FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $40,118/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $18,021/mo
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $955,038 locked in if all 10 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| IREN-LC45 ↗⚡ER 24d ▲ UP +3.5% Neville:0865 · This Fri | 20 | $36.20 | $58.27 | 20 × $60 30 Oct (18d) $100 cyc · $167/mo 99% survhist 95% · T:2%hist 4% | 20 × $41 16 Oct (4d) $300 cyc · $2,250/mo 91% survhist 95% · T:19%hist 14% | 18 × $40 16 Oct (4d) $414 cyc · $3,105/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:27%hist 24% | 🎯 17 × $39 16 Oct (4d) $629 cyc · $4,718/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:39%hist 32% | 18 × $37.50 16 Oct (4d) $1,206 cyc · $9,045/mo 67% survhist 64% · T:67%hist 57% | $6,237 | -$32,131 (535.5% IC) | 61.0% |
| IREN-LC50 ↗⚡ER 24d ▲ UP +3.5% RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 20 | $36.20 | $66.73 | 20 × $65 23 Oct (11d) $20 cyc · $55/mo 99+% survhist 95% · T:1%hist 4% | 20 × $41 16 Oct (4d) $300 cyc · $2,250/mo 91% survhist 95% · T:19%hist 14% | 18 × $40 16 Oct (4d) $414 cyc · $3,105/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:27%hist 24% | 🎯 17 × $39 16 Oct (4d) $629 cyc · $4,718/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:39%hist 32% | 18 × $37.50 16 Oct (4d) $1,206 cyc · $9,045/mo 67% survhist 64% · T:67%hist 57% | $4,843 | -$46,505 (339.4% IC) | 84.3% |
| APP ↗⚡ER 23d +1.0% RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 1 | $280.44 | $610.48 | — | 1 × $305 16 Oct (4d) $75 cyc · $562/mo 91% survhist 95% · T:19%hist 14% | 🎯 1 × $300 16 Oct (4d) $140 cyc · $1,050/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 24% | 1 × $295 16 Oct (4d) $200 cyc · $1,500/mo 80% survhist 82% · T:41%hist 42% | 1 × $287.50 16 Oct (4d) $380 cyc · $2,850/mo 67% survhist 64% · T:68%hist 57% | $2,995 | -$30,908 (241.5% IC) | 117.7% |
| COPX ↗ -0.4% Joint:1782 · This Fri | 20 | $85.47 | $96.79 | 20 × $97 6 Nov (25d) $1,000 cyc · $1,200/mo 88% survhist 86% · T:24%hist 24% | 20 × $93 16 Oct (4d) $200 cyc · $1,500/mo 95% survhist 95% · T:9%hist 4% | 16 × $90 16 Oct (4d) $560 cyc · $4,200/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 24% | 🎯 17 × $89 16 Oct (4d) $850 cyc · $6,375/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:41%hist 42% | 18 × $87 16 Oct (4d) $1,710 cyc · $12,825/mo 65% survhist 64% · T:71%hist 69% | $6,416 | -$12,396 (21.8% IC) | 13.3% |
| MU-LC970 ↗ ▼ DOWN -3.8% Neville:0865 · This Fri | 2 | $989.42 | $1,227.50 | 2 × $1230 6 Nov (25d) $760 cyc · $912/mo 95% survhist 95% · T:10%hist 14% | 2 × $1065 16 Oct (4d) $750 cyc · $5,625/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:20%hist 14% | 2 × $1072.50 16 Oct (4d) $620 cyc · $4,650/mo 92% survhist 95% · T:17%hist 14% | 🎯 2 × $1055 16 Oct (4d) $970 cyc · $7,275/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:26%hist 24% | 2 × $1030 16 Oct (4d) $1,840 cyc · $13,800/mo 77% survhist 82% · T:46%hist 42% | $9,621 | -$33,529 (67.1% IC) | 24.1% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗⚡ER 8d -0.1% Main:1299 · This Fri | 125 | $20.31 | $35.88 | — | 125 × $23 16 Oct (4d) $1,000 cyc · $7,500/mo 91% survhist 95% · T:19%hist 14% | 72 × $22 16 Oct (4d) $1,368 cyc · $10,260/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 32% | 🎯 109 × $22 16 Oct (4d) $2,071 cyc · $15,532/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 32% | 97 × $21 16 Oct (4d) $4,171 cyc · $31,282/mo 66% survhist 64% · T:70%hist 57% | $13,284 | -$149,184 (540.0% IC) | 76.6% |
| TOTAL (6) | 188 | following every 🎯 $5,289 cyc · $39,668/mo | $1,880 cyc · $2,333/mo 4 of 6 | $2,625 cyc · $19,688/mo | $3,516 cyc · $26,370/mo | $5,349 cyc · $40,118/mo | $10,513 cyc · $78,848/mo | $43,396 | -$304,653 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$60 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$1.26/sh | +$2,517 cycle +$2,617 | 68% surv 55% | +$8,094 SAFE cap gain +$58,404 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$63 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.17/sh | +$347 cycle +$447 | 72% surv 62% | +$12,488 SAFE cap gain +$62,798 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$63 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.17/sh | +$347 cycle +$447 | 72% surv 62% | +$12,488 SAFE cap gain +$62,798 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $167/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,473/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($8,946/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-126/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-50,340 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 10d left | 3-9d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $59.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $59-60.06 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $60.06 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $60.00 (4.0σ) | $100 | $5,577 | +$55,887 | +$6,060 |
| +2.5% | $61.50 (4.3σ) | $-2,900 | $6,093 | +$56,403 | +$6,060 |
| +5% | $63.00 (4.5σ) | $-5,900 | $6,609 | +$56,919 | +$6,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,799 cycle +$2,099 [+$1,804…+$2,261] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$36,960 NOT cap gain +$13,350 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$48 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.26/sh | +$522 cycle +$822 [-$26…+$903] · 74% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$22,297 NOT cap gain +$28,013 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$43 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.05/sh | +$96 cycle +$396 [-$300…+$400] · 57% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$33,271 NOT cap gain +$17,039 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$49 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.09/sh | +$188 cycle +$488 [-$456…+$539] · 57% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$20,287 NOT cap gain +$30,023 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.05/sh | -$108 cycle +$192 [-$825…+$222] · 38% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$18,239 NOT cap gain +$32,071 |
| budget: banked $300 debit $108 (36% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$192 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,599/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,473/mo) | -50% |
| vs normal income ($8,946/mo) | 25% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,958/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$34,241 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 570.7% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 36.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-50,330 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.7σ) | $300 | $-38,759 | +$11,551 | +$260 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (2.1σ) | $-1,750 | $-38,406 | +$11,904 | -$1,790 |
| +5% | $43.05 (2.4σ) | $-3,800 | $-38,053 | +$12,257 | -$3,840 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (7.3σ) | $-30,700 | $-33,427 | +$16,883 | -$30,740 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,549 cycle +$1,963 [+$1,539…+$1,890] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$39,436 NOT cap gain +$10,874 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$47 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.20/sh | +$354 cycle +$768 [-$178…+$533] · 64% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$24,691 NOT cap gain +$25,619 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.04/sh | +$65 cycle +$479 [-$553…+$217] · 42% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$22,636 NOT cap gain +$27,674 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.02/sh | +$31 cycle +$445 [-$372…+$183] · 40% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$35,562 NOT cap gain +$14,748 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.21/sh | -$380 cycle +$34 [-$1,124…-$281] · 12% credit | 88% surv 86% | -$18,393 NOT cap gain +$31,917 |
| budget: banked $414 debit $380 (92% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,873/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,105/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,473/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($8,946/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,824/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,473 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 541.2% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 34.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-45,297 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (1.4σ) | $414 | $-40,985 | +$9,325 | +$378 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.7σ) | $-1,386 | $-40,441 | +$9,869 | -$1,422 |
