FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $11,066/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $3,173/mo · plus $968/mo CC-safe on 1 shallow row(s) ⓘ
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $1,158,085 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| IREN-LC45 ↗ ▼ DOWN -4.3% Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 20 | $37.06 | $57.87 | 20 × $65 16 Oct (8d) $40 cyc · $150/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3% | 20 × $42.50 16 Oct (8d) $460 cyc · $1,725/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 24% | 🎯 18 × $41 16 Oct (8d) $702 cyc · $2,632/mo 84% survhist 87% · T:32%hist 31% | 19 × $40 16 Oct (8d) $1,045 cyc · $3,919/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:44%hist 40% | 19 × $38 16 Oct (8d) $2,090 cyc · $7,838/mo 62% survhist 65% · T:79%hist 68% | $6,237 | -$29,671 (494.5% IC) | 56.2% |
| IREN-LC50 ↗ ▼ DOWN -4.3% RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 20 | $37.06 | $66.41 | 20 × $65 23 Oct (15d) $20 cyc · $40/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3% | 20 × $42.50 16 Oct (8d) $460 cyc · $1,725/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 24% | 🎯 18 × $41 16 Oct (8d) $702 cyc · $2,632/mo 84% survhist 87% · T:32%hist 31% | 19 × $40 16 Oct (8d) $1,045 cyc · $3,919/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:44%hist 40% | 19 × $38 16 Oct (8d) $2,090 cyc · $7,838/mo 62% survhist 65% · T:79%hist 68% | $4,843 | -$45,037 (328.7% IC) | 79.2% |
| SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock | |||||||||||
| CRCL ↗⚡ER 27d BORDERLINE 28% -1.9% Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 5 | $79.28 | $90.17 | 🎯 5 × $91 30 Oct (22d) $710 cyc · $968/mo 82% survhist 87% · T:38%hist 31% above floor +$415 · hole 5.6mo | 5 × $90 16 Oct (8d) $210 cyc · $788/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 13% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 6.9mo | 5 × $87 16 Oct (8d) $375 cyc · $1,406/mo 84% survhist 87% · T:33%hist 31% locks −$1,210 · hole 3.9mo | 5 × $85 16 Oct (8d) $535 cyc · $2,006/mo 78% survhist 83% · T:45%hist 40% locks −$2,050 · hole 2.7mo | 5 × $81 16 Oct (8d) $1,050 cyc · $3,938/mo 61% survhist 65% · T:81%hist 79% locks −$3,535 · hole 1.4mo | $769 | +$415 whole if assigned | 13.7% whole ~26 Mar on 🎯 |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 12d ▼ DOWN -3.3% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 25 | $20.61 | $35.40 | — | 25 × $24 16 Oct (8d) $125 cyc · $469/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 24% | 19 × $22.50 16 Oct (8d) $570 cyc · $2,138/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:44%hist 40% | 🎯 21 × $22 16 Oct (8d) $861 cyc · $3,229/mo 73% survhist 83% · T:56%hist 46% | 23 × $21 16 Oct (8d) $1,725 cyc · $6,469/mo 59% survhist 68% · T:86%hist 79% | $12,305 | -$27,286 (493.9% IC) | 71.8% |
| TOTAL (4) | 70 | following every 🎯 $2,975 cyc · $9,462/mo | $770 cyc · $1,158/mo 3 of 4 | $1,255 cyc · $4,706/mo | $2,349 cyc · $8,809/mo | $3,486 cyc · $13,072/mo | $6,955 cyc · $26,081/mo | $24,154 | -$101,994 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $968/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,783/mo) | -46% |
| vs normal income ($3,565/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $898/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-5,845 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 12d left | 3-11d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $90.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $90-92.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $92.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $91.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $710 | $1,234 | +$6,954 | +$2,005 |
| +2.5% | $93.27 (1.2σ) | $-427 | $1,309 | +$7,029 | +$2,005 |
| +5% | $95.55 (1.4σ) | $-1,565 | $1,384 | +$7,104 | +$2,005 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.83/sh | +$416 cycle +$626 [+$352…+$717] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$618 SAFE cap gain +$6,338 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$94 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$124 cycle +$334 [-$70…+$388] · 67% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$2,305 SAFE cap gain +$8,025 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$92 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$66 cycle +$276 [-$67…+$305] · 65% credit | 70% surv 60% | +$1,181 SAFE cap gain +$6,901 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$96 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$217 [-$207…+$244] · 50% credit | 77% surv 70% | +$3,254 SAFE cap gain +$8,974 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$169 cycle +$41 [-$413…+$69] · 33% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$3,612 SAFE cap gain +$9,332 |
| budget: banked $210 debit $169 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$41 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,791/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $788/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,783/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($3,565/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $718/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-5,740 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $89.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $89-90.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $90.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $90.00 (1.5σ) | $210 | $201 | +$5,921 | +$1,005 |
| +2.5% | $92.25 (1.8σ) | $-915 | $275 | +$5,995 | +$1,005 |
| +5% | $94.50 (2.1σ) | $-2,040 | $350 | +$6,070 | +$1,005 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$87 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.89/sh | +$447 cycle +$822 [+$310…+$587] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$786 NOT cap gain +$4,934 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$90 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.92/sh | +$458 cycle +$833 [+$229…+$564] · 92% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$672 SAFE cap gain +$6,392 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$89 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$96 cycle +$471 [-$109…+$179] · 54% credit | 70% surv 60% | -$223 NOT cap gain +$5,497 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$93 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$32 cycle +$407 [-$285…+$114] · 37% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$1,845 SAFE cap gain +$7,565 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$96 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.71/sh | -$353 cycle +$22 [-$748…-$285] · 8% credit | 81% surv 78% | +$3,060 SAFE cap gain +$8,780 |
| budget: banked $375 debit $353 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$22 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,416/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,406/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,783/mo) | -21% |
