$941] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$18,067 NOT cap gain +$5,208 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$29 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.33/sh | +$457 cycle +$877 [+$22…+$549] · 77% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$12,313 NOT cap gain +$10,962 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.14/sh | +$202 cycle +$622 [-$141…+$277] · 58% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$16,748 NOT cap gain +$6,527 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.07/sh | +$100 cycle +$520 [-$404…+$150] · 39% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$10,581 NOT cap gain +$12,694 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$31 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.13/sh | -$189 cycle +$231 [-$767…-$169] · 17% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$8,779 NOT cap gain +$14,496 |
| budget: banked $420 debit $189 (45% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$231 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $1,349/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,636/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($9,273/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,168/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,227 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 221.3% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 22.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-13,125 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $420 | $-18,852 | +$4,423 | +$406 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (1.2σ) | $-490 | $-18,404 | +$4,871 | -$504 |
| +5% | $27.30 (1.5σ) | $-1,400 | $-17,955 | +$5,320 | -$1,414 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.3σ) | $-18,774 | $-9,392 | +$13,883 | -$18,788 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (21 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.56/sh | +$1,177 cycle +$1,807 [+$870…+$1,435] · 97% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$17,472 NOT cap gain +$5,803 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$29 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.33/sh | +$685 cycle +$1,315 [+$97…+$874] · 78% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$11,882 NOT cap gain +$11,393 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.14/sh | +$304 cycle +$934 [-$162…+$467] · 61% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$16,444 NOT cap gain +$6,831 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.07/sh | +$149 cycle +$779 [-$556…+$291] · 40% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$10,328 NOT cap gain +$12,947 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$31 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.13/sh | -$283 cycle +$347 [-$1,087…-$181] · 17% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$8,670 NOT cap gain +$14,605 |
| budget: banked $630 debit $283 (45% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$347 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $2,024/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,725/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,636/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($9,273/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,732/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,340 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 331.9% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 33.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (21 ct) | $-19,688 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $630 | $-18,649 | +$4,626 | +$609 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (1.2σ) | $-735 | $-18,656 | +$4,619 | -$756 |
| +5% | $27.30 (1.5σ) | $-2,100 | $-18,662 | +$4,613 | -$2,121 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.3σ) | $-28,161 | $-18,786 | +$4,489 | -$28,182 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (23 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.53/sh | +$1,209 cycle +$2,474 [+$680…+$1,154] · 96% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$18,897 NOT cap gain +$4,378 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.52/sh | +$1,197 cycle +$2,462 [+$303…+$1,067] · 86% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$14,917 NOT cap gain +$8,358 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.11/sh | +$263 cycle +$1,528 [-$533…+$128] · 31% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$17,941 NOT cap gain +$5,334 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.01/sh | +$33 cycle +$1,298 [-$1,157…-$204] · 16% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$11,901 NOT cap gain +$11,374 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$31 | 16 Oct 2026 | 16d left | -$0.52/sh | -$1,207 cycle +$58 [-$2,754…-$1,569] | 90% surv 89% | -$8,962 NOT cap gain +$14,313 |
| budget: banked $1,265 debit $1,207 (95% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $1,277/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,488/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,636/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($9,273/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,491/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,812 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 394.8% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 39.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (23 ct) | $-21,551 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,265 | $-20,106 | +$3,169 | +$1,242 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-172 | $-20,237 | +$3,038 | -$195 |
| +5% | $26.25 (1.0σ) | $-1,610 | $-20,369 | +$2,906 | -$1,633 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.3σ) | $-32,568 | $-23,195 | +$80 | -$32,591 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $936/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,164/mo) | -85% |
| vs normal income ($12,327/mo) | 8% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $710/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,640 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 13d left | 3-12d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $59.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $59-60.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $60.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $60.00 (1.9σ) | $780 | $5,762 | +$38,362 | +$8,500 |
| +2.5% | $61.50 (2.0σ) | $-2,220 | $6,212 | +$38,812 | +$8,500 |
| +5% | $63.00 (2.2σ) | $-5,220 | $6,662 | +$39,262 | +$8,500 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.18/sh | +$2,360 cycle +$2,760 [+$2,274…+$2,896] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$16,408 NOT cap gain +$16,192 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$57 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.29/sh | +$572 cycle +$972 [-$235…+$1,085] · 68% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$1,314 NOT cap gain +$31,286 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.12/sh | +$241 cycle +$641 [-$334…+$651] · 59% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$11,995 NOT cap gain +$20,605 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.14/sh | +$284 cycle +$684 [-$570…+$784] · 54% credit | 83% surv 79% | +$698 SAFE cap gain +$33,298 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$59 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.08/sh | -$168 cycle +$232 [-$1,130…+$308] · 37% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$2,546 SAFE cap gain +$35,146 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $168 (42% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$232 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,496/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,164/mo) | -51% |
