FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $12,180/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $8,071/mo · plus $19,350/mo CC-safe on 2 shallow row(s) ⓘ ⚠ 1 negative E[net]
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $844,771 locked in if all 11 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri | 20 | $41.23 | $57.79 | 20 × $58 23 Oct (23d) $400 cyc · $522/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:9%hist 3% | 20 × $45 2 Oct (2d) $340 cyc · $5,100/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14% | 19 × $45.50 2 Oct (2d) $209 cyc · $3,135/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 14% | 🎯 18 × $45 2 Oct (2d) $306 cyc · $4,590/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14% | 17 × $43.50 2 Oct (2d) $612 cyc · $9,180/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 41% | $5,471 | -$22,720 (378.7% IC) | 40.2% |
| IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 20 | $41.23 | $66.67 | 20 × $65 9 Oct (9d) $20 cyc · $67/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3% | 20 × $45 2 Oct (2d) $340 cyc · $5,100/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14% | 19 × $45.50 2 Oct (2d) $209 cyc · $3,135/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 14% | 🎯 18 × $45 2 Oct (2d) $306 cyc · $4,590/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14% | 17 × $43.50 2 Oct (2d) $612 cyc · $9,180/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 41% | $4,076 | -$38,707 (282.5% IC) | 61.7% |
| SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock | |||||||||||
| CRCL ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri | 5 | $84.16 | $90.21 | 🎯 5 × $91 2 Oct (2d) $210 cyc · $3,150/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:25%hist 25% above floor +$394 · hole 1.0mo | 5 × $98 9 Oct (9d)alt tenor $230 cyc · $767/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 14% above floor +$3,894 · hole 3.9mo | 5 × $94 2 Oct (2d) $105 cyc · $1,575/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:12%hist 14% above floor +$1,894 · hole 1.9mo | 5 × $92.50 2 Oct (2d) $150 cyc · $2,250/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 14% above floor +$1,144 · hole 1.3mo | 5 × $89 2 Oct (2d) $345 cyc · $5,175/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:39%hist 33% locks −$261 · hole 0.6mo | $280 | +$394 whole if assigned | 7.2% whole ~29 Oct on 🎯 |
| DELL ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri | 3 | $549.26 | $567.02 | 🎯 3 × $575 2 Oct (2d) $1,080 cyc · $16,200/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 33% above floor +$2,395 · hole 0.3mo | 3 × $590 2 Oct (2d) $513 cyc · $7,695/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14% above floor +$6,895 · hole 0.7mo | 3 × $595 2 Oct (2d) $384 cyc · $5,760/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 14% above floor +$8,395 · hole 0.9mo | 3 × $587.50 2 Oct (2d) $609 cyc · $9,135/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:22%hist 25% above floor +$6,145 · hole 0.6mo | 🎯 3 × $575 2 Oct (2d) $1,080 cyc · $16,200/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 33% above floor +$2,395 · hole 0.3mo | $1,059 | +$2,395 whole if assigned | 3.2% whole ~10 Oct on 🎯 |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $20.39 | $17.33 BE | +17.7% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| HOOD Joint:1782 | 10 | $116.21 | $114.95 BE | +1.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| MU-LC670 Joint:1782 | 1 | $1,074.80 | $792.36 BE | +35.6% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| SPY Neville:0865 | 12 | $766.99 | $764.00 BE | +0.4% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 20d Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $23.20 | $34.54 | 25 × $35 16 Oct (16d) $50 cyc · $94/mo 98% survhist 96% · T:4%hist 3% | 25 × $25.50 2 Oct (2d) $250 cyc · $3,750/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 14% | 13 × $25.50 2 Oct (2d) $130 cyc · $1,950/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 14% | 🎯 20 × $25.50 2 Oct (2d) $200 cyc · $3,000/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 14% | 25 × $24 2 Oct (2d) $400 cyc · $6,000/mo 69% survhist 64% · T:64%hist 59% | $6,095 | -$17,880 (323.6% IC) | 48.9% |
| TOTAL (5) | 73 | following every 🎯 $2,102 cyc · $31,530/mo | $1,760 cyc · $20,032/mo | $1,673 cyc · $22,412/mo | $1,037 cyc · $15,555/mo | $1,571 cyc · $23,565/mo | $3,049 cyc · $45,735/mo | $16,981 | -$79,307 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$91 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.57/sh | +$787 cycle +$997 [+$567…+$867] · 95% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$1,479 SAFE cap gain +$4,619 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$100 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.87/sh | +$436 cycle +$646 [-$97…+$454] · 70% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$5,809 SAFE cap gain +$8,949 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$96 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.03/sh | +$17 cycle +$227 [-$467…+$14] · 29% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$3,271 SAFE cap gain +$6,411 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.00/sh | +$2 cycle +$212 [-$647…-$3] · 23% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$7,493 SAFE cap gain +$10,633 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$106 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.31/sh | -$155 cycle +$55 [-$847…-$169] · 8% credit | 85% surv 83% | +$8,395 SAFE cap gain +$11,535 |
| budget: banked $210 debit $155 (74% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,016/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,128/mo) | +48% |
| vs normal income ($4,256/mo) | 74% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,081/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-3,167 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $90.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $90-91.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $91.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $91.00 (1.6σ) | $210 | $692 | +$3,832 | +$460 |
| +2.5% | $93.27 (2.1σ) | $-927 | $759 | +$3,899 | +$460 |
| +5% | $95.55 (2.6σ) | $-2,065 | $826 | +$3,966 | +$460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 16 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$0.85/sh | +$424 cycle +$654 [+$287…+$715] · 95% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$4,842 SAFE cap gain +$7,982 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$101 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$254 cycle +$484 [-$2…+$531] · 75% credit | 70% surv 61% | +$6,176 SAFE cap gain +$9,316 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$102 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.21/sh | +$104 cycle +$334 [-$176…+$361] · 60% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$6,555 SAFE cap gain +$9,695 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$100 | 16 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$0.10/sh | +$49 cycle +$279 [-$147…+$278] · 57% credit | 69% surv 59% | +$5,442 SAFE cap gain +$8,582 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$105 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.23/sh | -$113 cycle +$117 [-$430…+$107] · 36% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$7,927 SAFE cap gain +$11,067 |
