FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s)  |  1 deep drawdown (FIGHT)  |  6 underwater (not deep DD)  |  8 skipped (CSV)  |  0 uncapped above water  |  32 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $2,700/mo (51% of normal target)

GENERATED2026-07-22 21:51

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped   every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick  |  click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes  |  fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.
POSITIONINCOME LADDER  ·  SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST
TUNEDRECOVERY
FortressCtPriceCC-SS🛡 Safe yield33% normal50% normal100% normalTunedBankedCap @ CC-SS↑ whole
CLSK ↗⚡ER 16d
RetireInc:7291 · This Fri
25$15.26$17.92
25 × $199d
$175 cyc · $583/mo
92% surv · T:17%
14 × $17
$126 cyc · $1,890/mo
90% surv · T:20%
🎯 20 × $17
$180 cyc · $2,700/mo
90% surv · T:12%
21 × $16.50
$357 cyc · $5,355/mo
83% surv · T:36%
S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×
--$1,651 (17.7% IC)17.4%
TOTAL (1)25
following every 🎯
$180 cyc · $2,700/mo
$175 cyc · $583/mo$126 cyc · $1,890/mo$180 cyc · $2,700/mo$357 cyc · $5,355/mo--$1,651

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 32 active short call(s)   3 TRIPPED  ·  4 watch  ·  2 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

FortressAcctCallSpotBreakevenMarkTime valueStatusAction
DELLRetireInc:72913x $420C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$434.60$425.13$23.40$10.12TRIPPED ▸🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸
GLDMain:129910x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$379.87$378.34$4.47$1.79TRIPPED ▸🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸
METAMain:12993x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$639.60$653.94$34.17$27.16TRIPPED ▸🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸
NEMMain:12995x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$95.64$97.96$1.66$1.66WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
CRWVNeville:08655x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$82.09$84.96$2.48$2.48WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
NVDANeville:08655x $212.5C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$206.97$213.74$0.82$0.82WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
SPYNeville:086512x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (5d)$747.31$758.65$0.39$0.39WATCH ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IGVMain:129912x $96.5C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$90.55$97.00$0.12$0.12HARVEST ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MDBNeville:08651x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$300.96$355.09$0.41$0.41HARVEST ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
QCOMRetireInc:72915x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$173.01$181.61$1.81$1.81OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
RKLBRetireInc:72916x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$71.55$76.39$1.19$1.19OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MU-LC970Neville:08652x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$953.50$1,047.99$6.80$6.80OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
INTCNeville:08655x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$103.76$117.62$2.33$2.33OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
ENPHRetireInc:729110x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)$40.01$45.56$0.29$0.29OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COPXJoint:178220x $85C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$79.64$85.40$0.80$0.80OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GOOG-LC300Neville:086515x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$346.55$385.01$4.15$4.15OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
UAMYRetireInc:729125x $6.5C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$5.96$6.67$0.25$0.25OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MU-LC880Main:12995x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$953.50$1,069.99$33.70$33.70OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
APPRetireInc:72911x $465C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$413.38$475.80$5.65$5.65OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
AMZNJoint:178210x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$245.10$283.10$1.02$1.02OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
HIMSMain:129915x $39.5C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$33.88$40.17$0.75$0.75OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MSTR-LC180Joint:178210x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$100.58$125.99$0.53$0.53OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IREN-LC25-1299Main:129920x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$41.90$55.50$0.42$0.42OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IREN-LC25-1782Joint:178220x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)$41.90$55.50$0.42$0.42OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
BMNR-LC10RetireInc:729150x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)$17.42$20.75$0.23$0.23OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MSTR-LC125RetireInc:72914x $130C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)$100.58$131.32$0.86$0.86OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IREN-LC45Neville:086520x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)$41.90$55.87$1.05$1.05OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IREN-LC50RetireInc:729120x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)$41.90$55.85$1.05$1.05OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
SPCXNeville:08655x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)$122.69$167.67$1.85$1.85OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC500Main:129925x $210C 14 Aug 2026 (23d)$172.70$216.23$4.12$4.12OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC145RetireInc:72913x $215C 14 Aug 2026 (23d)$172.70$220.23$3.50$3.50OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC165Main:12998x $200C 21 Aug 2026 (30d)$172.70$210.42$7.35$7.35OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown   sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

