FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $12,643/mo (53% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $-1,410/mo · plus $8,100/mo CC-safe on 1 shallow row(s) ⓘ ⚠ 1 negative E[net]
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $724,332 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| COPX ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 20 | $85.85 | $95.75 | 20 × $96 16 Oct (21d) $1,000 cyc · $1,429/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:27%hist 25% | 20 × $93 2 Oct (7d) $300 cyc · $1,286/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% | 18 × $89 2 Oct (7d) $810 cyc · $3,471/mo 73% survhist 84% · T:54%hist 44% | 🎯 18 × $88 2 Oct (7d) $1,260 cyc · $5,400/mo 67% survhist 65% · T:68%hist 58% | 20 × $87.50 2 Oct (7d) $2,400 cyc · $10,286/mo 63% survhist 65% · T:75%hist 68% | $2,500 | -$12,692 (22.3% IC) | 11.5% |
| SPCX ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 5 | $147.93 | $189.80 | 5 × $190 23 Oct (28d) $195 cyc · $209/mo 97% survhist 96% · T:7%hist 3% | 5 × $162.50 2 Oct (7d) $240 cyc · $1,029/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% | 🎯 5 × $157.50 2 Oct (7d) $505 cyc · $2,164/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 30% | 5 × $155 2 Oct (7d) $730 cyc · $3,129/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:46%hist 39% | 5 × $150 2 Oct (7d) $1,490 cyc · $6,386/mo 60% survhist 68% · T:82%hist 78% | $3,947 | -$15,645 (115.9% IC) | 28.3% |
| SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock | |||||||||||
| DELL ↗ ▲ UP +3.5% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 3 | $557.09 | $570.25 | 🎯 3 × $597.50 2 Oct (7d) $1,890 cyc · $8,100/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 30% above floor +$8,176 · hole 0.5mo | 3 × $622.50 2 Oct (7d) $879 cyc · $3,767/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% above floor +$15,676 · hole 1.0mo | 3 × $607.50 2 Oct (7d) $1,425 cyc · $6,107/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 30% above floor +$11,176 · hole 0.6mo | 3 × $595 2 Oct (7d) $2,040 cyc · $8,743/mo 79% survhist 84% · T:43%hist 39% above floor +$7,426 · hole 0.5mo | 3 × $570 2 Oct (7d) $4,200 cyc · $18,000/mo 62% survhist 65% · T:78%hist 68% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 0.2mo | $1,059 | +$8,176 whole if assigned | 2.4% whole ~10 Oct on 🎯 |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $20.34 | $17.33 BE | +17.4% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 25d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 25 | $24.89 | $34.67 | 25 × $37.50 16 Oct (21d) $125 cyc · $179/mo 97% survhist 96% · T:5%hist 3% | 25 × $29 2 Oct (7d) $250 cyc · $1,071/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% | 21 × $27.50 2 Oct (7d) $630 cyc · $2,700/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 30% | 🎯 24 × $27 2 Oct (7d) $960 cyc · $4,114/mo 78% survhist 84% · T:46%hist 39% | 23 × $25.50 2 Oct (7d) $1,932 cyc · $8,280/mo 61% survhist 65% · T:82%hist 78% | $6,095 | -$17,453 (315.9% IC) | 39.3% |
| TOTAL (4) | 53 | following every 🎯 $4,615 cyc · $19,779/mo | $3,210 cyc · $9,916/mo | $1,669 cyc · $7,153/mo | $3,370 cyc · $14,443/mo | $4,990 cyc · $21,386/mo | $10,022 cyc · $42,951/mo | $13,601 | -$45,789 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$598 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$8.92/sh | +$2,676 cycle +$4,566 [+$2,155…+$3,215] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$13,144 SAFE cap gain +$16,931 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$640 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$3.58/sh | +$1,073 cycle +$2,963 [-$399…+$1,330] · 63% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$24,671 SAFE cap gain +$28,459 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$615 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.11/sh | +$334 cycle +$2,224 [-$629…+$568] · 43% credit | 74% surv 64% | +$16,283 SAFE cap gain +$20,070 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$650 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.69/sh | +$208 cycle +$2,098 [-$1,423…+$408] · 34% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$26,866 SAFE cap gain +$30,654 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$680 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$5.76/sh | -$1,728 cycle +$162 [-$3,796…-$1,620] · 5% credit | 85% surv 83% | +$34,111 SAFE cap gain +$37,898 |
| budget: banked $1,890 debit $1,728 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$162 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,576/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,743/mo) | -7% |
| vs normal income ($17,486/mo) | 46% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,662/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-3,825 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $591.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $592-603.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $603.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $597.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,890 | $10,468 | +$14,255 | +$5,010 |
| +2.5% | $612.44 (1.2σ) | $-2,591 | $10,558 | +$14,345 | +$5,010 |
| +5% | $627.38 (1.5σ) | $-7,072 | $10,647 | +$14,435 | +$5,010 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$622 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$8.50/sh | +$2,549 cycle +$3,428 [+$2,374…+$3,511] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$19,656 SAFE cap gain +$23,443 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$665 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$3.19/sh | +$956 cycle +$1,835 [+$59…+$1,678] · 76% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$31,194 SAFE cap gain +$34,981 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$640 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.67/sh | +$202 cycle +$1,081 [-$395…+$784] · 56% credit | 74% surv 64% | +$22,790 SAFE cap gain +$26,577 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$675 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.28/sh | +$84 cycle +$963 [-$958…+$782] · 47% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$33,382 SAFE cap gain +$37,169 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$690 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$2.84/sh | -$851 cycle +$28 [-$2,003…-$188] · 20% credit | 83% surv 79% | +$37,036 SAFE cap gain +$40,824 |
| budget: banked $879 debit $851 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,912/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,767/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,743/mo) | -57% |
| vs normal income ($17,486/mo) | 22% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,329/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-3,813 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $616.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $616-625.51 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $625.51 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $622.50 (1.4σ) | $879 | $17,107 | +$20,894 | +$11,499 |
