FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

42 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 3 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 2 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 3 uncapped above water | 26 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $13,450/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $10,566/mo · plus $17,600/mo CC-safe on 2 shallow row(s) ⓘ
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $801,692 locked in if all 11 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	20	$42.09	$58.04	20 × $60 16 Oct (17d) $300 cyc · $529/mo 97% survhist 96% · T:6%hist 3%	20 × $47 2 Oct (3d) $380 cyc · $3,800/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	17 × $47 2 Oct (3d) $323 cyc · $3,230/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	🎯 20 × $46.50 2 Oct (3d) $500 cyc · $5,000/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:22%hist 25%	20 × $45 2 Oct (3d) $960 cyc · $9,600/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 33%	$5,471	-$22,588 (376.5% IC)	37.9%
IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	20	$42.09	$66.49	20 × $65 9 Oct (10d) $40 cyc · $120/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:2%hist 3%	20 × $47 2 Oct (3d) $380 cyc · $3,800/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	17 × $47 2 Oct (3d) $323 cyc · $3,230/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%	🎯 20 × $46.50 2 Oct (3d) $500 cyc · $5,000/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:22%hist 25%	20 × $45 2 Oct (3d) $960 cyc · $9,600/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 33%	$4,076	-$39,484 (288.2% IC)	58.0%
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
CRCL ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$85.83	$89.71	🎯 5 × $91.50 2 Oct (3d) $455 cyc · $4,550/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 41% above floor +$896 · hole 0.4mo	5 × $96 2 Oct (3d) $175 cyc · $1,750/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14% above floor +$3,146 · hole 1.1mo	5 × $97 2 Oct (3d) $155 cyc · $1,550/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 14% above floor +$3,646 · hole 1.3mo	5 × $95 2 Oct (3d) $235 cyc · $2,350/mo 90% survhist 86% · T:21%hist 25% above floor +$2,646 · hole 0.8mo	5 × $92 2 Oct (3d) $450 cyc · $4,500/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 33% above floor +$1,146 · hole 0.4mo	$280	+$896 whole if assigned	4.5% whole ~12 Oct on 🎯
DELL ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	3	$541.90	$570.46	🎯 3 × $572.50 2 Oct (3d) $1,305 cyc · $13,050/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:36%hist 33% above floor +$611 · hole 0.7mo	3 × $587.50 2 Oct (3d) $636 cyc · $6,360/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14% above floor +$5,111 · hole 1.3mo	3 × $590 2 Oct (3d) $561 cyc · $5,610/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14% above floor +$5,861 · hole 1.5mo	3 × $582.50 2 Oct (3d) $819 cyc · $8,190/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:24%hist 25% above floor +$3,611 · hole 1.0mo	3 × $567.50 2 Oct (3d) $1,635 cyc · $16,350/mo 78% survhist 82% · T:44%hist 41% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 0.5mo	$1,059	+$611 whole if assigned	5.3% whole ~19 Oct on 🎯
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
ETHA Main:1299	50	$20.58	$17.33 BE	+18.8% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
HOOD Joint:1782	10	$118.70	$114.95 BE	+3.3% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
MU-LC670 Joint:1782	1	$1,061.58	$792.36 BE	+34.0% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 21d Main:1299 · This Fri	25	$23.64	$35.02	25 × $35 16 Oct (17d) $125 cyc · $221/mo 98% survhist 96% · T:4%hist 3%	25 × $26.50 2 Oct (3d) $150 cyc · $1,500/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14%	10 × $25.50 2 Oct (3d) $230 cyc · $2,300/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 33%	🎯 15 × $25.50 2 Oct (3d) $345 cyc · $3,450/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 33%	21 × $25 2 Oct (3d) $693 cyc · $6,930/mo 75% survhist 82% · T:50%hist 46%	$6,095	-$13,933 (252.2% IC)	48.1%
TOTAL (5)	73	following every 🎯 $3,105 cyc · $31,050/mo		$2,225 cyc · $18,470/mo	$1,721 cyc · $17,210/mo	$1,592 cyc · $15,920/mo	$2,399 cyc · $23,990/mo	$4,698 cyc · $46,980/mo	$16,981	-$76,005

