FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $27,100/mo (50% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $19,626/mo ⚡ $2,800/mo of that is earnings-blocked (1 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $1,283,420 locked in if all 25 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 1 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | TUNED | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Tuned | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| ENPH ↗⚡ER TMRW RetireInc:7291 · This Fri | 10 | $37.51 | $60.05 | 10 × $4810d $380 cyc · $1,140/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5% | 8 × $48 $200 cyc · $2,000/mo 96% survhist 100% · T:8%hist 1% | 🎯⚡ 8 × $47 $280 cyc · $2,800/mo 95% survhist 100% · T:11%hist 5% | 10 × $45 $590 cyc · $5,900/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 13% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $2,164 | -$10,162 (139.2% IC) | 60.1% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | |||||||||||
| GLXY ↗⚡ER 8d Main:1299 · This Fri | 125 | $22.17 | $33.64 | 125 × $26 $2,000 cyc · $20,000/mo 95% survhist 100% · T:10%hist 1% | 101 × $26 $1,616 cyc · $16,160/mo 95% survhist 100% · T:10%hist 1% | 🎯 90 × $25 $2,430 cyc · $24,300/mo 90% survhist 99% · T:21%hist 13% | 104 × $24 $4,888 cyc · $48,880/mo 80% survhist 99% · T:40%hist 28% | — S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k× | $879 | -$75,361 (272.8% IC) | 51.8% |
| TOTAL (2) | 135 | following every 🎯 $2,710 cyc · $27,100/mo | $2,380 cyc · $21,140/mo | $1,816 cyc · $18,160/mo | $2,710 cyc · $27,100/mo | $5,478 cyc · $54,780/mo | $3,043 | -$85,524 | |||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.04/sh | +$37 cycle +$417 [-$527…+$771] · 52% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$11,923 NOT cap gain +$12,627 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 19d left | -$0.23/sh | -$227 cycle +$153 [-$799…+$448] · 38% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$10,519 NOT cap gain +$14,031 |
| budget: banked $380 debit $227 (60% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$153 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,993/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 14 Aug 2026 | 12d left | -$0.41/sh | -$405 cycle -$25 [-$957…+$223] · 32% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$12,911 NOT cap gain +$11,639 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,140/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | -58% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 21% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,019/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$11,673 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 159.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 24.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.1 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-24,765 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.59 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.59 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (1.6σ) | $380 | $-12,505 | +$12,045 | +$330 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (1.8σ) | $-820 | $-12,371 | +$12,179 | -$870 |
| +5% | $50.40 (2.0σ) | $-2,020 | $-12,236 | +$12,314 | -$2,070 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (2.9σ) | $-7,770 | $-11,592 | +$12,958 | -$7,670 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.43/sh | +$344 cycle +$544 [-$745…+$897] · 57% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$12,342 NOT cap gain +$12,208 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.32/sh | -$257 cycle -$57 [-$920…+$318] · 42% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$12,932 NOT cap gain +$11,618 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | -27% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,896/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,442 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 129.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 20.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-19,728 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.52 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $48-48.36 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $48.36 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $48.00 (3.0σ) | $200 | $-12,675 | +$11,875 | +$160 |
| +2.5% | $49.20 (3.3σ) | $-760 | $-12,301 | +$12,249 | -$800 |
| +5% | $50.40 (3.6σ) | $-1,720 | $-11,926 | +$12,624 | -$1,760 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-6,320 | $-10,162 | +$14,388 | -$6,240 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.47/sh | +$378 cycle +$658 [-$417…+$841] · 59% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$13,341 NOT cap gain +$11,209 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$47 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.28/sh | -$221 cycle +$59 [-$710…+$224] · 42% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$13,928 NOT cap gain +$10,622 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.23/sh | -$186 cycle +$94 [-$1,102…+$252] · 39% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$11,680 NOT cap gain +$12,870 |
| budget: banked $280 debit $186 (66% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$94 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $3,800/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,696/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,162 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 139.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 21.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-19,676 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.53 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.40 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.40 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.00 (2.7σ) | $280 | $-13,707 | +$10,843 | +$240 |
| +2.5% | $48.17 (3.0σ) | $-660 | $-13,341 | +$11,209 | -$700 |
| +5% | $49.35 (3.3σ) | $-1,600 | $-12,974 | +$11,576 | -$1,640 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-7,040 | $-10,882 | +$13,668 | -$6,960 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.08/sh | +$81 cycle +$671 [-$1,397…+$468] · 44% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$15,005 NOT cap gain +$9,545 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$45 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.19/sh | -$190 cycle +$400 [-$1,120…+$269] · 41% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$15,821 NOT cap gain +$8,729 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.59/sh | -$590 cycle +$0 [-$2,214…-$232] · 15% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$12,896 NOT cap gain +$11,654 |
| budget: banked $590 debit $590 (100% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$0 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,047/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,900/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +116% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 108% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,779/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,463 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 198.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 30.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.7 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-24,595 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.55 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-45.63 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.63 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.00 (2.1σ) | $590 | $-15,631 | +$8,919 | +$540 |
| +2.5% | $46.12 (2.4σ) | $-535 | $-15,505 | +$9,045 | -$585 |
| +5% | $47.25 (2.7σ) | $-1,660 | $-15,379 | +$9,171 | -$1,710 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-10,560 | $-14,382 | +$10,168 | -$10,460 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$52 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.52/sh | -$520 cycle -$460 | 72% surv 53% | -$8,897 NOT cap gain +$15,653 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$52 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.24/sh | +$240 cycle +$300 | 69% surv 54% | -$8,148 NOT cap gain +$16,402 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | -78% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 11% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $479/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,993 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 109.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 16.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-24,595 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $51.48 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $51-52.10 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $52.10 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $52.00 (4.1σ) | $60 | $-8,377 | +$16,173 | +$10 |
| +2.5% | $53.30 (4.4σ) | $-1,240 | $-8,232 | +$16,318 | -$1,290 |
| +5% | $54.60 (4.8σ) | $-2,540 | $-8,086 | +$16,464 | -$2,590 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-4,090 | $-7,912 | +$16,638 | -$3,990 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$51 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.29/sh | +$291 cycle +$361 [-$1,493…+$1,080] · 62% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$9,200 NOT cap gain +$15,350 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$51 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.47/sh | -$468 cycle -$398 [-$1,543…+$346] · 45% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$9,947 NOT cap gain +$14,603 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $700/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | -74% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $579/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,983 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 123.1% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 19.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-24,685 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $50.49 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-51.20 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $51.20 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $51.00 (3.8σ) | $70 | $-9,479 | +$15,071 | +$20 |
| +2.5% | $52.27 (4.2σ) | $-1,205 | $-9,336 | +$15,214 | -$1,255 |
