FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 1 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 6 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 0 uncapped above water | 32 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $28,215/mo (50% of normal target)

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				TUNED	RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Tuned	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
GLXY ↗⚡ER 6d Main:1299 · This Fri	125	$25.38	$33.85	125 × $28.50 $1,625 cyc · $24,375/mo 91% surv · T:18%	96 × $28.50 $1,248 cyc · $18,720/mo 91% surv · T:18%	🎯 57 × $27.50 $1,881 cyc · $28,215/mo 84% surv · T:19%	114 × $27.50 $3,762 cyc · $56,430/mo 84% surv · T:34%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$879	-$34,326 (124.3% IC)	33.4%
TOTAL (1)	125	following every 🎯 $1,881 cyc · $28,215/mo		$1,625 cyc · $24,375/mo	$1,248 cyc · $18,720/mo	$1,881 cyc · $28,215/mo	$3,762 cyc · $56,430/mo		$879	-$34,326

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$28	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.77/sh	+$9,643 cycle +$11,268 [+$1,869…+$10,260] · 80% credit	69% surv 54%	-$46,457 NOT cap gain +$44,418
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$31	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.45/sh	+$5,670 cycle +$7,295 [-$4,223…+$6,292] · 64% credit	75% surv 68%	-$22,593 NOT cap gain +$68,282
Max even-money escape in the band	~$32	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$1,849 cycle +$3,474 [-$8,837…+$2,232] · 40% credit	77% surv 72%	-$15,789 NOT cap gain +$75,086
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$30	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$997 cycle +$2,622 [-$8,858…+$944] · 33% credit	75% surv 65%	-$37,890 NOT cap gain +$52,985

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $28.21	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $28-28.74	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $28.74	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$28.50 (1.4σ)	$1,625	$-56,100	+$34,775	-$1,500
+2.5%	$29.21 (1.8σ)	$-7,281	$-57,436	+$33,439	-$10,406
+5%	$29.93 (2.1σ)	$-16,188	$-58,772	+$32,103	-$19,313
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-138,500	$-77,119	+$13,756	-$82,750

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (96 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$28	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.77/sh	+$7,406 cycle +$8,654 [+$462…+$7,521] · 77% credit	69% surv 54%	-$48,346 NOT cap gain +$42,529
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$31	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.50/sh	+$4,804 cycle +$6,052 [-$3,309…+$4,833] · 62% credit	75% surv 66%	-$28,423 NOT cap gain +$62,452
Max even-money escape in the band	~$32	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$1,420 cycle +$2,668 [-$8,065…+$1,344] · 37% credit	77% surv 72%	-$15,870 NOT cap gain +$75,005
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$30	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$766 cycle +$2,014 [-$7,907…+$500] · 31% credit	75% surv 65%	-$37,774 NOT cap gain +$53,101

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $28.21	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $28-28.74	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $28.74	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$28.50 (1.4σ)	$1,248	$-55,752	+$35,123	-$1,152
+2.5%	$29.21 (1.8σ)	$-5,592	$-55,022	+$35,853	-$7,992
+5%	$29.93 (2.1σ)	$-12,432	$-54,291	+$36,584	-$14,832
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-106,368	$-57,921	+$32,954	-$63,552