| vs normal income ($12,327/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,774/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,978 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 283.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 18.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-32,650 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.01 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.73 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.73 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.50 (1.7σ) | $400 | $-18,768 | +$13,832 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $50.74 (2.0σ) | $-2,075 | $-18,397 | +$14,203 | -$2,355 |
| +5% | $51.98 (2.4σ) | $-4,550 | $-18,025 | +$14,575 | -$4,830 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.6σ) | $-13,600 | $-16,668 | +$15,932 | -$12,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.14/sh | +$2,050 cycle +$2,608 [+$1,945…+$2,512] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$18,832 NOT cap gain +$13,768 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$56 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.22/sh | +$398 cycle +$956 [-$350…+$785] · 60% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$3,602 NOT cap gain +$28,998 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.08/sh | +$152 cycle +$710 [-$387…+$461] · 53% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$14,198 NOT cap gain +$18,402 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.08/sh | +$142 cycle +$700 [-$655…+$505] · 49% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$1,726 NOT cap gain +$30,874 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$59 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.28/sh | -$503 cycle +$55 [-$1,456…-$187] · 17% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$1,829 SAFE cap gain +$34,429 |
| budget: banked $558 debit $503 (90% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $2,579/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,185/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,164/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($12,327/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,035/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,882 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 281.4% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 18.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-29,367 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.83 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.83 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.50 (1.4σ) | $558 | $-20,882 | +$11,718 | +$306 |
| +2.5% | $49.71 (1.7σ) | $-1,624 | $-20,276 | +$12,324 | -$1,876 |
| +5% | $50.93 (2.1σ) | $-3,807 | $-19,669 | +$12,931 | -$4,059 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.6σ) | $-13,842 | $-16,982 | +$15,618 | -$13,194 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.10/sh | +$2,087 cycle +$2,923 [+$1,896…+$2,539] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$20,831 NOT cap gain +$11,769 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$54 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.40/sh | +$763 cycle +$1,599 [+$26…+$1,095] · 76% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$7,573 NOT cap gain +$25,027 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$50 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.05/sh | +$94 cycle +$930 [-$509…+$319] · 42% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$16,292 NOT cap gain +$16,308 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.02/sh | +$36 cycle +$872 [-$865…+$295] · 35% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$3,700 NOT cap gain +$28,900 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$58 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.32/sh | -$615 cycle +$221 [-$1,686…-$432] · 11% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$65 SAFE cap gain +$32,665 |
| budget: banked $836 debit $615 (74% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$221 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,500/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,270/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,164/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($12,327/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,082/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,473 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 324.6% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 20.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-31,008 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.50 (1.1σ) | $836 | $-22,918 | +$9,682 | +$570 |
| +2.5% | $48.69 (1.4σ) | $-1,420 | $-22,443 | +$10,157 | -$1,686 |
| +5% | $49.88 (1.8σ) | $-3,676 | $-21,968 | +$10,632 | -$3,942 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.6σ) | $-16,264 | $-19,368 | +$13,232 | -$15,580 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.02/sh | +$1,937 cycle +$3,628 [+$1,576…+$1,964] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$24,726 NOT cap gain +$7,874 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$51 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.46/sh | +$877 cycle +$2,568 [-$164…+$749] · 69% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$13,504 NOT cap gain +$19,096 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.10/sh | +$196 cycle +$1,887 [-$625…+$82] · 29% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$21,085 NOT cap gain +$11,515 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.04/sh | +$79 cycle +$1,770 [-$1,177…-$143] · 20% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$9,702 NOT cap gain +$22,898 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$58 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.61/sh | -$1,164 cycle +$527 [-$2,852…-$1,542] | 90% surv 89% | +$371 SAFE cap gain +$32,971 |
| budget: banked $1,691 debit $1,164 (69% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$527 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,563/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,682/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,164/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($12,327/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,494/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,418 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 373.6% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 23.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-30,979 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-46.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,691 | $-26,663 | +$5,937 | +$1,425 |
| +2.5% | $46.64 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-470 | $-26,208 | +$6,392 | -$736 |
