FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 3 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 2 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 1 uncapped above water | 27 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $9,720/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $2,998/mo · plus $3,771/mo CC-safe on 2 shallow row(s) ⓘ
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $1,183,881 locked in if all 15 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
IREN-LC45 ↗⚡ER 27d -1.2% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	20	$35.36	$57.61	20 × $60 30 Oct (21d) $100 cyc · $143/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:2%hist 3%	20 × $40.50 16 Oct (7d) $320 cyc · $1,371/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13%	🎯 18 × $39 16 Oct (7d) $522 cyc · $2,237/mo 85% survhist 87% · T:31%hist 31%	18 × $38 16 Oct (7d) $810 cyc · $3,471/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:44%hist 40%	20 × $36.50 16 Oct (7d) $1,620 cyc · $6,943/mo 65% survhist 65% · T:73%hist 68%	$6,237	-$32,974 (549.6% IC)	62.9%
IREN-LC50 ↗⚡ER 27d -1.2% RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	20	$35.36	$66.17	20 × $65 16 Oct (7d) $20 cyc · $86/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3%	20 × $40.50 16 Oct (7d) $320 cyc · $1,371/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13%	🎯 18 × $39 16 Oct (7d) $522 cyc · $2,237/mo 85% survhist 87% · T:31%hist 31%	18 × $38 16 Oct (7d) $810 cyc · $3,471/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:44%hist 40%	20 × $36.50 16 Oct (7d) $1,620 cyc · $6,943/mo 65% survhist 65% · T:73%hist 68%	$4,843	-$48,377 (353.1% IC)	87.1%
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
AMD ↗⚡ER 25d -0.3% Main:1299 · Next Fri	2	$616.74	$658.80	🎯 2 × $660 16 Oct (7d) $630 cyc · $2,700/mo 86% survhist 87% · T:28%hist 24% above floor +$241 · hole 3.1mo	2 × $670 16 Oct (7d) $418 cyc · $1,791/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 13% above floor +$2,241 · hole 4.7mo	2 × $657.50 16 Oct (7d) $700 cyc · $3,000/mo 85% survhist 87% · T:31%hist 31% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 2.8mo	2 × $645 16 Oct (7d) $1,140 cyc · $4,886/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:47%hist 40% locks −$1,619 · hole 1.7mo	2 × $627.50 16 Oct (7d) $2,130 cyc · $9,129/mo 62% survhist 65% · T:78%hist 68% locks −$4,129 · hole 0.9mo	$722	+$241 whole if assigned	6.8% whole ~11 Jan on 🎯
CRCL ↗⚡ER 26d BORDERLINE 26% +0.4% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$81.20	$91.58	🎯 5 × $92 30 Oct (21d) $750 cyc · $1,071/mo 80% survhist 87% · T:41%hist 40% above floor +$209 · hole 4.8mo	5 × $91.50 16 Oct (7d) $175 cyc · $750/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 6.9mo	5 × $88 16 Oct (7d) $370 cyc · $1,586/mo 83% survhist 87% · T:36%hist 31% locks −$1,421 · hole 3.3mo	5 × $87 16 Oct (7d) $455 cyc · $1,950/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:42%hist 40% locks −$1,836 · hole 2.7mo	5 × $83 16 Oct (7d) $960 cyc · $4,114/mo 62% survhist 65% · T:79%hist 68% locks −$3,331 · hole 1.3mo	$769	+$209 whole if assigned	12.8% whole ~4 Mar on 🎯
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
MU-LC880 Main:1299	5	$1,039.40	$1,028.60 BE	+1.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 11d -0.2% Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$20.11	$35.12	—	🎯 25 × $28 30 Oct (21d)alt tenor $150 cyc · $214/mo 95% survhist 96% · T:10%hist 3%	16 × $21.50 16 Oct (7d) $432 cyc · $1,851/mo 76% survhist 83% · T:50%hist 46%	24 × $21.50 16 Oct (7d) $648 cyc · $2,777/mo 76% survhist 83% · T:50%hist 46%	23 × $20.50 16 Oct (7d) $1,288 cyc · $5,520/mo 60% survhist 68% · T:84%hist 79%	$12,305	-$17,662 (319.7% IC)	74.7%
TOTAL (5)	72	following every 🎯 $2,574 cyc · $8,460/mo		$1,500 cyc · $4,000/mo 4 of 5	$1,383 cyc · $5,499/mo	$2,546 cyc · $10,911/mo	$3,863 cyc · $16,556/mo	$7,618 cyc · $32,649/mo	$24,876	-$99,014