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$92	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$1.58/sh	+$788 cycle +$1,243 [+$563…+$893] · 96% credit	67% surv 52%	+$2,249 SAFE cap gain +$4,249
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$101	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.77/sh	+$385 cycle +$840 [-$197…+$403] · 64% credit	79% surv 74%	+$6,705 SAFE cap gain +$8,705
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$96	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$58 cycle +$513 [-$392…+$78] · 33% credit	76% surv 68%	+$3,728 SAFE cap gain +$5,728
Max even-money escape in the band	~$104	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$21 cycle +$476 [-$664…+$8] · 26% credit	82% surv 79%	+$7,931 SAFE cap gain +$9,931
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$110	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.81/sh	-$403 cycle +$52 [-$1,184…-$447]	89% surv 88%	+$10,687 SAFE cap gain +$12,687
budget: banked $455 debit $403 (89% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$52 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $974/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $90.58	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $91-92.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $92.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$91.50 (1.0σ)	$455	$1,460	+$3,460	+$955
+2.5%	$93.79 (1.4σ)	$-689	$1,529	+$3,529	+$955
+5%	$96.08 (1.8σ)	$-1,833	$1,597	+$3,597	+$955

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$1.53/sh	+$766 cycle +$941 [+$593…+$919] · 94% credit	67% surv 52%	+$4,331 SAFE cap gain +$6,331
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$105	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.75/sh	+$374 cycle +$549 [-$141…+$463] · 67% credit	79% surv 74%	+$8,799 SAFE cap gain +$10,799
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.07/sh	+$35 cycle +$210 [-$377…+$108] · 42% credit	76% surv 68%	+$5,810 SAFE cap gain +$7,810
Max even-money escape in the band	~$108	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.01/sh	+$5 cycle +$180 [-$609…+$68] · 33% credit	82% surv 79%	+$10,020 SAFE cap gain +$12,020

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $95-96.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $96.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$96.00 (1.8σ)	$175	$3,565	+$5,565	+$2,925
+2.5%	$98.40 (2.3σ)	$-1,025	$3,637	+$5,637	+$2,925
+5%	$100.80 (2.7σ)	$-2,225	$3,709	+$5,709	+$2,925

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$97	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$1.52/sh	+$761 cycle +$916 [+$623…+$954] · 97% credit	67% surv 52%	+$4,836 SAFE cap gain +$6,836
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$107	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.41/sh	+$203 cycle +$358 [-$241…+$358] · 61% credit	80% surv 75%	+$9,668 SAFE cap gain +$11,668
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$101	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.06/sh	+$29 cycle +$184 [-$286…+$162] · 45% credit	76% surv 68%	+$6,314 SAFE cap gain +$8,314
Max even-money escape in the band	~$109	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.00/sh	+$0 cycle +$155 [-$490…+$149] · 38% credit	82% surv 78%	+$10,526 SAFE cap gain +$12,526

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.03	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $96-97.36	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $97.36	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$97.00 (2.0σ)	$155	$4,075	+$6,075	+$3,405
+2.5%	$99.42 (2.5σ)	$-1,057	$4,148	+$6,148	+$3,405
+5%	$101.85 (2.9σ)	$-2,270	$4,221	+$6,221	+$3,405

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$1.54/sh	+$772 cycle +$1,007 [+$591…+$923] · 95% credit	67% surv 52%	+$3,867 SAFE cap gain +$5,867
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$104	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.75/sh	+$377 cycle +$612 [-$124…+$476] · 69% credit	79% surv 74%	+$8,332 SAFE cap gain +$10,332
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$99	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$41 cycle +$276 [-$371…+$126] · 44% credit	76% surv 68%	+$5,346 SAFE cap gain +$7,346
Max even-money escape in the band	~$107	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.02/sh	+$9 cycle +$244 [-$595…+$88] · 37% credit	82% surv 79%	+$9,554 SAFE cap gain +$11,554
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$109	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.35/sh	-$177 cycle +$58 [-$835…-$105] · 12% credit	84% surv 81%	+$10,428 SAFE cap gain +$12,428
budget: banked $235 debit $177 (76% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,340/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $94.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $94-95.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $95.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$95.00 (1.7σ)	$235	$3,095	+$5,095	+$2,485
+2.5%	$97.37 (2.1σ)	$-952	$3,166	+$5,166	+$2,485
+5%	$99.75 (2.5σ)	$-2,140	$3,238	+$5,238	+$2,485

