FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $33,825/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $29,117/mo · plus $15,480/mo CC-safe on 1 shallow row(s) ⓘ
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $113,679 locked in if all 7 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 1 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 20 | $46.48 | $66.97 | 20 × $65 18 Sep (9d) $180 cyc · $600/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3% | 20 × $52 11 Sep (2d) $340 cyc · $5,100/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 13% | 20 × $53 11 Sep (2d) $260 cyc · $3,900/mo 95% survhist 96% · T:11%hist 13% | 🎯 15 × $51 11 Sep (2d) $390 cyc · $5,850/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 26% | 19 × $50 11 Sep (2d) $779 cyc · $11,685/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 31% | $3,610 | -$23,569 (172.0% IC) | 44.1% |
| RKLB ↗ RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 6 | $67.08 | $149.16 | 6 × $145 18 Sep (9d) $6 cyc · $20/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:0%hist 3% | 6 × $79 18 Sep (9d)alt tenor $240 cyc · $800/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% | 5 × $74 11 Sep (2d) $95 cyc · $1,425/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 13% | 🎯 6 × $73 11 Sep (2d) $144 cyc · $2,160/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 13% | 6 × $71 11 Sep (2d) $294 cyc · $4,410/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 31% | $2,212 | -$45,552 (286.0% IC) | 122.4% |
| SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock | |||||||||||
| SPY ↗ ⚐ BORDERLINE 26% Neville:0865 · This Fri | 12 | $763.73 | $703.03 | 🎯 12 × $771 11 Sep (2d) $1,032 cyc · $15,480/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 31% above floor +$81,559 | 12 × $774 11 Sep (2d) $504 cyc · $7,560/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% above floor +$85,159 | 12 × $775 11 Sep (2d) $384 cyc · $5,760/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:13%hist 13% above floor +$86,359 | 10 × $773 11 Sep (2d) $560 cyc · $8,400/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:22%hist 26% above floor +$69,966 | 11 × $770 11 Sep (2d) $1,199 cyc · $17,985/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:41%hist 39% above floor +$73,663 | $5,271 | +$81,559 whole if assigned | 0.0% |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $18.90 | $17.33 BE | +9.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| HIMS Main:1299 | 15 | $27.51 | $17.47 BE | +57.5% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $180.81 | $350.31 | 25 × $360 18 Sep (9d) $25 cyc · $83/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:0%hist 3% | 25 × $197.50 11 Sep (2d) $1,775 cyc · $26,625/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 26% | 25 × $202.50 11 Sep (2d) $1,000 cyc · $15,000/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:12%hist 13% | 🎯 21 × $197.50 11 Sep (2d) $1,491 cyc · $22,365/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 26% | 24 × $192.50 11 Sep (2d) $3,024 cyc · $45,360/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 31% | $12,888 | -$319,408 (202.8% IC) | 93.7% |
| GLXY ↗ ⚐ ▼ DOWN -3.6% Main:1299 · This Fri | 25 | $26.49 | $34.31 | 25 × $35 2 Oct (23d) $675 cyc · $880/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:21%hist 26% | 🎯 25 × $29.50 11 Sep (2d) $175 cyc · $2,625/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 13% | 22 × $29.50 11 Sep (2d) $154 cyc · $2,310/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 13% | 10 × $28 11 Sep (2d) $230 cyc · $3,450/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:42%hist 39% | 20 × $28 11 Sep (2d) $460 cyc · $6,900/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:42%hist 39% | $4,837 | -$11,839 (214.3% IC) | 29.5% |
| TOTAL (5) | 88 | following every 🎯 $3,232 cyc · $48,480/mo | $1,918 cyc · $17,064/mo | $3,034 cyc · $42,710/mo | $1,893 cyc · $28,395/mo | $2,815 cyc · $42,225/mo | $5,756 cyc · $86,340/mo | $28,817 | -$400,369 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$360 | 25 Sep 2026 | 12d left | +$9.19/sh | +$22,969 cycle +$22,994 | 68% surv 54% | -$28,645 NOT cap gain +$153,355 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$384 | 25 Sep 2026 | 12d left | +$0.28/sh | +$705 cycle +$730 | 74% surv 66% | -$33,311 NOT cap gain +$148,689 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$392 | 2 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$1.18/sh | +$2,955 cycle +$2,980 | 74% surv 67% | -$25,604 NOT cap gain +$156,396 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $83/mo |
| vs 50% target ($22,125/mo) | -100% |
| vs normal income ($44,250/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $83/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-182,050 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $356.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $356-360.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $360.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $360.00 (9.1σ) | $25 | $-51,614 | +$130,386 | +$149,825 |
| +2.5% | $369.00 (9.6σ) | $-22,475 | $-67,567 | +$114,433 | +$149,825 |
| +5% | $378.00 (10.0σ) | $-44,975 | $-83,519 | +$98,481 | +$149,825 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (19.4σ) | $-507,475 | $-411,432 | -$229,432 | +$149,825 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$198 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$4.69/sh | +$11,728 cycle +$13,503 [+$10,924…+$12,959] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$156,355 NOT cap gain +$25,645 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$227 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.38/sh | +$3,453 cycle +$5,228 [-$1,002…+$4,098] · 69% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$143,394 NOT cap gain +$38,606 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$232 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.56/sh | +$1,409 cycle +$3,184 [-$3,636…+$1,908] · 47% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$141,800 NOT cap gain +$40,200 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$212 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.16/sh | +$408 cycle +$2,183 [-$3,960…+$566] · 33% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$157,352 NOT cap gain +$24,648 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$242 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.55/sh | -$1,373 cycle +$402 [-$6,786…-$989] · 12% credit | 90% surv 89% | -$137,307 NOT cap gain +$44,693 |
| budget: banked $1,775 debit $1,373 (77% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$402 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $11,374/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $26,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($22,125/mo) | +20% |
| vs normal income ($44,250/mo) | 60% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $26,625/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$380,248 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 241.4% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 163.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.6 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-182,138 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $195.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $196-198.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $198.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $197.50 (1.8σ) | $1,775 | $-168,083 | +$13,917 | +$1,575 |
| +2.5% | $202.44 (2.3σ) | $-10,569 | $-176,835 | +$5,165 | -$10,769 |
