FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

6 fortress slices across 2 account(s) | 0 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 6 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 0 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $0/mo · plus $63,465/mo CC-safe on 6 shallow row(s) ⓘ

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
BMNR ↗ ⚐⚡ER 18dMAX 62 -1.9% Neville:0865 · This Fri	250	$19.80	$20.83	🎯 62 × $21.50 6 Nov (4d) $1,550 cyc · $11,625/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:41%hist 40% above floor +$4,134 · hole 2.2mo	62 × $23 6 Nov (4d) $496 cyc · $3,720/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 13% above floor +$13,434 · hole 6.9mo	62 × $22 6 Nov (4d) $1,116 cyc · $8,370/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 22% above floor +$7,234 · hole 3.1mo	🎯 62 × $21.50 6 Nov (4d) $1,550 cyc · $11,625/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:41%hist 40% above floor +$4,134 · hole 2.2mo	62 × $20.50 6 Nov (4d) $3,224 cyc · $24,180/mo 65% survhist 66% · T:73%hist 67% locks −$0 · hole 1.1mo	-	+$4,134 whole if assigned	5.2% whole ~8 Jan on 🎯
SPY-LC735 ↗ ⚐ -0.0% Joint:1782 · This Fri	12	$755.48	$764.19	🎯 12 × $768 6 Nov (4d) $2,088 cyc · $15,660/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 31% above floor +$4,576 · hole 0.7mo	12 × $774 6 Nov (4d) $720 cyc · $5,400/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% above floor +$11,776 · hole 1.9mo	12 × $771 6 Nov (4d) $1,272 cyc · $9,540/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:28%hist 22% above floor +$8,176 · hole 1.1mo	🎯 12 × $768 6 Nov (4d) $2,088 cyc · $15,660/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 31% above floor +$4,576 · hole 0.7mo	12 × $763 6 Nov (4d) $4,056 cyc · $30,420/mo 69% survhist 66% · T:63%hist 55% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 0.3mo	-	+$4,576 whole if assigned	1.2% whole ~23 Nov on 🎯
SPY-STK-1782 ↗ ⚐ -0.0% Joint:1782 · This Fri	4	$755.48	$762.42	🎯 4 × $768 6 Nov (4d) $696 cyc · $5,220/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 31% above floor +$2,232 · hole 0.5mo	4 × $774 6 Nov (4d) $240 cyc · $1,800/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% above floor +$4,632 · hole 1.5mo	4 × $771 6 Nov (4d) $424 cyc · $3,180/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:28%hist 22% above floor +$3,432 · hole 0.9mo	🎯 4 × $768 6 Nov (4d) $696 cyc · $5,220/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 31% above floor +$2,232 · hole 0.5mo	4 × $763 6 Nov (4d) $1,352 cyc · $10,140/mo 69% survhist 66% · T:63%hist 55% above floor +$232 · hole 0.3mo	-	+$2,232 whole if assigned	0.9% whole ~19 Nov on 🎯
MARA ↗ ⚐⚡ER 7dMAX 125 ▼ DOWN -4.4% Neville:0865 · This Fri	500	$6.47	$6.80	🎯 125 × $7.50 6 Nov (4d) $1,125 cyc · $8,438/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 31% above floor +$8,781 · hole 1.9mo	125 × $8.50 13 Nov (11d)alt tenor⚡ $1,125 cyc · $3,068/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% above floor +$21,281 · hole 5.3mo	🎯 125 × $7.50 6 Nov (4d) $1,125 cyc · $8,438/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 31% above floor +$8,781 · hole 1.9mo	125 × $7 6 Nov (4d) $2,500 cyc · $18,750/mo 72% survhist 83% · T:58%hist 45% above floor +$2,531 · hole 0.9mo	125 × $6.50 6 Nov (4d) $4,625 cyc · $34,688/mo 54% survhist 69% · T:97%hist 89% locks −$0 · hole 0.5mo	-	+$8,781 whole if assigned	5.1% whole ~31 Dec on 🎯
QQQ-LC675 ↗ ⚐ ▼ DOWN -0.7% Joint:1782 · This Fri	8	$685.78	$700.07	🎯 8 × $707 6 Nov (4d) $2,184 cyc · $16,380/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 31% above floor +$5,545 · hole 0.7mo	8 × $717 6 Nov (4d) $896 cyc · $6,720/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% above floor +$13,545 · hole 1.7mo	8 × $714 6 Nov (4d) $1,184 cyc · $8,880/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:24%hist 22% above floor +$11,145 · hole 1.3mo	8 × $709 6 Nov (4d) $1,848 cyc · $13,860/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 31% above floor +$7,145 · hole 0.8mo	8 × $700 6 Nov (4d) $3,720 cyc · $27,900/mo 72% survhist 83% · T:57%hist 45% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 0.4mo	-	+$5,545 whole if assigned	2.1% whole ~24 Nov on 🎯
QQQ-STK-1782 ↗ ⚐ ▼ DOWN -0.7% Joint:1782 · This Fri	3	$685.78	$697.76	🎯 3 × $707 6 Nov (4d) $819 cyc · $6,143/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 31% above floor +$2,772 · hole 0.6mo	3 × $717 6 Nov (4d) $336 cyc · $2,520/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% above floor +$5,772 · hole 1.4mo	3 × $714 6 Nov (4d) $444 cyc · $3,330/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:24%hist 22% above floor +$4,872 · hole 1.1mo	3 × $709 6 Nov (4d) $693 cyc · $5,198/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 31% above floor +$3,372 · hole 0.7mo	3 × $700 6 Nov (4d) $1,395 cyc · $10,462/mo 72% survhist 83% · T:57%hist 45% above floor +$672 · hole 0.3mo	-	+$2,772 whole if assigned	1.7% whole ~20 Nov on 🎯
TOTAL (6)	777	following every 🎯 $8,462 cyc · $63,465/mo		$8,462 cyc · $63,465/mo	$3,813 cyc · $23,228/mo	$5,565 cyc · $41,738/mo	$9,375 cyc · $70,312/mo	$18,372 cyc · $137,790/mo	-	-$0

