FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $43,620/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $33,154/mo
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $363,700 locked in if all 16 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 1 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| APP ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 1 | $313.05 | $612.81 | — | 1 × $335 4 Sep (2d) $50 cyc · $750/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 13% | 🎯 1 × $330 4 Sep (2d) $100 cyc · $1,500/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:27%hist 27% | — | 1 × $325 4 Sep (2d) $180 cyc · $2,700/mo 79% survhist 84% · T:42%hist 38% | $2,111 | -$28,181 (220.2% IC) | 95.8% |
| SPCX ↗ ▼ DOWN -2.0% Neville:0865 · This Fri | 5 | $140.63 | $189.02 | 5 × $190 25 Sep (23d) $95 cyc · $124/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 2% | 5 × $147 4 Sep (2d) $210 cyc · $3,150/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% | 5 × $149 4 Sep (2d) $120 cyc · $1,800/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:9%hist 2% | 🎯 4 × $147 4 Sep (2d) $168 cyc · $2,520/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% | 5 × $145 4 Sep (2d) $370 cyc · $5,550/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 31% | $3,445 | -$16,639 (123.3% IC) | 34.4% |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $18.01 | $17.33 BE | +3.9% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| SPY Neville:0865 | 12 | $765.11 | $764.00 BE | +0.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $175.62 | $353.43 | 25 × $360 18 Sep (16d) $75 cyc · $141/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:0%hist 2% | 25 × $190 4 Sep (2d) $1,300 cyc · $19,500/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% | 18 × $190 4 Sep (2d) $936 cyc · $14,040/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% | 🎯 19 × $187.50 4 Sep (2d) $1,425 cyc · $21,375/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:24%hist 27% | 19 × $182.50 4 Sep (2d) $2,888 cyc · $43,320/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:47%hist 38% | $12,888 | -$313,839 (199.3% IC) | 101.2% |
| GLXY ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri | 125 | $23.50 | $34.75 | 125 × $35 18 Sep (16d) $375 cyc · $703/mo 98% survhist 96% · T:4%hist 2% | 125 × $26 4 Sep (2d) $875 cyc · $13,125/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:8%hist 2% | 115 × $26 4 Sep (2d) $805 cyc · $12,075/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:8%hist 2% | 🎯 81 × $25 4 Sep (2d) $1,215 cyc · $18,225/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 27% | 54 × $24 4 Sep (2d) $2,430 cyc · $36,450/mo 65% survhist 67% · T:72%hist 65% | $4,837 | -$77,743 (281.4% IC) | 47.9% |
| TOTAL (4) | 156 | following every 🎯 $2,908 cyc · $43,620/mo | $545 cyc · $968/mo 3 of 4 | $2,435 cyc · $36,525/mo | $1,961 cyc · $29,415/mo | $2,808 cyc · $42,120/mo 3 of 4 | $5,868 cyc · $88,020/mo | $23,281 | -$436,402 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$335 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$3.83/sh | +$383 cycle +$433 [+$221…+$401] · 92% credit | 66% surv 51% | -$29,125 NOT cap gain +$2,825 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$357 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$3.02/sh | +$302 cycle +$352 [-$15…+$290] · 72% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$26,813 NOT cap gain +$5,137 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$367 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.54/sh | +$54 cycle +$104 [-$328…+$32] · 32% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$25,971 NOT cap gain +$5,979 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$344 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.17/sh | +$17 cycle +$67 [-$271…+$2] · 26% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$28,460 NOT cap gain +$3,490 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$372 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$0.35/sh | -$35 cycle +$15 [-$442…-$64] · 13% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$25,515 NOT cap gain +$6,435 |
| budget: banked $50 debit $35 (71% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $649/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,205/mo) | -38% |
| vs normal income ($2,409/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $674/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,731 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 216.6% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 57.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 11.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-31,967 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $331.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $332-335.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $335.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $335.00 (1.8σ) | $50 | $-29,507 | +$2,443 | +$45 |
| +2.5% | $343.37 (2.5σ) | $-787 | $-29,432 | +$2,518 | -$792 |
| +5% | $351.75 (3.2σ) | $-1,625 | $-29,357 | +$2,593 | -$1,630 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (22.9σ) | $-25,250 | $-27,230 | +$4,720 | -$10,455 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$330 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$3.89/sh | +$389 cycle +$489 [+$225…+$407] · 91% credit | 66% surv 51% | -$29,614 NOT cap gain +$2,336 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$352 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$3.07/sh | +$307 cycle +$407 [-$8…+$298] · 74% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$27,303 NOT cap gain +$4,647 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$362 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.59/sh | +$59 cycle +$159 [-$320…+$36] · 35% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$26,461 NOT cap gain +$5,489 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$339 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.23/sh | +$23 cycle +$123 [-$260…+$9] · 28% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$28,949 NOT cap gain +$3,001 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$367 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$0.30/sh | -$30 cycle +$70 [-$433…-$58] · 16% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$26,005 NOT cap gain +$5,945 |
| budget: banked $100 debit $30 (30% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $646/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,205/mo) | +25% |
