FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $11,360/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $6,788/mo ⚠ 1 negative E[net]
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $999,441 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETHA | - | 50 | $17.33 | NO_LEGS | no long LC@13 in any account |
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri | 20 | $40.78 | $57.99 | 20 × $58 30 Oct (24d) $360 cyc · $450/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:8%hist 3% | 20 × $45 9 Oct (3d) $280 cyc · $2,800/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% | 19 × $45 9 Oct (3d) $266 cyc · $2,660/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% | 🎯 18 × $44 9 Oct (3d) $414 cyc · $4,140/mo 86% survhist 87% · T:28%hist 24% | 16 × $42.50 9 Oct (3d) $784 cyc · $7,840/mo 74% survhist 83% · T:54%hist 46% | $5,897 | -$24,775 (412.9% IC) | 42.2% |
| IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 20 | $40.78 | $66.56 | 20 × $65 16 Oct (10d) $40 cyc · $120/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3% | 20 × $45 9 Oct (3d) $280 cyc · $2,800/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% | 19 × $45 9 Oct (3d) $266 cyc · $2,660/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% | 🎯 18 × $44 9 Oct (3d) $414 cyc · $4,140/mo 86% survhist 87% · T:28%hist 24% | 16 × $42.50 9 Oct (3d) $784 cyc · $7,840/mo 74% survhist 83% · T:54%hist 46% | $4,503 | -$40,186 (293.3% IC) | 63.2% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 14d Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $22.83 | $35.41 | 25 × $35 16 Oct (10d) $25 cyc · $75/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3% | 25 × $26 9 Oct (3d) $125 cyc · $1,250/mo 95% survhist 96% · T:11%hist 13% | 23 × $25 9 Oct (3d) $207 cyc · $2,070/mo 88% survhist 87% · T:24%hist 24% | 🎯 22 × $24.50 9 Oct (3d) $308 cyc · $3,080/mo 83% survhist 87% · T:35%hist 31% | 19 × $23.50 9 Oct (3d) $627 cyc · $6,270/mo 66% survhist 65% · T:69%hist 56% | $9,884 | -$23,686 (428.7% IC) | 55.1% |
| TOTAL (3) | 65 | following every 🎯 $1,136 cyc · $11,360/mo | $425 cyc · $645/mo | $685 cyc · $6,850/mo | $739 cyc · $7,390/mo | $1,136 cyc · $11,360/mo | $2,195 cyc · $21,950/mo | $20,284 | -$88,647 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 23 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$0.67/sh | +$1,682 cycle +$1,707 | 68% surv 54% | +$66 SAFE cap gain +$26,716 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 23 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$0.09/sh | +$215 cycle +$240 | 70% surv 61% | +$1,004 SAFE cap gain +$27,654 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$37 | 30 Oct 2026 | 19d left | +$0.42/sh | +$1,045 cycle +$1,070 | 72% surv 64% | +$3,889 SAFE cap gain +$30,539 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $75/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,044/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($6,088/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $75/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$991 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 17.9% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 1.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-26,888 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (4.0σ) | $25 | $-1,616 | +$25,034 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (4.3σ) | $-2,162 | $-2,005 | +$24,645 | +$0 |
| +5% | $36.75 (4.5σ) | $-4,350 | $-2,394 | +$24,256 | +$0 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.5σ) | $-11,750 | $-3,712 | +$22,938 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$28 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.38/sh | +$945 cycle +$1,070 [+$244…+$1,277] · 82% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$14,607 NOT cap gain +$12,043 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.29/sh | +$717 cycle +$842 [+$190…+$1,022] · 81% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$19,294 NOT cap gain +$7,356 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.06/sh | +$157 cycle +$282 [-$473…+$450] · 53% credit | 70% surv 60% | -$18,477 NOT cap gain +$8,173 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$135 cycle +$260 [-$687…+$460] · 45% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$13,361 NOT cap gain +$13,289 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,044/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($6,088/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,391 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 423.4% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 42.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-26,762 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (1.9σ) | $125 | $-20,011 | +$6,639 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (2.3σ) | $-1,500 | $-20,300 | +$6,350 | -$1,525 |
| +5% | $27.30 (2.7σ) | $-3,125 | $-20,589 | +$6,061 | -$3,150 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (10.1σ) | $-34,150 | $-26,112 | +$538 | -$22,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (23 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.27/sh | +$617 cycle +$824 [-$199…+$808] · 70% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$21,365 NOT cap gain +$5,285 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.32/sh | +$731 cycle +$938 [-$284…+$922] · 68% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$16,792 NOT cap gain +$9,858 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$99 cycle +$306 [-$804…+$249] · 40% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$20,505 NOT cap gain +$6,145 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$22 cycle +$229 [-$1,171…+$169] · 35% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$15,445 NOT cap gain +$11,205 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,070/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,044/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($6,088/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,076/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,727 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 429.5% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 42.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (23 ct) | $-24,587 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (1.3σ) | $207 | $-21,982 | +$4,668 | +$184 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (1.7σ) | $-1,230 | $-22,135 | +$4,515 | -$1,253 |
| +5% | $26.25 (2.0σ) | $-2,668 | $-22,288 | +$4,362 | -$2,691 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (10.1σ) | $-33,626 | $-26,528 | +$122 | -$22,816 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (22 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.26/sh | +$570 cycle +$878 [-$87…+$719] · 70% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$22,337 NOT cap gain +$4,313 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.29/sh | +$635 cycle +$943 [-$199…+$773] · 67% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$17,813 NOT cap gain +$8,837 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.03/sh | +$74 cycle +$382 [-$667…+$192] · 36% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$21,456 NOT cap gain +$5,194 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$28 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.01/sh | -$25 cycle +$283 [-$996…+$84] · 30% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$16,418 NOT cap gain +$10,232 |
