FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $71,001/mo (45% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $16,328/mo ⚡ $19,393/mo of that is earnings-blocked (4 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $1,213,992 locked in if all 25 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.
| POSITION | CC-SAFE | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | CC-safe ≥ floor | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| AMZN ↗ ▼ DOWN -1.9% Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 5 | $239.08 | $269.82 | 5 × $270 20 Nov (21d) $350 cyc · $500/mo 93% survhist 95% · T:14%hist 13% | — | 🎯 5 × $250 6 Nov (7d) $725 cyc · $3,107/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 30% | 5 × $247.50 6 Nov (7d) $1,010 cyc · $4,329/mo 76% survhist 83% · T:50%hist 40% | 5 × $242.50 6 Nov (7d) $1,825 cyc · $7,821/mo 62% survhist 66% · T:78%hist 68% | $1,152 | -$9,184 (27.0% IC) | 12.9% |
| MARA-LC13 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 5dMAX 100 ▼ DOWN -5.9% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 400 | $6.74 | $11.00 | 100 × $11.50 13 Nov (14d)⚡ $200 cyc · $429/mo 98% survhist 95% · T:4%hist 4% | ⏸⚡ 100 × $9 13 Nov (14d)alt tenor⚡ $800 cyc · $1,714/mo 92% survhist 95% · T:18%hist 13% | 100 × $7.50 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $1,600 cyc · $6,857/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:47%hist 40% | 100 × $7.50 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $1,600 cyc · $6,857/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:47%hist 40% | 100 × $7 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $3,000 cyc · $12,857/mo 63% survhist 66% · T:79%hist 68% | - | -$19,231 (12.8% IC) | 63.3% |
| MARA-STK-1299 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 5d ▼ DOWN -5.9% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 100 | $6.74 | $14.76 | 100 × $17 20 Nov (21d)⚡ $100 cyc · $143/mo 99% survhist 95% · T:1%hist 4% | ⏸⚡ 100 × $9 13 Nov (14d)alt tenor⚡ $800 cyc · $1,714/mo 92% survhist 95% · T:18%hist 13% | 100 × $7.50 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $1,600 cyc · $6,857/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:47%hist 40% | 100 × $7.50 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $1,600 cyc · $6,857/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:47%hist 40% | 100 × $7 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $3,000 cyc · $12,857/mo 63% survhist 66% · T:79%hist 68% | - | -$56,800 (38.5% IC) | 119.0% |
| APP ↗⚡ER 5d ▼ DOWN BIG -10.6% RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 1 | $227.84 | $616.94 | — | 1 × $295 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $265 cyc · $1,136/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:21%hist 23% | 1 × $290 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $360 cyc · $1,543/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:24%hist 23% | ⏸⚡ 1 × $275 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $570 cyc · $2,443/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:36%hist 30% | 1 × $252.50 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $1,060 cyc · $4,543/mo 72% survhist 83% · T:61%hist 54% | $3,885 | -$33,624 (262.7% IC) | 170.8% |
| COIN-LC165 ↗ ▼ DOWN BIG -13.3% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 8 | $139.16 | $218.12 | 8 × $220 27 Nov (28d) $160 cyc · $171/mo 98% survhist 95% · T:4%hist 4% | 8 × $160 6 Nov (7d) $576 cyc · $2,469/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:20%hist 23% | 🎯 8 × $155 6 Nov (7d) $1,008 cyc · $4,320/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 30% | 8 × $150 6 Nov (7d) $1,672 cyc · $7,166/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:48%hist 40% | 8 × $144 6 Nov (7d) $3,080 cyc · $13,200/mo 64% survhist 66% · T:74%hist 68% | $19,602 | -$49,488 (368.2% IC) | 56.7% |
| CRCL ↗⚡ER 5d ▼ DOWN BIG -10.4% Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 5 | $71.67 | $89.72 | 5 × $90 13 Nov (14d)⚡ $450 cyc · $964/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:22%hist 23% | 5 × $88 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $275 cyc · $1,179/mo 91% survhist 95% · T:19%hist 13% | 5 × $85 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $445 cyc · $1,907/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:27%hist 23% | ⏸⚡ 5 × $81 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $755 cyc · $3,236/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:42%hist 40% | 5 × $76 6 Nov (7d)⚡ $1,420 cyc · $6,086/mo 67% survhist 66% · T:69%hist 54% | $809 | -$3,607 (17.2% IC) | 25.2% |
| DELL ↗⚡ER 25d ▼ DOWN BIG -11.7% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 3 | $419.65 | $573.63 | 3 × $580 20 Nov (21d) $192 cyc · $274/mo 98% survhist 95% · T:5%hist 4% | 3 × $477.50 6 Nov (7d) $621 cyc · $2,661/mo 91% survhist 95% · T:19%hist 13% | 3 × $460 6 Nov (7d) $1,305 cyc · $5,593/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 30% | 🎯 3 × $452.50 6 Nov (7d) $1,755 cyc · $7,521/mo 78% survhist 83% · T:45%hist 40% | 3 × $432.50 6 Nov (7d) $3,540 cyc · $15,171/mo 63% survhist 66% · T:76%hist 68% | $9,598 | -$34,585 (45.7% IC) | 36.7% |
| INTC ↗ ▼ DOWN BIG -30.8% Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 5 | $63.67 | $116.87 | 5 × $117 13 Nov (14d) $5 cyc · $11/mo 99+% survhist 95% · T:0%hist 4% | 5 × $73 6 Nov (7d) $185 cyc · $793/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:20%hist 13% | 🎯 5 × $71 6 Nov (7d) $295 cyc · $1,264/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 23% | 5 × $69 6 Nov (7d) $460 cyc · $1,971/mo 79% survhist 83% · T:43%hist 40% | 5 × $66 6 Nov (7d) $865 cyc · $3,707/mo 65% survhist 66% · T:72%hist 68% | $6,066 | -$22,640 (156.1% IC) | 83.6% |
| SNDK ↗ ▼ DOWN BIG -15.3% Neville:0865 · Next Fri | 1 | $1,127.21 | $1,636.75 | 1 × $1640 27 Nov (28d) $520 cyc · $557/mo 96% survhist 95% · T:8%hist 4% | 1 × $1310 6 Nov (7d) $770 cyc · $3,300/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:20%hist 23% | 🎯 1 × $1265 6 Nov (7d) $1,290 cyc · $5,529/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:32%hist 30% | 1 × $1230 6 Nov (7d) $1,920 cyc · $8,229/mo 78% survhist 83% · T:45%hist 40% | 1 × $1165 6 Nov (7d) $3,870 cyc · $16,586/mo 63% survhist 66% · T:77%hist 68% | $9,126 | -$35,885 (85.4% IC) | 45.2% |
| ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes) | |||||||||||
| AAPL RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $343.29 | $334.64 BE | +2.6% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here | |||||||
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 ↗ ▼ DOWN BIG -13.3% Main:1299 · Next Fri | 25 | $139.16 | $381.70 | — | 25 × $160 6 Nov (7d) $1,800 cyc · $7,714/mo 90% survhist 95% · T:20%hist 23% | 🎯 25 × $155 6 Nov (7d) $3,150 cyc · $13,500/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:31%hist 30% | 25 × $150 6 Nov (7d) $5,225 cyc · $22,393/mo 77% survhist 83% · T:48%hist 40% | 25 × $144 6 Nov (7d) $9,625 cyc · $41,250/mo 64% survhist 66% · T:74%hist 68% | $37,009 | -$563,602 (357.8% IC) | 174.3% |
| TOTAL (10) | 553 | following every 🎯 $11,148 cyc · $44,349/mo | $1,977 cyc · $3,049/mo 8 of 10 | $6,092 cyc · $22,680/mo 9 of 10 | $11,778 cyc · $50,477/mo | $16,567 cyc · $71,001/mo | $31,285 cyc · $134,079/mo | $87,247 | -$828,645 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$266 | 27 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$1.93/sh | +$966 cycle +$1,316 [+$1,046…+$1,842] · 100% credit | 62% surv 42% | -$857 NOT cap gain +$14,428 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$270 | 27 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.10/sh | -$49 cycle +$301 [-$70…+$627] · 70% credit | 67% surv 51% | +$121 SAFE cap gain +$15,406 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$271 | 27 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.53/sh | -$266 cycle +$84 [-$309…+$336] · 53% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$353 SAFE cap gain +$15,638 |
| budget: banked $350 debit $266 (76% used ≈ 2.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$84 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,224/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,429/mo) | -85% |
| vs normal income ($6,857/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-605/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($33,960) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($51,460) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,295 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 11d left | 3-10d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $267.30 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $267-270.72 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $270.72 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $270.00 (1.5σ) | $350 | $169 | +$15,454 | +$1,530 |
| +2.5% | $276.75 (1.9σ) | $-3,025 | $92 | +$15,377 | +$1,530 |
| +5% | $283.50 (2.2σ) | $-6,400 | $14 | +$15,299 | +$1,530 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$256 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.48/sh | +$741 cycle +$1,466 [+$256…+$865] · 89% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$5,593 NOT cap gain +$9,692 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$250 | 9 Nov 2026 | 6d left | +$0.45/sh | +$227 cycle +$952 [+$41…+$390] · 84% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$8,998 NOT cap gain +$6,287 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$256 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.70/sh | +$348 cycle +$1,073 [-$125…+$437] · 62% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$5,986 NOT cap gain +$9,299 |
| SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$251 | 9 Nov 2026 | 6d left | +$0.05/sh | +$27 cycle +$752 [-$196…+$135] · 40% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$8,749 NOT cap gain +$6,536 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$261 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.97/sh | -$487 cycle +$238 [-$1,137…-$421] · 10% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$4,378 NOT cap gain +$10,907 |
| budget: banked $725 debit $487 (67% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$238 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,562/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,107/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,429/mo) | -9% |
| vs normal income ($6,857/mo) | 45% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,002/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,184 |
| … as % of IC ($33,960) | 27.0% |
| … as % of ML ($51,460) | 17.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,305 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $247.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $248-251.49 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $251.49 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $250.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $725 | $-9,226 | +$6,059 | +$655 |
| +2.5% | $256.25 (1.5σ) | $-2,400 | $-9,297 | +$5,988 | -$2,470 |
| +5% | $262.50 (2.0σ) | $-5,525 | $-9,369 | +$5,916 | -$5,595 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $267.92 (2.5σ) | $-8,235 | $-9,432 | +$5,853 | -$8,095 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$253 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.55/sh | +$776 cycle +$1,786 [+$206…+$786] · 88% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$6,494 NOT cap gain +$8,791 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$248 | 9 Nov 2026 | 6d left | +$0.51/sh | +$253 cycle +$1,263 [+$25…+$301] · 81% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$9,909 NOT cap gain +$5,376 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$253 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.76/sh | +$378 cycle +$1,388 [-$178…+$358] · 56% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$6,891 NOT cap gain +$8,394 |
| SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$248 | 9 Nov 2026 | 6d left | +$0.11/sh | +$54 cycle +$1,064 [-$205…+$81] · 33% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$9,659 NOT cap gain +$5,626 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$263 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$1.51/sh | -$756 cycle +$254 [-$1,649…-$888] · 3% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$3,141 NOT cap gain +$12,144 |
| budget: banked $1,010 debit $756 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$254 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,560/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,329/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,429/mo) | +26% |
| vs normal income ($6,857/mo) | 63% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,224/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,149 |
| … as % of IC ($33,960) | 29.9% |
| … as % of ML ($51,460) | 19.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,310 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $245.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $245-249.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $249.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $247.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,010 | $-10,162 | +$5,123 | +$940 |
| +2.5% | $253.69 (1.2σ) | $-2,084 | $-10,233 | +$5,052 | -$2,154 |
| +5% | $259.88 (1.8σ) | $-5,178 | $-10,304 | +$4,981 | -$5,248 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $267.92 (2.5σ) | $-9,200 | $-10,397 | +$4,888 | -$9,060 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$248 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.69/sh | +$843 cycle +$2,668 [+$104…+$584] · 82% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$8,054 NOT cap gain +$7,231 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$242 | 9 Nov 2026 | 6d left | +$0.61/sh | +$303 cycle +$2,128 [+$14…+$220] · 78% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$11,486 NOT cap gain +$3,799 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$248 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.87/sh | +$437 cycle +$2,262 [-$285…+$187] · 46% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$8,461 NOT cap gain +$6,824 |
| SS $268 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$243 | 9 Nov 2026 | 6d left | +$0.21/sh | +$104 cycle +$1,929 [-$230…-$8] · 24% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$11,236 NOT cap gain +$4,049 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$268 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$2.88/sh | -$1,441 cycle +$384 [-$2,867…-$1,902] | 91% surv 90% | -$569 NOT cap gain +$14,716 |
| budget: banked $1,825 debit $1,441 (79% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$384 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $653/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,821/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,429/mo) | +128% |
| vs normal income ($6,857/mo) | 114% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,717/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,834 |