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (62 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.42/sh	+$2,582 cycle +$4,132 [+$1,851…+$3,122] · 99% credit	67% surv 53%	+$13,655 SAFE cap gain +$25,655
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$23	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.42/sh	+$2,606 cycle +$4,156 [+$1,132…+$2,851] · 91% credit	74% surv 65%	+$28,739 SAFE cap gain +$40,739
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$22	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.09/sh	+$577 cycle +$2,127 [-$673…+$707] · 49% credit	72% surv 62%	+$20,435 SAFE cap gain +$32,435
Max even-money escape in the band	~$24	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.12/sh	+$731 cycle +$2,281 [-$1,200…+$708] · 44% credit	78% surv 73%	+$39,414 SAFE cap gain +$51,414
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$25	27 Nov 2026	23d left	-$0.13/sh	-$822 cycle +$728 [-$3,238…-$943] · 10% credit	83% surv 80%	+$50,411 SAFE cap gain +$62,411
budget: banked $1,550 debit $822 (53% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$728 cash · rolled 62 ct earn ≈ $4,514/mo while parked; 188 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $21.29	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $21-21.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $21.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$21.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,550	$11,073	+$23,073	+$1,488
+2.5%	$22.04 (1.3σ)	$-1,782	$14,486	+$26,486	-$1,844
+5%	$22.57 (1.6σ)	$-5,115	$17,899	+$29,899	-$5,177
SS (= V-bounce)	$45.53 (14.5σ)	$-147,436	$59,699	+$71,699	-$113,212