| budget: banked $230 debit $113 (49% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$117 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,569/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $767/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,128/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($4,256/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $698/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-3,195 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $97.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $97-98.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $98.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $98.00 (1.5σ) | $230 | $4,418 | +$7,558 | +$3,980 |
| +2.5% | $100.45 (1.7σ) | $-995 | $4,491 | +$7,631 | +$3,980 |
| +5% | $102.90 (2.0σ) | $-2,220 | $4,563 | +$7,703 | +$3,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$94 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.55/sh | +$776 cycle +$881 [+$612…+$864] · 99% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$2,951 SAFE cap gain +$6,091 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$103 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.86/sh | +$432 cycle +$537 [-$24…+$458] · 73% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$7,288 SAFE cap gain +$10,428 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$106 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.19/sh | +$96 cycle +$201 [-$434…+$99] · 35% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$8,540 SAFE cap gain +$11,680 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$99 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$5 cycle +$110 [-$406…+$5] · 27% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$4,743 SAFE cap gain +$7,883 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$108 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.18/sh | -$88 cycle +$17 [-$664…-$98] · 15% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$9,415 SAFE cap gain +$12,555 |
| budget: banked $105 debit $88 (84% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,147/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,575/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,128/mo) | -26% |
| vs normal income ($4,256/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,506/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-3,155 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $93.06 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $93-94.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $94.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $94.00 (2.2σ) | $105 | $2,175 | +$5,315 | +$1,855 |
| +2.5% | $96.35 (2.8σ) | $-1,070 | $2,245 | +$5,385 | +$1,855 |
| +5% | $98.70 (3.3σ) | $-2,245 | $2,314 | +$5,454 | +$1,855 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$92 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.56/sh | +$782 cycle +$932 [+$582…+$853] · 95% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$2,208 SAFE cap gain +$5,348 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$101 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.87/sh | +$434 cycle +$584 [-$82…+$427] · 69% credit | 78% surv 74% | +$6,541 SAFE cap gain +$9,681 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$104 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.20/sh | +$100 cycle +$250 [-$500…+$80] · 37% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$7,795 SAFE cap gain +$10,935 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$97 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$11 cycle +$161 [-$443…-$6] · 24% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$4,000 SAFE cap gain +$7,140 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$106 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.17/sh | -$83 cycle +$67 [-$728…-$109] · 15% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$8,671 SAFE cap gain +$11,811 |
| budget: banked $150 debit $83 (55% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$67 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,134/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,128/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($4,256/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,181/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-3,160 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $91.58 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $92-92.84 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $92.84 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $92.50 (1.9σ) | $150 | $1,426 | +$4,566 | +$1,150 |
| +2.5% | $94.81 (2.4σ) | $-1,006 | $1,494 | +$4,634 | +$1,150 |
| +5% | $97.12 (2.9σ) | $-2,162 | $1,562 | +$4,702 | +$1,150 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$89 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.59/sh | +$793 cycle +$1,138 [+$512…+$793] · 96% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$561 SAFE cap gain +$3,701 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$98 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.87/sh | +$437 cycle +$782 [-$213…+$396] · 64% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$4,886 SAFE cap gain +$8,026 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$94 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$24 cycle +$369 [-$538…-$26] · 20% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$2,354 SAFE cap gain +$5,494 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$102 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$6 cycle +$351 [-$776…-$62] · 14% credit | 83% surv 81% | +$6,573 SAFE cap gain +$9,713 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$107 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.65/sh | -$324 cycle +$21 [-$1,214…-$409] | 88% surv 87% | +$8,890 SAFE cap gain +$12,030 |
| budget: banked $345 debit $324 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $759/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,175/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,128/mo) | +143% |
| vs normal income ($4,256/mo) | 122% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,106/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$261 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 1.2% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-3,175 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $88.11 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $88-89.76 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $89.76 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $89.00 (1.1σ) | $345 | $-232 | +$2,908 | -$405 |
| +2.5% | $91.22 (1.6σ) | $-767 | $-167 | +$2,973 | -$405 |
| +5% | $93.45 (2.1σ) | $-1,880 | $-101 | +$3,039 | -$405 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$575 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$9.98/sh | +$2,994 cycle +$4,074 [+$2,118…+$2,990] · 96% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$6,777 SAFE cap gain +$11,982 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$621 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$4.78/sh | +$1,434 cycle +$2,514 [-$609…+$1,284] · 66% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$19,268 SAFE cap gain +$24,473 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$598 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.72/sh | +$216 cycle +$1,296 [-$1,588…+$45] · 28% credit | 75% surv 69% | +$11,137 SAFE cap gain +$16,342 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$641 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.42/sh | +$127 cycle +$1,207 [-$2,283…-$101] · 20% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$24,105 SAFE cap gain +$29,310 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$661 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$3.19/sh | -$958 cycle +$122 [-$3,661…-$1,241] | 86% surv 84% | +$29,163 SAFE cap gain +$34,368 |