| +5% | $207.38 (2.9σ) | $-22,912 | $-185,586 | -$3,586 | -$23,112 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (41.2σ) | $-911,975 | $-815,932 | -$633,932 | -$254,675 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$202 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$4.91/sh | +$12,278 cycle +$13,278 [+$11,819…+$13,635] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$152,943 NOT cap gain +$29,057 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$237 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.87/sh | +$2,174 cycle +$3,174 [-$2,352…+$3,095] · 60% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$138,173 NOT cap gain +$43,827 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$217 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.34/sh | +$856 cycle +$1,856 [-$3,178…+$1,347] · 50% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$154,042 NOT cap gain +$27,958 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$242 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.18/sh | +$442 cycle +$1,442 [-$4,581…+$1,269] · 45% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$136,268 NOT cap gain +$45,732 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$247 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.25/sh | -$618 cycle +$382 [-$5,437…+$215] · 29% credit | 89% surv 88% | -$133,690 NOT cap gain +$48,310 |
| budget: banked $1,000 debit $618 (62% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$382 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $12,950/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($22,125/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($44,250/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$368,523 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 234.0% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 158.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.3 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-182,125 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $200.47 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $200-202.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $202.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $202.50 (2.3σ) | $1,000 | $-165,221 | +$16,779 | +$800 |
| +2.5% | $207.56 (2.9σ) | $-11,656 | $-174,194 | +$7,806 | -$11,856 |
| +5% | $212.62 (3.4σ) | $-24,312 | $-183,167 | -$1,167 | -$24,512 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (41.2σ) | $-900,250 | $-804,207 | -$622,207 | -$242,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (21 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$198 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$4.69/sh | +$9,852 cycle +$11,343 [+$9,401…+$10,754] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$158,483 NOT cap gain +$23,517 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$227 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.38/sh | +$2,900 cycle +$4,391 [-$401…+$2,961] · 72% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$144,199 NOT cap gain +$37,801 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$232 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.56/sh | +$1,184 cycle +$2,675 [-$2,594…+$1,127] · 45% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$142,278 NOT cap gain +$39,722 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$212 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.16/sh | +$343 cycle +$1,834 [-$2,879…+$133] · 29% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$157,669 NOT cap gain +$24,331 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$242 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.55/sh | -$1,153 cycle +$338 [-$5,225…-$1,323] · 9% credit | 90% surv 89% | -$137,340 NOT cap gain +$44,660 |
| budget: banked $1,491 debit $1,153 (77% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$338 cash · rolled 21 ct earn ≈ $9,554/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $22,365/mo |
| vs 50% target ($22,125/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($44,250/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $22,425/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$319,408 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 202.8% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 137.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.2 mo |
| Surgical close (21 ct) | $-152,996 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $195.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $196-198.26 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $198.26 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $197.50 (1.8σ) | $1,491 | $-168,335 | +$13,665 | +$1,323 |
| +2.5% | $202.44 (2.3σ) | $-8,878 | $-175,112 | +$6,888 | -$9,046 |
| +5% | $207.38 (2.9σ) | $-19,246 | $-181,888 | +$112 | -$19,414 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (41.2σ) | $-766,059 | $-775,184 | -$593,184 | -$213,927 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (24 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$192 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$4.48/sh | +$10,744 cycle +$13,768 [+$9,691…+$11,555] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$159,720 NOT cap gain +$22,280 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$217 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.98/sh | +$4,753 cycle +$7,777 [+$279…+$4,644] · 76% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$148,112 NOT cap gain +$33,888 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$204 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.51/sh | +$1,221 cycle +$4,245 [-$3,088…+$1,067] · 45% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$160,738 NOT cap gain +$21,262 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$227 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.28/sh | +$665 cycle +$3,689 [-$5,062…+$455] · 32% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$144,926 NOT cap gain +$37,074 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$237 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.82/sh | -$1,972 cycle +$1,052 [-$8,082…-$2,219] · 2% credit | 91% surv 89% | -$140,287 NOT cap gain +$41,713 |
| budget: banked $3,024 debit $1,972 (65% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,052 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $9,512/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $45,360/mo |
| vs 50% target ($22,125/mo) | +105% |
| vs normal income ($44,250/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $45,375/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$375,718 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 238.6% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 161.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.5 mo |
| Surgical close (24 ct) | $-174,864 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $190.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $191-193.82 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $193.82 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $192.50 (1.3σ) | $3,024 | $-170,464 | +$11,536 | +$2,832 |
| +2.5% | $197.31 (1.8σ) | $-8,526 | $-178,512 | +$3,488 | -$8,718 |
| +5% | $202.12 (2.3σ) | $-20,076 | $-186,561 | -$4,561 | -$20,268 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (41.2σ) | $-886,176 | $-816,425 | -$634,425 | -$255,168 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 25 Sep 2026 | 12d left | +$1.57/sh | +$3,132 cycle +$3,312 | 68% surv 54% | -$104 NOT cap gain +$45,016 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$69 | 25 Sep 2026 | 12d left | +$0.23/sh | +$464 cycle +$644 | 73% surv 64% | +$5,152 SAFE cap gain +$50,272 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$74 | 2 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$183 cycle +$363 | 79% surv 74% | +$16,131 SAFE cap gain +$61,251 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,754/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($11,507/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $357/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,765 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 27.5% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 3.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-45,140 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $64.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $64-65.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $65.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $65.00 (2.9σ) | $180 | $-3,236 | +$41,884 | -$300 |