| +5% | $47.77 (1.2σ) | $-2,631 | $-25,753 | +$6,847 | -$2,897 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.6σ) | $-19,209 | $-22,313 | +$10,287 | -$18,525 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 16 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$1.47/sh | +$2,942 cycle +$2,962 | 69% surv 54% | +$339 SAFE cap gain +$51,489 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$68 | 16 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$0.19/sh | +$385 cycle +$405 | 74% surv 64% | +$5,378 SAFE cap gain +$56,528 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$71 | 23 Oct 2026 | 20d left | +$0.35/sh | +$700 cycle +$720 | 76% surv 69% | +$12,514 SAFE cap gain +$63,664 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$72 | 23 Oct 2026 | 20d left | -$0.00/sh | -$9 cycle +$11 | 77% surv 71% | +$14,080 SAFE cap gain +$65,230 |
| budget: banked $20 debit $9 (43% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,012/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $55/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,164/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($12,327/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-217/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,322 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 24.3% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 3.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-51,180 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $64.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $64-65.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $65.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $65.00 (3.6σ) | $20 | $-2,603 | +$48,547 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $66.62 (3.9σ) | $-3,230 | $-2,158 | +$48,992 | +$0 |
| +5% | $68.25 (4.2σ) | $-6,480 | $-1,712 | +$49,438 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.18/sh | +$2,360 cycle +$2,760 [+$2,274…+$2,896] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$35,110 NOT cap gain +$16,040 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$57 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.29/sh | +$572 cycle +$972 [-$235…+$1,085] · 68% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$20,207 NOT cap gain +$30,943 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.12/sh | +$241 cycle +$641 [-$334…+$651] · 59% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$30,771 NOT cap gain +$20,379 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.14/sh | +$284 cycle +$684 [-$570…+$784] · 54% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$18,221 NOT cap gain +$32,929 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$59 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.08/sh | -$168 cycle +$232 [-$1,130…+$308] · 37% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$16,399 NOT cap gain +$34,751 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $168 (42% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$232 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,496/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,164/mo) | -51% |
| vs normal income ($12,327/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,728/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,942 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 247.8% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 31.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-51,200 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.01 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.73 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.73 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.50 (1.7σ) | $400 | $-37,470 | +$13,680 | +$380 |
| +2.5% | $50.74 (2.0σ) | $-2,075 | $-37,131 | +$14,019 | -$2,095 |
| +5% | $51.98 (2.4σ) | $-4,550 | $-36,792 | +$14,358 | -$4,570 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.6σ) | $-27,460 | $-33,653 | +$17,497 | -$27,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.14/sh | +$2,050 cycle +$2,608 [+$1,945…+$2,512] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$37,534 NOT cap gain +$13,616 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$56 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.22/sh | +$398 cycle +$956 [-$350…+$785] · 60% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$22,495 NOT cap gain +$28,655 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$51 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.08/sh | +$152 cycle +$710 [-$387…+$461] · 53% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$32,974 NOT cap gain +$18,176 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$57 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.08/sh | +$142 cycle +$700 [-$655…+$505] · 49% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$20,476 NOT cap gain +$30,674 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$59 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.28/sh | -$503 cycle +$55 [-$1,456…-$187] · 17% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$16,574 NOT cap gain +$34,576 |
| budget: banked $558 debit $503 (90% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $2,579/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,185/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,164/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($12,327/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,919/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,150 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 234.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 29.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-46,062 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.83 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.83 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.50 (1.4σ) | $558 | $-39,584 | +$11,566 | +$540 |
| +2.5% | $49.71 (1.7σ) | $-1,624 | $-39,009 | +$12,141 | -$1,642 |
| +5% | $50.93 (2.1σ) | $-3,807 | $-38,434 | +$12,716 | -$3,825 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.6σ) | $-26,316 | $-32,507 | +$18,643 | -$26,334 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.10/sh | +$2,087 cycle +$2,923 [+$1,896…+$2,539] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$39,494 NOT cap gain +$11,656 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$54 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.40/sh | +$763 cycle +$1,599 [+$26…+$1,095] · 76% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$26,400 NOT cap gain +$24,750 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$50 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.05/sh | +$94 cycle +$930 [-$509…+$319] · 42% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$35,029 NOT cap gain +$16,121 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.02/sh | +$36 cycle +$872 [-$865…+$295] · 35% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$22,579 NOT cap gain +$28,571 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$58 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.32/sh | -$615 cycle +$221 [-$1,686…-$432] · 11% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$18,683 NOT cap gain +$32,467 |
| budget: banked $836 debit $615 (74% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$221 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,500/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,270/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,164/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($12,327/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,001/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,589 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 259.8% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 33.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-48,631 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.50 (1.1σ) | $836 | $-41,581 | +$9,569 | +$817 |