| vs normal income ($2,409/mo) | 62% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,424/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,181 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 220.2% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 58.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 11.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-31,965 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $326.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $327-331.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $331.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $330.00 (1.4σ) | $100 | $-30,002 | +$1,948 | +$95 |
| +2.5% | $338.25 (2.1σ) | $-725 | $-29,928 | +$2,022 | -$730 |
| +5% | $346.50 (2.8σ) | $-1,550 | $-29,854 | +$2,096 | -$1,555 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (22.9σ) | $-25,700 | $-27,680 | +$4,270 | -$10,905 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$325 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$3.94/sh | +$394 cycle +$574 [+$231…+$392] · 93% credit | 66% surv 51% | -$30,073 NOT cap gain +$1,877 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$347 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$3.11/sh | +$311 cycle +$491 [-$8…+$288] · 74% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$27,764 NOT cap gain +$4,186 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$357 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.64/sh | +$64 cycle +$244 [-$316…+$33] · 34% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$26,921 NOT cap gain +$5,029 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$334 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.29/sh | +$29 cycle +$209 [-$252…+$7] · 27% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$29,408 NOT cap gain +$2,542 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$367 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$1.03/sh | -$103 cycle +$77 [-$529…-$141] · 3% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$25,998 NOT cap gain +$5,952 |
| budget: banked $180 debit $103 (57% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$77 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $536/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,205/mo) | +124% |
| vs normal income ($2,409/mo) | 112% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,624/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,601 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 223.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 59.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 11.9 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-31,970 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $321.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $322-327.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $327.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $325.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $180 | $-30,467 | +$1,483 | +$175 |
| +2.5% | $333.12 (1.7σ) | $-632 | $-30,394 | +$1,556 | -$637 |
| +5% | $341.25 (2.3σ) | $-1,445 | $-30,321 | +$1,629 | -$1,450 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (22.9σ) | $-26,120 | $-28,100 | +$3,850 | -$11,325 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$360 | 25 Sep 2026 | 15d left | +$8.24/sh | +$20,604 cycle +$20,679 | 69% surv 55% | -$39,864 NOT cap gain +$148,823 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$379 | 25 Sep 2026 | 15d left | +$0.79/sh | +$1,963 cycle +$2,038 | 73% surv 63% | -$45,036 NOT cap gain +$143,652 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$379 | 25 Sep 2026 | 15d left | +$0.79/sh | +$1,963 cycle +$2,038 | 73% surv 63% | -$45,036 NOT cap gain +$143,652 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $141/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,812/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($41,625/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $141/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-188,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $356.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $356-360.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $360.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $360.00 (7.7σ) | $75 | $-60,468 | +$128,219 | +$50 |
| +2.5% | $369.00 (8.0σ) | $-22,425 | $-76,713 | +$111,974 | -$22,450 |
| +5% | $378.00 (8.4σ) | $-44,925 | $-92,958 | +$95,729 | -$44,950 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (16.1σ) | $-507,425 | $-426,883 | -$238,196 | -$324,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$190 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$3.84/sh | +$9,610 cycle +$10,910 [+$8,032…+$10,266] · 99% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$167,784 NOT cap gain +$20,904 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$214 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$1.62/sh | +$4,048 cycle +$5,348 [+$271…+$4,300] · 76% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$156,402 NOT cap gain +$32,286 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$199 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.43/sh | +$1,074 cycle +$2,374 [-$2,764…+$1,000] · 48% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$169,800 NOT cap gain +$18,887 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$224 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$182 cycle +$1,482 [-$4,623…+$135] · 29% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$153,318 NOT cap gain +$35,370 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$229 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$0.48/sh | -$1,208 cycle +$92 [-$6,389…-$1,338] · 11% credit | 89% surv 87% | -$151,232 NOT cap gain +$37,456 |
| budget: banked $1,300 debit $1,208 (93% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$92 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $9,413/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $19,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,812/mo) | -6% |
| vs normal income ($41,625/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $19,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$407,271 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 258.6% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 175.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.8 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-188,725 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $188.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $188-190.53 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $190.53 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $190.00 (1.7σ) | $1,300 | $-177,393 | +$11,294 | +$1,275 |