| +2.5% | $638.06 (1.8σ) | $-3,790 | $17,200 | +$20,988 | +$11,499 |
| +5% | $653.62 (2.1σ) | $-8,458 | $17,294 | +$21,081 | +$11,499 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$608 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$8.76/sh | +$2,627 cycle +$4,052 [+$2,216…+$3,223] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$15,690 SAFE cap gain +$19,478 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$650 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$3.43/sh | +$1,029 cycle +$2,454 [-$217…+$1,590] · 69% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$27,222 SAFE cap gain +$31,010 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$625 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.95/sh | +$284 cycle +$1,709 [-$539…+$720] · 51% credit | 74% surv 64% | +$18,827 SAFE cap gain +$22,614 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$660 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.54/sh | +$161 cycle +$1,586 [-$1,226…+$655] · 39% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$29,414 SAFE cap gain +$33,202 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$685 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$4.55/sh | -$1,364 cycle +$61 [-$3,059…-$967] · 10% credit | 85% surv 82% | +$35,540 SAFE cap gain +$39,327 |
| budget: banked $1,425 debit $1,364 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$61 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,127/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,107/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,743/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($17,486/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,669/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-3,825 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $601.42 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $601-612.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $612.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $607.50 (1.1σ) | $1,425 | $13,063 | +$16,850 | +$7,545 |
| +2.5% | $622.69 (1.4σ) | $-3,131 | $13,154 | +$16,942 | +$7,545 |
| +5% | $637.88 (1.7σ) | $-7,688 | $13,245 | +$17,033 | +$7,545 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$595 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$8.96/sh | +$2,687 cycle +$4,727 [+$2,199…+$3,063] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$12,540 SAFE cap gain +$16,328 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$638 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$3.61/sh | +$1,083 cycle +$3,123 [-$404…+$1,106] · 63% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$24,066 SAFE cap gain +$27,854 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$613 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.15/sh | +$346 cycle +$2,386 [-$633…+$385] · 42% credit | 74% surv 64% | +$15,680 SAFE cap gain +$19,467 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$648 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.73/sh | +$219 cycle +$2,259 [-$1,443…+$182] · 29% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$26,262 SAFE cap gain +$30,050 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$668 | 16 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$6.62/sh | -$1,985 cycle +$55 [-$3,944…-$2,128] · 1% credit | 86% surv 83% | +$30,178 SAFE cap gain +$33,966 |
| budget: banked $2,040 debit $1,985 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,308/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,743/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,743/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($17,486/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,305/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-3,832 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $589.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $589-601.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $601.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $595.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,040 | $9,853 | +$13,640 | +$4,410 |
| +2.5% | $609.88 (1.1σ) | $-2,422 | $9,942 | +$13,730 | +$4,410 |
| +5% | $624.75 (1.5σ) | $-6,885 | $10,031 | +$13,819 | +$4,410 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$570 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$9.31/sh | +$2,793 cycle +$6,993 [+$2,075…+$2,603] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$7,156 SAFE cap gain +$10,944 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$608 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$5.42/sh | +$1,627 cycle +$5,827 [-$183…+$952] · 69% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$17,590 SAFE cap gain +$21,378 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$623 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$1.06/sh | +$317 cycle +$4,517 [-$1,787…-$443] · 16% credit | 80% surv 75% | +$20,870 SAFE cap gain +$24,658 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$590 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.24/sh | +$72 cycle +$4,272 [-$1,294…-$431] · 14% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$10,681 SAFE cap gain +$14,468 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$663 | 16 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$8.94/sh | -$2,682 cycle +$1,518 [-$5,390…-$3,635] | 90% surv 89% | +$30,112 SAFE cap gain +$33,899 |
| budget: banked $4,200 debit $2,682 (64% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,518 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,826/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $18,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,743/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($17,486/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $17,562/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-3,862 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $564.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $564-584.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $584.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $570.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,200 | $4,363 | +$8,150 | -$930 |
| +2.5% | $584.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-75 | $4,448 | +$8,236 | -$930 |
| +5% | $598.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-4,350 | $4,534 | +$8,321 | -$930 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$96 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.17/sh | +$334 cycle +$1,334 [-$229…+$1,138] · 64% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$1,997 SAFE cap gain +$21,797 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$96 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$153 cycle +$1,153 [-$428…+$959] · 55% credit | 65% surv 53% | +$2,118 SAFE cap gain +$21,918 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$96 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$153 cycle +$1,153 [-$428…+$959] · 55% credit | 65% surv 53% | +$2,118 SAFE cap gain +$21,918 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.12/sh | -$249 cycle +$751 [-$893…+$520] · 40% credit | 66% surv 55% | +$2,724 SAFE cap gain +$22,524 |