| +5% | $53.55 (4.5σ) | $-2,480 | $-9,194 | +$15,356 | -$2,530 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-5,080 | $-8,902 | +$15,648 | -$4,980 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.34/sh | +$339 cycle +$439 [-$397…+$1,361] · 63% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$10,233 NOT cap gain +$14,317 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$50 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.42/sh | -$418 cycle -$318 [-$831…+$560] · 42% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$10,979 NOT cap gain +$13,571 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | -63% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $879/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,953 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 136.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 21.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-24,595 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $49.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $50-50.15 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $50.15 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $50.00 (3.5σ) | $100 | $-10,561 | +$13,989 | +$50 |
| +2.5% | $51.25 (3.9σ) | $-1,150 | $-10,421 | +$14,129 | -$1,200 |
| +5% | $52.50 (4.2σ) | $-2,400 | $-10,281 | +$14,269 | -$2,450 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-6,050 | $-9,872 | +$14,678 | -$5,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.39/sh | +$386 cycle +$536 [-$878…+$1,048] · 59% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$11,249 NOT cap gain +$13,301 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.37/sh | -$369 cycle -$219 [-$1,187…+$331] · 46% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$11,992 NOT cap gain +$12,558 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | -45% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 28% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,379/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,903 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 149.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 23.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-24,650 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $48.51 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $49-49.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $49.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $49.00 (3.2σ) | $150 | $-11,623 | +$12,927 | +$100 |
| +2.5% | $50.22 (3.6σ) | $-1,075 | $-11,486 | +$13,064 | -$1,125 |
| +5% | $51.45 (3.9σ) | $-2,300 | $-11,349 | +$13,201 | -$2,350 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-7,000 | $-10,822 | +$13,728 | -$6,900 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.45/sh | +$451 cycle +$711 [-$781…+$1,227] · 63% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$12,741 NOT cap gain +$11,809 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$48 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.30/sh | -$299 cycle -$39 [-$1,062…+$479] · 49% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$13,480 NOT cap gain +$11,070 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.25/sh | -$253 cycle +$7 [-$1,643…+$443] · 46% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$11,221 NOT cap gain +$13,329 |
| budget: banked $260 debit $253 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,775/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | -5% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 48% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,479/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,293 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 168.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 26.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.3 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-24,760 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $47.02 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $47-47.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $47.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $47.50 (2.8σ) | $260 | $-13,181 | +$11,369 | +$210 |
| +2.5% | $48.69 (3.1σ) | $-927 | $-13,048 | +$11,502 | -$977 |
| +5% | $49.88 (3.5σ) | $-2,115 | $-12,915 | +$11,635 | -$2,165 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-8,390 | $-12,212 | +$12,338 | -$8,290 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.02/sh | +$19 cycle +$299 [-$1,360…+$638] · 51% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$13,709 NOT cap gain +$10,841 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.25/sh | -$254 cycle +$26 [-$1,042…+$445] · 48% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$14,527 NOT cap gain +$10,023 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.21/sh | -$212 cycle +$68 [-$1,616…+$386] · 44% credit | 73% surv 62% | -$12,272 NOT cap gain +$12,278 |
| budget: banked $280 debit $212 (76% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$68 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,723/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,679/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$13,273 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 181.8% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 28.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.4 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-24,735 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $46.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.50 (2.5σ) | $280 | $-14,273 | +$10,277 | +$230 |
| +2.5% | $47.66 (2.9σ) | $-882 | $-14,143 | +$10,407 | -$932 |
| +5% | $48.83 (3.2σ) | $-2,045 | $-14,013 | +$10,537 | -$2,095 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-9,370 | $-13,192 | +$11,358 | -$9,270 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$32 cycle +$328 [-$1,194…+$356] · 42% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$14,226 NOT cap gain +$10,324 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.23/sh | -$186 cycle +$110 [-$874…+$205] · 39% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$14,989 NOT cap gain +$9,561 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.34/sh | -$275 cycle +$21 [-$1,567…+$20] · 27% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$12,310 NOT cap gain +$12,240 |
| budget: banked $296 debit $275 (93% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $3,591/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,960/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +9% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,856/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,946 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 149.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 23.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-19,696 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.54 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $46-46.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $46.00 (2.4σ) | $296 | $-14,803 | +$9,747 | +$256 |
| +2.5% | $47.15 (2.7σ) | $-624 | $-14,444 | +$10,106 | -$664 |
| +5% | $48.30 (3.0σ) | $-1,544 | $-14,086 | +$10,464 | -$1,584 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-7,824 | $-11,666 | +$12,884 | -$7,744 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$43 cycle +$358 [-$1,088…+$287] · 39% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$14,748 NOT cap gain +$9,802 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$46 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.21/sh | -$148 cycle +$167 [-$822…+$148] · 38% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$15,483 NOT cap gain +$9,067 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.33/sh | -$228 cycle +$87 [-$1,401…-$6] · 25% credit | 74% surv 64% | -$12,794 NOT cap gain +$11,756 |
| budget: banked $315 debit $228 (72% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$87 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $3,123/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +16% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 58% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,055/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,872 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 135.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 20.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-17,297 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $45.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $45-46.11 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $46.11 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $45.50 (2.2σ) | $315 | $-15,335 | +$9,215 | +$280 |
| +2.5% | $46.64 (2.6σ) | $-481 | $-14,866 | +$9,684 | -$516 |
| +5% | $47.77 (2.9σ) | $-1,277 | $-14,398 | +$10,152 | -$1,312 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-7,140 | $-10,992 | +$13,558 | -$7,070 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.17/sh | -$85 cycle +$215 [-$538…+$143] · 42% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$16,537 NOT cap gain +$8,013 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$307 [-$742…+$209] · 40% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$14,788 NOT cap gain +$9,762 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.57/sh | -$285 cycle +$15 [-$1,136…-$115] · 16% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$13,413 NOT cap gain +$11,137 |
| budget: banked $300 debit $285 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,009/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +10% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 55% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,923/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,476 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 102.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 15.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.4 mo |
| Surgical close (5 ct) | $-12,312 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $44.05 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-45.17 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $45.17 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.50 (2.0σ) | $300 | $-16,452 | +$8,098 | +$275 |
| +2.5% | $45.61 (2.3σ) | $-256 | $-15,771 | +$8,779 | -$281 |
