FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $17,199/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $5,200/mo ⚠ 1 negative E[net]
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $927,838 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| AMZN ↗⚡ER 27d ▲ UP +1.7% Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 5 | $252.53 | $270.76 | 5 × $275 23 Oct (21d) $475 cyc · $679/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14% | 5 × $280 30 Oct (28d)alt tenor $1,325 cyc · $1,420/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 14% | 4 × $260 9 Oct (7d) $532 cyc · $2,280/mo 78% survhist 82% · T:44%hist 41% | 🎯 4 × $257.50 9 Oct (7d) $780 cyc · $3,343/mo 70% survhist 82% · T:60%hist 46% | 5 × $255 9 Oct (7d) $1,445 cyc · $6,193/mo 61% survhist 64% · T:79%hist 68% | $1,422 | -$4,524 (13.3% IC) | 7.2% |
| IREN-LC45 ↗⚡ER 34d ▲ UP +7.5% Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 20 | $43.16 | $58.72 | 20 × $60 30 Oct (28d) $740 cyc · $793/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:9%hist 3% | 20 × $49.50 9 Oct (7d) $440 cyc · $1,886/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14% | 🎯 20 × $48 9 Oct (7d) $780 cyc · $3,343/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 25% | 19 × $46.50 9 Oct (7d) $1,159 cyc · $4,967/mo 78% survhist 82% · T:45%hist 41% | 18 × $44 9 Oct (7d) $2,376 cyc · $10,183/mo 60% survhist 68% · T:84%hist 80% | $5,471 | -$20,653 (344.2% IC) | 36.0% |
| IREN-LC50 ↗⚡ER 34d ▲ UP +7.5% RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 20 | $43.16 | $67.37 | 20 × $70 30 Oct (28d) $160 cyc · $171/mo 98% survhist 96% · T:4%hist 3% | 20 × $49.50 9 Oct (7d) $440 cyc · $1,886/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14% | 🎯 20 × $48 9 Oct (7d) $780 cyc · $3,343/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 25% | 19 × $46.50 9 Oct (7d) $1,159 cyc · $4,967/mo 78% survhist 82% · T:45%hist 41% | 18 × $44 9 Oct (7d) $2,376 cyc · $10,183/mo 60% survhist 68% · T:84%hist 80% | $4,076 | -$37,950 (277.0% IC) | 56.1% |
| APP ↗⚡ER 33d ▼ DOWN -4.0% RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 1 | $271.48 | $621.93 | — | 1 × $302.50 9 Oct (7d) $105 cyc · $450/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 14% | 1 × $295 9 Oct (7d) $195 cyc · $836/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 25% | 🎯 1 × $290 9 Oct (7d) $275 cyc · $1,179/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:40%hist 33% | 1 × $280 9 Oct (7d) $590 cyc · $2,529/mo 67% survhist 64% · T:68%hist 59% | $2,598 | -$32,918 (257.2% IC) | 129.1% |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| CRCL Neville:0865 | 5 | $88.06 | $87.00 BE | +1.2% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| DELL Main:1299 | 3 | $563.00 | $562.50 BE | +0.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| ETHA Main:1299 | 50 | $20.87 | $17.33 BE | +20.4% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| HOOD Joint:1782 | 10 | $118.04 | $114.95 BE | +2.7% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| SPY Neville:0865 | 12 | $771.61 | $764.00 BE | +1.0% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 18d ▲ UP +5.4% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 25 | $24.30 | $35.45 | 25 × $35 16 Oct (14d) $25 cyc · $54/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:3%hist 3% | 25 × $30 16 Oct (14d)alt tenor $375 cyc · $804/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 14% | 🎯 24 × $27.50 9 Oct (7d) $408 cyc · $1,749/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:28%hist 25% | 20 × $26 9 Oct (7d) $640 cyc · $2,743/mo 74% survhist 82% · T:53%hist 46% | 25 × $25.50 9 Oct (7d) $1,225 cyc · $5,250/mo 69% survhist 64% · T:65%hist 59% | $6,095 | -$18,664 (337.8% IC) | 45.9% |
| TOTAL (5) | 71 | following every 🎯 $3,023 cyc · $12,956/mo | $1,400 cyc · $1,696/mo 4 of 5 | $2,685 cyc · $6,445/mo | $2,695 cyc · $11,550/mo | $4,013 cyc · $17,199/mo | $8,012 cyc · $34,337/mo | $19,661 | -$114,709 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$275 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$2.71/sh | +$1,353 cycle +$1,828 [+$1,472…+$1,862] · 100% credit | 73% surv 51% | +$4,294 SAFE cap gain +$14,074 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$277 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$1.41/sh | +$703 cycle +$1,178 [+$771…+$1,006] · 100% credit | 75% surv 58% | +$4,990 SAFE cap gain +$14,770 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$277 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | +$1.41/sh | +$703 cycle +$1,178 [+$771…+$1,006] · 100% credit | 75% surv 58% | +$4,990 SAFE cap gain +$14,770 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$282 | 30 Oct 2026 | 18d left | -$0.92/sh | -$459 cycle +$16 [-$578…-$384] · 6% credit | 80% surv 70% | +$6,553 SAFE cap gain +$16,333 |
| budget: banked $475 debit $459 (97% used ≈ 2.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$16 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,002/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $679/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,930/mo) | -77% |
| vs normal income ($5,861/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $14/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($33,960) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($51,460) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-9,805 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 11d left | 3-10d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $272.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $272-276.00 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $276.00 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $275.00 (1.4σ) | $475 | $2,941 | +$12,721 | +$4,005 |
| +2.5% | $281.88 (1.8σ) | $-2,962 | $3,251 | +$13,031 | +$4,005 |
| +5% | $288.75 (2.2σ) | $-6,400 | $3,560 | +$13,340 | +$4,005 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,420/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,930/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($5,861/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $755/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($33,960) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($51,460) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-9,830 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 15d left | 3-14d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $277.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $277-282.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $282.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $280.00 (1.4σ) | $1,325 | $6,516 | +$16,296 | +$7,355 |
| +2.5% | $287.00 (1.8σ) | $-2,175 | $6,831 | +$16,611 | +$7,355 |
| +5% | $294.00 (2.2σ) | $-5,675 | $7,146 | +$16,926 | +$7,355 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$260 | 12 Oct 2026 | 6d left | +$0.38/sh | +$151 cycle +$683 [+$33…+$246] · 85% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$4,982 NOT cap gain +$4,798 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$277 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.74/sh | +$295 cycle +$827 [-$7…+$318] · 74% credit | 89% surv 84% | +$3,686 SAFE cap gain +$13,466 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$282 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.30/sh | -$120 cycle +$412 [-$527…-$121] · 15% credit | 92% surv 90% | +$5,496 SAFE cap gain +$15,276 |
