FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $40,720/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $31,492/mo
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $234,728 locked in if all 13 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 1 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| IREN-LC45 ↗ ▲ UP +5.0% Neville:0865 · This Fri | 20 | $46.91 | $58.53 | 20 × $60 16 Oct (38d) $3,820 cyc · $3,016/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:42%hist 39% | 20 × $54 11 Sep (3d) $520 cyc · $5,200/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% | 16 × $54 11 Sep (3d) $416 cyc · $4,160/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% | 🎯 18 × $53 11 Sep (3d) $648 cyc · $6,480/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 26% | 20 × $51 11 Sep (3d) $1,260 cyc · $12,600/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 31% | $5,005 | -$9,304 (155.1% IC) | 24.8% |
| IREN-LC50 ↗ ▲ UP +5.0% RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 20 | $46.91 | $67.08 | 20 × $65 11 Sep (3d) $40 cyc · $400/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:0%hist 3% | 20 × $54 11 Sep (3d) $520 cyc · $5,200/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% | 16 × $54 11 Sep (3d) $416 cyc · $4,160/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% | 🎯 18 × $53 11 Sep (3d) $648 cyc · $6,480/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 26% | 20 × $51 11 Sep (3d) $1,260 cyc · $12,600/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 31% | $3,610 | -$24,699 (180.3% IC) | 43.0% |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $18.55 | $17.33 BE | +7.0% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| SPY Neville:0865 | 12 | $769.17 | $764.00 BE | +0.7% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐ Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $26.23 | $34.54 | 25 × $35 2 Oct (24d) $400 cyc · $500/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% | 25 × $30 11 Sep (3d) $200 cyc · $2,000/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:12%hist 13% | 🎯 18 × $28.50 11 Sep (3d) $252 cyc · $2,520/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 31% | 14 × $28 11 Sep (3d) $378 cyc · $3,780/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:43%hist 39% | 20 × $27.50 11 Sep (3d) $760 cyc · $7,600/mo 73% survhist 83% · T:56%hist 44% | $4,837 | -$10,622 (192.2% IC) | 31.7% |
| COIN-LC500 ↗ ▼ DOWN -2.8% Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $179.44 | $350.48 | 25 × $400 18 Sep (10d) $25 cyc · $75/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:0%hist 3% | 25 × $200 11 Sep (3d) $2,150 cyc · $21,500/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% | 22 × $202.50 11 Sep (3d) $1,584 cyc · $15,840/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 13% | 🎯 22 × $197.50 11 Sep (3d) $2,398 cyc · $23,980/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:22%hist 26% | 21 × $190 11 Sep (3d) $4,746 cyc · $47,460/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:44%hist 39% | $12,888 | -$334,157 (212.2% IC) | 95.3% |
| TOTAL (4) | 90 | following every 🎯 $3,946 cyc · $39,460/mo | $4,285 cyc · $3,991/mo | $3,390 cyc · $33,900/mo | $2,668 cyc · $26,680/mo | $4,072 cyc · $40,720/mo | $8,026 cyc · $80,260/mo | $26,340 | -$378,782 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$60 | 23 Oct 2026 | 26d left | +$0.70/sh | +$1,394 cycle +$5,214 [+$1,231…+$2,081] · 100% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$9,130 SAFE cap gain +$34,910 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$60 | 23 Oct 2026 | 26d left | +$0.64/sh | +$1,287 cycle +$5,107 [+$1,113…+$1,956] · 100% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$9,235 SAFE cap gain +$35,015 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$61 | 23 Oct 2026 | 26d left | +$0.09/sh | +$185 cycle +$4,005 [-$461…+$401] · 41% credit | 69% surv 59% | +$10,401 SAFE cap gain +$36,181 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$61 | 23 Oct 2026 | 26d left | +$0.09/sh | +$185 cycle +$4,005 [-$461…+$401] · 41% credit | 69% surv 59% | +$10,401 SAFE cap gain +$36,181 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$65 | 23 Oct 2026 | 26d left | -$1.22/sh | -$2,439 cycle +$1,381 [-$2,898…-$2,261] · 2% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$16,849 SAFE cap gain +$42,629 |
| budget: banked $3,820 debit $2,439 (64% used ≈ 3.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,381 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,618/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,016/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,265/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($12,529/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,763/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,890 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 20d left | 3-19d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $59.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $59-61.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $61.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $60.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,820 | $7,736 | +$33,516 | +$12,280 |
| +2.5% | $61.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $820 | $8,138 | +$33,918 | +$12,280 |
| +5% | $63.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,180 | $8,540 | +$34,320 | +$12,280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$54 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.63/sh | +$3,261 cycle +$3,781 [+$2,872…+$3,755] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$5,911 NOT cap gain +$19,869 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$72 | 23 Oct 2026 | 44d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,444 cycle +$1,964 [+$415…+$1,954] · 80% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$33,308 SAFE cap gain +$59,088 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$72 | 16 Oct 2026 | 36d left | +$0.43/sh | +$865 cycle +$1,385 [-$252…+$1,358] · 70% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$32,729 SAFE cap gain +$58,509 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$58 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$354 cycle +$874 [-$661…+$679] · 56% credit | 76% surv 70% | +$466 SAFE cap gain +$26,246 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,265/mo) | -17% |
| vs normal income ($12,529/mo) | 42% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,947/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,537 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 142.3% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 9.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,830 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $53.46 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $53-54.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $54.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $54.00 (1.6σ) | $520 | $-9,172 | +$16,608 | -$1,020 |
| +2.5% | $55.35 (1.8σ) | $-2,180 | $-8,810 | +$16,970 | -$3,020 |