| vs normal income ($3,565/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,337/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,210 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 5.8% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 3.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-5,740 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $86.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $86-87.79 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $87.79 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $87.00 (1.1σ) | $375 | $-1,233 | +$4,487 | -$330 |
| +2.5% | $89.17 (1.4σ) | $-712 | $-1,161 | +$4,559 | -$330 |
| +5% | $91.35 (1.7σ) | $-1,800 | $-1,089 | +$4,631 | -$330 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$85 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.93/sh | +$465 cycle +$1,000 [+$294…+$560] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$1,674 NOT cap gain +$4,046 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$88 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.95/sh | +$473 cycle +$1,008 [+$205…+$539] · 92% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$219 NOT cap gain +$5,501 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$87 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.23/sh | +$115 cycle +$650 [-$119…+$165] · 50% credit | 70% surv 60% | -$1,110 NOT cap gain +$4,610 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$91 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$47 cycle +$582 [-$293…+$75] · 34% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$954 SAFE cap gain +$6,674 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$96 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$1.02/sh | -$512 cycle +$23 [-$992…-$521] · 1% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$3,060 SAFE cap gain +$8,780 |
| budget: banked $535 debit $512 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,103/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,006/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,783/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($3,565/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,937/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,050 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 9.8% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 6.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-5,750 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $84.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $84-86.13 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $86.13 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $85.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $535 | $-2,139 | +$3,581 | -$170 |
| +2.5% | $87.12 (1.1σ) | $-527 | $-2,069 | +$3,651 | -$1,170 |
| +5% | $89.25 (1.4σ) | $-1,590 | $-1,999 | +$3,721 | -$1,170 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$81 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$1.00/sh | +$498 cycle +$1,548 [+$261…+$407] · 98% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$3,258 NOT cap gain +$2,462 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$84 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.99/sh | +$496 cycle +$1,546 [+$127…+$351] · 88% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$1,813 NOT cap gain +$3,907 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$83 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.30/sh | +$148 cycle +$1,198 [-$170…+$25] · 30% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$2,694 NOT cap gain +$3,026 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$87 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$71 cycle +$1,121 [-$391…-$98] · 14% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$638 NOT cap gain +$5,082 |
| SS $87 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$1.56/sh | -$781 cycle +$269 [-$1,542…-$1,054] | 90% surv 89% | +$3,839 SAFE cap gain +$9,559 |
| budget: banked $1,050 debit $781 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$269 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $563/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,938/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,783/mo) | +121% |
| vs normal income ($3,565/mo) | 110% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,868/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,535 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 16.8% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 10.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-5,770 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.19 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-83.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $83.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,050 | $-3,756 | +$1,964 | +$345 |
| +2.5% | $83.02 (≤1σ, normal week) | $38 | $-3,689 | +$2,031 | -$667 |
| +5% | $85.05 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-975 | $-3,622 | +$2,098 | -$1,680 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $87.00 (1.1σ) | $-1,950 | $-3,558 | +$2,162 | -$2,655 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.40/sh | +$996 cycle +$1,121 [+$849…+$1,423] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$23,104 NOT cap gain +$7,858 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$24 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.45/sh | +$1,120 cycle +$1,245 [+$854…+$1,619] · 98% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$22,204 NOT cap gain +$8,758 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$75 cycle +$200 [-$204…+$446] · 58% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$22,256 NOT cap gain +$8,706 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$81 cycle +$206 [-$321…+$550] · 56% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$21,256 NOT cap gain +$9,707 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $469/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -85% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 8% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $469/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,383 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 513.7% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 51.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.6 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-31,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.76 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-24.18 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.18 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.00 (1.4σ) | $125 | $-24,100 | +$6,863 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $24.60 (1.6σ) | $-1,375 | $-24,407 | +$6,555 | -$1,400 |
| +5% | $25.20 (1.9σ) | $-2,875 | $-24,715 | +$6,248 | -$2,900 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.8σ) | $-39,150 | $-32,151 | -$1,189 | -$14,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.36/sh | +$681 cycle +$1,251 [+$419…+$778] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$25,949 NOT cap gain +$5,013 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$23 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.39/sh | +$741 cycle +$1,311 [+$326…+$820] · 94% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$25,114 NOT cap gain +$5,849 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$352 cycle +$922 [+$39…+$406] · 81% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$25,503 NOT cap gain +$5,459 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.19/sh | +$352 cycle +$922 [+$39…+$406] · 81% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$25,503 NOT cap gain +$5,459 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$25 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.30/sh | -$565 cycle +$5 [-$1,231…-$600] · 6% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$22,445 NOT cap gain +$8,517 |