| budget: banked $308 debit $25 (8% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$283 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $2,461/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,080/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,044/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($6,088/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,089/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,686 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 428.7% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 42.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (22 ct) | $-23,551 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-24.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $308 | $-22,907 | +$3,743 | +$286 |
| +2.5% | $25.11 (1.4σ) | $-1,039 | $-22,996 | +$3,654 | -$1,061 |
| +5% | $25.73 (1.7σ) | $-2,387 | $-23,085 | +$3,565 | -$2,409 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (10.1σ) | $-33,154 | $-26,526 | +$124 | -$22,814 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$25 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.59/sh | +$1,113 cycle +$1,740 [+$205…+$979] · 81% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$21,123 NOT cap gain +$5,527 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.24/sh | +$459 cycle +$1,086 [-$370…+$325] · 55% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$24,181 NOT cap gain +$2,469 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.23/sh | +$442 cycle +$1,069 [-$616…+$241] · 45% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$19,739 NOT cap gain +$6,911 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$29 cycle +$656 [-$903…-$149] · 18% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$23,234 NOT cap gain +$3,416 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$28 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.26/sh | -$503 cycle +$124 [-$1,837…-$760] · 1% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$16,574 NOT cap gain +$10,076 |
| budget: banked $627 debit $503 (80% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,329/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,270/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,044/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($6,088/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,288/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,995 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 398.1% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 39.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-20,615 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $23-24.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $23.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $627 | $-24,640 | +$2,010 | +$608 |
| +2.5% | $24.09 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-489 | $-24,549 | +$2,101 | -$508 |
| +5% | $24.68 (1.1σ) | $-1,606 | $-24,458 | +$2,192 | -$1,624 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (10.1σ) | $-30,172 | $-24,954 | +$1,696 | -$21,242 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,918/mo) | -89% |
| vs normal income ($7,835/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $290/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-39,130 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 13d left | 3-12d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $57.42 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $57-58.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $58.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $58.00 (2.4σ) | $360 | $1,489 | +$40,519 | +$2,300 |
| +2.5% | $59.45 (2.6σ) | $-2,540 | $1,971 | +$41,001 | +$2,300 |
| +5% | $60.90 (2.8σ) | $-5,440 | $2,452 | +$41,482 | +$2,300 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.03/sh | +$2,055 cycle +$2,335 [+$2,008…+$2,332] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$26,851 NOT cap gain +$12,179 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$51 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.34/sh | +$689 cycle +$969 [-$62…+$904] · 74% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$13,710 NOT cap gain +$25,320 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$103 cycle +$383 [-$548…+$263] · 47% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$22,459 NOT cap gain +$16,571 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.03/sh | +$62 cycle +$342 [-$868…+$250] · 41% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$9,673 NOT cap gain +$29,357 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.06/sh | -$120 cycle +$160 [-$1,109…+$58] · 28% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$7,524 NOT cap gain +$31,506 |
| budget: banked $280 debit $120 (43% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$160 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,475/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,918/mo) | -29% |
| vs normal income ($7,835/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,640/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,707 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 428.5% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 27.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-39,050 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $280 | $-28,907 | +$10,123 | +$220 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.1σ) | $-1,970 | $-28,533 | +$10,497 | -$2,030 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.6σ) | $-4,220 | $-28,160 | +$10,870 | -$4,280 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (6.3σ) | $-22,720 | $-25,089 | +$13,941 | -$22,780 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.03/sh | +$1,953 cycle +$2,219 [+$1,926…+$2,320] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$26,965 NOT cap gain +$12,065 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$51 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.34/sh | +$655 cycle +$921 [+$131…+$925] · 79% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$13,756 NOT cap gain +$25,274 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$98 cycle +$364 [-$381…+$300] · 54% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$22,475 NOT cap gain +$16,555 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.03/sh | +$59 cycle +$325 [-$610…+$305] · 49% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$9,687 NOT cap gain +$29,343 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.06/sh | -$114 cycle +$152 [-$826…+$130] · 38% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$7,529 NOT cap gain +$31,501 |
