FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $46,354/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $-4,710/mo ⚠ 2 negative E[net]
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $339,117 locked in if all 18 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 2 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| APP ↗ ▲ UP +2.7% RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 1 | $328.00 | $611.02 | — | 1 × $365 11 Sep (8d) $105 cyc · $394/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 13% | 🎯 1 × $352.50 11 Sep (8d) $245 cyc · $919/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 31% | 1 × $345 11 Sep (8d) $420 cyc · $1,575/mo 75% survhist 84% · T:50%hist 43% | 1 × $332.50 11 Sep (8d) $770 cyc · $2,888/mo 58% survhist 69% · T:86%hist 79% | $2,111 | -$25,607 (200.1% IC) | 86.3% |
| SPCX ↗ ▲ UP +3.0% Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 5 | $144.03 | $189.70 | 5 × $190 25 Sep (22d) $115 cyc · $157/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:2%hist 2% | 5 × $160 11 Sep (8d) $220 cyc · $825/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 13% | 4 × $152.50 11 Sep (8d) $544 cyc · $2,040/mo 80% survhist 84% · T:41%hist 38% | 🎯 4 × $150 11 Sep (8d) $776 cyc · $2,910/mo 73% survhist 84% · T:55%hist 43% | 5 × $146 11 Sep (8d) $1,650 cyc · $6,188/mo 59% survhist 69% · T:84%hist 79% | $3,445 | -$15,102 (111.9% IC) | 31.7% |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $18.29 | $17.33 BE | +5.5% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| SPY Neville:0865 | 12 | $768.63 | $764.00 BE | +0.6% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 ↗ ▲ UP +4.1% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 25 | $183.03 | $353.84 | 25 × $400 18 Sep (15d) $25 cyc · $50/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:0%hist 2% | 25 × $210 11 Sep (8d) $2,650 cyc · $9,938/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% | 🎯 18 × $200 11 Sep (8d) $4,302 cyc · $16,132/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 31% | 19 × $195 11 Sep (8d) $6,365 cyc · $23,869/mo 76% survhist 84% · T:50%hist 38% | 22 × $187.50 11 Sep (8d) $12,540 cyc · $47,025/mo 62% survhist 66% · T:79%hist 65% | $12,888 | -$272,615 (173.1% IC) | 93.3% |
| GLXY ↗ ▲ UP +4.5% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 125 | $25.12 | $34.77 | 125 × $35 18 Sep (15d) $250 cyc · $500/mo 98% survhist 96% · T:3%hist 2% | 125 × $30 11 Sep (8d) $625 cyc · $2,344/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 13% | 93 × $27 11 Sep (8d) $3,162 cyc · $11,858/mo 76% survhist 84% · T:51%hist 43% | 🎯 120 × $26 11 Sep (8d) $4,800 cyc · $18,000/mo 64% survhist 66% · T:74%hist 65% | 120 × $25 11 Sep (8d) $9,600 cyc · $36,000/mo 50% survhist 69% · T:100%hist 89% | $4,837 | -$100,450 (363.6% IC) | 38.4% |
| TOTAL (4) | 156 | following every 🎯 $10,123 cyc · $37,961/mo | $390 cyc · $707/mo 3 of 4 | $3,600 cyc · $13,500/mo | $8,253 cyc · $30,949/mo | $12,361 cyc · $46,354/mo | $24,560 cyc · $92,100/mo | $23,281 | -$413,775 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$365 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$1.82/sh | +$182 cycle +$287 [+$79…+$376] · 86% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$25,857 NOT cap gain +$4,346 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$367 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$2.44/sh | +$244 cycle +$349 [+$99…+$460] · 85% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$25,575 NOT cap gain +$4,627 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$367 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$1.00/sh | +$100 cycle +$205 [-$13…+$282] · 73% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$25,720 NOT cap gain +$4,483 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$372 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.27/sh | +$27 cycle +$132 [-$148…+$240] · 55% credit | 69% surv 59% | -$25,244 NOT cap gain +$4,959 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $394/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,370/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($2,740/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $313/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,497 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 191.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 50.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.9 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-30,237 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $361.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $361-366.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $366.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $365.00 (1.4σ) | $105 | $-26,039 | +$4,164 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $374.12 (1.8σ) | $-807 | $-25,950 | +$4,252 | -$812 |
| +5% | $383.25 (2.2σ) | $-1,720 | $-25,862 | +$4,341 | -$1,725 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (10.2σ) | $-22,195 | $-23,876 | +$6,327 | -$7,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$352 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$2.13/sh | +$213 cycle +$458 [+$34…+$319] · 82% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$27,057 NOT cap gain +$3,146 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$354 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$2.74/sh | +$274 cycle +$519 [+$30…+$380] · 79% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$26,776 NOT cap gain +$3,427 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$354 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$1.31/sh | +$131 cycle +$376 [-$55…+$223] · 64% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$26,920 NOT cap gain +$3,283 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$360 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.58/sh | +$58 cycle +$303 [-$226…+$145] · 43% credit | 69% surv 59% | -$26,444 NOT cap gain +$3,758 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$364 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | -$2.14/sh | -$214 cycle +$31 [-$465…-$166] · 11% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$26,168 NOT cap gain +$4,035 |
| budget: banked $245 debit $214 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,149/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $919/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,370/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($2,740/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $838/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,607 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 200.1% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 53.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-30,290 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $348.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $349-355.82 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $355.82 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $352.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $245 | $-27,270 | +$2,933 | +$240 |