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (62 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$23	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.40/sh	+$2,492 cycle +$2,988 [+$2,222…+$3,374] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%	+$31,336 SAFE cap gain +$43,336
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$24	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.41/sh	+$2,552 cycle +$3,048 [+$1,479…+$3,433] · 91% credit	73% surv 64%	+$46,456 SAFE cap gain +$58,456
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$24	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.08/sh	+$468 cycle +$964 [-$437…+$1,196] · 60% credit	72% surv 62%	+$38,097 SAFE cap gain +$50,097
Max even-money escape in the band	~$25	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.10/sh	+$648 cycle +$1,144 [-$869…+$1,429] · 56% credit	78% surv 72%	+$57,102 SAFE cap gain +$69,102
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $22.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $23-23.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $23.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$23.00 (1.8σ)	$496	$28,844	+$40,844	+$434
+2.5%	$23.57 (2.1σ)	$-3,069	$32,495	+$44,495	-$3,131
+5%	$24.15 (2.5σ)	$-6,634	$36,147	+$48,146	-$6,696
SS (= V-bounce)	$45.53 (14.5σ)	$-139,190	$67,945	+$79,945	-$104,966

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (62 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.41/sh	+$2,556 cycle +$3,672 [+$1,941…+$3,331] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	+$19,470 SAFE cap gain +$31,470
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$23	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.42/sh	+$2,593 cycle +$3,709 [+$1,388…+$3,281] · 94% credit	74% surv 65%	+$34,567 SAFE cap gain +$46,567
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$23	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.09/sh	+$545 cycle +$1,661 [-$472…+$1,083] · 59% credit	72% surv 62%	+$26,244 SAFE cap gain +$38,244
Max even-money escape in the band	~$24	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.11/sh	+$709 cycle +$1,825 [-$801…+$1,227] · 54% credit	78% surv 73%	+$45,233 SAFE cap gain +$57,233
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$25	27 Nov 2026	23d left	-$0.14/sh	-$858 cycle +$258 [-$2,743…-$486] · 15% credit	83% surv 79%	+$56,216 SAFE cap gain +$68,216
budget: banked $1,116 debit $858 (77% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$258 cash · rolled 62 ct earn ≈ $4,596/mo while parked; 188 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $21.78	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $22-22.18	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $22.18	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$22.00 (1.2σ)	$1,116	$16,914	+$28,914	+$1,054
+2.5%	$22.55 (1.5σ)	$-2,294	$20,406	+$32,406	-$2,356
+5%	$23.10 (1.9σ)	$-5,704	$23,899	+$35,899	-$5,766
SS (= V-bounce)	$45.53 (14.5σ)	$-144,770	$62,365	+$74,365	-$110,546

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (62 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.42/sh	+$2,582 cycle +$4,132 [+$1,851…+$3,122] · 99% credit	67% surv 53%	+$13,655 SAFE cap gain +$25,655
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$23	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.42/sh	+$2,606 cycle +$4,156 [+$1,132…+$2,851] · 91% credit	74% surv 65%	+$28,739 SAFE cap gain +$40,739
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$22	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.09/sh	+$577 cycle +$2,127 [-$673…+$707] · 49% credit	72% surv 62%	+$20,435 SAFE cap gain +$32,435
Max even-money escape in the band	~$24	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.12/sh	+$731 cycle +$2,281 [-$1,200…+$708] · 44% credit	78% surv 73%	+$39,414 SAFE cap gain +$51,414
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$25	27 Nov 2026	23d left	-$0.13/sh	-$822 cycle +$728 [-$3,238…-$943] · 10% credit	83% surv 80%	+$50,411 SAFE cap gain +$62,411
budget: banked $1,550 debit $822 (53% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$728 cash · rolled 62 ct earn ≈ $4,514/mo while parked; 188 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $21.29	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $21-21.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $21.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$21.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,550	$11,073	+$23,073	+$1,488
+2.5%	$22.04 (1.3σ)	$-1,782	$14,486	+$26,486	-$1,844
+5%	$22.57 (1.6σ)	$-5,115	$17,899	+$29,899	-$5,177
SS (= V-bounce)	$45.53 (14.5σ)	$-147,436	$59,699	+$71,699	-$113,212