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$92	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$1.57/sh	+$786 cycle +$1,236 [+$549…+$909] · 96% credit	67% surv 52%	+$2,506 SAFE cap gain +$4,506
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$101	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.77/sh	+$384 cycle +$834 [-$178…+$430] · 63% credit	79% surv 74%	+$6,964 SAFE cap gain +$8,964
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$96	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$56 cycle +$506 [-$388…+$101] · 35% credit	76% surv 68%	+$3,986 SAFE cap gain +$5,986
Max even-money escape in the band	~$104	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$20 cycle +$470 [-$642…+$44] · 28% credit	82% surv 79%	+$8,190 SAFE cap gain +$10,190
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$110	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.81/sh	-$406 cycle +$44 [-$1,154…-$407]	89% surv 88%	+$10,945 SAFE cap gain +$12,945
budget: banked $450 debit $406 (90% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$44 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $979/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $91.08	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $91-92.94	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $92.94	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$92.00 (1.1σ)	$450	$1,720	+$3,720	+$1,200
+2.5%	$94.30 (1.5σ)	$-700	$1,789	+$3,789	+$1,200
+5%	$96.60 (1.9σ)	$-1,850	$1,858	+$3,858	+$1,200

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$572	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$9.84/sh	+$2,951 cycle +$4,256 [+$2,258…+$3,276] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	+$5,122 SAFE cap gain +$13,620
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$608	16 Oct 2026	16d left	+$3.17/sh	+$950 cycle +$2,255 [-$823…+$997] · 60% credit	78% surv 71%	+$14,015 SAFE cap gain +$22,512
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$596	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.30/sh	+$91 cycle +$1,396 [-$1,496…+$90] · 28% credit	77% surv 69%	+$9,331 SAFE cap gain +$17,828
Max even-money escape in the band	~$636	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$44 cycle +$1,349 [-$2,356…-$46] · 23% credit	82% surv 79%	+$21,524 SAFE cap gain +$30,021
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$661	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$4.09/sh	-$1,226 cycle +$79 [-$4,003…-$1,439] · 0% credit	87% surv 86%	+$27,904 SAFE cap gain +$36,402
budget: banked $1,305 debit $1,226 (94% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$79 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,047/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $566.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $567-577.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $577.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$572.50 (1.0σ)	$1,305	$2,171	+$10,669	+$105
+2.5%	$586.81 (1.5σ)	$-2,989	$2,257	+$10,754	+$105
+5%	$601.12 (2.0σ)	$-7,282	$2,343	+$10,840	+$105

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$588	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$9.67/sh	+$2,902 cycle +$3,538 [+$2,479…+$3,359] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%	+$8,994 SAFE cap gain +$17,491
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$623	16 Oct 2026	16d left	+$3.01/sh	+$904 cycle +$1,540 [-$275…+$1,305] · 69% credit	78% surv 71%	+$17,890 SAFE cap gain +$26,387
Max even-money escape in the band	~$646	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$2.30/sh	+$691 cycle +$1,327 [-$739…+$1,093] · 56% credit	81% surv 77%	+$24,562 SAFE cap gain +$33,060
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$611	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$36 cycle +$672 [-$1,041…+$389] · 43% credit	77% surv 69%	+$13,197 SAFE cap gain +$21,695
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$661	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$1.90/sh	-$570 cycle +$66 [-$2,297…-$194] · 14% credit	84% surv 82%	+$27,891 SAFE cap gain +$36,388
budget: banked $636 debit $570 (90% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$66 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,065/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $581.62	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $582-589.71	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $589.71	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$587.50 (1.5σ)	$636	$6,092	+$14,590	+$3,936
+2.5%	$602.19 (2.0σ)	$-3,770	$6,180	+$14,678	+$3,936
+5%	$616.88 (2.5σ)	$-8,176	$6,268	+$14,766	+$3,936