| +5% | $46.73 (2.6σ) | $-813 | $-15,090 | +$9,460 | -$838 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-5,525 | $-9,397 | +$15,153 | -$5,475 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.15/sh | -$60 cycle +$228 [-$467…+$111] · 38% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$17,075 NOT cap gain +$7,475 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.03/sh | +$13 cycle +$301 [-$595…+$169] · 37% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$15,346 NOT cap gain +$9,204 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.55/sh | -$221 cycle +$67 [-$888…-$82] · 17% credit | 75% surv 66% | -$13,911 NOT cap gain +$10,639 |
| budget: banked $288 debit $221 (77% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$67 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,596/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,880/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +6% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 53% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,812/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,133 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 84.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 13.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.1 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-9,876 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.56 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $44-44.86 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.86 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $44.00 (1.8σ) | $288 | $-17,015 | +$7,535 | +$268 |
| +2.5% | $45.10 (2.1σ) | $-152 | $-16,232 | +$8,318 | -$172 |
| +5% | $46.20 (2.4σ) | $-592 | $-15,449 | +$9,101 | -$612 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-4,572 | $-8,454 | +$16,096 | -$4,532 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$44 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.13/sh | -$52 cycle +$260 [-$516…+$95] · 35% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$17,599 NOT cap gain +$6,951 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$45 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$19 cycle +$331 [-$689…+$136] · 34% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$15,871 NOT cap gain +$8,679 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.72/sh | -$288 cycle +$24 [-$1,084…-$194] · 11% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$13,954 NOT cap gain +$10,596 |
| budget: banked $312 debit $288 (92% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,483/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,120/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,052/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,309 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 86.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 13.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-9,914 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $43.06 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-44.52 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $44.52 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.50 (1.7σ) | $312 | $-17,547 | +$7,003 | +$292 |
| +2.5% | $44.59 (2.0σ) | $-123 | $-16,773 | +$7,777 | -$143 |
| +5% | $45.68 (2.3σ) | $-558 | $-15,999 | +$8,551 | -$578 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-4,748 | $-8,630 | +$15,920 | -$4,708 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$43 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.11/sh | -$44 cycle +$312 [-$461…+$70] · 34% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$18,103 NOT cap gain +$6,447 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.06/sh | +$26 cycle +$382 [-$618…+$93] · 33% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$16,376 NOT cap gain +$8,174 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.82/sh | -$329 cycle +$27 [-$1,059…-$300] · 6% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$13,952 NOT cap gain +$10,598 |
| budget: banked $356 debit $329 (93% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$27 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,405/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,560/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +31% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 65% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,492/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,465 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 88.6% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 13.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (4 ct) | $-9,860 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.57 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $43-43.99 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.99 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $43.00 (1.5σ) | $356 | $-18,059 | +$6,491 | +$336 |
| +2.5% | $44.07 (1.8σ) | $-74 | $-17,294 | +$7,256 | -$94 |
| +5% | $45.15 (2.1σ) | $-504 | $-16,528 | +$8,022 | -$524 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-4,904 | $-8,786 | +$15,764 | -$4,864 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.09/sh | -$28 cycle +$281 [-$367…+$41] · 31% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$18,685 NOT cap gain +$5,865 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$44 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.08/sh | +$24 cycle +$333 [-$495…+$55] · 31% credit | 73% surv 60% | -$16,976 NOT cap gain +$7,574 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.93/sh | -$278 cycle +$31 [-$896…-$282] · 6% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$13,943 NOT cap gain +$10,607 |
| budget: banked $309 debit $278 (90% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $995/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,090/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +13% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,031/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,957 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 67.9% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 10.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-7,398 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $42.08 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-43.64 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.64 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.50 (1.4σ) | $309 | $-18,657 | +$5,893 | +$294 |
| +2.5% | $43.56 (1.7σ) | $-10 | $-17,794 | +$6,756 | -$25 |
| +5% | $44.62 (2.0σ) | $-328 | $-16,932 | +$7,618 | -$344 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-3,786 | $-7,678 | +$16,872 | -$3,756 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.07/sh | -$22 cycle +$326 [-$389…+$33] · 29% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$19,196 NOT cap gain +$5,354 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.10/sh | +$29 cycle +$377 [-$527…+$38] · 28% credit | 73% surv 61% | -$17,488 NOT cap gain +$7,062 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$46 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.91/sh | -$273 cycle +$75 [-$917…-$309] · 6% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$14,455 NOT cap gain +$10,095 |
| budget: banked $348 debit $273 (79% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $986/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,480/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +28% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 64% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,421/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,068 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 69.4% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 10.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-7,392 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.58 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $42-43.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $43.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $42.00 (1.3σ) | $348 | $-19,174 | +$5,376 | +$333 |
| +2.5% | $43.05 (1.6σ) | $33 | $-18,322 | +$6,228 | +$18 |
| +5% | $44.10 (1.9σ) | $-282 | $-17,469 | +$7,081 | -$297 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-3,897 | $-7,789 | +$16,761 | -$3,867 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$42 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.06/sh | -$17 cycle +$352 [-$385…+$35] · 28% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$19,726 NOT cap gain +$4,824 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$43 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.11/sh | +$33 cycle +$402 [-$531…+$37] · 27% credit | 73% surv 61% | -$18,019 NOT cap gain +$6,531 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$1.19/sh | -$357 cycle +$12 [-$1,056…-$404] · 1% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$13,961 NOT cap gain +$10,589 |
| budget: banked $369 debit $357 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$12 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $855/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,690/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +35% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 68% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,631/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$5,197 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 71.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 11.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-7,418 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $41.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-42.91 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.91 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.50 (1.1σ) | $369 | $-19,709 | +$4,841 | +$354 |
| +2.5% | $42.54 (1.4σ) | $58 | $-18,867 | +$5,683 | +$43 |
| +5% | $43.58 (1.7σ) | $-254 | $-18,024 | +$6,526 | -$268 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-4,026 | $-7,918 | +$16,632 | -$3,996 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$41 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.04/sh | -$8 cycle +$274 [-$274…+$18] · 28% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$20,355 NOT cap gain +$4,195 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$25 cycle +$307 [-$384…+$19] · 27% credit | 73% surv 61% | -$18,665 NOT cap gain +$5,885 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$1.35/sh | -$269 cycle +$13 [-$791…-$310] | 81% surv 76% | -$13,956 NOT cap gain +$10,594 |