| budget: banked $1,000 debit $249 (25% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$751 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $11,050/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,429/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,143/mo) | -72% |
| vs normal income ($10,286/mo) | 14% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,429/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-20,150 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 11d left | 3-10d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $95.04 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $95-96.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $96.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $96.00 (1.1σ) | $1,000 | $1,662 | +$21,462 | +$5,200 |
| +2.5% | $98.40 (1.4σ) | $-3,800 | $1,701 | +$21,501 | +$5,200 |
| +5% | $100.80 (1.7σ) | $-8,600 | $1,739 | +$21,539 | +$5,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$96 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.42/sh | +$847 cycle +$1,147 [-$140…+$1,785] · 71% credit | 70% surv 61% | +$1,103 SAFE cap gain +$20,903 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$93 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.08/sh | +$158 cycle +$458 [-$644…+$992] · 52% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$4,625 NOT cap gain +$15,175 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$96 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.10/sh | +$192 cycle +$492 [-$890…+$1,117] · 51% credit | 71% surv 63% | +$1,457 SAFE cap gain +$21,257 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$93 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.05/sh | +$93 cycle +$393 [-$745…+$929] · 50% credit | 64% surv 52% | -$4,992 NOT cap gain +$14,808 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,286/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,143/mo) | -75% |
| vs normal income ($10,286/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,286/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,202 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 9.2% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 5.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-20,150 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $92.07 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $92-93.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $93.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $93.00 (1.4σ) | $300 | $-5,086 | +$14,714 | -$500 |
| +2.5% | $95.32 (1.8σ) | $-4,350 | $-5,048 | +$14,752 | -$1,500 |
| +5% | $97.65 (2.3σ) | $-9,000 | $-5,011 | +$14,789 | -$1,500 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$90 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.71/sh | +$1,274 cycle +$2,084 [-$38…+$1,170] · 74% credit | 67% surv 57% | -$8,967 NOT cap gain +$10,833 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$89 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.07/sh | +$118 cycle +$928 [-$998…-$8] · 25% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$12,139 NOT cap gain +$7,661 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$89 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.04/sh | +$75 cycle +$885 [-$1,074…-$59] · 24% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$12,485 NOT cap gain +$7,315 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$92 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.00/sh | +$8 cycle +$818 [-$1,462…-$215] · 22% credit | 71% surv 64% | -$6,201 NOT cap gain +$13,599 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.35/sh | -$624 cycle +$186 [-$2,179…-$880] · 12% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$3,840 NOT cap gain +$15,960 |
| budget: banked $810 debit $624 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$186 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $4,116/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,471/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,143/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($10,286/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,643/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,342 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 20.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 11.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-18,900 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $88.11 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $88-90.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $90.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $89.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $810 | $-12,560 | +$7,240 | +$90 |
| +2.5% | $91.22 (1.0σ) | $-3,195 | $-12,079 | +$7,721 | -$3,915 |
| +5% | $93.45 (1.5σ) | $-7,200 | $-11,598 | +$8,202 | -$7,920 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$89 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.68/sh | +$1,226 cycle +$2,486 [-$325…+$866] · 63% credit | 67% surv 57% | -$10,581 NOT cap gain +$9,219 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$91 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.28/sh | +$503 cycle +$1,763 [-$1,123…+$102] · 28% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$8,280 NOT cap gain +$11,520 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$88 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$112 cycle +$1,372 [-$1,207…-$202] · 18% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$13,711 NOT cap gain +$6,089 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$88 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.04/sh | +$73 cycle +$1,333 [-$1,286…-$254] · 18% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$14,053 NOT cap gain +$5,747 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.66/sh | -$1,194 cycle +$66 [-$3,164…-$1,770] · 5% credit | 77% surv 73% | -$3,960 NOT cap gain +$15,840 |
| budget: banked $1,260 debit $1,194 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$66 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $3,287/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,143/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($10,286/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,571/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,692 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 22.3% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 12.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-18,540 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $87.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $87-89.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $89.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $88.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,260 | $-14,126 | +$5,674 | +$540 |
| +2.5% | $90.20 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,700 | $-13,650 | +$6,150 | -$3,420 |