| +5% | $42.00 (2.1σ) | $-3,186 | $-39,897 | +$10,413 | -$3,222 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (7.3σ) | $-29,286 | $-32,009 | +$18,301 | -$29,322 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.82/sh | +$1,398 cycle +$2,027 [+$1,294…+$1,703] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$41,714 NOT cap gain +$8,596 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.32/sh | +$544 cycle +$1,173 [-$1…+$716] · 75% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$28,972 NOT cap gain +$21,338 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.13/sh | +$223 cycle +$852 [-$148…+$390] · 58% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$38,669 NOT cap gain +$11,641 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.14/sh | +$230 cycle +$859 [-$381…+$370] · 46% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$26,942 NOT cap gain +$23,368 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.33/sh | -$564 cycle +$65 [-$1,387…-$495] · 4% credit | 90% surv 88% | -$18,360 NOT cap gain +$31,950 |
| budget: banked $629 debit $564 (90% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$65 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $1,411/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,718/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,473/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($8,946/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,442/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,131 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 535.5% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 34.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-42,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (1.0σ) | $629 | $-43,112 | +$7,198 | +$595 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (1.3σ) | $-1,028 | $-42,484 | +$7,826 | -$1,062 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.7σ) | $-2,686 | $-41,856 | +$8,454 | -$2,720 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (7.3σ) | $-29,121 | $-31,842 | +$18,468 | -$29,155 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.77/sh | +$1,380 cycle +$2,586 [+$1,166…+$1,442] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$44,673 NOT cap gain +$5,637 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$42 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.43/sh | +$768 cycle +$1,974 [+$77…+$670] · 79% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$34,033 NOT cap gain +$16,277 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.08/sh | +$152 cycle +$1,358 [-$382…+$75] · 30% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$41,682 NOT cap gain +$8,628 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.05/sh | +$90 cycle +$1,296 [-$786…-$66] · 21% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$30,023 NOT cap gain +$20,287 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.38/sh | -$685 cycle +$521 [-$1,826…-$936] | 90% surv 90% | -$21,422 NOT cap gain +$28,888 |
| budget: banked $1,206 debit $685 (57% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$521 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,239/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,045/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,473/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($8,946/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,764/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$36,181 |
| … as % of IC ($6,000) | 603.0% |
| … as % of ML ($94,000) | 38.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.0 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-45,324 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,206 | $-46,053 | +$4,257 | +$1,170 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-482 | $-45,543 | +$4,767 | -$518 |
| +5% | $39.38 (1.1σ) | $-2,169 | $-45,033 | +$5,277 | -$2,205 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.50 (7.3σ) | $-32,994 | $-35,717 | +$14,593 | -$33,030 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 30 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$1.56/sh | +$3,127 cycle +$3,147 | 68% surv 54% | +$439 SAFE cap gain +$69,099 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$69 | 30 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$0.04/sh | +$81 cycle +$101 | 73% surv 65% | +$6,096 SAFE cap gain +$74,756 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$74 | 6 Nov 2026 | 20d left | +$0.19/sh | +$384 cycle +$404 | 78% surv 72% | +$17,848 SAFE cap gain +$86,508 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $55/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,473/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($8,946/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-361/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,431 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 25.0% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 3.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-68,690 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $64.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $64-65.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $65.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $65.00 (6.2σ) | $20 | $-2,688 | +$65,972 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $66.62 (6.6σ) | $-3,230 | $-2,217 | +$66,443 | +$0 |
| +5% | $68.25 (6.9σ) | $-6,480 | $-1,745 | +$66,915 | +$0 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,799 cycle +$2,099 [+$1,804…+$2,261] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$55,569 NOT cap gain +$13,091 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$48 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.26/sh | +$522 cycle +$822 [-$26…+$903] · 74% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$41,273 NOT cap gain +$27,387 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$43 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.05/sh | +$96 cycle +$396 [-$300…+$400] · 57% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$52,004 NOT cap gain +$16,656 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$49 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.09/sh | +$188 cycle +$488 [-$456…+$539] · 57% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$39,318 NOT cap gain +$29,342 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.05/sh | -$108 cycle +$192 [-$825…+$222] · 38% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$37,324 NOT cap gain +$31,336 |
| budget: banked $300 debit $108 (36% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$192 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,599/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,473/mo) | -50% |
| vs normal income ($8,946/mo) | 25% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,835/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$51,151 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 373.4% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 47.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.7 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-68,680 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-41.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (1.7σ) | $300 | $-57,368 | +$11,292 | +$280 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (2.1σ) | $-1,750 | $-57,071 | +$11,589 | -$1,770 |
| +5% | $43.05 (2.4σ) | $-3,800 | $-56,773 | +$11,887 | -$3,820 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.7σ) | $-44,560 | $-50,863 | +$17,797 | -$44,580 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.86/sh | +$1,549 cycle +$1,963 [+$1,539…+$1,890] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$57,993 NOT cap gain +$10,667 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$47 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.20/sh | +$354 cycle +$768 [-$178…+$533] · 64% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$43,615 NOT cap gain +$25,045 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.04/sh | +$65 cycle +$479 [-$553…+$217] · 42% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$41,614 NOT cap gain +$27,046 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$42 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.02/sh | +$31 cycle +$445 [-$372…+$183] · 40% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$54,243 NOT cap gain +$14,417 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.21/sh | -$380 cycle +$34 [-$1,124…-$281] · 12% credit | 88% surv 86% | -$37,479 NOT cap gain +$31,181 |
| budget: banked $414 debit $380 (92% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,873/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,105/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,473/mo) | -31% |
| vs normal income ($8,946/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,695/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$47,692 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 348.1% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 44.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.3 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-61,812 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-40.24 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.24 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (1.4σ) | $414 | $-59,542 | +$9,118 | +$396 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (1.7σ) | $-1,386 | $-59,052 | +$9,608 | -$1,404 |