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$708	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$6.31/sh	+$1,261 cycle +$1,891 [+$634…+$1,503] · 91% credit	78% surv 72%	+$12,043 SAFE cap gain +$20,268
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$660	19 Oct 2026	6d left	+$0.61/sh	+$121 cycle +$751 [-$138…+$373] · 60% credit	65% surv 51%	+$1,213 SAFE cap gain +$9,438
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$661	19 Oct 2026	6d left	+$0.18/sh	+$35 cycle +$665 [-$249…+$284] · 48% credit	65% surv 52%	+$1,279 SAFE cap gain +$9,504
Max even-money escape in the band	~$733	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.36/sh	+$73 cycle +$703 [-$725…+$259] · 37% credit	83% surv 80%	+$15,875 SAFE cap gain +$24,100
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$748	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$2.38/sh	-$476 cycle +$154 [-$1,377…-$300] · 14% credit	86% surv 84%	+$18,339 SAFE cap gain +$26,564
budget: banked $630 debit $476 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$154 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,379/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $653.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $653-663.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $663.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$660.00 (1.1σ)	$630	$1,092	+$9,317	+$1,460
+2.5%	$676.50 (1.5σ)	$-2,670	$1,105	+$9,330	+$1,460
+5%	$693.00 (2.0σ)	$-5,970	$1,118	+$9,343	+$1,460

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$718	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$6.20/sh	+$1,240 cycle +$1,658 [+$686…+$1,577] · 91% credit	78% surv 72%	+$13,818 SAFE cap gain +$22,043
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$670	19 Oct 2026	6d left	+$0.42/sh	+$84 cycle +$502 [-$128…+$431] · 64% credit	65% surv 51%	+$2,971 SAFE cap gain +$11,196
Max even-money escape in the band	~$743	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.24/sh	+$48 cycle +$466 [-$713…+$375] · 44% credit	83% surv 80%	+$17,647 SAFE cap gain +$25,872
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$753	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$1.66/sh	-$332 cycle +$86 [-$1,163…-$12] · 25% credit	85% surv 82%	+$19,274 SAFE cap gain +$27,499
budget: banked $418 debit $332 (79% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,604/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $663.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $663-672.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $672.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$670.00 (1.4σ)	$418	$2,888	+$11,113	+$3,248
+2.5%	$686.75 (1.8σ)	$-2,932	$2,901	+$11,126	+$3,248
+5%	$703.50 (2.2σ)	$-6,282	$2,914	+$11,139	+$3,248

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$706	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$6.33/sh	+$1,266 cycle +$1,966 [+$614…+$1,460] · 90% credit	78% surv 72%	+$11,616 SAFE cap gain +$19,841
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$658	19 Oct 2026	6d left	+$0.65/sh	+$130 cycle +$830 [-$173…+$353] · 57% credit	65% surv 51%	+$790 SAFE cap gain +$9,015
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$658	19 Oct 2026	6d left	+$0.22/sh	+$44 cycle +$744 [-$281…+$257] · 46% credit	65% surv 52%	+$857 SAFE cap gain +$9,082
Max even-money escape in the band	~$731	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.39/sh	+$78 cycle +$778 [-$777…+$191] · 37% credit	83% surv 80%	+$15,449 SAFE cap gain +$23,674
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$751	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$3.44/sh	-$688 cycle +$12 [-$1,684…-$593] · 8% credit	87% surv 85%	+$18,698 SAFE cap gain +$26,923
budget: banked $700 debit $688 (98% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$12 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,102/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $650.92	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $651-661.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $661.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$657.50 (1.0σ)	$700	$660	+$8,885	+$1,030
+2.5%	$673.94 (1.5σ)	$-2,587	$673	+$8,898	+$1,030
+5%	$690.38 (1.9σ)	$-5,875	$686	+$8,911	+$1,030