| +2.5% | $361.31 (1.3σ) | $-636 | $-27,184 | +$3,018 | -$641 |
| +5% | $370.12 (1.6σ) | $-1,518 | $-27,099 | +$3,104 | -$1,522 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (10.2σ) | $-23,305 | $-24,986 | +$5,217 | -$8,510 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$345 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$2.31/sh | +$231 cycle +$651 [+$27…+$246] · 81% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$27,687 NOT cap gain +$2,516 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$347 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$2.91/sh | +$291 cycle +$711 [+$4…+$288] · 76% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$27,407 NOT cap gain +$2,796 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$352 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.75/sh | +$75 cycle +$495 [-$245…+$57] · 31% credit | 69% surv 59% | -$27,075 NOT cap gain +$3,128 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$350 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$5 cycle +$425 [-$244…-$7] · 24% credit | 69% surv 58% | -$27,419 NOT cap gain +$2,783 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$362 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | -$4.11/sh | -$411 cycle +$9 [-$755…-$464] · 0% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$26,464 NOT cap gain +$3,739 |
| budget: banked $420 debit $411 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,554/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,575/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,370/mo) | +15% |
| vs normal income ($2,740/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,494/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$26,182 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 204.6% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 54.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.6 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-30,317 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $341.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $342-350.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $350.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $345.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $420 | $-27,918 | +$2,285 | +$415 |
| +2.5% | $353.62 (1.0σ) | $-442 | $-27,834 | +$2,369 | -$447 |
| +5% | $362.25 (1.3σ) | $-1,305 | $-27,750 | +$2,452 | -$1,310 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (10.2σ) | $-23,880 | $-25,560 | +$4,642 | -$9,085 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$332 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$2.58/sh | +$258 cycle +$1,028 [-$27…+$137] · 69% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$28,681 NOT cap gain +$1,521 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$334 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$3.17/sh | +$317 cycle +$1,087 [-$77…+$151] · 62% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$28,402 NOT cap gain +$1,800 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$340 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$1.02/sh | +$102 cycle +$872 [-$338…-$81] · 16% credit | 69% surv 59% | -$28,069 NOT cap gain +$2,133 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$337 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.32/sh | +$32 cycle +$802 [-$307…-$110] · 12% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$28,413 NOT cap gain +$1,789 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$380 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$7.51/sh | -$751 cycle +$19 [-$1,455…-$1,023] | 88% surv 87% | -$24,534 NOT cap gain +$5,668 |
| budget: banked $770 debit $751 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$19 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $323/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,888/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,370/mo) | +111% |
| vs normal income ($2,740/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,807/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,082 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 211.6% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 56.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.9 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-30,397 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $329.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $329-342.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $342.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $332.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $770 | $-28,939 | +$1,264 | +$765 |
| +2.5% | $340.81 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-61 | $-28,858 | +$1,344 | -$66 |
| +5% | $349.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-892 | $-28,778 | +$1,425 | -$898 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (10.2σ) | $-24,780 | $-26,460 | +$3,742 | -$9,985 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$400 | 25 Sep 2026 | 14d left | +$8.61/sh | +$21,537 cycle +$21,562 | 70% surv 55% | -$2,965 NOT cap gain +$181,035 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$417 | 25 Sep 2026 | 14d left | +$0.06/sh | +$155 cycle +$180 | 73% surv 61% | -$11,874 NOT cap gain +$172,126 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$417 | 25 Sep 2026 | 14d left | +$0.06/sh | +$155 cycle +$180 | 73% surv 61% | -$11,874 NOT cap gain +$172,126 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $50/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,250/mo) | -100% |
| vs normal income ($46,500/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $50/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-184,075 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $396.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $396-400.04 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $400.04 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $400.00 (9.1σ) | $25 | $-24,502 | +$159,498 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $410.00 (9.5σ) | $-24,975 | $-42,152 | +$141,848 | -$25,000 |