| +5% | $42.00 (2.1σ) | $-3,186 | $-58,562 | +$10,098 | -$3,204 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.7σ) | $-41,760 | $-48,061 | +$20,599 | -$41,778 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.82/sh | +$1,398 cycle +$2,027 [+$1,294…+$1,703] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$60,218 NOT cap gain +$8,442 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$45 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.32/sh | +$544 cycle +$1,173 [-$1…+$716] · 75% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$47,790 NOT cap gain +$20,870 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$41 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.13/sh | +$223 cycle +$852 [-$148…+$390] · 58% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$57,270 NOT cap gain +$11,390 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.14/sh | +$230 cycle +$859 [-$381…+$370] · 46% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$45,813 NOT cap gain +$22,847 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.33/sh | -$564 cycle +$65 [-$1,387…-$495] · 4% credit | 90% surv 88% | -$37,447 NOT cap gain +$31,213 |
| budget: banked $629 debit $564 (90% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$65 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $1,411/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,718/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,473/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($8,946/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,310/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,505 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 339.4% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 43.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.2 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-58,378 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-39.38 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $39.38 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (1.0σ) | $629 | $-61,616 | +$7,044 | +$612 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (1.3σ) | $-1,028 | $-61,041 | +$7,619 | -$1,045 |
| +5% | $40.95 (1.7σ) | $-2,686 | $-60,465 | +$8,195 | -$2,703 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.7σ) | $-40,902 | $-47,202 | +$21,458 | -$40,919 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.77/sh | +$1,380 cycle +$2,586 [+$1,166…+$1,442] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$63,095 NOT cap gain +$5,565 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$42 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.43/sh | +$768 cycle +$1,974 [+$77…+$670] · 79% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$52,715 NOT cap gain +$15,945 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$39 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.08/sh | +$152 cycle +$1,358 [-$382…+$75] · 30% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$60,201 NOT cap gain +$8,459 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.05/sh | +$90 cycle +$1,296 [-$786…-$66] · 21% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$48,813 NOT cap gain +$19,847 |
| SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.38/sh | -$685 cycle +$521 [-$1,826…-$936] | 90% surv 90% | -$40,428 NOT cap gain +$28,232 |
| budget: banked $1,206 debit $685 (57% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$521 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,239/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,045/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,473/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($8,946/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,635/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$51,400 |
| … as % of IC ($13,700) | 375.2% |
| … as % of ML ($107,700) | 47.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.7 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-61,839 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-38.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $38.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,206 | $-64,475 | +$4,185 | +$1,188 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-482 | $-64,015 | +$4,645 | -$500 |
| +5% | $39.38 (1.1σ) | $-2,169 | $-63,556 | +$5,104 | -$2,187 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $63.43 (9.7σ) | $-45,468 | $-51,769 | +$16,891 | -$45,486 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$305 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$3.62/sh | +$362 cycle +$437 [+$304…+$463] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$32,275 NOT cap gain +$3,177 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$350 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$1.67/sh | +$167 cycle +$242 [-$106…+$218] · 64% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$27,497 NOT cap gain +$7,955 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$312 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.65/sh | +$65 cycle +$140 [-$72…+$138] · 60% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$31,784 NOT cap gain +$3,668 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$355 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.58/sh | +$58 cycle +$133 [-$234…+$105] · 45% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$27,049 NOT cap gain +$8,404 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$365 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.43/sh | -$43 cycle +$32 [-$354…+$0] · 25% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$26,034 NOT cap gain +$9,419 |
| budget: banked $75 debit $43 (57% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$32 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $683/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $562/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,344/mo) | -58% |
| vs normal income ($2,688/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $436/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,473 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 238.1% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 63.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 11.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-35,470 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $301.95 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $302-305.93 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $305.93 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $305.00 (1.5σ) | $75 | $-32,637 | +$2,815 | +$70 |
| +2.5% | $312.62 (2.0σ) | $-688 | $-32,549 | +$2,904 | -$692 |
| +5% | $320.25 (2.5σ) | $-1,450 | $-32,460 | +$2,992 | -$1,455 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (19.2σ) | $-28,225 | $-29,354 | +$6,098 | -$5,930 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$300 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$3.69/sh | +$369 cycle +$509 [+$283…+$454] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$32,762 NOT cap gain +$2,691 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$345 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$1.67/sh | +$167 cycle +$307 [-$118…+$186] · 61% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$27,991 NOT cap gain +$7,462 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$307 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.73/sh | +$73 cycle +$213 [-$83…+$123] · 56% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$32,270 NOT cap gain +$3,182 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$350 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.59/sh | +$59 cycle +$199 [-$245…+$73] · 41% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$27,541 NOT cap gain +$7,911 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$365 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$1.39/sh | -$139 cycle +$1 [-$477…-$132] · 7% credit | 88% surv 87% | -$26,065 NOT cap gain +$9,388 |
| budget: banked $140 debit $139 (99% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $546/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,050/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,344/mo) | -22% |
| vs normal income ($2,688/mo) | 39% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $923/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,908 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 241.5% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 64.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 11.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-35,462 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $297.00 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $297-301.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $301.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $300.00 (1.2σ) | $140 | $-33,130 | +$2,322 | +$135 |
| +2.5% | $307.50 (1.7σ) | $-610 | $-33,043 | +$2,409 | -$615 |