| budget: banked $570 debit $565 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,999/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,138/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,150/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,946 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 433.4% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 43.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-23,674 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $22.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $22-22.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $22.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $22.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $570 | $-26,630 | +$4,332 | +$551 |
| +2.5% | $23.06 (1.0σ) | $-499 | $-26,581 | +$4,382 | -$518 |
| +5% | $23.62 (1.2σ) | $-1,568 | $-26,532 | +$4,431 | -$1,586 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.8σ) | $-32,129 | $-30,950 | +$12 | -$13,699 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (21 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.35/sh | +$725 cycle +$1,586 [+$406…+$735] · 98% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$26,610 NOT cap gain +$4,353 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$22 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.37/sh | +$780 cycle +$1,641 [+$270…+$745] · 91% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$25,779 NOT cap gain +$5,183 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$22 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$363 cycle +$1,224 [-$23…+$333] · 73% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$26,197 NOT cap gain +$4,766 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.17/sh | +$363 cycle +$1,224 [-$23…+$333] · 73% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$26,197 NOT cap gain +$4,766 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$25 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.38/sh | -$808 cycle +$53 [-$1,648…-$982] · 1% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$21,406 NOT cap gain +$9,557 |
| budget: banked $861 debit $808 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $1,785/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,229/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,237/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,286 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 493.9% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 49.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.4 mo |
| Surgical close (21 ct) | $-26,113 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $21.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $22-22.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $22.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $22.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $861 | $-27,335 | +$3,628 | +$840 |
| +2.5% | $22.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-294 | $-27,397 | +$3,566 | -$315 |
| +5% | $23.10 (1.0σ) | $-1,449 | $-27,459 | +$3,504 | -$1,470 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.8σ) | $-36,330 | $-33,211 | -$2,249 | -$15,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (23 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$21 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.32/sh | +$737 cycle +$2,462 [+$292…+$535] · 95% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$27,724 NOT cap gain +$3,239 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$21 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$771 cycle +$2,496 [+$68…+$470] · 80% credit | 68% surv 58% | -$26,914 NOT cap gain +$4,048 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$342 cycle +$2,067 [-$188…+$113] · 46% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$27,344 NOT cap gain +$3,619 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$342 cycle +$2,067 [-$188…+$113] · 46% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$27,344 NOT cap gain +$3,619 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.72/sh | -$1,646 cycle +$79 [-$3,169…-$2,225] | 93% surv 93% | -$17,406 NOT cap gain +$13,556 |
| budget: banked $1,725 debit $1,646 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$79 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $435/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,469/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,100/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($6,200/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,473/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,403 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 568.4% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 56.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.1 mo |
| Surgical close (23 ct) | $-28,750 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $20.79 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $21-21.86 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $21.86 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $21.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,725 | $-28,460 | +$2,502 | +$1,702 |
| +2.5% | $21.52 (≤1σ, normal week) | $518 | $-28,624 | +$2,338 | +$495 |
| +5% | $22.05 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-690 | $-28,788 | +$2,174 | -$713 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.8σ) | $-41,308 | $-36,249 | -$5,287 | -$18,998 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$1.71/sh | +$3,415 cycle +$3,455 | 68% surv 54% | +$21,475 SAFE cap gain +$68,835 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$69 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$162 cycle +$202 | 75% surv 67% | +$28,611 SAFE cap gain +$75,971 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$73 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$534 cycle +$574 | 78% surv 72% | +$37,173 SAFE cap gain +$84,533 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-59/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-47,370 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $64.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $64-65.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $65.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $65.00 (7.5σ) | $40 | $18,060 | +$65,420 | +$17,960 |
| +2.5% | $66.62 (8.0σ) | $-3,210 | $18,612 | +$65,972 | +$17,960 |
