FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

47 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 5 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 4 underwater (not deep DD) | 6 skipped (CSV) | 0 uncapped above water | 32 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $43,320/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $30,902/mo ⚡ $2,800/mo of that is earnings-blocked (1 row(s))
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $937,601 locked in if all 21 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard

TUNE PICKSTouch ≤anySurv ≥anyCyc ≥floorsizing rulewhat-if lens only: the 🎯 picks, ladder, totals and panels never move. Tuned = the SAFEST strike meeting your gates (the engine's own objective at your floor), sized to the cycle target. The S/T/C presets under each Tuned cell override these sliders for that row only; every tuned pick opens its own decision panel.

POSITION				INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				TUNED	RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Tuned	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
ENPH ↗⚡ER TMRW RetireInc:7291 · This Fri	10	$37.55	$57.87	10 × $4810d $380 cyc · $1,140/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5%	8 × $48 $200 cyc · $2,000/mo 96% survhist 100% · T:8%hist 1%	🎯⚡ 8 × $47 $280 cyc · $2,800/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:11%hist 5%	10 × $45 $590 cyc · $5,900/mo 90% survhist 100% · T:21%hist 13%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,164	-$8,418 (115.3% IC)	54.1%
INTC ↗ Neville:0865 · This Fri	5	$88.35	$114.64	5 × $99 $625 cyc · $6,250/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:19%hist 5%	5 × $104 $275 cyc · $2,750/mo 97% survhist 100% · T:7%hist 1%	🎯 5 × $102 $385 cyc · $3,850/mo 95% survhist 100% · T:10%hist 5%	5 × $98 $740 cyc · $7,400/mo 89% survhist 99% · T:23%hist 13%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$2,071	-$5,935 (40.9% IC)	29.8%
IREN-LC25-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · This Fri	20	$35.50	$47.37	20 × $42 $1,000 cyc · $10,000/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5%	20 × $44.50 $480 cyc · $4,800/mo 96% survhist 100% · T:8%hist 1%	🎯 20 × $43 $740 cyc · $7,400/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:13%hist 5%	17 × $40 $1,496 cyc · $14,960/mo 83% survhist 99% · T:35%hist 18%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$8,004 (25.0% IC)	33.4%
IREN-LC25-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · This Fri	20	$35.50	$47.37	20 × $42 $1,000 cyc · $10,000/mo 91% survhist 100% · T:18%hist 5%	20 × $44.50 $480 cyc · $4,800/mo 96% survhist 100% · T:8%hist 1%	🎯 20 × $43 $740 cyc · $7,400/mo 93% survhist 100% · T:13%hist 5%	17 × $40 $1,496 cyc · $14,960/mo 83% survhist 99% · T:35%hist 18%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	-	-$8,004 (25.0% IC)	33.4%
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗⚡ER 8d Main:1299 · This Fri	125	$22.26	$33.31	125 × $26 $2,000 cyc · $20,000/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:11%hist 5%	91 × $26 $1,456 cyc · $14,560/mo 94% survhist 100% · T:11%hist 5%	🎯 81 × $25 $2,187 cyc · $21,870/mo 89% survhist 99% · T:23%hist 13%	93 × $24 $4,371 cyc · $43,710/mo 79% survhist 96% · T:43%hist 28%	— S≥708090T≤253040C≥2505001k×	$879	-$65,153 (235.8% IC)	49.7%
TOTAL (5)	180	following every 🎯 $4,332 cyc · $43,320/mo		$5,005 cyc · $47,390/mo	$2,891 cyc · $28,910/mo	$4,332 cyc · $43,320/mo	$8,693 cyc · $86,930/mo		$5,115	-$95,514

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.06/sh	+$59 cycle +$439 [-$440…+$618] · 55% credit	69% surv 56%	-$14,537 NOT cap gain +$7,633
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.36/sh	-$361 cycle +$19 [-$879…+$126] · 31% credit	74% surv 64%	-$13,637 NOT cap gain +$8,533
budget: banked $380 debit $361 (95% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$19 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,746/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.36/sh	-$365 cycle +$15 [-$827…+$114] · 30% credit	67% surv 53%	-$15,258 NOT cap gain +$6,912