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (62 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$20	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.42/sh	+$2,622 cycle +$5,846 [+$1,686…+$2,564] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%	+$2,819 SAFE cap gain +$14,819
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$22	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.42/sh	+$2,612 cycle +$5,836 [+$779…+$2,328] · 87% credit	74% surv 65%	+$17,869 SAFE cap gain +$29,869
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$21	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.10/sh	+$631 cycle +$3,855 [-$888…+$380] · 38% credit	72% surv 63%	+$9,613 SAFE cap gain +$21,613
Max even-money escape in the band	~$23	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.12/sh	+$761 cycle +$3,985 [-$1,547…+$311] · 31% credit	79% surv 73%	+$28,568 SAFE cap gain +$40,568
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$26	27 Nov 2026	23d left	-$0.39/sh	-$2,446 cycle +$778 [-$5,917…-$3,269]	90% surv 89%	+$63,011 SAFE cap gain +$75,011
budget: banked $3,224 debit $2,446 (76% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$778 cash · rolled 62 ct earn ≈ $2,136/mo while parked; 188 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $20.29	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $20-21.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $21.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$20.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,224	$197	+$12,197	+$3,162
+2.5%	$21.01 (≤1σ, normal week)	$47	$3,451	+$15,451	-$15
+5%	$21.53 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-3,131	$6,706	+$18,706	-$3,193
SS (= V-bounce)	$45.53 (14.5σ)	$-151,962	$55,173	+$67,173	-$117,738

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$768	9 Nov 2026	5d left	+$1.40/sh	+$1,677 cycle +$3,765 [+$1,696…+$2,775] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$7,682 SAFE cap gain +$14,342
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$779	30 Nov 2026	26d left	+$2.72/sh	+$3,265 cycle +$5,353 [+$1,463…+$3,744] · 91% credit	74% surv 65%	+$18,157 SAFE cap gain +$24,817
Max even-money escape in the band	~$785	30 Nov 2026	26d left	+$0.14/sh	+$169 cycle +$2,257 [-$2,209…+$232] · 29% credit	79% surv 73%	+$20,130 SAFE cap gain +$26,790
SS $869 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$790	30 Nov 2026	26d left	-$1.53/sh	-$1,832 cycle +$256 [-$4,694…-$1,917] · 6% credit	83% surv 80%	+$22,353 SAFE cap gain +$29,013
budget: banked $2,088 debit $1,832 (88% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$256 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,948/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $760.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $760-769.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $769.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$768.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,088	$6,005	+$12,665	+$2,076
+2.5%	$787.20 (2.5σ)	$-20,952	$-815	+$5,845	-$20,964
+5%	$806.40 (4.0σ)	$-43,992	$-7,635	-$975	-$44,004
SS (= V-bounce)	$869.30 (8.9σ)	$-119,472	$-29,977	-$23,317	-$114,324

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$774	9 Nov 2026	5d left	+$1.27/sh	+$1,529 cycle +$2,249 [+$1,851…+$2,779] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$11,235 SAFE cap gain +$17,895
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$785	30 Nov 2026	26d left	+$2.50/sh	+$3,003 cycle +$3,723 [+$1,531…+$4,104] · 89% credit	74% surv 65%	+$21,596 SAFE cap gain +$28,256
Max even-money escape in the band	~$790	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.07/sh	+$82 cycle +$802 [-$2,164…+$873] · 38% credit	76% surv 71%	+$22,899 SAFE cap gain +$29,559
SS $869 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$792	30 Nov 2026	26d left	-$0.43/sh	-$513 cycle +$207 [-$2,669…+$323] · 30% credit	80% surv 75%	+$23,994 SAFE cap gain +$30,654
budget: banked $720 debit $513 (71% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$207 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,526/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $766.26	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $766-774.61	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $774.61	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$774.00 (1.4σ)	$720	$9,706	+$16,366	+$708
+2.5%	$793.35 (3.0σ)	$-22,500	$2,833	+$9,493	-$22,512
+5%	$812.70 (4.5σ)	$-45,720	$-4,041	+$2,619	-$45,732
SS (= V-bounce)	$869.30 (8.9σ)	$-113,640	$-24,145	-$17,485	-$108,492