| budget: banked $1,080 debit $958 (89% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$122 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,846/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,748/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($15,497/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,712/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-5,370 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $569.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $569-579.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $579.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $575.00 (1.0σ) | $1,080 | $3,782 | +$8,987 | -$1,710 |
| +2.5% | $589.38 (1.6σ) | $-3,232 | $3,886 | +$9,091 | -$1,710 |
| +5% | $603.75 (2.2σ) | $-7,545 | $3,989 | +$9,194 | -$1,710 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$590 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$9.87/sh | +$2,960 cycle +$3,473 [+$2,169…+$3,154] · 96% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$10,783 SAFE cap gain +$15,988 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$636 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$4.68/sh | +$1,404 cycle +$1,917 [-$452…+$1,377] · 67% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$23,279 SAFE cap gain +$28,484 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$613 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.58/sh | +$175 cycle +$688 [-$1,476…+$119] · 31% credit | 75% surv 69% | +$15,138 SAFE cap gain +$20,343 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$656 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.31/sh | +$92 cycle +$605 [-$2,116…+$14] · 26% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$28,111 SAFE cap gain +$33,316 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$666 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$1.70/sh | -$509 cycle +$4 [-$2,870…-$600] · 9% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$30,582 SAFE cap gain +$35,787 |
| budget: banked $513 debit $509 (99% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,568/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,695/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,748/mo) | -1% |
| vs normal income ($15,497/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,207/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-5,268 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $584.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $584-591.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $591.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $590.00 (1.6σ) | $513 | $7,823 | +$13,028 | +$2,223 |
| +2.5% | $604.75 (2.2σ) | $-3,912 | $7,930 | +$13,135 | +$2,223 |
| +5% | $619.50 (2.8σ) | $-8,337 | $8,036 | +$13,241 | +$2,223 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$595 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$9.82/sh | +$2,947 cycle +$3,331 [+$2,339…+$3,235] · 97% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$12,178 SAFE cap gain +$17,383 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$641 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$4.64/sh | +$1,392 cycle +$1,776 [-$234…+$1,505] · 69% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$24,674 SAFE cap gain +$29,879 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$618 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.53/sh | +$160 cycle +$544 [-$1,296…+$185] · 33% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$16,530 SAFE cap gain +$21,735 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$661 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.26/sh | +$79 cycle +$463 [-$1,892…+$100] · 27% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$29,505 SAFE cap gain +$34,710 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$666 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.88/sh | -$263 cycle +$121 [-$2,286…-$255] · 21% credit | 83% surv 81% | +$30,699 SAFE cap gain +$35,904 |
| budget: banked $384 debit $263 (68% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$121 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,939/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,760/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,748/mo) | -26% |
| vs normal income ($15,497/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,272/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-5,263 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $589.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $589-596.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $596.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $595.00 (1.8σ) | $384 | $9,230 | +$14,435 | +$3,594 |
| +2.5% | $609.88 (2.4σ) | $-4,078 | $9,337 | +$14,542 | +$3,594 |
| +5% | $624.75 (3.0σ) | $-8,541 | $9,445 | +$14,650 | +$3,594 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$588 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$9.89/sh | +$2,966 cycle +$3,575 [+$2,151…+$3,191] · 96% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$10,118 SAFE cap gain +$15,323 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$633 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$4.70/sh | +$1,410 cycle +$2,019 [-$536…+$1,402] · 66% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$22,612 SAFE cap gain +$27,817 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$611 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.61/sh | +$182 cycle +$791 [-$1,516…+$144] · 34% credit | 75% surv 69% | +$14,473 SAFE cap gain +$19,678 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$653 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.33/sh | +$98 cycle +$707 [-$2,209…+$44] · 27% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$27,445 SAFE cap gain +$32,650 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$663 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$1.67/sh | -$502 cycle +$107 [-$2,961…-$560] · 9% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$29,917 SAFE cap gain +$35,122 |
| budget: banked $609 debit $502 (82% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$107 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,559/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,135/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,748/mo) | +18% |
| vs normal income ($15,497/mo) | 59% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,647/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-5,280 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $581.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $582-589.78 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $589.78 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $587.50 (1.5σ) | $609 | $7,151 | +$12,356 | +$1,569 |
| +2.5% | $602.19 (2.1σ) | $-3,797 | $7,257 | +$12,462 | +$1,569 |