| budget: banked $266 debit $114 (43% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$152 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,351/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,660/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,918/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($7,835/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,509/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,422 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 407.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 26.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-37,098 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $266 | $-28,918 | +$10,112 | +$209 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.1σ) | $-1,871 | $-28,432 | +$10,598 | -$1,928 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.6σ) | $-4,009 | $-27,946 | +$11,084 | -$4,066 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (6.3σ) | $-21,584 | $-23,950 | +$15,080 | -$21,641 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.99/sh | +$1,776 cycle +$2,190 [+$1,616…+$2,013] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$29,323 NOT cap gain +$9,707 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$50 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.28/sh | +$501 cycle +$915 [-$107…+$669] · 71% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$16,090 NOT cap gain +$22,940 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$224 cycle +$638 [-$451…+$365] · 50% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$14,035 NOT cap gain +$24,995 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$47 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$34 cycle +$448 [-$509…+$143] · 37% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$24,719 NOT cap gain +$14,311 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.11/sh | -$201 cycle +$213 [-$1,002…-$82] · 19% credit | 88% surv 86% | -$9,796 NOT cap gain +$29,234 |
| budget: banked $414 debit $201 (49% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$213 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $2,013/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,140/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,918/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($7,835/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,998/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,775 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 412.9% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 26.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-35,154 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (1.3σ) | $414 | $-31,099 | +$7,931 | +$360 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (1.7σ) | $-1,566 | $-30,513 | +$8,517 | -$1,620 |
| +5% | $46.20 (2.2σ) | $-3,546 | $-29,928 | +$9,102 | -$3,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (6.3σ) | $-22,086 | $-24,449 | +$14,581 | -$22,140 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,482 cycle +$2,266 [+$1,306…+$1,627] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$32,739 NOT cap gain +$6,291 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$48 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.42/sh | +$665 cycle +$1,449 [+$8…+$642] · 76% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$21,380 NOT cap gain +$17,650 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$45 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$164 cycle +$948 [-$399…+$126] · 35% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$28,877 NOT cap gain +$10,153 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$63 cycle +$847 [-$767…-$29] · 23% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$17,318 NOT cap gain +$21,712 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.31/sh | -$498 cycle +$286 [-$1,517…-$676] | 90% surv 89% | -$10,883 NOT cap gain +$28,147 |
| budget: banked $784 debit $498 (63% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$286 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $1,239/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,840/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,918/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($7,835/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,716/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,006 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 400.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 25.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-31,264 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-43.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $784 | $-34,221 | +$4,809 | +$736 |
| +2.5% | $43.56 (1.1σ) | $-916 | $-33,443 | +$5,587 | -$964 |
| +5% | $44.62 (1.5σ) | $-2,616 | $-32,665 | +$6,365 | -$2,664 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (6.3σ) | $-21,616 | $-23,973 | +$15,057 | -$21,664 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 23 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$1.38/sh | +$2,763 cycle +$2,803 | 68% surv 54% | +$778 SAFE cap gain +$58,608 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$69 | 23 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$0.02/sh | +$42 cycle +$82 | 74% surv 65% | +$6,630 SAFE cap gain +$64,460 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$72 | 30 Oct 2026 | 19d left | +$0.24/sh | +$476 cycle +$516 | 78% surv 72% | +$15,128 SAFE cap gain +$72,958 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$73 | 30 Oct 2026 | 19d left | -$0.01/sh | -$18 cycle +$22 | 79% surv 73% | +$16,938 SAFE cap gain +$74,768 |
| budget: banked $40 debit $18 (46% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$22 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $9,752/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $120/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,918/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($7,835/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-107/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,071 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 22.4% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 2.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-57,840 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $64.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $64-65.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $65.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $65.00 (5.3σ) | $40 | $-1,985 | +$55,845 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $66.62 (5.6σ) | $-3,210 | $-1,491 | +$56,339 | +$0 |
| +5% | $68.25 (6.0σ) | $-6,460 | $-997 | +$56,833 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.03/sh | +$2,055 cycle +$2,335 [+$2,008…+$2,332] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$45,770 NOT cap gain +$12,060 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$51 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.34/sh | +$689 cycle +$969 [-$62…+$904] · 74% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$32,803 NOT cap gain +$25,027 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$103 cycle +$383 [-$548…+$263] · 47% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$41,453 NOT cap gain +$16,377 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.03/sh | +$62 cycle +$342 [-$868…+$250] · 41% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$28,821 NOT cap gain +$29,009 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.06/sh | -$120 cycle +$160 [-$1,109…+$58] · 28% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$26,700 NOT cap gain +$31,130 |