| +2.5% | $66.62 (3.1σ) | $-3,070 | $-2,827 | +$42,293 | -$300 |
| +5% | $68.25 (3.4σ) | $-6,320 | $-2,417 | +$42,703 | -$300 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$52 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.67/sh | +$3,332 cycle +$3,672 [+$3,163…+$3,640] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$29,021 NOT cap gain +$16,099 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$61 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.76/sh | +$1,515 cycle +$1,855 [+$616…+$1,724] · 84% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$11,653 NOT cap gain +$33,467 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$57 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$182 cycle +$522 [-$797…+$237] · 44% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$21,994 NOT cap gain +$23,126 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$61 | 25 Sep 2026 | 15d left | +$0.06/sh | +$115 cycle +$455 [-$1,045…+$223] · 37% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$13,054 NOT cap gain +$32,066 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$66 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.03/sh | -$50 cycle +$290 [-$1,303…+$66] · 27% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$1,958 NOT cap gain +$43,162 |
| budget: banked $340 debit $50 (15% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$290 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,428/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,754/mo) | -11% |
| vs normal income ($11,507/mo) | 44% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,857/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,605 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 216.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 27.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-45,160 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $51.48 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $51-52.19 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $52.19 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $52.00 (1.8σ) | $340 | $-32,352 | +$12,768 | -$140 |
| +2.5% | $53.30 (2.2σ) | $-2,260 | $-32,025 | +$13,095 | -$2,740 |
| +5% | $54.60 (2.7σ) | $-4,860 | $-31,697 | +$13,423 | -$5,340 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.6σ) | $-22,520 | $-29,472 | +$15,648 | -$23,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$53 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.72/sh | +$3,438 cycle +$3,698 [+$3,254…+$3,788] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$26,742 NOT cap gain +$18,378 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$62 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.85/sh | +$1,691 cycle +$1,951 [+$717…+$2,040] · 81% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$9,306 NOT cap gain +$35,814 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$58 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$269 cycle +$529 [-$809…+$457] · 56% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$19,735 NOT cap gain +$25,385 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$67 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$86 cycle +$346 [-$1,261…+$380] · 44% credit | 88% surv 86% | +$350 SAFE cap gain +$45,470 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,754/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($11,507/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,657/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$27,685 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 202.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 25.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-45,140 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $52.47 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $52-53.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $53.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $53.00 (2.1σ) | $260 | $-30,180 | +$14,940 | -$220 |
| +2.5% | $54.32 (2.6σ) | $-2,390 | $-29,846 | +$15,274 | -$2,870 |
| +5% | $55.65 (3.0σ) | $-5,040 | $-29,512 | +$15,608 | -$5,520 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.6σ) | $-20,600 | $-27,552 | +$17,568 | -$21,080 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$51 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.61/sh | +$2,420 cycle +$2,810 [+$2,211…+$2,603] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$32,014 NOT cap gain +$13,106 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$60 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.67/sh | +$1,009 cycle +$1,399 [+$133…+$1,021] · 80% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$14,242 NOT cap gain +$30,878 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$56 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$73 cycle +$463 [-$818…+$4] · 26% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$24,185 NOT cap gain +$20,935 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$60 | 25 Sep 2026 | 15d left | +$0.00/sh | +$4 cycle +$394 [-$1,067…-$49] · 21% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$15,246 NOT cap gain +$29,874 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$65 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.09/sh | -$134 cycle +$256 [-$1,304…-$194] · 15% credit | 89% surv 87% | -$4,124 NOT cap gain +$40,996 |
| budget: banked $390 debit $134 (34% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$256 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $2,363/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,850/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,754/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($11,507/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,832/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,569 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 172.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 21.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (15 ct) | $-33,885 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $50.49 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-51.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $51.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $51.00 (1.5σ) | $390 | $-34,434 | +$10,686 | +$30 |
| +2.5% | $52.27 (1.9σ) | $-1,522 | $-33,475 | +$11,645 | -$1,882 |
| +5% | $53.55 (2.3σ) | $-3,435 | $-32,517 | +$12,603 | -$3,795 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.6σ) | $-18,255 | $-25,087 | +$20,033 | -$18,615 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.56/sh | +$2,968 cycle +$3,747 [+$2,674…+$3,191] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$33,425 NOT cap gain +$11,695 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$59 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.59/sh | +$1,121 cycle +$1,900 [-$17…+$1,122] · 74% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$16,088 NOT cap gain +$29,032 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$55 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$16 cycle +$795 [-$1,148…-$37] · 21% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$26,201 NOT cap gain +$18,919 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$64 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.15/sh | -$284 cycle +$495 [-$1,795…-$337] · 11% credit | 89% surv 88% | -$6,233 NOT cap gain +$38,887 |
| budget: banked $779 debit $284 (36% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$495 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,742/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $11,685/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,754/mo) | +103% |
| vs normal income ($11,507/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,487/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,469 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 229.7% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 29.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-42,892 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-50.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $50.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (1.2σ) | $779 | $-36,393 | +$8,727 | +$323 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (1.6σ) | $-1,596 | $-35,953 | +$9,167 | -$2,052 |