| +2.5% | $48.69 (1.4σ) | $-1,420 | $-41,137 | +$10,013 | -$1,439 |
| +5% | $49.88 (1.8σ) | $-3,676 | $-40,693 | +$10,457 | -$3,696 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.6σ) | $-29,431 | $-35,623 | +$15,527 | -$29,450 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.02/sh | +$1,937 cycle +$3,628 [+$1,576…+$1,964] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$43,336 NOT cap gain +$7,814 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$51 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.46/sh | +$877 cycle +$2,568 [-$164…+$749] · 69% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$32,253 NOT cap gain +$18,897 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 9 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.10/sh | +$196 cycle +$1,887 [-$625…+$82] · 29% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$39,756 NOT cap gain +$11,394 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | +$0.04/sh | +$79 cycle +$1,770 [-$1,177…-$143] · 20% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$28,504 NOT cap gain +$22,646 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$58 | 23 Oct 2026 | 23d left | -$0.61/sh | -$1,164 cycle +$527 [-$2,852…-$1,542] | 90% surv 89% | -$18,377 NOT cap gain +$32,773 |
| budget: banked $1,691 debit $1,164 (69% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$527 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,563/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,682/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,164/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($12,327/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,414/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,534 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 281.3% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 35.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-48,602 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-46.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,691 | $-45,274 | +$5,876 | +$1,672 |
| +2.5% | $46.64 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-470 | $-44,848 | +$6,302 | -$489 |
| +5% | $47.77 (1.2σ) | $-2,631 | $-44,423 | +$6,727 | -$2,650 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.6σ) | $-32,376 | $-38,568 | +$12,582 | -$32,395 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $230C 30 Sep 2026 (2d) | $233.06 | $230.77 | $4.65 | $1.59 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $3.06/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks NVDA 1:1); only $1.59 is live theta (~$1,590). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its CC-SS ($233.06), so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Gate on price: hold while NVDA is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $235, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $230C at ~$4.68 ($4,675), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $342.5C 28 Sep 2026 (0d) | $342.02 | $343.23 | $1.00 | $1.00 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.48 OTM = 0.1% (0.1x a typical daily move). The $1.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$340 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $343.23 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $342.5C at ~$1.02 ($509), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) | $149.98 | $156.11 | $1.62 | $1.62 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.02 OTM = 3.3% (1.0x a typical daily move). The $1.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$532 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $38.00/sh BELOW the $193.00 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $19,000 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $156.11 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $155C at ~$1.70 ($851), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $257.5C 30 Sep 2026 (2d) | $245.23 | $258.38 | $0.13 | $0.13 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.27 OTM = 5.0% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $0.13 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$416 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $258.38 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $782C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) | $767.62 | $783.17 | $0.52 | $0.52 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.38 OTM = 1.9% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $0.52 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,348 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $783.17 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $355C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) | $339.02 | $356.25 | $0.74 | $0.74 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.98 OTM = 4.7% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $0.74 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,792 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $356.25 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $355C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) | $339.02 | $356.25 | $0.74 | $0.74 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.98 OTM = 4.7% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $0.74 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$598 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $356.25 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) | $84.68 | $90.65 | $0.22 | $0.22 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.32 OTM = 6.3% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $0.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,206 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~4-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $89.55 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $335C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) | $310.68 | $337.75 | $1.93 | $1.93 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 24.32 OTM = 7.8% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $1.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$270 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $337.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $95C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) | $87.88 | $96.03 | $0.92 | $0.92 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.12 OTM = 8.1% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $0.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$492 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $96.03 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) | $29.07 | $32.28 | $0.23 | $0.23 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.93 OTM = 10.1% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $0.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$345 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $32.28 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3x $610C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) | $549.99 | $614.49 | $1.85 | $1.85 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 60.01 OTM = 10.9% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $1.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,333 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $614.49 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $85C 9 Oct 2026 (11d) | $73.37 | $85.75 | $0.72 | $0.72 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.63 OTM = 15.9% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $0.