| +5% | $92.40 (1.3σ) | $-6,660 | $-13,175 | +$6,625 | -$7,380 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (1.5σ) | $-8,460 | $-12,959 | +$6,841 | -$9,180 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$88 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$1.11/sh | +$2,220 cycle +$4,620 [+$540…+$1,683] · 88% credit | 67% surv 55% | -$10,543 NOT cap gain +$9,257 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$90 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.27/sh | +$532 cycle +$2,932 [-$1,429…-$133] · 22% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$8,199 NOT cap gain +$11,601 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$88 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$121 cycle +$2,521 [-$1,462…-$420] · 15% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$13,650 NOT cap gain +$6,150 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$88 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.04/sh | +$79 cycle +$2,479 [-$1,556…-$474] · 14% credit | 64% surv 51% | -$13,994 NOT cap gain +$5,806 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 16 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$1.11/sh | -$2,228 cycle +$172 [-$4,560…-$3,054] | 81% surv 78% | -$3,903 NOT cap gain +$15,897 |
| budget: banked $2,400 debit $2,228 (93% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$172 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,283/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,286/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,143/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($10,286/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,286/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,102 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 24.8% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 14.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-20,550 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $86.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $87-89.08 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $89.08 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $87.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,400 | $-14,074 | +$5,726 | +$1,600 |
| +2.5% | $89.69 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,975 | $-14,039 | +$5,761 | -$2,775 |
| +5% | $91.88 (1.2σ) | $-6,350 | $-14,004 | +$5,796 | -$7,150 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (1.5σ) | $-9,400 | $-13,979 | +$5,821 | -$10,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$38 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$552 cycle +$677 [+$917…+$2,298] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$6,742 SAFE cap gain +$27,580 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$552 cycle +$677 [+$917…+$2,298] · 97% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$6,742 SAFE cap gain +$27,580 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.20/sh | +$488 cycle +$613 [+$857…+$2,273] · 96% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$6,445 SAFE cap gain +$27,283 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$39 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.17/sh | -$426 cycle -$301 [-$137…+$1,167] · 65% credit | 71% surv 60% | +$7,879 SAFE cap gain +$28,716 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $179/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,045/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($8,089/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $179/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-21,013 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 11d left | 3-10d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-37.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $37.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (2.5σ) | $125 | $5,958 | +$26,795 | +$25 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (2.7σ) | $-2,219 | $5,597 | +$26,434 | -$2,319 |
| +5% | $39.38 (2.9σ) | $-4,562 | $5,236 | +$26,073 | -$4,662 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.0σ) | $-5,400 | $5,107 | +$25,944 | -$5,500 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$29 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.54/sh | +$1,345 cycle +$1,595 [+$1,151…+$1,918] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$10,549 NOT cap gain +$10,288 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$32 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.27/sh | +$667 cycle +$917 [+$220…+$1,226] · 81% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$4,651 NOT cap gain +$16,187 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.05/sh | +$136 cycle +$386 [-$253…+$552] · 59% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$9,411 NOT cap gain +$11,426 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$33 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.03/sh | +$82 cycle +$332 [-$451…+$618] · 54% credit | 79% surv 75% | -$3,120 NOT cap gain +$17,717 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,071/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,045/mo) | -74% |
| vs normal income ($8,089/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,071/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,930 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 252.1% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 25.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-21,175 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $28.71 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.00 (1.4σ) | $250 | $-11,895 | +$8,943 | +$150 |
| +2.5% | $29.72 (1.7σ) | $-1,562 | $-12,174 | +$8,664 | -$1,662 |
| +5% | $30.45 (1.9σ) | $-3,375 | $-12,453 | +$8,384 | -$3,475 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.1σ) | $-26,525 | $-16,018 | +$4,819 | -$26,625 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (21 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.50/sh | +$1,042 cycle +$1,672 [+$704…+$1,288] · 98% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$13,630 NOT cap gain +$7,208 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$30 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.50/sh | +$1,040 cycle +$1,670 [+$505…+$1,318] · 92% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$9,169 NOT cap gain +$11,669 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$31 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.18/sh | +$373 cycle +$1,003 [-$256…+$597] · 59% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$7,721 NOT cap gain +$13,117 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$41 cycle +$671 [-$442…+$188] · 35% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$12,283 NOT cap gain +$8,555 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.22/sh | -$457 cycle +$173 [-$1,207…-$306] · 14% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$4,320 NOT cap gain +$16,517 |