FortressAcctCtPriceCC-SS↑ wholeSell strikeTouch oddsPer cycleIncome @ strikeNormal incomeAction
GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER TMRWNeville:08655$346.62$375.098.2%$377.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 90% surv20%$740$11,100/mo (93%)$11,953/mosell 5x $377.50 CC
GLXY ↗BBC⚡ER 14dMain:1299125$25.35$33.1930.9%$33.50 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · 90% surv21%$1,500$2,812/mo (7%)$40,078/mosell 125x $33.50 CC
NOW ↗⚡ER TMRWMain:129910$99.07$113.0214.1%$114 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 85% surv32%$1,600$24,000/mo (178%)$13,463/mosell 10x $114 CC
RIOT ↗BBC⚡ER 9dJoint:178250$21.66$21.350.0%$23.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 83% surv34%$1,450$21,750/mo (117%)$18,562/mosell 50x $23.50 CC
GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER TMRWJoint:17825$346.62$338.940.0%$357.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · 82% surv36%$2,875$43,125/mo (361%)$11,953/mosell 5x $357.50 CC
MARA-LC40 ↗⚡ER 7dMain:1299200$12.27$14.7520.2%$15 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · 82% surv39%$8,400$10,957/mo (30%)$37,125/mosell 200x $15 CC

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s)   these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

FortressAcctCtPriceBE SSWhy excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299Main:129975$17.42$39.13excluded by CSV (Skip) · 55.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782Joint:1782150$17.42$30.29excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25Main:129950$17.42$44.46excluded by CSV (Skip) · 60.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHAMain:129950$14.56$17.33excluded by CSV (Skip) · 16.0% below BE SS
IBITJoint:178250$37.22$70.58excluded by CSV (Skip) · 47.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1299Main:1299200$12.22$22.69excluded by CSV (Skip) · 46.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC20-1782Joint:178250$12.22$24.33excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.8% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25Neville:0865250$12.22$26.40excluded by CSV (Skip) · 53.7% below BE SS
CAPPED: 32 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope
FortressAcctCtBE SSActive short calls
AMZNJoint:178210$256.2510x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
APPRetireInc:72911$588.001x $465C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
BMNR-LC10RetireInc:729150$17.1350x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)
COIN-LC145RetireInc:72913$182.403x $215C 14 Aug 2026 (23d)
COIN-LC165Main:12998$210.908x $200C 21 Aug 2026 (30d)
COIN-LC500Main:129925$563.0025x $210C 14 Aug 2026 (23d)
COPXJoint:178220$93.4020x $85C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
CRWVNeville:08655$125.455x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
DELLRetireInc:72913$398.003x $420C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
ENPHRetireInc:729110$56.1510x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
GLDMain:129910$456.0010x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
GOOG-LC300Neville:086515$373.0015x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
HIMSMain:129915$17.4715x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
IGVMain:129912$96.5012x $96C 24 Jul 2026 (2d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTCNeville:08655$114.005x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
IREN-LC25-1299Main:129920$44.0020x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
IREN-LC25-1782Joint:178220$44.0020x $55C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
IREN-LC45Neville:086520$56.5020x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)
IREN-LC50RetireInc:729120$63.4320x $55C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)
MDBNeville:08651$362.901x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
METAMain:12993$601.503x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
MSTR-LC125RetireInc:72914$161.004x $130C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)
MSTR-LC180Joint:178210$233.0010x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (9d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880Main:12995$1,028.605x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)
MU-LC970Neville:08652$1,220.002x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
NEMMain:12995$114.545x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
NVDANeville:08655$199.605x $212C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
QCOMRetireInc:72915$224.005x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
RKLBRetireInc:72916$141.556x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (2d)
SPCXNeville:08655$186.005x $165C 7 Aug 2026 (16d)
SPYNeville:086512$764.0012x $758C 27 Jul 2026 (5d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
UAMYRetireInc:729125$12.4525x $6C 31 Jul 2026 (9d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 887 of 1625 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?
Predicted survivalNAvg predictedRealized OTM rateGap
0-60%7155%85%+29pp
60-70%11564%88%+24pp
70-80%16277%98%+22pp
80-90%19984%99%+15pp
90-100%34094%100%+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 22% touch rate over 887 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 75 real buyback(s) recorded · 18 roll(s), net +$0.84/sh avg.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 --all  |  2026-07-22 21:51