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$693	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$6.45/sh	+$1,289 cycle +$2,429 [+$598…+$1,253] · 91% credit	78% surv 72%	+$9,569 SAFE cap gain +$17,794
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$645	19 Oct 2026	6d left	+$0.88/sh	+$175 cycle +$1,315 [-$170…+$234] · 49% credit	65% surv 51%	-$1,235 NOT cap gain +$6,990
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$646	19 Oct 2026	6d left	+$0.45/sh	+$89 cycle +$1,229 [-$282…+$135] · 38% credit	65% surv 52%	-$1,169 NOT cap gain +$7,056
Max even-money escape in the band	~$718	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.53/sh	+$105 cycle +$1,245 [-$789…-$6] · 25% credit	83% surv 80%	+$13,406 SAFE cap gain +$21,631
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$758	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$5.30/sh	-$1,060 cycle +$80 [-$2,183…-$1,200] · 1% credit	90% surv 89%	+$20,272 SAFE cap gain +$28,497
budget: banked $1,140 debit $1,060 (93% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$80 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $1,580/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $638.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $639-650.83	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $650.83	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$645.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,140	$-1,410	+$6,815	-$30
+2.5%	$661.12 (1.1σ)	$-2,085	$-1,397	+$6,828	-$1,030
+5%	$677.25 (1.6σ)	$-5,310	$-1,385	+$6,840	-$1,030

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$676	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$6.57/sh	+$1,315 cycle +$3,445 [+$386…+$996] · 88% credit	78% surv 72%	+$7,071 SAFE cap gain +$15,296
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$628	19 Oct 2026	6d left	+$1.17/sh	+$235 cycle +$2,365 [-$246…+$61] · 34% credit	65% surv 51%	-$3,700 NOT cap gain +$4,525
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$631	19 Oct 2026	6d left	+$0.11/sh	+$21 cycle +$2,151 [-$492…-$166] · 14% credit	67% surv 55%	-$3,259 NOT cap gain +$4,966
Max even-money escape in the band	~$701	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.69/sh	+$138 cycle +$2,268 [-$1,035…-$255] · 14% credit	83% surv 80%	+$10,914 SAFE cap gain +$19,139
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$751	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$6.19/sh	-$1,238 cycle +$892 [-$2,776…-$1,753]	91% surv 90%	+$19,578 SAFE cap gain +$27,803
budget: banked $2,130 debit $1,238 (58% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$892 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $1,279/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $621.23	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $621-638.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $638.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$627.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,130	$-3,934	+$4,291	+$960
+2.5%	$643.19 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,008	$-3,922	+$4,303	-$2,178
+5%	$658.88 (1.1σ)	$-4,145	$-3,909	+$4,316	-$3,540

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$92	6 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.87/sh	+$435 cycle +$1,185 [+$227…+$509] · 97% credit	67% surv 53%	+$1,486 SAFE cap gain +$6,941
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$93	6 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$155 cycle +$905 [-$110…+$203] · 55% credit	68% surv 55%	+$1,632 SAFE cap gain +$7,087
Max even-money escape in the band	~$93	6 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$155 cycle +$905 [-$110…+$203] · 55% credit	68% surv 55%	+$1,632 SAFE cap gain +$7,087
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$98	6 Nov 2026	18d left	-$1.22/sh	-$610 cycle +$140 [-$998…-$647] · 3% credit	75% surv 68%	+$3,532 SAFE cap gain +$8,987
budget: banked $750 debit $610 (81% used ≈ 2.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$140 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,587/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 11d left	3-10d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $91.08	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $91-93.73	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $93.73	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$92.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$750	$1,051	+$6,506	+$2,310
+2.5%	$94.30 (1.1σ)	$-400	$1,127	+$6,582	+$2,310
+5%	$96.60 (1.2σ)	$-1,550	$1,203	+$6,658	+$2,310