| budget: banked $630 debit $457 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$173 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $2,295/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,045/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($8,089/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,723/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,431 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 261.2% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 26.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (21 ct) | $-17,630 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.86 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.86 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $630 | $-14,671 | +$6,166 | +$546 |
| +2.5% | $28.19 (1.1σ) | $-814 | $-14,661 | +$6,176 | -$898 |
| +5% | $28.88 (1.4σ) | $-2,258 | $-14,651 | +$6,187 | -$2,342 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.1σ) | $-25,011 | $-14,488 | +$6,349 | -$25,095 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (24 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$27 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.48/sh | +$1,157 cycle +$2,117 [+$738…+$1,254] · 97% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$14,253 NOT cap gain +$6,584 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$29 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.46/sh | +$1,109 cycle +$2,069 [+$434…+$1,185] · 90% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$9,840 NOT cap gain +$10,998 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.15/sh | +$359 cycle +$1,319 [-$448…+$384] · 46% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$8,475 NOT cap gain +$12,363 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$28 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$20 cycle +$980 [-$610…+$29] · 27% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$13,043 NOT cap gain +$7,794 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$32 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.24/sh | -$573 cycle +$387 [-$1,535…-$598] · 10% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$5,176 NOT cap gain +$15,662 |
| budget: banked $960 debit $573 (60% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$387 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $2,462/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,114/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,045/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($8,089/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,120/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,453 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 315.9% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 31.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (24 ct) | $-20,208 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $26.73 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $960 | $-15,411 | +$5,427 | +$864 |
| +2.5% | $27.67 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-660 | $-15,603 | +$5,234 | -$756 |
| +5% | $28.35 (1.2σ) | $-2,280 | $-15,796 | +$5,042 | -$2,376 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.1σ) | $-29,544 | $-19,033 | +$1,804 | -$29,640 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (23 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.44/sh | +$1,017 cycle +$2,949 [+$459…+$792] · 95% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$16,590 NOT cap gain +$4,247 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$28 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.37/sh | +$841 cycle +$2,773 [-$57…+$491] · 72% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$12,304 NOT cap gain +$8,534 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$394 cycle +$2,326 [-$289…+$128] · 41% credit | 70% surv 59% | -$15,923 NOT cap gain +$4,914 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$159 cycle +$2,091 [-$893…-$247] · 14% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$10,871 NOT cap gain +$9,967 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$34 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.70/sh | -$1,620 cycle +$312 [-$3,264…-$2,232] | 92% surv 91% | -$2,075 NOT cap gain +$18,762 |
| budget: banked $1,932 debit $1,620 (84% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$312 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $748/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,280/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,045/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($8,089/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,291/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,164 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 346.9% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 34.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (23 ct) | $-19,401 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-26.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,932 | $-17,607 | +$3,230 | +$1,840 |
| +2.5% | $26.14 (≤1σ, normal week) | $466 | $-17,725 | +$3,112 | +$374 |
| +5% | $26.78 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,001 | $-17,843 | +$2,994 | -$1,093 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.1σ) | $-30,751 | $-20,236 | +$601 | -$30,843 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $209/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,839/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($5,679/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $209/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-22,282 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 15d left | 3-14d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $188.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $188-190.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $190.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $190.00 (2.3σ) | $195 | $-1,297 | +$20,978 | +$2,625 |
| +2.5% | $194.75 (2.5σ) | $-2,180 | $-1,326 | +$20,949 | +$2,625 |
| +5% | $199.50 (2.8σ) | $-4,555 | $-1,354 | +$20,921 | +$2,625 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$162 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.54/sh | +$768 cycle +$1,008 [+$687…+$1,122] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$14,070 NOT cap gain +$8,205 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$165 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.64/sh | +$321 cycle +$561 [+$141…+$605] · 86% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$13,494 NOT cap gain +$8,781 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$172 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.40/sh | +$202 cycle +$442 [-$162…+$483] · 63% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$9,908 NOT cap gain +$12,367 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$175 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.22/sh | -$112 cycle +$128 [-$527…+$152] · 37% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$8,987 NOT cap gain +$13,288 |