| +5% | $420.00 (9.9σ) | $-49,975 | $-59,802 | +$124,198 | -$50,000 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (16.0σ) | $-407,475 | $-312,197 | -$128,197 | -$225,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$210 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$3.77/sh | +$9,432 cycle +$12,082 [+$8,582…+$13,753] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$152,095 NOT cap gain +$31,905 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$222 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$1.31/sh | +$3,269 cycle +$5,919 [+$733…+$7,308] · 81% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$149,460 NOT cap gain +$34,540 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$217 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.67/sh | +$1,671 cycle +$4,321 [-$389…+$4,628] · 73% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$154,733 NOT cap gain +$29,267 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$227 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$0.21/sh | -$513 cycle +$2,137 [-$3,706…+$3,172] · 50% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$149,567 NOT cap gain +$34,433 |
| budget: banked $2,650 debit $513 (19% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,137 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $30,422/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,938/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,250/mo) | -57% |
| vs normal income ($46,500/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,938/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$356,957 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 226.6% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 153.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.7 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-184,200 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $207.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $208-211.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $211.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $210.00 (1.6σ) | $2,650 | $-161,527 | +$22,473 | +$2,625 |
| +2.5% | $215.25 (1.9σ) | $-10,475 | $-170,793 | +$13,207 | -$10,500 |
| +5% | $220.50 (2.2σ) | $-23,600 | $-180,060 | +$3,940 | -$23,625 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (21.8σ) | $-879,850 | $-784,572 | -$600,572 | -$697,375 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$200 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$3.46/sh | +$6,232 cycle +$10,534 [+$5,034…+$7,689] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$160,986 NOT cap gain +$23,014 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$207 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$2.55/sh | +$4,585 cycle +$8,887 [+$2,433…+$5,566] · 95% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$157,510 NOT cap gain +$26,490 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$212 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,548 cycle +$5,850 [-$1,050…+$2,411] · 59% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$156,872 NOT cap gain +$27,128 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$207 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.38/sh | +$691 cycle +$4,993 [-$1,293…+$1,321] · 46% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$161,404 NOT cap gain +$22,596 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$222 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$1.80/sh | -$3,245 cycle +$1,057 [-$6,831…-$2,605] · 11% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$154,315 NOT cap gain +$29,685 |
| budget: banked $4,302 debit $3,245 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,057 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $15,210/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,132/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,250/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($46,500/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,146/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$272,615 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 173.1% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 117.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.9 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-132,597 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $198.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $198-202.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $202.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $200.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,302 | $-167,218 | +$16,782 | +$4,284 |
| +2.5% | $205.00 (1.3σ) | $-4,698 | $-172,543 | +$11,457 | -$4,716 |
| +5% | $210.00 (1.6σ) | $-13,698 | $-177,868 | +$6,132 | -$13,716 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (21.8σ) | $-649,098 | $-604,913 | -$420,913 | -$517,716 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$195 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$3.31/sh | +$6,292 cycle +$12,657 [+$4,707…+$7,002] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$162,539 NOT cap gain +$21,461 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$202 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$2.32/sh | +$4,399 cycle +$10,764 [+$1,646…+$4,872] · 92% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$159,309 NOT cap gain +$24,691 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$207 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.65/sh | +$1,231 cycle +$7,596 [-$1,990…+$1,392] · 43% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$158,802 NOT cap gain +$25,198 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$202 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.25/sh | +$471 cycle +$6,836 [-$1,978…+$540] · 33% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$163,237 NOT cap gain +$20,763 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$222 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$2.96/sh | -$5,627 cycle +$738 [-$10,434…-$5,966] · 1% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$154,635 NOT cap gain +$29,365 |
| budget: banked $6,365 debit $5,627 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$738 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $11,415/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $23,869/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,250/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($46,500/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $23,881/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$295,437 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 187.6% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 127.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.4 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-140,172 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $193.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $193-198.53 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $198.53 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $195.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $6,365 | $-168,831 | +$15,169 | +$6,346 |