| budget: banked $532 debit $120 (23% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$412 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,337/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,280/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,930/mo) | -22% |
| vs normal income ($5,861/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,748/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,772 |
| … as % of IC ($33,960) | 11.1% |
| … as % of ML ($51,460) | 7.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-7,836 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $257.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $257-261.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $261.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $260.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $532 | $-5,133 | +$4,647 | +$356 |
| +2.5% | $266.50 (1.5σ) | $-2,068 | $-4,190 | +$5,590 | -$2,244 |
| +5% | $273.00 (2.2σ) | $-4,668 | $-3,798 | +$5,982 | -$2,644 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$258 | 12 Oct 2026 | 6d left | +$0.43/sh | +$171 cycle +$951 [+$26…+$186] · 85% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$6,076 NOT cap gain +$3,704 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$275 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.83/sh | +$331 cycle +$1,111 [+$16…+$262] · 77% credit | 89% surv 84% | +$2,858 SAFE cap gain +$12,638 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$280 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.22/sh | -$86 cycle +$694 [-$492…-$185] · 11% credit | 92% surv 90% | +$4,665 SAFE cap gain +$14,445 |
| budget: banked $780 debit $86 (11% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$694 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,364/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,343/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,930/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($5,861/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,811/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,524 |
| … as % of IC ($33,960) | 13.3% |
| … as % of ML ($51,460) | 8.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-7,842 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $254.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $255-259.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $259.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $257.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $780 | $-6,247 | +$3,533 | +$604 |
| +2.5% | $263.94 (1.2σ) | $-1,795 | $-5,314 | +$4,466 | -$1,971 |
| +5% | $270.38 (1.9σ) | $-4,370 | $-4,668 | +$5,112 | -$3,396 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$255 | 12 Oct 2026 | 6d left | +$0.48/sh | +$239 cycle +$1,684 [+$24…+$179] · 80% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$6,750 NOT cap gain +$3,030 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$272 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.91/sh | +$457 cycle +$1,902 [-$22…+$295] · 73% credit | 89% surv 84% | +$2,989 SAFE cap gain +$12,769 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$277 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.13/sh | -$67 cycle +$1,378 [-$692…-$268] · 8% credit | 92% surv 90% | +$5,191 SAFE cap gain +$14,971 |
| budget: banked $1,445 debit $67 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,378 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,739/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,193/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,930/mo) | +111% |
| vs normal income ($5,861/mo) | 106% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,529/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,435 |
| … as % of IC ($33,960) | 18.9% |
| … as % of ML ($51,460) | 12.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-9,792 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $252.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $252-257.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $257.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $255.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,445 | $-6,989 | +$2,791 | +$1,225 |
| +2.5% | $261.38 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,742 | $-6,702 | +$3,078 | -$1,962 |
| +5% | $267.75 (1.6σ) | $-4,930 | $-6,415 | +$3,365 | -$5,025 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $267.92 (1.6σ) | $-5,015 | $-6,407 | +$3,373 | -$5,025 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$35 | 23 Oct 2026 | 14d left | -$0.07/sh | -$185 cycle -$160 | 66% surv 54% | -$1,545 NOT cap gain +$22,230 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 30 Oct 2026 | 21d left | +$0.18/sh | +$446 cycle +$471 | 68% surv 58% | +$550 SAFE cap gain +$24,325 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $54/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,625/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($5,250/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $54/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,092 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 19.8% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 2.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.2 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-23,888 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $34.65 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $35-35.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $35.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $35.00 (2.8σ) | $25 | $-1,360 | +$22,415 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $35.88 (3.0σ) | $-2,162 | $-1,717 | +$22,058 | +$0 |
| +5% | $36.75 (3.3σ) | $-4,350 | $-2,073 | +$21,702 | +$0 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (4.0σ) | $-11,750 | $-3,280 | +$20,495 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$31 | 30 Oct 2026 | 21d left | +$0.11/sh | +$271 cycle +$646 [-$107…+$1,225] · 70% credit | 68% surv 59% | -$9,737 NOT cap gain +$14,038 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 23 Oct 2026 | 14d left | -$0.04/sh | -$97 cycle +$278 [-$426…+$724] · 52% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$11,570 NOT cap gain +$12,205 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $804/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,625/mo) | -69% |
| vs normal income ($5,250/mo) | 15% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $804/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,242 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 239.7% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 23.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-23,925 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $29.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $30-30.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $30.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $30.00 (1.5σ) | $375 | $-11,473 | +$12,302 | +$350 |
| +2.5% | $30.75 (1.7σ) | $-1,500 | $-11,778 | +$11,997 | -$1,525 |