| +5% | $56.70 (2.1σ) | $-4,880 | $-8,448 | +$17,332 | -$3,020 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$54 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.63/sh | +$2,609 cycle +$3,025 [+$2,258…+$2,938] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$6,359 NOT cap gain +$19,421 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$72 | 23 Oct 2026 | 44d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,155 cycle +$1,571 [+$238…+$1,465] · 82% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$26,386 SAFE cap gain +$52,166 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$72 | 16 Oct 2026 | 36d left | +$0.43/sh | +$692 cycle +$1,108 [-$344…+$979] · 66% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$25,923 SAFE cap gain +$51,703 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$58 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$283 cycle +$699 [-$698…+$482] · 52% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$638 NOT cap gain +$25,142 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,160/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,265/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($12,529/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,831/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,830 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 113.8% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 7.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-20,664 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $53.46 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $53-54.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $54.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $54.00 (1.6σ) | $416 | $-8,968 | +$16,812 | -$816 |
| +2.5% | $55.35 (1.8σ) | $-1,744 | $-8,206 | +$17,574 | -$2,416 |
| +5% | $56.70 (2.1σ) | $-3,904 | $-7,844 | +$17,936 | -$2,416 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$53 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.59/sh | +$2,854 cycle +$3,502 [+$2,398…+$3,221] · 97% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$8,304 NOT cap gain +$17,476 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$71 | 23 Oct 2026 | 44d left | +$0.61/sh | +$1,098 cycle +$1,746 [+$62…+$1,474] · 76% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$27,758 SAFE cap gain +$53,538 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$71 | 16 Oct 2026 | 36d left | +$0.34/sh | +$605 cycle +$1,253 [-$524…+$953] · 59% credit | 88% surv 86% | +$27,264 SAFE cap gain +$53,044 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$57 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$256 cycle +$904 [-$776…+$496] · 50% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$2,037 NOT cap gain +$23,743 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,265/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($12,529/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,689/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,304 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 155.1% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 9.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-23,229 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $52.47 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $52-53.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $53.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $53.00 (1.3σ) | $648 | $-11,158 | +$14,622 | -$738 |
| +2.5% | $54.32 (1.6σ) | $-1,737 | $-10,538 | +$15,242 | -$3,123 |
| +5% | $55.65 (1.9σ) | $-4,122 | $-10,048 | +$15,732 | -$4,338 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (2.1σ) | $-5,652 | $-9,820 | +$15,960 | -$4,338 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$51 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.50/sh | +$2,994 cycle +$4,254 [+$2,432…+$3,313] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$12,242 NOT cap gain +$13,538 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$64 | 23 Oct 2026 | 44d left | +$1.16/sh | +$2,314 cycle +$3,574 [+$1,223…+$2,628] · 91% credit | 84% surv 80% | +$16,775 SAFE cap gain +$42,555 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$69 | 16 Oct 2026 | 36d left | +$0.16/sh | +$312 cycle +$1,572 [-$1,201…+$506] · 40% credit | 88% surv 87% | +$26,112 SAFE cap gain +$51,892 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$55 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$149 cycle +$1,409 [-$1,079…+$256] · 36% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$5,803 NOT cap gain +$19,977 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,265/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($12,529/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,347/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,797 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 230.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 14.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-25,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $50.49 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-51.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $51.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $51.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,260 | $-15,236 | +$10,544 | -$280 |
| +2.5% | $52.27 (1.2σ) | $-1,290 | $-14,894 | +$10,886 | -$2,830 |
| +5% | $53.55 (1.5σ) | $-3,840 | $-14,553 | +$11,227 | -$5,380 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (2.1σ) | $-9,740 | $-13,762 | +$12,018 | -$8,280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$2.16/sh | +$4,322 cycle +$4,362 | 67% surv 54% | +$673 SAFE cap gain +$45,073 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$71 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$107 cycle +$147 | 77% surv 72% | +$10,168 SAFE cap gain +$54,568 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 9 Oct 2026 | 30d left | +$0.28/sh | +$560 cycle +$600 | 83% surv 80% | +$37,621 SAFE cap gain +$82,021 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,265/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($12,529/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $100/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,123 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 30.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 3.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-44,410 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $64.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $64-65.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $65.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $65.00 (4.0σ) | $40 | $-3,650 | +$40,750 | -$280 |
| +2.5% | $66.62 (4.3σ) | $-3,210 | $-3,243 | +$41,157 | -$280 |
| +5% | $68.25 (4.7σ) | $-6,460 | $-2,837 | +$41,563 | -$280 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$54 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.63/sh | +$3,261 cycle +$3,781 [+$2,872…+$3,755] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$24,659 NOT cap gain +$19,741 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$72 | 23 Oct 2026 | 44d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,444 cycle +$1,964 [+$415…+$1,954] · 80% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$14,235 SAFE cap gain +$58,635 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$72 | 16 Oct 2026 | 36d left | +$0.43/sh | +$865 cycle +$1,385 [-$252…+$1,358] · 70% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$13,656 SAFE cap gain +$58,056 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$58 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$354 cycle +$874 [-$661…+$679] · 56% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$18,355 NOT cap gain +$26,045 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,265/mo) | -17% |