| +5% | $315.00 (2.2σ) | $-1,360 | $-32,956 | +$2,496 | -$1,365 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (19.2σ) | $-28,660 | $-29,789 | +$5,663 | -$6,365 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$295 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$3.75/sh | +$375 cycle +$575 [+$273…+$437] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$33,253 NOT cap gain +$2,199 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$335 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$3.32/sh | +$332 cycle +$532 [+$44…+$318] · 78% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$28,882 NOT cap gain +$6,570 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$302 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.79/sh | +$79 cycle +$279 [-$105…+$90] · 49% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$32,762 NOT cap gain +$2,691 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$345 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.59/sh | +$59 cycle +$259 [-$284…+$36] · 33% credit | 84% surv 82% | -$28,039 NOT cap gain +$7,413 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$365 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$1.48/sh | -$148 cycle +$52 [-$534…-$178] · 5% credit | 90% surv 89% | -$26,014 NOT cap gain +$9,439 |
| budget: banked $200 debit $148 (74% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$52 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $522/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,344/mo) | +12% |
| vs normal income ($2,688/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,373/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,348 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 244.9% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 64.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 11.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-35,485 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $292.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $292-297.32 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $297.32 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $295.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $200 | $-33,628 | +$1,824 | +$195 |
| +2.5% | $302.38 (1.4σ) | $-538 | $-33,543 | +$1,910 | -$542 |
| +5% | $309.75 (1.8σ) | $-1,275 | $-33,457 | +$1,995 | -$1,280 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (19.2σ) | $-29,100 | $-30,229 | +$5,223 | -$6,805 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$288 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$3.84/sh | +$384 cycle +$764 [+$261…+$376] · 99% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$33,901 NOT cap gain +$1,551 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$327 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$3.27/sh | +$327 cycle +$707 [+$23…+$260] · 78% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$29,544 NOT cap gain +$5,909 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$337 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.58/sh | +$58 cycle +$438 [-$300…-$27] · 21% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$28,697 NOT cap gain +$6,756 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$297 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.02/sh | +$2 cycle +$382 [-$228…-$45] · 15% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$33,217 NOT cap gain +$2,235 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$362 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$2.47/sh | -$247 cycle +$133 [-$673…-$349] | 91% surv 90% | -$26,212 NOT cap gain +$9,241 |
| budget: banked $380 debit $247 (65% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$133 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $374/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,850/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,344/mo) | +112% |
| vs normal income ($2,688/mo) | 106% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,723/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,918 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 249.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 66.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 11.9 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-35,478 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $284.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $285-291.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $291.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $287.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $380 | $-34,285 | +$1,167 | +$375 |
| +2.5% | $294.69 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-339 | $-34,202 | +$1,251 | -$344 |
| +5% | $301.88 (1.3σ) | $-1,058 | $-34,118 | +$1,334 | -$1,062 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (19.2σ) | $-29,670 | $-30,799 | +$4,653 | -$7,375 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,136/mo) | -80% |
| vs normal income ($12,273/mo) | 10% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,200/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-23,700 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 13d left | 3-12d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $96.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $96-97.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $97.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $97.00 (1.2σ) | $1,000 | $1,531 | +$24,531 | +$7,400 |
| +2.5% | $99.42 (1.5σ) | $-3,850 | $1,628 | +$24,628 | +$7,400 |
| +5% | $101.85 (1.7σ) | $-8,700 | $1,725 | +$24,725 | +$7,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$93 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.80/sh | +$1,605 cycle +$1,805 [+$1,367…+$2,266] · 96% credit | 65% surv 51% | -$5,824 NOT cap gain +$17,176 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$95 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.18/sh | +$356 cycle +$556 [-$167…+$950] · 68% credit | 70% surv 60% | -$3,941 NOT cap gain +$19,059 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$99 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.18/sh | +$355 cycle +$555 [-$416…+$1,055] · 64% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$5,238 SAFE cap gain +$28,238 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$100 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.07/sh | +$135 cycle +$335 [-$688…+$819] · 58% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$6,038 SAFE cap gain +$29,038 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,136/mo) | -76% |
| vs normal income ($12,273/mo) | 12% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,383 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 13.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 7.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (20 ct) | $-23,150 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $92.07 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $92-93.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $93.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $93.00 (2.0σ) | $200 | $-7,429 | +$15,571 | -$400 |
| +2.5% | $95.32 (2.6σ) | $-4,450 | $-7,336 | +$15,664 | -$1,400 |
| +5% | $97.65 (3.2σ) | $-9,100 | $-7,243 | +$15,757 | -$1,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (16 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.74/sh | +$1,189 cycle +$1,749 [+$714…+$1,586] · 94% credit | 65% surv 51% | -$11,880 NOT cap gain +$11,120 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$95 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.47/sh | +$751 cycle +$1,311 [-$31…+$1,097] · 73% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$3,480 NOT cap gain +$19,520 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$92 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.12/sh | +$198 cycle +$758 [-$434…+$495] · 52% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$9,739 NOT cap gain +$13,261 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$96 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.06/sh | +$91 cycle +$651 [-$794…+$406] · 41% credit | 78% surv 74% | -$1,681 NOT cap gain +$21,319 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$98 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.26/sh | -$422 cycle +$138 [-$1,406…-$151] · 20% credit | 81% surv 78% | +$267 SAFE cap gain +$23,267 |
| budget: banked $560 debit $422 (75% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$138 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $2,687/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,136/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($12,273/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,527/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,307 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 18.1% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 10.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (16 ct) | $-18,560 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $89.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $89-90.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $90.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $90.00 (1.2σ) | $560 | $-13,069 | +$9,931 | +$80 |
| +2.5% | $92.25 (1.8σ) | $-3,040 | $-12,079 | +$10,921 | -$3,520 |
