FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s)  |  5 deep drawdown (FIGHT)  |  8 skipped (CSV)  |  5 uncapped above water  |  23 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $17,199/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $5,200/mo ⚠ 1 negative E[net]
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $927,838 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

GENERATED2026-10-02 21:47

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped   every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick  |  click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes  |  fortress link = full dashboard  |  ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITIONCC-SAFEINCOME LADDER  ·  SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST
RECOVERY
FortressCtPriceCC-SSCC-safe ≥ floor🛡 Safe yield33% normal50% normal100% normalBankedCap @ CC-SS↑ whole
AMZN ↗⚡ER 27d ▲ UP +1.7%
Joint:1782 · Next Fri
5$252.53$270.76
5 × $275 23 Oct (21d)
$475 cyc · $679/mo
91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%
5 × $280 30 Oct (28d)alt tenor
$1,325 cyc · $1,420/mo
92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 14%
4 × $260 9 Oct (7d)
$532 cyc · $2,280/mo
78% survhist 82% · T:44%hist 41%
🎯 4 × $257.50 9 Oct (7d)
$780 cyc · $3,343/mo
70% survhist 82% · T:60%hist 46%
5 × $255 9 Oct (7d)
$1,445 cyc · $6,193/mo
61% survhist 64% · T:79%hist 68%
$1,422-$4,524 (13.3% IC)7.2%
IREN-LC45 ↗⚡ER 34d ▲ UP +7.5%
Neville:0865 · Next Fri
20$43.16$58.72
20 × $60 30 Oct (28d)
$740 cyc · $793/mo
96% survhist 96% · T:9%hist 3%
20 × $49.50 9 Oct (7d)
$440 cyc · $1,886/mo
91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%
🎯 20 × $48 9 Oct (7d)
$780 cyc · $3,343/mo
86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 25%
19 × $46.50 9 Oct (7d)
$1,159 cyc · $4,967/mo
78% survhist 82% · T:45%hist 41%
18 × $44 9 Oct (7d)
$2,376 cyc · $10,183/mo
60% survhist 68% · T:84%hist 80%
$5,471-$20,653 (344.2% IC)36.0%
IREN-LC50 ↗⚡ER 34d ▲ UP +7.5%
RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri
20$43.16$67.37
20 × $70 30 Oct (28d)
$160 cyc · $171/mo
98% survhist 96% · T:4%hist 3%
20 × $49.50 9 Oct (7d)
$440 cyc · $1,886/mo
91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%
🎯 20 × $48 9 Oct (7d)
$780 cyc · $3,343/mo
86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 25%
19 × $46.50 9 Oct (7d)
$1,159 cyc · $4,967/mo
78% survhist 82% · T:45%hist 41%
18 × $44 9 Oct (7d)
$2,376 cyc · $10,183/mo
60% survhist 68% · T:84%hist 80%
$4,076-$37,950 (277.0% IC)56.1%
APP ↗⚡ER 33d ▼ DOWN -4.0%
RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri
1$271.48$621.93—
1 × $302.50 9 Oct (7d)
$105 cyc · $450/mo
91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14%
1 × $295 9 Oct (7d)
$195 cyc · $836/mo
85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 25%
🎯 1 × $290 9 Oct (7d)
$275 cyc · $1,179/mo
80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 33%
1 × $280 9 Oct (7d)
$590 cyc · $2,529/mo
67% survhist 64% · T:68%hist 59%
$2,598-$32,918 (257.2% IC)129.1%
ABOVE WATER   no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
CRCL
Neville:0865
5$88.06$87.00 BE+1.2% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
DELL
Main:1299
3$563.00$562.50 BE+0.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
ETHA
Main:1299
50$20.87$17.33 BE+20.4% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
HOOD
Joint:1782
10$118.04$114.95 BE+2.7% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
SPY
Neville:0865
12$771.61$764.00 BE+1.0% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES   known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 18d ▲ UP +5.4%
Main:1299 · Next Fri
25$24.30$35.45
25 × $35 16 Oct (14d)
$25 cyc · $54/mo
99% survhist 96% · T:3%hist 3%
25 × $30 16 Oct (14d)alt tenor
$375 cyc · $804/mo
91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14%
🎯 24 × $27.50 9 Oct (7d)
$408 cyc · $1,749/mo
87% survhist 86% · T:28%hist 25%
20 × $26 9 Oct (7d)
$640 cyc · $2,743/mo
74% survhist 82% · T:53%hist 46%
25 × $25.50 9 Oct (7d)
$1,225 cyc · $5,250/mo
69% survhist 64% · T:65%hist 59%
$6,095-$18,664 (337.8% IC)45.9%
TOTAL (5)71
following every 🎯
$3,023 cyc · $12,956/mo
$1,400 cyc · $1,696/mo
4 of 5
$2,685 cyc · $6,445/mo$2,695 cyc · $11,550/mo$4,013 cyc · $17,199/mo$8,012 cyc · $34,337/mo$19,661-$114,709

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 24 active short call(s)   3 TRIPPED  ·  8 watch  ·  4 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