| +2.5% | $199.87 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,897 | $-174,510 | +$9,490 | -$2,916 |
| +5% | $204.75 (1.2σ) | $-12,160 | $-180,190 | +$3,810 | -$12,179 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (21.8σ) | $-692,835 | $-641,351 | -$457,351 | -$554,154 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (22 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$188 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$3.09/sh | +$6,803 cycle +$19,343 [+$4,547…+$5,999] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$161,368 NOT cap gain +$22,632 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$194 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$1.98/sh | +$4,353 cycle +$16,893 [+$328…+$2,671] · 79% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$158,695 NOT cap gain +$25,305 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$199 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$757 cycle +$13,297 [-$4,011…-$1,172] · 15% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$158,617 NOT cap gain +$25,383 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$194 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.05/sh | +$116 cycle +$12,656 [-$3,442…-$1,336] · 12% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$162,933 NOT cap gain +$21,067 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$229 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$4.53/sh | -$9,972 cycle +$2,568 [-$18,344…-$13,225] | 92% surv 91% | -$147,296 NOT cap gain +$36,704 |
| budget: banked $12,540 debit $9,972 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,568 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $5,819/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $47,025/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,250/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($46,500/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $47,031/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$353,415 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 224.4% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 152.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.6 mo |
| Surgical close (22 ct) | $-162,525 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $185.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $186-193.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $193.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $187.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $12,540 | $-168,172 | +$15,828 | +$12,518 |
| +2.5% | $192.19 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,228 | $-175,039 | +$8,961 | +$2,206 |
| +5% | $196.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-8,085 | $-181,906 | +$2,094 | -$8,107 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (21.8σ) | $-813,560 | $-740,179 | -$556,179 | -$652,982 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 25 Sep 2026 | 14d left | -$0.24/sh | -$3,037 cycle -$2,787 [-$2,518…+$6,160] · 56% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$1,738 NOT cap gain +$101,200 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,875/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($35,750/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-103,438 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.06 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.06 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (2.5σ) | $250 | $1,299 | +$104,237 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (2.7σ) | $-10,688 | $-429 | +$102,509 | +$0 |
| +5% | $36.75 (2.9σ) | $-21,625 | $-2,157 | +$100,781 | +$0 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.6σ) | $-58,625 | $-8,003 | +$94,935 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.35/sh | +$4,391 cycle +$5,016 [+$3,372…+$7,966] · 97% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$46,559 NOT cap gain +$56,378 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$33 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$2,052 cycle +$2,677 [+$834…+$5,617] · 80% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$18,586 NOT cap gain +$84,351 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,344/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,875/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($35,750/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,344/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$59,010 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 213.6% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 21.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-103,563 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $30-30.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $30.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $30.00 (1.7σ) | $625 | $-50,951 | +$51,987 | +$375 |
| +2.5% | $30.75 (1.9σ) | $-8,750 | $-52,432 | +$50,506 | -$9,000 |
| +5% | $31.50 (2.2σ) | $-18,125 | $-53,913 | +$49,024 | -$18,375 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.0σ) | $-120,750 | $-70,128 | +$32,810 | -$62,125 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (93 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$27 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.30/sh | +$2,804 cycle +$5,966 [+$791…+$3,123] · 87% credit | 65% surv 53% | -$77,121 NOT cap gain +$25,817 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$480 cycle +$3,642 [-$2,622…+$528] · 31% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$70,182 NOT cap gain +$32,755 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$30 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$0.00/sh | -$27 cycle +$3,135 [-$2,479…-$1] · 25% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$49,640 NOT cap gain +$53,298 |
| budget: banked $3,162 debit $27 (1% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3,135 cash · rolled 93 ct earn ≈ $15,941/mo while parked; 32 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,858/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,875/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($35,750/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,986/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$69,107 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 250.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 24.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (93 ct) | $-78,074 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $26.73 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,162 | $-79,925 | +$23,013 | +$2,976 |
| +2.5% | $27.67 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,115 | $-79,098 | +$23,840 | -$3,301 |