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$92	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$1.10/sh	+$551 cycle +$726 [+$480…+$809] · 99% credit	66% surv 52%	+$760 SAFE cap gain +$6,215
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$102	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.43/sh	+$216 cycle +$391 [-$42…+$442] · 71% credit	80% surv 76%	+$6,182 SAFE cap gain +$11,637
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$94	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.16/sh	+$81 cycle +$256 [-$61…+$279] · 63% credit	73% surv 64%	+$1,783 SAFE cap gain +$7,238
Max even-money escape in the band	~$103	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.25/sh	+$126 cycle +$301 [-$144…+$347] · 59% credit	81% surv 78%	+$6,626 SAFE cap gain +$12,081
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$105	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.02/sh	-$9 cycle +$166 [-$301…+$201] · 42% credit	83% surv 80%	+$7,557 SAFE cap gain +$13,012
budget: banked $175 debit $9 (5% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$166 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,379/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $90.58	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $91-92.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $92.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$91.50 (1.4σ)	$175	$210	+$5,665	+$1,485
+2.5%	$93.79 (1.8σ)	$-969	$285	+$5,740	+$1,485
+5%	$96.08 (2.1σ)	$-2,113	$361	+$5,816	+$1,485

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$88	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$1.15/sh	+$576 cycle +$946 [+$450…+$671] · 100% credit	66% surv 52%	-$884 NOT cap gain +$4,571
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$99	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.45/sh	+$225 cycle +$595 [-$122…+$253] · 60% credit	80% surv 76%	+$4,521 SAFE cap gain +$9,976
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$91	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.21/sh	+$107 cycle +$477 [-$94…+$140] · 54% credit	73% surv 64%	+$139 SAFE cap gain +$5,594
Max even-money escape in the band	~$102	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.00/sh	+$2 cycle +$372 [-$381…+$17] · 27% credit	84% surv 81%	+$5,897 SAFE cap gain +$11,352
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$105	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.65/sh	-$327 cycle +$43 [-$723…-$314] · 6% credit	90% surv 89%	+$7,167 SAFE cap gain +$12,622
budget: banked $370 debit $327 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$43 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $927/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $87.12	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $87-88.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $88.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$88.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$370	$-1,461	+$3,994	-$70
+2.5%	$90.20 (1.3σ)	$-730	$-1,388	+$4,067	-$70
+5%	$92.40 (1.6σ)	$-1,830	$-1,315	+$4,140	-$70

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$87	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$1.17/sh	+$583 cycle +$1,038 [+$429…+$672] · 99% credit	66% surv 52%	-$1,326 NOT cap gain +$4,129
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$97	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.76/sh	+$381 cycle +$836 [+$13…+$397] · 76% credit	80% surv 75%	+$3,696 SAFE cap gain +$9,151
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$90	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.23/sh	+$114 cycle +$569 [-$119…+$140] · 51% credit	73% surv 64%	-$302 NOT cap gain +$5,153
Max even-money escape in the band	~$101	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.01/sh	+$4 cycle +$459 [-$431…+$4] · 25% credit	84% surv 81%	+$5,451 SAFE cap gain +$10,906
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.64/sh	-$321 cycle +$134 [-$768…-$324] · 5% credit	90% surv 89%	+$6,725 SAFE cap gain +$12,180
budget: banked $455 debit $321 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$134 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $920/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $86.13	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $86-87.95	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $87.95	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$87.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$455	$-1,909	+$3,546	-$485
+2.5%	$89.17 (1.1σ)	$-632	$-1,837	+$3,618	-$485
+5%	$91.35 (1.4σ)	$-1,720	$-1,765	+$3,690	-$485