| vs normal income ($12,529/mo) | 42% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,900/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,643 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 187.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 23.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-44,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $53.46 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $53-54.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $54.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $54.00 (1.6σ) | $520 | $-27,920 | +$16,480 | +$200 |
| +2.5% | $55.35 (1.8σ) | $-2,180 | $-27,582 | +$16,818 | -$2,500 |
| +5% | $56.70 (2.1σ) | $-4,880 | $-27,245 | +$17,155 | -$5,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (3.6σ) | $-18,340 | $-25,562 | +$18,838 | -$18,660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$54 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.63/sh | +$2,609 cycle +$3,025 [+$2,258…+$2,938] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$25,351 NOT cap gain +$19,049 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$72 | 23 Oct 2026 | 44d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,155 cycle +$1,571 [+$238…+$1,465] · 82% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$11,069 SAFE cap gain +$55,469 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$72 | 16 Oct 2026 | 36d left | +$0.43/sh | +$692 cycle +$1,108 [-$344…+$979] · 66% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$10,605 SAFE cap gain +$55,005 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$58 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$283 cycle +$699 [-$698…+$482] · 52% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$18,466 NOT cap gain +$25,934 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,160/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,265/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($12,529/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,052/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,515 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 149.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 19.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-35,560 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $53.46 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $53-54.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $54.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $54.00 (1.6σ) | $416 | $-27,960 | +$16,440 | +$160 |
| +2.5% | $55.35 (1.8σ) | $-1,744 | $-27,082 | +$17,318 | -$2,000 |
| +5% | $56.70 (2.1σ) | $-3,904 | $-26,205 | +$18,195 | -$4,160 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (3.6σ) | $-14,672 | $-21,830 | +$22,570 | -$14,928 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$53 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.59/sh | +$2,854 cycle +$3,502 [+$2,398…+$3,221] · 97% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$27,156 NOT cap gain +$17,244 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$71 | 23 Oct 2026 | 44d left | +$0.61/sh | +$1,098 cycle +$1,746 [+$62…+$1,474] · 76% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$10,580 SAFE cap gain +$54,980 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$71 | 16 Oct 2026 | 36d left | +$0.34/sh | +$605 cycle +$1,253 [-$524…+$953] · 59% credit | 88% surv 86% | +$10,087 SAFE cap gain +$54,487 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$57 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$256 cycle +$904 [-$776…+$496] · 50% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$20,544 NOT cap gain +$23,856 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,265/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($12,529/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,276/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,699 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 180.3% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 22.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-39,987 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $52.47 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $52-53.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $53.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $53.00 (1.3σ) | $648 | $-30,010 | +$14,390 | +$360 |
| +2.5% | $54.32 (1.6σ) | $-1,737 | $-29,413 | +$14,987 | -$2,025 |
| +5% | $55.65 (1.9σ) | $-4,122 | $-28,817 | +$15,583 | -$4,410 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (3.6σ) | $-18,126 | $-25,316 | +$19,084 | -$18,414 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$51 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.50/sh | +$2,994 cycle +$4,254 [+$2,432…+$3,313] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$30,935 NOT cap gain +$13,465 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$64 | 23 Oct 2026 | 44d left | +$1.16/sh | +$2,314 cycle +$3,574 [+$1,223…+$2,628] · 91% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$2,155 NOT cap gain +$42,245 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$69 | 16 Oct 2026 | 36d left | +$0.16/sh | +$312 cycle +$1,572 [-$1,201…+$506] · 40% credit | 88% surv 87% | +$7,093 SAFE cap gain +$51,493 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$55 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$149 cycle +$1,409 [-$1,079…+$256] · 36% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$24,570 NOT cap gain +$19,830 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,265/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($12,529/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,300/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,903 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 225.6% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 28.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-44,420 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $50.49 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-51.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $51.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $51.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,260 | $-33,930 | +$10,470 | +$940 |
| +2.5% | $52.27 (1.2σ) | $-1,290 | $-33,611 | +$10,789 | -$1,610 |
| +5% | $53.55 (1.5σ) | $-3,840 | $-33,292 | +$11,108 | -$4,160 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (3.6σ) | $-23,600 | $-30,822 | +$13,578 | -$23,920 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,706/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($7,412/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-18,337 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 13d left | 3-12d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (1.5σ) | $400 | $1,305 | +$19,080 | +$5,375 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (1.7σ) | $-1,788 | $981 | +$18,756 | +$5,375 |