| budget: banked $240 debit $112 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$128 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,796/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,029/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,839/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($5,679/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,029/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,410 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 99.3% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 30.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-22,280 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $160.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $161-162.99 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $162.99 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $162.50 (1.6σ) | $240 | $-14,837 | +$7,438 | +$170 |
| +2.5% | $166.56 (2.0σ) | $-1,791 | $-14,862 | +$7,413 | -$1,861 |
| +5% | $170.62 (2.5σ) | $-3,822 | $-14,886 | +$7,389 | -$3,892 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.1σ) | $-11,510 | $-14,978 | +$7,297 | -$11,080 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$158 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.64/sh | +$818 cycle +$1,323 [+$680…+$997] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$16,225 NOT cap gain +$6,050 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$160 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.74/sh | +$371 cycle +$876 [+$165…+$509] · 91% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$15,648 NOT cap gain +$6,627 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$165 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$1.24/sh | +$622 cycle +$1,127 [+$249…+$772] · 89% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$12,928 NOT cap gain +$9,347 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$167 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.51/sh | +$255 cycle +$760 [-$196…+$376] · 60% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$12,060 NOT cap gain +$10,215 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$172 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.64/sh | -$319 cycle +$186 [-$884…-$237] · 12% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$10,164 NOT cap gain +$12,111 |
| budget: banked $505 debit $319 (63% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$186 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,476/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,164/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,839/mo) | -24% |
| vs normal income ($5,679/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,164/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,645 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 115.9% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 36.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-22,280 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $155.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $156-158.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $158.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $157.50 (1.0σ) | $505 | $-17,042 | +$5,233 | +$435 |
| +2.5% | $161.44 (1.5σ) | $-1,464 | $-17,066 | +$5,209 | -$1,534 |
| +5% | $165.38 (1.9σ) | $-3,432 | $-17,090 | +$5,185 | -$3,503 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.1σ) | $-13,745 | $-17,213 | +$5,062 | -$13,315 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$155 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.68/sh | +$841 cycle +$1,571 [+$669…+$967] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$17,211 NOT cap gain +$5,064 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$157 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.79/sh | +$395 cycle +$1,125 [+$151…+$446] · 90% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$16,635 NOT cap gain +$5,640 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$162 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$1.29/sh | +$646 cycle +$1,376 [+$230…+$699] · 88% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$13,914 NOT cap gain +$8,361 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$165 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.56/sh | +$280 cycle +$1,010 [-$201…+$307] · 55% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$13,045 NOT cap gain +$9,230 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$175 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$1.37/sh | -$685 cycle +$45 [-$1,392…-$724] · 1% credit | 88% surv 86% | -$9,070 NOT cap gain +$13,205 |
| budget: banked $730 debit $685 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$45 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $989/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,129/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,839/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($5,679/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,129/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,670 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 123.5% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 38.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-22,280 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $153.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $153-156.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $156.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $155.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $730 | $-18,052 | +$4,223 | +$660 |
| +2.5% | $158.88 (1.2σ) | $-1,208 | $-18,076 | +$4,199 | -$1,278 |
| +5% | $162.75 (1.6σ) | $-3,145 | $-18,099 | +$4,176 | -$3,215 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.1σ) | $-14,770 | $-18,238 | +$4,037 | -$14,340 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$150 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.77/sh | +$884 cycle +$2,374 [+$629…+$793] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$18,878 NOT cap gain +$3,397 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$152 | 9 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.88/sh | +$439 cycle +$1,929 [+$97…+$304] · 88% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$18,301 NOT cap gain +$3,974 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$157 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$1.38/sh | +$690 cycle +$2,180 [+$105…+$468] · 83% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$15,580 NOT cap gain +$6,695 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$162 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.02/sh | +$11 cycle +$1,501 [-$733…-$267] · 11% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$13,789 NOT cap gain +$8,486 |
| SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$175 | 23 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$1.80/sh | -$900 cycle +$590 [-$1,930…-$1,269] | 92% surv 91% | -$8,525 NOT cap gain +$13,750 |
| budget: banked $1,490 debit $900 (60% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$590 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $661/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,386/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,839/mo) | +125% |
| vs normal income ($5,679/mo) | 112% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,386/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,410 |
| … as % of IC ($13,500) | 136.4% |