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (57 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$28	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.73/sh	+$4,177 cycle +$6,058 [-$54…+$4,005] · 74% credit	69% surv 54%	-$60,592 NOT cap gain +$30,283
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$29	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.73/sh	+$4,165 cycle +$6,046 [-$926…+$3,960] · 69% credit	73% surv 64%	-$43,391 NOT cap gain +$47,484
Max even-money escape in the band	~$31	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.09/sh	+$517 cycle +$2,398 [-$5,382…+$211] · 28% credit	78% surv 72%	-$25,790 NOT cap gain +$65,085
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$29	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.05/sh	+$259 cycle +$2,140 [-$4,989…-$128] · 23% credit	75% surv 66%	-$47,297 NOT cap gain +$43,578
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$33	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.24/sh	-$1,394 cycle +$487 [-$7,699…-$1,796] · 6% credit	83% surv 79%	-$6,451 NOT cap gain +$84,424
budget: banked $1,881 debit $1,394 (74% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$487 cash · rolled 57 ct earn ≈ $8,606/mo while parked; 68 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $27.23	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $27-27.94	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $27.94	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$27.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,881	$-64,769	+$26,106	+$456
+2.5%	$28.19 (1.3σ)	$-2,038	$-61,383	+$29,492	-$3,463
+5%	$28.88 (1.6σ)	$-5,956	$-57,997	+$32,878	-$7,382
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-67,716	$-36,663	+$54,212	-$42,294

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (114 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$28	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.73/sh	+$8,355 cycle +$12,117 [-$278…+$7,825] · 74% credit	69% surv 54%	-$55,958 NOT cap gain +$34,917
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$29	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.73/sh	+$8,330 cycle +$12,092 [-$2,033…+$7,670] · 68% credit	73% surv 64%	-$38,770 NOT cap gain +$52,105
Max even-money escape in the band	~$31	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.09/sh	+$1,034 cycle +$4,796 [-$10,974…+$66] · 25% credit	78% surv 72%	-$24,817 NOT cap gain +$66,058
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$29	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.05/sh	+$518 cycle +$4,280 [-$10,272…-$384] · 19% credit	75% surv 66%	-$46,582 NOT cap gain +$44,293
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$33	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.24/sh	-$2,788 cycle +$974 [-$15,571…-$3,921] · 4% credit	83% surv 79%	-$7,389 NOT cap gain +$83,486
budget: banked $3,762 debit $2,788 (74% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$974 cash · rolled 114 ct earn ≈ $17,212/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $27.23	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $27-27.94	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $27.94	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$27.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,762	$-64,313	+$26,562	+$912
+2.5%	$28.19 (1.3σ)	$-4,075	$-64,846	+$26,029	-$6,925
+5%	$28.88 (1.6σ)	$-11,913	$-65,379	+$25,496	-$14,763
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-135,432	$-78,957	+$11,918	-$84,588

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$30	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.83/sh	+$10,385 cycle +$11,135 [+$1,458…+$11,550] · 82% credit	69% surv 54%	-$30,652 NOT cap gain +$60,223
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$33	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.56/sh	+$6,964 cycle +$7,714 [-$4,216…+$8,325] · 70% credit	74% surv 67%	-$6,236 NOT cap gain +$84,639
Max even-money escape in the band	~$34	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.24/sh	+$2,982 cycle +$3,732 [-$9,048…+$4,135] · 52% credit	77% surv 71%	+$407 SAFE cap gain +$91,282
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$32	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$1,669 cycle +$2,419 [-$9,419…+$2,232] · 40% credit	74% surv 65%	-$22,156 NOT cap gain +$68,719

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $29.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $30-30.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $30.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$30.00 (2.1σ)	$750	$-41,037	+$49,838	-$2,375
+2.5%	$30.75 (2.5σ)	$-8,625	$-42,444	+$48,431	-$11,750
+5%	$31.50 (2.8σ)	$-18,000	$-43,850	+$47,025	-$21,125
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-120,625	$-59,244	+$31,631	-$64,875

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$30	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.81/sh	+$10,135 cycle +$10,885 [+$3,725…+$10,936] · 85% credit	69% surv 54%	-$36,215 NOT cap gain +$54,660
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$32	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.52/sh	+$6,526 cycle +$7,276 [-$1,618…+$7,407] · 68% credit	75% surv 67%	-$11,987 NOT cap gain +$78,888
Max even-money escape in the band	~$33	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.21/sh	+$2,596 cycle +$3,346 [-$6,260…+$3,244] · 50% credit	77% surv 71%	-$5,291 NOT cap gain +$85,584
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$31	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$1,441 cycle +$2,191 [-$6,810…+$1,574] · 40% credit	74% surv 65%	-$27,696 NOT cap gain +$63,179