| +5% | $36.75 (1.8σ) | $-3,975 | $658 | +$18,433 | +$5,375 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (2.3σ) | $-11,375 | $-438 | +$17,337 | +$5,375 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.35/sh | +$866 cycle +$1,066 [+$92…+$1,290] · 77% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$8,678 NOT cap gain +$9,097 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$33 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.41/sh | +$1,018 cycle +$1,218 [+$43…+$1,479] · 76% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$2,627 NOT cap gain +$15,148 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$31 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.06/sh | +$145 cycle +$345 [-$772…+$506] · 47% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$6,695 NOT cap gain +$11,080 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$116 cycle +$316 [-$1,059…+$532] · 42% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$1,399 NOT cap gain +$16,376 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$35 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.06/sh | -$153 cycle +$47 [-$1,329…+$259] · 36% credit | 81% surv 78% | +$462 SAFE cap gain +$18,237 |
| budget: banked $200 debit $153 (77% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$47 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,710/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,706/mo) | -46% |
| vs normal income ($7,412/mo) | 27% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,152 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 201.9% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 20.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-18,275 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $30-30.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $30.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $30.00 (1.8σ) | $200 | $-9,545 | +$8,230 | +$175 |
| +2.5% | $30.75 (2.2σ) | $-1,675 | $-9,822 | +$7,953 | -$1,700 |
| +5% | $31.50 (2.6σ) | $-3,550 | $-10,100 | +$7,675 | -$3,575 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.6σ) | $-24,075 | $-13,138 | +$4,637 | -$7,325 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.32/sh | +$574 cycle +$826 [-$187…+$684] · 69% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$12,107 NOT cap gain +$5,668 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$31 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.31/sh | +$562 cycle +$814 [-$383…+$655] · 64% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$6,219 NOT cap gain +$11,556 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$29 cycle +$281 [-$844…+$95] · 33% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$9,947 NOT cap gain +$7,828 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.14/sh | -$244 cycle +$8 [-$1,375…-$188] · 17% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$2,954 NOT cap gain +$14,821 |
| budget: banked $252 debit $244 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$8 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $2,266/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,520/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,706/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($7,412/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,541/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,622 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 192.2% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 19.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-13,176 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $28.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $28-28.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $28.50 (1.1σ) | $252 | $-12,681 | +$5,094 | +$234 |
| +2.5% | $29.21 (1.5σ) | $-1,030 | $-12,446 | +$5,329 | -$1,048 |
| +5% | $29.93 (1.8σ) | $-2,313 | $-12,211 | +$5,564 | -$2,331 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.6σ) | $-19,926 | $-13,679 | +$4,096 | -$7,866 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (14 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$30 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.40/sh | +$566 cycle +$944 [-$239…+$636] · 66% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$9,280 NOT cap gain +$8,495 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.31/sh | +$434 cycle +$812 [-$217…+$515] · 65% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$13,182 NOT cap gain +$4,593 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$31 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.28/sh | +$395 cycle +$773 [-$414…+$460] · 55% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$7,321 NOT cap gain +$10,454 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.00/sh | +$4 cycle +$382 [-$710…+$43] · 28% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$10,907 NOT cap gain +$6,868 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.16/sh | -$222 cycle +$156 [-$1,154…-$202] · 9% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$3,678 NOT cap gain +$14,097 |
| budget: banked $378 debit $222 (59% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$156 cash · rolled 14 ct earn ≈ $1,662/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,780/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,706/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($7,412/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,813/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,779 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 158.9% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 15.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (14 ct) | $-10,087 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $28-28.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $28.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $378 | $-13,616 | +$4,159 | +$364 |
| +2.5% | $28.70 (1.2σ) | $-602 | $-13,105 | +$4,670 | -$616 |
| +5% | $29.40 (1.6σ) | $-1,582 | $-12,594 | +$5,181 | -$1,596 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.6σ) | $-16,016 | $-12,449 | +$5,326 | -$6,636 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$29 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.38/sh | +$757 cycle +$1,517 [-$459…+$755] · 61% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$9,778 NOT cap gain +$7,997 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.30/sh | +$602 cycle +$1,362 [-$372…+$636] · 60% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$13,703 NOT cap gain +$4,072 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.25/sh | +$505 cycle +$1,265 [-$729…+$494] · 48% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$7,900 NOT cap gain +$9,875 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$28 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.10/sh | +$202 cycle +$962 [-$846…+$190] · 31% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$12,463 NOT cap gain +$5,312 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$32 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.18/sh | -$361 cycle +$399 [-$1,783…-$449] · 7% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$4,506 NOT cap gain +$13,269 |