| +2.5% | $194.75 (2.3σ) | $-10,575 | $-185,967 | +$2,720 | -$10,600 |
| +5% | $199.50 (2.8σ) | $-22,450 | $-194,541 | -$5,853 | -$22,475 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (45.6σ) | $-931,200 | $-850,658 | -$661,971 | -$748,725 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$190 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$3.84/sh | +$6,919 cycle +$7,855 [+$5,988…+$7,508] · 99% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$170,831 NOT cap gain +$17,856 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$219 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.76/sh | +$1,377 cycle +$2,313 [-$1,378…+$1,730] · 60% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$155,954 NOT cap gain +$32,733 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$199 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.43/sh | +$773 cycle +$1,709 [-$1,714…+$953] · 54% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$170,458 NOT cap gain +$18,230 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$224 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$131 cycle +$1,067 [-$2,949…+$413] · 34% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$153,726 NOT cap gain +$34,962 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$229 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$0.48/sh | -$869 cycle +$67 [-$4,224…-$644] · 9% credit | 89% surv 87% | -$151,251 NOT cap gain +$37,437 |
| budget: banked $936 debit $869 (93% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$67 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $6,777/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,040/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,812/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($41,625/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14,053/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$293,235 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 186.2% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 126.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.0 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-135,882 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $188.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $188-190.53 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $190.53 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $190.00 (1.7σ) | $936 | $-177,750 | +$10,937 | +$918 |
| +2.5% | $194.75 (2.3σ) | $-7,614 | $-182,999 | +$5,688 | -$7,632 |
| +5% | $199.50 (2.8σ) | $-16,164 | $-188,248 | +$440 | -$16,182 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (45.6σ) | $-670,464 | $-641,015 | -$452,328 | -$539,082 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$188 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$3.75/sh | +$7,129 cycle +$8,554 [+$5,896…+$7,442] · 100% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$171,870 NOT cap gain +$16,817 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$212 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$1.45/sh | +$2,757 cycle +$4,182 [-$243…+$2,681] · 73% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$159,299 NOT cap gain +$29,389 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$217 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.62/sh | +$1,173 cycle +$2,598 [-$2,260…+$1,035] · 47% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$157,408 NOT cap gain +$31,280 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$197 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.36/sh | +$680 cycle +$2,105 [-$2,372…+$533] · 40% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$171,800 NOT cap gain +$16,887 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$227 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$0.59/sh | -$1,124 cycle +$301 [-$5,244…-$1,346] · 6% credit | 89% surv 88% | -$152,755 NOT cap gain +$35,933 |
| budget: banked $1,425 debit $1,124 (79% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$301 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $6,683/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $21,375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,812/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($41,625/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $21,386/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$313,839 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 199.3% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 135.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.5 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-143,498 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $185.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $186-188.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $188.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $187.50 (1.4σ) | $1,425 | $-179,000 | +$9,688 | +$1,406 |
| +2.5% | $192.19 (1.9σ) | $-7,481 | $-184,648 | +$4,039 | -$7,500 |
| +5% | $196.88 (2.5σ) | $-16,388 | $-190,297 | -$1,609 | -$16,406 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (45.6σ) | $-712,025 | $-675,277 | -$486,590 | -$573,344 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$182 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$3.57/sh | +$6,788 cycle +$9,676 [+$4,905…+$6,720] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$174,224 NOT cap gain +$14,463 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$202 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$2.12/sh | +$4,030 cycle +$6,918 [+$378…+$3,750] · 78% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$163,513 NOT cap gain +$25,175 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$212 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.34/sh | +$641 cycle +$3,529 [-$4,090…+$148] · 29% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$159,951 NOT cap gain +$28,736 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$192 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.22/sh | +$418 cycle +$3,306 [-$3,549…-$7] · 25% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$174,075 NOT cap gain +$14,613 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$227 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$1.30/sh | -$2,472 cycle +$416 [-$8,447…-$3,186] | 92% surv 91% | -$152,639 NOT cap gain +$36,048 |
| budget: banked $2,888 debit $2,472 (86% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$416 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $4,472/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $43,320/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,812/mo) | +108% |