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $29.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $29-29.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $29.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$29.50 (1.9σ)	$750	$-46,350	+$44,525	-$2,375
+2.5%	$30.24 (2.3σ)	$-8,469	$-47,733	+$43,142	-$11,594
+5%	$30.98 (2.6σ)	$-17,688	$-49,116	+$41,759	-$20,813
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-126,875	$-65,494	+$25,381	-$71,125

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$28	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.75/sh	+$9,401 cycle +$10,026 [+$187…+$9,084] · 75% credit	69% surv 54%	-$53,012 NOT cap gain +$37,863
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$30	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.77/sh	+$9,587 cycle +$10,212 [-$1,361…+$9,305] · 71% credit	73% surv 63%	-$35,613 NOT cap gain +$55,262
Max even-money escape in the band	~$32	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.12/sh	+$1,487 cycle +$2,112 [-$11,269…+$692] · 31% credit	77% surv 72%	-$22,463 NOT cap gain +$68,412
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$30	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.06/sh	+$781 cycle +$1,406 [-$10,660…-$76] · 24% credit	75% surv 66%	-$44,419 NOT cap gain +$46,456

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $27.72	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $28-28.29	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $28.29	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$28.00 (1.2σ)	$625	$-62,412	+$28,463	-$2,500
+2.5%	$28.70 (1.5σ)	$-8,125	$-63,725	+$27,150	-$11,250
+5%	$29.40 (1.9σ)	$-16,875	$-65,037	+$25,838	-$20,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-145,750	$-84,369	+$6,506	-$90,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (54 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$27	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.71/sh	+$3,855 cycle +$5,745 [-$697…+$3,476] · 71% credit	69% surv 54%	-$66,142 NOT cap gain +$24,733
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$29	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.69/sh	+$3,753 cycle +$5,643 [-$1,702…+$3,312] · 65% credit	73% surv 64%	-$49,032 NOT cap gain +$41,843
Max even-money escape in the band	~$31	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.06/sh	+$341 cycle +$2,231 [-$5,915…-$251] · 21% credit	78% surv 73%	-$31,194 NOT cap gain +$59,681
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$29	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.03/sh	+$155 cycle +$2,045 [-$5,388…-$392] · 16% credit	75% surv 66%	-$52,630 NOT cap gain +$38,245
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$33	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.27/sh	-$1,450 cycle +$440 [-$8,160…-$2,117] · 3% credit	83% surv 80%	-$11,735 NOT cap gain +$79,140
budget: banked $1,890 debit $1,450 (77% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$440 cash · rolled 54 ct earn ≈ $7,715/mo while parked; 71 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $26.73	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $27-27.52	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $27.52	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$27.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,890	$-69,997	+$20,878	+$540
+2.5%	$27.67 (1.1σ)	$-1,755	$-66,471	+$24,404	-$3,105
+5%	$28.35 (1.4σ)	$-5,400	$-62,944	+$27,931	-$6,750
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-66,744	$-37,029	+$53,846	-$42,660

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (41 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$26	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.70/sh	+$2,850 cycle +$4,736 [-$1,167…+$2,433] · 65% credit	69% surv 54%	-$72,139 NOT cap gain +$18,736
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$28	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.75/sh	+$3,091 cycle +$4,977 [-$1,322…+$2,630] · 65% credit	73% surv 62%	-$59,998 NOT cap gain +$30,877
Max even-money escape in the band	~$30	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$148 cycle +$2,034 [-$5,435…-$513] · 14% credit	78% surv 73%	-$36,378 NOT cap gain +$54,497
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$28	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.01/sh	+$51 cycle +$1,937 [-$4,814…-$572] · 12% credit	75% surv 66%	-$57,726 NOT cap gain +$33,149
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$32	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.29/sh	-$1,194 cycle +$692 [-$7,137…-$1,930] · 1% credit	83% surv 80%	-$16,471 NOT cap gain +$74,404
budget: banked $1,886 debit $1,194 (63% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$692 cash · rolled 41 ct earn ≈ $5,533/mo while parked; 84 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $26.23	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $26-27.27	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $27.27	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$26.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,886	$-74,989	+$15,886	+$861
+2.5%	$27.16 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-830	$-70,666	+$20,209	-$1,855
+5%	$27.83 (1.1σ)	$-3,547	$-66,343	+$24,532	-$4,572
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-52,275	$-28,358	+$62,517	-$33,989