| +5% | $52.50 (2.0σ) | $-3,971 | $-35,513 | +$9,607 | -$4,427 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (5.6σ) | $-24,738 | $-31,666 | +$13,454 | -$25,194 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$145 | 25 Sep 2026 | 12d left | -$2.21/sh | -$1,327 cycle -$1,321 | 65% surv 51% | -$2,792 NOT cap gain +$49,405 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $20/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,121/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($4,241/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-179/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,490 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 15.6% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 3.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-52,212 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $143.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $144-145.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $145.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $145.00 (10.2σ) | $6 | $-1,465 | +$50,732 | +$23,970 |
| +2.5% | $148.62 (10.7σ) | $-2,169 | $-1,280 | +$50,917 | +$23,970 |
| +5% | $152.25 (11.1σ) | $-4,344 | $-1,095 | +$51,102 | +$23,970 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$79 | 25 Sep 2026 | 12d left | +$0.89/sh | +$531 cycle +$771 [+$480…+$842] · 99% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$43,666 NOT cap gain +$8,531 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 2 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$0.32/sh | +$192 cycle +$432 [-$1…+$484] · 75% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$41,453 NOT cap gain +$10,744 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$81 | 25 Sep 2026 | 12d left | +$0.11/sh | +$68 cycle +$308 [-$81…+$313] · 64% credit | 70% surv 60% | -$42,879 NOT cap gain +$9,318 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$85 | 2 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$109 cycle +$131 [-$357…+$160] · 35% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$40,452 NOT cap gain +$11,745 |
| budget: banked $240 debit $109 (45% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,369/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,121/mo) | -62% |
| vs normal income ($4,241/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $601/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$41,856 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 262.8% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 59.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.9 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-52,236 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $78.21 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $78-79.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $79.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $79.00 (1.6σ) | $240 | $-44,197 | +$8,000 | +$204 |
| +2.5% | $80.97 (1.8σ) | $-945 | $-44,096 | +$8,101 | -$981 |
| +5% | $82.95 (2.1σ) | $-2,130 | $-43,996 | +$8,201 | -$2,166 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (9.7σ) | $-37,290 | $-41,007 | +$11,190 | -$15,396 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$74 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.56/sh | +$779 cycle +$874 [+$681…+$823] · 99% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$46,812 NOT cap gain +$5,385 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$82 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.85/sh | +$425 cycle +$520 [+$66…+$413] · 78% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$42,010 NOT cap gain +$10,187 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.19/sh | +$97 cycle +$192 [-$242…+$74] · 42% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$44,942 NOT cap gain +$7,255 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$86 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$26 cycle +$121 [-$435…-$5] · 24% credit | 86% surv 83% | -$39,805 NOT cap gain +$12,392 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.07/sh | -$35 cycle +$60 [-$512…-$71] · 11% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$39,215 NOT cap gain +$12,982 |
| budget: banked $95 debit $35 (37% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$60 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $841/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,425/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,121/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($4,241/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,237/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,485 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 235.3% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 53.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.8 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-43,518 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $73.26 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $73-74.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $74.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $74.00 (1.9σ) | $95 | $-47,591 | +$4,606 | +$65 |
| +2.5% | $75.85 (2.4σ) | $-830 | $-47,312 | +$4,885 | -$860 |
| +5% | $77.70 (2.9σ) | $-1,755 | $-47,032 | +$5,165 | -$1,785 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (20.7σ) | $-33,680 | $-41,046 | +$11,151 | -$15,435 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$73 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.56/sh | +$936 cycle +$1,080 [+$774…+$1,007] · 100% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$47,263 NOT cap gain +$4,934 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.85/sh | +$510 cycle +$654 [-$28…+$509] · 74% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$42,534 NOT cap gain +$9,663 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$77 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.20/sh | +$119 cycle +$263 [-$377…+$110] · 46% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$45,528 NOT cap gain +$6,669 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$85 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$34 cycle +$178 [-$645…+$20] · 28% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$40,405 NOT cap gain +$11,792 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.19/sh | -$113 cycle +$31 [-$838…-$132] · 10% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$39,250 NOT cap gain +$12,947 |
| budget: banked $144 debit $113 (78% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $898/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,160/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,121/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($4,241/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,961/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$45,552 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 286.0% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 65.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.7 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-52,230 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $72-73.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $73.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.00 (1.6σ) | $144 | $-48,199 | +$3,998 | +$108 |
| +2.5% | $74.82 (2.1σ) | $-951 | $-48,106 | +$4,091 | -$987 |