| … as % of IC ($33,960) | 34.8% |
| … as % of ML ($51,460) | 23.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-15,335 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $240.07 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $240-246.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $246.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $242.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,825 | $-11,789 | +$3,496 | +$1,755 |
| +2.5% | $248.56 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,206 | $-11,859 | +$3,426 | -$1,276 |
| +5% | $254.62 (1.3σ) | $-4,238 | $-11,929 | +$3,356 | -$4,307 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $267.92 (2.5σ) | $-10,885 | $-12,082 | +$3,203 | -$10,745 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 20 Nov 2026 | 14d left | +$0.16/sh | +$1,572 cycle +$1,772 | 68% surv 56% | -$5,305 NOT cap gain +$88,895 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 20 Nov 2026 | 14d left | +$0.03/sh | +$334 cycle +$534 | 74% surv 64% | +$7,319 SAFE cap gain +$101,519 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 27 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.11/sh | +$1,120 cycle +$1,320 | 76% surv 68% | +$17,225 SAFE cap gain +$111,425 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $429/mo |
| vs 50% target ($21,000/mo) | -98% |
| vs normal income ($42,000/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $429/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($150,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($150,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (100 ct) | $-23,600 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.53 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.53 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.50 (3.2σ) | $200 | $-6,878 | +$87,322 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $11.79 (3.4σ) | $-2,675 | $-4,509 | +$89,691 | -$2,775 |
| +5% | $12.08 (3.6σ) | $-5,550 | $-2,140 | +$92,060 | -$5,650 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $16.75 (6.8σ) | $-52,300 | $36,382 | +$130,582 | -$52,400 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$9 | 20 Nov 2026 | 14d left | +$0.13/sh | +$1,307 cycle +$2,107 [+$1,160…+$2,212] · 100% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$45,828 NOT cap gain +$48,372 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$9 | 20 Nov 2026 | 14d left | +$0.11/sh | +$1,057 cycle +$1,857 [+$751…+$2,136] · 96% credit | 67% surv 55% | -$50,820 NOT cap gain +$43,380 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$10 | 27 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.09/sh | +$923 cycle +$1,723 [+$616…+$2,141] · 95% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$37,092 NOT cap gain +$57,108 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$10 | 27 Nov 2026 | 21d left | -$0.06/sh | -$557 cycle +$243 [-$1,047…+$554] · 37% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$29,453 NOT cap gain +$64,747 |
| budget: banked $800 debit $557 (70% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$243 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $8,610/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,714/mo |
| vs 50% target ($21,000/mo) | -92% |
| vs normal income ($42,000/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,714/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,231 |
| … as % of IC ($150,000) | 12.8% |
| … as % of ML ($150,000) | 12.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (100 ct) | $-23,650 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $8.91 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $9-9.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $9.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $9.00 (1.5σ) | $800 | $-51,878 | +$42,322 | +$700 |
| +2.5% | $9.22 (1.7σ) | $-1,450 | $-50,024 | +$44,176 | -$1,550 |
| +5% | $9.45 (1.8σ) | $-3,700 | $-48,170 | +$46,030 | -$3,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $16.75 (6.8σ) | $-76,700 | $11,982 | +$106,182 | -$76,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$8 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$858…+$1,492] · 98% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$72,337 NOT cap gain +$21,863 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$8 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$673…+$1,498] · 94% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$77,080 NOT cap gain +$17,120 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$9 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$739 cycle +$2,339 [-$189…+$864] · 64% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$54,716 NOT cap gain +$39,484 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$10 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.12/sh | -$1,238 cycle +$362 [-$2,627…-$1,252] · 5% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$38,453 NOT cap gain +$55,747 |
| budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,238 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$362 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $2,946/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,857/mo |
| vs 50% target ($21,000/mo) | -67% |
| vs normal income ($42,000/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,857/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,431 |
| … as % of IC ($150,000) | 22.3% |
| … as % of ML ($150,000) | 22.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (100 ct) | $-23,600 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $7.42 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $7-7.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $7.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $7.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,600 | $-78,438 | +$15,762 | +$1,500 |
| +2.5% | $7.69 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-275 | $-76,893 | +$17,307 | -$375 |
| +5% | $7.88 (1.1σ) | $-2,150 | $-75,348 | +$18,852 | -$2,250 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $16.75 (9.5σ) | $-90,900 | $-2,218 | +$91,982 | -$91,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$8 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$858…+$1,492] · 98% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$72,337 NOT cap gain +$21,863 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$8 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$673…+$1,498] · 94% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$77,080 NOT cap gain +$17,120 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$9 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$739 cycle +$2,339 [-$189…+$864] · 64% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$54,716 NOT cap gain +$39,484 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$10 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.12/sh | -$1,238 cycle +$362 [-$2,627…-$1,252] · 5% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$38,453 NOT cap gain +$55,747 |
| budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,238 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$362 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $2,946/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,857/mo |
| vs 50% target ($21,000/mo) | -67% |
| vs normal income ($42,000/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,857/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,431 |
| … as % of IC ($150,000) | 22.3% |
| … as % of ML ($150,000) | 22.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (100 ct) | $-23,600 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $7.42 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $7-7.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $7.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $7.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,600 | $-78,438 | +$15,762 | +$1,500 |
| +2.5% | $7.69 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-275 | $-76,893 | +$17,307 | -$375 |
| +5% | $7.88 (1.1σ) | $-2,150 | $-75,348 | +$18,852 | -$2,250 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $16.75 (9.5σ) | $-90,900 | $-2,218 | +$91,982 | -$91,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$7 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.11/sh | +$1,137 cycle +$4,137 [+$484…+$899] · 95% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$80,279 NOT cap gain +$13,921 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$8 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$1,656 cycle +$4,656 [+$661…+$1,339] · 95% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$70,640 NOT cap gain +$23,560 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$7 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.12/sh | +$1,233 cycle +$4,233 [+$345…+$916] · 89% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$84,924 NOT cap gain +$9,276 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$8 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.04/sh | +$354 cycle +$3,354 [-$921…-$91] · 22% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$62,821 NOT cap gain +$31,379 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$10 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.19/sh | -$1,925 cycle +$1,075 [-$3,982…-$2,603] | 92% surv 91% | -$37,740 NOT cap gain +$56,460 |
| budget: banked $3,000 debit $1,925 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,075 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $1,655/mo while parked; 300 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,857/mo |
| vs 50% target ($21,000/mo) | -39% |
| vs normal income ($42,000/mo) | 31% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,857/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$37,031 |
| … as % of IC ($150,000) | 24.7% |
| … as % of ML ($150,000) | 24.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (100 ct) | $-23,650 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $6.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $7-7.31 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $7.31 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $7.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,000 | $-86,158 | +$8,042 | +$2,900 |
| +2.5% | $7.17 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,250 | $-84,716 | +$9,484 | +$1,150 |
| +5% | $7.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-500 | $-83,274 | +$10,926 | -$600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $16.75 (9.5σ) | $-94,500 | $-5,818 | +$88,382 | -$94,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 27 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,426 cycle +$1,526 | 70% surv 58% | +$23,926 SAFE cap gain +$104,126 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 27 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$50 cycle +$150 | 74% surv 65% | +$35,150 SAFE cap gain +$115,350 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 27 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.00/sh | +$50 cycle +$150 | 74% surv 65% | +$35,150 SAFE cap gain +$115,350 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $143/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,250/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($10,500/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $143/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($147,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($147,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (100 ct) | $-80,250 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 11d left | 3-10d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (5.7σ) | $100 | $22,500 | +$102,700 | +$20,000 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (5.9σ) | $-4,150 | $22,500 | +$102,700 | +$20,000 |
| +5% | $17.85 (6.1σ) | $-8,400 | $22,500 | +$102,700 | +$20,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$9 | 20 Nov 2026 | 14d left | +$0.13/sh | +$1,307 cycle +$2,107 [+$1,160…+$2,212] · 100% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$52,893 NOT cap gain +$27,307 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$9 | 20 Nov 2026 | 14d left | +$0.11/sh | +$1,057 cycle +$1,857 [+$751…+$2,136] · 96% credit | 67% surv 55% | -$55,743 NOT cap gain +$24,457 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$10 | 27 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.09/sh | +$923 cycle +$1,723 [+$616…+$2,141] · 95% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$48,277 NOT cap gain +$31,923 |
| SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$10 | 27 Nov 2026 | 21d left | -$0.06/sh | -$557 cycle +$243 [-$1,047…+$554] · 37% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$44,757 NOT cap gain +$35,443 |
| budget: banked $800 debit $557 (70% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$243 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $8,610/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,714/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,250/mo) | -67% |
| vs normal income ($10,500/mo) | 16% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,714/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$56,800 |
| … as % of IC ($147,500) | 38.5% |
| … as % of ML ($147,500) | 38.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 5.4 mo |
| Surgical close (100 ct) | $-80,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $8.91 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $9-9.09 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $9.09 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $9.00 (1.5σ) | $800 | $-56,800 | +$23,400 | +$700 |
| +2.5% | $9.22 (1.7σ) | $-1,450 | $-56,800 | +$23,400 | -$1,550 |
| +5% | $9.45 (1.8σ) | $-3,700 | $-56,800 | +$23,400 | -$3,800 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $14.75 (5.4σ) | $-56,700 | $-56,800 | +$23,400 | -$56,800 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$8 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$858…+$1,492] · 98% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$67,042 NOT cap gain +$13,158 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$8 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$673…+$1,498] · 94% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$69,642 NOT cap gain +$10,558 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$9 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$739 cycle +$2,339 [-$189…+$864] · 64% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$57,661 NOT cap gain +$22,539 |
| SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$10 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.12/sh | -$1,238 cycle +$362 [-$2,627…-$1,252] · 5% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$49,638 NOT cap gain +$30,562 |
| budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,238 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$362 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $2,946/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,857/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,250/mo) | +31% |