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$422 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $85.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (18d) | $339.02 | $359.26 | $3.75 | $3.75 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.98 OTM = 4.7% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $3.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (18d) | $104.34 | $112.23 | $0.88 | $0.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.66 OTM = 6.4% (3.2x a typical daily move). The $0.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $30C 16 Oct 2026 (18d) | $24.10 | $30.66 | $0.39 | $0.39 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.90 OTM = 24.5% (4.5x a typical daily move). The $0.39 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,103 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $30.66 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (18d) | $43.71 | $55.88 | $0.48 | $0.48 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.29 OTM = 25.8% (4.9x a typical daily move). The $0.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (18d) | $43.71 | $55.88 | $0.48 | $0.48 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.29 OTM = 25.8% (4.9x a typical daily move). The $0.48 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (25d) | $1,063.56 | $1,284.32 | $19.90 | $19.90 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 186.44 OTM = 17.5% (4.3x a typical daily move). The $19.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,854 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,284.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (25d) | $117.84 | $162.09 | $1.08 | $1.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 42.16 OTM = 35.8% (6.9x a typical daily move). The $1.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,019 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $162.09 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (32d) | $197.12 | $245.47 | $5.28 | $5.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 42.88 OTM = 21.8% (4.9x a typical daily move). The $5.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,548 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $245.47 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (53d) | $159.40 | $180.96 | $13.40 | $13.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.60 OTM = 6.6% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $13.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (53d) | $159.40 | $180.95 | $13.40 | $13.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.60 OTM = 6.6% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $13.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (53d) | $187.62 | $224.53 | $6.12 | $6.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.38 OTM = 17.3% (4.9x a typical daily move). The $6.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (53d) | $1,063.56 | $1,376.43 | $26.80 | $26.80 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 286.44 OTM = 26.9% (6.7x a typical daily move). The $26.80 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,188 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,376.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $2200C 20 Nov 2026 (53d) | $1,716.97 | $2,333.48 | $68.05 | $68.05 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 483.03 OTM = 28.1% (5.7x a typical daily move). The $68.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,343 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $2,333.48 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $430C 18 Dec 2026 (81d) | $380.39 | $435.38 | $3.67 | $3.67 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 49.61 OTM = 13.0% (8.8x a typical daily move). The $3.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,326 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $435.38 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (81d) | $197.12 | $278.82 | $6.85 | $6.85 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 72.88 OTM = 37.0% (8.6x a typical daily move). The $6.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,020 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $278.82 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $27.76 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $27.76 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 23.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $27.76 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 57.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $13.91 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.9% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $31.27 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 44.3% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $47.44 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.8% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $12.69 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 24.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $12.69 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 69.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $334.64 | 5x $342C 28 Sep 2026 (0d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $258C 30 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $335C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (81d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (32d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $95C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3 | $562.50 | 3x $610C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $430C 18 Dec 2026 (81d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $355C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $355C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (18d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $355C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $355C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (18d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (25d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (18d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (18d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (53d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (53d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (53d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (25d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $230C 30 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (53d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $85C 9 Oct 2026 (11d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $2200C 20 Nov 2026 (53d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $782C 2 Oct 2026 (4d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 207 | 56% | 61% | +5pp |
| 60-70% | 381 | 64% | 61% | -3pp |
| 70-80% | 519 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 682 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 1125 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2914 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 12 graded weeks; last week 1.36x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 167 real buyback(s) recorded · 84 roll(s), net +$0.58/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 84 real rolls: buyback $6.69/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.58/sh (58 of 84 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.