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$83	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$1.21/sh	+$607 cycle +$1,567 [+$400…+$532] · 99% credit	66% surv 52%	-$2,929 NOT cap gain +$2,526
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$93	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.76/sh	+$381 cycle +$1,341 [-$75…+$219] · 67% credit	80% surv 75%	+$2,069 SAFE cap gain +$7,524
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$86	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.28/sh	+$138 cycle +$1,098 [-$152…+$35] · 34% credit	73% surv 64%	-$1,905 NOT cap gain +$3,550
Max even-money escape in the band	~$97	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.02/sh	+$10 cycle +$970 [-$522…-$178] · 12% credit	84% surv 81%	+$3,830 SAFE cap gain +$9,285
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$100	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.60/sh	-$299 cycle +$661 [-$842…-$492] · 3% credit	91% surv 89%	+$5,120 SAFE cap gain +$10,575
budget: banked $960 debit $299 (31% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$661 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $887/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $82.17	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $82-85.03	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $85.03	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 28 active short call(s) 4 watch · 2 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

SNDK

Neville:0865

1x $1660C 9 Oct 2026 (0d)

$1,620.82

$1,667.01

$3.75

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMZN

Joint:1782

5x $262.5C 14 Oct 2026 (5d)
locks $4,006 if assigned (floor $270.51)

$258.31

$263.57

$1.47

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)

$349.07

$357.01

$3.38

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)

$349.07

$359.26

$3.38

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

APP

RetireInc:7291

1x $300C 9 Oct 2026 (0d)
locks $37,516 if assigned (floor $675.16)

$280.21

$301.91

$0.05

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

RKLB

RetireInc:7291

6x $90C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)
locks $34,383 if assigned (floor $147.30)

$67.45

$90.54

$0.03

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COPX

Joint:1782

20x $89C 9 Oct 2026 (0d)
locks $13,776 if assigned (floor $95.89)

$85.10

$89.65

expiring OTM, penny buyback at the close, then re-sell

GLXY

Main:1299

100x $23C 9 Oct 2026 (0d)
locks $121,247 if assigned (floor $35.12)

$20.07

$23.10

$0.07

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $114C 14 Oct 2026 (5d)
locks $2,156 if assigned (floor $118.31)

$106.69

$114.95

$0.65

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPY

Neville:0865

12x $785C 15 Oct 2026 (6d)

$775.98

$785.57

$0.82

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC340

Neville:0865

5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)
locks $13,712 if assigned (floor $387.42)

$349.07

$362.52

$2.02

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AAPL

RetireInc:7291

5x $350C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)

$332.96

$350.81

$0.36

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1150C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)
locks $14,227 if assigned (floor $1,221.13)

$1,039.40

$1,160.10

$2.74

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

HIMS

Main:1299

15x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)

$29.09

$33.01

$0.32

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

HOOD

Joint:1782

10x $120C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)

$106.80

$120.58

$0.29

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $115C 23 Oct 2026 (14d)

$110.64

$116.22

$1.23

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Main:1299

10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (14d)

$231.38

$252.15

$0.55

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC500

Main:1299

25x $200C 23 Oct 2026 (14d)
locks $863,465 if assigned (floor $545.39)

$172.54

$202.48

$1.27

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 (14d)
locks $18,123 if assigned (floor $136.25)

$82.63

$101.78

$0.45

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

Main:1299

3x $650C 30 Oct 2026 (21d)

$576.85

$663.52

$9.62

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $195C 30 Oct 2026 (21d)

$164.47

$196.56

$0.79

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $205C 13 Nov 2026 (35d)
locks $6,816 if assigned (floor $213.52)

$172.54

$210.12

$4.87

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (42d)

$150.81

$180.96

$7.03

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (42d)
locks $2,513 if assigned (floor $225.03)

$172.41

$224.53

$1.60

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1299

Main:1299

20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (42d)
locks $852 if assigned (floor $49.43)

$35.27

$50.52

$0.80

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1782

Joint:1782

20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (42d)
locks $852 if assigned (floor $49.43)

$35.27

$50.52

$0.80

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $409C 18 Dec 2026 (70d)
locks $50,237 if assigned (floor $459.24)