| vs normal income ($10,500/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,857/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$71,000 |
| … as % of IC ($147,500) | 48.1% |
| … as % of ML ($147,500) | 48.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.8 mo |
| Surgical close (100 ct) | $-80,250 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $7.42 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $7-7.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $7.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $7.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,600 | $-71,000 | +$9,200 | +$1,500 |
| +2.5% | $7.69 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-275 | $-71,000 | +$9,200 | -$375 |
| +5% | $7.88 (1.1σ) | $-2,150 | $-71,000 | +$9,200 | -$2,250 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $14.75 (7.6σ) | $-70,900 | $-71,000 | +$9,200 | -$71,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$8 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$858…+$1,492] · 98% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$67,042 NOT cap gain +$13,158 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$8 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$673…+$1,498] · 94% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$69,642 NOT cap gain +$10,558 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$9 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$739 cycle +$2,339 [-$189…+$864] · 64% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$57,661 NOT cap gain +$22,539 |
| SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$10 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.12/sh | -$1,238 cycle +$362 [-$2,627…-$1,252] · 5% credit | 87% surv 85% | -$49,638 NOT cap gain +$30,562 |
| budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,238 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$362 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $2,946/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,857/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,250/mo) | +31% |
| vs normal income ($10,500/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,857/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$71,000 |
| … as % of IC ($147,500) | 48.1% |
| … as % of ML ($147,500) | 48.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.8 mo |
| Surgical close (100 ct) | $-80,250 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $7.42 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $7-7.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $7.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $7.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,600 | $-71,000 | +$9,200 | +$1,500 |
| +2.5% | $7.69 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-275 | $-71,000 | +$9,200 | -$375 |
| +5% | $7.88 (1.1σ) | $-2,150 | $-71,000 | +$9,200 | -$2,250 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $14.75 (7.6σ) | $-70,900 | $-71,000 | +$9,200 | -$71,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$7 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.11/sh | +$1,137 cycle +$4,137 [+$484…+$899] · 95% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$70,863 NOT cap gain +$9,337 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$8 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$1,656 cycle +$4,656 [+$661…+$1,339] · 95% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$65,344 NOT cap gain +$14,856 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$7 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.12/sh | +$1,233 cycle +$4,233 [+$345…+$916] · 89% credit | 66% surv 54% | -$73,367 NOT cap gain +$6,833 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$8 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.04/sh | +$354 cycle +$3,354 [-$921…-$91] · 22% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$61,646 NOT cap gain +$18,554 |
| SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$10 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.19/sh | -$1,925 cycle +$1,075 [-$3,982…-$2,603] | 92% surv 91% | -$48,925 NOT cap gain +$31,275 |
| budget: banked $3,000 debit $1,925 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,075 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $1,655/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $12,857/mo |
| vs 50% target ($5,250/mo) | +145% |
| vs normal income ($10,500/mo) | 122% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,857/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$74,600 |
| … as % of IC ($147,500) | 50.6% |
| … as % of ML ($147,500) | 50.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.1 mo |
| Surgical close (100 ct) | $-80,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $6.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $7-7.31 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $7.31 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $7.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,000 | $-74,600 | +$5,600 | +$2,900 |
| +2.5% | $7.17 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,250 | $-74,600 | +$5,600 | +$1,150 |
| +5% | $7.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-500 | $-74,600 | +$5,600 | -$600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $14.75 (7.6σ) | $-74,500 | $-74,600 | +$5,600 | -$74,600 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$297 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$3.03/sh | +$303 cycle +$568 [+$31…+$691] · 77% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$33,537 NOT cap gain +$7,188 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$295 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.64/sh | +$64 cycle +$329 [-$155…+$379] · 55% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$33,982 NOT cap gain +$6,743 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$307 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.27/sh | +$27 cycle +$292 [-$283…+$383] · 49% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$32,858 NOT cap gain +$7,867 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$312 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$1.82/sh | -$182 cycle +$83 [-$550…+$145] · 33% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$32,589 NOT cap gain +$8,136 |
| budget: banked $265 debit $182 (69% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,297/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,136/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,181/mo) | -48% |
| vs normal income ($4,363/mo) | 26% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $625/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,929 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 249.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 66.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-40,802 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $292.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $292-298.43 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $298.43 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $295.00 (1.7σ) | $265 | $-34,046 | +$6,679 | +$260 |
| +2.5% | $302.38 (1.9σ) | $-472 | $-34,079 | +$6,646 | -$478 |
| +5% | $309.75 (2.1σ) | $-1,210 | $-34,113 | +$6,612 | -$1,215 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (9.2σ) | $-29,035 | $-35,365 | +$5,360 | -$15,240 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$292 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$3.21/sh | +$321 cycle +$681 [+$9…+$714] · 76% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$33,901 NOT cap gain +$6,824 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$290 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.79/sh | +$79 cycle +$439 [-$173…+$397] · 55% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$34,349 NOT cap gain +$6,376 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$302 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.45/sh | +$45 cycle +$405 [-$296…+$417] · 50% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$33,222 NOT cap gain +$7,503 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$312 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$3.41/sh | -$341 cycle +$19 [-$771…-$9] · 24% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$32,653 NOT cap gain +$8,072 |
| budget: banked $360 debit $341 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$19 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,055/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,543/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,181/mo) | -29% |
| vs normal income ($4,363/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,032/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,334 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 252.6% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 66.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.4 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-40,755 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $287.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $287-293.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $293.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $290.00 (1.6σ) | $360 | $-34,429 | +$6,296 | +$355 |
| +2.5% | $297.25 (1.8σ) | $-365 | $-34,461 | +$6,264 | -$370 |
| +5% | $304.50 (2.0σ) | $-1,090 | $-34,494 | +$6,231 | -$1,095 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (9.2σ) | $-29,440 | $-35,770 | +$4,955 | -$15,645 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$277 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$3.70/sh | +$370 cycle +$940 [-$4…+$624] · 74% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$35,075 NOT cap gain +$5,650 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$275 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$1.21/sh | +$121 cycle +$691 [-$177…+$323] · 52% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$35,530 NOT cap gain +$5,195 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$287 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.94/sh | +$94 cycle +$664 [-$319…+$305] · 43% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$34,396 NOT cap gain +$6,329 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$277 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.07/sh | +$7 cycle +$577 [-$323…+$182] · 38% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$35,438 NOT cap gain +$5,287 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$302 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$5.57/sh | -$557 cycle +$13 [-$1,090…-$468] · 10% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$33,615 NOT cap gain +$7,110 |
| budget: banked $570 debit $557 (98% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,208/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,443/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,181/mo) | +12% |
| vs normal income ($4,363/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,932/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,624 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 262.7% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 69.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-40,765 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $272.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $272-281.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $281.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $275.00 (1.2σ) | $570 | $-35,651 | +$5,074 | +$565 |
| +2.5% | $281.88 (1.4σ) | $-118 | $-35,682 | +$5,043 | -$122 |
| +5% | $288.75 (1.6σ) | $-805 | $-35,713 | +$5,012 | -$810 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (9.2σ) | $-30,730 | $-37,060 | +$3,665 | -$16,935 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$255 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$4.29/sh | +$429 cycle +$1,489 [-$82…+$421] · 62% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$36,675 NOT cap gain +$4,050 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$252 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$1.74/sh | +$174 cycle +$1,234 [-$226…+$163] · 38% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$37,136 NOT cap gain +$3,589 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$265 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.52/sh | +$152 cycle +$1,212 [-$390…+$98] · 32% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$35,997 NOT cap gain +$4,728 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$255 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.62/sh | +$62 cycle +$1,122 [-$364…+$22] · 26% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$37,042 NOT cap gain +$3,683 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$305 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$10.05/sh | -$1,005 cycle +$55 [-$1,920…-$1,226] | 85% surv 82% | -$33,333 NOT cap gain +$7,392 |
| budget: banked $1,060 debit $1,005 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $905/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,543/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,181/mo) | +108% |
| vs normal income ($4,363/mo) | 104% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,032/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,384 |
| … as % of IC ($12,800) | 276.4% |
| … as % of ML ($48,300) | 73.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 8.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-40,810 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $249.97 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $250-263.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $263.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $252.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,060 | $-37,310 | +$3,415 | +$1,055 |
| +2.5% | $258.81 (≤1σ, normal week) | $429 | $-37,338 | +$3,387 | +$424 |
| +5% | $265.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-202 | $-37,367 | +$3,358 | -$208 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $588.00 (9.2σ) | $-32,490 | $-38,820 | +$1,905 | -$18,695 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $171/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,420/mo) | -97% |
| vs normal income ($12,840/mo) | 1% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-323/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($133,440) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-74,612 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 15d left | 3-14d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $217.80 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $218-220.37 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $220.37 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $220.00 (2.9σ) | $160 | $3,743 | +$78,219 | +$8,152 |
| +2.5% | $225.50 (3.1σ) | $-4,240 | $4,654 | +$79,130 | +$8,152 |