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (1.6σ)	$380	$-14,893	+$7,277	+$330
+2.5%	$49.20 (1.8σ)	$-820	$-15,301	+$6,869	-$870
+5%	$50.40 (2.0σ)	$-2,020	$-15,709	+$6,461	-$2,070
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-7,770	$-17,664	+$4,506	-$7,670

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.46/sh	+$369 cycle +$569 [-$577…+$892] · 59% credit	69% surv 54%	-$14,727 NOT cap gain +$7,443
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.26/sh	-$204 cycle -$4 [-$1,034…+$258] · 40% credit	70% surv 53%	-$15,267 NOT cap gain +$6,903
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.24/sh	-$194 cycle +$6 [-$1,278…+$280] · 38% credit	73% surv 62%	-$13,970 NOT cap gain +$8,200
budget: banked $200 debit $194 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $3,837/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.36	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.36	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (2.9σ)	$200	$-15,063	+$7,107	+$160
+2.5%	$49.20 (3.3σ)	$-760	$-15,231	+$6,939	-$800
+5%	$50.40 (3.6σ)	$-1,720	$-15,399	+$6,771	-$1,760
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-6,320	$-16,234	+$5,936	-$6,240

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$23 cycle +$303 [-$905…+$444] · 44% credit	69% surv 56%	-$15,323 NOT cap gain +$6,847
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$47	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.22/sh	-$173 cycle +$107 [-$890…+$216] · 40% credit	70% surv 53%	-$15,816 NOT cap gain +$6,354
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.20/sh	-$161 cycle +$119 [-$1,091…+$254] · 40% credit	73% surv 62%	-$14,517 NOT cap gain +$7,653
budget: banked $280 debit $161 (57% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$119 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $3,796/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.00 (2.7σ)	$280	$-15,643	+$6,527	+$240
+2.5%	$48.17 (3.0σ)	$-660	$-15,807	+$6,363	-$700
+5%	$49.35 (3.3σ)	$-1,600	$-15,972	+$6,198	-$1,640
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-7,040	$-16,954	+$5,216	-$6,960

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$26 cycle +$616 [-$1,436…+$425] · 42% credit	72% surv 60%	-$15,680 NOT cap gain +$6,490
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$45	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.14/sh	-$143 cycle +$447 [-$1,359…+$246] · 39% credit	70% surv 53%	-$16,806 NOT cap gain +$5,364
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.56/sh	-$559 cycle +$31 [-$2,179…-$204] · 17% credit	75% surv 66%	-$15,275 NOT cap gain +$6,895
budget: banked $590 debit $559 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,043/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-45.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.00 (2.1σ)	$590	$-16,663	+$5,507	+$540
+2.5%	$46.12 (2.4σ)	$-535	$-17,045	+$5,125	-$585
+5%	$47.25 (2.7σ)	$-1,660	$-17,428	+$4,742	-$1,710
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-10,560	$-20,454	+$1,716	-$10,460

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$52	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.42/sh	-$424 cycle -$364	70% surv 53%	-$12,997 NOT cap gain +$9,173
Max even-money escape in the band	~$52	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.27/sh	+$274 cycle +$334	69% surv 54%	-$12,332 NOT cap gain +$9,838
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $51.48	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $51-52.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $52.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$52.00 (4.1σ)	$60	$-12,573	+$9,597	+$10
+2.5%	$53.30 (4.4σ)	$-1,240	$-13,015	+$9,155	-$1,290
+5%	$54.60 (4.8σ)	$-2,540	$-13,457	+$8,713	-$2,590
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-4,090	$-13,984	+$8,186	-$3,990

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$51	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.32/sh	+$324 cycle +$394 [-$1,486…+$1,165] · 64% credit	69% surv 54%	-$12,932 NOT cap gain +$9,238
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$51	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.38/sh	-$380 cycle -$310 [-$2,010…+$347] · 41% credit	70% surv 53%	-$13,603 NOT cap gain +$8,567