| +5% | $31.50 (1.9σ) | $-3,375 | $-12,084 | +$11,691 | -$3,400 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (4.0σ) | $-23,900 | $-15,430 | +$8,345 | -$12,150 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (24 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$29 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.20/sh | +$471 cycle +$879 [-$208…+$896] · 64% credit | 72% surv 65% | -$12,642 NOT cap gain +$11,133 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$28 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.09/sh | +$217 cycle +$625 [-$221…+$564] · 59% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$14,988 NOT cap gain +$8,787 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$152 cycle +$560 [-$551…+$549] · 47% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$10,868 NOT cap gain +$12,907 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$19 cycle +$427 [-$485…+$427] · 45% credit | 65% surv 53% | -$16,651 NOT cap gain +$7,124 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,749/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,625/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($5,250/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,751/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,664 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 337.8% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 33.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (24 ct) | $-23,004 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $27.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.50 (1.2σ) | $408 | $-16,670 | +$7,105 | +$384 |
| +2.5% | $28.19 (1.4σ) | $-1,242 | $-16,881 | +$6,894 | -$1,266 |
| +5% | $28.88 (1.7σ) | $-2,892 | $-17,093 | +$6,682 | -$2,916 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.7σ) | $-28,896 | $-20,896 | +$2,879 | -$17,616 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.55/sh | +$1,101 cycle +$1,741 [+$452…+$1,095] · 92% credit | 69% surv 59% | -$17,007 NOT cap gain +$6,768 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$116 cycle +$756 [-$394…+$84] · 31% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$17,992 NOT cap gain +$5,783 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.00/sh | +$7 cycle +$647 [-$579…-$7] · 25% credit | 65% surv 53% | -$19,566 NOT cap gain +$4,209 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.00/sh | +$5 cycle +$645 [-$801…-$90] · 22% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$13,918 NOT cap gain +$9,857 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$30 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.27/sh | -$537 cycle +$103 [-$1,466…-$675] · 7% credit | 79% surv 76% | -$12,367 NOT cap gain +$11,408 |
| budget: banked $640 debit $537 (84% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$103 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $1,963/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,743/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,625/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($5,250/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,754/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,253 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 330.4% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 32.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.5 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-19,310 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $640 | $-19,573 | +$4,202 | +$620 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-660 | $-19,513 | +$4,262 | -$680 |
| +5% | $27.30 (1.1σ) | $-1,960 | $-19,453 | +$4,322 | -$1,980 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.7σ) | $-26,780 | $-20,660 | +$3,115 | -$17,380 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$26 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.53/sh | +$1,318 cycle +$2,543 [+$389…+$1,147] · 87% credit | 69% surv 59% | -$17,257 NOT cap gain +$6,518 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$0.12/sh | +$310 cycle +$1,535 [-$830…+$62] · 28% credit | 72% surv 66% | -$16,172 NOT cap gain +$7,603 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.05/sh | +$118 cycle +$1,343 [-$621…-$32] · 23% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$18,456 NOT cap gain +$5,319 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.00/sh | +$5 cycle +$1,230 [-$834…-$152] · 20% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$20,034 NOT cap gain +$3,741 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$30 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.48/sh | -$1,208 cycle +$17 [-$2,689…-$1,572] · 1% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$11,412 NOT cap gain +$12,363 |
| budget: banked $1,225 debit $1,208 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $1,681/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,625/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($5,250/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,642 |
| … as % of IC ($5,525) | 427.9% |
| … as % of ML ($55,525) | 42.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.5 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-24,038 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-26.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,225 | $-20,039 | +$3,736 | +$1,200 |
| +2.5% | $26.14 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-369 | $-20,299 | +$3,476 | -$394 |
| +5% | $26.78 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,963 | $-20,559 | +$3,216 | -$1,988 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (5.7σ) | $-34,300 | $-25,830 | -$2,055 | -$22,550 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$60 | 6 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.97/sh | +$1,946 cycle +$2,686 [+$2,036…+$3,378] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$1,721 NOT cap gain +$32,989 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$67 | 13 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.13/sh | +$264 cycle +$1,004 [+$312…+$1,571] · 100% credit | 79% surv 71% | +$8,900 SAFE cap gain +$43,610 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$62 | 6 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.16/sh | +$324 cycle +$1,064 [+$226…+$1,513] · 89% credit | 71% surv 60% | -$40 NOT cap gain +$34,670 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$68 | 13 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$0.15/sh | -$306 cycle +$434 [-$323…+$955] · 50% credit | 80% surv 73% | +$10,130 SAFE cap gain +$44,840 |
| budget: banked $740 debit $306 (41% used ≈ 1.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$434 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $9,455/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $793/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,939/mo) | -84% |
| vs normal income ($9,879/mo) | 8% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $609/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-34,760 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 15d left | 3-14d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $59.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $59-60.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $60.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $60.00 (1.9σ) | $740 | $-3,667 | +$31,043 | +$8,080 |
| +2.5% | $61.50 (2.1σ) | $-2,260 | $-3,967 | +$30,743 | +$8,080 |