| budget: banked $282 debit $269 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $517/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,820/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,769/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,529 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 48.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 7.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-4,942 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.59 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $41-42.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $41.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $282 | $-20,347 | +$4,203 | +$272 |
| +2.5% | $42.02 (1.3σ) | $77 | $-19,412 | +$5,138 | +$67 |
| +5% | $43.05 (1.6σ) | $-128 | $-18,478 | +$6,072 | -$138 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-2,748 | $-6,650 | +$17,900 | -$2,728 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.02/sh | -$4 cycle +$308 [-$279…-$6] · 24% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$20,877 NOT cap gain +$3,673 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.14/sh | +$28 cycle +$340 [-$375…-$23] · 23% credit | 73% surv 61% | -$19,189 NOT cap gain +$5,361 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$1.46/sh | -$292 cycle +$20 [-$809…-$389] | 82% surv 78% | -$13,948 NOT cap gain +$10,602 |
| budget: banked $312 debit $292 (94% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $475/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,120/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +14% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 57% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,069/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,599 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 49.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 7.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-4,934 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $40.09 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-42.18 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $42.18 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $312 | $-20,873 | +$3,677 | +$302 |
| +2.5% | $41.51 (1.1σ) | $110 | $-19,950 | +$4,600 | +$100 |
| +5% | $42.52 (1.4σ) | $-93 | $-19,026 | +$5,524 | -$103 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-2,818 | $-6,720 | +$17,830 | -$2,798 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | -$0.00/sh | -$1 cycle +$343 [-$286…-$42] · 21% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$21,398 NOT cap gain +$3,152 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$42 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.00/sh | +$0 cycle +$344 [-$426…-$95] · 18% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$19,184 NOT cap gain +$5,366 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$1.65/sh | -$331 cycle +$13 [-$884…-$455] | 84% surv 80% | -$13,399 NOT cap gain +$11,151 |
| budget: banked $344 debit $331 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $411/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,440/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +26% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 63% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,389/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,667 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 50.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 7.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-4,935 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.60 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $40-41.84 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.84 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $40.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $344 | $-21,397 | +$3,153 | +$334 |
| +2.5% | $41.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $144 | $-20,485 | +$4,065 | +$134 |
| +5% | $42.00 (1.3σ) | $-56 | $-19,573 | +$4,977 | -$66 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-2,886 | $-6,788 | +$17,762 | -$2,866 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$40 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$2 cycle +$374 [-$301…-$62] · 21% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$21,923 NOT cap gain +$2,627 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$3 cycle +$375 [-$460…-$93] · 17% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$19,710 NOT cap gain +$4,840 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$1.84/sh | -$369 cycle +$3 [-$1,001…-$485] | 85% surv 83% | -$12,853 NOT cap gain +$11,697 |
| budget: banked $372 debit $369 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $348/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,720/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +36% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 68% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,669/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,739 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 51.2% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 7.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-4,951 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $39.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-41.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $372 | $-21,925 | +$2,625 | +$362 |
| +2.5% | $40.49 (≤1σ, normal week) | $175 | $-21,025 | +$3,525 | +$164 |
| +5% | $41.48 (1.1σ) | $-23 | $-20,124 | +$4,426 | -$33 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-2,958 | $-6,860 | +$17,690 | -$2,938 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$39 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.03/sh | +$6 cycle +$422 [-$315…-$77] · 19% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$22,431 NOT cap gain +$2,119 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$41 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.02/sh | +$5 cycle +$421 [-$470…-$104] · 15% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$20,219 NOT cap gain +$4,331 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$48 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$1.95/sh | -$391 cycle +$25 [-$1,046…-$528] | 87% surv 85% | -$12,275 NOT cap gain +$12,275 |
| budget: banked $416 debit $391 (94% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$25 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $308/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,160/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +53% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 76% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,109/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,795 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 52.0% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 8.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-4,947 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.61 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $39-41.27 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $41.27 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $39.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $416 | $-22,437 | +$2,113 | +$406 |
| +2.5% | $39.97 (≤1σ, normal week) | $221 | $-21,548 | +$3,002 | +$211 |
| +5% | $40.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $26 | $-20,659 | +$3,891 | +$16 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-3,014 | $-6,916 | +$17,634 | -$2,994 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$9 cycle +$471 [-$304…-$77] · 18% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$22,938 NOT cap gain +$1,612 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$7 cycle +$469 [-$466…-$106] · 14% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$20,727 NOT cap gain +$3,823 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$50 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$2.23/sh | -$445 cycle +$17 [-$1,132…-$601] | 90% surv 89% | -$10,615 NOT cap gain +$13,935 |
| budget: banked $462 debit $445 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $223/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,620/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +69% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 85% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,569/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,849 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 52.7% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 8.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-4,942 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $38.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-40.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $462 | $-22,947 | +$1,603 | +$452 |
| +2.5% | $39.46 (≤1σ, normal week) | $270 | $-22,069 | +$2,481 | +$260 |
| +5% | $40.43 (≤1σ, normal week) | $77 | $-21,192 | +$3,358 | +$67 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-3,068 | $-6,970 | +$17,580 | -$3,048 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.06/sh | +$12 cycle +$532 [-$336…-$85] · 14% credit | 72% surv 53% | -$23,433 NOT cap gain +$1,117 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$9 cycle +$529 [-$506…-$122] · 11% credit | 74% surv 63% | -$21,223 NOT cap gain +$3,327 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$2.20/sh | -$440 cycle +$80 [-$1,185…-$619] | 90% surv 89% | -$11,109 NOT cap gain +$13,441 |
| budget: banked $520 debit $440 (85% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$80 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $219/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +91% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 95% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,149/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,891 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 53.3% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 8.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-4,935 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.62 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $38-40.73 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.73 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $38.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $520 | $-23,445 | +$1,105 | +$510 |
| +2.5% | $38.95 (≤1σ, normal week) | $330 | $-22,579 | +$1,971 | +$320 |