| +5% | $68.25 (8.4σ) | $-6,460 | $19,165 | +$66,525 | +$17,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.78/sh | +$1,567 cycle +$2,027 [+$1,566…+$2,238] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$32,603 NOT cap gain +$14,757 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.40/sh | +$800 cycle +$1,260 [+$519…+$1,368] · 97% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$26,491 NOT cap gain +$20,869 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$132 cycle +$592 [-$309…+$626] · 57% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$24,819 NOT cap gain +$22,541 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$44 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$81 cycle +$541 [-$228…+$473] · 57% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$29,549 NOT cap gain +$17,811 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.13/sh | -$261 cycle +$199 [-$753…+$204] · 34% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$22,872 NOT cap gain +$24,488 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $261 (57% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$199 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,179/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,725/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,516/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,288 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 504.8% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 32.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-47,380 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.74 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.74 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.50 (1.5σ) | $460 | $-34,170 | +$13,190 | +$380 |
| +2.5% | $43.56 (1.8σ) | $-1,665 | $-33,809 | +$13,551 | -$1,745 |
| +5% | $44.62 (2.0σ) | $-3,790 | $-33,448 | +$13,912 | -$3,870 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (5.2σ) | $-27,540 | $-29,410 | +$17,950 | -$26,620 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.73/sh | +$1,322 cycle +$2,024 [+$1,206…+$1,659] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$36,108 NOT cap gain +$11,252 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.32/sh | +$572 cycle +$1,274 [+$220…+$861] · 87% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$29,978 NOT cap gain +$17,382 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$289 cycle +$991 [+$18…+$525] · 77% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$33,772 NOT cap gain +$13,588 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.38/sh | -$677 cycle +$25 [-$1,290…-$483] · 11% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$24,208 NOT cap gain +$23,152 |
| budget: banked $702 debit $677 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$25 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $2,770/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,632/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,439/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,671 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 494.5% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 31.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-42,651 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $702 | $-37,430 | +$9,930 | +$630 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.3σ) | $-1,143 | $-36,877 | +$10,483 | -$1,215 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.6σ) | $-2,988 | $-36,323 | +$11,037 | -$3,060 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (5.2σ) | $-27,198 | $-29,160 | +$18,200 | -$26,370 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.70/sh | +$1,335 cycle +$2,380 [+$1,126…+$1,560] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$38,096 NOT cap gain +$9,264 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$505 cycle +$1,550 [+$33…+$614] · 79% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$32,047 NOT cap gain +$15,313 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$248 cycle +$1,293 [-$111…+$337] · 58% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$35,814 NOT cap gain +$11,546 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.41/sh | -$772 cycle +$273 [-$1,570…-$782] · 5% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$26,304 NOT cap gain +$21,056 |
| budget: banked $1,045 debit $772 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$273 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,653/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,919/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,717/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,915 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 548.6% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 35.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.2 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-45,020 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,045 | $-39,431 | +$7,929 | +$969 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $-855 | $-38,991 | +$8,369 | -$931 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.3σ) | $-2,755 | $-38,551 | +$8,809 | -$2,831 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (5.2σ) | $-30,305 | $-32,221 | +$15,139 | -$29,431 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.64/sh | +$1,218 cycle +$3,308 [+$940…+$1,119] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$41,848 NOT cap gain +$5,512 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.45/sh | +$846 cycle +$2,936 [+$303…+$647] · 93% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$37,681 NOT cap gain +$9,679 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$317 cycle +$2,407 [-$335…+$58] · 31% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$35,870 NOT cap gain +$11,490 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$141 cycle +$2,231 [-$347…-$57] · 20% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$39,556 NOT cap gain +$7,804 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.77/sh | -$1,469 cycle +$621 [-$2,770…-$1,948] | 91% surv 91% | -$23,616 NOT cap gain +$23,744 |
| budget: banked $2,090 debit $1,469 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$621 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,154/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,838/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,636/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,670 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 594.5% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 37.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.6 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-45,001 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,090 | $-43,066 | +$4,294 | +$2,014 |
| +2.5% | $38.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $285 | $-42,648 | +$4,712 | +$209 |
| +5% | $39.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,520 | $-42,230 | +$5,130 | -$1,596 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (5.2σ) | $-33,060 | $-34,976 | +$12,384 | -$32,186 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$1.35/sh | +$2,710 cycle +$2,730 | 69% surv 54% | +$966 SAFE cap gain +$66,936 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$68 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.30/sh | +$594 cycle +$614 | 73% surv 62% | +$5,606 SAFE cap gain +$71,576 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$68 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.30/sh | +$594 cycle +$614 | 73% surv 62% | +$5,606 SAFE cap gain +$71,576 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $40/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-267/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,801 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 20.4% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 2.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-66,010 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $64.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $64-65.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $65.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $65.00 (5.5σ) | $20 | $-1,744 | +$64,226 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $66.62 (5.8σ) | $-3,230 | $-1,260 | +$64,710 | +$0 |