| +5% | $63.00 (2.3σ) | $-5,260 | $-4,267 | +$30,443 | +$8,080 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.04/sh | +$2,086 cycle +$2,526 [+$2,135…+$2,848] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$20,781 NOT cap gain +$13,929 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$66 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.24/sh | +$476 cycle +$916 [+$219…+$1,287] · 83% credit | 91% surv 90% | +$7,912 SAFE cap gain +$42,622 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$300 cycle +$740 [+$80…+$874] · 79% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$18,364 NOT cap gain +$16,346 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,886/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,939/mo) | -62% |
| vs normal income ($9,879/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,702/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$17,993 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 299.9% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 19.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-34,760 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.01 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.74 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.74 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.50 (1.5σ) | $440 | $-22,867 | +$11,843 | -$220 |
| +2.5% | $50.74 (1.7σ) | $-2,035 | $-23,114 | +$11,596 | -$2,695 |
| +5% | $51.98 (2.0σ) | $-4,510 | $-23,362 | +$11,348 | -$5,170 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.1σ) | $-13,560 | $-24,267 | +$10,443 | -$13,220 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.99/sh | +$1,980 cycle +$2,760 [+$1,827…+$2,565] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$23,247 NOT cap gain +$11,463 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$59 | 6 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.24/sh | +$486 cycle +$1,266 [-$104…+$967] · 68% credit | 87% surv 84% | -$5,238 NOT cap gain +$29,472 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$50 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.10/sh | +$204 cycle +$984 [-$242…+$519] · 54% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$20,820 NOT cap gain +$13,890 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$65 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.05/sh | +$95 cycle +$875 [-$542…+$563] · 47% credit | 92% surv 91% | +$5,171 SAFE cap gain +$39,881 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,343/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,939/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($9,879/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,159/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$20,653 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 344.2% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 22.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-34,750 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.1σ) | $780 | $-25,227 | +$9,483 | +$120 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.4σ) | $-1,620 | $-25,467 | +$9,243 | -$2,280 |
| +5% | $50.40 (1.7σ) | $-4,020 | $-25,707 | +$9,003 | -$4,680 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.1σ) | $-16,220 | $-26,927 | +$7,783 | -$15,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.94/sh | +$1,782 cycle +$2,941 [+$1,544…+$2,041] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$25,733 NOT cap gain +$8,977 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$55 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$1.04/sh | +$1,978 cycle +$3,137 [+$1,484…+$2,176] · 100% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$9,634 NOT cap gain +$25,076 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.50/sh | +$953 cycle +$2,112 [+$352…+$1,076] · 91% credit | 88% surv 85% | -$5,492 NOT cap gain +$29,218 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$106 cycle +$1,265 [-$407…+$153] · 35% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$23,206 NOT cap gain +$11,504 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$63 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$0.12/sh | -$230 cycle +$929 [-$1,009…-$167] · 20% credit | 93% surv 92% | +$1,824 SAFE cap gain +$36,534 |
| budget: banked $1,159 debit $230 (20% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$929 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,946/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,967/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,939/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($9,879/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,831/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,053 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 367.5% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 23.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-33,031 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-47.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,159 | $-27,515 | +$7,195 | +$532 |
| +2.5% | $47.66 (1.0σ) | $-1,050 | $-27,631 | +$7,079 | -$1,677 |
| +5% | $48.83 (1.3σ) | $-3,259 | $-27,747 | +$6,962 | -$3,886 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.1σ) | $-17,841 | $-28,565 | +$6,145 | -$17,518 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.85/sh | +$1,539 cycle +$3,915 [+$1,204…+$1,441] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$29,226 NOT cap gain +$5,484 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,296 cycle +$3,672 [+$558…+$993] · 96% credit | 85% surv 81% | -$13,566 NOT cap gain +$21,144 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.21/sh | +$381 cycle +$2,757 [-$531…+$16] · 26% credit | 89% surv 87% | -$9,081 NOT cap gain +$25,629 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$251 cycle +$2,627 [-$351…+$13] · 26% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$27,211 NOT cap gain +$7,499 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,183/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,939/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($9,879/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,093/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,114 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 401.9% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 25.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-31,311 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-45.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,376 | $-30,765 | +$3,945 | +$1,782 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (≤1σ, normal week) | $396 | $-30,765 | +$3,945 | -$198 |
| +5% | $46.20 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,584 | $-30,765 | +$3,945 | -$2,178 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (3.1σ) | $-20,124 | $-30,865 | +$3,845 | -$19,818 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$70 | 6 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$1.23/sh | +$2,459 cycle +$2,619 | 69% surv 55% | -$2,408 NOT cap gain +$50,922 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$73 | 6 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.01/sh | +$29 cycle +$189 | 72% surv 61% | +$265 SAFE cap gain +$53,595 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 13 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.10/sh | +$194 cycle +$354 | 83% surv 75% | +$16,630 SAFE cap gain +$69,960 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $171/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,939/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($9,879/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-73/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-53,460 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 15d left | 3-14d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $69.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $69-70.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $70.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $70.00 (3.1σ) | $160 | $-4,867 | +$48,463 | +$10,100 |