| budget: banked $280 debit $120 (43% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$160 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,475/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,918/mo) | -29% |
| vs normal income ($7,835/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,573/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$42,831 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 312.6% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 39.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-57,850 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $280 | $-47,825 | +$10,005 | +$240 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.1σ) | $-1,970 | $-47,483 | +$10,347 | -$2,010 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.6σ) | $-4,220 | $-47,141 | +$10,689 | -$4,260 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.0σ) | $-36,580 | $-42,222 | +$15,608 | -$36,620 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.03/sh | +$1,953 cycle +$2,219 [+$1,926…+$2,320] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$45,884 NOT cap gain +$11,946 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$51 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.34/sh | +$655 cycle +$921 [+$131…+$925] · 79% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$32,849 NOT cap gain +$24,981 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$98 cycle +$364 [-$381…+$300] · 54% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$41,470 NOT cap gain +$16,360 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.03/sh | +$59 cycle +$325 [-$610…+$305] · 49% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$28,837 NOT cap gain +$28,993 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$54 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.06/sh | -$114 cycle +$152 [-$826…+$130] · 38% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$26,706 NOT cap gain +$31,124 |
| budget: banked $266 debit $114 (43% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$152 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,351/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,660/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,918/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($7,835/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,439/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,690 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 297.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 37.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.2 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-54,958 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $266 | $-47,837 | +$9,993 | +$228 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.1σ) | $-1,871 | $-47,382 | +$10,448 | -$1,909 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.6σ) | $-4,009 | $-46,928 | +$10,902 | -$4,047 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.0σ) | $-34,751 | $-40,391 | +$17,439 | -$34,789 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.99/sh | +$1,776 cycle +$2,190 [+$1,616…+$2,013] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$48,215 NOT cap gain +$9,615 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$50 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.28/sh | +$501 cycle +$915 [-$107…+$669] · 71% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$35,156 NOT cap gain +$22,674 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$224 cycle +$638 [-$451…+$365] · 50% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$33,129 NOT cap gain +$24,701 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$47 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$34 cycle +$448 [-$509…+$143] · 37% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$43,688 NOT cap gain +$14,142 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.11/sh | -$201 cycle +$213 [-$1,002…-$82] · 19% credit | 88% surv 86% | -$28,947 NOT cap gain +$28,883 |
| budget: banked $414 debit $201 (49% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$213 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $2,013/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,140/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,918/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($7,835/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,925/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,186 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 293.3% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 37.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.1 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-52,074 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (1.3σ) | $414 | $-49,991 | +$7,839 | +$378 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (1.7σ) | $-1,566 | $-49,436 | +$8,394 | -$1,602 |
| +5% | $46.20 (2.2σ) | $-3,546 | $-48,882 | +$8,948 | -$3,582 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.0σ) | $-34,560 | $-40,198 | +$17,632 | -$34,596 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.93/sh | +$1,482 cycle +$2,266 [+$1,306…+$1,627] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$51,591 NOT cap gain +$6,239 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$48 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.42/sh | +$665 cycle +$1,449 [+$8…+$642] · 76% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$40,379 NOT cap gain +$17,451 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$45 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$164 cycle +$948 [-$399…+$126] · 35% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$47,792 NOT cap gain +$10,038 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$63 cycle +$847 [-$767…-$29] · 23% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$36,372 NOT cap gain +$21,458 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$53 | 30 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.31/sh | -$498 cycle +$286 [-$1,517…-$676] | 90% surv 89% | -$30,021 NOT cap gain +$27,809 |
| budget: banked $784 debit $498 (63% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$286 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $1,239/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,840/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,918/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($7,835/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,637/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,705 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 275.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 35.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-46,304 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-43.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $784 | $-53,073 | +$4,757 | +$752 |
| +2.5% | $43.56 (1.1σ) | $-916 | $-52,325 | +$5,505 | -$948 |