$383.51

$414.20

$6.42

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $200C 15 Jan 2027 (98d)

$150.81

$211.95

$7.72

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$23.86	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.2% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$23.86	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 34.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$23.86	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 63.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$10.39	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.9% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$32.43	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.2% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$46.67	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.9% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$9.63	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$9.63	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 76.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 27 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AAPL	RetireInc:7291	5	$334.64	5x $350C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)
AMZN	Joint:1782	5	$267.92	5x $262C 14 Oct 2026 (5d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $300C 9 Oct 2026 (0d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $205C 13 Nov 2026 (35d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $200C 23 Oct 2026 (14d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $89C 9 Oct 2026 (0d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 (14d)
DELL	Main:1299	3	$562.50	3x $650C 30 Oct 2026 (21d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $409C 18 Dec 2026 (70d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (7d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $32C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)
HOOD	Joint:1782	10	$114.95	10x $120C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $115C 23 Oct 2026 (14d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $114C 14 Oct 2026 (5d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (42d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (42d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (42d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $200C 15 Jan 2027 (98d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1150C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)
NVDA	Main:1299	10	$264.80	10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (14d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (42d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $90C 16 Oct 2026 (7d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1660C 9 Oct 2026 (0d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $195C 30 Oct 2026 (21d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $785C 15 Oct 2026 (6d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2997 of 3149 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	208	56%	61%	+5pp
60-70%	392	64%	62%	-2pp
70-80%	527	76%	82%	+6pp
80-90%	711	84%	85%	+0pp
90-100%	1159	94%	96%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 37% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2997 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.08x (W40) to 1.59x (W34) over 13 graded weeks; last week 0.08x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 211 real buyback(s) recorded · 121 roll(s), net +$0.67/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 121 real rolls: buyback $5.54/sh, replacement credit financed 112% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.67/sh (84 of 121 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-10-09 21:46

Gross FIGHT income	$2,700/mo
vs 50% target ($4,489/mo)	-40%
vs normal income ($8,979/mo)	30% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,978/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($47,840)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($63,840)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-8,240

Gross FIGHT income	$1,791/mo
vs 50% target ($4,489/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($8,979/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,069/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($47,840)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($63,840)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-8,239

Gross FIGHT income	$3,000/mo
vs 50% target ($4,489/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($8,979/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,278/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$4,886/mo
vs 50% target ($4,489/mo)	+9%
vs normal income ($8,979/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,163/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,619
… as % of IC ($47,840)	3.4%
… as % of ML ($63,840)	2.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-8,250

Gross FIGHT income	$9,129/mo
vs 50% target ($4,489/mo)	+103%
vs normal income ($8,979/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,406/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,129
… as % of IC ($47,840)	8.6%
… as % of ML ($63,840)	6.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-8,265

Gross FIGHT income	$1,071/mo
vs 50% target ($1,929/mo)	-44%
vs normal income ($3,857/mo)	28% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,013/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($21,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($33,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-5,570

Gross FIGHT income	$750/mo
vs 50% target ($1,929/mo)	-61%
vs normal income ($3,857/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$692/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$1,586/mo
vs 50% target ($1,929/mo)	-18%
vs normal income ($3,857/mo)	41% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,528/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,421
… as % of IC ($21,000)	6.8%
… as % of ML ($33,500)	4.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-5,485

Gross FIGHT income	$1,950/mo
vs 50% target ($1,929/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($3,857/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,892/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,836
… as % of IC ($21,000)	8.7%
… as % of ML ($33,500)	5.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-5,477

Gross FIGHT income	$4,114/mo
vs 50% target ($1,929/mo)	+113%
vs normal income ($3,857/mo)	107% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,056/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,331
… as % of IC ($21,000)	15.9%
… as % of ML ($33,500)	9.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-5,510

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$83.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$960	$-3,536	+$1,919	+$20
+2.5%	$85.07 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-77	$-3,467	+$1,988	-$1,017
+5%	$87.15 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,115	$-3,399	+$2,056	-$1,980