| +5% | $76.65 (2.7σ) | $-2,046 | $-48,013 | +$4,184 | -$2,082 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (20.7σ) | $-40,986 | $-44,703 | +$7,494 | -$19,092 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$71 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$1.57/sh | +$939 cycle +$1,233 [+$818…+$966] · 100% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$48,412 NOT cap gain +$3,785 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$79 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.85/sh | +$507 cycle +$801 [+$74…+$480] · 81% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$43,688 NOT cap gain +$8,509 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$75 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.21/sh | +$124 cycle +$418 [-$273…+$92] · 46% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$46,675 NOT cap gain +$5,522 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$37 cycle +$331 [-$507…-$9] · 23% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$41,554 NOT cap gain +$10,643 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$87 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.35/sh | -$211 cycle +$83 [-$821…-$266] | 91% surv 90% | -$39,198 NOT cap gain +$12,999 |
| budget: banked $294 debit $211 (72% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $736/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,410/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,121/mo) | +108% |
| vs normal income ($4,241/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,211/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,602 |
| … as % of IC ($15,930) | 292.5% |
| … as % of ML ($69,930) | 66.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 11.0 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-52,221 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $70.29 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $70-71.53 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $71.53 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $71.00 (1.1σ) | $294 | $-49,351 | +$2,846 | +$258 |
| +2.5% | $72.77 (1.6σ) | $-771 | $-49,261 | +$2,936 | -$807 |
| +5% | $74.55 (2.1σ) | $-1,836 | $-49,170 | +$3,027 | -$1,872 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $141.55 (20.7σ) | $-42,036 | $-45,753 | +$6,444 | -$20,142 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$771 | 14 Sep 2026 | 4d left | +$1.40/sh | +$1,674 cycle +$2,706 [+$1,592…+$1,832] · 100% credit | 68% surv 50% | +$69,550 SAFE cap gain +$10,060 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$772 | 14 Sep 2026 | 4d left | +$0.62/sh | +$744 cycle +$1,776 [+$198…+$726] · 83% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$69,905 SAFE cap gain +$10,415 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$782 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.50/sh | +$1,796 cycle +$2,828 [-$137…+$1,659] · 73% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$81,074 SAFE cap gain +$21,584 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$786 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.22/sh | +$265 cycle +$1,297 [-$2,016…+$67] · 28% credit | 81% surv 77% | +$83,588 SAFE cap gain +$24,098 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$790 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.73/sh | -$873 cycle +$159 [-$3,479…-$1,138] | 85% surv 83% | +$86,497 SAFE cap gain +$27,007 |
| budget: banked $1,032 debit $873 (85% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$159 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,055/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,229/mo) | +88% |
| vs normal income ($16,457/mo) | 94% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,480/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $59,484 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $763.29 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $763-771.87 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $771.87 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $771.00 (1.1σ) | $1,032 | $67,876 | +$8,386 | +$204 |
| +2.5% | $790.27 (3.9σ) | $-22,098 | $64,245 | +$4,755 | +$204 |
| +5% | $809.55 (6.7σ) | $-45,228 | $60,614 | +$1,124 | +$204 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$774 | 14 Sep 2026 | 4d left | +$1.34/sh | +$1,610 cycle +$2,114 [+$1,574…+$1,867] · 100% credit | 68% surv 50% | +$71,993 SAFE cap gain +$12,503 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$775 | 14 Sep 2026 | 4d left | +$0.57/sh | +$682 cycle +$1,186 [+$197…+$785] · 84% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$72,350 SAFE cap gain +$12,860 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$785 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.41/sh | +$1,692 cycle +$2,196 [-$34…+$1,742] · 74% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$83,476 SAFE cap gain +$23,986 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$789 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.14/sh | +$170 cycle +$674 [-$1,906…+$137] · 30% credit | 81% surv 78% | +$86,001 SAFE cap gain +$26,511 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$791 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.37/sh | -$441 cycle +$63 [-$2,679…-$482] · 10% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$87,412 SAFE cap gain +$27,922 |
| budget: banked $504 debit $441 (88% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$63 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,660/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,560/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,229/mo) | -8% |
| vs normal income ($16,457/mo) | 46% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,560/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $59,484 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $766.26 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $766-774.42 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $774.42 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $774.00 (1.5σ) | $504 | $70,383 | +$10,893 | +$3,276 |
| +2.5% | $793.35 (4.3σ) | $-22,716 | $66,738 | +$7,248 | +$3,276 |
| +5% | $812.70 (7.2σ) | $-45,936 | $63,092 | +$3,602 | +$3,276 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$775 | 14 Sep 2026 | 4d left | +$1.32/sh | +$1,589 cycle +$1,973 [+$1,518…+$1,831] · 100% credit | 68% surv 50% | +$72,863 SAFE cap gain +$13,373 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$776 | 14 Sep 2026 | 4d left | +$0.55/sh | +$661 cycle +$1,045 [+$127…+$710] · 81% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$73,221 SAFE cap gain +$13,731 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$786 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.38/sh | +$1,657 cycle +$2,041 [-$266…+$1,564] · 70% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$84,332 SAFE cap gain +$24,842 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$790 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$139 cycle +$523 [-$2,157…-$33] · 23% credit | 81% surv 78% | +$86,861 SAFE cap gain +$27,371 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$791 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.15/sh | -$178 cycle +$206 [-$2,563…-$377] · 18% credit | 83% surv 79% | +$87,555 SAFE cap gain +$28,065 |
| budget: banked $384 debit $178 (46% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$206 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,024/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,760/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,229/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($16,457/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,760/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (12 ct) | $59,484 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $767.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $767-775.33 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $775.33 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $775.00 (1.7σ) | $384 | $71,275 | +$11,785 | +$4,356 |
| +2.5% | $794.37 (4.5σ) | $-22,866 | $67,624 | +$8,134 | +$4,356 |