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $50.49	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-51.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $51.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$51.00 (3.8σ)	$70	$-13,223	+$8,947	+$20
+2.5%	$52.27 (4.1σ)	$-1,205	$-13,656	+$8,514	-$1,255
+5%	$53.55 (4.5σ)	$-2,480	$-14,090	+$8,080	-$2,530
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-5,080	$-14,974	+$7,196	-$4,980

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$50	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.37/sh	+$372 cycle +$472 [-$399…+$1,319] · 63% credit	69% surv 54%	-$13,514 NOT cap gain +$8,656
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.34/sh	-$337 cycle -$237 [-$1,037…+$482] · 40% credit	70% surv 53%	-$14,190 NOT cap gain +$7,980

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $49.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-50.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $50.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$50.00 (3.5σ)	$100	$-13,853	+$8,317	+$50
+2.5%	$51.25 (3.9σ)	$-1,150	$-14,278	+$7,892	-$1,200
+5%	$52.50 (4.2σ)	$-2,400	$-14,703	+$7,467	-$2,450
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-6,050	$-15,944	+$6,226	-$5,950

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$49	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.42/sh	+$418 cycle +$568 [-$782…+$1,051] · 59% credit	69% surv 54%	-$14,078 NOT cap gain +$8,092
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.14/sh	-$136 cycle +$14 [-$1,508…+$466] · 46% credit	72% surv 60%	-$13,642 NOT cap gain +$8,528
budget: banked $150 debit $136 (90% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,048/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$49	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.30/sh	-$295 cycle -$145 [-$1,394…+$259] · 42% credit	70% surv 53%	-$14,758 NOT cap gain +$7,412

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $48.51	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $49-49.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $49.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$49.00 (3.2σ)	$150	$-14,463	+$7,707	+$100
+2.5%	$50.22 (3.6σ)	$-1,075	$-14,879	+$7,291	-$1,125
+5%	$51.45 (3.9σ)	$-2,300	$-15,296	+$6,874	-$2,350
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-7,000	$-16,894	+$5,276	-$6,900

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.01/sh	+$7 cycle +$267 [-$1,352…+$687] · 49% credit	69% surv 56%	-$15,039 NOT cap gain +$7,131
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.24/sh	-$236 cycle +$24 [-$1,335…+$392] · 46% credit	70% surv 53%	-$15,579 NOT cap gain +$6,591
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.22/sh	-$221 cycle +$39 [-$1,597…+$433] · 46% credit	73% surv 62%	-$14,277 NOT cap gain +$7,893
budget: banked $260 debit $221 (85% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$39 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,771/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.50 (2.8σ)	$260	$-15,343	+$6,827	+$210
+2.5%	$48.69 (3.1σ)	$-927	$-15,747	+$6,423	-$977
+5%	$49.88 (3.5σ)	$-2,115	$-16,150	+$6,020	-$2,165
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-8,390	$-18,284	+$3,886	-$8,290

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$50 cycle +$330 [-$1,343…+$655] · 51% credit	69% surv 56%	-$15,636 NOT cap gain +$6,534
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.20/sh	-$198 cycle +$82 [-$1,284…+$356] · 45% credit	70% surv 53%	-$16,181 NOT cap gain +$5,989
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.18/sh	-$181 cycle +$99 [-$1,591…+$418] · 44% credit	73% surv 62%	-$14,877 NOT cap gain +$7,293
budget: banked $280 debit $181 (65% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$99 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,719/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.03	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 33 active short call(s) 1 watch · 3 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

MDB

Neville:0865

1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$309.50

$331.10

$5.13

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MARA-LC20-1299

Main:1299

200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$11.57

$16.07

$0.01

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NEM

Main:1299

5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$92.33

$107.00

$0.18

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$69.75

$100.20

$0.33

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPY

Neville:0865

12x $750C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$737.48

$751.66

$1.37

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$324.85

$341.21

$1.21

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$324.85

$340.91

$1.21

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COPX

Joint:1782

20x $80.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$76.84

$81.08

$0.78

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

APP

RetireInc:7291

1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$414.00

$441.92

$5.90

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

RKLB

RetireInc:7291

6x $72C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$65.30

$72.75

$1.13

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMZN

Joint:1782

10x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$231.05

$257.58

$1.33

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC500

Main:1299

25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$163.00

$181.89

$3.65

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$110.76

$126.30

$2.03

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC45

Neville:0865

20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$35.43

$41.13

$0.79

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC50

RetireInc:7291

20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$35.43

$41.08

$0.79

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1000C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$863.29