| vs normal income ($41,625/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $43,331/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$321,876 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 204.4% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 138.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.7 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-143,507 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $180.68 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $181-184.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $184.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $182.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,888 | $-181,012 | +$7,676 | +$2,869 |
| +2.5% | $187.06 (1.3σ) | $-5,781 | $-186,510 | +$2,178 | -$5,800 |
| +5% | $191.62 (1.9σ) | $-14,450 | $-192,008 | -$3,320 | -$14,468 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (45.6σ) | $-720,062 | $-683,314 | -$494,627 | -$581,381 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 25 Sep 2026 | 15d left | +$0.34/sh | +$4,275 cycle +$4,650 | 67% surv 54% | +$4,775 SAFE cap gain +$123,962 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$36 | 25 Sep 2026 | 15d left | +$0.05/sh | +$685 cycle +$1,060 | 72% surv 62% | +$16,747 SAFE cap gain +$135,935 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 25 Sep 2026 | 15d left | +$0.05/sh | +$685 cycle +$1,060 | 72% surv 62% | +$16,747 SAFE cap gain +$135,935 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $703/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,164/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($36,328/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $703/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-119,312 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.04 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.04 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (2.9σ) | $375 | $500 | +$119,688 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (3.1σ) | $-10,562 | $-1,359 | +$117,828 | +$0 |
| +5% | $36.75 (3.4σ) | $-21,500 | $-3,219 | +$115,969 | +$0 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (4.1σ) | $-58,500 | $-9,509 | +$109,679 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.51/sh | +$6,385 cycle +$7,260 [+$2,505…+$6,439] · 88% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$85,990 NOT cap gain +$33,197 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$28 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.52/sh | +$6,459 cycle +$7,334 [+$1,509…+$6,438] · 85% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$59,978 NOT cap gain +$59,209 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,128 cycle +$2,003 [-$3,883…+$860] · 39% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$80,872 NOT cap gain +$38,315 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$145 cycle +$1,020 [-$6,129…-$202] · 22% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$45,543 NOT cap gain +$73,645 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,125/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,164/mo) | -28% |
| vs normal income ($36,328/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,125/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$108,474 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 392.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 39.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-119,312 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (1.8σ) | $875 | $-92,375 | +$26,812 | +$500 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (2.3σ) | $-7,250 | $-93,756 | +$25,431 | -$7,625 |
| +5% | $27.30 (2.7σ) | $-15,375 | $-95,137 | +$24,050 | -$15,750 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (11.6σ) | $-170,500 | $-121,509 | -$2,321 | -$112,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (115 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.51/sh | +$5,874 cycle +$6,679 [+$1,921…+$6,389] · 86% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$86,541 NOT cap gain +$32,647 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$30 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.25/sh | +$2,861 cycle +$3,666 [-$2,745…+$3,268] · 62% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$53,242 NOT cap gain +$65,946 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,038 cycle +$1,843 [-$4,232…+$1,231] · 42% credit | 72% surv 64% | -$81,002 NOT cap gain +$38,185 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$133 cycle +$938 [-$6,193…+$398] · 31% credit | 82% surv 80% | -$45,594 NOT cap gain +$73,593 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,075/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,164/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($36,328/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,131/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$99,796 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 361.3% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 35.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (115 ct) | $-109,767 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (1.8σ) | $805 | $-92,415 | +$26,772 | +$460 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (2.3σ) | $-6,670 | $-93,146 | +$26,041 | -$7,015 |
| +5% | $27.30 (2.7σ) | $-14,145 | $-93,877 | +$25,310 | -$14,490 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (11.6σ) | $-156,860 | $-112,549 | +$6,639 | -$103,040 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (81 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.48/sh | +$3,882 cycle +$5,097 [+$970…+$3,762] · 81% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$98,396 NOT cap gain +$20,791 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$28 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.44/sh | +$3,555 cycle +$4,770 [-$135…+$3,348] · 74% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$72,785 NOT cap gain +$46,402 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.18/sh | +$1,484 cycle +$2,699 [-$2,703…+$1,154] · 48% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$64,481 NOT cap gain +$54,706 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.06/sh | +$523 cycle +$1,738 [-$3,360…+$199] · 31% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$91,380 NOT cap gain +$27,807 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$30 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$0.04/sh | -$300 cycle +$915 [-$4,995…-$707] · 13% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$55,890 NOT cap gain +$63,297 |
