FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s)  |  2 deep drawdown (FIGHT)  |  7 underwater (not deep DD)  |  6 skipped (CSV)  |  0 uncapped above water  |  32 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $27,100/mo (50% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $19,626/mo ⚡ $2,800/mo of that is earnings-blocked (1 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $1,283,420 locked in if all 25 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 1 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.

GENERATED2026-07-28 11:53

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped   every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick  |  click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes  |  fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.
POSITIONINCOME LADDER  ·  SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST
TUNEDRECOVERY
FortressCtPriceCC-SS🛡 Safe yield33% normal50% normal100% normalTunedBankedCap @ CC-SS↑ whole
ENPH ↗⚡ER TMRW
RetireInc:7291 · This Fri
10$37.51$60.05
10 × $4810d
$380 cyc · $1,140/mo
91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5%
8 × $48
$200 cyc · $2,000/mo
96% survhist 100% · T:8%hist 1%
🎯⚡ 8 × $47
$280 cyc · $2,800/mo
95% survhist 100% · T:11%hist 5%
10 × $45
$590 cyc · $5,900/mo
90% survhist 100% · T:20%hist 13%
S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×
$2,164-$10,162 (139.2% IC)60.1%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES   known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗⚡ER 8d
Main:1299 · This Fri
125$22.17$33.64
125 × $26
$2,000 cyc · $20,000/mo
95% survhist 100% · T:10%hist 1%
101 × $26
$1,616 cyc · $16,160/mo
95% survhist 100% · T:10%hist 1%
🎯 90 × $25
$2,430 cyc · $24,300/mo
90% survhist 99% · T:21%hist 13%
104 × $24
$4,888 cyc · $48,880/mo
80% survhist 99% · T:40%hist 28%
S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×
$879-$75,361 (272.8% IC)51.8%
TOTAL (2)135
following every 🎯
$2,710 cyc · $27,100/mo
$2,380 cyc · $21,140/mo$1,816 cyc · $18,160/mo$2,710 cyc · $27,100/mo$5,478 cyc · $54,780/mo$3,043-$85,524

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 33 active short call(s)   2 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

FortressAcctCallSpotBreakevenMarkTime valueStatusAction
MARA-LC20-1299Main:1299200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$11.60$16.07$0.02$0.02HARVEST ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
CRWVNeville:08655x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)$70.24$100.20$0.55$0.55HARVEST ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
SPYNeville:086512x $750C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$738.42$751.66$1.76$1.76OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GOOG-LC300Neville:086515x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$325.50$341.21$0.63$0.63OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GOOG-LC310Joint:17825x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$325.50$340.91$0.63$0.63OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COPXJoint:178220x $80.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$76.84$81.08$1.00$1.00OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MDBNeville:08651x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$309.50$331.10$2.99$2.99OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
APPRetireInc:72911x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$412.00$441.92$2.94$2.94OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
RKLBRetireInc:72916x $72C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$65.58$72.75$0.72$0.72OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC500Main:129925x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$163.64$181.89$2.10$2.10OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
AMZNJoint:178210x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$231.08$257.58$1.61$1.61OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
SPCXNeville:08655x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$111.01$126.30$2.92$2.92OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IREN-LC45Neville:086520x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$35.55$41.13$1.25$1.25OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
IREN-LC50RetireInc:729120x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$35.55$41.08$1.25$1.25OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MU-LC880Main:12995x $1000C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$870.00$1,007.92$22.89$22.89OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
HIMSMain:129915x $35C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$29.89$35.26$0.12$0.12OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MU-LC970Neville:08652x $1020C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)$870.00$1,026.25$18.05$18.05OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GOOG-LC340Neville:08655x $342.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)$325.50$344.61$1.37$1.37OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
METAMain:12993x $637.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)$595.00$654.07$13.06$13.06OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
NVDANeville:08655x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)$194.88$211.74$5.08$5.08OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC165Main:12998x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)$163.64$187.68$2.89$2.89OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
NEMMain:12995x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)$92.65$107.00$0.35$0.35OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
BMNR-LC10RetireInc:729150x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)$17.30$20.75$0.10$0.10OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
BMNR-LC23-1299Main:129975x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)$17.30$21.20$0.08$0.08OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
BMNR-LC23-1782Joint:178288x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)$17.30$21.20$0.08$0.08OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
QCOMRetireInc:72915x $207.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)$168.07$210.57$1.00$1.00OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MSTR-LC125RetireInc:72914x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)$95.36$113.05$1.88$1.88OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
MSTR-LC180Joint:178210x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)$95.36$113.08$1.88$1.88OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
COIN-LC145RetireInc:72913x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)$163.64$198.70$2.67$2.67OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
UAMYRetireInc:729125x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)$5.33$7.35$0.12$0.12OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
GLDMain:129910x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)$373.64$396.32$2.90$2.90OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
DELLRetireInc:72913x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)$417.26$505.00$24.92$24.92OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸
NOWMain:129910x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (52d)$106.16$124.07$2.82$2.82OK ▸🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown   sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