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$590	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$9.64/sh	+$2,893 cycle +$3,454 [+$2,398…+$3,351] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	+$9,675 SAFE cap gain +$18,173
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$626	16 Oct 2026	16d left	+$2.99/sh	+$896 cycle +$1,457 [-$612…+$1,220] · 65% credit	78% surv 71%	+$18,572 SAFE cap gain +$27,069
Max even-money escape in the band	~$648	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$2.28/sh	+$684 cycle +$1,245 [-$1,161…+$977] · 55% credit	81% surv 77%	+$25,245 SAFE cap gain +$33,742
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$613	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$27 cycle +$588 [-$1,329…+$303] · 36% credit	77% surv 69%	+$13,878 SAFE cap gain +$22,375
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$658	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$1.08/sh	-$325 cycle +$236 [-$2,456…-$61] · 24% credit	83% surv 80%	+$27,296 SAFE cap gain +$35,793
budget: banked $561 debit $325 (58% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$236 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,420/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $584.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $584-591.95	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $591.95	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$590.00 (1.6σ)	$561	$6,782	+$15,280	+$4,611
+2.5%	$604.75 (2.1σ)	$-3,864	$6,871	+$15,368	+$4,611
+5%	$619.50 (2.6σ)	$-8,289	$6,959	+$15,457	+$4,611

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$582	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$9.73/sh	+$2,919 cycle +$3,738 [+$2,445…+$3,352] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%	+$7,664 SAFE cap gain +$16,162
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$618	16 Oct 2026	16d left	+$3.07/sh	+$920 cycle +$1,739 [-$330…+$1,228] · 67% credit	78% surv 71%	+$16,559 SAFE cap gain +$25,057
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$606	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.18/sh	+$55 cycle +$874 [-$1,143…+$314] · 38% credit	77% surv 69%	+$11,869 SAFE cap gain +$20,366
Max even-money escape in the band	~$646	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$14 cycle +$833 [-$1,725…+$265] · 34% credit	82% surv 79%	+$24,067 SAFE cap gain +$32,565
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$656	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$1.84/sh	-$552 cycle +$267 [-$2,427…-$318] · 14% credit	84% surv 82%	+$26,562 SAFE cap gain +$35,059
budget: banked $819 debit $552 (67% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$267 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,048/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $576.67	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $577-585.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $585.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$582.50 (1.4σ)	$819	$4,745	+$13,243	+$2,619
+2.5%	$597.06 (1.9σ)	$-3,550	$4,832	+$13,330	+$2,619
+5%	$611.62 (2.4σ)	$-7,918	$4,920	+$13,417	+$2,619