| +5% | $813.75 (7.3σ) | $-46,116 | $63,974 | +$4,484 | +$4,356 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$773 | 14 Sep 2026 | 4d left | +$1.36/sh | +$1,360 cycle +$1,920 [+$1,305…+$1,525] · 100% credit | 68% surv 50% | +$70,525 SAFE cap gain +$11,035 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$774 | 14 Sep 2026 | 4d left | +$0.59/sh | +$586 cycle +$1,146 [+$179…+$573] · 82% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$70,782 SAFE cap gain +$11,292 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$784 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.44/sh | +$1,439 cycle +$1,999 [-$52…+$1,314] · 74% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$79,751 SAFE cap gain +$20,261 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$788 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.17/sh | +$168 cycle +$728 [-$1,609…-$10] · 24% credit | 81% surv 78% | +$81,727 SAFE cap gain +$22,237 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$790 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$0.34/sh | -$343 cycle +$217 [-$2,257…-$550] · 7% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$82,839 SAFE cap gain +$23,349 |
| budget: banked $560 debit $343 (61% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$217 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,079/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,229/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($16,457/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $11,284/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $49,570 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $765.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $765-773.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $773.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $773.00 (1.4σ) | $560 | $69,166 | +$9,676 | +$1,870 |
| +2.5% | $792.32 (4.2σ) | $-18,765 | $65,525 | +$6,035 | +$1,870 |
| +5% | $811.65 (7.0σ) | $-38,090 | $61,884 | +$2,394 | +$1,870 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (11 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$770 | 14 Sep 2026 | 4d left | +$1.41/sh | +$1,554 cycle +$2,753 [+$1,471…+$1,691] · 100% credit | 68% surv 50% | +$68,755 SAFE cap gain +$9,265 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$771 | 14 Sep 2026 | 4d left | +$0.64/sh | +$701 cycle +$1,900 [+$203…+$683] · 83% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$69,060 SAFE cap gain +$9,570 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$781 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$1.53/sh | +$1,679 cycle +$2,878 [-$77…+$1,559] · 73% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$79,153 SAFE cap gain +$19,663 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$785 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.25/sh | +$271 cycle +$1,470 [-$1,822…+$101] · 30% credit | 81% surv 77% | +$81,392 SAFE cap gain +$21,902 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$791 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | -$1.08/sh | -$1,188 cycle +$11 [-$3,714…-$1,424] | 87% surv 86% | +$85,403 SAFE cap gain +$25,913 |
| budget: banked $1,199 debit $1,188 (99% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,267/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $17,985/mo |
| vs 50% target ($8,229/mo) | +119% |
| vs normal income ($16,457/mo) | 109% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $19,427/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($148,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (11 ct) | $54,527 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $762.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $762-771.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $771.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $770.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,199 | $67,201 | +$7,711 | -$660 |
| +2.5% | $789.25 (3.7σ) | $-19,976 | $63,574 | +$4,084 | -$660 |
| +5% | $808.50 (6.6σ) | $-41,151 | $59,947 | +$457 | -$660 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $880/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,445/mo) | -74% |
| vs normal income ($6,891/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $880/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-17,188 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 12d left | 3-11d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (1.4σ) | $675 | $2,131 | +$18,844 | +$575 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (1.6σ) | $-1,512 | $1,812 | +$18,524 | -$1,612 |
| +5% | $36.75 (1.7σ) | $-3,700 | $1,493 | +$18,205 | -$1,925 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (2.2σ) | $-11,100 | $412 | +$17,125 | -$1,925 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.60/sh | +$1,508 cycle +$1,683 [+$790…+$1,679] · 91% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$8,603 NOT cap gain +$8,110 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$33 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.36/sh | +$907 cycle +$1,082 [-$143…+$1,070] · 70% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$1,710 NOT cap gain +$15,003 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$31 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$357 cycle +$532 [-$651…+$457] · 54% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$7,598 NOT cap gain +$9,115 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.15/sh | +$378 cycle +$553 [-$777…+$515] · 53% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$104 NOT cap gain +$16,608 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,445/mo) | -24% |
| vs normal income ($6,891/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,625/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,839 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 214.3% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 21.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-16,800 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.50 (1.7σ) | $175 | $-10,111 | +$6,601 | +$75 |
| +2.5% | $30.24 (2.1σ) | $-1,669 | $-10,380 | +$6,332 | -$1,769 |
| +5% | $30.98 (2.5σ) | $-3,513 | $-10,650 | +$6,063 | -$3,613 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.5σ) | $-25,350 | $-13,838 | +$2,875 | -$16,175 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (22 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.60/sh | +$1,327 cycle +$1,481 [+$757…+$1,451] · 89% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$8,793 NOT cap gain +$7,920 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$33 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.36/sh | +$798 cycle +$952 [-$44…+$903] · 72% credit | 77% surv 72% | -$1,828 NOT cap gain +$14,885 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$31 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.14/sh | +$314 cycle +$468 [-$494…+$367] · 52% credit | 71% surv 62% | -$7,649 NOT cap gain +$9,063 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.15/sh | +$333 cycle +$487 [-$593…+$412] · 50% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$159 NOT cap gain +$16,554 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,310/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,445/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($6,891/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,332/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,418 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 188.6% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 18.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (22 ct) | $-14,784 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $29-29.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $29.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $29.50 (1.7σ) | $154 | $-10,120 | +$6,592 | +$66 |
| +2.5% | $30.24 (2.1σ) | $-1,468 | $-10,168 | +$6,544 | -$1,556 |
| +5% | $30.98 (2.5σ) | $-3,091 | $-10,216 | +$6,496 | -$3,179 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.5σ) | $-22,308 | $-11,897 | +$4,816 | -$14,234 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.55/sh | +$555 cycle +$785 [+$107…+$527] · 82% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$12,644 NOT cap gain +$4,069 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$31 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.52/sh | +$517 cycle +$747 [-$80…+$475] · 71% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$7,323 NOT cap gain +$9,390 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.11/sh | +$106 cycle +$336 [-$479…+$54] · 34% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$10,936 NOT cap gain +$5,776 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$33 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$68 cycle +$298 [-$634…+$7] · 26% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$3,501 NOT cap gain +$13,211 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 25 Sep 2026 | 15d left | -$0.22/sh | -$221 cycle +$9 [-$980…-$296] | 83% surv 81% | -$3,791 NOT cap gain +$12,922 |