| budget: banked $760 debit $361 (47% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$399 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,235/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,706/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($7,412/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,615/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,322 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 241.1% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 24.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-14,640 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-28.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $760 | $-14,305 | +$3,470 | +$740 |
| +2.5% | $28.19 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-615 | $-14,216 | +$3,559 | -$635 |
| +5% | $28.88 (1.3σ) | $-1,990 | $-14,126 | +$3,649 | -$2,010 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (6.6σ) | $-23,660 | $-16,073 | +$1,702 | -$10,260 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$400 | 25 Sep 2026 | 12d left | +$9.64/sh | +$24,090 cycle +$24,115 | 70% surv 55% | +$117 SAFE cap gain +$182,367 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$416 | 25 Sep 2026 | 12d left | +$2.88/sh | +$7,212 cycle +$7,237 | 72% surv 61% | -$5,597 NOT cap gain +$176,653 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$423 | 2 Oct 2026 | 19d left | +$1.38/sh | +$3,462 cycle +$3,487 | 72% surv 63% | -$3,966 NOT cap gain +$178,284 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $75/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,051/mo) | -100% |
| vs normal income ($46,103/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $75/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-182,288 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $396.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $396-400.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $400.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $400.00 (10.9σ) | $25 | $-23,973 | +$158,277 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $410.00 (11.4σ) | $-24,975 | $-41,798 | +$140,452 | +$0 |
| +5% | $420.00 (11.8σ) | $-49,975 | $-59,623 | +$122,627 | +$0 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (18.9σ) | $-407,475 | $-314,521 | -$132,271 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$200 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$4.38/sh | +$10,955 cycle +$13,105 [+$9,836…+$13,632] · 100% credit | 69% surv 52% | -$154,393 NOT cap gain +$27,857 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$226 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.95/sh | +$2,369 cycle +$4,519 [-$1,859…+$4,599] · 67% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$144,639 NOT cap gain +$37,611 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$228 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.37/sh | +$922 cycle +$3,072 [-$3,638…+$3,050] · 53% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$144,293 NOT cap gain +$37,957 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$211 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.30/sh | +$745 cycle +$2,895 [-$2,966…+$2,493] · 52% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$157,027 NOT cap gain +$25,223 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$233 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.57/sh | -$1,414 cycle +$736 [-$6,331…+$683] · 32% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$143,042 NOT cap gain +$39,208 |
| budget: banked $2,150 debit $1,414 (66% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$736 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $16,650/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $21,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,051/mo) | -7% |
| vs normal income ($46,103/mo) | 47% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $21,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$374,049 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 237.5% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 160.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.1 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-182,463 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $198.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $198-200.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $200.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $200.00 (1.8σ) | $2,150 | $-165,348 | +$16,902 | +$2,125 |
| +2.5% | $205.00 (2.3σ) | $-10,350 | $-174,261 | +$7,989 | -$10,375 |
| +5% | $210.00 (2.7σ) | $-22,850 | $-183,173 | -$923 | -$22,875 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (34.5σ) | $-905,350 | $-812,396 | -$630,146 | -$497,875 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (22 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$202 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$4.48/sh | +$9,863 cycle +$11,447 [+$9,381…+$12,399] · 99% credit | 69% surv 52% | -$154,254 NOT cap gain +$27,996 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$228 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.12/sh | +$2,462 cycle +$4,046 [-$445…+$4,799] · 72% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$143,316 NOT cap gain +$38,934 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$213 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.39/sh | +$848 cycle +$2,432 [-$1,597…+$2,488] · 57% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$155,693 NOT cap gain +$26,557 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$233 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.14/sh | +$311 cycle +$1,895 [-$3,000…+$2,515] · 53% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$141,880 NOT cap gain +$40,370 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$236 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.42/sh | -$928 cycle +$656 [-$4,516…+$1,204] · 39% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$141,325 NOT cap gain +$40,925 |
| budget: banked $1,584 debit $928 (59% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$656 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $15,425/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,840/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,051/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($46,103/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,849/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$323,971 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 205.7% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 139.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.0 mo |
| Surgical close (22 ct) | $-160,479 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $200.47 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $200-203.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $203.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $202.50 (2.1σ) | $1,584 | $-164,117 | +$18,133 | +$1,562 |
| +2.5% | $207.56 (2.5σ) | $-9,553 | $-171,623 | +$10,627 | -$9,575 |