$1,007.92

$11.03

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

HIMS

Main:1299

15x $35C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$29.89

$35.26

$0.12

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1020C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)

$863.29

$1,026.25

$7.80

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC340

Neville:0865

5x $342.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$324.85

$344.61

$2.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $637.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$594.00

$654.07

$12.32

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Neville:0865

5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$194.37

$211.74

$1.48

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$163.00

$187.68

$4.64

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC10

RetireInc:7291

50x $20.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$17.28

$20.75

$0.31

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC23-1299

Main:1299

75x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$17.28

$21.20

$0.22

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

BMNR-LC23-1782

Joint:1782

88x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$17.28

$21.20

$0.22

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $207.5C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)

$168.07

$210.57

$1.05

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

$95.35

$113.05

$3.19

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

$95.35

$113.08

$3.19

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC145

RetireInc:7291

3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

$163.00

$198.70

$4.10

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UAMY

RetireInc:7291

25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

$5.33

$7.35

$0.13

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)

$371.28

$396.32

$3.13

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)

$416.68

$505.00

$19.88

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (52d)

$106.16

$124.07

$4.50

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown sell the richest CC still ≥80% survival at/above CC-SS (not a blind CC-SS sale), sorted by touch odds

Fortress

Acct

Price

CC-SS

↑ whole

Sell strike

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income @ strike

Normal income

Action

MARA-LC40 ↗ BORDERLINE 25%⚡ER 10d

Main:1299

200

$11.57

$14.68

26.9%

$15 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 99+% survhist 100% LAST CLEAN

0%hist 1%

$200

$2,000/mo (5%)

$37,765/mo

sell 200x $15 CC SIM ▾

CLSK ↗ BORDERLINE 22%⚡ER 10d

RetireInc:7291

$13.84

$17.10

23.6%

$18 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 99+% survhist 100% LAST CLEAN

0%hist 1%

$25

$250/mo (5%)

$5,515/mo

sell 25x $18 CC SIM ▾

IGV ↗

Main:1299

$91.14

$87.20

0.0%

$94.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 85% survhist 99%

30%hist 13%

$360

$3,600/mo (102%)

$3,515/mo

sell 12x $94.50 CC SIM ▾

RIOT ↗BBC⚡ER 3d

Joint:1782

$21.40

$20.65

0.0%

$23.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · 85% survhist 99% ⚡ CROSSES EARNINGS

31%hist 18%

$2,700

$27,000/mo (135%)

$20,029/mo

sell 50x $23.50 CC SIM ▾

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 6 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	62	$17.28	$30.29	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 43.0% below BE SS · 88 of 150 capped · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$17.28	$44.46	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.1% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
ETHA	Main:1299	50	$14.17	$17.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 18.2% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$35.82	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 49.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC20-1782	Joint:1782	50	$11.57	$24.33	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
MARA-LC25	Neville:0865	250	$11.57	$26.40	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 56.2% below BE SS

CAPPED: 32 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	10	$256.25	10x $255C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $435C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
BMNR-LC10	RetireInc:7291	50	$17.13	50x $20C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$39.13	75x $21C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
COIN-LC145	RetireInc:7291	3	$182.40	3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $185C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $180C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $80C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $475C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $390C 21 Aug 2026 (24d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $340C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $342C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $35C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $40C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
MARA-LC20-1299	Main:1299	200	$22.69	200x $16C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [CC_AMBIGUOUS(qty 200 matches 2 fortresses)]
MDB	Neville:0865	1	$362.90	1x $325C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $638C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $110C 14 Aug 2026 (17d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1000C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1020C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $106C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $120C 18 Sep 2026 (52d)
NVDA	Neville:0865	5	$199.60	5x $210C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $208C 7 Aug 2026 (10d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $72C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $125C 31 Jul 2026 (3d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $750C 31 Jul 2026 (3d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
UAMY	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.45	25x $7C 14 Aug 2026 (17d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 1418 of 1768 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	130	55%	72%	+16pp
60-70%	196	64%	72%	+8pp
70-80%	259	76%	96%	+20pp
80-90%	305	84%	96%	+12pp
90-100%	528	94%	100%	+6pp