Gross FIGHT income	$214/mo
vs 50% target ($2,732/mo)	-92%
vs normal income ($5,464/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$214/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$17,662
… as % of IC ($5,525)	319.7%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	31.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.2 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-31,550

Spot \ Time	≥ 11d left	3-10d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $27.72	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $28-28.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $28.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$28.00 (2.0σ)	$150	$-15,582	+$15,693	+$125
+2.5%	$28.70 (2.2σ)	$-1,600	$-15,953	+$15,322	-$1,625
+5%	$29.40 (2.4σ)	$-3,350	$-16,324	+$14,951	-$3,375
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (5.0σ)	$-29,125	$-21,788	+$9,487	-$4,875

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (16 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$22	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.50/sh	+$801 cycle +$1,233 [+$428…+$814] · 96% credit	71% surv 61%	-$25,541 NOT cap gain +$5,734
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.24/sh	+$379 cycle +$811 [+$98…+$402] · 87% credit	66% surv 53%	-$27,717 NOT cap gain +$3,558
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$22	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.07/sh	+$116 cycle +$548 [-$219…+$106] · 38% credit	69% surv 58%	-$27,211 NOT cap gain +$4,064
Max even-money escape in the band	~$24	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.00/sh	+$7 cycle +$439 [-$468…-$37] · 23% credit	79% surv 75%	-$22,396 NOT cap gain +$8,879
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$25	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.26/sh	-$412 cycle +$20 [-$981…-$484] · 5% credit	83% surv 80%	-$20,844 NOT cap gain +$10,431
budget: banked $432 debit $412 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $1,106/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$1,851/mo
vs 50% target ($2,732/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($5,464/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,864/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,368
… as % of IC ($5,525)	386.7%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	38.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.9 mo
Surgical close (16 ct)	$-20,160

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $21.29	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $21-21.86	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $21.86	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$21.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$432	$-28,096	+$3,179	+$416
+2.5%	$22.04 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-428	$-27,897	+$3,378	-$444
+5%	$22.57 (1.1σ)	$-1,288	$-27,698	+$3,577	-$1,304
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (8.7σ)	$-28,704	$-30,097	+$1,178	-$13,184

Gross FIGHT income	$2,777/mo
vs 50% target ($2,732/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($5,464/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,779/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$32,051
… as % of IC ($5,525)	580.1%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	57.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.9 mo
Surgical close (24 ct)	$-30,240

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$21.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$648	$-27,888	+$3,387	+$624
+2.5%	$22.04 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-642	$-28,119	+$3,156	-$666
+5%	$22.57 (1.1σ)	$-1,932	$-28,350	+$2,925	-$1,956
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (8.7σ)	$-43,056	$-36,689	-$5,414	-$19,776

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (23 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$21	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.44/sh	+$1,023 cycle +$2,311 [+$278…+$717] · 88% credit	71% surv 62%	-$26,440 NOT cap gain +$4,835
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$20	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.22/sh	+$505 cycle +$1,793 [-$52…+$277] · 69% credit	66% surv 53%	-$28,712 NOT cap gain +$2,563
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$21	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.06/sh	+$131 cycle +$1,419 [-$518…-$139] · 15% credit	69% surv 58%	-$28,317 NOT cap gain +$2,958
Max even-money escape in the band	~$21	30 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.06/sh	+$146 cycle +$1,434 [-$715…-$206] · 14% credit	70% surv 63%	-$27,317 NOT cap gain +$3,958
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$25	6 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.50/sh	-$1,144 cycle +$144 [-$2,467…-$1,641]	87% surv 86%	-$20,727 NOT cap gain +$10,548
budget: banked $1,288 debit $1,144 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$144 cash · rolled 23 ct earn ≈ $724/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$5,520/mo
vs 50% target ($2,732/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($5,464/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,523/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$32,349
… as % of IC ($5,525)	585.5%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	58.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.9 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-28,992

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $20.29	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $20-21.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $21.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.