| +5% | $94.50 (2.4σ) | $-6,640 | $-11,489 | +$11,511 | -$5,520 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (17 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$89 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.72/sh | +$1,231 cycle +$2,081 [+$665…+$1,501] · 93% credit | 65% surv 51% | -$13,618 NOT cap gain +$9,382 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$94 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.43/sh | +$725 cycle +$1,575 [-$256…+$856] · 65% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$4,883 NOT cap gain +$18,117 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$91 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.11/sh | +$181 cycle +$1,031 [-$639…+$281] · 40% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$11,536 NOT cap gain +$11,464 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.02/sh | +$31 cycle +$881 [-$1,076…+$85] · 27% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$2,967 NOT cap gain +$20,033 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.30/sh | -$502 cycle +$348 [-$1,750…-$509] · 13% credit | 82% surv 79% | -$889 NOT cap gain +$22,111 |
| budget: banked $850 debit $502 (59% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$348 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,706/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,375/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,136/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($12,273/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,620/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,396 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 21.8% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 12.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (17 ct) | $-19,848 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $88.11 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $88-89.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $89.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $89.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $850 | $-14,849 | +$8,151 | +$340 |
| +2.5% | $91.22 (1.5σ) | $-2,932 | $-14,092 | +$8,908 | -$3,442 |
| +5% | $93.45 (2.1σ) | $-6,715 | $-13,336 | +$9,664 | -$7,225 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (18 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$87 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.69/sh | +$1,235 cycle +$2,945 [+$329…+$1,114] · 86% credit | 65% surv 51% | -$16,864 NOT cap gain +$6,136 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$91 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.59/sh | +$1,068 cycle +$2,778 [-$336…+$795] · 64% credit | 73% surv 66% | -$9,819 NOT cap gain +$13,181 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$89 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.07/sh | +$130 cycle +$1,840 [-$1,061…-$122] · 20% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$14,837 NOT cap gain +$8,163 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$93 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.09/sh | +$168 cycle +$1,878 [-$1,426…-$188] · 19% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$6,639 NOT cap gain +$16,361 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$98 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.85/sh | -$1,535 cycle +$175 [-$3,698…-$2,078] | 88% surv 86% | +$1,050 SAFE cap gain +$24,050 |
| budget: banked $1,710 debit $1,535 (90% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$175 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,392/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,825/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,136/mo) | +109% |
| vs normal income ($12,273/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,989/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$15,915 |
| … as % of IC ($56,800) | 28.0% |
| … as % of ML ($100,800) | 15.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (18 ct) | $-21,015 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $86.13 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $86-88.12 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $88.12 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $87.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,710 | $-18,099 | +$4,901 | +$1,170 |
| +2.5% | $89.17 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,205 | $-17,577 | +$5,423 | -$2,745 |
| +5% | $91.35 (1.5σ) | $-6,120 | $-17,055 | +$5,945 | -$6,660 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.1σ) | $-9,810 | $-16,563 | +$6,437 | -$10,350 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$23 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.37/sh | +$4,636 cycle +$5,636 [+$3,583…+$6,410] · 95% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$130,772 NOT cap gain +$32,166 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.18/sh | +$2,240 cycle +$3,240 [+$746…+$3,828] · 82% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$126,363 NOT cap gain +$36,575 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.20/sh | +$2,481 cycle +$3,481 [+$8…+$4,329] · 75% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$106,396 NOT cap gain +$56,542 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.07/sh | -$910 cycle +$90 [-$4,093…+$793] · 36% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$99,924 NOT cap gain +$63,013 |
| budget: banked $1,000 debit $910 (91% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$90 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $10,812/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($15,511/mo) | -52% |
| vs normal income ($31,023/mo) | 24% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$159,958 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 579.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 57.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.2 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-163,375 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $22.77 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $23-23.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $23.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $23.00 (1.6σ) | $1,000 | $-135,407 | +$27,530 | +$875 |
| +2.5% | $23.57 (1.9σ) | $-6,187 | $-136,924 | +$26,014 | -$6,312 |
| +5% | $24.15 (2.2σ) | $-13,375 | $-138,441 | +$24,497 | -$13,500 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (11.3σ) | $-207,875 | $-179,480 | -$16,542 | -$111,625 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (72 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.34/sh | +$2,472 cycle +$3,840 [+$1,421…+$3,122] · 95% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$142,377 NOT cap gain +$20,560 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$24 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.25/sh | +$1,799 cycle +$3,167 [-$44…+$2,265] · 75% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$126,382 NOT cap gain +$36,555 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.15/sh | +$1,056 cycle +$2,424 [-$186…+$1,511] · 71% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$136,988 NOT cap gain +$25,950 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.14/sh | +$982 cycle +$2,350 [-$900…+$1,399] · 56% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$117,337 NOT cap gain +$45,601 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.12/sh | -$836 cycle +$532 [-$3,153…-$625] · 16% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$109,293 NOT cap gain +$53,645 |
| budget: banked $1,368 debit $836 (61% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$532 cash · rolled 72 ct earn ≈ $5,344/mo while parked; 53 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $10,260/mo |
| vs 50% target ($15,511/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($31,023/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,348/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$98,544 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 356.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 35.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.2 mo |
| Surgical close (72 ct) | $-94,104 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $21.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $22-22.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $22.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $22.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,368 | $-144,849 | +$18,089 | +$1,296 |
| +2.5% | $22.55 (1.3σ) | $-2,592 | $-143,385 | +$19,553 | -$2,664 |
| +5% | $23.10 (1.6σ) | $-6,552 | $-141,920 | +$21,017 | -$6,624 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (11.3σ) | $-126,144 | $-138,559 | +$24,379 | -$70,704 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (109 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.34/sh | +$3,742 cycle +$5,813 [+$2,103…+$4,668] · 93% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$140,441 NOT cap gain +$22,497 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$24 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.25/sh | +$2,724 cycle +$4,795 [-$141…+$3,350] · 74% credit | 74% surv 68% | -$124,792 NOT cap gain +$38,146 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.15/sh | +$1,598 cycle +$3,669 [-$318…+$2,203] · 70% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$135,779 NOT cap gain +$27,158 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,486 cycle +$3,557 [-$1,421…+$1,976] · 53% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$116,166 NOT cap gain +$46,771 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.12/sh | -$1,266 cycle +$805 [-$4,878…-$1,093] · 15% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$109,056 NOT cap gain +$53,881 |