Touch odds: predicted 39% avg vs realized 28% touch rate over 1418 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 105 real buyback(s) recorded · 39 roll(s), net +$1.18/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 39 real rolls: buyback $4.31/sh, replacement credit financed 127% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $1.18/sh (27 of 39 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-07-28 12:24

Gross FIGHT income	$1,140/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-58%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,019/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,493
… as % of IC ($7,300)	130.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	20.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,385

Gross FIGHT income	$2,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-26%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,896/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,698
… as % of IC ($7,300)	105.5%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	16.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-17,824

Gross FIGHT income	$2,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,696/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,418
… as % of IC ($7,300)	115.3%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-17,772

Gross FIGHT income	$5,900/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	+119%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	110% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,779/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,283
… as % of IC ($7,300)	168.3%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	26.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,215

Gross FIGHT income	$600/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-78%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$479/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,813
… as % of IC ($7,300)	79.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	12.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,215

Gross FIGHT income	$700/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-74%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	13% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$579/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,803
… as % of IC ($7,300)	93.2%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	14.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,305

Gross FIGHT income	$1,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-63%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$879/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,773
… as % of IC ($7,300)	106.5%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	16.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,215

Gross FIGHT income	$1,500/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-44%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	28% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,379/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,723
… as % of IC ($7,300)	119.5%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	18.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,270

Gross FIGHT income	$2,600/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-3%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	48% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,479/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,113
… as % of IC ($7,300)	138.5%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	21.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,380

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,093
… as % of IC ($7,300)	152.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	23.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,355

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.50 (2.5σ)	$280	$-15,983	+$6,187	+$230
+2.5%	$47.66 (2.8σ)	$-882	$-16,378	+$5,792	-$932
+5%	$48.83 (3.2σ)	$-2,045	$-16,774	+$5,396	-$2,095
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-9,370	$-19,264	+$2,906	-$9,270

Gross FIGHT income	$2,960/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	+10%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,856/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,202
… as % of IC ($7,300)	126.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	19.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-17,792

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.54	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.44	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.44	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.00 (2.4σ)	$296	$-16,287	+$5,883	+$256
+2.5%	$47.15 (2.7σ)	$-624	$-16,448	+$5,722	-$664
+5%	$48.30 (3.0σ)	$-1,544	$-16,609	+$5,561	-$1,584
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-7,824	$-17,738	+$4,432	-$7,744

Gross FIGHT income	$2,700/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,614/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,154
… as % of IC ($7,300)	98.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	15.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-13,398

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-46.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.50 (2.2σ)	$270	$-16,633	+$5,537	+$240
+2.5%	$46.64 (2.6σ)	$-412	$-16,565	+$5,605	-$442
+5%	$47.77 (2.9σ)	$-1,095	$-16,496	+$5,674	-$1,125
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-6,120	$-16,054	+$6,116	-$6,060

Gross FIGHT income	$3,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	+11%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	56% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,923/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,386
… as % of IC ($7,300)	87.5%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	13.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-11,122

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-45.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$44.50 (2.0σ)	$300	$-17,258	+$4,912	+$275
+2.5%	$45.61 (2.3σ)	$-256	$-17,080	+$5,090	-$281
+5%	$46.73 (2.6σ)	$-813	$-16,902	+$5,268	-$838
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-5,525	$-15,469	+$6,701	-$5,475

Gross FIGHT income	$2,880/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,812/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,261
… as % of IC ($7,300)	72.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	11.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-8,924

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.56	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-44.86	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $44.86	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.