| +5% | $44.62 (1.5σ) | $-2,616 | $-51,577 | +$6,253 | -$2,648 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.0σ) | $-32,704 | $-38,338 | +$19,492 | -$32,736 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $780C 7 Oct 2026 (1d) | $778.55 | $780.81 | $1.44 | $1.44 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.45 OTM = 0.2% (0.3x a typical daily move). The $1.44 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$918 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $780.81 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 12x $780C at ~$1.44 ($1,725), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| DELL | Main:1299 | 3x $585C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) | $573.52 | $589.05 | $8.65 | $8.65 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.48 OTM = 2.0% (0.5x a typical daily move). The $8.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,201 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $589.05 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 3x $585C at ~$8.82 ($2,648), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $78C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) | $76.01 | $78.65 | $1.39 | $1.39 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.99 OTM = 2.6% (0.5x a typical daily move). The $1.39 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$360 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $68.55/sh BELOW the $146.55 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $41,129 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $78.65 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 6x $78C at ~$1.53 ($916), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10x $120C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) | $114.47 | $120.79 | $0.83 | $0.83 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.53 OTM = 4.8% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $0.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$740 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $120.79 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $120C at ~$0.80 ($800), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (45d) | $167.55 | $180.96 | $14.98 | $14.98 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.45 OTM = 1.5% (0.4x a typical daily move). The $14.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (45d) | $167.55 | $180.95 | $14.98 | $14.98 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.45 OTM = 1.5% (0.4x a typical daily move). The $14.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $2.98/sh BELOW the $172.98 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $2,985 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $170C at ~$14.81 ($14,812), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $260C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) | $251.86 | $261.15 | $0.59 | $0.59 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.14 OTM = 3.2% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $0.59 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$548 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $261.15 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $89C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) | $85.39 | $89.65 | $0.57 | $0.57 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.61 OTM = 4.2% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $0.57 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,200 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $88.55 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1125C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) | $1,062.59 | $1,130.50 | $3.28 | $3.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 62.41 OTM = 5.9% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $3.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,725 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,130.50 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5x $91C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) | $85.09 | $92.06 | $0.60 | $0.60 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.91 OTM = 6.9% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $0.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$503 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $92.06 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $300C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) | $280.30 | $301.91 | $1.18 | $1.18 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.70 OTM = 7.0% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $1.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$186 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $301.91 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1830C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) | $1,684.28 | $1,843.40 | $5.55 | $5.55 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 145.72 OTM = 8.7% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $5.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,335 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,843.40 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $25C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) | $22.79 | $25.19 | $0.12 | $0.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.21 OTM = 9.7% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,400 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $24.88 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $340C 12 Oct 2026 (6d) | $332.13 | $341.68 | $0.99 | $0.99 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.87 OTM = 2.4% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $0.99 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$815 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $341.68 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (10d) | $342.04 | $357.01 | $2.23 | $2.23 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.96 OTM = 3.8% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $2.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,940 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $357.01 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (10d) | $342.04 | $359.26 | $2.23 | $2.23 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.96 OTM = 3.8% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $2.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (10d) | $342.04 | $362.52 | $1.41 | $1.41 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.96 OTM = 5.3% (2.8x a typical daily move). The $1.41 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,237 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $362.52 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1150C 16 Oct 2026 (10d) | $1,062.59 | $1,160.10 | $7.30 | $7.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 87.41 OTM = 8.2% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $7.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,009 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,160.