| +5% | $39.90 (≤1σ, normal week) | $140 | $-21,712 | +$2,838 | +$130 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-3,110 | $-7,012 | +$17,538 | -$3,090 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$15 cycle +$401 | 72% surv 53% | -$24,109 NOT cap gain +$441 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$40 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.05/sh | +$11 cycle +$397 | 74% surv 63% | -$21,900 NOT cap gain +$2,650 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$47 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$1.89/sh | -$379 cycle +$7 | 88% surv 86% | -$13,950 NOT cap gain +$10,600 |
| budget: banked $386 debit $379 (98% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $292/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,860/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +42% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 71% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,809/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$4,125 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 56.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 8.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (2 ct) | $-5,137 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $37.12 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-40.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $386 | $-24,124 | +$426 | +$376 |
| +2.5% | $38.44 (≤1σ, normal week) | $198 | $-23,280 | +$1,270 | +$188 |
| +5% | $39.38 (≤1σ, normal week) | $11 | $-22,425 | +$2,125 | +$1 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-3,344 | $-7,246 | +$17,304 | -$3,324 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$37 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$9 cycle +$304 | 72% surv 53% | -$24,201 NOT cap gain +$349 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$1 cycle +$296 | 74% surv 63% | -$22,552 NOT cap gain +$1,998 |
| SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$49 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$2.21/sh | -$221 cycle +$74 | 91% surv 90% | -$11,654 NOT cap gain +$12,896 |
| budget: banked $295 debit $221 (75% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $97/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,950/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,726/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($5,453/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,908/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$2,010 |
| … as % of IC ($7,300) | 27.5% |
| … as % of ML ($47,300) | 4.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-2,482 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $36.63 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $37-40.23 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $40.23 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $37.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $295 | $-24,210 | +$340 | +$290 |
| +2.5% | $37.92 (≤1σ, normal week) | $203 | $-23,841 | +$709 | +$198 |
| +5% | $38.85 (≤1σ, normal week) | $110 | $-22,905 | +$1,645 | +$105 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $56.15 (5.2σ) | $-1,620 | $-5,532 | +$19,018 | -$1,610 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$1.04/sh | +$12,992 cycle +$14,992 [+$9,636…+$14,834] · 97% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$76,756 NOT cap gain +$41,994 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$29 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.51/sh | +$6,412 cycle +$8,412 [+$1,527…+$8,547] · 82% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$59,860 NOT cap gain +$58,890 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$31 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$868 cycle +$2,868 [-$5,185…+$2,785] · 40% credit | 84% surv 79% | -$51,304 NOT cap gain +$67,446 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.06/sh | +$804 cycle +$2,804 [-$5,316…+$2,093] · 38% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$72,518 NOT cap gain +$46,232 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $20,000/mo |
| vs 50% target ($24,265/mo) | -18% |
| vs normal income ($48,529/mo) | 41% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $20,000/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$93,543 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 338.6% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 33.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.9 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-119,000 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.18 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.18 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (1.8σ) | $2,000 | $-89,749 | +$29,001 | +$1,625 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (2.1σ) | $-6,125 | $-93,291 | +$25,459 | -$6,500 |
| +5% | $27.30 (2.3σ) | $-14,250 | $-96,834 | +$21,916 | -$14,625 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.0σ) | $-169,375 | $-164,468 | -$45,718 | -$98,375 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (101 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$1.04/sh | +$10,498 cycle +$12,114 [+$7,418…+$12,416] · 95% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$79,563 NOT cap gain +$39,187 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$30 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.24/sh | +$2,458 cycle +$4,074 [-$2,600…+$4,605] · 60% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$57,076 NOT cap gain +$61,674 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$31 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$702 cycle +$2,318 [-$4,673…+$2,725] · 53% credit | 84% surv 79% | -$51,782 NOT cap gain +$66,968 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.06/sh | +$649 cycle +$2,265 [-$4,541…+$2,139] · 51% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$72,985 NOT cap gain +$45,765 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $16,160/mo |
| vs 50% target ($24,265/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($48,529/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $16,287/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$75,583 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 273.6% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 27.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (101 ct) | $-96,152 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $25.74 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $26-26.18 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $26.18 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $26.00 (1.8σ) | $1,616 | $-90,061 | +$28,689 | +$1,313 |
| +2.5% | $26.65 (2.1σ) | $-4,949 | $-92,043 | +$26,707 | -$5,252 |
| +5% | $27.30 (2.3σ) | $-11,514 | $-94,026 | +$24,724 | -$11,817 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.0σ) | $-136,855 | $-145,580 | -$26,830 | -$79,487 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (90 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.99/sh | +$8,865 cycle +$11,295 [+$6,061…+$10,075] · 94% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$87,398 NOT cap gain +$31,352 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$28 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.42/sh | +$3,779 cycle +$6,209 [-$344…+$5,150] · 73% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$69,008 NOT cap gain +$49,742 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$1,421 cycle +$3,851 [-$3,194…+$2,761] · 53% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$64,316 NOT cap gain +$54,434 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$163 cycle +$2,593 [-$4,583…+$1,130] · 38% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$79,674 NOT cap gain +$39,076 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$30 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.01/sh | -$121 cycle +$2,309 [-$5,087…+$1,129] · 38% credit | 84% surv 81% | -$58,808 NOT cap gain +$59,942 |
| budget: banked $2,430 debit $121 (5% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,309 cash · rolled 90 ct earn ≈ $14,568/mo while parked; 35 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $24,300/mo |
| vs 50% target ($24,265/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($48,529/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $24,485/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$75,361 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 272.8% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 27.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.6 mo |
| Surgical close (90 ct) | $-85,995 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.75 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $25-25.32 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $25.32 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $25.00 (1.3σ) | $2,430 | $-96,264 | +$22,486 | +$2,160 |
| +2.5% | $25.62 (1.6σ) | $-3,195 | $-97,482 | +$21,268 | -$3,465 |
| +5% | $26.25 (1.9σ) | $-8,820 | $-98,701 | +$20,049 | -$9,090 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.0σ) | $-129,960 | $-144,933 | -$26,183 | -$78,840 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (104 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.93/sh | +$9,691 cycle +$14,579 [+$5,711…+$10,490] · 93% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$91,207 NOT cap gain +$27,543 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.49/sh | +$5,083 cycle +$9,971 [-$648…+$5,834] · 72% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$75,863 NOT cap gain +$42,887 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.23/sh | +$2,404 cycle +$7,292 [-$2,821…+$2,634] · 53% credit | 78% surv 69% | -$85,592 NOT cap gain +$33,158 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.08/sh | +$809 cycle +$5,697 [-$5,821…+$1,210] · 33% credit | 82% surv 78% | -$69,562 NOT cap gain +$49,188 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$31 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.44/sh | -$4,533 cycle +$355 [-$12,458…-$4,486] | 89% surv 87% | -$53,754 NOT cap gain +$64,996 |
| budget: banked $4,888 debit $4,533 (93% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$355 cash · rolled 104 ct earn ≈ $9,841/mo while parked; 21 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $48,880/mo |
| vs 50% target ($24,265/mo) | +101% |