| budget: banked $1,215 debit $300 (25% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$915 cash · rolled 81 ct earn ≈ $7,194/mo while parked; 44 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $18,225/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,164/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($36,328/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $18,472/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$77,743 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 281.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 28.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (81 ct) | $-77,517 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.18 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.18 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (1.1σ) | $1,215 | $-102,278 | +$16,910 | +$972 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (1.5σ) | $-3,847 | $-100,856 | +$18,331 | -$4,090 |
| +5% | $26.25 (2.0σ) | $-8,910 | $-99,434 | +$19,753 | -$9,153 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (11.6σ) | $-117,936 | $-89,537 | +$29,651 | -$80,028 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (54 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$26 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.68/sh | +$3,658 cycle +$6,088 [+$633…+$3,255] · 80% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$92,137 NOT cap gain +$27,051 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.45/sh | +$2,423 cycle +$4,853 [-$278…+$2,069] · 72% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$108,934 NOT cap gain +$10,253 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$659 cycle +$3,089 [-$3,244…+$57] · 27% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$74,385 NOT cap gain +$44,802 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$216 cycle +$2,646 [-$3,245…-$322] · 15% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$100,766 NOT cap gain +$18,421 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$29 | 18 Sep 2026 | 15d left | -$0.39/sh | -$2,130 cycle +$300 [-$6,965…-$2,932] | 89% surv 88% | -$61,612 NOT cap gain +$57,576 |
| budget: banked $2,430 debit $2,130 (88% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$300 cash · rolled 54 ct earn ≈ $2,696/mo while parked; 71 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $36,450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($18,164/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($36,328/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $36,849/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$55,609 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 201.3% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 20.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (54 ct) | $-51,759 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.76 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-24.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,430 | $-111,357 | +$7,830 | +$2,268 |
| +2.5% | $24.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-810 | $-108,372 | +$10,815 | -$972 |
| +5% | $25.20 (1.2σ) | $-4,050 | $-105,387 | +$13,801 | -$4,212 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (11.6σ) | $-82,404 | $-66,641 | +$52,547 | -$57,132 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $124/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,508/mo) | -95% |
| vs normal income ($5,016/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $124/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-24,668 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 12d left | 3-11d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $188.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $188-190.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $190.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $190.00 (3.0σ) | $95 | $-1,808 | +$22,855 | +$2,520 |
| +2.5% | $194.75 (3.3σ) | $-2,280 | $-1,993 | +$22,669 | +$2,520 |
| +5% | $199.50 (3.6σ) | $-4,655 | $-2,178 | +$22,484 | +$2,520 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$147 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$2.07/sh | +$1,036 cycle +$1,246 [+$891…+$1,089] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$20,480 NOT cap gain +$4,182 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$159 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.74/sh | +$370 cycle +$580 [-$159…+$352] · 66% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$15,674 NOT cap gain +$8,989 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$161 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.25/sh | +$124 cycle +$334 [-$458…+$98] · 38% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$14,767 NOT cap gain +$9,895 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$152 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$18 cycle +$228 [-$426…-$7] · 25% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$19,022 NOT cap gain +$5,641 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$164 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$0.14/sh | -$71 cycle +$139 [-$698…-$108] · 12% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$13,810 NOT cap gain +$10,853 |
| budget: banked $210 debit $71 (34% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$139 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,059/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,508/mo) | +26% |
| vs normal income ($5,016/mo) | 63% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,150/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,799 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 154.1% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 47.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-24,665 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $145.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $146-147.43 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $147.43 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $147.00 (1.3σ) | $210 | $-21,516 | +$3,147 | +$135 |
| +2.5% | $150.67 (2.1σ) | $-1,627 | $-21,659 | +$3,003 | -$1,702 |