| +5% | $616.88 (2.7σ) | $-8,204 | $7,363 | +$12,568 | +$1,569 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$575 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$9.98/sh | +$2,994 cycle +$4,074 [+$2,118…+$2,990] · 96% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$6,777 SAFE cap gain +$11,982 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$621 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$4.78/sh | +$1,434 cycle +$2,514 [-$609…+$1,284] · 66% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$19,268 SAFE cap gain +$24,473 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$598 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.72/sh | +$216 cycle +$1,296 [-$1,588…+$45] · 28% credit | 75% surv 69% | +$11,137 SAFE cap gain +$16,342 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$641 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.42/sh | +$127 cycle +$1,207 [-$2,283…-$101] · 20% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$24,105 SAFE cap gain +$29,310 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$661 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$3.19/sh | -$958 cycle +$122 [-$3,661…-$1,241] | 86% surv 84% | +$29,163 SAFE cap gain +$34,368 |
| budget: banked $1,080 debit $958 (89% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$122 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,846/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,748/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($15,497/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,712/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-5,370 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $569.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $569-579.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $579.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $575.00 (1.0σ) | $1,080 | $3,782 | +$8,987 | -$1,710 |
| +2.5% | $589.38 (1.6σ) | $-3,232 | $3,886 | +$9,091 | -$1,710 |
| +5% | $603.75 (2.2σ) | $-7,545 | $3,989 | +$9,194 | -$1,710 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 23 Oct 2026 | 15d left | +$0.08/sh | +$208 cycle +$258 | 66% surv 55% | +$633 SAFE cap gain +$24,596 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$35 | 23 Oct 2026 | 15d left | +$0.17/sh | +$421 cycle +$471 | 65% surv 54% | +$434 SAFE cap gain +$24,396 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $94/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,883/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($5,766/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $94/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-24,025 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 9d left | 3-8d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (2.7σ) | $50 | $425 | +$24,388 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (2.9σ) | $-2,138 | $42 | +$24,005 | +$0 |
| +5% | $36.75 (3.1σ) | $-4,325 | $-341 | +$23,622 | +$0 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (3.8σ) | $-11,725 | $-1,636 | +$22,327 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$522 cycle +$772 [-$2,003…+$445] · 38% credit | 68% surv 60% | -$16,797 NOT cap gain +$7,165 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 16 Oct 2026 | 15d left | -$0.07/sh | -$184 cycle +$66 [-$2,604…-$252] · 18% credit | 69% surv 60% | -$17,503 NOT cap gain +$6,459 |
| budget: banked $250 debit $184 (74% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$66 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $5,797/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | -$0.24/sh | -$596 cycle -$346 [-$3,040…-$700] · 6% credit | 63% surv 53% | -$19,564 NOT cap gain +$4,398 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,750/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,883/mo) | +30% |
| vs normal income ($5,766/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,349 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 404.5% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 40.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-24,325 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.50 (1.5σ) | $250 | $-18,969 | +$4,994 | +$200 |
| +2.5% | $26.14 (1.9σ) | $-1,344 | $-19,248 | +$4,715 | -$1,394 |
| +5% | $26.78 (2.3σ) | $-2,938 | $-19,527 | +$4,436 | -$2,988 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (10.6σ) | $-35,275 | $-25,186 | -$1,223 | -$23,550 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (13 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$271 cycle +$401 [-$704…+$227] · 43% credit | 68% surv 60% | -$17,143 NOT cap gain +$6,819 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 16 Oct 2026 | 15d left | -$0.07/sh | -$96 cycle +$34 [-$1,031…-$138] · 18% credit | 69% surv 60% | -$17,511 NOT cap gain +$6,452 |
| budget: banked $130 debit $96 (74% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 13 ct earn ≈ $3,014/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | -$0.24/sh | -$310 cycle -$180 [-$1,265…-$353] · 6% credit | 63% surv 53% | -$19,375 NOT cap gain +$4,588 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,883/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($5,766/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,995/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,622 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 210.3% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 20.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (13 ct) | $-12,649 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.50 (1.5σ) | $130 | $-19,065 | +$4,898 | +$104 |
| +2.5% | $26.14 (1.9σ) | $-699 | $-18,579 | +$5,384 | -$725 |
| +5% | $26.78 (2.3σ) | $-1,528 | $-18,093 | +$5,870 | -$1,554 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (10.6σ) | $-18,343 | $-13,882 | +$10,081 | -$12,246 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$417 cycle +$617 [-$1,132…+$397] · 43% credit | 68% surv 60% | -$16,941 NOT cap gain +$7,021 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 16 Oct 2026 | 15d left | -$0.07/sh | -$147 cycle +$53 [-$1,633…-$167] · 19% credit | 69% surv 60% | -$17,506 NOT cap gain +$6,456 |
| budget: banked $200 debit $147 (74% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,637/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | -$0.24/sh | -$477 cycle -$277 [-$2,002…-$516] · 5% credit | 63% surv 53% | -$19,485 NOT cap gain +$4,477 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,883/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($5,766/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,019/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,880 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 323.6% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 32.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-19,460 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.50 (1.5σ) | $200 | $-19,009 | +$4,954 | +$160 |
| +2.5% | $26.14 (1.9σ) | $-1,075 | $-18,969 | +$4,994 | -$1,115 |
| +5% | $26.78 (2.3σ) | $-2,350 | $-18,929 | +$5,033 | -$2,390 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (10.6σ) | $-28,220 | $-20,476 | +$3,487 | -$18,840 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.17/sh | +$425 cycle +$825 [-$2,653…+$64] · 27% credit | 68% surv 60% | -$19,838 NOT cap gain +$4,125 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.14/sh | -$361 cycle +$39 [-$3,608…-$752] · 6% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$18,561 NOT cap gain +$5,402 |
| budget: banked $400 debit $361 (90% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$39 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,339/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | -$0.22/sh | -$548 cycle -$148 [-$3,522…-$902] · 2% credit | 63% surv 53% | -$22,461 NOT cap gain +$1,502 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,883/mo) | +108% |