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 (10d) | $29.79 | $33.01 | $0.51 | $0.51 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.71 OTM = 9.1% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $0.51 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$690 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $33.01 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $115C 23 Oct 2026 (17d) | $111.70 | $116.22 | $1.55 | $1.55 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.30 OTM = 2.9% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $1.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,407 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $116.22 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (17d) | $241.70 | $252.15 | $2.92 | $2.92 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.30 OTM = 3.4% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $2.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,103 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $252.15 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $210C 23 Oct 2026 (17d) | $190.35 | $213.03 | $3.60 | $3.60 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.65 OTM = 10.3% (2.7x a typical daily move). The $3.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,447 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $213.03 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 (17d) | $89.75 | $101.78 | $2.06 | $2.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.25 OTM = 11.4% (2.6x a typical daily move). The $2.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$865 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.78 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $133C 23 Oct 2026 (17d) | $116.51 | $135.34 | $2.04 | $2.04 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.49 OTM = 14.2% (3.2x a typical daily move). The $2.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,143 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $135.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $195C 30 Oct 2026 (24d) | $175.25 | $196.56 | $3.08 | $3.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.75 OTM = 11.3% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $3.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$756 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $196.56 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (45d) | $180.00 | $224.53 | $2.69 | $2.69 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 40.00 OTM = 22.2% (6.6x a typical daily move). The $2.69 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (45d) | $40.77 | $61.43 | $0.77 | $0.77 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.23 OTM = 47.2% (8.6x a typical daily move). The $0.77 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,758 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $61.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (45d) | $40.77 | $61.42 | $0.77 | $0.77 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.23 OTM = 47.2% (8.6x a typical daily move). The $0.77 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,746 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $61.42 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (73d) | $381.24 | $419.00 | $5.33 | $5.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.76 OTM = 8.3% (6.0x a typical daily move). The $5.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,949 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $419.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (73d) | $190.35 | $278.82 | $3.83 | $3.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 79.65 OTM = 41.8% (10.0x a typical daily move). The $3.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,020 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $278.82 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $26.75 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $26.75 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 26.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $26.75 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 59.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $12.51 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 39.7% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $33.28 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 40.7% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $48.89 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 30.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $11.22 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.0% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $11.22 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 72.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $334.64 | 5x $340C 12 Oct 2026 (6d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $260C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $300C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (73d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $210C 23 Oct 2026 (17d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $89C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) |
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5 | $87.00 | 5x $91C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 (17d) |
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3 | $562.50 | 3x $585C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (73d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (10d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $32C 16 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10 | $114.95 | 10x $120C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $115C 23 Oct 2026 (17d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $133C 23 Oct 2026 (17d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (45d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (45d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (45d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (45d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1125C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1150C 16 Oct 2026 (10d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (17d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (45d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $78C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1830C 9 Oct 2026 (3d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $195C 30 Oct 2026 (24d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $780C 7 Oct 2026 (1d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 208 | 56% | 61% | +5pp |
| 60-70% | 392 | 64% | 62% | -2pp |
| 70-80% | 527 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 711 | 84% | 85% | +0pp |
| 90-100% | 1159 | 94% | 96% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 37% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2997 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.08x (W40) to 1.59x (W34) over 13 graded weeks; last week 0.08x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 184 real buyback(s) recorded · 99 roll(s), net +$0.67/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 99 real rolls: buyback $6.01/sh, replacement credit financed 111% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.67/sh (70 of 99 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.