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (30 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$27	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.03/sh	+$3,082 cycle +$4,972 [-$562…+$2,636] · 71% credit	70% surv 59%	-$70,353 NOT cap gain +$20,522
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$26	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.68/sh	+$2,030 cycle +$3,920 [-$1,201…+$1,640] · 61% credit	69% surv 53%	-$77,993 NOT cap gain +$12,882
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$27	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.17/sh	+$499 cycle +$2,389 [-$3,221…+$0] · 25% credit	73% surv 63%	-$67,623 NOT cap gain +$23,252
Max even-money escape in the band	~$30	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.01/sh	+$30 cycle +$1,920 [-$4,454…-$583] · 10% credit	78% surv 73%	-$41,530 NOT cap gain +$49,345
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$32	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$0.60/sh	-$1,785 cycle +$105 [-$6,763…-$2,517]	86% surv 84%	-$22,095 NOT cap gain +$68,780
budget: banked $1,890 debit $1,785 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$105 cash · rolled 30 ct earn ≈ $3,907/mo while parked; 95 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.74	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $26-26.94	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $26.94	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 32 active short call(s) 2 TRIPPED · 3 watch · 1 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress Acct Call Spot Breakeven Mark Time value Status Action

GLD Main:1299 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $379.15 $378.34 $1.75 $-0.31 TRIPPED ▸ 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you

$2.06/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks GLD 1:1); only $0.00 is live theta (~$0). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. Rolling $377→$380 banks +$6.08/sh (+$6,075) and sells fatter forward theta (still $76 below BE SS $456, a partial recovery), you relocate the decay to a higher cap, not forfeit it.

▸ Gate on price: hold while GLD is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $380, above which this credit door closes.

🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $377C at ~$2.65 ($2,650), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask

CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (10 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$380 31 Jul 2026 (9d)	$3.02	+$0.38	+$375	-$123,522	53%	OUT+UP
$381 31 Jul 2026 (9d)	$2.69	+$0.04	+$35	-$122,459	56%	OUT+UP
$380 3 Aug 2026 (12d)	$3.40	+$0.75	+$750	-$123,147	53%	OUT+UP

BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (10 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$400 28 Aug 2026 (37d)	$2.74	+$0.10	+$95	-$95,742	79%	OUT+UP
$399 28 Aug 2026 (37d)	$2.89	+$0.24	+$243	-$96,998	78%	OUT+UP
$398 28 Aug 2026 (37d)	$3.10	+$0.45	+$450	-$98,193	77%	OUT+UP
$380 28 Aug 2026 (37d)	$8.73	+$6.08	+$6,075	-$117,822	51%	OUT+UP

SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (10 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$410 28 Aug 2026 (37d)	$1.49	-$1.16	-$1,160	-$82,967	88%	OUT+UP
$406 21 Aug 2026 (30d)	$1.34	-$1.31	-$1,312	-$88,732	87%	OUT+UP
$409 28 Aug 2026 (37d)	$1.55	-$1.10	-$1,097	-$84,308	87%	OUT+UP

META Main:1299 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $642.80 $653.94 $38.48 $25.68 TRIPPED ▸ 🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy

$12.80/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $25.68 is live theta (~$7,704). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss.