| budget: banked $2,071 debit $1,266 (61% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$805 cash · rolled 109 ct earn ≈ $8,090/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,532/mo |
| vs 50% target ($15,511/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($31,023/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,559/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$149,184 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 540.0% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 53.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.8 mo |
| Surgical close (109 ct) | $-142,463 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $21.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $22-22.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $22.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $22.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,071 | $-144,183 | +$18,755 | +$1,962 |
| +2.5% | $22.55 (1.3σ) | $-3,924 | $-144,754 | +$18,184 | -$4,033 |
| +5% | $23.10 (1.6σ) | $-9,919 | $-145,324 | +$17,613 | -$10,028 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (11.3σ) | $-190,968 | $-174,893 | -$11,955 | -$107,038 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (97 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$22 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.54/sh | +$5,248 cycle +$9,419 [+$2,763…+$4,944] · 95% credit | 70% surv 60% | -$139,880 NOT cap gain +$23,057 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$21 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.32/sh | +$3,073 cycle +$7,244 [+$1,250…+$2,881] · 91% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$148,861 NOT cap gain +$14,077 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$22 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.12/sh | +$1,121 cycle +$5,292 [-$1,022…+$783] · 47% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$144,007 NOT cap gain +$18,931 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$24 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.08/sh | +$763 cycle +$4,934 [-$2,476…+$130] · 26% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$124,641 NOT cap gain +$38,297 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.33/sh | -$3,181 cycle +$990 [-$7,769…-$4,341] | 87% surv 86% | -$108,859 NOT cap gain +$54,079 |
| budget: banked $4,171 debit $3,181 (76% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$990 cash · rolled 97 ct earn ≈ $3,899/mo while parked; 28 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $31,282/mo |
| vs 50% target ($15,511/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($31,023/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $31,329/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$140,132 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 507.3% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 50.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.5 mo |
| Surgical close (97 ct) | $-126,925 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $20.79 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $21-21.48 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $21.48 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $21.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,171 | $-151,933 | +$11,004 | +$4,074 |
| +2.5% | $21.52 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-921 | $-151,848 | +$11,089 | -$1,018 |
| +5% | $22.05 (1.0σ) | $-6,014 | $-151,763 | +$11,175 | -$6,111 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (11.3σ) | $-177,316 | $-170,481 | -$7,543 | -$102,626 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $912/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,836/mo) | -87% |
| vs normal income ($13,671/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $843/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($194,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-51,504 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 13d left | 3-12d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,217.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,218-1,234.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,234.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,230.00 (2.0σ) | $760 | $3,052 | +$54,456 | +$2,570 |
| +2.5% | $1,260.75 (2.2σ) | $-5,390 | $3,766 | +$55,170 | +$2,570 |
| +5% | $1,291.50 (2.5σ) | $-11,540 | $4,479 | +$55,883 | +$2,570 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,065 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | +$3.70/sh | +$741 cycle +$1,491 [+$607…+$1,314] · 97% credit | 68% surv 51% | -$33,045 NOT cap gain +$18,359 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,111 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$9.77/sh | +$1,954 cycle +$2,704 [+$996…+$2,597] · 89% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$21,659 NOT cap gain +$29,745 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,071 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | +$0.83/sh | +$166 cycle +$916 [-$180…+$679] · 65% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$32,375 NOT cap gain +$19,029 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,146 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.53/sh | +$105 cycle +$855 [-$1,244…+$665] · 42% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$15,696 NOT cap gain +$35,708 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,161 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$2.74/sh | -$548 cycle +$202 [-$2,059…-$10] · 25% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$13,001 NOT cap gain +$38,403 |
| budget: banked $750 debit $548 (73% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$202 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,125/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,625/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,836/mo) | -18% |
| vs normal income ($13,671/mo) | 41% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,556/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,749 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 63.5% |
| … as % of ML ($194,000) | 16.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-51,419 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,054.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,054-1,068.83 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,068.83 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,065.00 (1.6σ) | $750 | $-33,786 | +$17,618 | +$560 |
| +2.5% | $1,091.62 (2.1σ) | $-4,575 | $-33,168 | +$18,236 | -$4,765 |
| +5% | $1,118.25 (2.7σ) | $-9,900 | $-32,550 | +$18,854 | -$10,090 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (4.7σ) | $-30,250 | $-30,190 | +$21,214 | -$30,440 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,072 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | +$3.56/sh | +$713 cycle +$1,333 [+$645…+$1,323] · 96% credit | 68% surv 51% | -$31,529 NOT cap gain +$19,875 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,118 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$9.64/sh | +$1,928 cycle +$2,548 [+$1,161…+$2,676] · 89% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$20,141 NOT cap gain +$31,263 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,078 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | +$0.69/sh | +$138 cycle +$758 [-$124…+$700] · 71% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$30,859 NOT cap gain +$20,545 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,153 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.39/sh | +$78 cycle +$698 [-$1,066…+$734] · 47% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$14,180 NOT cap gain +$37,224 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,168 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$2.88/sh | -$576 cycle +$44 [-$1,823…+$51] · 26% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$11,485 NOT cap gain +$39,919 |
| budget: banked $620 debit $576 (93% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$44 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,123/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,650/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,836/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($13,671/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,581/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$30,379 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 60.8% |
| … as % of ML ($194,000) | 15.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-51,419 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,061.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,062-1,075.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,075.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,072.50 (1.7σ) | $620 | $-32,242 | +$19,162 | +$430 |
| +2.5% | $1,099.31 (2.3σ) | $-4,742 | $-31,620 | +$19,784 | -$4,932 |