FortressAcctCallSpotBreakevenMarkTime valueStatusAction
IREN-LC25-1299Main:129920x $41.5C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)$43.12$41.66$1.67$0.05TRIPPED ▸🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸
IREN-LC25-1782Joint:178220x $41.5C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)$43.12$41.67$1.67$0.05TRIPPED ▸🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸
CRWVNeville:08655x $89C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)$91.81$89.41$3.03$0.22TRIPPED ▸🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸
SPCXNeville:08655x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)$153.35$156.11$0.64$0.64WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
AAPLRetireInc:72915x $337.5C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)$331.35$337.74$0.07$0.07WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MU-LC880Main:12995x $1125C 5 Oct 2026 (3d)$1,094.42$1,129.00$6.92$6.92WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
NVDAMain:129910x $240C 9 Oct 2026 (7d)$236.82$242.02$2.46$2.46WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MU-LC970Neville:08652x $1125C 14 Oct 2026 (12d)$1,094.42$1,137.74$27.38$27.38WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IGVMain:129912x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (14d)$109.21$112.23$2.16$2.16WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MSTR-LC125RetireInc:72914x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (49d)$169.23$180.96$17.15$17.15WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MSTR-LC180Joint:178210x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (49d)$169.23$180.95$17.15$17.15WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
SNDKNeville:08651x $1800C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)$1,735.22$1,811.50$2.65$2.65HARVEST ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COPXJoint:178220x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)$85.33$90.65$0.05$0.05HARVEST ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
HIMSMain:129915x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)$30.22$32.28$0.04$0.04HARVEST ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GLXYMain:1299100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)$24.27$26.26$0.03$0.03HARVEST ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
RKLBRetireInc:72916x $79C 9 Oct 2026 (7d)$72.78$79.83$0.88$0.88OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GOOG-LC310Joint:17825x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (14d)$341.26$359.26$3.10$3.10OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GOOG-LC300Neville:086515x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (14d)$341.26$362.52$2.14$2.14OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GOOG-LC340Neville:08655x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (14d)$341.26$362.52$2.14$2.14OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC500Main:129925x $215C 23 Oct 2026 (21d)$198.99$218.75$5.95$5.95OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
INTCNeville:08655x $138C 23 Oct 2026 (21d)$123.94$140.81$4.05$4.05OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
QCOMRetireInc:72915x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (49d)$184.78$224.53$4.22$4.22OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GLDMain:129910x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (77d)$384.18$419.00$6.70$6.70OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC165Main:12998x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (77d)$198.99$278.82$6.00$6.00OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s)   these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

FortressAcctCtPriceBE SSWhy excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299Main:129975$28.00$53.26excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782Joint:1782150$28.00$36.42excluded by CSV (Skip) · 23.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25Main:129950$28.00$65.83excluded by CSV (Skip) · 57.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSKRetireInc:729125$13.35$20.74excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.6% below BE SS
ENPHRetireInc:729110$33.74$56.15excluded by CSV (Skip) · 39.9% below BE SS
IBITJoint:178250$49.26$70.58excluded by CSV (Skip) · 30.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13Main:1299400$12.18$16.75excluded by CSV (Skip) · 27.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40RetireInc:7291500$12.18$41.04excluded by CSV (Skip) · 70.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
CAPPED: 23 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope
FortressAcctCtBE SSActive short calls
AAPLRetireInc:72915$334.645x $338C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)
COIN-LC165Main:12998$210.908x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (77d)
COIN-LC500Main:129925$563.0025x $215C 23 Oct 2026 (21d)
COPXJoint:178220$93.4020x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)
CRWVNeville:08655$125.455x $89C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)
GLDMain:129910$456.0010x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (77d)
GOOG-LC300Neville:086515$373.0015x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $360C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)]
GOOG-LC310Joint:17825$392.505x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340Neville:08655$398.005x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $360C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)]
HIMSMain:129915$17.4715x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)
IGVMain:129912$96.5012x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTCNeville:08655$114.005x $138C 23 Oct 2026 (21d)
IREN-LC25-1299Main:129920$44.0020x $42C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)
IREN-LC25-1782Joint:178220$44.0020x $42C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)
MSTR-LC125RetireInc:72914$161.004x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (49d)
MSTR-LC180Joint:178210$233.0010x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (49d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880Main:12995$1,028.605x $1125C 5 Oct 2026 (3d)
MU-LC970Neville:08652$1,220.002x $1125C 14 Oct 2026 (12d)
NVDAMain:129910$264.8010x $240C 9 Oct 2026 (7d)
QCOMRetireInc:72915$224.005x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (49d)
RKLBRetireInc:72916$141.556x $79C 9 Oct 2026 (7d)
SNDKNeville:08651$1,620.001x $1800C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)
SPCXNeville:08655$186.005x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (0d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2914 of 3090 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?
Predicted survivalNAvg predictedRealized OTM rateGap
0-60%20756%61%+5pp
60-70%38164%61%-3pp
70-80%51976%82%+6pp
80-90%68285%84%-0pp
90-100%112594%95%+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2914 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 12 graded weeks; last week 1.36x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 167 real buyback(s) recorded · 84 roll(s), net +$0.58/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 84 real rolls: buyback $6.69/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.58/sh (58 of 84 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all  |  2026-10-02 21:47