▸ Roll only if you can lift the cap for a credit (see escape paths); otherwise hold while it is not making new highs.

DELL RetireInc:7291 3x $420C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $418.00 $425.13 $7.10 $7.10 WATCH ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

2.00 OTM. The $7.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,525 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $425.13 (breakeven).

🚪 Escape paths deferred , DELL is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers DELL.

NEM Main:1299 5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $94.81 $97.96 $1.06 $1.06 WATCH ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

2.19 OTM. The $1.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$456 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Spike-vol name into a ~2-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $96.52 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell.

🚪 Escape paths deferred , NEM is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers NEM.

SPY Neville:0865 12x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (5d) $748.28 $758.65 $0.60 $0.60 WATCH ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

9.72 OTM. The $0.60 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$719 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $758.65 (breakeven).

🚪 Escape paths deferred , SPY is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers SPY.

MDB Neville:0865 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $310.36 $355.09 $0.63 $0.63 HARVEST ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

39.64 OTM. The $0.63 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$504 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $355.09 (breakeven).

NVDA Neville:0865 5x $212.5C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $205.15 $213.74 $1.03 $1.03 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

7.35 OTM. The $1.03 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$596 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $213.74 (breakeven).

IGV Main:1299 12x $96.5C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $92.13 $97.00 $0.18 $0.18 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

4.37 OTM. The $0.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$543 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $97.00 (breakeven).

QCOM RetireInc:7291 5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $170.50 $181.61 $2.22 $2.22 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

9.50 OTM. The $2.22 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$778 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $181.61 (breakeven).

CRWV Neville:0865 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $79.46 $84.96 $1.66 $1.66 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

4.54 OTM. The $1.66 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$453 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.96 (breakeven).

RKLB RetireInc:7291 6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $69.12 $76.39 $0.67 $0.67 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

5.88 OTM. The $0.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$801 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $76.39 (breakeven).

MU-LC970 Neville:0865 2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $950.00 $1,047.99 $12.84 $12.84 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

90.00 OTM. The $12.84 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,588 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,047.99 (breakeven).

ENPH RetireInc:7291 10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $39.99 $45.56 $0.15 $0.15 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

5.01 OTM. The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$506 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $45.56 (breakeven).

INTC Neville:0865 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) $102.74 $117.62 $2.98 $2.98 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

13.26 OTM. The $2.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$784 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $117.62 (breakeven).

GOOG-LC300 Neville:0865 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $347.77 $385.01 $4.26 $4.26 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

22.23 OTM. The $4.26 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$22,444 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $385.01 (breakeven).

COPX Joint:1782 20x $85C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $78.63 $85.40 $0.52 $0.52 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

6.37 OTM. The $0.52 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$705 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $85.40 (breakeven).

APP RetireInc:7291 1x $465C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $429.00 $475.80 $9.45 $9.45 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

36.00 OTM. The $9.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,075 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $475.80 (breakeven).

MU-LC880 Main:1299 5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $950.00 $1,069.99 $42.69 $42.69 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

100.00 OTM. The $42.69 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$9,972 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,069.99 (breakeven).

UAMY RetireInc:7291 25x $6.5C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $5.84 $6.67 $0.17 $0.17 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

0.66 OTM. The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$309 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $6.67 (breakeven).

AMZN Joint:1782 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $247.56 $283.10 $1.25 $1.25 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

32.44 OTM. The $1.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,048 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $283.10 (breakeven).

HIMS Main:1299 15x $39.5C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $32.73 $40.17 $0.57 $0.57 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

6.77 OTM. The $0.57 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$923 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $40.17 (breakeven).

MSTR-LC180 Joint:1782 10x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $100.68 $125.99 $0.72 $0.72 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

24.32 OTM. The $0.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$942 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $125.99 (breakeven).

IREN-LC25-1299 Main:1299 20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $40.06 $55.50 $0.42 $0.42 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

14.94 OTM. The $0.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$905 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.50 (breakeven).