| +2.5% | $71.75 (3.3σ) | $-3,340 | $-5,217 | +$48,113 | +$10,100 |
| +5% | $73.50 (3.5σ) | $-6,840 | $-5,567 | +$47,763 | +$10,100 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.04/sh | +$2,086 cycle +$2,526 [+$2,135…+$2,848] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$39,401 NOT cap gain +$13,929 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$66 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.24/sh | +$476 cycle +$916 [+$219…+$1,287] · 83% credit | 91% surv 90% | -$10,708 NOT cap gain +$42,622 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$52 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$300 cycle +$740 [+$80…+$874] · 79% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$36,984 NOT cap gain +$16,346 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,886/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,939/mo) | -62% |
| vs normal income ($9,879/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,641/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,290 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 257.6% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 32.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-53,380 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.01 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.74 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.74 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.50 (1.5σ) | $440 | $-41,487 | +$11,843 | +$380 |
| +2.5% | $50.74 (1.7σ) | $-2,035 | $-41,734 | +$11,596 | -$2,095 |
| +5% | $51.98 (2.0σ) | $-4,510 | $-41,982 | +$11,348 | -$4,570 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.7σ) | $-27,420 | $-44,273 | +$9,057 | -$27,480 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.99/sh | +$1,980 cycle +$2,760 [+$1,827…+$2,565] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$41,867 NOT cap gain +$11,463 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$59 | 6 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.24/sh | +$486 cycle +$1,266 [-$104…+$967] · 68% credit | 87% surv 84% | -$23,858 NOT cap gain +$29,472 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$50 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.10/sh | +$204 cycle +$984 [-$242…+$519] · 54% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$39,440 NOT cap gain +$13,890 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$65 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.05/sh | +$95 cycle +$875 [-$542…+$563] · 47% credit | 92% surv 91% | -$13,449 NOT cap gain +$39,881 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,343/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,939/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($9,879/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,098/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,950 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 277.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 35.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-53,370 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.1σ) | $780 | $-43,847 | +$9,483 | +$720 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.4σ) | $-1,620 | $-44,087 | +$9,243 | -$1,680 |
| +5% | $50.40 (1.7σ) | $-4,020 | $-44,327 | +$9,003 | -$4,080 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.7σ) | $-30,080 | $-46,933 | +$6,397 | -$30,140 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.94/sh | +$1,782 cycle +$2,941 [+$1,544…+$2,041] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$44,383 NOT cap gain +$8,947 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$55 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$1.04/sh | +$1,978 cycle +$3,137 [+$1,484…+$2,176] · 100% credit | 84% surv 80% | -$28,284 NOT cap gain +$25,046 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$58 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.50/sh | +$953 cycle +$2,112 [+$352…+$1,076] · 91% credit | 88% surv 85% | -$23,909 NOT cap gain +$29,421 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$49 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$106 cycle +$1,265 [-$407…+$153] · 35% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$41,856 NOT cap gain +$11,474 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$63 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$0.12/sh | -$230 cycle +$929 [-$1,009…-$167] · 20% credit | 93% surv 92% | -$16,092 NOT cap gain +$37,238 |
| budget: banked $1,159 debit $230 (20% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$929 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,946/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,967/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,939/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($9,879/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,729/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,485 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 280.9% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 35.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-50,720 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-47.14 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.14 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,159 | $-46,165 | +$7,165 | +$1,102 |
| +2.5% | $47.66 (1.0σ) | $-1,050 | $-46,281 | +$7,049 | -$1,107 |
| +5% | $48.83 (1.3σ) | $-3,259 | $-46,397 | +$6,932 | -$3,316 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.7σ) | $-31,008 | $-47,858 | +$5,472 | -$31,065 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.85/sh | +$1,539 cycle +$3,915 [+$1,204…+$1,441] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$47,906 NOT cap gain +$5,424 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$53 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,296 cycle +$3,672 [+$558…+$993] · 96% credit | 85% surv 81% | -$32,246 NOT cap gain +$21,084 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$56 | 13 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.21/sh | +$381 cycle +$2,757 [-$531…+$16] · 26% credit | 89% surv 87% | -$27,761 NOT cap gain +$25,569 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$46 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$251 cycle +$2,627 [-$351…+$13] · 26% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$45,891 NOT cap gain +$7,439 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,183/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,939/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($9,879/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,951/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$39,681 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 289.6% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 36.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-48,069 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-45.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,376 | $-49,445 | +$3,885 | +$2,322 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (≤1σ, normal week) | $396 | $-49,445 | +$3,885 | +$342 |