| +5% | $28.35 (1.1σ) | $-9,393 | $-78,271 | +$24,667 | -$9,579 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.0σ) | $-115,041 | $-79,427 | +$23,511 | -$71,424 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (120 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.29/sh | +$3,427 cycle +$8,227 [+$224…+$2,149] · 78% credit | 65% surv 53% | -$85,439 NOT cap gain +$17,499 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$420 cycle +$5,220 [-$4,565…-$1,502] · 14% credit | 68% surv 61% | -$79,184 NOT cap gain +$23,754 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$29 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$0.05/sh | -$623 cycle +$4,177 [-$4,653…-$2,191] · 9% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$59,176 NOT cap gain +$43,761 |
| budget: banked $4,800 debit $623 (13% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,177 cash · rolled 120 ct earn ≈ $18,323/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $18,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,875/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($35,750/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $18,020/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$100,450 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 363.6% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 36.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (120 ct) | $-102,480 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.70 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.70 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,800 | $-88,866 | +$14,072 | +$4,560 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,000 | $-89,824 | +$13,113 | -$3,240 |
| +5% | $27.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-10,800 | $-90,783 | +$12,154 | -$11,040 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.0σ) | $-159,720 | $-111,443 | -$8,505 | -$103,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (120 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.27/sh | +$3,241 cycle +$12,841 | 65% surv 53% | -$90,087 NOT cap gain +$12,851 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.37/sh | +$4,408 cycle +$14,008 | 66% surv 53% | -$88,920 NOT cap gain +$14,018 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$31 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$0.75/sh | -$8,952 cycle +$648 | 91% surv 91% | -$40,392 NOT cap gain +$62,545 |
| budget: banked $9,600 debit $8,952 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$648 cash · rolled 120 ct earn ≈ $3,215/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $36,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($17,875/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($35,750/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $36,020/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$107,650 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 389.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 38.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (120 ct) | $-102,180 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-26.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $9,600 | $-93,328 | +$9,610 | +$9,360 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,100 | $-95,512 | +$7,425 | +$1,860 |
| +5% | $26.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-5,400 | $-96,434 | +$6,503 | -$5,640 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.0σ) | $-166,920 | $-118,643 | -$15,705 | -$110,640 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $157/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,835/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($5,670/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $157/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-23,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 12d left | 3-11d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $188.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $188-190.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $190.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $190.00 (2.7σ) | $115 | $-1,809 | +$21,629 | +$2,530 |
| +2.5% | $194.75 (3.0σ) | $-2,260 | $-1,961 | +$21,477 | +$2,530 |
| +5% | $199.50 (3.2σ) | $-4,635 | $-2,113 | +$21,325 | +$2,530 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$160 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$1.52/sh | +$758 cycle +$978 [+$694…+$1,154] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$14,986 NOT cap gain +$8,452 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$162 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.71/sh | +$356 cycle +$576 [+$233…+$676] · 92% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$14,466 NOT cap gain +$8,972 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$166 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.54/sh | +$272 cycle +$492 [+$62…+$614] · 82% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$12,678 NOT cap gain +$10,760 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$168 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$0.23/sh | -$116 cycle +$104 [-$401…+$188] · 40% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$11,896 NOT cap gain +$11,542 |
| budget: banked $220 debit $116 (53% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$104 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,644/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,835/mo) | -71% |
| vs normal income ($5,670/mo) | 15% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $825/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,628 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 108.4% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 33.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-23,448 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $158.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $158-160.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $160.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $160.00 (1.5σ) | $220 | $-15,744 | +$7,694 | +$135 |
| +2.5% | $164.00 (1.9σ) | $-1,780 | $-15,872 | +$7,566 | -$1,865 |
| +5% | $168.00 (2.3σ) | $-3,780 | $-16,000 | +$7,438 | -$3,865 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.1σ) | $-12,780 | $-16,576 | +$6,862 | -$12,365 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$152 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$1.66/sh | +$666 cycle +$1,210 [+$497…+$745] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$18,247 NOT cap gain +$5,191 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$154 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.86/sh | +$344 cycle +$888 [+$129…+$391] · 90% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$17,646 NOT cap gain +$5,791 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$158 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.70/sh | +$279 cycle +$823 [-$54…+$301] · 69% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$15,840 NOT cap gain +$7,598 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$166 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$1.23/sh | -$493 cycle +$51 [-$1,020…-$522] · 3% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$13,101 NOT cap gain +$10,336 |