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$568	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$9.89/sh	+$2,966 cycle +$4,601 [+$2,280…+$3,240] · 98% credit	68% surv 52%	+$3,937 SAFE cap gain +$12,435
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$601	16 Oct 2026	16d left	+$3.91/sh	+$1,172 cycle +$2,807 [-$533…+$1,122] · 62% credit	77% surv 70%	+$12,271 SAFE cap gain +$20,769
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$591	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.36/sh	+$108 cycle +$1,743 [-$1,486…-$3] · 25% credit	77% surv 69%	+$8,147 SAFE cap gain +$16,645
Max even-money escape in the band	~$631	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$58 cycle +$1,693 [-$2,310…-$166] · 21% credit	82% surv 79%	+$20,338 SAFE cap gain +$28,835
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$666	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$5.29/sh	-$1,587 cycle +$48 [-$4,424…-$2,009]	89% surv 88%	+$29,403 SAFE cap gain +$37,900
budget: banked $1,635 debit $1,587 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,513/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $561.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $562-573.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $573.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 27 active short call(s) 1 watch · 1 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress	Acct	Call	Spot	Breakeven	Mark	Time value	Status	Action
SPY	Neville:0865	12x $770C 29 Sep 2026 (0d)	$765.32	$770.60	$0.20	$0.20	WATCH ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.68 OTM = 0.6% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$665 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $770.60 (breakeven).
AMZN	Joint:1782	5x $257.5C 30 Sep 2026 (1d)	$246.11	$258.38	$0.06	$0.06	HARVEST ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.39 OTM = 4.6% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $0.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$416 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $258.38 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15x $350C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)	$337.66	$351.10	$0.89	$0.89	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.34 OTM = 3.7% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $0.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,577 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $351.10 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5x $350C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)	$337.66	$351.10	$0.89	$0.89	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.34 OTM = 3.7% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $0.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$526 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $351.10 (breakeven).
COPX	Joint:1782	20x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)	$85.61	$90.65	$0.45	$0.45	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.39 OTM = 5.1% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $0.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,206 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $89.55 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
SPCX	Neville:0865	5x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)	$145.94	$156.11	$0.51	$0.51	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.06 OTM = 6.2% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $0.51 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$532 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $156.11 (breakeven).
HIMS	Main:1299	15x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)	$29.65	$32.28	$0.28	$0.28	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.35 OTM = 7.9% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $0.28 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$345 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $32.28 (breakeven).
SNDK	Neville:0865	1x $1850C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)	$1,704.60	$1,861.43	$13.10	$13.10	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 145.40 OTM = 8.5% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $13.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,138 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,861.43 (breakeven).
APP	RetireInc:7291	1x $335C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)	$306.51	$337.75	$0.78	$0.78	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.49 OTM = 9.3% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $0.78 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$270 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $337.75 (breakeven).
GLXY	Main:1299	100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)	$23.75	$26.26	$0.27	$0.27	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.25 OTM = 9.5% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $0.27 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,131 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $25.87 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.
CRWV	Neville:0865	5x $95C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)	$85.94	$96.03	$0.45	$0.45	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.06 OTM = 10.5% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $0.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$492 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $96.03 (breakeven).
AAPL	RetireInc:7291	5x $360C 5 Oct 2026 (6d)	$332.81	$360.14	$0.07	$0.07	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 27.19 OTM = 8.2% (5.8x a typical daily move). The $0.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$45 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $360.14 (breakeven).
NVDA	Main:1299	10x $240C 9 Oct 2026 (10d)	$229.68	$242.02	$1.44	$1.44	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.32 OTM = 4.5% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $1.44 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $242.02 (breakeven).
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6x $85C 9 Oct 2026 (10d)	$72.07	$85.75	$0.49	$0.49	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.93 OTM = 17.9% (3.7x a typical daily move). The $0.49 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$422 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $85.75 (breakeven).
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (17d)	$337.66	$359.26	$3.10	$3.10	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.34 OTM = 5.1% (2.7x a typical daily move). The $3.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven).
IGV	Main:1299	12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (17d)	$103.97	$112.23	$0.97	$0.97	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.03 OTM = 6.8% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $0.97 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (17d)	$42.21	$55.88	$0.33	$0.33	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.79 OTM = 30.3% (5.6x a typical daily move). The $0.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven).
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (17d)	$42.21	$55.88	$0.33	$0.33	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.79 OTM = 30.3% (5.6x a typical daily move). The $0.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven).
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (24d)	$1,061.58	$1,284.32	$17.02	$17.02	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 188.42 OTM = 17.7% (4.4x a typical daily move). The $17.02 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,854 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,284.32 (breakeven).
INTC	Neville:0865	5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (24d)	$114.13	$162.09	$0.72	$0.72	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 45.87 OTM = 40.2% (7.8x a typical daily move). The $0.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,019 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $162.09 (breakeven).
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (31d)	$194.44	$245.47	$4.25	$4.25	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 45.56 OTM = 23.4% (5.2x a typical daily move). The $4.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,548 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $245.47 (breakeven).
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (52d)	$158.32	$180.96	$12.68	$12.68	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.68 OTM = 7.4% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $12.68 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven).
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (52d)	$158.32	$180.95	$12.68	$12.68	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.68 OTM = 7.4% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $12.68 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven).
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (52d)	$187.66	$224.53	$5.83	$5.83	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.34 OTM = 17.2% (4.9x a typical daily move). The $5.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven).
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (52d)	$1,061.58	$1,376.43	$24.30	$24.30	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 288.42 OTM = 27.2% (6.9x a typical daily move). The $24.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,188 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,376.43 (breakeven).
GLD	Main:1299	10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (80d)	$381.31	$419.00	$6.35	$6.35	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.69 OTM = 8.3% (5.8x a typical daily move). The $6.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,949 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $419.00 (breakeven).
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (80d)	$194.44	$278.82	$6.75	$6.75	OK ▸	🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 75.56 OTM = 38.9% (8.9x a typical daily move). The $6.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,020 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $278.82 (breakeven).