| +5% | $212.62 (3.0σ) | $-20,691 | $-179,128 | +$3,122 | -$20,713 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (34.5σ) | $-791,516 | $-747,459 | -$565,209 | -$432,938 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (22 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$198 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$4.28/sh | +$9,420 cycle +$11,818 [+$7,965…+$11,199] · 98% credit | 69% surv 52% | -$157,471 NOT cap gain +$24,779 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$221 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.27/sh | +$2,784 cycle +$5,182 [-$1,606…+$4,159] · 68% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$147,561 NOT cap gain +$34,689 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$208 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.21/sh | +$467 cycle +$2,865 [-$3,637…+$1,423] · 47% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$158,847 NOT cap gain +$23,403 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$226 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$468 cycle +$2,866 [-$4,519…+$1,742] · 45% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$146,290 NOT cap gain +$35,960 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$233 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$1.04/sh | -$2,299 cycle +$99 [-$7,989…-$1,226] · 12% credit | 87% surv 84% | -$143,675 NOT cap gain +$38,575 |
| budget: banked $2,398 debit $2,299 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$99 cash · rolled 22 ct earn ≈ $12,876/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $23,980/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,051/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($46,103/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $23,989/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$334,157 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 212.2% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 143.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.2 mo |
| Surgical close (22 ct) | $-160,578 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $195.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $196-198.68 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $198.68 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $197.50 (1.6σ) | $2,398 | $-166,891 | +$15,359 | +$2,376 |
| +2.5% | $202.44 (2.1σ) | $-8,464 | $-174,211 | +$8,039 | -$8,486 |
| +5% | $207.38 (2.5σ) | $-19,327 | $-181,531 | +$719 | -$19,349 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (34.5σ) | $-801,702 | $-757,645 | -$575,395 | -$443,124 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (21 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$190 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$3.99/sh | +$8,375 cycle +$13,121 [+$6,400…+$9,578] · 99% credit | 69% surv 52% | -$161,549 NOT cap gain +$20,701 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$208 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.86/sh | +$3,911 cycle +$8,657 [-$718…+$4,678] · 70% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$153,055 NOT cap gain +$29,195 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$198 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.68/sh | +$1,419 cycle +$6,165 [-$2,435…+$1,925] · 48% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$162,721 NOT cap gain +$19,529 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$216 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.31/sh | +$645 cycle +$5,391 [-$4,649…+$1,136] · 34% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$150,939 NOT cap gain +$31,311 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$231 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$1.80/sh | -$3,784 cycle +$962 [-$10,159…-$3,677] | 90% surv 88% | -$144,605 NOT cap gain +$37,645 |
| budget: banked $4,746 debit $3,784 (80% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$962 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $9,172/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $47,460/mo |
| vs 50% target ($23,051/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($46,103/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $47,472/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$332,261 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 211.0% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 142.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.2 mo |
| Surgical close (21 ct) | $-153,269 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $188.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $188-192.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $192.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $190.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,746 | $-169,923 | +$12,327 | +$4,725 |
| +2.5% | $194.75 (1.4σ) | $-5,229 | $-176,490 | +$5,760 | -$5,250 |
| +5% | $199.50 (1.8σ) | $-15,204 | $-183,057 | -$807 | -$15,225 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (34.5σ) | $-778,554 | $-750,796 | -$568,546 | -$436,275 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $93C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $94.50 | $94.27 | $4.25 | $2.75 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $1.50/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks CRWV 1:1); only $2.75 is live theta (~$1,375). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This strike caps $34.73/sh BELOW the CC-SS $127.73: assignment locks about $17,363 before premium, so the roll is about protecting recovery, not just income. ▸ Gate on price: hold while CRWV is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $95, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $93C at ~$3.94 ($1,969), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| NEM | Main:1299 | 5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) | $127.50 | $125.40 | $5.28 | $2.78 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $2.50/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks NEM 1:1); only $2.78 is live theta (~$1,388). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its CC-SS ($127.50), so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Gate on price: hold while NEM is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $128, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $125C at ~$5.66 ($2,831), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $103C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $101.64 | $103.74 | $2.65 | $2.65 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.36 OTM = 1.3% (0.3x a typical daily move). The $2.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$346 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $12.87/sh BELOW the $115.87 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $6,435 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $103.74 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $103C at ~$2.44 ($1,220), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $240C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $233.47 | $240.66 | $1.25 | $1.25 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.53 OTM = 2.8% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $1.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$613 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $240.66 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $240C at ~$0.74 ($737), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $48C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $46.62 | $48.41 | $1.42 | $1.42 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.38 OTM = 3.0% (0.4x a typical daily move). The $1.