| budget: banked $544 debit $493 (91% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,342/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,040/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,835/mo) | -28% |
| vs normal income ($5,670/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,074/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,334 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 106.2% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 33.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-18,760 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $150.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $151-153.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $153.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $152.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $544 | $-18,913 | +$4,525 | +$476 |
| +2.5% | $156.31 (1.2σ) | $-981 | $-18,653 | +$4,784 | -$1,049 |
| +5% | $160.12 (1.6σ) | $-2,506 | $-18,394 | +$5,043 | -$2,574 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.1σ) | $-12,856 | $-16,735 | +$6,703 | -$12,524 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$150 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$1.71/sh | +$684 cycle +$1,460 [+$498…+$728] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$19,167 NOT cap gain +$4,271 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$152 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.91/sh | +$362 cycle +$1,138 [+$133…+$361] · 92% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$18,566 NOT cap gain +$4,871 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$156 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.74/sh | +$297 cycle +$1,073 [-$51…+$279] · 68% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$16,760 NOT cap gain +$6,678 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$166 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$1.61/sh | -$643 cycle +$133 [-$1,208…-$727] | 86% surv 84% | -$13,020 NOT cap gain +$10,418 |
| budget: banked $776 debit $643 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$133 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,056/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,910/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,835/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($5,670/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,944/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,102 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 111.9% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 34.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-18,760 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $148.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $148-151.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $151.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $150.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $776 | $-19,851 | +$3,587 | +$708 |
| +2.5% | $153.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-724 | $-19,596 | +$3,842 | -$792 |
| +5% | $157.50 (1.3σ) | $-2,224 | $-19,341 | +$4,097 | -$2,292 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.1σ) | $-13,624 | $-17,503 | +$5,935 | -$13,292 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$146 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$1.78/sh | +$888 cycle +$2,538 [+$593…+$752] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$19,978 NOT cap gain +$3,460 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$148 | 18 Sep 2026 | 11d left | +$0.97/sh | +$487 cycle +$2,137 [+$124…+$333] · 89% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$19,457 NOT cap gain +$3,981 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$151 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$1.15/sh | +$576 cycle +$2,226 [+$55…+$355] · 80% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$17,964 NOT cap gain +$5,474 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$154 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$19 cycle +$1,669 [-$629…-$245] · 9% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$16,883 NOT cap gain +$6,555 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$167 | 25 Sep 2026 | 18d left | -$2.15/sh | -$1,074 cycle +$576 [-$2,083…-$1,449] | 91% surv 91% | -$12,126 NOT cap gain +$11,312 |
| budget: banked $1,650 debit $1,074 (65% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$576 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $799/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,188/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,835/mo) | +118% |
| vs normal income ($5,670/mo) | 109% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,188/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,198 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 149.6% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 46.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-23,462 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $144.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $145-149.35 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $149.35 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $146.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,650 | $-20,866 | +$2,572 | +$1,565 |
| +2.5% | $149.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-175 | $-20,982 | +$2,455 | -$260 |