| +5% | $68.25 (6.1σ) | $-6,480 | $-775 | +$65,195 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.78/sh | +$1,567 cycle +$2,027 [+$1,566…+$2,238] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$51,442 NOT cap gain +$14,528 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.40/sh | +$800 cycle +$1,260 [+$519…+$1,368] · 97% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$45,453 NOT cap gain +$20,517 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$132 cycle +$592 [-$309…+$626] · 57% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$43,823 NOT cap gain +$22,147 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$44 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$81 cycle +$541 [-$228…+$473] · 57% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$48,469 NOT cap gain +$17,501 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.13/sh | -$261 cycle +$199 [-$753…+$204] · 34% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$41,918 NOT cap gain +$24,052 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $261 (57% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$199 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,179/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,725/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | -56% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,418/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,361 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 345.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 44.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-65,990 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-42.74 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.74 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.50 (1.5σ) | $460 | $-53,009 | +$12,961 | +$440 |
| +2.5% | $43.56 (1.8σ) | $-1,665 | $-52,692 | +$13,278 | -$1,685 |
| +5% | $44.62 (2.0σ) | $-3,790 | $-52,376 | +$13,594 | -$3,810 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (7.1σ) | $-41,400 | $-46,772 | +$19,198 | -$41,420 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.73/sh | +$1,322 cycle +$2,024 [+$1,206…+$1,659] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$54,890 NOT cap gain +$11,080 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.32/sh | +$572 cycle +$1,274 [+$220…+$861] · 87% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$48,883 NOT cap gain +$17,087 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$289 cycle +$991 [+$18…+$525] · 77% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$52,614 NOT cap gain +$13,356 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.38/sh | -$677 cycle +$25 [-$1,290…-$483] · 11% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$43,239 NOT cap gain +$22,731 |
| budget: banked $702 debit $677 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$25 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $2,770/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,632/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,330/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$45,037 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 328.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 41.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.8 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-59,400 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $702 | $-56,212 | +$9,758 | +$684 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.3σ) | $-1,143 | $-55,701 | +$10,269 | -$1,161 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.6σ) | $-2,988 | $-55,191 | +$10,779 | -$3,006 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (7.1σ) | $-39,672 | $-45,042 | +$20,928 | -$39,690 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.70/sh | +$1,335 cycle +$2,380 [+$1,126…+$1,560] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$56,833 NOT cap gain +$9,137 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$505 cycle +$1,550 [+$33…+$614] · 79% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$50,907 NOT cap gain +$15,063 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$248 cycle +$1,293 [-$111…+$337] · 58% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$54,610 NOT cap gain +$11,360 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.41/sh | -$772 cycle +$273 [-$1,570…-$782] · 5% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$45,290 NOT cap gain +$20,680 |
| budget: banked $1,045 debit $772 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$273 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,653/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,919/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,614/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$49,135 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 358.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 45.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.3 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-62,700 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,045 | $-58,168 | +$7,802 | +$1,026 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.1σ) | $-855 | $-57,770 | +$8,200 | -$874 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.3σ) | $-2,755 | $-57,372 | +$8,598 | -$2,774 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (7.1σ) | $-43,472 | $-48,843 | +$17,127 | -$43,491 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.64/sh | +$1,218 cycle +$3,308 [+$940…+$1,119] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$60,501 NOT cap gain +$5,469 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$40 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.45/sh | +$846 cycle +$2,936 [+$303…+$647] · 93% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$56,415 NOT cap gain +$9,555 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$317 cycle +$2,407 [-$335…+$58] · 31% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$54,646 NOT cap gain +$11,324 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 23 Oct 2026 | 11d left | +$0.07/sh | +$141 cycle +$2,231 [-$347…-$57] · 20% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$58,269 NOT cap gain +$7,701 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.77/sh | -$1,469 cycle +$621 [-$2,770…-$1,948] | 91% surv 91% | -$42,644 NOT cap gain +$23,326 |