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$27.29	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 48.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$27.29	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 25.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$27.29	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 58.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$13.48	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.0% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$30.85	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 45.1% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$47.71	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$12.27	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 26.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$12.27	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 70.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 26 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AAPL	RetireInc:7291	5	$334.64	5x $360C 5 Oct 2026 (6d)
AMZN	Joint:1782	5	$267.92	5x $258C 30 Sep 2026 (1d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $335C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (80d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (31d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $95C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (80d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $350C 2 Oct 2026 (3d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $350C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)]
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (17d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $350C 2 Oct 2026 (3d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $350C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)]
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (17d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (24d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (17d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (17d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (52d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (52d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (52d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (24d)
NVDA	Main:1299	10	$264.80	10x $240C 9 Oct 2026 (10d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (52d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $85C 9 Oct 2026 (10d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1850C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (3d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $770C 29 Sep 2026 (0d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2914 of 3008 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	207	56%	61%	+5pp
60-70%	381	64%	61%	-3pp
70-80%	519	76%	82%	+6pp
80-90%	682	85%	84%	-0pp
90-100%	1125	94%	95%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2914 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 12 graded weeks; last week 1.36x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 167 real buyback(s) recorded · 84 roll(s), net +$0.58/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 84 real rolls: buyback $6.69/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.58/sh (58 of 84 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-09-29 21:47

Gross FIGHT income	$4,550/mo
vs 50% target ($2,228/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($4,456/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,482/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($21,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($33,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-2,060

Gross FIGHT income	$1,750/mo
vs 50% target ($2,228/mo)	-21%
vs normal income ($4,456/mo)	39% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,682/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($21,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($33,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-2,032

Gross FIGHT income	$1,550/mo
vs 50% target ($2,228/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($4,456/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,482/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$2,350/mo
vs 50% target ($2,228/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($4,456/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,282/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$4,500/mo
vs 50% target ($2,228/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($4,456/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,432/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$13,050/mo
vs 50% target ($7,544/mo)	+73%
vs normal income ($15,088/mo)	86% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,654/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($75,750)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($99,750)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-8,542

Gross FIGHT income	$6,360/mo
vs 50% target ($7,544/mo)	-16%
vs normal income ($15,088/mo)	42% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,964/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$5,610/mo
vs 50% target ($7,544/mo)	-26%
vs normal income ($15,088/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,214/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$8,190/mo
vs 50% target ($7,544/mo)	+9%
vs normal income ($15,088/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,794/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$16,350/mo
vs 50% target ($7,544/mo)	+117%
vs normal income ($15,088/mo)	108% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,954/mo

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$567.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,635	$971	+$9,469	-$1,065
+2.5%	$581.69 (1.3σ)	$-2,621	$1,056	+$9,554	-$1,065
+5%	$595.88 (1.8σ)	$-6,878	$1,141	+$9,639	-$1,065

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$35	23 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.12/sh	+$288 cycle +$413	67% surv 55%	-$51 NOT cap gain +$24,099
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$35	23 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.19/sh	+$480 cycle +$605	69% surv 56%	+$892 SAFE cap gain +$25,042
Max even-money escape in the band	~$35	23 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.19/sh	+$480 cycle +$605	69% surv 56%	+$892 SAFE cap gain +$25,042
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Gross FIGHT income	$221/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)	-94%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$221/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($5,525)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-24,275