| … as % of ML ($43,500) | 42.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-22,292 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $148.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $148-153.01 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $153.01 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $150.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,490 | $-19,762 | +$2,513 | +$1,420 |
| +2.5% | $153.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-385 | $-19,785 | +$2,490 | -$455 |
| +5% | $157.50 (1.0σ) | $-2,260 | $-19,807 | +$2,468 | -$2,330 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $186.00 (4.1σ) | $-16,510 | $-19,978 | +$2,297 | -$16,080 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $340C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) | $341.09 | $340.77 | $2.07 | $0.98 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $1.09/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks GOOG 1:1); only $0.98 is live theta (~$490). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This strike caps $44.42/sh BELOW the CC-SS $384.42: assignment locks about $22,211 before premium, so the roll is about protecting recovery, not just income. ▸ Gate on price: hold while GOOG is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $345, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $340C at ~$2.11 ($1,053), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $342.5C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) | $341.09 | $343.16 | $0.92 | $0.92 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.41 OTM = 0.4% (0.2x a typical daily move). The $0.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$914 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $0.34/sh BELOW the $342.84 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $507 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $343.16 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 15x $342.5C at ~$0.94 ($1,418), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10x $126C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) | $120.24 | $126.52 | $0.07 | $0.07 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.76 OTM = 4.8% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $0.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$473 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $126.52 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5x $96C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) | $89.70 | $96.56 | $0.06 | $0.06 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.30 OTM = 7.0% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $0.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$255 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $96.56 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $48C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) | $44.69 | $48.23 | $0.03 | $0.03 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.31 OTM = 7.4% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $0.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$366 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $47.76 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $48C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) | $44.69 | $48.23 | $0.03 | $0.03 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.31 OTM = 7.4% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $0.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$366 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $47.76 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $342.5C 28 Sep 2026 (3d) | $335.44 | $343.23 | $0.30 | $0.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.06 OTM = 2.1% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$340 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $343.23 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1x $1150C 28 Sep 2026 (3d) | $1,098.66 | $1,154.16 | $2.50 | $2.50 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 51.34 OTM = 4.7% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $2.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$411 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,154.16 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $230C 30 Sep 2026 (5d) | $224.85 | $230.77 | $1.15 | $1.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.15 OTM = 2.3% (1.3x a typical daily move). The $1.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$723 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $230.77 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $782C 2 Oct 2026 (7d) | $769.72 | $783.17 | $0.94 | $0.94 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.28 OTM = 1.6% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $0.94 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,348 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $783.17 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $270C 2 Oct 2026 (7d) | $248.31 | $270.27 | $0.21 | $0.21 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 21.69 OTM = 8.7% (4.1x a typical daily move). The $0.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$109 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $270.27 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $100C 2 Oct 2026 (7d) | $89.04 | $100.71 | $0.70 | $0.70 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.96 OTM = 12.3% (2.6x a typical daily move). The $0.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$328 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.71 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $370C 2 Oct 2026 (7d) | $313.92 | $371.70 | $0.55 | $0.55 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 56.08 OTM = 17.9% (4.4x a typical daily move). The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$165 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $371.70 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $35C 2 Oct 2026 (7d) | $28.82 | $35.29 | $0.12 | $0.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.18 OTM = 21.4% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$360 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $35.29 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $85C 9 Oct 2026 (14d) | $74.47 | $85.75 | $1.13 | $1.13 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.53 OTM = 14.1% (3.1x a typical daily move). The $1.13 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$422 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $85.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (21d) | $107.56 | $112.23 | $1.73 | $1.73 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.44 OTM = 3.2% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $1.73 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (21d) | $341.09 | $359.26 | $4.83 | $4.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.91 OTM = 4.1% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $4.