| +5% | $46.20 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,584 | $-49,445 | +$3,885 | -$1,638 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (4.7σ) | $-32,598 | $-49,445 | +$3,885 | -$32,652 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$302 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.65/sh | +$165 cycle +$270 [+$68…+$335] · 84% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$33,448 NOT cap gain +$3,062 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$311 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$2.45/sh | +$245 cycle +$350 [+$64…+$411] · 81% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$32,601 NOT cap gain +$3,909 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$316 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$1.79/sh | +$179 cycle +$284 [-$9…+$338] · 74% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$32,217 NOT cap gain +$4,293 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$321 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$0.81/sh | -$81 cycle +$24 [-$316…+$64] · 36% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$32,028 NOT cap gain +$4,482 |
| budget: banked $105 debit $81 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $974/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $450/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,159/mo) | -61% |
| vs normal income ($2,319/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $297/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,838 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 248.7% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 65.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 13.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-36,530 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $299.48 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $299-303.75 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $303.75 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $302.50 (1.5σ) | $105 | $-33,613 | +$2,897 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $310.06 (1.8σ) | $-651 | $-33,689 | +$2,821 | -$656 |
| +5% | $317.62 (2.2σ) | $-1,408 | $-33,764 | +$2,746 | -$1,412 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (14.9σ) | $-28,445 | $-36,468 | +$42 | -$9,650 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$295 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.83/sh | +$183 cycle +$378 [+$36…+$297] · 81% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$34,016 NOT cap gain +$2,494 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$304 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$2.61/sh | +$261 cycle +$456 [+$18…+$376] · 77% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$33,170 NOT cap gain +$3,340 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$309 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$1.95/sh | +$195 cycle +$390 [-$52…+$306] · 69% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$32,786 NOT cap gain +$3,724 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$299 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.16/sh | +$16 cycle +$211 [-$170…+$111] · 41% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$33,865 NOT cap gain +$2,645 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$319 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$1.09/sh | -$109 cycle +$86 [-$411…-$18] · 23% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$32,191 NOT cap gain +$4,319 |
| budget: banked $195 debit $109 (56% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $913/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $836/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,159/mo) | -28% |
| vs normal income ($2,319/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $683/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,498 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 253.9% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 67.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 14.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-36,530 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $292.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $292-297.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $297.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $295.00 (1.1σ) | $195 | $-34,198 | +$2,312 | +$190 |
| +2.5% | $302.38 (1.5σ) | $-542 | $-34,272 | +$2,238 | -$548 |
| +5% | $309.75 (1.8σ) | $-1,280 | $-34,346 | +$2,164 | -$1,285 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (14.9σ) | $-29,105 | $-37,128 | -$618 | -$10,310 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$290 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$1.94/sh | +$194 cycle +$469 [+$25…+$251] · 79% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$34,374 NOT cap gain +$2,136 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$299 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$2.71/sh | +$271 cycle +$546 [+$1…+$308] · 75% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$33,531 NOT cap gain +$2,979 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$304 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$2.05/sh | +$205 cycle +$480 [-$68…+$236] · 65% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$33,147 NOT cap gain +$3,363 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$294 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.27/sh | +$27 cycle +$302 [-$180…+$58] · 35% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$34,224 NOT cap gain +$2,286 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$319 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$2.15/sh | -$215 cycle +$60 [-$556…-$207] · 9% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$32,217 NOT cap gain +$4,293 |
| budget: banked $275 debit $215 (78% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$60 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $763/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,179/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,159/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($2,319/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,026/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,918 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 257.2% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 68.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 14.2 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-36,522 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $287.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $287-292.88 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $292.88 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $290.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $275 | $-34,568 | +$1,942 | +$270 |
| +2.5% | $297.25 (1.2σ) | $-450 | $-34,641 | +$1,869 | -$455 |