Spot \ Time	≥ 9d left	3-8d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $34.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $35-35.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $35.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$35.00 (2.6σ)	$125	$-339	+$23,811	+$0
+2.5%	$35.88 (2.8σ)	$-2,062	$-703	+$23,447	+$0
+5%	$36.75 (3.0σ)	$-4,250	$-1,066	+$23,084	+$0
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (3.7σ)	$-11,650	$-2,294	+$21,856	+$0

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$26	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.57/sh	+$1,437 cycle +$1,587 [+$1,032…+$1,714] · 95% credit	67% surv 53%	-$16,600 NOT cap gain +$7,550
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$30	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.29/sh	+$720 cycle +$870 [-$99…+$1,013] · 72% credit	79% surv 74%	-$10,312 NOT cap gain +$13,838
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$27	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.19/sh	+$470 cycle +$620 [-$180…+$719] · 69% credit	72% surv 62%	-$15,774 NOT cap gain +$8,376
Max even-money escape in the band	~$31	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.01/sh	+$15 cycle +$165 [-$975…+$284] · 43% credit	82% surv 78%	-$8,931 NOT cap gain +$15,219
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Gross FIGHT income	$1,500/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)	-56%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,500/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,146
… as % of IC ($5,525)	382.7%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	38.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.1 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-24,287

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $26.23	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $26-26.61	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $26.61	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$26.50 (1.6σ)	$150	$-18,037	+$6,113	+$25
+2.5%	$27.16 (1.9σ)	$-1,506	$-18,312	+$5,838	-$1,631
+5%	$27.83 (2.3σ)	$-3,163	$-18,587	+$5,563	-$3,288
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (8.9σ)	$-32,875	$-23,519	+$631	-$21,225

Gross FIGHT income	$2,300/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,432/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,288
… as % of IC ($5,525)	168.1%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	16.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-9,740

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $25-25.81	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $25.81	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$25.50 (1.0σ)	$230	$-19,967	+$4,183	+$180
+2.5%	$26.14 (1.4σ)	$-407	$-19,275	+$4,875	-$458
+5%	$26.78 (1.7σ)	$-1,045	$-18,584	+$5,566	-$1,095
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (8.9σ)	$-13,980	$-11,614	+$12,536	-$9,320

Gross FIGHT income	$3,450/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,538/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,933
… as % of IC ($5,525)	252.2%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	25.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (15 ct)	$-14,610

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$25.50 (1.0σ)	$345	$-19,877	+$4,273	+$270
+2.5%	$26.14 (1.4σ)	$-611	$-19,504	+$4,646	-$686
+5%	$26.78 (1.7σ)	$-1,568	$-19,131	+$5,019	-$1,643
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (8.9σ)	$-20,970	$-16,274	+$7,876	-$13,980

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (21 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$25	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.52/sh	+$1,097 cycle +$1,790 [+$645…+$1,222] · 94% credit	67% surv 53%	-$19,505 NOT cap gain +$4,645
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$27	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.46/sh	+$956 cycle +$1,649 [+$243…+$1,031] · 84% credit	76% surv 70%	-$14,724 NOT cap gain +$9,426
Max even-money escape in the band	~$28	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$393 cycle +$1,086 [-$432…+$429] · 53% credit	80% surv 75%	-$13,203 NOT cap gain +$10,947
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$26	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$299 cycle +$992 [-$343…+$344] · 53% credit	72% surv 63%	-$18,510 NOT cap gain +$5,640
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$30	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.25/sh	-$529 cycle +$164 [-$1,593…-$574] · 1% credit	86% surv 84%	-$9,955 NOT cap gain +$14,195
budget: banked $693 debit $529 (76% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$164 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $1,444/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$6,930/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,965/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,346
… as % of IC ($5,525)	368.2%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	36.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (21 ct)	$-20,412

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $24.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $25-25.39	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $25.39	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.