| +5% | $231.00 (3.2σ) | $-8,640 | $5,565 | +$80,041 | +$8,152 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$160 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$2.78/sh | +$2,226 cycle +$2,802 [+$2,072…+$3,340] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$51,551 NOT cap gain +$22,925 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$176 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.89/sh | +$714 cycle +$1,290 [+$188…+$1,820] · 81% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$37,768 NOT cap gain +$36,708 |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$167 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$49 cycle +$625 [-$376…+$813] · 51% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$47,123 NOT cap gain +$27,353 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$181 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.36/sh | -$288 cycle +$288 [-$967…+$675] · 38% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$33,942 NOT cap gain +$40,534 |
| budget: banked $576 debit $288 (50% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$288 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $5,173/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,469/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,420/mo) | -62% |
| vs normal income ($12,840/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,974/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$45,920 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 341.7% |
| … as % of ML ($133,440) | 34.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-74,536 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $158.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $158-160.79 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $160.79 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $160.00 (1.5σ) | $576 | $-53,777 | +$20,699 | +$568 |
| +2.5% | $164.00 (1.8σ) | $-2,624 | $-53,114 | +$21,362 | -$2,632 |
| +5% | $168.00 (2.0σ) | $-5,824 | $-52,452 | +$22,024 | -$5,832 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (5.1σ) | $-40,144 | $-45,348 | +$29,128 | -$39,432 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$155 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$2.63/sh | +$2,102 cycle +$3,110 [+$1,856…+$2,659] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$56,071 NOT cap gain +$18,405 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$166 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$2.08/sh | +$1,661 cycle +$2,669 [+$993…+$2,320] · 97% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$46,045 NOT cap gain +$28,431 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$171 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.58/sh | +$467 cycle +$1,475 [-$404…+$1,020] · 59% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$42,410 NOT cap gain +$32,066 |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$161 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$182 cycle +$1,190 [-$429…+$587] · 50% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$52,352 NOT cap gain +$22,124 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$176 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.62/sh | -$498 cycle +$510 [-$1,582…-$44] · 24% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$38,548 NOT cap gain +$35,928 |
| budget: banked $1,008 debit $498 (49% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$510 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $4,627/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,320/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,420/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($12,840/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,825/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$49,488 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 368.2% |
| … as % of ML ($133,440) | 37.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-74,540 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $153.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $153-156.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $156.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $155.00 (1.1σ) | $1,008 | $-58,173 | +$16,303 | +$1,000 |
| +2.5% | $158.88 (1.4σ) | $-2,092 | $-57,531 | +$16,945 | -$2,100 |
| +5% | $162.75 (1.7σ) | $-5,192 | $-56,889 | +$17,587 | -$5,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (5.1σ) | $-43,712 | $-48,916 | +$25,560 | -$43,000 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$150 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$2.48/sh | +$1,981 cycle +$3,653 [+$1,567…+$2,416] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$60,356 NOT cap gain +$14,120 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$161 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.74/sh | +$1,395 cycle +$3,067 [+$505…+$1,662] · 92% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$50,474 NOT cap gain +$24,002 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$166 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$235 cycle +$1,907 [-$854…+$381] · 36% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$46,807 NOT cap gain +$27,669 |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$156 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.09/sh | +$75 cycle +$1,747 [-$674…+$186] · 32% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$56,623 NOT cap gain +$17,853 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$176 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$1.82/sh | -$1,457 cycle +$215 [-$2,992…-$1,495] · 5% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$38,843 NOT cap gain +$35,633 |
| budget: banked $1,672 debit $1,457 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$215 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $3,153/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,166/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,420/mo) | +12% |
| vs normal income ($12,840/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,671/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$52,824 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 393.0% |
| … as % of ML ($133,440) | 39.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-74,572 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $148.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $148-152.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $152.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $150.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,672 | $-62,337 | +$12,139 | +$1,664 |
| +2.5% | $153.75 (1.0σ) | $-1,328 | $-61,716 | +$12,760 | -$1,336 |
| +5% | $157.50 (1.3σ) | $-4,328 | $-61,095 | +$13,381 | -$4,336 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (5.1σ) | $-47,048 | $-52,252 | +$22,224 | -$46,336 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$144 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$2.30/sh | +$1,840 cycle +$4,920 [+$1,269…+$1,782] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$64,882 NOT cap gain +$9,594 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$155 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.37/sh | +$1,092 cycle +$4,172 [-$63…+$810] · 72% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$55,163 NOT cap gain +$19,313 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$149 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$264 cycle +$3,344 [-$599…+$29] · 26% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$61,785 NOT cap gain +$12,691 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$155 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$208 cycle +$3,288 [-$952…-$107] · 22% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$56,048 NOT cap gain +$18,428 |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$180 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$3.11/sh | -$2,492 cycle +$588 [-$4,802…-$3,209] | 91% surv 90% | -$34,607 NOT cap gain +$39,869 |
| budget: banked $3,080 debit $2,492 (81% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$588 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,538/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,420/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($12,840/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,705/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$56,216 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 418.3% |
| … as % of ML ($133,440) | 42.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.4 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-74,616 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $142.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $143-148.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $148.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $144.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,080 | $-66,722 | +$7,754 | +$3,072 |
| +2.5% | $147.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $200 | $-66,126 | +$8,350 | +$192 |
| +5% | $151.20 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,680 | $-65,530 | +$8,946 | -$2,688 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (5.1σ) | $-50,440 | $-55,644 | +$18,832 | -$49,728 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$160 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$2.78/sh | +$6,957 cycle +$8,757 [+$6,513…+$10,025] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$203,324 NOT cap gain +$16,676 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$176 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.89/sh | +$2,231 cycle +$4,031 [+$291…+$4,727] · 78% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$202,031 NOT cap gain +$17,969 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$167 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$153 cycle +$1,953 [-$1,500…+$1,917] · 51% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$207,529 NOT cap gain +$12,471 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$181 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.36/sh | -$900 cycle +$900 [-$3,590…+$1,375] · 37% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$203,262 NOT cap gain +$16,738 |
| budget: banked $1,800 debit $900 (50% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$900 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $16,165/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,714/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,063/mo) | -62% |
| vs normal income ($40,125/mo) | 19% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,714/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$552,452 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 350.8% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 237.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 13.8 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-220,188 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $158.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $158-160.79 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $160.79 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $160.00 (1.5σ) | $1,800 | $-210,281 | +$9,719 | +$1,725 |
| +2.5% | $164.00 (1.8σ) | $-8,200 | $-218,761 | +$1,239 | -$8,275 |
| +5% | $168.00 (2.0σ) | $-18,200 | $-227,241 | -$7,241 | -$18,275 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (29.9σ) | $-1,005,700 | $-1,064,641 | -$844,641 | -$348,275 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$155 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$2.63/sh | +$6,568 cycle +$9,718 [+$5,710…+$8,296] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$204,263 NOT cap gain +$15,737 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$166 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$2.08/sh | +$5,189 cycle +$8,339 [+$3,149…+$7,241] · 97% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$201,522 NOT cap gain +$18,478 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$171 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.58/sh | +$1,461 cycle +$4,611 [-$1,223…+$3,193] · 58% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$203,351 NOT cap gain +$16,649 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$161 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$569 cycle +$3,719 [-$1,354…+$1,726] · 51% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$208,043 NOT cap gain +$11,957 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$176 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.62/sh | -$1,557 cycle +$1,593 [-$4,876…-$255] · 24% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$204,469 NOT cap gain +$15,531 |
| budget: banked $3,150 debit $1,557 (49% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,593 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $14,460/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,063/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($40,125/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$563,602 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 357.8% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 242.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 14.0 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-220,200 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $153.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $153-156.34 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $156.34 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $155.00 (1.1σ) | $3,150 | $-210,831 | +$9,169 | +$3,075 |
| +2.5% | $158.88 (1.4σ) | $-6,538 | $-219,046 | +$954 | -$6,612 |
| +5% | $162.75 (1.7σ) | $-16,225 | $-227,261 | -$7,261 | -$16,300 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (29.9σ) | $-1,016,850 | $-1,075,791 | -$855,791 | -$359,425 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$150 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$2.48/sh | +$6,190 cycle +$11,415 [+$4,935…+$7,465] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$204,466 NOT cap gain +$15,534 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$161 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.74/sh | +$4,360 cycle +$9,585 [+$1,722…+$4,982] · 93% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$202,176 NOT cap gain +$17,824 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$166 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$733 cycle +$5,958 [-$2,449…+$1,191] · 38% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$203,904 NOT cap gain +$16,096 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$156 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.09/sh | +$235 cycle +$5,460 [-$1,976…+$574] · 33% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$208,202 NOT cap gain +$11,798 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$176 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$1.82/sh | -$4,553 cycle +$672 [-$8,972…-$4,571] · 4% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$205,390 NOT cap gain +$14,610 |