| +5% | $153.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,000 | $-21,099 | +$2,338 | -$2,085 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.1σ) | $-18,350 | $-22,146 | +$1,292 | -$17,935 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $485C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) | $487.34 | $492.42 | $9.82 | $7.49 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $2.34/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks DELL 1:1); only $7.49 is live theta (~$2,246). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its BE SS (no leg marks) ($398.00), so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) | $128.04 | $125.40 | $6.40 | $3.36 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $3.04/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks NEM 1:1); only $3.36 is live theta (~$1,680). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its CC-SS ($128.04), so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Gate on price: hold while NEM is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $128, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $125C at ~$6.04 ($3,019), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| NOW | Main:1299 | 10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (43d) | $144.44 | $155.41 | $13.07 | $8.64 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy $4.44/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks NOW 1:1); only $8.64 is live theta (~$8,635). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its CC-SS ($144.44), so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) | $339.43 | $345.88 | $0.94 | $0.94 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.57 OTM = 1.6% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $0.94 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,238 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $0.36/sh BELOW the $345.36 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $536 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $345.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) | $339.43 | $345.88 | $0.94 | $0.94 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.57 OTM = 1.6% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $0.94 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$413 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $40.49/sh BELOW the $385.49 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $20,246 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $345.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) | $39.22 | $40.24 | $0.60 | $0.60 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.78 OTM = 2.0% (0.3x a typical daily move). The $0.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$386 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $17.90/sh BELOW the $57.90 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $35,795 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $39.80 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) | $39.22 | $40.24 | $0.60 | $0.60 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.78 OTM = 2.0% (0.3x a typical daily move). The $0.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$386 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $26.20/sh BELOW the $66.20 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $52,398 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $39.80 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMD | Neville:0865 | 2x $475C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) | $445.40 | $477.65 | $0.35 | $0.35 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 29.60 OTM = 6.6% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $0.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$521 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $477.65 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $96C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) | $88.57 | $96.52 | $0.06 | $0.06 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.43 OTM = 8.4% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $0.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$234 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $96.52 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $93C 11 Sep 2026 (8d) | $79.82 | $94.27 | $0.31 | $0.31 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.18 OTM = 16.5% (3.7x a typical daily move). The $0.31 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$609 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $94.27 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $267.5C 11 Sep 2026 (8d) | $256.87 | $268.32 | $0.92 | $0.92 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.63 OTM = 4.1% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $0.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$385 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $268.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $42C 11 Sep 2026 (8d) | $39.22 | $42.46 | $0.79 | $0.79 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.78 OTM = 7.1% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $0.79 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$820 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.46 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $42C 11 Sep 2026 (8d) | $39.22 | $42.46 | $0.79 | $0.79 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.78 OTM = 7.1% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $0.79 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$820 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.46 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 (8d) | $63.40 | $69.65 | $0.64 | $0.64 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.60 OTM = 8.8% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $0.64 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$360 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $69.65 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $180C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) | $166.55 | $182.48 | $1.60 | $1.60 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.45 OTM = 8.1% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $1.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,216 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $182.48 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1650C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) | $1,523.91 | $1,695.75 | $39.90 | $39.90 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 126.09 OTM = 8.3% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $39.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,570 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,695.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) | $91.54 | $101.31 | $0.80 | $0.80 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.46 OTM = 9.2% (3.2x a typical daily move). The $0.80 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,511 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.31 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) | $934.16 | $1,043.97 | $11.72 | $11.72 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 95.84 OTM = 10.3% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $11.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,961 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,043.97 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) | $934.16 | $1,043.97 | $11.72 | $11.72 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 95.84 OTM = 10.3% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $11.