| +5% | $1,126.12 (2.8σ) | $-10,105 | $-30,998 | +$20,406 | -$10,295 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (4.7σ) | $-28,880 | $-28,820 | +$22,584 | -$29,070 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,055 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | +$3.89/sh | +$777 cycle +$1,747 [+$487…+$1,313] · 94% credit | 68% surv 51% | -$35,021 NOT cap gain +$16,383 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,101 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$9.94/sh | +$1,988 cycle +$2,958 [+$568…+$2,513] · 84% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$23,638 NOT cap gain +$27,766 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,061 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | +$1.01/sh | +$203 cycle +$1,173 [-$280…+$665] · 59% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$34,351 NOT cap gain +$17,053 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,136 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.70/sh | +$141 cycle +$1,111 [-$1,696…+$566] · 37% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$17,673 NOT cap gain +$33,731 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,166 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$3.81/sh | -$762 cycle +$208 [-$2,893…-$415] · 16% credit | 85% surv 82% | -$11,879 NOT cap gain +$39,525 |
| budget: banked $970 debit $762 (79% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$208 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,800/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,275/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,836/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($13,671/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,206/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,529 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 67.1% |
| … as % of ML ($194,000) | 17.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-51,419 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,044.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,044-1,059.92 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,059.92 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,055.00 (1.4σ) | $970 | $-35,798 | +$15,606 | +$780 |
| +2.5% | $1,081.38 (1.9σ) | $-4,305 | $-35,186 | +$16,218 | -$4,495 |
| +5% | $1,107.75 (2.4σ) | $-9,580 | $-34,574 | +$16,830 | -$9,770 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (4.7σ) | $-32,030 | $-31,970 | +$19,434 | -$32,220 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,030 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | +$4.32/sh | +$865 cycle +$2,705 [+$442…+$1,277] · 96% credit | 68% surv 51% | -$39,643 NOT cap gain +$11,761 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,076 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$10.32/sh | +$2,064 cycle +$3,904 [+$692…+$2,230] · 87% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$28,271 NOT cap gain +$23,133 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,036 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | +$1.45/sh | +$291 cycle +$2,131 [-$269…+$576] · 53% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$38,973 NOT cap gain +$12,431 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,111 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$1.12/sh | +$224 cycle +$2,064 [-$1,504…+$221] · 32% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$22,300 NOT cap gain +$29,104 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,171 | 6 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$8.25/sh | -$1,650 cycle +$190 [-$3,857…-$1,765] | 88% surv 87% | -$10,782 NOT cap gain +$40,622 |
| budget: banked $1,840 debit $1,650 (90% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$190 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,527/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,836/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($13,671/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,731/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,659 |
| … as % of IC ($50,000) | 75.3% |
| … as % of ML ($194,000) | 19.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-51,424 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,019.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,020-1,039.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,039.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,030.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,840 | $-40,508 | +$10,896 | +$1,650 |
| +2.5% | $1,055.75 (1.4σ) | $-3,310 | $-39,910 | +$11,494 | -$3,500 |
| +5% | $1,081.50 (1.9σ) | $-8,460 | $-39,313 | +$12,091 | -$8,650 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,220.00 (4.7σ) | $-36,160 | $-36,100 | +$15,304 | -$36,350 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $785C 15 Oct 2026 (3d) | $778.93 | $785.57 | $1.02 | $1.02 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.07 OTM = 0.8% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $1.02 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$624 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $785.57 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 12x $785C at ~$1.50 ($1,797), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) | $350.77 | $357.01 | $3.20 | $3.20 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.23 OTM = 1.2% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $3.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,940 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $357.01 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 15x $355C at ~$3.86 ($5,794), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) | $350.77 | $359.26 | $3.20 | $3.20 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.23 OTM = 1.2% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $3.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,105 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $359.26 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $355C at ~$3.86 ($1,931), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) locks $13,210 if assigned (floor $386.42) | $350.77 | $362.52 | $1.73 | $1.73 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.23 OTM = 2.6% (1.3x a typical daily move). The $1.73 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,237 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $26.42/sh BELOW the $386.42 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $13,210 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $362.52 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $360C at ~$2.15 ($1,072), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) | $31.55 | $33.01 | $0.76 | $0.76 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.95 OTM = 3.0% (0.6x a typical daily move). The $0.76 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$690 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $33.01 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 15x $32.5C at ~$0.81 ($1,211), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $115C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) | $112.97 | $116.22 | $1.72 | $1.72 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.03 OTM = 1.8% (0.9x a typical daily move). The $1.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,407 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $116.22 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 12x $115C at ~$1.84 ($2,205), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
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| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1075C 14 Oct 2026 (2d) | $987.48 | $1,080.45 | $0.97 | $0.97 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 87.52 OTM = 8.9% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $0.97 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,700 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,080.45 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $114C 14 Oct 2026 (2d) locks $497 if assigned (floor $114.99) | $102.14 | $114.95 | $0.08 | $0.08 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.86 OTM = 11.6% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$450 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $114.95 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1x $1700C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) | $1,486.56 | $1,715.80 | $2.58 | $2.58 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 213.44 OTM = 14.4% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $2.58 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,575 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,715.80 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) | $227.24 | $252.15 | $0.21 | $0.21 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 22.76 OTM = 10.0% (5.2x a typical daily move). The $0.