| budget: banked $5,225 debit $4,553 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$672 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $9,854/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $22,393/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,063/mo) | +12% |
| vs normal income ($40,125/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $22,393/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$574,027 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 364.5% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 246.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 14.3 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-220,300 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $148.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $148-152.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $152.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $150.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $5,225 | $-210,656 | +$9,344 | +$5,150 |
| +2.5% | $153.75 (1.0σ) | $-4,150 | $-218,606 | +$1,394 | -$4,225 |
| +5% | $157.50 (1.3σ) | $-13,525 | $-226,556 | -$6,556 | -$13,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (29.9σ) | $-1,027,275 | $-1,086,216 | -$866,216 | -$369,850 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$144 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$2.30/sh | +$5,751 cycle +$15,376 [+$3,960…+$5,350] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$202,785 NOT cap gain +$17,215 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$155 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.37/sh | +$3,413 cycle +$13,038 [-$159…+$2,378] · 71% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$201,003 NOT cap gain +$18,997 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$149 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$824 cycle +$10,449 [-$1,854…-$41] · 25% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$205,872 NOT cap gain +$14,128 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$155 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$649 cycle +$10,274 [-$2,926…-$537] · 20% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$203,768 NOT cap gain +$16,232 |
| SS $563 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$180 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$3.11/sh | -$7,787 cycle +$1,838 [-$14,888…-$10,159] | 91% surv 90% | -$202,703 NOT cap gain +$17,297 |
| budget: banked $9,625 debit $7,787 (81% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,838 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $4,807/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $41,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($20,063/mo) | +106% |
| vs normal income ($40,125/mo) | 103% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $41,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$584,627 |
| … as % of IC ($157,500) | 371.2% |
| … as % of ML ($232,500) | 251.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 14.6 mo |
| Surgical close (25 ct) | $-220,438 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $142.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $143-148.03 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $148.03 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $144.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $9,625 | $-208,536 | +$11,464 | +$9,550 |
| +2.5% | $147.60 (≤1σ, normal week) | $625 | $-216,168 | +$3,832 | +$550 |
| +5% | $151.20 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-8,375 | $-223,800 | -$3,800 | -$8,450 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $563.00 (29.9σ) | $-1,037,875 | $-1,096,816 | -$876,816 | -$380,450 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$91 | 27 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.50/sh | +$248 cycle +$698 [-$9…+$710] · 74% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$1,637 SAFE cap gain +$11,177 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 20 Nov 2026 | 14d left | -$0.43/sh | -$215 cycle +$235 [-$516…+$144] · 33% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$465 SAFE cap gain +$10,005 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 27 Nov 2026 | 21d left | -$0.68/sh | -$339 cycle +$111 [-$713…+$26] · 26% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$2,649 SAFE cap gain +$12,189 |
| budget: banked $450 debit $339 (75% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,236/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $964/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,866/mo) | -66% |
| vs normal income ($5,732/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $844/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-9,562 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $89.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $89-90.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $90.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $90.00 (1.3σ) | $450 | $680 | +$10,220 | +$1,340 |
| +2.5% | $92.25 (1.5σ) | $-675 | $754 | +$10,294 | +$1,340 |
| +5% | $94.50 (1.7σ) | $-1,800 | $828 | +$10,368 | +$1,340 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$88 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$1.09/sh | +$543 cycle +$818 [+$447…+$1,064] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$18 NOT cap gain +$9,522 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$93 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.24/sh | +$122 cycle +$397 [-$226…+$584] · 61% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$2,402 SAFE cap gain +$11,942 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$90 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.07/sh | +$35 cycle +$310 [-$174…+$442] · 59% credit | 71% surv 60% | +$715 SAFE cap gain +$10,255 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$95 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.37/sh | -$187 cycle +$88 [-$591…+$228] · 38% credit | 76% surv 70% | +$3,159 SAFE cap gain +$12,699 |
| budget: banked $275 debit $187 (68% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,406/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,179/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,866/mo) | -59% |
| vs normal income ($5,732/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,058/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$587 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 2.8% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 1.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-9,572 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $87.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $87-88.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $88.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $88.00 (1.7σ) | $275 | $-561 | +$8,979 | +$165 |
| +2.5% | $90.20 (1.9σ) | $-825 | $-489 | +$9,051 | +$165 |
| +5% | $92.40 (2.1σ) | $-1,925 | $-416 | +$9,124 | +$165 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$85 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$1.14/sh | +$572 cycle +$1,017 [+$384…+$877] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$1,418 NOT cap gain +$8,122 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$89 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.82/sh | +$411 cycle +$856 [+$8…+$752] · 75% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$729 SAFE cap gain +$10,269 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$87 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.13/sh | +$65 cycle +$510 [-$233…+$335] · 52% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$683 NOT cap gain +$8,857 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$91 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.06/sh | +$29 cycle +$474 [-$454…+$348] · 44% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$1,412 SAFE cap gain +$10,952 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$94 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.86/sh | -$431 cycle +$14 [-$1,031…-$157] · 18% credit | 79% surv 73% | +$2,552 SAFE cap gain +$12,092 |
| budget: banked $445 debit $431 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,011/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,907/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,866/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($5,732/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,786/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,917 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 9.1% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 5.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-9,570 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $84.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $84-85.95 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $85.95 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $85.00 (1.4σ) | $445 | $-1,990 | +$7,550 | -$165 |
| +2.5% | $87.12 (1.6σ) | $-617 | $-1,920 | +$7,620 | -$1,165 |
| +5% | $89.25 (1.8σ) | $-1,680 | $-1,850 | +$7,690 | -$1,165 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$81 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$1.21/sh | +$606 cycle +$1,361 [+$352…+$811] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$3,206 NOT cap gain +$6,334 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$85 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.89/sh | +$446 cycle +$1,201 [-$31…+$559] · 71% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$1,058 NOT cap gain +$8,482 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$83 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$102 cycle +$857 [-$239…+$192] · 42% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$2,469 NOT cap gain +$7,071 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$87 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.14/sh | +$68 cycle +$823 [-$473…+$151] · 35% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$370 NOT cap gain +$9,170 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$93 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$1.45/sh | -$727 cycle +$28 [-$1,478…-$694] · 4% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$2,033 SAFE cap gain +$11,573 |
| budget: banked $755 debit $727 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,521/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,236/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,866/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($5,732/mo) | 56% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,115/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,607 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 17.2% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 10.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-9,580 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $80.19 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $80-82.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $82.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $81.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $755 | $-3,812 | +$5,728 | +$145 |
| +2.5% | $83.02 (1.2σ) | $-257 | $-3,745 | +$5,795 | -$867 |
| +5% | $85.05 (1.4σ) | $-1,270 | $-3,678 | +$5,862 | -$1,880 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $87.00 (1.6σ) | $-2,245 | $-3,614 | +$5,926 | -$2,855 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$76 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$1.28/sh | +$640 cycle +$2,060 [+$301…+$586] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$5,172 NOT cap gain +$4,368 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$79 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.31/sh | +$654 cycle +$2,074 [+$65…+$517] · 81% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$3,383 NOT cap gain +$6,157 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.28/sh | +$138 cycle +$1,558 [-$304…+$28] · 27% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$4,432 NOT cap gain +$5,108 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.21/sh | +$106 cycle +$1,526 [-$606…-$96] · 20% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$2,332 NOT cap gain +$7,208 |
| SS $87 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$96 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$2.50/sh | -$1,252 cycle +$168 [-$2,400…-$1,618] | 90% surv 89% | +$3,772 SAFE cap gain +$13,312 |
| budget: banked $1,420 debit $1,252 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$168 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $715/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,086/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,866/mo) | +112% |
| vs normal income ($5,732/mo) | 106% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,965/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,442 |
| … as % of IC ($21,000) | 25.9% |
| … as % of ML ($33,500) | 16.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-9,605 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $75.24 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $75-78.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $76.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,420 | $-5,812 | +$3,728 | +$810 |
| +2.5% | $77.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $470 | $-5,749 | +$3,791 | -$140 |
| +5% | $79.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-480 | $-5,687 | +$3,853 | -$1,090 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $87.00 (1.6σ) | $-4,080 | $-5,449 | +$4,091 | -$4,690 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$580 | 27 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$3.67/sh | +$1,101 cycle +$1,293 [+$1,312…+$3,086] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$814 SAFE cap gain +$46,511 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$585 | 27 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.45/sh | +$136 cycle +$328 [+$520…+$2,199] · 91% credit | 70% surv 55% | +$1,358 SAFE cap gain +$47,055 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$585 | 27 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.45/sh | +$136 cycle +$328 [+$520…+$2,199] · 91% credit | 70% surv 55% | +$1,358 SAFE cap gain +$47,055 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $274/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,457/mo) | -96% |
| vs normal income ($14,914/mo) | 2% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-1,368/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-45,777 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 11d left | 3-10d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $574.20 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $574-580.90 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $580.90 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $580.00 (2.2σ) | $192 | $-287 | +$45,411 | +$5,382 |
| +2.5% | $594.50 (2.4σ) | $-4,158 | $-548 | +$45,150 | +$5,382 |