| +5% | $304.50 (1.6σ) | $-1,175 | $-34,713 | +$1,797 | -$1,180 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (14.9σ) | $-29,525 | $-37,548 | -$1,038 | -$10,730 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$280 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$2.15/sh | +$215 cycle +$805 [-$5…+$163] · 74% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$34,938 NOT cap gain +$1,572 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$289 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$2.89/sh | +$289 cycle +$879 [-$52…+$197] · 66% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$34,098 NOT cap gain +$2,412 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$294 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | +$2.22/sh | +$222 cycle +$812 [-$119…+$127] · 52% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$33,715 NOT cap gain +$2,795 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$284 | 16 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.48/sh | +$48 cycle +$638 [-$213…-$22] · 21% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$34,788 NOT cap gain +$1,722 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$329 | 30 Oct 2026 | 24d left | -$4.96/sh | -$496 cycle +$94 [-$1,006…-$642] | 89% surv 88% | -$31,283 NOT cap gain +$5,227 |
| budget: banked $590 debit $496 (84% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$94 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $375/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,529/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,159/mo) | +118% |
| vs normal income ($2,319/mo) | 109% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,376/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,603 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 262.5% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 69.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 14.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-36,540 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $277.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $277-286.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $286.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $280.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $590 | $-35,153 | +$1,357 | +$585 |
| +2.5% | $287.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-110 | $-35,223 | +$1,287 | -$115 |
| +5% | $294.00 (1.1σ) | $-810 | $-35,293 | +$1,217 | -$815 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (14.9σ) | $-30,210 | $-38,233 | -$1,723 | -$11,415 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $41.5C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) | $43.12 | $41.66 | $1.67 | $0.05 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $1.62/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks IREN 1:1); only $0.05 is live theta (~$100). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This strike caps $9.61/sh BELOW the CC-SS $51.11: assignment locks about $19,214 before premium, so the roll is about protecting recovery, not just income. ▸ Gate on price: hold while IREN is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $44, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 20x $41.5C at ~$1.71 ($3,425), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $41.5C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) | $43.12 | $41.67 | $1.67 | $0.05 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $1.62/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks IREN 1:1); only $0.05 is live theta (~$100). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This strike caps $9.61/sh BELOW the CC-SS $51.11: assignment locks about $19,214 before premium, so the roll is about protecting recovery, not just income. ▸ Gate on price: hold while IREN is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $44, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 20x $41.5C at ~$1.71 ($3,425), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $89C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) | $91.81 | $89.41 | $3.03 | $0.22 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $2.81/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks CRWV 1:1); only $0.22 is live theta (~$110). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This strike caps $38.42/sh BELOW the CC-SS $127.42: assignment locks about $19,212 before premium, so the roll is about protecting recovery, not just income. ▸ Gate on price: hold while CRWV is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $92, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $89C at ~$3.12 ($1,558), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) | $153.35 | $156.11 | $0.64 | $0.64 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.65 OTM = 1.1% (0.2x a typical daily move). The $0.64 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$532 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $37.05/sh BELOW the $192.05 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $18,525 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $156.11 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $337.5C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) | $331.35 | $337.74 | $0.07 | $0.07 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.15 OTM = 1.9% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $0.07 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$97 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $337.74 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1125C 5 Oct 2026 (3d) | $1,094.42 | $1,129.00 | $6.92 | $6.92 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 30.58 OTM = 2.8% (1.0x a typical daily move). The $6.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,977 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,129.00 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $1125C at ~$6.96 ($3,481), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $240C 9 Oct 2026 (7d) | $236.82 | $242.02 | $2.46 | $2.46 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.18 OTM = 1.3% (0.7x a typical daily move). The $2.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $242.02 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $240C at ~$2.73 ($2,735), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1125C 14 Oct 2026 (12d) | $1,094.42 | $1,137.74 | $27.38 | $27.38 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 30.58 OTM = 2.8% (0.9x a typical daily move). The $27.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,538 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $102.19/sh BELOW the $1,227.19 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $20,438 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,137.74 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 2x $1125C at ~$28.51 ($5,703), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) | $109.21 | $112.23 | $2.16 | $2.16 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.79 OTM = 1.6% (0.8x a typical daily move). The $2.16 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,419 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $112.23 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 12x $111C at ~$2.40 ($2,880), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (49d) | $169.23 | $180.96 | $17.15 | $17.15 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.77 OTM = 0.5% (0.1x a typical daily move). The $17.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (49d) | $169.23 | $180.95 | $17.15 | $17.15 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.77 OTM = 0.5% (0.1x a typical daily move). The $17.