| +5% | $154.35 (2.9σ) | $-3,465 | $-21,803 | +$2,860 | -$3,540 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (9.4σ) | $-19,290 | $-23,037 | +$1,626 | -$18,865 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$149 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$2.05/sh | +$1,024 cycle +$1,144 [+$912…+$1,109] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$19,660 NOT cap gain +$5,003 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$161 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.72/sh | +$359 cycle +$479 [-$114…+$373] · 65% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$14,853 NOT cap gain +$9,810 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$163 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.23/sh | +$113 cycle +$233 [-$412…+$114] · 41% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$13,946 NOT cap gain +$10,716 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$154 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$6 cycle +$126 [-$396…+$2] · 26% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$18,202 NOT cap gain +$6,461 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$166 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$0.16/sh | -$82 cycle +$38 [-$652…-$92] · 17% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$12,989 NOT cap gain +$11,673 |
| budget: banked $120 debit $82 (68% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$38 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,059/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,508/mo) | -28% |
| vs normal income ($5,016/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,800/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,889 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 147.3% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 45.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-24,665 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $147.51 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $148-149.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $149.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $149.00 (1.7σ) | $120 | $-20,684 | +$3,979 | +$45 |
| +2.5% | $152.72 (2.5σ) | $-1,742 | $-20,829 | +$3,833 | -$1,817 |
| +5% | $156.45 (3.3σ) | $-3,605 | $-20,974 | +$3,688 | -$3,680 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (9.4σ) | $-18,380 | $-22,127 | +$2,536 | -$17,955 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$147 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$2.07/sh | +$828 cycle +$996 [+$677…+$866] · 99% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$20,714 NOT cap gain +$3,948 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$159 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.74/sh | +$296 cycle +$464 [-$212…+$276] · 62% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$15,775 NOT cap gain +$8,888 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$161 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.25/sh | +$99 cycle +$267 [-$459…+$74] · 37% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$14,819 NOT cap gain +$9,844 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$152 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$15 cycle +$183 [-$420…-$5] · 23% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$19,053 NOT cap gain +$5,610 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$164 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$0.14/sh | -$57 cycle +$111 [-$658…-$85] · 13% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$13,823 NOT cap gain +$10,840 |
| budget: banked $168 debit $57 (34% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $847/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,520/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,508/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($5,016/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,548/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,639 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 123.3% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 38.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-19,732 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $145.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $146-147.43 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $147.43 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $147.00 (1.3σ) | $168 | $-21,543 | +$3,120 | +$108 |
| +2.5% | $150.67 (2.1σ) | $-1,302 | $-21,319 | +$3,344 | -$1,362 |
| +5% | $154.35 (2.9σ) | $-2,772 | $-21,095 | +$3,568 | -$2,832 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (9.4σ) | $-15,432 | $-19,264 | +$5,399 | -$15,092 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$145 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$2.09/sh | +$1,046 cycle +$1,416 [+$801…+$1,040] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$21,232 NOT cap gain +$3,431 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$154 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$1.36/sh | +$681 cycle +$1,051 [+$11…+$614] · 75% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$17,277 NOT cap gain +$7,385 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$159 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | +$0.27/sh | +$135 cycle +$505 [-$691…+$41] · 31% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$15,519 NOT cap gain +$9,144 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$150 | 11 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.06/sh | +$30 cycle +$400 [-$601…-$40] · 18% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$19,773 NOT cap gain +$4,890 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$167 | 25 Sep 2026 | 22d left | -$0.68/sh | -$340 cycle +$30 [-$1,307…-$455] | 92% surv 91% | -$12,536 NOT cap gain +$12,126 |
| budget: banked $370 debit $340 (92% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$30 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $676/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,550/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,508/mo) | +121% |
| vs normal income ($5,016/mo) | 111% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,550/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,639 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 160.3% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 49.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-24,670 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $143.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $144-145.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $145.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $145.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $370 | $-22,278 | +$2,385 | +$295 |
| +2.5% | $148.62 (1.7σ) | $-1,442 | $-22,419 | +$2,243 | -$1,518 |