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$726 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $2.41/sh BELOW the $50.41 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $4,820 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $47.76 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 20x $48C at ~$1.46 ($2,930), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $48C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $46.62 | $48.41 | $1.42 | $1.42 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.38 OTM = 3.0% (0.4x a typical daily move). The $1.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$718 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $2.41/sh BELOW the $50.41 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $4,820 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $47.76 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 20x $48C at ~$1.46 ($2,930), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $332.5C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $316.60 | $335.00 | $2.95 | $2.95 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.90 OTM = 5.0% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $2.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$245 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $267.04/sh BELOW the $599.54 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $26,704 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $335.00 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 1x $332.5C at ~$3.33 ($332), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $65.59 | $69.65 | $0.81 | $0.81 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.41 OTM = 5.2% (1.0x a typical daily move). The $0.81 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$360 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $77.94/sh BELOW the $146.94 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $46,764 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $69.65 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 6x $69C at ~$0.74 ($447), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $180C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) | $178.22 | $182.48 | $5.35 | $5.35 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.78 OTM = 1.0% (0.3x a typical daily move). The $5.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,216 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $45.78/sh BELOW the $225.78 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $22,888 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $182.48 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $180C at ~$7.89 ($3,944), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1x $1050C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) | $1,020.22 | $1,067.67 | $32.00 | $32.00 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 29.78 OTM = 2.9% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $32.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,762 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,067.67 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 1x $1050C at ~$33.06 ($3,306), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| AMD | Neville:0865 | 2x $510C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) | $492.86 | $514.65 | $11.73 | $11.73 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.14 OTM = 3.5% (1.0x a typical daily move). The $11.73 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$919 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $514.65 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 2x $510C at ~$12.41 ($2,482), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (17d) | $524.59 | $565.44 | $18.70 | $18.70 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 25.41 OTM = 4.8% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $18.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,616 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $565.44 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 3x $550C at ~$18.75 ($5,625), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1800C 2 Oct 2026 (24d) | $1,764.70 | $1,882.78 | $134.70 | $134.70 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 35.30 OTM = 2.0% (0.4x a typical daily move). The $134.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,273 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,882.78 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 1x $1800C at ~$141.15 ($14,115), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| NOW | Main:1299 | 10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (38d) | $135.39 | $155.41 | $7.70 | $7.70 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.61 OTM = 3.4% (1.0x a typical daily move). The $7.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$15,359 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $155.41 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $140C at ~$7.61 ($7,612), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
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| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $36C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) | $27.83 | $36.63 | $0.11 | $0.11 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.17 OTM = 29.4% (5.1x a typical daily move). The $0.11 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$875 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $36.63 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $267.5C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $255.85 | $268.32 | $0.46 | $0.46 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.65 OTM = 4.6% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $0.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$385 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $268.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $350C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $331.77 | $350.70 | $0.36 | $0.36 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.23 OTM = 5.5% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $0.36 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$979 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $350.70 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $350C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $331.77 | $350.70 | $0.36 | $0.36 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.23 OTM = 5.5% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $0.36 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$326 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $350.70 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $160C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $147.62 | $161.00 | $0.50 | $0.50 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.38 OTM = 8.4% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $0.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$477 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $161.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $30C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) | $26.28 | $30.13 | $0.28 | $0.28 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.72 OTM = 14.2% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $0.