| budget: banked $230 debit $221 (96% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,172/mo while parked; 15 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,445/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($6,891/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,562/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,076 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 110.0% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 10.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-6,725 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $28-28.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $28.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $230 | $-13,199 | +$3,514 | +$190 |
| +2.5% | $28.70 (1.3σ) | $-470 | $-12,404 | +$4,308 | -$510 |
| +5% | $29.40 (1.7σ) | $-1,170 | $-11,610 | +$5,103 | -$1,210 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.5σ) | $-11,480 | $-5,473 | +$11,240 | -$7,810 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.55/sh | +$1,110 cycle +$1,570 [+$329…+$1,051] · 84% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$11,899 NOT cap gain +$4,814 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$31 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.52/sh | +$1,034 cycle +$1,494 [-$6…+$936] · 75% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$6,616 NOT cap gain +$10,097 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 18 Sep 2026 | 8d left | +$0.11/sh | +$212 cycle +$672 [-$828…+$101] · 35% credit | 71% surv 63% | -$10,640 NOT cap gain +$6,072 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$33 | 2 Oct 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$137 cycle +$597 [-$1,098…+$4] · 26% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$3,243 NOT cap gain +$13,470 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$33 | 25 Sep 2026 | 15d left | -$0.22/sh | -$442 cycle +$18 [-$1,786…-$598] | 83% surv 81% | -$3,821 NOT cap gain +$12,891 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $442 (96% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$18 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,344/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,445/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($6,891/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,938/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,151 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 219.9% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 21.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-13,450 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.72 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $28-28.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $28.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $28.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $460 | $-13,009 | +$3,704 | +$380 |
| +2.5% | $28.70 (1.3σ) | $-940 | $-12,914 | +$3,798 | -$1,020 |
| +5% | $29.40 (1.7σ) | $-2,340 | $-12,820 | +$3,893 | -$2,420 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (7.5σ) | $-22,960 | $-13,283 | +$3,430 | -$15,620 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (16d) | $555.98 | $565.44 | $34.45 | $28.47 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $5.98/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks DELL 1:1); only $28.47 is live theta (~$8,541). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its BE SS (no leg marks) ($398.00), so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. ▸ Gate on price: hold while DELL is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $560, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 3x $550C at ~$34.71 ($10,414), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $160C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) | $152.06 | $161.00 | $0.84 | $0.84 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.94 OTM = 5.2% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $0.84 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$477 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $30.98/sh BELOW the $190.98 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $15,492 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $161.00 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (72d) | $646.31 | $687.21 | $45.83 | $45.83 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.69 OTM = 2.9% (1.0x a typical daily move). The $45.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,649 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $687.21 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $232.5C 9 Sep 2026 (0d) | $225.40 | $232.93 | $0.04 | $0.04 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.10 OTM = 3.1% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $0.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$383 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $232.93 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $267.5C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) | $252.48 | $268.32 | $0.14 | $0.14 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.02 OTM = 5.9% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $0.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$385 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $268.32 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $345C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) | $327.26 | $345.78 | $0.22 | $0.22 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.74 OTM = 5.4% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $0.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,093 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $345.78 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $345C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) | $327.26 | $345.78 | $0.22 | $0.22 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.74 OTM = 5.4% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $0.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $345.78 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $332.5C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) | $309.49 | $335.00 | $0.85 | $0.85 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.01 OTM = 7.4% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $0.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $335.00 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $30C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) | $26.48 | $30.13 | $0.16 | $0.16 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.52 OTM = 13.3% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $0.16 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$758 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $29.85 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (9d) | $95.97 | $101.31 | $1.32 | $1.32 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.03 OTM = 4.2% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $1.32 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,511 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.31 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $60C 18 Sep 2026 (9d) | $46.29 | $60.40 | $0.22 | $0.22 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.71 OTM = 29.6% (4.6x a typical daily move). The $0.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$706 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $60.40 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1x $1100C 25 Sep 2026 (16d) | $1,007.66 | $1,125.39 | $21.30 | $21.