| +5% | $152.25 (2.4σ) | $-3,255 | $-22,561 | +$2,102 | -$3,330 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (9.4σ) | $-20,130 | $-23,877 | +$786 | -$19,705 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Neville:0865 | 2x $475C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) | $458.09 | $477.65 | $1.94 | $1.94 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.91 OTM = 3.7% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $1.94 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$521 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $24.47/sh BELOW the $499.47 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $4,893 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $477.65 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) | $124.10 | $125.40 | $3.77 | $3.77 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.90 OTM = 0.7% (0.3x a typical daily move). The $3.77 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$177 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $125.40 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $125C at ~$3.89 ($1,944), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (44d) | $136.90 | $155.41 | $8.72 | $8.72 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.10 OTM = 2.3% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $8.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$15,359 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $155.41 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) | $332.90 | $345.88 | $0.30 | $0.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.10 OTM = 3.6% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,238 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $345.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) | $332.90 | $345.88 | $0.30 | $0.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.10 OTM = 3.6% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$413 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $345.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) | $37.58 | $40.24 | $0.26 | $0.26 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.42 OTM = 6.4% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $0.26 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$386 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $39.80 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) | $37.58 | $40.24 | $0.26 | $0.26 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.42 OTM = 6.4% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $0.26 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$386 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $39.80 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $96C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) | $89.84 | $96.52 | $0.25 | $0.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.16 OTM = 6.9% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $0.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$234 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $96.52 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $485C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) | $449.00 | $492.42 | $1.90 | $1.90 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 36.00 OTM = 8.0% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $1.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,211 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $492.42 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $267.5C 11 Sep 2026 (9d) | $254.63 | $268.32 | $0.72 | $0.72 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.87 OTM = 5.1% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $0.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$385 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $268.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 (9d) | $62.17 | $69.65 | $0.53 | $0.53 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.83 OTM = 11.0% (2.8x a typical daily move). The $0.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$360 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $69.65 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $42C 11 Sep 2026 (9d) | $37.58 | $42.46 | $0.45 | $0.45 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.42 OTM = 11.8% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $0.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$820 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.46 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $42C 11 Sep 2026 (9d) | $37.58 | $42.46 | $0.45 | $0.45 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.42 OTM = 11.8% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $0.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$820 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.46 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $93C 11 Sep 2026 (9d) | $80.28 | $94.27 | $0.40 | $0.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.72 OTM = 15.8% (3.7x a typical daily move). The $0.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$609 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $94.27 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $180C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) | $170.27 | $182.48 | $2.31 | $2.31 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.73 OTM = 5.7% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $2.31 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,216 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $182.48 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1650C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) | $1,538.51 | $1,695.75 | $46.15 | $46.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 111.49 OTM = 7.2% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $46.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,570 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,695.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) | $940.87 | $1,043.97 | $13.30 | $13.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 89.13 OTM = 9.5% (2.8x a typical daily move). The $13.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,961 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,043.97 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) | $940.87 | $1,043.97 | $13.30 | $13.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 89.13 OTM = 9.5% (2.8x a typical daily move). The $13.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,785 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,043.97 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) | $89.73 | $101.31 | $0.53 | $0.53 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.27 OTM = 11.4% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $0.