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$771	9 Nov 2026	5d left	+$1.34/sh	+$1,603 cycle +$2,875 [+$1,741…+$2,750] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$9,327 SAFE cap gain +$15,987
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$782	30 Nov 2026	26d left	+$2.61/sh	+$3,134 cycle +$4,406 [+$1,313…+$3,934] · 87% credit	74% surv 65%	+$19,745 SAFE cap gain +$26,405
Max even-money escape in the band	~$788	30 Nov 2026	26d left	+$0.04/sh	+$45 cycle +$1,317 [-$2,431…+$565] · 31% credit	79% surv 73%	+$21,725 SAFE cap gain +$28,385
SS $869 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$790	27 Nov 2026	23d left	-$1.02/sh	-$1,226 cycle +$46 [-$3,992…-$839] · 13% credit	81% surv 77%	+$22,143 SAFE cap gain +$28,803
budget: banked $1,272 debit $1,226 (96% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,415/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $763.29	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $763-772.07	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $772.07	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$771.00 (1.2σ)	$1,272	$7,723	+$14,383	+$1,260
+2.5%	$790.27 (2.7σ)	$-21,858	$877	+$7,537	-$21,870
+5%	$809.55 (4.2σ)	$-44,988	$-5,970	+$690	-$45,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$869.30 (8.9σ)	$-116,688	$-27,193	-$20,533	-$111,540

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$768	9 Nov 2026	5d left	+$1.40/sh	+$1,677 cycle +$3,765 [+$1,696…+$2,775] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$7,682 SAFE cap gain +$14,342
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$779	30 Nov 2026	26d left	+$2.72/sh	+$3,265 cycle +$5,353 [+$1,463…+$3,744] · 91% credit	74% surv 65%	+$18,157 SAFE cap gain +$24,817
Max even-money escape in the band	~$785	30 Nov 2026	26d left	+$0.14/sh	+$169 cycle +$2,257 [-$2,209…+$232] · 29% credit	79% surv 73%	+$20,130 SAFE cap gain +$26,790
SS $869 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$790	30 Nov 2026	26d left	-$1.53/sh	-$1,832 cycle +$256 [-$4,694…-$1,917] · 6% credit	83% surv 80%	+$22,353 SAFE cap gain +$29,013
budget: banked $2,088 debit $1,832 (88% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$256 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,948/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $760.32	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $760-769.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $769.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$768.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,088	$6,005	+$12,665	+$2,076
+2.5%	$787.20 (2.5σ)	$-20,952	$-815	+$5,845	-$20,964
+5%	$806.40 (4.0σ)	$-43,992	$-7,635	-$975	-$44,004
SS (= V-bounce)	$869.30 (8.9σ)	$-119,472	$-29,977	-$23,317	-$114,324

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$763	9 Nov 2026	5d left	+$1.50/sh	+$1,798 cycle +$5,854 [+$1,479…+$2,828] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$5,547 SAFE cap gain +$12,207
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$774	30 Nov 2026	26d left	+$2.90/sh	+$3,480 cycle +$7,536 [+$1,062…+$3,255] · 89% credit	74% surv 65%	+$16,116 SAFE cap gain +$22,776
Max even-money escape in the band	~$780	30 Nov 2026	26d left	+$0.31/sh	+$373 cycle +$4,429 [-$2,692…-$68] · 24% credit	79% surv 73%	+$18,078 SAFE cap gain +$24,738
SS $869 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$794	30 Nov 2026	26d left	-$3.38/sh	-$4,052 cycle +$4 [-$8,557…-$4,986]	90% surv 89%	+$25,481 SAFE cap gain +$32,141
budget: banked $4,056 debit $4,052 (100% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,342/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $755.37	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $755-766.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $766.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