| vs normal income ($48,529/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $48,991/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$95,404 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 345.4% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 34.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.0 mo |
| Surgical close (104 ct) | $-99,424 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.76 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-24.53 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.53 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,888 | $-100,898 | +$17,852 | +$4,576 |
| +2.5% | $24.60 (1.1σ) | $-1,352 | $-102,908 | +$15,842 | -$1,664 |
| +5% | $25.20 (1.4σ) | $-7,592 | $-104,918 | +$13,832 | -$7,904 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.0σ) | $-158,496 | $-165,517 | -$46,767 | -$99,424 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (125 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$27 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$1.09/sh | +$13,686 cycle +$14,311 [+$11,837…+$17,093] · 98% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$70,387 NOT cap gain +$48,363 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.16/sh | +$1,984 cycle +$2,609 [-$1,664…+$6,149] · 70% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$44,513 NOT cap gain +$74,237 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.11/sh | +$1,409 cycle +$2,034 [-$2,814…+$4,314] · 61% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$66,238 NOT cap gain +$52,512 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($24,265/mo) | -74% |
| vs normal income ($48,529/mo) | 13% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$82,418 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 298.3% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 29.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.7 mo |
| Surgical close (125 ct) | $-120,125 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $26.73 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $27-27.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $27.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $27.00 (2.2σ) | $625 | $-84,074 | +$34,676 | +$250 |
| +2.5% | $27.67 (2.5σ) | $-7,812 | $-87,752 | +$30,998 | -$8,187 |
| +5% | $28.35 (2.8σ) | $-16,250 | $-91,431 | +$27,319 | -$16,625 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.0σ) | $-158,250 | $-153,343 | -$34,593 | -$87,250 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (84 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.96/sh | +$8,049 cycle +$10,485 [+$5,644…+$9,036] · 94% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$91,715 NOT cap gain +$27,035 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$28 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.37/sh | +$3,150 cycle +$5,586 [-$641…+$4,202] · 70% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$73,138 NOT cap gain +$45,612 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.26/sh | +$2,175 cycle +$4,611 [-$1,236…+$2,863] · 64% credit | 78% surv 68% | -$84,688 NOT cap gain +$34,062 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$984 cycle +$3,420 [-$3,221…+$1,973] · 44% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$68,254 NOT cap gain +$50,496 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$30 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.05/sh | -$441 cycle +$1,995 [-$4,880…+$457] · 30% credit | 85% surv 81% | -$62,629 NOT cap gain +$56,121 |
| budget: banked $2,436 debit $441 (18% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,995 cash · rolled 84 ct earn ≈ $12,742/mo while parked; 41 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $24,360/mo |
| vs 50% target ($24,265/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($48,529/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $24,577/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$74,369 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 269.2% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 26.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (84 ct) | $-80,808 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $24.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $24-24.91 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.91 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $24.50 (1.1σ) | $2,436 | $-99,765 | +$18,985 | +$2,184 |
| +2.5% | $25.11 (1.3σ) | $-2,709 | $-100,591 | +$18,159 | -$2,961 |
| +5% | $25.73 (1.6σ) | $-7,854 | $-101,418 | +$17,332 | -$8,106 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.0σ) | $-125,328 | $-143,709 | -$24,959 | -$77,616 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (40 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.91/sh | +$3,623 cycle +$6,103 [+$2,003…+$3,673] · 93% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$103,016 NOT cap gain +$15,734 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$26 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.44/sh | +$1,774 cycle +$4,254 [-$500…+$1,716] · 68% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$84,913 NOT cap gain +$33,837 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.20/sh | +$816 cycle +$3,296 [-$1,290…+$555] · 45% credit | 78% surv 69% | -$92,921 NOT cap gain +$25,829 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.04/sh | +$159 cycle +$2,639 [-$2,488…-$82] · 24% credit | 83% surv 78% | -$75,953 NOT cap gain +$42,797 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$31 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.57/sh | -$2,284 cycle +$196 [-$5,658…-$2,836] | 90% surv 89% | -$53,721 NOT cap gain +$65,029 |
| budget: banked $2,480 debit $2,284 (92% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$196 cash · rolled 40 ct earn ≈ $2,859/mo while parked; 85 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $24,800/mo |
| vs 50% target ($24,265/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($48,529/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $25,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$38,094 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 137.9% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 13.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (40 ct) | $-38,380 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $23.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $23-24.21 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $24.21 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $23.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,480 | $-106,639 | +$12,111 | +$2,360 |
| +2.5% | $24.09 (≤1σ, normal week) | $130 | $-104,847 | +$13,903 | +$10 |
| +5% | $24.68 (1.1σ) | $-2,220 | $-103,055 | +$15,695 | -$2,340 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.0σ) | $-62,360 | $-105,733 | +$13,017 | -$39,640 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (30 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$23 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.88/sh | +$2,639 cycle +$5,099 [+$1,279…+$2,483] · 91% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$107,514 NOT cap gain +$11,236 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$25 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.44/sh | +$1,312 cycle +$3,772 [-$694…+$957] · 60% credit | 77% surv 69% | -$92,415 NOT cap gain +$26,335 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$532 cycle +$2,992 [-$1,236…+$188] · 35% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$96,720 NOT cap gain +$22,030 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.00/sh | +$10 cycle +$2,470 [-$2,249…-$424] · 17% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$79,617 NOT cap gain +$39,133 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$30 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.48/sh | -$1,437 cycle +$1,023 [-$4,146…-$1,955] | 90% surv 89% | -$59,914 NOT cap gain +$58,836 |
| budget: banked $2,460 debit $1,437 (58% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,023 cash · rolled 30 ct earn ≈ $2,380/mo while parked; 95 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $24,600/mo |
| vs 50% target ($24,265/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($48,529/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $25,103/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$29,470 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 106.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 10.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (30 ct) | $-28,950 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $22.77 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $23-23.97 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $23.97 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $23.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,460 | $-110,154 | +$8,596 | +$2,370 |
| +2.5% | $23.57 (≤1σ, normal week) | $735 | $-107,825 | +$10,925 | +$645 |
| +5% | $24.15 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-990 | $-105,496 | +$13,254 | -$1,080 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.0σ) | $-47,670 | $-96,723 | +$22,027 | -$30,630 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (24 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.85/sh | +$2,050 cycle +$4,570 [+$623…+$1,707] · 88% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$111,551 NOT cap gain +$7,199 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$24 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.69/sh | +$1,647 cycle +$4,167 [-$215…+$1,192] · 71% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$99,052 NOT cap gain +$19,698 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$497 cycle +$3,017 [-$1,681…-$27] · 24% credit | 81% surv 75% | -$89,627 NOT cap gain +$29,123 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.15/sh | +$363 cycle +$2,883 [-$1,465…-$75] · 21% credit | 78% surv 70% | -$100,336 NOT cap gain +$18,414 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$30 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.50/sh | -$1,194 cycle +$1,326 [-$3,999…-$1,890] | 90% surv 89% | -$63,118 NOT cap gain +$55,632 |
| budget: banked $2,520 debit $1,194 (47% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,326 cash · rolled 24 ct earn ≈ $1,733/mo while parked; 101 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $25,200/mo |
| vs 50% target ($24,265/mo) | +4% |