| budget: banked $2,090 debit $1,469 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$621 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,154/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,838/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,900/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($7,800/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,533/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$51,890 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 378.8% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 48.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.7 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-62,681 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-39.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,090 | $-61,719 | +$4,251 | +$2,071 |
| +2.5% | $38.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $285 | $-61,341 | +$4,629 | +$266 |
| +5% | $39.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,520 | $-60,963 | +$5,007 | -$1,539 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (7.1σ) | $-46,227 | $-51,598 | +$14,372 | -$46,246 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $340C 12 Oct 2026 (4d) | $336.83 | $341.68 | $1.56 | $1.56 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.17 OTM = 0.9% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $1.56 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$815 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $341.68 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $340C at ~$1.56 ($778), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) | $349.70 | $357.01 | $4.38 | $4.38 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.30 OTM = 1.5% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $4.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,940 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $357.01 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 15x $355C at ~$4.66 ($6,994), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) | $349.70 | $359.26 | $4.38 | $4.38 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.30 OTM = 1.5% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $4.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $355C at ~$4.66 ($2,331), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $89C 9 Oct 2026 (1d) | $82.81 | $89.65 | $0.12 | $0.12 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.19 OTM = 7.5% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,200 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $88.55 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $300C 9 Oct 2026 (1d) | $273.26 | $301.91 | $0.15 | $0.15 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 26.74 OTM = 9.8% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$186 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $301.91 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMD | Main:1299 | 2x $685C 12 Oct 2026 (4d) | $633.90 | $689.30 | $0.61 | $0.61 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 51.10 OTM = 8.1% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $0.61 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$850 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $689.30 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $90C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) | $70.07 | $90.54 | $0.08 | $0.08 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.93 OTM = 28.4% (5.4x a typical daily move). The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$295 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $90.54 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $23C 9 Oct 2026 (1d) | $20.58 | $23.10 | $0.12 | $0.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.42 OTM = 11.8% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$479 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $22.89 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1150C 12 Oct 2026 (4d) | $1,072.66 | $1,153.80 | $1.86 | $1.86 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 77.34 OTM = 7.2% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $1.86 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,875 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,153.80 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) | $349.70 | $362.52 | $2.96 | $2.96 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.30 OTM = 2.9% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $2.96 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,237 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $362.52 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $275C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) | $258.85 | $275.40 | $0.49 | $0.49 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.15 OTM = 6.2% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $0.49 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$175 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $275.40 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1150C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) | $1,072.66 | $1,160.10 | $7.47 | $7.47 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 77.34 OTM = 7.2% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $7.47 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,009 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,160.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $123C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) | $109.88 | $124.38 | $0.70 | $0.70 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.12 OTM = 11.9% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $0.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $124.38 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) | $28.82 | $33.01 | $0.21 | $0.21 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.68 OTM = 12.8% (2.8x a typical daily move). The $0.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$690 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $33.01 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10x $120C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) | $105.42 | $120.58 | $0.29 | $0.29 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.58 OTM = 13.8% (3.8x a typical daily move). The $0.29 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$530 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $120.58 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1900C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) | $1,643.67 | $1,915.57 | $5.75 | $5.75 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 256.33 OTM = 15.6% (3.8x a typical daily move). The $5.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,552 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,915.57 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $115C 23 Oct 2026 (15d) | $110.00 | $116.22 | $1.14 | $1.14 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.00 OTM = 4.5% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $1.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,407 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $116.22 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (15d) | $234.10 | $252.15 | $0.88 | $0.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.90 OTM = 6.8% (3.9x a typical daily move). The $0.