📏 CALIBRATION: 3551 of 3697 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	241	56%	66%	+10pp
60-70%	457	64%	65%	+1pp
70-80%	606	76%	83%	+7pp
80-90%	841	84%	87%	+2pp
90-100%	1406	94%	96%	+2pp

Touch odds: predicted 37% avg vs realized 32% touch rate over 3551 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.23x (W42) to 1.59x (W34) over 17 graded weeks; last week 0.80x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 354 real buyback(s) recorded · 230 roll(s), net +$0.88/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 230 real rolls: buyback $3.96/sh, replacement credit financed 122% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.88/sh (182 of 230 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-11-03 04:10

Gross FIGHT income	$11,625/mo
vs 50% target ($36,477/mo)	-68%
vs normal income ($72,955/mo)	16% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,625/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($138,250)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($138,250)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (62 ct)	$-3,069

Gross FIGHT income	$3,720/mo
vs 50% target ($36,477/mo)	-90%
vs normal income ($72,955/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,720/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($138,250)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($138,250)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (62 ct)	$-3,007

Gross FIGHT income	$8,370/mo
vs 50% target ($36,477/mo)	-77%
vs normal income ($72,955/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,370/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$24,180/mo
vs 50% target ($36,477/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($72,955/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$24,180/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$15,660/mo
vs 50% target ($13,616/mo)	+15%
vs normal income ($27,231/mo)	58% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,660/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($161,160)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($161,160)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$-6,672

Gross FIGHT income	$5,400/mo
vs 50% target ($13,616/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($27,231/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,400/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$9,540/mo
vs 50% target ($13,616/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($27,231/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,540/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$30,420/mo
vs 50% target ($13,616/mo)	+123%
vs normal income ($27,231/mo)	112% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$30,420/mo

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$763.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,056	$3,749	+$10,409	+$4,044
+2.5%	$782.07 (2.1σ)	$-18,834	$-3,027	+$3,633	-$18,846
+5%	$801.15 (3.6σ)	$-41,724	$-9,802	-$3,142	-$41,736
SS (= V-bounce)	$869.30 (8.9σ)	$-123,504	$-34,009	-$27,349	-$118,356

Gross FIGHT income	$5,220/mo
vs 50% target ($4,539/mo)	+15%
vs normal income ($9,077/mo)	58% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,220/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($305,020)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($305,020)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-2,780

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$768.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$696	$2,928	+$5,704	+$264
+2.5%	$787.20 (2.5σ)	$-6,984	$2,928	+$5,704	+$264
+5%	$806.40 (4.0σ)	$-14,664	$2,928	+$5,704	+$264

Gross FIGHT income	$1,800/mo
vs 50% target ($4,539/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($9,077/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,800/mo

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$774.00 (1.4σ)	$240	$4,872	+$7,648	+$2,208
+2.5%	$793.35 (3.0σ)	$-7,500	$4,872	+$7,648	+$2,208
+5%	$812.70 (4.5σ)	$-15,240	$4,872	+$7,648	+$2,208

Gross FIGHT income	$3,180/mo
vs 50% target ($4,539/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($9,077/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,180/mo

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$771.00 (1.2σ)	$424	$3,856	+$6,632	+$1,192
+2.5%	$790.27 (2.7σ)	$-7,286	$3,856	+$6,632	+$1,192
+5%	$809.55 (4.2σ)	$-14,996	$3,856	+$6,632	+$1,192

Gross FIGHT income	$10,140/mo
vs 50% target ($4,539/mo)	+123%
vs normal income ($9,077/mo)	112% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,140/mo

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$763.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,352	$1,584	+$4,360	-$1,080
+2.5%	$782.07 (2.1σ)	$-6,278	$1,584	+$4,360	-$1,080
+5%	$801.15 (3.6σ)	$-13,908	$1,584	+$4,360	-$1,080