| vs normal income ($48,529/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $25,735/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$24,224 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 87.7% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 8.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.5 mo |
| Surgical close (24 ct) | $-22,956 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $22.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $22-23.61 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $23.61 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $22.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,520 | $-113,601 | +$5,149 | +$2,448 |
| +2.5% | $23.06 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,170 | $-110,985 | +$7,765 | +$1,098 |
| +5% | $23.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-180 | $-108,369 | +$10,381 | -$252 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.0σ) | $-38,784 | $-91,245 | +$27,505 | -$25,152 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (19 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.83/sh | +$1,575 cycle +$4,121 | 70% surv 54% | -$114,311 NOT cap gain +$4,439 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.07/sh | +$124 cycle +$2,670 | 79% surv 72% | -$102,860 NOT cap gain +$15,890 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.12/sh | +$234 cycle +$2,780 | 81% surv 76% | -$92,175 NOT cap gain +$26,575 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$30 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.53/sh | -$1,015 cycle +$1,531 | 91% surv 90% | -$65,225 NOT cap gain +$53,525 |
| budget: banked $2,546 debit $1,015 (40% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,531 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $1,191/mo while parked; 106 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $25,460/mo |
| vs 50% target ($24,265/mo) | +5% |
| vs normal income ($48,529/mo) | 52% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $26,021/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,577 |
| … as % of IC ($27,625) | 70.9% |
| … as % of ML ($277,625) | 7.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (19 ct) | $-18,259 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $21.78 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $22-23.45 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $23.45 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $22.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,546 | $-115,886 | +$2,864 | +$2,489 |
| +2.5% | $22.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,501 | $-114,252 | +$4,498 | +$1,444 |
| +5% | $23.10 (≤1σ, normal week) | $456 | $-111,420 | +$7,330 | +$399 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.71 (8.0σ) | $-31,103 | $-86,404 | +$32,346 | -$20,311 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $11.60 | $16.07 | $0.02 | $0.02 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.40 OTM = 37.9% (5.9x a typical daily move). The $0.02 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$400 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $15.92 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) | $70.24 | $100.20 | $0.55 | $0.55 | HARVEST ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 26.76 OTM. The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,577 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $100.20 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12x $750C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $738.42 | $751.66 | $1.76 | $1.76 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.58 OTM = 1.6% (1.8x a typical daily move). The $1.76 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,927 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $751.66 (breakeven). 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 12x $750C at ~$1.29 ($1,545), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.
CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)
SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)
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| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $325.50 | $341.21 | $0.63 | $0.63 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.50 OTM. The $0.63 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,734 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $341.21 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $325.50 | $340.91 | $0.63 | $0.63 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.50 OTM. The $0.63 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$428 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $340.91 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20x $80.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $76.84 | $81.08 | $1.00 | $1.00 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.66 OTM. The $1.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,066 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $80.10 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $309.50 | $331.10 | $2.99 | $2.99 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.50 OTM. The $2.99 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$605 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $331.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $412.00 | $441.92 | $2.94 | $2.94 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.00 OTM. The $2.94 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$687 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $441.92 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $72C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $65.58 | $72.75 | $0.72 | $0.72 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.42 OTM. The $0.72 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$421 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $72.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $163.64 | $181.89 | $2.10 | $2.10 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.36 OTM. The $2.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,604 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $179.10 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $231.08 | $257.58 | $1.61 | $1.61 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.92 OTM. The $1.61 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,534 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $257.58 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $111.01 | $126.30 | $2.92 | $2.92 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.99 OTM. The $2.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$625 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $126.30 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $35.55 | $41.13 | $1.25 | $1.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.95 OTM = 13.9% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $1.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,162 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $40.30 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $35.55 | $41.08 | $1.25 | $1.25 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.95 OTM = 13.9% (1.7x a typical daily move). The $1.25 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,053 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~3-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $40.30 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1000C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $870.00 | $1,007.92 | $22.89 | $22.89 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 130.00 OTM. The $22.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,933 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,007.92 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $35C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $29.89 | $35.26 | $0.12 | $0.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.11 OTM. The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$311 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $35.26 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1020C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) | $870.00 | $1,026.25 | $18.05 | $18.05 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 150.00 OTM. The $18.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,240 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,026.25 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5x $342.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) | $325.50 | $344.61 | $1.37 | $1.37 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 17.00 OTM. The $1.37 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,028 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $344.61 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $637.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) | $595.00 | $654.07 | $13.06 | $13.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 42.50 OTM. The $13.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,955 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $654.07 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) | $194.88 | $211.74 | $5.08 | $5.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 15.12 OTM. The $5.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$846 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $211.74 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) | $163.64 | $187.68 | $2.89 | $2.89 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 21.36 OTM. The $2.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,108 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $187.68 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) | $92.65 | $107.00 | $0.35 | $0.35 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.35 OTM. The $0.35 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$476 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $107.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BMNR-LC10 | RetireInc:7291 | 50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) | $17.30 | $20.75 | $0.10 | $0.10 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.20 OTM. The $0.10 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,013 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $20.75 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) | $17.30 | $21.20 | $0.08 | $0.