| +5% | $609.00 (2.5σ) | $-8,508 | $-809 | +$44,889 | +$5,382 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$478 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$6.71/sh | +$2,013 cycle +$2,634 [+$1,733…+$2,811] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$26,750 NOT cap gain +$18,947 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$518 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$5.13/sh | +$1,540 cycle +$2,161 [+$706…+$2,233] · 88% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$15,844 NOT cap gain +$29,854 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$490 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.82/sh | +$246 cycle +$867 [-$358…+$816] · 58% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$24,893 NOT cap gain +$20,805 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$538 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$16 cycle +$637 [-$1,057…+$632] · 41% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$11,728 NOT cap gain +$33,970 |
| SS $562 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,661/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,457/mo) | -64% |
| vs normal income ($14,914/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,019/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$28,219 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 37.3% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 28.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-45,732 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $472.73 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $473-479.69 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $479.69 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $477.50 (1.3σ) | $621 | $-28,763 | +$16,935 | +$561 |
| +2.5% | $489.44 (1.6σ) | $-2,960 | $-28,978 | +$16,720 | -$3,020 |
| +5% | $501.38 (1.9σ) | $-6,542 | $-29,193 | +$16,505 | -$6,602 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $562.50 (3.3σ) | $-24,879 | $-30,293 | +$15,405 | -$24,939 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$460 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$6.97/sh | +$2,090 cycle +$3,395 [+$1,591…+$2,520] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$30,924 NOT cap gain +$14,774 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$500 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$5.28/sh | +$1,583 cycle +$2,888 [+$405…+$1,743] · 86% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$20,052 NOT cap gain +$25,646 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$475 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.26/sh | +$77 cycle +$1,382 [-$828…+$201] · 32% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$28,608 NOT cap gain +$17,089 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$520 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.25/sh | +$74 cycle +$1,379 [-$1,415…+$105] · 28% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$15,921 NOT cap gain +$29,777 |
| SS $562 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$535 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$3.40/sh | -$1,020 cycle +$285 [-$2,777…-$1,084] · 10% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$12,786 NOT cap gain +$32,912 |
| budget: banked $1,305 debit $1,020 (78% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$285 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,007/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,593/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,457/mo) | -25% |
| vs normal income ($14,914/mo) | 38% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,951/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$32,785 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 43.3% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 32.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.2 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-45,742 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $455.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $455-464.50 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $464.50 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $460.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,305 | $-33,014 | +$12,684 | +$1,245 |
| +2.5% | $471.50 (1.2σ) | $-2,145 | $-33,221 | +$12,477 | -$2,205 |
| +5% | $483.00 (1.5σ) | $-5,595 | $-33,428 | +$12,270 | -$5,655 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $562.50 (3.3σ) | $-29,445 | $-34,859 | +$10,839 | -$29,505 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$452 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$7.07/sh | +$2,120 cycle +$3,875 [+$1,533…+$2,378] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$32,559 NOT cap gain +$13,138 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$493 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$5.32/sh | +$1,596 cycle +$3,351 [+$351…+$1,630] · 84% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$21,704 NOT cap gain +$23,994 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$468 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.37/sh | +$111 cycle +$1,866 [-$848…+$142] · 29% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$30,239 NOT cap gain +$15,458 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$513 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.31/sh | +$94 cycle +$1,849 [-$1,449…-$5] · 25% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$17,566 NOT cap gain +$28,132 |
| SS $562 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$533 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$4.27/sh | -$1,280 cycle +$475 [-$3,179…-$1,502] · 5% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$13,300 NOT cap gain +$32,397 |
| budget: banked $1,755 debit $1,280 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$475 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,596/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,521/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,457/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($14,914/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,879/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$34,585 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 45.7% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 34.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-45,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $447.98 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $448-458.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $458.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $452.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,755 | $-34,679 | +$11,019 | +$1,695 |
| +2.5% | $463.81 (1.0σ) | $-1,639 | $-34,882 | +$10,815 | -$1,699 |
| +5% | $475.12 (1.3σ) | $-5,032 | $-35,086 | +$10,611 | -$5,092 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $562.50 (3.3σ) | $-31,245 | $-36,659 | +$9,039 | -$31,305 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$432 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$7.29/sh | +$2,188 cycle +$5,728 [+$1,504…+$1,996] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$36,345 NOT cap gain +$9,352 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$473 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$5.39/sh | +$1,616 cycle +$5,156 [+$145…+$1,078] · 79% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$25,539 NOT cap gain +$20,159 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$448 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.64/sh | +$192 cycle +$3,732 [-$929…-$224] · 17% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$34,013 NOT cap gain +$11,685 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$493 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.45/sh | +$134 cycle +$3,674 [-$1,674…-$506] · 13% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$21,381 NOT cap gain +$24,317 |
| SS $562 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$543 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$7.89/sh | -$2,366 cycle +$1,174 [-$5,012…-$3,304] | 90% surv 89% | -$9,782 NOT cap gain +$35,916 |
| budget: banked $3,540 debit $2,366 (67% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,174 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,009/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $15,171/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,457/mo) | +103% |
| vs normal income ($14,914/mo) | 102% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,529/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,800 |
| … as % of IC ($75,750) | 51.2% |
| … as % of ML ($99,750) | 38.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-45,780 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $428.18 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $428-444.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $444.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $432.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,540 | $-38,534 | +$7,164 | +$3,480 |
| +2.5% | $443.31 (≤1σ, normal week) | $296 | $-38,728 | +$6,969 | +$236 |
| +5% | $454.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,948 | $-38,923 | +$6,774 | -$3,008 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $562.50 (3.3σ) | $-35,460 | $-40,874 | +$4,824 | -$35,520 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$117 | 20 Nov 2026 | 14d left | -$1.55/sh | -$776 cycle -$771 | 66% surv 51% | +$751 SAFE cap gain +$29,761 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $11/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,741/mo) | -99% |
| vs normal income ($3,482/mo) | 0% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-32/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-29,015 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $115.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $116-117.02 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $117.02 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $117.00 (6.3σ) | $5 | $1,526 | +$30,536 | +$1,500 |
| +2.5% | $119.92 (6.6σ) | $-1,457 | $1,738 | +$30,748 | +$1,500 |
| +5% | $122.85 (7.0σ) | $-2,920 | $1,951 | +$30,961 | +$1,500 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$73 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.84/sh | +$419 cycle +$604 [+$365…+$646] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$23,064 NOT cap gain +$5,946 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$74 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.96/sh | +$480 cycle +$665 [+$364…+$685] · 98% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$22,242 NOT cap gain +$6,768 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$74 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.22/sh | +$110 cycle +$295 [-$7…+$263] · 73% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$22,612 NOT cap gain +$6,398 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$77 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.01/sh | +$5 cycle +$190 [-$197…+$166] · 45% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$21,286 NOT cap gain +$7,724 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$79 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.34/sh | -$168 cycle +$17 [-$442…-$12] · 24% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$20,028 NOT cap gain +$8,982 |
| budget: banked $185 debit $168 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,193/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $793/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,741/mo) | -54% |
| vs normal income ($3,482/mo) | 23% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $750/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,750 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 150.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 46.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.2 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-29,020 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $72.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $72-73.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $73.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $73.00 (1.6σ) | $185 | $-23,484 | +$5,526 | +$180 |
| +2.5% | $74.82 (1.9σ) | $-727 | $-23,351 | +$5,659 | -$732 |
| +5% | $76.65 (2.2σ) | $-1,640 | $-23,219 | +$5,791 | -$1,645 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (8.4σ) | $-20,315 | $-20,511 | +$8,499 | -$20,320 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$71 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.88/sh | +$438 cycle +$733 [+$367…+$615] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$24,080 NOT cap gain +$4,930 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$72 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$1.00/sh | +$498 cycle +$793 [+$354…+$680] · 99% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$23,259 NOT cap gain +$5,751 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$72 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.26/sh | +$129 cycle +$424 [-$7…+$273] · 73% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$23,628 NOT cap gain +$5,382 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$75 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$25 cycle +$320 [-$201…+$161] · 43% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$22,301 NOT cap gain +$6,709 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$77 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.29/sh | -$145 cycle +$150 [-$444…-$19] · 23% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$21,040 NOT cap gain +$7,970 |
| budget: banked $295 debit $145 (49% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$150 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,183/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,264/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,741/mo) | -27% |
| vs normal income ($3,482/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,221/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,640 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 156.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 48.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.5 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-29,018 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $70.29 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $70-71.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $71.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $71.00 (1.2σ) | $295 | $-24,519 | +$4,491 | +$290 |
| +2.5% | $72.77 (1.5σ) | $-592 | $-24,390 | +$4,620 | -$597 |