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$7	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.24/sh	+$2,993 cycle +$4,118 [+$2,363…+$3,114] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	+$8,915 SAFE cap gain +$14,165
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$8	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.25/sh	+$3,145 cycle +$4,270 [+$1,745…+$3,030] · 95% credit	73% surv 65%	+$18,740 SAFE cap gain +$23,990
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.04/sh	+$471 cycle +$1,596 [-$732…+$311] · 35% credit	75% surv 68%	+$16,066 SAFE cap gain +$21,316
Max even-money escape in the band	~$8	20 Nov 2026	16d left	+$0.03/sh	+$314 cycle +$1,439 [-$1,177…+$119] · 29% credit	80% surv 75%	+$25,034 SAFE cap gain +$30,284
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	23d left	-$0.17/sh	-$2,091 cycle -$966 [-$4,654…-$2,656]	90% surv 89%	+$50,004 SAFE cap gain +$55,254
budget: banked $1,125 debit $2,091 (100% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still -$966 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $2,591/mo while parked; 375 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$8,438/mo
vs 50% target ($38,182/mo)	-78%
vs normal income ($76,364/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,438/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($65,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($65,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)	$-1,375

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $6.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,500	$7,298	+$12,548	+$2,375
+2.5%	$7.17 (≤1σ, normal week)	$313	$8,304	+$13,554	+$188
+5%	$7.35 (1.0σ)	$-1,875	$9,310	+$14,560	-$2,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$26.31 (22.7σ)	$-238,875	$-305,795	-$300,545	-$97,625

Gross FIGHT income	$3,068/mo
vs 50% target ($38,182/mo)	-92%
vs normal income ($76,364/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,068/mo

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $8.41	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.50 (1.4σ)	$1,125	$33,298	+$38,548	+$1,000
+2.5%	$8.71 (1.6σ)	$-1,531	$34,519	+$39,769	-$1,656
+5%	$8.93 (1.7σ)	$-4,188	$35,741	+$40,991	-$4,313
SS (= V-bounce)	$26.31 (13.7σ)	$-221,500	$-288,420	-$283,170	-$80,250

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.50 (1.2σ)	$1,125	$15,048	+$20,298	+$1,000
+2.5%	$7.69 (1.4σ)	$-1,219	$16,126	+$21,376	-$1,344
+5%	$7.88 (1.6σ)	$-3,562	$17,204	+$22,454	-$3,688
SS (= V-bounce)	$26.31 (22.7σ)	$-234,000	$-300,920	-$295,670	-$92,750

Gross FIGHT income	$18,750/mo
vs 50% target ($38,182/mo)	-51%
vs normal income ($76,364/mo)	25% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$18,750/mo

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$6	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.21/sh	+$2,686 cycle +$7,311 [+$1,856…+$2,378] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	+$2,983 SAFE cap gain +$8,233
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$7	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.21/sh	+$2,633 cycle +$7,258 [+$558…+$1,909] · 85% credit	73% surv 66%	+$12,603 SAFE cap gain +$17,853
Max even-money escape in the band	~$8	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.06/sh	+$787 cycle +$5,412 [-$1,906…-$61] · 23% credit	78% surv 73%	+$19,882 SAFE cap gain +$25,132
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$7	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.02/sh	+$203 cycle +$4,828 [-$1,547…-$404] · 13% credit	76% surv 69%	+$10,173 SAFE cap gain +$15,423
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$9	27 Nov 2026	23d left	-$0.18/sh	-$2,247 cycle +$2,378 [-$5,989…-$3,330]	92% surv 91%	+$44,223 SAFE cap gain +$49,473
budget: banked $4,625 debit $2,247 (49% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,378 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $1,881/mo while parked; 375 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$34,688/mo
vs 50% target ($38,182/mo)	-9%
vs normal income ($76,364/mo)	45% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$34,688/mo

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $6.43	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $6-6.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $6.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.