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,511 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.31 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1x $1050C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) | $940.87 | $1,067.67 | $10.03 | $10.03 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 109.13 OTM = 11.6% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $10.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,762 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,067.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $36C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) | $28.81 | $36.63 | $0.20 | $0.20 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.19 OTM = 25.0% (5.2x a typical daily move). The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$875 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $36.63 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $425C 2 Oct 2026 (30d) | $400.73 | $429.85 | $3.53 | $3.53 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 24.27 OTM = 6.1% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $3.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $429.85 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (30d) | $175.91 | $229.43 | $2.71 | $2.71 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 44.09 OTM = 25.1% (5.8x a typical daily move). The $2.71 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,506 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $229.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $615C 16 Oct 2026 (44d) | $592.21 | $626.43 | $20.98 | $20.98 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 22.79 OTM = 3.8% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $20.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,413 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $626.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (44d) | $332.90 | $374.44 | $3.70 | $3.70 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.10 OTM = 9.6% (5.3x a typical daily move). The $3.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,695 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $374.44 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $150C 16 Oct 2026 (44d) | $121.84 | $157.80 | $4.15 | $4.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.16 OTM = 23.1% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $4.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,101 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $157.80 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $150C 16 Oct 2026 (44d) | $121.84 | $157.75 | $4.15 | $4.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.16 OTM = 23.1% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $4.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,699 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $157.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $125C 20 Nov 2026 (79d) | $103.03 | $126.98 | $0.75 | $0.75 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 21.97 OTM = 21.3% (10.9x a typical daily move). The $0.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,313 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $126.98 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $23.06 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.7% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $23.06 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.7% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $23.06 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 65.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $10.95 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.2% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $34.79 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 38.0% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $43.69 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 38.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $10.18 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 39.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $10.18 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 75.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Neville:0865 | 2 | $489.91 | 2x $475C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $268C 11 Sep 2026 (9d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (30d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $93C 11 Sep 2026 (9d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $485C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $425C 2 Oct 2026 (30d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $345C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (44d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $345C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $36C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $125C 20 Nov 2026 (79d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $96C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $42C 11 Sep 2026 (9d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $42C 11 Sep 2026 (9d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $615C 16 Oct 2026 (44d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $150C 16 Oct 2026 (44d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $150C 16 Oct 2026 (44d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1 | $792.36 | 1x $1050C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) |
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5 | $114.54 | 5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) |
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10 | $108.93 | 10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (44d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $180C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 (9d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1650C 18 Sep 2026 (16d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 177 | 56% | 62% | +6pp |
| 60-70% | 347 | 64% | 62% | -3pp |
| 70-80% | 445 | 76% | 83% | +7pp |
| 80-90% | 574 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 945 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2488 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 156 real buyback(s) recorded · 78 roll(s), net +$0.69/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 78 real rolls: buyback $6.04/sh, replacement credit financed 112% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.69/sh (54 of 78 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.