| +5% | $74.55 (1.8σ) | $-1,480 | $-24,261 | +$4,749 | -$1,485 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (8.4σ) | $-21,205 | $-21,401 | +$7,609 | -$21,210 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$69 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.91/sh | +$455 cycle +$915 [+$338…+$589] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$25,043 NOT cap gain +$3,967 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$70 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$1.03/sh | +$514 cycle +$974 [+$330…+$654] · 99% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$24,223 NOT cap gain +$4,787 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$70 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.29/sh | +$147 cycle +$607 [-$25…+$245] · 69% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$24,590 NOT cap gain +$4,420 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$73 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$43 cycle +$503 [-$227…+$122] · 37% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$23,263 NOT cap gain +$5,747 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$75 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.61/sh | -$307 cycle +$153 [-$658…-$272] · 8% credit | 80% surv 76% | -$22,182 NOT cap gain +$6,828 |
| budget: banked $460 debit $307 (67% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$153 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,256/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,971/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,741/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($3,482/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,929/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$23,475 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 161.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 49.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 6.7 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-29,020 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $68.31 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $68-69.94 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $69.94 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $69.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $460 | $-25,499 | +$3,511 | +$455 |
| +2.5% | $70.72 (1.2σ) | $-402 | $-25,374 | +$3,636 | -$407 |
| +5% | $72.45 (1.5σ) | $-1,265 | $-25,248 | +$3,762 | -$1,270 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (8.4σ) | $-22,040 | $-22,236 | +$6,774 | -$22,045 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$66 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.96/sh | +$478 cycle +$1,343 [+$311…+$457] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$26,333 NOT cap gain +$2,677 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$67 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$1.07/sh | +$535 cycle +$1,400 [+$282…+$478] · 98% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$25,515 NOT cap gain +$3,495 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$67 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.34/sh | +$171 cycle +$1,036 [-$57…+$111] · 57% credit | 71% surv 59% | -$25,879 NOT cap gain +$3,131 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$70 | 20 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$66 cycle +$931 [-$290…-$40] · 21% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$24,552 NOT cap gain +$4,458 |
| SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$75 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | -$1.54/sh | -$772 cycle +$93 [-$1,375…-$958] | 90% surv 89% | -$22,242 NOT cap gain +$6,768 |
| budget: banked $865 debit $772 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$93 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $729/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,707/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,741/mo) | +113% |
| vs normal income ($3,482/mo) | 106% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,664/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,570 |
| … as % of IC ($14,500) | 169.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,000) | 52.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 7.1 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-29,028 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $65.34 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $65-67.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $67.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $66.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $865 | $-26,811 | +$2,199 | +$860 |
| +2.5% | $67.65 (≤1σ, normal week) | $40 | $-26,691 | +$2,319 | +$35 |
| +5% | $69.30 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-785 | $-26,572 | +$2,438 | -$790 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $114.00 (8.4σ) | $-23,135 | $-23,331 | +$5,679 | -$23,140 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Gross FIGHT income | $557/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,906/mo) | -93% |
| vs normal income ($15,812/mo) | 4% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $-790/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($42,000) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,000) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-50,115 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 15d left | 3-14d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,623.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,624-1,646.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,646.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,640.00 (2.0σ) | $520 | $-1,513 | +$48,517 | +$2,335 |
| +2.5% | $1,681.00 (2.1σ) | $-3,580 | $-1,775 | +$48,255 | +$2,335 |
| +5% | $1,722.00 (2.3σ) | $-7,680 | $-2,038 | +$47,992 | +$2,335 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,310 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$22.65/sh | +$2,265 cycle +$3,035 [+$2,084…+$3,209] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$29,885 NOT cap gain +$20,145 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,423 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$5.10/sh | +$510 cycle +$1,280 [-$445…+$1,280] · 64% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$21,084 NOT cap gain +$28,946 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,358 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.88/sh | +$88 cycle +$858 [-$515…+$706] · 54% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$27,589 NOT cap gain +$22,441 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,433 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.77/sh | +$177 cycle +$947 [-$855…+$943] · 53% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$20,480 NOT cap gain +$29,550 |
| SS $1,620 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,463 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$6.20/sh | -$620 cycle +$150 [-$1,788…+$93] · 27% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$18,470 NOT cap gain +$31,560 |
| budget: banked $770 debit $620 (81% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$150 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $5,044/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,906/mo) | -58% |
| vs normal income ($15,812/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,953/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$31,905 |
| … as % of IC ($42,000) | 76.0% |
| … as % of ML ($99,000) | 32.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-50,045 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,296.90 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,297-1,317.85 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,317.85 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,310.00 (1.4σ) | $770 | $-32,151 | +$17,879 | +$585 |
| +2.5% | $1,342.75 (1.7σ) | $-2,505 | $-32,360 | +$17,670 | -$2,690 |
| +5% | $1,375.50 (1.9σ) | $-5,780 | $-32,570 | +$17,460 | -$5,965 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,620.00 (3.8σ) | $-30,230 | $-34,135 | +$15,895 | -$30,415 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,265 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$23.24/sh | +$2,324 cycle +$3,614 [+$1,926…+$2,887] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$33,519 NOT cap gain +$16,511 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,368 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$8.67/sh | +$867 cycle +$2,157 [-$311…+$1,330] · 65% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$25,355 NOT cap gain +$24,675 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,313 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$1.59/sh | +$159 cycle +$1,449 [-$631…+$520] · 42% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$31,211 NOT cap gain +$18,819 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,388 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$2.46/sh | +$246 cycle +$1,536 [-$1,057…+$654] · 40% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$24,104 NOT cap gain +$25,926 |
| SS $1,620 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,448 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$12.47/sh | -$1,247 cycle +$43 [-$2,927…-$991] · 10% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$19,981 NOT cap gain +$30,049 |
| budget: banked $1,290 debit $1,247 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$43 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,060/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,529/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,906/mo) | -30% |
| vs normal income ($15,812/mo) | 35% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,181/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$35,885 |
| … as % of IC ($42,000) | 85.4% |
| … as % of ML ($99,000) | 36.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-50,045 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,252.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,252-1,278.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,278.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,265.00 (1.1σ) | $1,290 | $-35,843 | +$14,187 | +$1,105 |
| +2.5% | $1,296.62 (1.3σ) | $-1,872 | $-36,045 | +$13,985 | -$2,058 |
| +5% | $1,328.25 (1.5σ) | $-5,035 | $-36,248 | +$13,782 | -$5,220 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,620.00 (3.8σ) | $-34,210 | $-38,115 | +$11,915 | -$34,395 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,230 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$23.63/sh | +$2,363 cycle +$4,283 [+$1,861…+$2,730] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$36,126 NOT cap gain +$13,904 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,273 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$31.20/sh | +$3,120 cycle +$5,040 [+$2,153…+$3,346] · 100% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$31,363 NOT cap gain +$18,667 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,278 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$2.07/sh | +$207 cycle +$2,127 [-$697…+$290] · 35% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$33,808 NOT cap gain +$16,222 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,363 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.22/sh | +$22 cycle +$1,942 [-$1,496…+$21] · 26% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$26,038 NOT cap gain +$23,992 |
| SS $1,620 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,453 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$19.00/sh | -$1,900 cycle +$20 [-$3,944…-$2,087] · 2% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$19,535 NOT cap gain +$30,495 |
| budget: banked $1,920 debit $1,900 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,090/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,229/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,906/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($15,812/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,881/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,755 |
| … as % of IC ($42,000) | 92.3% |
| … as % of ML ($99,000) | 39.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-50,050 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,217.70 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,218-1,249.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,249.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,230.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,920 | $-38,489 | +$11,541 | +$1,735 |
| +2.5% | $1,260.75 (1.0σ) | $-1,155 | $-38,686 | +$11,344 | -$1,340 |
| +5% | $1,291.50 (1.3σ) | $-4,230 | $-38,882 | +$11,148 | -$4,415 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,620.00 (3.8σ) | $-37,080 | $-40,985 | +$9,045 | -$37,265 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,165 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$24.20/sh | +$2,420 cycle +$6,290 [+$1,770…+$2,263] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$40,203 NOT cap gain +$9,827 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,208 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$31.45/sh | +$3,145 cycle +$7,015 [+$1,910…+$2,784] · 100% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$35,473 NOT cap gain +$14,557 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,218 | 13 Nov 2026 | 10d left | +$0.48/sh | +$48 cycle +$3,918 [-$1,176…-$380] · 13% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$37,633 NOT cap gain +$12,397 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,298 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.89/sh | +$89 cycle +$3,959 [-$1,844…-$560] · 12% credit | 80% surv 75% | -$30,105 NOT cap gain +$19,925 |
| SS $1,620 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,448 | 27 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$25.58/sh | -$2,558 cycle +$1,312 [-$5,378…-$3,501] | 90% surv 89% | -$18,712 NOT cap gain +$31,318 |
| budget: banked $3,870 debit $2,558 (66% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,312 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,978/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,586/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,906/mo) | +110% |
| vs normal income ($15,812/mo) | 105% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,238/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$43,305 |
| … as % of IC ($42,000) | 103.1% |
| … as % of ML ($99,000) | 43.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-50,070 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,153.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $1,153-1,204.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $1,204.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $1,165.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,870 | $-42,623 | +$7,407 | +$3,685 |
| +2.5% | $1,194.12 (≤1σ, normal week) | $958 | $-42,809 | +$7,221 | +$772 |