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $170C at ~$17.40 ($17,400), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1800C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) | $1,735.22 | $1,811.50 | $2.65 | $2.65 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 64.78 OTM = 3.7% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $2.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,145 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,811.50 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) | $85.33 | $90.65 | $0.05 | $0.05 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.67 OTM = 5.5% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $0.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,206 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $89.55 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) | $30.22 | $32.28 | $0.04 | $0.04 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.78 OTM = 5.9% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $0.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$345 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $32.28 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 100x $26C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) | $24.27 | $26.26 | $0.03 | $0.03 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.73 OTM = 7.1% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $0.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,131 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $25.87 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $79C 9 Oct 2026 (7d) | $72.78 | $79.83 | $0.88 | $0.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.22 OTM = 8.5% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $0.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$470 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $79.83 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) | $341.26 | $359.26 | $3.10 | $3.10 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.74 OTM = 4.0% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $3.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) | $341.26 | $362.52 | $2.14 | $2.14 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.74 OTM = 5.5% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $2.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,712 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $362.52 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) | $341.26 | $362.52 | $2.14 | $2.14 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 18.74 OTM = 5.5% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $2.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,237 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $362.52 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $215C 23 Oct 2026 (21d) | $198.99 | $218.75 | $5.95 | $5.95 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.01 OTM = 8.0% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $5.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$9,258 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $218.75 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $138C 23 Oct 2026 (21d) | $123.94 | $140.81 | $4.05 | $4.05 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.06 OTM = 11.3% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $4.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,382 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $140.81 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (49d) | $184.78 | $224.53 | $4.22 | $4.22 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 35.22 OTM = 19.1% (5.6x a typical daily move). The $4.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (77d) | $384.18 | $419.00 | $6.70 | $6.70 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.82 OTM = 7.5% (5.3x a typical daily move). The $6.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,949 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $419.00 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (77d) | $198.99 | $278.82 | $6.00 | $6.00 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 71.01 OTM = 35.7% (8.4x a typical daily move). The $6.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,020 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $278.82 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $28.00 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $28.00 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 23.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $28.00 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 57.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $13.35 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.6% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $33.74 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 39.9% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $49.26 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 30.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $12.18 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 27.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $12.18 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 70.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $334.64 | 5x $338C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (77d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $215C 23 Oct 2026 (21d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $90C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $89C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (77d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $360C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $360C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $32C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $111C 16 Oct 2026 (14d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $138C 23 Oct 2026 (21d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $42C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $42C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (49d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (49d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1125C 5 Oct 2026 (3d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1125C 14 Oct 2026 (12d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $240C 9 Oct 2026 (7d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (49d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $79C 9 Oct 2026 (7d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1800C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $155C 2 Oct 2026 (0d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 207 | 56% | 61% | +5pp |
| 60-70% | 381 | 64% | 61% | -3pp |
| 70-80% | 519 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 682 | 85% | 84% | -0pp |
| 90-100% | 1125 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2914 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 12 graded weeks; last week 1.36x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 167 real buyback(s) recorded · 84 roll(s), net +$0.58/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 84 real rolls: buyback $6.69/sh, replacement credit financed 109% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.58/sh (58 of 84 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.