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,785 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,043.97 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1x $1050C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) | $934.16 | $1,067.67 | $8.82 | $8.82 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 115.84 OTM = 12.4% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $8.82 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,762 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,067.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $36C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) | $28.75 | $36.63 | $0.20 | $0.20 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.25 OTM = 25.2% (5.1x a typical daily move). The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$875 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $36.63 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $425C 2 Oct 2026 (29d) | $410.67 | $429.85 | $6.33 | $6.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.33 OTM = 3.5% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $6.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,800 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $429.85 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (29d) | $182.71 | $229.43 | $3.28 | $3.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 37.29 OTM = 20.4% (4.7x a typical daily move). The $3.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,506 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $229.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (43d) | $339.43 | $374.44 | $5.10 | $5.10 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 25.57 OTM = 7.5% (4.1x a typical daily move). The $5.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,695 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $374.44 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $150C 16 Oct 2026 (43d) | $128.80 | $157.80 | $6.28 | $6.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 21.20 OTM = 16.5% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $6.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,101 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $157.80 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $150C 16 Oct 2026 (43d) | $128.80 | $157.75 | $6.28 | $6.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 21.20 OTM = 16.5% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $6.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,699 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $157.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (78d) | $616.38 | $687.21 | $31.07 | $31.07 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 48.62 OTM = 7.9% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $31.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,649 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $687.21 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $125C 20 Nov 2026 (78d) | $105.58 | $126.98 | $0.96 | $0.96 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.42 OTM = 18.4% (9.6x a typical daily move). The $0.96 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,313 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $126.98 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $24.02 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 54.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $24.02 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 34.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $24.02 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 63.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $11.37 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 45.2% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $35.59 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.6% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $44.49 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 37.0% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $10.55 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 37.0% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $10.55 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 74.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Neville:0865 | 2 | $489.91 | 2x $475C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $268C 11 Sep 2026 (8d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (29d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $93C 11 Sep 2026 (8d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $485C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $425C 2 Oct 2026 (29d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $345C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (43d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $345C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $36C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $125C 20 Nov 2026 (78d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $96C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $42C 11 Sep 2026 (8d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $42C 11 Sep 2026 (8d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $40C 4 Sep 2026 (1d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (78d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $150C 16 Oct 2026 (43d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $150C 16 Oct 2026 (43d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1 | $792.36 | 1x $1050C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) |
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5 | $114.54 | 5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) |
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10 | $108.93 | 10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (43d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $180C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 (8d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1650C 18 Sep 2026 (15d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 177 | 56% | 62% | +6pp |
| 60-70% | 347 | 64% | 62% | -3pp |
| 70-80% | 445 | 76% | 83% | +7pp |
| 80-90% | 575 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 945 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2489 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 8 graded weeks; last week 0.83x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 157 real buyback(s) recorded · 79 roll(s), net +$0.69/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 79 real rolls: buyback $6.23/sh, replacement credit financed 111% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.69/sh (55 of 79 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.