| vs normal income ($5,766/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,949 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 469.7% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 46.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.5 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-25,012 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.76 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-24.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $400 | $-21,912 | +$2,050 | +$350 |
| +2.5% | $24.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,100 | $-22,175 | +$1,788 | -$1,150 |
| +5% | $25.20 (1.3σ) | $-2,600 | $-22,437 | +$1,525 | -$2,650 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (10.6σ) | $-38,875 | $-28,786 | -$4,823 | -$27,150 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $522/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,519/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($9,038/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $322/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-37,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 12d left | 3-11d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $57.42 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $57-58.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $58.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $58.00 (2.2σ) | $400 | $1,866 | +$39,206 | +$2,160 |
| +2.5% | $59.45 (2.4σ) | $-2,500 | $2,321 | +$39,661 | +$2,160 |
| +5% | $60.90 (2.6σ) | $-5,400 | $2,776 | +$40,116 | +$2,160 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.17/sh | +$2,349 cycle +$2,689 [+$2,194…+$2,559] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$25,928 NOT cap gain +$11,412 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.26/sh | +$521 cycle +$861 [-$420…+$571] · 60% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$9,775 NOT cap gain +$27,565 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$328 cycle +$668 [-$652…+$363] · 51% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$7,654 NOT cap gain +$29,686 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$101 cycle +$441 [-$729…+$98] · 36% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$20,608 NOT cap gain +$16,732 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$56 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.14/sh | -$286 cycle +$54 [-$1,444…-$291] · 9% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$3,641 NOT cap gain +$33,699 |
| budget: banked $340 debit $286 (84% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,083/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,519/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($9,038/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,900/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$25,245 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 420.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 26.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-37,350 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $340 | $-28,276 | +$9,064 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.2σ) | $-1,910 | $-27,923 | +$9,417 | -$2,150 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.6σ) | $-4,160 | $-27,570 | +$9,770 | -$4,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (6.7σ) | $-22,660 | $-24,665 | +$12,675 | -$22,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.20/sh | +$2,275 cycle +$2,484 [+$2,140…+$2,482] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$24,963 NOT cap gain +$12,377 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.29/sh | +$557 cycle +$766 [-$296…+$622] · 63% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$8,701 NOT cap gain +$28,639 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.20/sh | +$372 cycle +$581 [-$514…+$423] · 54% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$6,573 NOT cap gain +$30,767 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$130 cycle +$339 [-$607…+$133] · 36% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$19,541 NOT cap gain +$17,799 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.01/sh | -$17 cycle +$192 [-$1,007…+$8] · 26% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$4,647 NOT cap gain +$32,693 |
| budget: banked $209 debit $17 (8% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$192 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,369/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,135/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,519/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($9,038/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,958/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,147 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 385.8% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 24.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-35,511 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.50 (1.9σ) | $209 | $-27,238 | +$10,102 | -$19 |
| +2.5% | $46.64 (2.4σ) | $-1,952 | $-26,767 | +$10,573 | -$2,180 |
| +5% | $47.77 (2.9σ) | $-4,113 | $-26,296 | +$11,044 | -$4,341 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (6.7σ) | $-20,691 | $-22,684 | +$14,656 | -$20,919 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.17/sh | +$2,114 cycle +$2,420 [+$1,976…+$2,307] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$26,172 NOT cap gain +$11,168 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.26/sh | +$469 cycle +$775 [-$327…+$530] · 61% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$9,837 NOT cap gain +$27,503 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$295 cycle +$601 [-$540…+$343] · 54% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$7,697 NOT cap gain +$29,643 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$91 cycle +$397 [-$632…+$95] · 36% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$20,628 NOT cap gain +$16,712 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$56 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.14/sh | -$258 cycle +$48 [-$1,252…-$247] · 9% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$3,622 NOT cap gain +$33,718 |
| budget: banked $306 debit $258 (84% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,875/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,590/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,519/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($9,038/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,435/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,720 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 378.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 24.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-33,615 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $306 | $-28,286 | +$9,054 | +$90 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.2σ) | $-1,719 | $-27,708 | +$9,632 | -$1,935 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.6σ) | $-3,744 | $-27,130 | +$10,210 | -$3,960 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (6.7σ) | $-20,394 | $-22,375 | +$14,965 | -$20,610 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.11/sh | +$1,880 cycle +$2,492 [+$1,666…+$1,932] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$29,559 NOT cap gain +$7,781 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$50 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.39/sh | +$658 cycle +$1,270 [-$220…+$594] · 68% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$15,116 NOT cap gain +$22,224 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.12/sh | +$207 cycle +$819 [-$539…+$140] · 43% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$24,822 NOT cap gain +$12,518 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$52 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$126 cycle +$738 [-$906…+$31] · 29% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$11,020 NOT cap gain +$26,320 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.30/sh | -$505 cycle +$107 [-$1,755…-$632] | 90% surv 90% | -$4,708 NOT cap gain +$32,632 |