| +5% | $1,223.25 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,955 | $-42,996 | +$7,034 | -$2,140 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $1,620.00 (3.8σ) | $-41,630 | $-45,535 | +$4,495 | -$41,815 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $150C 30 Oct 2026 (0d) locks $5,878 if assigned (floor $164.69) | $130.01 | $151.88 | $0.01 | $0.01 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.99 OTM. The $0.01 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$734 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $149.25 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150x $23C 30 Oct 2026 (0d) locks $53,410 if assigned (floor $26.56) | $19.93 | $23.12 | $0.01 | $0.01 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.07 OTM = 15.4% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $0.01 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,050 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $23.12 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10x $97C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $31,729 if assigned (floor $128.73) | $82.72 | $98.11 | $0.17 | $0.17 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.28 OTM = 17.3% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,060 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $98.11 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $77C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $29,819 if assigned (floor $136.64) | $54.42 | $77.58 | $0.04 | $0.04 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 22.58 OTM = 41.5% (6.0x a typical daily move). The $0.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$265 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $77.58 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10x $215C 4 Nov 2026 (5d) locks $17,434 if assigned (floor $232.43) | $202.93 | $215.83 | $0.53 | $0.53 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 12.07 OTM = 5.9% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $0.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$784 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $215.83 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $292.5C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $101,993 if assigned (floor $360.50) | $276.50 | $293.77 | $1.02 | $1.02 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.00 OTM = 5.8% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $1.02 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,829 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $293.77 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $292.5C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $84,319 if assigned (floor $461.14) | $276.50 | $293.77 | $1.02 | $1.02 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.00 OTM = 5.8% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $1.02 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$610 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $293.77 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $300C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $36,212 if assigned (floor $372.42) | $276.50 | $301.43 | $0.49 | $0.49 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.50 OTM = 8.5% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $0.49 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$690 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $301.43 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| PATH | Main:1299 | 35x $15C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $7,166 if assigned (floor $17.05) | $13.71 | $15.11 | $0.06 | $0.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.29 OTM = 9.4% (2.7x a typical daily move). The $0.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$210 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $15.11 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $150C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $25,571 if assigned (floor $201.14) | $135.45 | $152.07 | $0.62 | $0.62 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.55 OTM = 10.7% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $0.62 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,010 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $152.07 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10x $28C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $33,346 if assigned (floor $61.35) | $25.21 | $28.26 | $0.20 | $0.20 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.79 OTM = 11.1% (2.3x a typical daily move). The $0.20 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$210 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $28.26 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| AMD | Main:1299 | 2x $565C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $25,440 if assigned (floor $692.20) | $497.48 | $572.87 | $5.08 | $5.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 67.52 OTM = 13.6% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $5.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,563 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $572.87 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $187.5C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $20,160 if assigned (floor $227.82) | $162.87 | $189.72 | $1.37 | $1.37 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 24.63 OTM = 15.1% (2.7x a typical daily move). The $1.37 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,085 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $189.72 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| ASST | Neville:0865 | 30x $26C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $14,174 if assigned (floor $30.72) | $22.07 | $26.32 | $0.24 | $0.24 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.93 OTM = 17.8% (2.6x a typical daily move). The $0.24 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$810 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $26.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| RKLB-LC115 | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $64C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) locks $57,761 if assigned (floor $160.27) | $54.19 | $64.39 | $0.18 | $0.18 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.81 OTM = 18.1% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $0.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$202 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $64.39 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $78C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) locks $39,938 if assigned (floor $97.97) | $71.40 | $78.80 | $0.65 | $0.65 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.60 OTM = 9.2% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $0.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,500 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $78.80 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $975C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) locks $34,661 if assigned (floor $1,044.32) | $867.39 | $986.88 | $8.25 | $8.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 107.61 OTM = 12.4% (3.4x a typical daily move). The $8.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,913 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $986.88 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $33C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) | $27.20 | $33.89 | $0.70 | $0.70 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.80 OTM = 21.3% (3.0x a typical daily move). The $0.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,265 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $33.89 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $30.5C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) locks $54,362 if assigned (floor $57.68) | $23.56 | $31.33 | $0.66 | $0.66 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.94 OTM = 29.5% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $0.66 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,556 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $31.33 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $30.5C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) locks $75,214 if assigned (floor $68.11) | $23.56 | $31.34 | $0.66 | $0.66 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.94 OTM = 29.5% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $0.66 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,572 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $31.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 125x $22C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) locks $201,594 if assigned (floor $38.13) | $15.93 | $22.32 | $0.43 | $0.43 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.07 OTM = 38.1% (5.7x a typical daily move). The $0.43 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,375 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $22.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $31C 20 Nov 2026 (21d) locks $59,983 if assigned (floor $60.99) | $23.56 | $32.04 | $0.82 | $0.82 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.44 OTM = 31.6% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $0.82 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,980 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $32.04 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $31C 20 Nov 2026 (21d) locks $59,983 if assigned (floor $60.99) | $23.56 | $32.04 | $0.82 | $0.82 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.44 OTM = 31.6% (4.0x a typical daily move). The $0.82 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,974 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $32.04 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1080C 4 Dec 2026 (35d) locks $29,012 if assigned (floor $1,225.06) | $867.39 | $1,105.30 | $7.70 | $7.70 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 212.61 OTM = 24.5% (7.2x a typical daily move). The $7.70 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$5,050 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,105.30 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $394C 18 Dec 2026 (49d) locks $69,833 if assigned (floor $463.83) | $355.45 | $398.04 | $2.12 | $2.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 38.55 OTM = 10.8% (7.3x a typical daily move). The $2.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,990 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $398.04 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $121C 18 Dec 2026 (49d) | $103.96 | $122.75 | $0.98 | $0.98 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.04 OTM = 16.4% (7.8x a typical daily move). The $0.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,040 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $122.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| RKLB-STK-0865 | Neville:0865 | 10x $70C 18 Dec 2026 (49d) locks $45,000 if assigned (floor $115.00) | $54.19 | $73.19 | $1.90 | $1.90 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.81 OTM = 29.2% (5.9x a typical daily move). The $1.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,145 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $73.19 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $180C 15 Jan 2027 (77d) | $130.01 | $186.73 | $4.75 | $4.75 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ |
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 49.99 OTM = 38.5% (8.3x a typical daily move). The $4.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,683 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $186.73 (breakeven). | ||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $19.93 | $53.26 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 62.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $19.93 | $65.83 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 69.7% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [NO_HEDGE] |
| BMNR-LC35 | Main:1299 | 25 | $19.93 | $37.87 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $7.52 | $20.74 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 63.7% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $43.15 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 38.9% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC40 | RetireInc:7291 | 500 | $6.73 | $41.04 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 83.6% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Main:1299 | 2 | $649.20 | 2x $565C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) |
| ASST | Neville:0865 | 30 | $53.24 | 30x $26C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) [SP_EXPIRY_DRIFT] |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 150 | $36.42 | 150x $23C 30 Oct 2026 (0d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $78C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $77C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $56.15 | 10x $28C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $394C 18 Dec 2026 (49d) |
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 125 | $39.71 | 125x $22C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $292C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $292.5C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $300C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $292C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $292.5C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)] |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $33C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) |
| HOOD | Joint:1782 | 10 | $114.95 | 10x $97C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 12x $121C 18 Dec 2026 (49d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $31C 20 Nov 2026 (21d) |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 20x $31C 20 Nov 2026 (21d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $30C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $30C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $150C 30 Oct 2026 (0d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $180C 15 Jan 2027 (77d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $975C 13 Nov 2026 (14d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1080C 4 Dec 2026 (35d) |
| NVDA | Main:1299 | 10 | $264.80 | 10x $215C 4 Nov 2026 (5d) |
| PATH | Main:1299 | 35 | $18.50 | 35x $15C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $188C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) |
| RKLB-LC115 | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $64C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) |
| RKLB-STK-0865 | Neville:0865 | 10 | $115.00 | 10x $70C 18 Dec 2026 (49d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $150C 6 Nov 2026 (7d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 233 | 56% | 65% | +9pp |
| 60-70% | 438 | 64% | 64% | -0pp |
| 70-80% | 582 | 76% | 83% | +7pp |
| 80-90% | 792 | 84% | 86% | +2pp |
| 90-100% | 1308 | 94% | 96% | +2pp |
Touch odds: predicted 37% avg vs realized 32% touch rate over 3353 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.23x (W42) to 1.59x (W34) over 16 graded weeks; last week 0.58x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 354 real buyback(s) recorded · 230 roll(s), net +$0.88/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 230 real rolls: buyback $3.96/sh, replacement credit financed 122% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.88/sh (182 of 230 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.