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $30C 16 Oct 2026 (21d) | $24.98 | $30.66 | $0.64 | $0.64 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.02 OTM = 20.1% (3.7x a typical daily move). The $0.64 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,103 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $30.66 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (21d) | $44.69 | $55.88 | $0.71 | $0.71 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.31 OTM = 23.1% (4.6x a typical daily move). The $0.71 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (21d) | $44.69 | $55.88 | $0.71 | $0.71 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.31 OTM = 23.1% (4.6x a typical daily move). The $0.71 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (28d) | $1,098.66 | $1,284.32 | $29.07 | $29.07 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 151.34 OTM = 13.8% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $29.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,854 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,284.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (28d) | $125.93 | $162.09 | $2.24 | $2.24 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 34.07 OTM = 27.1% (5.4x a typical daily move). The $2.24 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,019 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $162.09 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (35d) | $196.40 | $245.47 | $5.65 | $5.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 43.60 OTM = 22.2% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $5.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,548 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $245.47 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (56d) | $159.46 | $180.96 | $13.85 | $13.85 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.54 OTM = 6.6% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $13.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (56d) | $159.46 | $180.95 | $13.85 | $13.85 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.54 OTM = 6.6% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $13.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (56d) | $199.69 | $224.53 | $9.90 | $9.90 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 20.31 OTM = 10.2% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $9.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $2200C 20 Nov 2026 (56d) | $1,803.68 | $2,333.48 | $97.15 | $97.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 396.32 OTM = 22.0% (4.5x a typical daily move). The $97.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,343 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $2,333.48 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (56d) | $1,098.66 | $1,376.43 | $36.27 | $36.27 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 251.34 OTM = 22.9% (5.7x a typical daily move). The $36.27 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,188 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,376.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $430C 18 Dec 2026 (84d) | $392.19 | $435.38 | $5.58 | $5.58 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 37.81 OTM = 9.6% (6.9x a typical daily move). The $5.58 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,326 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $435.38 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (84d) | $196.40 | $278.82 | $7.20 | $7.20 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 73.60 OTM = 37.5% (8.6x a typical daily move). The $7.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,020 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $278.82 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $27.59 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $27.59 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 24.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $27.59 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 58.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $13.87 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.1% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $32.86 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 41.5% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $47.55 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.6% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $12.55 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 25.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $12.55 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 69.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $334.64 | 5x $342C 28 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $270C 2 Oct 2026 (7d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $370C 2 Oct 2026 (7d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (84d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (35d) |
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5 | $87.00 | 5x $96C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $100C 2 Oct 2026 (7d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $430C 18 Dec 2026 (84d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $342C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (21d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $340C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $35C 2 Oct 2026 (7d) |
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10 | $114.95 | 10x $126C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (21d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (28d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (21d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (21d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $48C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $48C 25 Sep 2026 (0d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (56d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (56d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1 | $792.36 | 1x $1150C 28 Sep 2026 (3d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (56d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (28d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $230C 30 Sep 2026 (5d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (56d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $85C 9 Oct 2026 (14d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $2200C 20 Nov 2026 (56d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $782C 2 Oct 2026 (7d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 198 | 56% | 61% | +5pp |
| 60-70% | 378 | 64% | 62% | -2pp |
| 70-80% | 505 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 662 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 1085 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2828 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 11 graded weeks; last week 0.65x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 167 real buyback(s) recorded · 84 roll(s), net +$0.58/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 84 real rolls: buyback $6.69/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.58/sh (58 of 84 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.