| budget: banked $612 debit $505 (82% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$107 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $1,303/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,180/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,519/mo) | +103% |
| vs normal income ($9,038/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,048/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,685 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 394.8% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 25.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-31,790 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.06 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $612 | $-31,439 | +$5,901 | +$408 |
| +2.5% | $44.59 (1.5σ) | $-1,237 | $-30,771 | +$6,569 | -$1,441 |
| +5% | $45.68 (2.0σ) | $-3,086 | $-30,104 | +$7,236 | -$3,290 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (6.7σ) | $-21,488 | $-23,457 | +$13,883 | -$21,692 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 16 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$1.64/sh | +$3,270 cycle +$3,290 | 68% surv 54% | +$784 SAFE cap gain +$57,534 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$69 | 16 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$0.01/sh | +$22 cycle +$42 | 75% surv 67% | +$7,279 SAFE cap gain +$64,029 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$74 | 23 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$193 cycle +$213 | 79% surv 74% | +$17,719 SAFE cap gain +$74,469 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $67/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,519/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($9,038/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-204/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,328 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 24.3% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 3.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-56,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $64.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $64-65.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $65.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $65.00 (4.9σ) | $20 | $-2,487 | +$54,263 | -$80 |
| +2.5% | $66.62 (5.3σ) | $-3,230 | $-2,029 | +$54,721 | -$80 |
| +5% | $68.25 (5.6σ) | $-6,480 | $-1,570 | +$55,180 | -$80 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.17/sh | +$2,349 cycle +$2,689 [+$2,194…+$2,559] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$45,458 NOT cap gain +$11,292 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.26/sh | +$521 cycle +$861 [-$420…+$571] · 60% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$29,554 NOT cap gain +$27,196 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$328 cycle +$668 [-$652…+$363] · 51% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$27,466 NOT cap gain +$29,284 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$101 cycle +$441 [-$729…+$98] · 36% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$40,244 NOT cap gain +$16,506 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$56 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.14/sh | -$286 cycle +$54 [-$1,444…-$291] · 9% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$23,516 NOT cap gain +$33,234 |
| budget: banked $340 debit $286 (84% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,083/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,519/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($9,038/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,829/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,008 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 313.9% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 39.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-56,760 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $340 | $-47,807 | +$8,943 | +$240 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.2σ) | $-1,910 | $-47,490 | +$9,260 | -$2,010 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.6σ) | $-4,160 | $-47,172 | +$9,578 | -$4,260 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.8σ) | $-36,520 | $-42,610 | +$14,140 | -$36,620 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.20/sh | +$2,275 cycle +$2,484 [+$2,140…+$2,482] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$44,517 NOT cap gain +$12,233 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.29/sh | +$557 cycle +$766 [-$296…+$622] · 63% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$28,504 NOT cap gain +$28,246 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.20/sh | +$372 cycle +$581 [-$514…+$423] · 54% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$26,407 NOT cap gain +$30,343 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$130 cycle +$339 [-$607…+$133] · 36% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$39,200 NOT cap gain +$17,550 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.01/sh | -$17 cycle +$192 [-$1,007…+$8] · 26% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$24,514 NOT cap gain +$32,236 |
| budget: banked $209 debit $17 (8% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$192 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,369/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,135/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,519/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($9,038/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,874/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$40,021 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 292.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 37.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.4 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-53,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.50 (1.9σ) | $209 | $-46,792 | +$9,958 | +$114 |
| +2.5% | $46.64 (2.4σ) | $-1,952 | $-46,357 | +$10,393 | -$2,047 |
| +5% | $47.77 (2.9σ) | $-4,113 | $-45,923 | +$10,827 | -$4,208 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.8σ) | $-33,858 | $-39,943 | +$16,807 | -$33,953 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.17/sh | +$2,114 cycle +$2,420 [+$1,976…+$2,307] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$45,717 NOT cap gain +$11,033 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.26/sh | +$469 cycle +$775 [-$327…+$530] · 61% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$29,630 NOT cap gain +$27,120 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$54 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$295 cycle +$601 [-$540…+$343] · 54% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$27,523 NOT cap gain +$29,227 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$48 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$91 cycle +$397 [-$632…+$95] · 36% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$40,278 NOT cap gain +$16,472 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$56 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.14/sh | -$258 cycle +$48 [-$1,252…-$247] · 9% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$23,511 NOT cap gain +$33,239 |