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 92.34 OTM = 9.2% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $21.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,534 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,125.39 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (23d) | $103.98 | $118.98 | $3.08 | $3.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.02 OTM = 11.6% (2.7x a typical daily move). The $3.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,467 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $118.98 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (23d) | $180.87 | $229.43 | $3.06 | $3.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 39.13 OTM = 21.6% (4.6x a typical daily move). The $3.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,506 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $229.43 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) | $133.79 | $155.41 | $6.78 | $6.78 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.21 OTM = 4.6% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $6.78 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$15,359 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $155.41 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) | $102.79 | $112.23 | $1.34 | $1.34 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.21 OTM = 8.0% (4.2x a typical daily move). The $1.34 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) | $327.26 | $374.44 | $3.10 | $3.10 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 37.74 OTM = 11.5% (5.6x a typical daily move). The $3.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,695 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $374.44 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) | $46.29 | $55.88 | $2.50 | $2.50 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.71 OTM = 18.8% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $2.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) | $46.29 | $55.88 | $2.50 | $2.50 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.71 OTM = 18.8% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $2.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) | $99.42 | $127.58 | $3.65 | $3.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 25.58 OTM = 25.7% (4.7x a typical daily move). The $3.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,267 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $127.58 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (44d) | $1,734.16 | $2,085.25 | $115.50 | $115.50 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 215.84 OTM = 12.4% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $115.50 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$13,520 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $2,085.25 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMD | Neville:0865 | 2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (44d) | $514.90 | $593.17 | $17.23 | $17.23 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 65.10 OTM = 12.6% (3.7x a typical daily move). The $17.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,624 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $593.17 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (44d) | $1,007.66 | $1,252.67 | $34.85 | $34.85 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 202.34 OTM = 20.1% (4.7x a typical daily move). The $34.85 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$21,312 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,252.67 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (44d) | $1,007.66 | $1,284.32 | $28.75 | $28.75 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 242.34 OTM = 24.0% (5.6x a typical daily move). The $28.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,854 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,284.32 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (72d) | $179.03 | $224.53 | $4.80 | $4.80 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 40.97 OTM = 22.9% (6.9x a typical daily move). The $4.80 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (72d) | $137.95 | $180.96 | $9.93 | $9.93 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.05 OTM = 23.2% (4.5x a typical daily move). The $9.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (72d) | $137.95 | $180.95 | $9.93 | $9.93 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.05 OTM = 23.2% (4.5x a typical daily move). The $9.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (100d) | $405.01 | $476.90 | $5.62 | $5.62 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 64.99 OTM = 16.0% (9.3x a typical daily move). The $5.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,847 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $476.90 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $25.02 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 53.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $25.02 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 31.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $25.02 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 62.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $13.47 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.0% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $37.61 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.0% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $44.84 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $11.84 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 29.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $11.84 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 71.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Neville:0865 | 2 | $489.91 | 2x $580C 23 Oct 2026 (44d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $268C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $332C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (23d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (9d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $125C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (16d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (100d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $345C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $345C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $345C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $345C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 (23d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $60C 18 Sep 2026 (9d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (72d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (72d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (72d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC670 | Joint:1782 | 1 | $792.36 | 1x $1100C 25 Sep 2026 (16d) |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1210C 23 Oct 2026 (44d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1250C 23 Oct 2026 (44d) |
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10 | $108.93 | 10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (37d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $232C 9 Sep 2026 (0d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (72d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1950C 23 Oct 2026 (44d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $160C 11 Sep 2026 (2d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 180 | 56% | 63% | +7pp |
| 60-70% | 362 | 64% | 62% | -3pp |
| 70-80% | 460 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 600 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 988 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2590 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 9 graded weeks; last week 0.93x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 161 real buyback(s) recorded · 83 roll(s), net +$0.59/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 83 real rolls: buyback $6.77/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.59/sh (58 of 83 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.