FortressAcctCtPriceCC-SS↑ wholeSell strikeTouch oddsPer cycleIncome @ strikeNormal incomeAction
MARA-LC40 ↗ BORDERLINE 28%⚡ER 10dMain:1299200$11.60$14.4824.8%$14.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 99% survhist 100% LAST CLEAN2%hist 1%$400$4,000/mo (12%)$34,024/mosell 200x $14.50 CC SIM ▾
CLSK ↗⚡ER 10dRetireInc:729125$13.87$16.6620.1%$17 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 98% survhist 100% LAST CLEAN5%hist 1%$100$1,000/mo (18%)$5,515/mosell 25x $17 CC SIM ▾
RIOT ↗BBC⚡ER 3dJoint:178250$21.40$20.030.0%$24.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 91% survhist 100% ⚡ CROSSES EARNINGS17%hist 5%$1,550$15,500/mo (77%)$20,029/mosell 50x $24.50 CC SIM ▾
INTC ↗Neville:08655$88.60$113.7528.4%$114 21 Aug 2026 (24d) · 90% survhist 99% LAST CLEAN22%hist 13%$930$1,163/mo (75%)$1,546/mosell 5x $114 CC SIM ▾
IREN-LC25-1299 ↗ BORDERLINE 23%Main:129920$35.55$47.6534.0%$48 14 Aug 2026 (17d) · 89% survhist 99%23%hist 13%$1,900$3,353/mo (23%)$14,294/mosell 20x $48 CC SIM ▾
IREN-LC25-1782 ↗ BORDERLINE 23%Joint:178220$35.55$47.6534.0%$48 14 Aug 2026 (17d) · 89% survhist 99%23%hist 13%$1,900$3,353/mo (23%)$14,294/mosell 20x $48 CC SIM ▾
IGV ↗Main:129912$91.00$89.780.0%$94.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 86% survhist 99%28%hist 13%$360$3,600/mo (94%)$3,812/mosell 12x $94.50 CC SIM ▾

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 6 fortress slice(s)   these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

FortressAcctCtPriceBE SSWhy excluded
BMNR-LC23-1782Joint:178262$17.30$30.29excluded by CSV (Skip) · 42.9% below BE SS · 88 of 150 capped · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25Main:129950$17.30$44.46excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHAMain:129950$14.19$17.33excluded by CSV (Skip) · 18.1% below BE SS
IBITJoint:178250$35.82$70.58excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1782Joint:178250$11.60$24.33excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.3% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25Neville:0865250$11.60$26.40excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.1% below BE SS
CAPPED: 32 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope
FortressAcctCtBE SSActive short calls
AMZNJoint:178210$256.2510x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
APPRetireInc:72911$588.001x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
BMNR-LC10RetireInc:729150$17.1350x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
BMNR-LC23-1299Main:129975$39.1375x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
COIN-LC145RetireInc:72913$182.403x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)
COIN-LC165Main:12998$210.908x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
COIN-LC500Main:129925$563.0025x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
COPXJoint:178220$93.4020x $80C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
CRWVNeville:08655$125.455x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
DELLRetireInc:72913$398.003x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)
GLDMain:129910$456.0010x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)
GOOG-LC300Neville:086515$373.0015x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
GOOG-LC310Joint:17825$392.505x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340Neville:08655$398.005x $342C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
HIMSMain:129915$17.4715x $35C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
IREN-LC45Neville:086520$56.5020x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
IREN-LC50RetireInc:729120$63.4320x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
MARA-LC20-1299Main:1299200$22.69200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)]
MDBNeville:08651$362.901x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
METAMain:12993$601.503x $638C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
MSTR-LC125RetireInc:72914$161.004x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)
MSTR-LC180Joint:178210$233.0010x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880Main:12995$1,028.605x $1000C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
MU-LC970Neville:08652$1,220.002x $1020C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
NEMMain:12995$114.545x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
NOWMain:129910$108.9310x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (52d)
NVDANeville:08655$199.605x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
QCOMRetireInc:72915$224.005x $208C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
RKLBRetireInc:72916$141.556x $72C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
SPCXNeville:08655$186.005x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
SPYNeville:086512$764.0012x $750C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
UAMYRetireInc:729125$12.4525x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 1418 of 1759 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?
Predicted survivalNAvg predictedRealized OTM rateGap
0-60%13055%72%+16pp
60-70%19664%72%+8pp
70-80%25976%96%+20pp
80-90%30584%96%+12pp
90-100%52894%100%+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 28% touch rate over 1418 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 105 real buyback(s) recorded · 39 roll(s), net +$1.18/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 39 real rolls: buyback $4.31/sh, replacement credit financed 127% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $1.18/sh (27 of 39 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all  |  2026-07-28 11:53