| budget: banked $306 debit $258 (84% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,875/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,590/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,519/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($9,038/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,338/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,707 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 282.5% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 35.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-51,084 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (1.7σ) | $306 | $-47,831 | +$8,919 | +$216 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.2σ) | $-1,719 | $-47,289 | +$9,461 | -$1,809 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.6σ) | $-3,744 | $-46,746 | +$10,004 | -$3,834 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.8σ) | $-32,868 | $-38,948 | +$17,802 | -$32,958 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$1.11/sh | +$1,880 cycle +$2,492 [+$1,666…+$1,932] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$49,062 NOT cap gain +$7,688 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$50 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.39/sh | +$658 cycle +$1,270 [-$220…+$594] · 68% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$34,836 NOT cap gain +$21,914 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 9 Oct 2026 | 8d left | +$0.12/sh | +$207 cycle +$819 [-$539…+$140] · 43% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$44,414 NOT cap gain +$12,336 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$52 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$126 cycle +$738 [-$906…+$31] · 29% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$30,804 NOT cap gain +$25,946 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$55 | 23 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.30/sh | -$505 cycle +$107 [-$1,755…-$632] | 90% surv 90% | -$24,588 NOT cap gain +$32,162 |
| budget: banked $612 debit $505 (82% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$107 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $1,303/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,180/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,519/mo) | +103% |
| vs normal income ($9,038/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,938/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,784 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 283.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 36.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.3 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-48,288 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.06 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $612 | $-50,943 | +$5,807 | +$527 |
| +2.5% | $44.59 (1.5σ) | $-1,237 | $-50,310 | +$6,440 | -$1,322 |
| +5% | $45.68 (2.0σ) | $-3,086 | $-49,677 | +$7,073 | -$3,171 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.8σ) | $-33,269 | $-39,344 | +$17,406 | -$33,354 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $350C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) | $344.07 | $351.10 | $2.10 | $2.10 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.93 OTM = 1.7% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $2.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,577 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $351.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $350C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) | $344.07 | $351.10 | $2.10 | $2.10 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.93 OTM = 1.7% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $2.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$526 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $35.86/sh BELOW the $385.86 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $17,931 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $351.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) | $149.62 | $156.11 | $0.72 | $0.72 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.38 OTM = 3.6% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $0.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$532 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $37.88/sh BELOW the $192.88 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $18,942 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $156.11 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $257.5C 30 Sep 2026 (0d) | $247.10 | $258.38 | $0.01 | $0.01 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.40 OTM = 4.2% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $0.01 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$416 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $258.38 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $335C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) | $299.80 | $337.75 | $0.22 | $0.22 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 35.20 OTM = 11.7% (2.6x a typical daily move). The $0.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$270 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $337.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $360C 5 Oct 2026 (5d) | $332.83 | $360.14 | $0.04 | $0.04 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 27.17 OTM = 8.2% (5.4x a typical daily move). The $0.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$45 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $360.14 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) | $86.00 | $90.65 | $0.23 | $0.23 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.00 OTM = 4.7% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $0.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,206 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $89.55 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1850C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) | $1,734.74 | $1,861.43 | $13.80 | $13.80 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 115.26 OTM = 6.6% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $13.80 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,138 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,861.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) | $29.86 | $32.28 | $0.25 | $0.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.14 OTM = 7.2% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $0.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$345 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $32.28 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $95C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) | $87.26 | $96.03 | $0.49 | $0.49 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.74 OTM = 8.9% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $0.49 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$492 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $96.03 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) | $23.13 | $26.26 | $0.12 | $0.