IREN-LC25-1782 Joint:1782 20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) $40.06 $55.50 $0.42 $0.42 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

14.94 OTM. The $0.42 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$905 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.50 (breakeven).

BMNR-LC10 RetireInc:7291 50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) $17.11 $20.75 $0.25 $0.25 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

3.39 OTM. The $0.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,013 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $20.75 (breakeven).

MSTR-LC125 RetireInc:7291 4x $130C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) $100.68 $131.32 $1.06 $1.06 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

29.32 OTM. The $1.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$509 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $131.32 (breakeven).

SPCX Neville:0865 5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) $123.54 $167.67 $2.06 $2.06 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

41.46 OTM. The $2.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,308 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $167.67 (breakeven).

IREN-LC45 Neville:0865 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) $40.06 $55.87 $0.98 $0.98 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

14.94 OTM. The $0.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,638 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.87 (breakeven).

IREN-LC50 RetireInc:7291 20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d) $40.06 $55.85 $0.98 $0.98 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

14.94 OTM. The $0.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,610 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.85 (breakeven).

COIN-LC500 Main:1299 25x $210C 14 Aug 2026 (23d) $174.36 $216.23 $4.67 $4.67 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

35.64 OTM. The $4.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$15,443 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $216.23 (breakeven).

COIN-LC145 RetireInc:7291 3x $215C 14 Aug 2026 (23d) $174.36 $220.23 $3.98 $3.98 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

40.64 OTM. The $3.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,553 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $220.23 (breakeven).

COIN-LC165 Main:1299 8x $200C 21 Aug 2026 (30d) $174.36 $210.42 $8.38 $8.38 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

25.64 OTM. The $8.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,298 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $210.42 (breakeven).

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	CC-SS	↑ whole	Sell strike	Touch odds	Per cycle	Income @ strike	Normal income	Action
GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER TMRW	Neville:0865	5	$347.77	$376.07	8.1%	$377.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 98% surv	4%	$810	$12,150/mo (102%)	$11,934/mo	sell 5x $377.50 CC
CLSK ↗⚡ER 16d	RetireInc:7291	25	$15.10	$17.18	13.8%	$17.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 96% surv	8%	$200	$3,000/mo (45%)	$6,703/mo	sell 25x $17.50 CC
GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER TMRW	Joint:1782	5	$347.77	$338.86	0.0%	$362.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 86% surv	28%	$2,250	$33,750/mo (283%)	$11,934/mo	sell 5x $362.50 CC
RIOT ↗BBC⚡ER 9d	Joint:1782	50	$21.36	$20.76	0.0%	$23 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 84% surv	34%	$1,450	$21,750/mo (120%)	$18,188/mo	sell 50x $23 CC
MARA-LC40 ↗⚡ER 7d	Main:1299	200	$12.18	$14.68	20.5%	$15 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · 83% surv	36%	$7,400	$9,652/mo (26%)	$36,750/mo	sell 200x $15 CC
NOW ↗⚡ER TMRW	Main:1299	10	$102.78	$113.60	10.5%	$114 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 81% surv	40%	$2,360	$35,400/mo (260%)	$13,594/mo	sell 10x $114 CC

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$17.11	$39.13	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$17.11	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 43.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$17.11	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.49	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 16.4% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$37.37	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.1% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$12.18	$22.69	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 46.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$12.18	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.9% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$12.18	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 53.9% below BE SS

CAPPED: 32 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $465C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50	$17.13	50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $215C 14 Aug 2026 (23d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $200C 21 Aug 2026 (30d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $210C 14 Aug 2026 (23d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $85C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $420C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$56.15	10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $96C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $130C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $212C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (5d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.45	25x $6C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 887 of 1621 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	71	55%	85%	+29pp
60-70%	115	64%	88%	+24pp
70-80%	162	77%	98%	+22pp
80-90%	199	84%	99%	+15pp
90-100%	340	94%	100%	+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 75 real buyback(s) recorded · 18 roll(s), net +$0.84/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 --all | 2026-07-22 13:54