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,103 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $252.15 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $200C 23 Oct 2026 (15d) | $173.60 | $202.48 | $1.46 | $1.46 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 26.40 OTM = 15.2% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $1.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,083 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $202.48 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 (15d) | $85.45 | $101.78 | $0.89 | $0.89 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.55 OTM = 17.0% (3.9x a typical daily move). The $0.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$865 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.78 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $800C 30 Oct 2026 (22d) | $774.67 | $803.08 | $1.28 | $1.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 25.33 OTM = 3.3% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $1.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,636 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $803.08 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3x $650C 30 Oct 2026 (22d) | $570.75 | $663.52 | $8.97 | $8.97 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 79.25 OTM = 13.9% (3.8x a typical daily move). The $8.97 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,041 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $663.52 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $195C 30 Oct 2026 (22d) | $166.33 | $196.56 | $0.98 | $0.98 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.67 OTM = 17.2% (5.6x a typical daily move). The $0.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$756 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $196.56 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (43d) | $148.09 | $180.96 | $6.30 | $6.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 21.91 OTM = 14.8% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $6.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (43d) | $174.75 | $224.53 | $1.97 | $1.97 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 45.25 OTM = 25.9% (7.7x a typical daily move). The $1.97 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (43d) | $37.06 | $50.52 | $1.13 | $1.13 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.94 OTM = 32.2% (6.1x a typical daily move). The $1.13 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,942 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $50.52 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (43d) | $37.06 | $50.52 | $1.13 | $1.13 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.94 OTM = 32.2% (6.1x a typical daily move). The $1.13 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,948 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $50.52 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $409C 18 Dec 2026 (71d) | $377.97 | $414.20 | $5.05 | $5.05 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.03 OTM = 8.2% (6.0x a typical daily move). The $5.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,148 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $414.20 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (71d) | $173.60 | $278.82 | $2.33 | $2.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 96.40 OTM = 55.5% (13.0x a typical daily move). The $2.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,020 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $278.82 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $200C 15 Jan 2027 (99d) | $148.09 | $211.95 | $7.03 | $7.03 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 51.91 OTM = 35.0% (8.2x a typical daily move). The $7.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$11,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $211.95 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $23.82 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $23.82 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 34.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $23.82 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 63.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $11.02 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 46.9% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $32.98 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 41.3% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $46.31 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 34.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $9.99 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 40.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $9.99 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 75.6% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $334.64 | 5x $340C 12 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| AMD | Main:1299 | 2 | $649.20 | 2x $685C 12 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $275C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $300C 9 Oct 2026 (1d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (71d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $200C 23 Oct 2026 (15d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $89C 9 Oct 2026 (1d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 (15d) |
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3 | $562.50 | 3x $650C 30 Oct 2026 (22d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $409C 18 Dec 2026 (71d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $32C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) |
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10 | $114.95 | 10x $120C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $115C 23 Oct 2026 (15d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $123C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (43d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (43d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (43d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $200C 15 Jan 2027 (99d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1150C 12 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1150C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (15d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (43d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $90C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1900C 16 Oct 2026 (8d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $195C 30 Oct 2026 (22d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $800C 30 Oct 2026 (22d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 208 | 56% | 61% | +5pp |
| 60-70% | 392 | 64% | 62% | -2pp |
| 70-80% | 527 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 711 | 84% | 85% | +0pp |
| 90-100% | 1159 | 94% | 96% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 37% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2997 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.08x (W40) to 1.59x (W34) over 13 graded weeks; last week 0.08x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 203 real buyback(s) recorded · 115 roll(s), net +$0.64/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 115 real rolls: buyback $5.75/sh, replacement credit financed 111% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.64/sh (80 of 115 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.