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.87 OTM = 12.4% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,131 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $25.87 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $240C 9 Oct 2026 (9d) | $230.45 | $242.02 | $1.34 | $1.34 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.55 OTM = 4.1% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $1.34 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $242.02 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $85C 9 Oct 2026 (9d) | $71.70 | $85.75 | $0.33 | $0.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.30 OTM = 18.5% (3.9x a typical daily move). The $0.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$422 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $85.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (16d) | $344.07 | $359.26 | $5.00 | $5.00 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.93 OTM = 3.2% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $5.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (16d) | $106.43 | $112.23 | $1.09 | $1.09 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.57 OTM = 4.3% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $1.09 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (16d) | $41.00 | $55.88 | $0.22 | $0.22 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.00 OTM = 34.1% (6.1x a typical daily move). The $0.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (16d) | $41.00 | $55.88 | $0.22 | $0.22 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.00 OTM = 34.1% (6.1x a typical daily move). The $0.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (23d) | $1,074.80 | $1,284.32 | $19.02 | $19.02 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 175.20 OTM = 16.3% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $19.02 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,854 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,284.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (23d) | $119.64 | $162.09 | $0.99 | $0.99 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 40.36 OTM = 33.7% (6.6x a typical daily move). The $0.99 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,019 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $162.09 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (30d) | $188.79 | $245.47 | $3.88 | $3.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 51.21 OTM = 27.1% (5.9x a typical daily move). The $3.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,548 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $245.47 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (51d) | $156.56 | $180.96 | $11.68 | $11.68 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.44 OTM = 8.6% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $11.68 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (51d) | $156.56 | $180.95 | $11.68 | $11.68 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.44 OTM = 8.6% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $11.68 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (51d) | $187.34 | $224.53 | $5.33 | $5.33 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.66 OTM = 17.4% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $5.33 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (51d) | $1,074.80 | $1,376.43 | $25.57 | $25.57 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 275.20 OTM = 25.6% (6.5x a typical daily move). The $25.57 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,188 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,376.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (79d) | $383.42 | $419.00 | $6.80 | $6.80 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 29.58 OTM = 7.7% (5.5x a typical daily move). The $6.80 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,949 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $419.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (79d) | $188.79 | $278.82 | $6.10 | $6.10 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 81.21 OTM = 43.0% (9.8x a typical daily move). The $6.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,020 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $278.82 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $26.90 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $26.90 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 26.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $26.90 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 59.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $13.10 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.8% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $32.41 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.3% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $47.84 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $11.78 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 29.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $11.78 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 71.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $334.64 | 5x $360C 5 Oct 2026 (5d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $258C 30 Sep 2026 (0d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $335C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (79d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $240C 30 Oct 2026 (30d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $95C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (79d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $350C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $350C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (16d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $350C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $350C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (16d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 (23d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (16d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (16d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (51d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (51d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1350C 20 Nov 2026 (51d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (23d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $240C 9 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (51d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $85C 9 Oct 2026 (9d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1850C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (2d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 207 | 56% | 61% | +5pp |
| 60-70% | 381 | 64% | 61% | -3pp |
| 70-80% | 519 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 682 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 1125 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2914 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 12 graded weeks; last week 1.36x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 167 real buyback(s) recorded · 84 roll(s), net +$0.58/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 84 real rolls: buyback $6.69/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.58/sh (58 of 84 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.