Gross FIGHT income	$24,375/mo
vs 50% target ($28,125/mo)	-13%
vs normal income ($56,250/mo)	43% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$24,375/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$65,277
… as % of IC ($27,625)	236.3%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	23.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)	$-92,250

Gross FIGHT income	$18,720/mo
vs 50% target ($28,125/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($56,250/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$20,079/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$50,133
… as % of IC ($27,625)	181.5%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	18.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (96 ct)	$-70,848

Gross FIGHT income	$28,215/mo
vs 50% target ($28,125/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($56,250/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$31,402/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$56,430/mo
vs 50% target ($28,125/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($56,250/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$56,946/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$68,653
… as % of IC ($27,625)	248.5%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	24.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (114 ct)	$-84,132

Gross FIGHT income	$11,250/mo
vs 50% target ($28,125/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($56,250/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,250/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$47,402
… as % of IC ($27,625)	171.6%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	17.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)	$-91,187

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$53,652
… as % of IC ($27,625)	194.2%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	19.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)	$-92,062

Gross FIGHT income	$9,375/mo
vs 50% target ($28,125/mo)	-67%
vs normal income ($56,250/mo)	17% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,375/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$72,527
… as % of IC ($27,625)	262.5%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	26.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)	$-93,812

Gross FIGHT income	$28,350/mo
vs 50% target ($28,125/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($56,250/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$31,678/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$35,112
… as % of IC ($27,625)	127.1%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	12.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (54 ct)	$-40,203

Gross FIGHT income	$28,290/mo
vs 50% target ($28,125/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($56,250/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$32,228/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,258
… as % of IC ($27,625)	102.3%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	10.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (41 ct)	$-31,078

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,666
… as % of IC ($27,625)	78.4%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	7.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (30 ct)	$-22,740

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$26.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,890	$-80,022	+$10,853	+$1,140
+2.5%	$26.65 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-60	$-75,066	+$15,809	-$810
+5%	$27.30 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,010	$-70,110	+$20,765	-$2,760
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-39,240	$-20,229	+$70,646	-$25,860

Gross FIGHT income	$28,380/mo
vs 50% target ($28,125/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($56,250/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$33,208/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,483
… as % of IC ($27,625)	59.7%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	5.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (22 ct)	$-16,797

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $25-26.73	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $26.73	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$25.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,892	$-85,133	+$5,742	+$1,342
+2.5%	$26.14 (≤1σ, normal week)	$490	$-79,762	+$11,113	-$60
+5%	$26.78 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-913	$-74,391	+$16,484	-$1,463
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-29,370	$-13,927	+$76,948	-$19,558

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (17 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$25	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.64/sh	+$1,088 cycle +$3,009	69% surv 53%	-$85,166 NOT cap gain +$5,709
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$26	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.20/sh	+$340 cycle +$2,261	73% surv 62%	-$79,327 NOT cap gain +$11,548
Max even-money escape in the band	~$28	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.13/sh	+$227 cycle +$2,148	77% surv 72%	-$58,190 NOT cap gain +$32,685
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$33	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$0.86/sh	-$1,459 cycle +$462	92% surv 91%	-$6,750 NOT cap gain +$84,125
budget: banked $1,921 debit $1,459 (76% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$462 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $1,087/mo while parked; 108 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$28,815/mo
vs 50% target ($28,125/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($56,250/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$33,878/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,128
… as % of IC ($27,625)	47.5%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	4.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (17 ct)	$-12,673

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $24.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $25-26.32	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $26.32	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$25.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,921	$-86,254	+$4,621	+$1,496
+2.5%	$25.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$859	$-84,713	+$6,162	+$434
+5%	$26.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-204	$-79,135	+$11,740	-$629
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.7σ)	$-23,086	$-9,873	+$81,002	-$15,504