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.70 OTM. The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,125 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $21.20 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 88x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) | $17.30 | $21.20 | $0.08 | $0.08 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.70 OTM. The $0.08 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,320 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $21.20 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $207.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) | $168.07 | $210.57 | $1.00 | $1.00 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 39.43 OTM. The $1.00 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,510 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $210.57 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) | $95.36 | $113.05 | $1.88 | $1.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.64 OTM. The $1.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,200 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $113.05 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) | $95.36 | $113.08 | $1.88 | $1.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 14.64 OTM. The $1.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,028 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $113.08 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) | $163.64 | $198.70 | $2.67 | $2.67 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.36 OTM. The $2.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,095 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $198.70 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UAMY | RetireInc:7291 | 25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) | $5.33 | $7.35 | $0.12 | $0.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.67 OTM. The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$758 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $7.35 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (24d) | $373.64 | $396.32 | $2.90 | $2.90 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 16.36 OTM = 4.4% (3.3x a typical daily move). The $2.90 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,268 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $396.32 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (24d) | $417.26 | $505.00 | $24.92 | $24.92 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 57.74 OTM. The $24.92 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,985 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $505.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (52d) | $106.16 | $124.07 | $2.82 | $2.82 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 13.84 OTM = 13.0% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $2.82 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,022 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $124.07 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | Sell strike | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income @ strike | Normal income | Action | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| MARA-LC40 ↗ BORDERLINE 28%⚡ER 10d | Main:1299 | 200 | $11.60 | $14.48 | 24.8% | $14.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 99% survhist 100% LAST CLEAN | 2%hist 1% | $400 | $4,000/mo (12%) | $34,024/mo | sell 200x $14.50 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $14.48. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: selling the 🎯 banks ~$0.02/sh → floor ~$14.46 next cycle, ~$14.44 the cycle after. Whole ~10 Oct on the 🎯 income alone, never selling below the floor. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| CLSK ↗⚡ER 10d | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $13.87 | $16.66 | 20.1% | $17 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 98% survhist 100% LAST CLEAN | 5%hist 1% | $100 | $1,000/mo (18%) | $5,515/mo | sell 25x $17 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $16.66. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: selling the 🎯 banks ~$0.04/sh → floor ~$16.62 next cycle, ~$16.58 the cycle after. Whole ~26 Feb on the 🎯 income alone, never selling below the floor. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| RIOT ↗BBC⚡ER 3d | Joint:1782 | 50 | $21.40 | $20.03 | 0.0% | $24.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 91% survhist 100% ⚡ CROSSES EARNINGS | 17%hist 5% | $1,550 | $15,500/mo (77%) | $20,029/mo | sell 50x $24.50 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $20.03. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: banked so far already lowers the effective floor to $19.92; selling the 🎯 banks ~$0.31/sh → floor ~$19.61 next cycle, ~$19.30 the cycle after. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| INTC ↗ | Neville:0865 | 5 | $88.60 | $113.75 | 28.4% | $114 21 Aug 2026 (24d) · 90% survhist 99% LAST CLEAN | 22%hist 13% | $930 | $1,163/mo (75%) | $1,546/mo | sell 5x $114 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $113.75. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: banked so far already lowers the effective floor to $109.80; selling the 🎯 banks ~$1.86/sh → floor ~$107.94 next cycle, ~$106.08 the cycle after. Whole ~22 Jun on the 🎯 income alone, never selling below the floor. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| IREN-LC25-1299 ↗ BORDERLINE 23% | Main:1299 | 20 | $35.55 | $47.65 | 34.0% | $48 14 Aug 2026 (17d) · 89% survhist 99% | 23%hist 13% | $1,900 | $3,353/mo (23%) | $14,294/mo | sell 20x $48 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $47.65. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: selling the 🎯 banks ~$0.95/sh → floor ~$46.70 next cycle, ~$45.75 the cycle after. Whole ~5 Mar on the 🎯 income alone, never selling below the floor. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| IREN-LC25-1782 ↗ BORDERLINE 23% | Joint:1782 | 20 | $35.55 | $47.65 | 34.0% | $48 14 Aug 2026 (17d) · 89% survhist 99% | 23%hist 13% | $1,900 | $3,353/mo (23%) | $14,294/mo | sell 20x $48 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $47.65. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: selling the 🎯 banks ~$0.95/sh → floor ~$46.70 next cycle, ~$45.75 the cycle after. Whole ~5 Mar on the 🎯 income alone, never selling below the floor. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| IGV ↗ | Main:1299 | 12 | $91.00 | $89.78 | 0.0% | $94.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 86% survhist 99% | 28%hist 13% | $360 | $3,600/mo (94%) | $3,812/mo | sell 12x $94.50 CC SIM ▾ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
⚔ SIM FIGHT lens only the FIGHT income ladder on this shallow fortress, every rung tagged against the CC-SS floor $89.78. The 🎯 stays the safe pick; red rungs are fidelity, not advice. Ratchet path: banked so far already lowers the effective floor to $89.14; selling the 🎯 banks ~$0.30/sh → floor ~$88.84 next cycle, ~$88.54 the cycle after. (projection; the recommended CC-SS never credits banked cash)
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| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Why excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 62 | $17.30 | $30.29 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.9% below BE SS · 88 of 150 capped · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $17.30 | $44.46 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| ETHA | Main:1299 | 50 | $14.19 | $17.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 18.1% below BE SS |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $35.82 | $70.58 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MARA-LC20-1782 | Joint:1782 | 50 | $11.60 | $24.33 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max |
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250 | $11.60 | $26.40 | excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.1% below BE SS |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10 | $256.25 | 10x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| BMNR-LC10 | RetireInc:7291 | 50 | $17.13 | 50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) |
| BMNR-LC23-1299 | Main:1299 | 75 | $39.13 | 75x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) |
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $182.40 | 3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 20 | $93.40 | 20x $80C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (24d) |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (24d) |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| GOOG-LC310 | Joint:1782 | 5 | $392.50 | 5x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| GOOG-LC340 | Neville:0865 | 5 | $398.00 | 5x $342C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $35C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200 | $22.69 | 200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)] |
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1 | $362.90 | 1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $638C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 5x $1000C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 2x $1020C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5 | $114.54 | 5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) |
| NOW | Main:1299 | 10 | $108.93 | 10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (52d) |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 5x $208C 7 Aug 2026 (10d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 6x $72C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) |
| SPY | Neville:0865 | 12 | $764.00 | 12x $750C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| UAMY | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $12.45 | 25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 130 | 55% | 72% | +16pp |
| 60-70% | 196 | 64% | 72% | +8pp |
| 70-80% | 259 | 76% | 96% | +20pp |
| 80-90% | 305 | 84% | 96% | +12pp |
| 90-100% | 528 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 28% touch rate over 1418 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 105 real buyback(s) recorded · 39 roll(s), net +$1.18/sh avg.
💸 What a touch actually costs, over 39 real rolls: buyback $4.31/sh, replacement credit financed 127% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $1.18/sh (27 of 39 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.