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$758 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $29.85 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) | $94.23 | $101.31 | $0.88 | $0.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.77 OTM = 6.1% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $0.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,511 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.31 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1120C 2 Oct 2026 (24d) | $1,020.22 | $1,151.29 | $41.00 | $41.00 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 99.78 OTM = 9.8% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $41.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$15,620 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,151.29 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1120C 2 Oct 2026 (24d) | $1,020.22 | $1,151.27 | $41.00 | $41.00 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 99.78 OTM = 9.8% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $41.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,243 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,151.27 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (24d) | $180.00 | $229.43 | $3.00 | $3.00 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 40.00 OTM = 22.2% (4.8x a typical daily move). The $3.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,506 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $229.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (38d) | $331.77 | $374.44 | $3.55 | $3.55 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 33.23 OTM = 10.0% (5.1x a typical daily move). The $3.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,695 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $374.44 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (38d) | $46.62 | $55.88 | $2.86 | $2.86 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.38 OTM = 18.0% (3.1x a typical daily move). The $2.86 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (38d) | $46.62 | $55.88 | $2.86 | $2.86 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.38 OTM = 18.0% (3.1x a typical daily move). The $2.86 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (73d) | $616.81 | $687.21 | $30.27 | $30.27 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 48.19 OTM = 7.8% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $30.27 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,649 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $687.21 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $125C 20 Nov 2026 (73d) | $103.34 | $126.98 | $0.61 | $0.61 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 21.66 OTM = 21.0% (10.9x a typical daily move). The $0.61 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,313 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $126.98 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (73d) | $136.53 | $180.96 | $9.55 | $9.55 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 33.47 OTM = 24.5% (4.8x a typical daily move). The $9.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (73d) | $136.53 | $180.95 | $9.55 | $9.55 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 33.47 OTM = 24.5% (4.8x a typical daily move). The $9.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (101d) | $403.43 | $476.90 | $5.25 | $5.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 66.57 OTM = 16.5% (9.7x a typical daily move). The $5.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,847 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $476.90 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $24.42 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 54.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $24.42 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $24.42 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 62.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $12.68 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 38.9% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $37.52 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.2% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $44.24 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 37.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $11.12 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.6% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $11.12 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 72.9% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Neville:0865 | 2 | $489.91 | 2x $510C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $268C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $332C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (24d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $93C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (17d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (101d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $350C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $350C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (38d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $350C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $350C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $36C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $125C 20 Nov 2026 (73d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $103C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $48C 11 Sep 2026 (3d), 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (38d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $48C 11 Sep 2026 (3d), 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (38d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (73d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (73d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (73d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1 | $792.36 | 1x $1050C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1120C 2 Oct 2026 (24d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1120C 2 Oct 2026 (24d) |
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5 | $114.54 | 5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) |
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10 | $108.93 | 10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (38d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $240C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $180C 18 Sep 2026 (10d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1800C 2 Oct 2026 (24d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $160C 11 Sep 2026 (3d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 180 | 56% | 63% | +7pp |
| 60-70% | 362 | 64% | 62% | -3pp |
| 70-80% | 460 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 600 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 988 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2590 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 9 graded weeks; last week 0.93x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 160 real buyback(s) recorded · 82 roll(s), net +$0.68/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 82 real rolls: buyback $6.35/sh, replacement credit financed 111% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.68/sh (58 of 82 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.