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,103 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $252.15 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) locks $13,589 if assigned (floor $127.18) | $80.03 | $101.78 | $0.21 | $0.21 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.97 OTM = 25.0% (5.4x a typical daily move). The $0.21 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$865 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.78 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $350C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) | $341.71 | $350.81 | $1.09 | $1.09 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.29 OTM = 2.4% (1.5x a typical daily move). The $1.09 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$380 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $350.81 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5x $277.5C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) | $262.10 | $277.81 | $0.23 | $0.23 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.40 OTM = 5.9% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $0.23 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$130 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $277.81 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $73C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) locks $45,021 if assigned (floor $148.04) | $67.22 | $73.58 | $0.42 | $0.42 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.78 OTM = 8.6% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $0.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$315 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $73.58 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10x $120C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) | $109.14 | $120.58 | $0.30 | $0.30 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.86 OTM = 10.0% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $0.30 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$530 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $120.58 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $200C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) locks $819,801 if assigned (floor $527.92) | $180.71 | $202.48 | $2.15 | $2.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.29 OTM = 10.7% (2.7x a typical daily move). The $2.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,083 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $202.48 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMD | Main:1299 | 2x $665C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) | $595.36 | $669.53 | $2.26 | $2.26 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 69.64 OTM = 11.7% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $2.26 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$896 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $669.53 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5x $98C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) | $84.62 | $99.20 | $0.82 | $0.82 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.38 OTM = 15.8% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $0.82 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$575 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $99.20 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3x $650C 30 Oct 2026 (18d) | $576.38 | $663.52 | $7.93 | $7.93 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 73.62 OTM = 12.8% (3.5x a typical daily move). The $7.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,041 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $663.52 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $195C 30 Oct 2026 (18d) | $162.61 | $196.56 | $0.49 | $0.49 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.39 OTM = 19.9% (6.1x a typical daily move). The $0.49 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$756 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $196.56 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $205C 13 Nov 2026 (32d) locks $7,231 if assigned (floor $214.04) | $180.71 | $210.12 | $5.62 | $5.62 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 24.29 OTM = 13.4% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $5.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,055 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $210.12 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (39d) | $156.10 | $180.96 | $8.53 | $8.53 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.90 OTM = 8.9% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $8.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (39d) locks $2,394 if assigned (floor $224.79) | $173.20 | $224.53 | $1.49 | $1.49 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 46.80 OTM = 27.0% (8.0x a typical daily move). The $1.49 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,242 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $224.53 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (39d) locks $1,255 if assigned (floor $49.63) | $35.91 | $50.52 | $0.83 | $0.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.09 OTM = 36.4% (6.7x a typical daily move). The $0.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,942 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $50.52 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (39d) locks $1,255 if assigned (floor $49.63) | $35.91 | $50.52 | $0.83 | $0.83 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.09 OTM = 36.4% (6.7x a typical daily move). The $0.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,948 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $50.52 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $409C 18 Dec 2026 (67d) locks $50,784 if assigned (floor $459.78) | $382.72 | $414.20 | $6.05 | $6.05 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 26.28 OTM = 6.9% (5.0x a typical daily move). The $6.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,148 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $414.20 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $200C 15 Jan 2027 (95d) | $156.10 | $211.95 | $8.80 | $8.80 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 43.90 OTM = 28.1% (6.6x a typical daily move). The $8.80 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$11,900 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $211.95 (breakeven). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $24.29 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 54.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $24.29 | $36.42 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $24.29 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 63.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $10.47 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.5% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $32.27 | $56.15 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.5% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $46.77 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC13 | Main:1299 | 400 | $9.59 | $16.75 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.7% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $9.59 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 76.6% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $334.64 | 5x $350C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| AMD | Main:1299 | 2 | $649.20 | 2x $665C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) |
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 5 | $267.92 | 5x $278C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $205C 13 Nov 2026 (32d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $200C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) |
| CRCL | Neville:0865 | 5 | $87.00 | 5x $98C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) |
| DELL | Main:1299 | 3 | $562.50 | 3x $650C 30 Oct 2026 (18d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $409C 18 Dec 2026 (67d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $32C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10 | $114.95 | 10x $120C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $115C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $114C 14 Oct 2026 (2d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (39d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $49C 20 Nov 2026 (39d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (39d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $200C 15 Jan 2027 (95d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1075C 14 Oct 2026 (2d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (11d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (39d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $73C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| SNDK | Neville:0865 | 1 | $1,620.00 | 1x $1700C 16 Oct 2026 (4d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $195C 30 Oct 2026 (18d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $785C 15 Oct 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 213 | 56% | 62% | +6pp |
| 60-70% | 403 | 64% | 62% | -3pp |
| 70-80% | 541 | 76% | 82% | +6pp |
| 80-90% | 736 | 84% | 85% | +1pp |
| 90-100% | 1191 | 94% | 96% | +2pp |
Touch odds: predicted 37% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 3084 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.36x (W40) to 1.59x (W34) over 14 graded weeks; last week 0.75x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 215 real buyback(s) recorded · 124 roll(s), net +$0.76/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 124 real rolls: buyback $5.43/sh, replacement credit financed 114% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.76/sh (86 of 124 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.